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Apple (AAPL) is falling from the market tree.
The benchmark technology stock cratered through its 200-day moving average yesterday. Then it fell even further today to as low as $113.25, making it 10 losing sessions out of the last 11.
Not only that, but Apple is now 15% off its intraday high in April around $134.50. All of that adds up to make this the stock’s first significant technical breakdown since late 2012.
Apple still sports a market capitalization of $653 billion. It still has almost universal adulation on Wall Street (39 “buy” ratings vs. only two “sells”, according to Bloomberg). And it still dominates the media and market conversation, particularly when it releases a new whiz-bang product, service, or smartphone.
So what’s going on? And how far could Apple drop?
One key problem is disappointment over the Apple Watch. I said right from the outset I had no intention of buying one, and that I thought it was an overpriced, unnecessary accessory.
Apple hasn’t said much about sales trends since then. But third-party researchers say the product isn’t seeing anywhere near the demand expected by bullish observers. Analysts estimate Apple sold only 1.5 million to 3 million watches in the fiscal third quarter, well below forecasts of as much as 5 million.
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| Concerned about your Apple shares? |
Another threat is China. Apple gets around 25% to 30% of its sales in China, depending on the quarter. So fears about China’s market meltdown and weakness in the broader economy there are weighing on Apple shares.
It’s also worth pointing out that while Apple beat earnings estimates in the just-reported quarter, with profit of $1.85 a share versus forecasts for $1.81 a share, that was the smallest “beat” in two. That loss of earnings momentum is another yellow flag.
Analysts weren’t exactly wowed by smartphone sales of 47.5 million in the quarter, either. They were generally looking for a number closer to 50 million. iPad tablet sales also remained weak, showing how that business is languishing.
Does all of this mean Apple shares will become applesauce? No, not necessarily. The stock has still been a fantastic long-term performer, and investors won’t sour on it overnight.
But the technical breakdown of a major market bellwether is definitely gaining notice on Wall Street. What’s more, it’s yet another worm winding its way through a market that’s getting increasingly full of worrisome holes.
| “The technical breakdown of a major market bellwether is definitely gaining notice on Wall Street.” |
So if you haven’t already taken some profits off the table, or lightened up by jettisoning a few losers, now might be a good time to act!
Now, I’d like to hear from you. Do you own Apple, and are you worried about its breakdown? Or is this just another in a long line of buying opportunities?
Do you think the Watch, the iPhone, and other products are losing popularity and/or market acceptance? Or will sales heading into the key back to school and holiday shopping seasons dispel any concerns? Let me know over at the Money and Markets website.
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Is Obama’s climate plan the right thing to do for our children and grandchildren, not to mention the planet as a whole? Or is it an expensive boondoggle that will drive power bills up while doing little to reduce pollution? That was the major issue being kicked around at the website.
Reader Ron S. said he doesn’t buy the argument that additional EPA restrictions will result in tangible benefits. His take: “The President lied to the American public with the savings associated with Obamacare and he is lying again about the health care benefits associated with these strict emission controls. He is just pushing his electric agenda and no one can seem to stop him. He is just going to make everyone pay more for their electricity.”
Reader Philip B. came down on the same side of the debate, saying: “Obama is once again trying to fix a climate change issue that many experts do not believe exists. The result will lead to higher utility bills that many ordinary people will not be able to afford to pay. Wind farms and solar energy methods of generating electricity are not able to fill the power gap that coal now very efficiently provides.”
Finally, Reader Brent said: “Without governmental (taxpayer) and ratepayer subsidies, wind and solar make little sense for the average ratepayer. The enormous costs, the unpredictable supply, and the short panel life make it doubtful anyone but the equipment manufacturers and installers will come out ahead.
“It sounds very politically correct and responsible, but it is a colossal waste of public funds to continue propping up such ventures. If they (solar and wind) are just grand ideas, they should be able to self-sustain rather than relying on bureaucratic dicta and money subsidies.”
