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If you’ve already seen my just-released video, The Next Black Swans, the best place to give me your feedback is in the comment section here.
If you missed my video or would like to view it again, click here, and it will start playing on your screen right away.
Then, be sure to tell me what YOU think the next major Black Swan event will be by going here.
Some believe it will be another massive financial failure like the Lehman Brothers collapse of September 15, 2008.
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Others think it will be another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil that’s worse than 9/11.
Many are now talking about an outbreak of violent attacks on U.S. law enforcement officers and facilities like we just saw in Dallas last Thursday.
There are even some observers who fear the repetition of what happened in Dallas on November 22, 1963 — a major assassination or some similar bombshell that throws the entire nation into turmoil.
Tell me what you think, and let the debate begin!Â
Just bear in mind that, beyond trying to divine the precise nature of future events, there are three equally urgent questions:
What are the key megatrends of our time that are making these kinds of shocking events happen with increasing frequency?
What impact will they have on your investments?
And what steps can you take right now to prepare?
I provide the answers in my video. And after I get your feedback, I will provide more specific responses in upcoming articles.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
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I believe another false flag event will occur which will support the continuation of the police state we are now living in. George Orwell’s 1984 is here & now.
I read 1984 a few years ago, remembering the book from high school. WOW. Technology and media have us exposed to everything. I won’t be surprised to know our TV and FB are actually recoreding our lives
We just had it: 2 bailiffs and one prisoner…..
I understand, John. You’re talking about events, which, despite the appearance of enemy attacks, are actually covert government operations designed to shock the public into accepting more aggressive foreign military actions or more intrusive domestic controls.
Some people believe that even Pearl Harbor and 9/11 were false flag events, or at least that the government had advance knowledge of the attacks and deliberately chose to ignore it.
In my humble opinion, there are three sad aspects to these theories: They often villainize government officials dedicated to our protection. They can be a huge distraction from the urgent task of self-defense. And, sometimes (but rarely), they are true.
But the historical examples of Black Swan events in my video are not false flags. Nor do I think the next major Black Swans will be either.
By definition, a black swan is unpredictable.
if you could think of it, it isn’t predictable. It never occurred before, and couldn’t be predicted. Lehman Bros, 9/11, and Dallas never previously occurred, and couldn’t be conceived of.
If you can conceive of it, it isn’t a black swan.If it previously occurred, it isn’t a black swan.
Of all these things, many can be predicted by astrology. I have personally predicted many of these things including Market Crashes and 9/11.
“The US will be at WAR around the weekend of September 7-8” [2001]
This was in my newsletter “Crawford Perspectives” on September 4, 2001
I think that both Clinton and Trump have a knowledge of what Chaney did with the Iraq currency. If you want a good view of it go to breitlingdinar and listen to his take on the future of the USD and the Iraq dinar. Let me know if you agree or disagree. Thanks, Andy
The next black swan event will be the political crisis in Italy along with the collapse of there banks which will result in Italy leaving the EU. The EU will then collapse.
You are on the right track. France is in far worse shape. The EU will NOT collapse in total as the Black Swan will be the collapse of the Euro. The mid-rich here in Europe
are into gold, cash and US assets in the largest tax haven of all time for them. I hear a sucking sound once the liquidity is in the US.
This is very timely commentary, Brian. Indeed, just recently, we released our Weiss Safety Ratings on the weakest banks in the world, covering institutions in 51 countries. We found that among the 22 weakest large banks in the eurozone …
Germany, Belgium and Cyprus each have one. Portugal has two; Spain and Greece, four each.
But of all the countries in the world, Italy has the biggest concentration of weak large banks — nine institutions in all.
Moreover, five of Italy’s nine weakest banks are megabanks with over $100 billion in assets:
• Unione di Banche Italiane, rated D, with $132.8 billion in assets;
• Banco Popolare SC, D-, with $139 billion;
• Banca Monte del Paschi di Siena, D-, with $197.6 billion;
• Intesa Sanpaolo, D+, with a whopping $796.9 billion; and
• the largest of all, UniCredit SpA, rated D, with over $1 trillion.
One of their main problems: Since 2009, bad debts have quadrupled from less than 3% of total loans to more than 12% today. As a result, many Italian banks have far more bad debts than they have capital to back them up.
To make matters worse, Italy has more public debt per GDP than any other EU member except Greece, despite an economy nine times larger than Greece’s.
Result: In a banking crisis, not only would Rome be hard pressed to come to the rescue, but Brussels would have a tough time saving Rome.
(For our complete list of the 22 most vulnerable large banks in the world, go to https://weissratings.com/22-large-eurozone-banks-vulnerable-to-brexit.)
I felt that your talk was refined, to the point and excellent.
There seems to be some evidence that the current administration and George Soros are stoking the fires of civil unrest in the US. There is a major uptrend in street crime and violence. Several groups are organizing to disrupt both conventions this summer. I believe these protests/disruptions will get out of control leading to marshal law and further loss of Liberty. This could very easily continue to spiral and lead to loss of confidence, bubbles bursting with pain and suffering on a grand scale.
William, if you have children or grandchildren … if you fear for their lives in ordinary daily circumstances (going to school, dancing in a disco, waiting in line at an airport check-in counter) … and if you’re given a choice between more liberty or less security, which do you choose?
I have asked many heads of households this same question in the U.S., Western Europe, Russia, Brazil, Japan, China and North Africa. I have asked people living in democracies, dictatorships and monarchies. But as you might imagine, regardless of social status or personal ideology, the answer is almost universally the same. For them, security is an immediate, tangible benefit; liberty is not.
The irony is that it’s the question — not the answer — that’s wrong. More security is not only possible without loss of liberty; it’s more likely to be achieved.
I know from personal experience. I lived in one of the most repressive dictatorships in modern history — Brazil between 1964 and 1984. I also lived in one of the world’s most advanced and secure democracies — Japan.
In Brazil, the loss of freedom did nothing to improve lax security; often, it merely compounded the problem. And in Japan, the high level of security had little to do with politics; it was rooted mostly in a millennial tradition of collective self-defense by local community organizations.
That may be difficult in America. But as Money and Markets editor Jeff Cantor tells us, advanced self-defense for individuals and families is not difficult.
Hard to believe? Then watch his recent blockbuster video “Freedom from Fear†(http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/reports/ASH/active-shooter/event/?ccode=&em=&sc=ASHWEB&ec=7113126).
Or if you want a complete list of Jeff’s recent columns, simply follow these steps:
1. Go to the red menu bar at the top of the page on this website.
2. Find the item “Issues.â€
3. Select “2016 issues.â€
4. Below the red bar menu, you will see a series of choices — for author, topic, year, etc. Click on the “All Authors,†and select “Jeff Cantor.â€
5. Press the “Submit†button (at the extreme right of the choices.) You will then have at your fingertips over 20 blockbuster columns Jeff has written for us since March 17 of this year.
6. Plus, you can follow the same steps to display the columns of any Money and Markets editor of your choice.
Hi Martin,
I did indeed view your video and have recommended to my friends and family to view it also. I am 70 and have lived through all of these black swans since the 50’s. This year reminds me a lot of how it was during the 1968 election year. I was serving in the Navy in support of the Vietnam war. I was stationed in Japan during the spring and summer months. I witnessed on TV the murder of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy.
The party conventions saw violent protests. I thought, this isn’t the country I left in 1965 when I enlisted in the Navy. I’m afraid this summer could see a repeat of 68, only much worse. I pray for the sake of the younger people that it doesn’t happen.
God bless our country
We share your prayers. But Cleveland is bracing for tens of thousands of protesters from “Bikers for Trump†to the “Coalition to Stop Trump.†And in response, the city is putting half of its downtown area under new restrictions.
And Philadelphia, the site of the Democratic convention, could turn out to be more hectic, with as many as one million protesters potentially descending on the city, while roughly 1,000 of the city’s airport workers walk off the job.
In both cities, at least some chaos is inevitable. The question is: How much?
In the past, the primary variable was police riot training — their skill in managing crowds with just the right level of restraint. Today, unfortunately, as we’ve just seen in Dallas and Nice, what will most determine the outcome is the presence or absence of active shooters and terrorists.
I think that when the gov.takes our hard earned savings that we should overthrow the gov.they already tax the hell out of us just to give for their dudillgence.it is not the working class fault for the ignorance and they should be stripped of their savings as gov. Officials and leave there ass dead broke and out of office
Overall trend of extreme wealth concentration in many parts of the world is worrisome. But I am more worried about the trend of shrinking middle class in America. This only leads to social instability as we have started to observe in the last couple of years. Your presentation, as well as many others from Money & Market has been very helpful. Thank you…
Martin- I believe the next black swan will be bank failures in Europe. I know Italian and Spanish banks are in deep trouble and a “bank-ruptcy” will set off a chain of events that will shake the entire financial system. …..all related to derivatives….
I received a letter today (7/8/16), from USAA bank telling me that my Non-Government Federated Obligation Money Market Account will, on August 18, 2016, be converted into a Federated Government US Treasury Fund Money Market Account. The Government can then take the money out of my new Treasury Fund any time it wants to and give me an IOU for worthless Treasury Notes.
USAA said this was an FTC order and they could not disobey it, and the only choice I could take was to move all money to a non FDIC guaranteed Mutual Fund account. Which is fine since the FDIC is bankrupt.
I strongly suggest that everyone call their Credit Union and bank and ask if your Money Market Accounts are being converted over to Federated Government US Treasury Money Market accounts? Then take the appropriate action to protect your money from the Government stealing it.
Please recommend a stock brokerage company that the default money holding account used to buy and sell stocks will not be a federated government US Treasury fund that the Government can convert the money in that account into us treasury bonds or any other govt notes?
The g0vernment can confiscate any account under the asset forfeiture laws with the push of a computer button.
Many years ago one of the books that I read covered just the circumstances that have occurred. The end result will not be some catastrophic event but simply be a gradual decline. The printing of currency which is nothing but theft of the value of the currency along with the increase of debt by the public sector is not at all new. The future will bring a recession (the signs are already present) followed by a slight deflation, then increase in deficit spending. Probably increasing the deficit to about 1.3 trillion and then inflation. The Federal Reserve Board will then monetize that debt.