On the other hand, Reader Joe K. said he thinks being more environmentally conscious is the right policy. His view: “Just thinking of your almighty income, or could you consider the generations to come? Doesn’t sound like you critics can see beyond your wallets.
“My family invested in solar hot water years ago, and have just built our ‘downsized’ new home … We just believe it is the right thing to do so the next generations can enjoy the benefits of clean air (and hopefully water).”
Reader Melissa P. added: “It’s past time to realize that investment in fossil fuels is a fool’s errand with devastating consequences. Stop riding the down-alator and start seriously investing in renewables. Your grandchildren will thank you for a world that hasn’t been completely ruined by exploitation.”
No doubt the debate over renewable vs. fossil fuels can get heated. I personally believe investing in and studying cleaner sources of power makes sense. But as some of you noted, it has to be economically competitive on some level. That’s a tall order with “bridge” fuels like natural gas so abundant, cheap, and at least somewhat cleaner than alternatives like coal.
That said, a whole lot of money, publicity, and technical expertise is going to be directed at the alternative energy industry with these new regulations. So as an investor, you’d be wise to look into ways to profit – as I am.
Any other ground I didn’t cover here? Then be sure to let me hear about it at the website.
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The ink wasn’t even dry on President Obama’s climate change plan before key lawyers and lobbyists started gearing up to fight it. And yesterday, a group of coal representatives and attorneys general from coal-mining states announced plans to fight the climate regulations tooth and nail. We’ll have to see if this program ends up before the Supreme Court eventually just like Obamacare.
What the heck is going on with China’s markets? That’s what the nation’s premier Li Keqiang apparently wanted to know recently, according to the Wall Street Journal. He reportedly lambasted officials from the People’s Bank of China, and the leading banking and securities regulatory agencies for their disjointed and incompetent response to the recent market turmoil.
The biotech M&A action shows no sign of letting up, with Shire Plc (SHPG) launching a $30 billion offer for Baxalta (BXLT). Shire’s bid works out to just over $45, a 36% premium to where Baxalta closed yesterday.
Shire decided to go hostile after Baxalta rejected private overtures. A transaction would create a behemoth in the treatment of rare diseases, conditions that impact fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the bond giant Pimco for its valuation, disclosure, and compliance practices, according to reports. The area of focus is the firm’s popular Pimco Total Return Active Exchange Traded Fund (BOND).
What do you think about the resistance to Obama’s climate plan? Is it justified or misguided? How about the latest round of biotech M&A? Are you making money from this hot sector? Let me know your thoughts on those or other stories over at the website.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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I have sold 1/3 of my Apple shares, but Apple still makes up 7% of my portfolio. I am under water, but will keep holding the shares. Other than that I am probably 88% cash.
Again, AAPL is just following the monthly sell signal in place on the broader indexes. Although the NASDAQ held up longer than the SP, it’s now in sell mode, and AAPL will probably help lead it down. People may buy at 15 or 20% down, thinking it’s cheap enough for a “correction”, but odds are the monthly sell signal has shown the end of this bull market, and after a bounce, AAPL will drop through the 20% down level, and trigger lots of stops, which may start the real acceleration to the downside.
I own an Apple watch and quite like it. So much so I am considering buying a second one in stainless. I’ve been searching for a nice looking, digital watch, with a handful of features, for over 10 years. I wanted something attractive, easy to read in the dark, with a count down times, multiple alarms and time zones. Something not too bulky, or too heavy, with an attractive band. Calendar and fitness were not on my list, as that didn’t really exist much in past years. I would have liked to spend a bit less, but to be fair, the only choices were very inexpensive (and inexpensive looking) options from Casio and Timex and such, or really expensive options from Gucci and such. For me, and my needs, and those of many of my friends, the Apple watch fits in very nicely, it does everything I originally wanted, plus tracks my daily movements for health (a very nice bonus), and allows me to silently feel if my phone rings without disturbing anyone I might be meeting with.