By the way, capitalism has not been present in many decades. The government interferes in the marketplace in many ways. Interest rates, housing debt, student loan debt, international business debt etc. There are many other interfering policies and practices. Over 5000 years of history the result is always the same. If you borrow money, you will decrease your standard of living in the future by the amount of the principal and interest on the debt. The same thing occurs with nations, whether done by monetizing debt or defaulting on loans. In the case of the default it is the creditor that has a reduced standard of living. Recent examples are Greece, Argentina, Italy, Venezuela, Brazil, Portugal, Russia, the list goes on. The end result is always the same.
I agree with this aspect: No matter how shocking each Black Swan event may be, what’s driving the world today toward greater danger and turmoil are the three enduring megatrends I laid out in my video (which can be viewed by clicking on the opening image in the article above): (1) The greatest Fed money printing of all time, (2) the most extreme concentration of wealth in at least 100 years and (3) the most radical political polarization since the Civil War.
I have been reading about possible changes with the Petrodollar, primarily Saudi Arabia unpegging their currency from the dollar. This could have disastrous consequences for us. Another potential Black Swan?
NEXT BLACK SWAN: Market demand for higher interest rates despite the best efforts of central banks causing one or two advanced nations to absolutely default on sovereign debt obligations. That would precipitate a world wide and long-lasting deflation..
Richard, sounds like you’re referring to a global bond market collapse. You’re saying that, regardless of what central bankers may want, global bond investors could dump their holdings, drive interest rates higher, and put great financial stress on highly indebted sovereign governments.
If so, based on numbers alone, Japan seems to be most vulnerable, with government debts that represent more than 245% of GDP.
But the numbers are also alarming in five other major nations with more government debts than GDP. That includes Greece, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, plus one more country that has joined the same pitiful club: the USA.
In each of these countries, government debts exceed 100% of GPD. In each case, the debt burden is far worse than it was a decade ago. And everywhere, economists of years past warned loudly that exceeding 100% would be disastrous.
Among those same economists, many are silent today. But some — even at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and in the Congressional Budget Office (CBOE) — are not.
In the IMF’s most recent Global Financial Stability Report (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/), for example, it warns that risks have risen and the outlook has deteriorated in advanced countries …
Italy: IMF analysts warn that unless Italy can repair its bank balance sheets and lower its very high public debt, the result could be global contagion. They refer to “Italy’s monumental challenge,†the likelihood of “regional and global spillovers,†and “Italy’s systemic weight.†In other words, Black Swan events that could sink more than just Italy’s economy.
Japan: The IMF warns that “public debt is unsustainable under current policies.â€
United States: The Congressional Budget Office states emphatically that “the long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically over the past several years.†It foresees a death spiral that will sap revenue from government programs even as demands grow.
Clearly, R.M., the data support your thesis. But I feel what is missing in your comments is this critical fact: Bond investors don’t wait for actual defaults. They start dumping their bond holdings far sooner, and a major trigger can be ratings downgrades of sovereign debts.
Flash update: Fitch Ratings has just reported that the creditworthiness of sovereign nations has deteriorated at a record pace in the first six months of this year. So expect a raft of new downgrades.
Our POTUS, in spite of his recent power display with the presumptive democratic nominee, remains at a 50% approval rating according to yesterday’s polls. This action signals the next black swan event. It proves the people are numb and could possibly fail in their duty to vote sanely in November. Keep your money safe and more than ever think of your own best interest before investing.
The next black swan may not be a black swan event. The Italian banking system looks like the next major head wind for the markets. We have been hearing about it for some time from your organization. The greatest surprise to US investors may be how well the US markets do as money leaves Europe and comes to the US in search of safety. There is no safe place in the world markets anymore. Just some that are less dangerous for a time.
If so, this will not come as a surprise to us. As you may know, Money and Markets Editor Larry Edelson was among the first anywhere to predict this phenomenon, coining the term “The Global Money Tsunami.â€
And as you saw in my Next Black Swans video, the flow of flight capital to the U.S. is a major factor behind rising stock and real estate prices.
This powerful megatrend is continuing even as we speak. And, for now at least, it seems to have enough critical mass to offset traditional bearish forces like recession and disappointing earnings.
Hi Martin
What is missing here is a seat at the table of enormous profit. Whether it is policy change or knowing where to short and when, one thing is certain. Profit and pain will lie at the end of it.
There is panic brewing in the populace due to the incompetence of leadership at the top. We do not need more of the same, we need change.
Dear Martin
You make some very good points but the sheeple in Japan have voted for a tired Abenomics plan that has not worked so far. He received a bigger majority from the sheeple than even he expected and the Nikkei exploded for 900 points and well all the other Asian markets rushed to join the party. The yen weakened and all the stars fell into alignment for Mr. Abe. We have abandoned looking at data and profits and expansion its party time. I give this party a week to 10 days and then the euphoria will die off and people will realize that they are still in one of the Titanic’s life boats looking to be saved by well what else more free/cheap government money.
Well said, Gordon. But we feel that how soon the party will end could depend on the prior question. If the Global Money Tsunami continues to drive up U.S. stock prices, it may last longer. If not, it could abort sooner.
As an investor, your best plan is to follow, or better yet, invest in advance of the Global Money Tsunami: Buy what they’re going to buy, before they buy it.
We can’t know exactly which investments that will be. But we do know this with a high level of certainty: Global investors that are fleeing danger rarely seek new risks. Instead, they favor top-notch quality and security:
• The steadiest stocks with the best dividends track records.
• Extremely high-rated mutual funds and ETFs.
• Plenty of cash and the safest institutions to stash it.
We recommend you do the same. And to find the best of the best, I suggest you rely on our brand new website and tools at http://www.weissratings.com.
Reading all the black swan scenarios – with all our terrorist attacks – what I feel is the most frightening would be an attack on major power grids OR contamination of major water supplies. Do some research on the government contracts to companies that manufacture parts for reverse osmosis under the guise of “can u bis growing”. Just my observations. Thanks
Hi Martin
The major impact for me is to see how disengaged ordinary people are from the political elite. Many of us can see how genuine growth has not helped many but a few elites in the last eight years or so. With poor leadership for the last twenty years or so, there’s a lack of constructive policy to solve basic jobs and growth giving ordinary folks hope. Far too much direction is placed on social solutions to eg. gender equality and global warming while the fabric of middle class society is left like rotting fruit on a vine. Our work ethic principles are massaged, creating an entitlement society that sees a future in what’s in it for them, rather than getting off it and having a go. There’s far too much bureaucracy and red tape. We need hope now and neither party has all the real answers.
Amen brother!!
You have to ask why leaders in the government continue to work to divide us. Why are so many government departments stocking up on ammo and guns? Huge amounts. Do they want to create an urban war creating chaos to justify martial law and abandon our government? What else are these domestic departments doing with huge amounts of ammo and guns. Why do they work so hard at every turn to take our guns from us? Reduce the competition?
You said it. No one knows, Only God knows what it will be. History tells us that nations that turn from God have all fallen.
So the real question is will this nation return to God?
If not we have just seen the beginning and the 0.01 percent will soon be among the other group.
Looking back in appears to me that the Federal Reserve just might be one of the tools that God is using among many others.
Are we just too smart to look at history. Or do we think man has control not God.
With all of the manipulation going on by the plunge protection team and the banks the next black swan will be collapse of confidence by investors. That is when a crisis really occurs.
Bryan
I was reading they over manipulated after the Brexit and in a Melt up this forced the Shorts to cover driving the markets to new highs . Now I know in Money and Markets they were looking for a Correction to give the market new energy for its next leg up ! The correction did not happen so with all the shorts out where does the energy needed to move the Markets higher ??? Will the manipulators keep using money created out of thin air in the face of deteriorating Fundamentals to create even Newer Highs ????
Donald Trump becomes president of the US.
Your lips to God’s ears!!
I believe that the next financial black swan in already in progress. It will most likely occur in either Japan or Europe. The most likely event may be the failure of Deutsche Bank in Germany, and could therefore take down a number of Italian Banks as they are in terrible shape. Deutsche Bank has already been in a “death spiral” as it has, I believe, 43 trillion in outstanding toxic debt with no ability to pay it back or write if off without collapse. I’m shorting DB as we speak–should have done it 6 months ago.
Earthquake on the New Madrid fault line or Yellowstone blowing. Black swan = unpredictable. Either would devastate the country and economy. If we want a conspiracy, could they be triggered?
The next event that takes down the economies or financial systems or triggers a black swan scenario will be a confluence of smaller but serious issues. Any issue by itself would not be enough but together 3 or 4 will trigger the panic and have a cascading effect. This principal has been shown in studies of industrial accidents. The worst ones are usually not a single factor.
All I know is “it ain’t over till the fat lady sings”. She has been warming up for a long time.
Here is something you can bank your bet on and no one has mentioned it yet.
2016 is a Jubilee year or Super Shemitah year. It ends on October 2, 2016.
If you’re not familiar with Shemitah, I urge everyone to check it out. Events
will escalate between now and October.
i thought that was last year
THERE IS PERCEPTION, I.E. WHAT PEOPLE THINK, then there’s reality.
I am petrified that regarding the following:
Here is what my senses are telling me.
1) Possible revolution
2) ” chaos
3) ” civil war
4) Some COMBINATION of all the above
PLEASE HEED MY WARNING AND HERE’S WHY:
I told my friends and family about a possible
9-11 cataclysmic type event because of what i
saw with middle-eastern terrorism back in the
1970’s right here in St. Louis, MO.
Daily, and you can check the old news reports there were stories
in the media about hi-jackings from Lambert Airport
to Cuba!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOBODY listened, if the truth
be told, my friends and family laughed and scoffed.
But when 9-11 happened everyone was shocked, scared
and stunned.
In 1993 i predicted the levee near the home i was renting
would break…it did. Again people laughed and scoffed.
But before the levee broke i got all our belongings OUT!!!!!!!!
In conclusion i am not suggesting we prepare for war…
NO i am suggesting the exact opposite but do not misunderstand
I am talking about reconciliation, repentance, and coming together
under New Testament’s precepts.
But unless God is at the forefront, the aforementioned predictions at the top of the
page are a real possibilty.
We seem to agree on your three points because I can feel them in the air. It is the US government that is creating, it seems intentionally, this electrified air. As any kid from NYC will verify, we have an instinctive ability to detect danger. I feel it every day. We are close, very very close.
I believe a previous reader, William Brock, hit the nail on the head. In my opinion, the next Black Swan is nearly upon us with this summers political conventions. Long-simmering anger is already boiling over: Sanders supporters (and many, many others) feeling like the game is rigged; Black Americans feeling as if they are “being hunted”; White, middle class Americans working harder for less, all while being told THEY are the problem; an out-of-control government that is unapologetically unaccountable…
My brother-in-law is a state trooper. I won’t tell you which state. He has been telling me for months now that the conventions are going to get out of hand: police will be badly hurt, patrol cars burned…absolute mayhem. It’s going to be worse than ’68. They’ve received intelligence that several groups, notorius for their use of advanced anti-arrest devices and anarchist violence, are converging on the Democratic convention. Their stated aim is two-fold: 1) nothing less than shutting down the American political process, and 2) instigating the declaration of martial law across the country, as ‘sympathy’ protests erupt in city after city.
Like 1848 or 1914, it appears that we are in the midst of historically epic year that changes everything.
I THINK ALL 3 WILL HAPPEN ONE RIGHT AFTER THE OTHER TOTAL BREAK DOWN. GET READY I HAVE BEEN FOR A YEAR AND A HALF.
ONE MORE THIG TOO ADD BEEN STOCK PILLING PROVISION I’LL GO TO EIGHTER THE DEEP UP THE MOUNTAINS OR UNDER GROUND HAVE BOTH SET UP.
Mr. Weiss,
As Mr. Trump is a so called birther and as Mr. Obama probably is not even an American citizen, let alone a Natural Born Citizen of the USA, Obama could do anything to prevent Mr Trump from being elected later this year. The Army is already making preparations for martial law in all 50 states, so it could be imposed in case Mr Trump is elected later this year. It could even be imposed before the election, so there will be no election at all. This is no stuff to be discussed in cosy auditoria, but it certainly is playing in the background and certainly in Obama’s mind. If this happens, the markets will react furiously, I am afraid.
Yours sincerely,
Herman Degenhart.
The next black swan is being planned. It will appear to us as a black swan because its occurrence will be unthinkable. The event will be the end of the American Republic as we have known it. The event will be the culmination of 45 years of hard work on the part of the liberal/radical sector of this country. While Madame Hillary has the appearance of being their leader, she is merely a convenient sock puppet. What is in the offing is far worse. See to your heart, your home and your family, and that what you hold dear is worthy to be worshipped.
Hilary Rotten CLinton. She will follow Obama n the USA, already considered a laughingstock ( per Jim Cramer of Mad Money)…..will be taken over by Russia who is leading 57 countries trying to remove the dollar as the reserve currency.
Hilary Rotten has absolutely no scruples as we have seen since the couple took the White house in the 1990s. She believes in nothing other than her own power ( she is a follower of Alinski who wrote ” Rules for Radicals”…and gives him homage as one of her mentors…coincidentally Obumma also sites Alinski as a mentor).
With no scruples, the Clintons will rape the gov’t even further ( read ” throw them all out” for a list of some of Washington’s biggest thieves).
The fix is in…Clinton walks in….the Russians will take over.
Learn Russian now…I fear all the Berlitz classes teaching Russian will be filled shortly..
According to David Wilkerson, popular writer, evangelist and founder of one of the most successful inner city ministries in America, Teen Challenge, stated in a book published in 1973 “The VIsion” that God did give him a vision of the near future that included a world-wide economic event that would take down the economies of the world. I’ve never doubted the veracity of his message and it continues to ring with complete truth. In a taped message I listened to he stated that it would begin in Germany. Therefore it is my conclusion that the “Black Swan” event that sets off the world-wide economic calamity will begin with Dutsch Bank. That is why I paid close attention to your recent articles and I am watching this point to know and see when it all begins. Please read Amos 3:7: “For the Lord GOD does nothing without revealing his secret to his servants the prophets.”
It’s summer, and the heat tends to aggravate those who can’t escape it. It makes some (maybe many) people irritable and short tempered. Notice how few riots occur during January!
It’s risky to use the hockey stick example to predict future events. Some things just happen, but politicians are quick to grasp spontaneous events to further their pet agendas. And this may be a greater threat than the actual event.
Black Lives Matter certainly does not represent the Black majority but the impact is devastating and could get worse. First, law enforcement has showed such cowardice in addressing these “protests” (Civil Disobedience, Disorderly Conduct, Stalking and assault). Call it like it is and arrest these people who block traffic and pelt police officers with rocks and bottles. To think like our attorney general or the president of the United States that blacks should be treated differently is insane.
The prisons are packed already, maybe there should be chain gangs to work on replacing needed infastructure.
When and if European money starts to exit our markets because investors over there begin to believe their currencies are stronger than ours, causing an unstoppable drop of our equities, all our economies weakness will be undressed and a full collapse of our economy will happen. When and if — because the question is a bit unfair, inasmuch as black swans are totally unpredictable. That’s what I think.
we can devalue while we have the money
hehe
I believe the next Black Swan will be either a rogue Nation or a rogue group getting their hands on a weapon of mass destruction and setting it off in one of our least secure areas of this country and that would be in port Cities. also the same scenario would have devastating effects if an EMP where to take out our power grid that would definitely create havoc and civil unrest either scenario would definitely bring this country to a halt
Hello Martin,
Thank you for your extremely insightful observations. It’s always a pleasure to hear your thoughts.
I believe that next Black Swan, will be financial crisis much worse than we experienced in 2008 and that will be triggered by the fall of Deutsche Bank, which is already down 90% but still has a market cap of $17.5B When this bank goes bankrupt, the dominoes in the European banking sector (several of which have also lost over 50% of their market cap over the last year) will fall, taking the entire banking sector with it. The derivative exposure of Deutsche Bank is in the multiple Trillions and is only surpassed by J P Morgan in size. The Central Bankers will print more money until it looks like the Reich Mark and the Zimbabwe dollar. A new monetary system, probably based on a silver/gold standard will emerge as all the fiat currencies show their worthless nature.
The only protection from this catastrophe will be to own physical silver and gold, and in the meanwhile, silver and gold stocks, which will substantially out-perform the market until this Black Swan occurs.
I wrote a book on “crisis investing and entrepreneuring” back in 2009 to help people
suffering from the last downturn. Now we are seeing the possibility of another one along with serious civil disruptions. From an investor’s point of view the world, if not the U.S. entirely yet, is aflame. And we can’t make any money on “safe” funds in CD’s or Treasuries, so are being forced to make highly speculative plays. Mike Larson sees any kind of return on investment, however paltry, as positive these days! Gold obviously is doing well, but there are no dividends…I look at things from a lot of points of view, you might take check out a site called Ask a Prepper–survivalism thought is at least highly practical, if not encouraging. For myself I live in a small town 200 miles from a big city–and used to advise others professionally on how to relocate to such places (google me?) and have also built a house overseas if it comes to that. I’m also working on a book about Canada for Americans, who need to know more that country–it’s still sane, and relatively prosperous. Get my drift?
I think Rush has it right. It will be a massive attack at the Republican Convention. These protesters will not just bully and disrupt it, and get in peoples faces, I think they will under the guise of a peaceful protest have others possibly blow up the convention. I hope that doesn’t happen. The police need to be there in force and actually be actively arresting those with violent behavior.
To most a black swan event implies something that happens in a reasonably short period of time, and that it sort of flew in out of the blue. I disagree with this premise, and believe that most supposed black swan events were underway much earlier than recognized, and have only flown in out of the blue for those caught off guard/in dreamland.
That said, I believe a hay-maker of black swans has been brewing for some time now. It’s the black swan of what will be an over reaction of the saver class to the extended time frame of inordinately low interest rates as a result of the FOMC/Treasury/the BHO administration/and a host of other lesser players. People in the saver class have been forced into investment vehicles that most would have preferred to stay away from just to get some income. Coming up shortly, they will be taken behind the shed for a good thrashing (again), but this time there will be an uprising over what has happened/what has been perpetrated on them. I’m not sure how they will deliver the message of their anger, but I know that they will, and my hunch is that it will have major economic consequences.
These people are older, but not yet old and feeble, and they will deal harshly with those that did this to them when they fly into town on that black swan. Angry Grandma’s/Granpa’s are nothing to mess with. They have serious economic and political clout still, and are about to show the world just how ticked off they are.
Dr. Weiss: I have a retired CIA officer/scientist friend that about 4-5 months ago told me there “will be” an ISIS( owned and operated by the CIA) attack on the USA this summer. No exact dates given. But, it’s summer so it could be anytime. These attacks will be in multi-cities at the same time, AND may include dirty bombs.
He said after which Congress will vote to cancel the elections and make Obama-dictator!
Approx. 10 years ago I was told -before Obama ran for President- that he would run and win, and that “he would be the last President of the USA. The above statement make this possible. Expect Martial law this late summer and/or early fall, followed by a Red dawn attack. I am serious- have to run-I have an appointment.
al
Your Black Swan presentation was brilliant.However,it went on and on and on. No dissertation should go on any longer then 5-10 minutes maximum. I speak this from experience having been in the media over 20 years.
Multi-prong events will occur in part due to the “global interlock” we now have in most/all dealings.
The immediate threat is ITALY and their 360 Bil in bad/nonperforming loans! This move to “shift” +/-50% to the “people” (counter to EU rules/regs) does nothing to “solve” this issue – it kicks the can again..perhaps one year, perhaps not).
Then, you have DB over in Germany with the largest DERIVATIVES book in the world. Their current stock price is under 10% of what it was!.. One good “poof of wind” will fold that house of cards – then, what of those derivatives, eh?…which involve “most” other major banks of the world (old Prime list, etc).
BREXIT is only the “excuse” for movements and motions that would have/should have happened anyway. Convenient kabuki theater props, eh?
CHINA is actively trying to slow-down their hard landing due to the world economy slow down from way back..the drop in the value of the Yen vs USD and others could only happen with PBOC blessings via the Govt (only you have to figure out “which govt” that really is, eh?).. Capital flight is once again on the rise there. AND, they still are buying hard metals in gross tonnage quantity.
My feelings are: IF you don’t own metals, in hand hard coins and bars – you should at once! Look at the historic Au vs Ag ratio and make your choice…I vote for SILVER first, then roll over into Au after the ratio adjust below 40:1… How much?…I’d say 50% of any money market account you now hold…and, 30% of any IRA/401k you hold (which will require American gold/silver Eagles at a premium buyer’s fee). TAKE DELIVERY of any/all you can! Storage can NOT be in a bank or related…within USA. Then I would prep/stock some food, water, and ammo for personal use – and, consider getting away from any major city at the first sign of “open troubles” / riots.
Forgot:
I have heard/read that some “mutual funds” are forcing “money market account balances” into their “Govt securities/bond/note funds”… I can not confirm this.
AND…don’t forget “BAIL-IN” is only a button push away…so, if you rake your funds into an account within “your bank”, you are “at risk” for some unkn grab amount without FDIC coverage…ie: the “bank” doesn’t fail under Bail-In, eh?…
Under the bed and in the floor safe is starting to look better and better… or, perhaps, a small ranch out west someplace, eh?
I believe China will attempt to take more control over the South China. The U.S. and Japan’s reaction to this, could cause the next Black Swan event.
Dr. Weiss, I greatly enjoyed your presentation on black swan events. I realize that, by definition, we can’t possibly know what the next “black swan” will be. However, from different reports across the financial community, it looks like China would like to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Who will loan the U.S. any money once the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency–and yet, we now borrow 40 cents for every dollar spent. What’s your take on that potential “black swan?”
Another financial service is talking about the devaluation of the US dollar that will occur as most other countries of the world join together to create a basket of currencies to serve as the dominant currency and will exclude the US dollar. These countries are already joining together to trade in their own currencies. The basket of currencies will have the Chinese yuan as the dominant currency. When China dumps it’s holdings of US debt, that will be the end of the US as a super power.
The whole planet is festering with unhappy souls. They are many rebels fighting existing governments. Countries are splitting from larger ones into smaller ones. Instead of UNITING, many places are FRACTURING. Basically people regardless of where they live on earth are simply, honestly and justified fed up with ANY government. They realize what Thoreau said, “Government is best which governs least.”
The last time this happened to the extent it exists now is when Europe went from the Romans governing to the Barbarians, and other form of Warlord communities taking over. Feudalism here we come!
The last time – – – – was a preliminary and relatively local scenario, a type of warning, from a global point of view for what is upon us today.
Very good analysis and advice to protect ones investments. Thank you Dr. Weiss.
The most shocking and dreaded event that is now showing signs of coming Is the eruption of Yellowstone. It can leave deep levels of ash world wide. If its as gigantic as it’s showing then goodbye to all of us. This is an event of such magnitude that we cannot even seem to discuss the many warning signs that reliable scientific investigators are seeing. We would all be extinguished. End of story.
Root is correct… Read Iben Browning’s book “The Affairs of Man And Climate” and particularly study the tidal cycles Iben discusses and you can almost pinpoint the locations of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
Yes, the Yellowstone depression was once a huge release of pent-up pressure beneath earth’s very thin fragile crust.
I wouldn’t visit there for a million dollars… I only hope the next release is not as large as scientist predict it could be. When it does happen, it will alter the way earthlings live for many years.
Sadly my computer is old and inadequate to play your last video……which I guess was or is to be helpful for us…..I have been a long time subscriber to Safe Money and have been disappointed with all the negativity since Mar.2009…and in fact ever since you stopped being the editor…..I need overall market direction for IRAs and 40l Ks not buy these few share, sell or buy a few mmore and lots of doom and gloom and never a positive direction while the market recovered some 200% and still doom and gloom and now a waste with the non financial stuff.,..
Just about a sure bet we will lose our grid. Then it’s back to 1875. It’s just to large and unprotected a target. Also, once the welfare state comes to an end, endless civil war, bummer.
Hi Martin,
I believe the European Sovereign Debt Crisis/European Banking Crisis WILL be THE Black Swan to really kick start the current bear market that really started last year with China, Commodities, and the Emerging Markets….This “good” Jobs report for June is NOTHING but smoke and mirrors…This IS the last gasp for the capital markets!!!!
In reply to your question as to where the next black swan will come from, I say Europe; and I’ll tell you why.
Brexit is a symptom of a European black swan on the horizon. Unlike the rest of Europe, the U.K. practices common law; so the constant addition and modification of codes by Brussels is foreign to them. Common law was adopted from England by the US as well as by Australia and New Zeland, so Americans should understand what I am talking about; but common law was never applied in continental Europe. In continental Europe, if a regulation does not fit the situation just modify the code.
Had this exit been voted by one of the continent or Nordic countries then such an exit would have become a black swan by now. Governance by code means that if the codes are broken then consequences will follow accordingly. However, codes for admission to the EU were not fully adhered to in various instances for admission of several countries. This has become a credence issue for regulations and codes established by the Brussels bureaucrats; resulting in dissatisfaction of codes put out by Brussels relating to immigration, banking, and so forth across the whole of the EU. The continental judicial system without common law is less flexible without the practice of common law.
With present issues in the EU banking industry growing and the number of EU countries with potential black swans in their banks increasing, I should expect that more and more codes will be side-stepped because of inconsistencies in requirements for application of codes in an effort to prevent black swans in the banking industry from landing; but the resulting inconsistencies could land an even bigger black swan in the heart of Brussels.
Dr. Weisse,
I saw no references to the 0.01% who have set in play the day to day Black
Swans mentioned. As US centrists, we need stretch a little further or you
may be running through the same charts in another one-hundred years?
For those who wonder about 911 I suggest this site: http://www.ae911truth.org/
As for the world economy, we know it has been in a depression since 2007-08. Some counties are experiencing a recession in the midst of the depressions. The Big 5-6 Banks keep making risky Bets with the “assumption” they will be bailed out by the Government or Depositors or both. Derivatives have only increased.
NATO keeps pushing Russia when it has really been pretty tame and is not looking for a major conflict and the South China Sea issue is touchy with China and its billions of potential soldiers, so as the WAR drums beat we may have such.
It could be a number of scenarios but the “odds” the status quo will remain seem rather Low.
Our Economic Strength is what made the USA the Superpower of the World. Now we are suffering from the terrible decisions have been made on our behalf while we were sold down the river by complete dishonesty by those we voted for. The USA has lost it’s ability to manufacture goods due to the wonderful NAFTA trade agreement signed by Clinton in 1994… As a result we have lost our borders,our Country’s National & Economic Security and gained nothing but insecurity, both monetarily and militarily. We have sent our Country’s Wealth and strength overseas. Yet no one dare call it what it is because it’s the truth and politically incorrect. The result is that we are nothing but a country that can’t stand on our own 2 feet anymore. We have nothing that other nations need or want from us and therefore we have become a non-entity on the global stage. We have handed all of our strength to China and friends. I weep for my country…
Govt is dysfunctional, and people should vote new people into office for President and Congress”…..All elected officials should have only one 6 year term in office, and would not need to spend so much money and time in getting reelected.
Now, we will reap the consequences for reelecting the same people. Since 2008 Govt official debt has more than doubled. It took 200 years for Govt debt to reach 8 trillion – now in just 7 years has soared to $19 trillion. That debt is now $59,100 for every man, woman and child. Off balance sheet, debt is over $70 trillion.
So, Govt and World have a “debt crisis” – and are technically bankrupt. It is only a matter of time before before the “bubble” burst, and will destroy some $68 trillion in US wealth. Govt will then need to get a lot more money from you and everybody just to pay Govt employees, police and interest on debt. Just taxing the rich will not solve the problem.
I understand Black Swanns don’t give any
warnings. Newton’s laws of motion tells us
what is in vogue right now is mass shootings. And will continue. We also have
a heads up about banks in Europe. So, by
definition they aren’t Black Swanns because we can connect the dots ahead
it it. Look for the reciprocal of these events for the next Black Swanns. Ying & Yang
as they say. I see many Black Swanns that
are coming because long term vision has
been replaced for ad hoc metrics.
The event that will put us back to 1875 is the loss of the grid, which will happen and will be man caused, we have too many enemies, both within and with out, bummer.
j clark
Yep now that’s a Black Swan event to be terrified of ! I know I couldnt survive without electricity . I imagine the Amish and Farmers may have the best chances of survivng that event
Thank you for explaining Black Swans. It’s comforting to know not everything is in our control.
Whatever the black Swan event turns out to be and assuming that your analysis is correct then it follows that the next Swan will the cumulative result of all previous swans exacerbated but some external catalyst. Per your thesis swans are not mutually independent. IMHO the next black Swan may be related to the realization by millennials that all media pushes propaganda in one form or another. The ensuing backlash could be the catalyst.
Maybe an experiment of the Hedron collider at cern will go wrong and affect the whole climate of Europe ????
Hi Martin, I believe the catalyst will be the refugee overload and the evil ISIS element within it that will create terror and financial havoc in Europe…bringing down Deutsche Bank…..already in DEEP DOODOO with $76 Trillion +/- of derivatives and LIBOR LITIGATION, unless they can some how swap their way out (doubtful), create euros out of Goldilocks hair (again, doubtful) or to ‘rollover’ on their cartel partners in crime to get solvent (?). Anyway, I think this will get the dominos falling…oops don’t forget about Japan…and then the USofA, where much of this started . Darn…I wish management could have been a little smarter, wiser and less greedy!
Hi Martin, Thank you for sharing your PGA presentation.
The sad state of the world is that we are becoming numb to terrorist attacks, unlike 9/11. Therefore, that numb feeling will fuel the real Black Swan.
My prediction is the Black Swan will be a derivative meltdown that creates a S*** storm so massive it will be felt world wide. It will be ignited by 3 simultaneous small bank failures and Deutsche Bank will be the fuse that sets off the cascading end to all derivatives. The prolific reach of world wide derivatives is horrifying.
What will major markets and economies look like then?
Where does all of the QE and Helicopter money go when this happens? It’s going to go some where.
Would “Class A” assets with 20 yr dividend history be trading for BV or less?
A large terrorist attack within.
We are all still here after all the depressions inflations 9/11 etc. what is the problem? Try praying if you are so scared of life