One of the problems with predictions and expectations, is the super short memories we have. When the 1st iPod, or 1st iPhone hit the markets, no one was sure what they would ultimately turn into. Because they were so successful, the predictions were (I think) overly enthusiastic for now. By the time the new software update and version 2 of the watch come out, I think people will know more, understand more of what it does and does not do, and how it can fit into your life if that is something you wanted int he first place. If you like and wear a Rolex, then this will never be what you want. I think it depends a whole lot on an individual’s lifestyle. I’m sure Apple will be fine, and more incremental advances will come along for the Watch and for the other products Apple makes as well. Considering that Apple was left for dead more than once in its history, they seem to have figured things out fairly well. The Apple watch is not for everyone, neither is any piece of anyone’s technology. I think time (no pun intended) will tell, but it will take some time for users and the market and Apple to figure it all out.
Re Obama’s climate change proposals, they certainly seem like another of his boondoggles. He’ll only be satisfied when most of the “common people” are forced to become wards of the federal government.
so true; so insightful. thank you very much.
Some believe in life that you struggle to be better than you are. I hope we have a new POTUS who helps us all get there.
Obama lies. I tell my students that. We talk about a lot of things, including the true costs of windmills. Many have no idea that REEs imported from China are required and that the processing of those REEs creates huge radioactive environmental disasters in China. The bald eagles are not too happy about windmills either. If you or I caused those eagle deaths as individual citizens, we would be in jail.
Should we talk about the thousands of jobs being cut when coal is cut? Those supporting Obama do so because of ideology, not facts. At least not all of the facts.
Make no mistake, Apple continues to strategically position itself with regards to the upcoming automonomous vehicle industry & the roll out of their product up against google & the car manufacturing conglomerate in Europe that are all vying for market share. When you subscribe to a circa $2k per year subscription for an automonomous Apple vehicle that can pick you up & take you anywhere without the maintenance & running costs you have now, I wonder if you’ll look back & be able to identify this applesauce.
Obama’s climate plan did not go far enough because it still includes increasing drilling for oil and gas all over America’s land and water, in the face of the public health, environmental,and yes, economic devastation it brings….
Also, there is the idea that somehow developing and using truly renewable energy is going to be expensive, that using renewables is expensive, that it will ruin the job market—all of these are nonsense. Renewable energy is already more cost-effective in the longterm for consumers, and as the scope grows, it will be so for major supplier as well. Besides, it is only have a legal mandate to do something that America starts to really innovate and make things better…and cheaper.
All continuing to push fossil fuels is going to do is to deprive the U.S. of being the world’s energy and economic leader.
As far as jobs in fossil fuel communities—these areas should be ground-zero for investment in renewable manufacturing. That will replace the jobs. Then, once we build out our renewable energy (solar and wind are not the only choices if we conduct real R&D—more jobs), and if we do it before other countries beat us to it, it will help us to become competitive in world manufacturing—cheap and even free energy goes a long way to cutting costs.
It is only when America has a legal mandate to something that we (Americans) innovate?
I for one am glad your nanny state legal mandaters were NOT around for our industrial revolution. It never would have happened. As a small business owner with many small business owner friends…..I know that the plethora of legal mandates and regulations now coming from nanny gubmint at all levels are running many of them OUT of business.
Let the market determine where the investments happen. THAT is what made America great……NOT gubmint mandates.
LKH, it must be wonderful to see the world for what it isn’t and how much you can wreck it for others.
I’m sorry, but by every metric you use renewable energy is an expensive, impractical joke. Pure pie in the sky. It would not survive for five minutes without wasting billions of taxpayer dollars on subsidies and tax credits. Someday in the Ray Bradbury future we may go solar but that is several decades away. The world will rely on fossil fuels for at least the next fifty years. Jim
LKH Dream on. Your dreams are nightmares but you haven’t yet awakened.
Jim, you obviously don’t get out much. You have a very closed mind and limited information. Have you for one minute considered the billions of taxpayer dollars in subsidies and tax benefits going to the oil industry? is it only wasteful to you if it is on renewable energy? Are you that unable to thing in terms of the future and the health of the planet? If you would get off your sofa and travel to Europe you will see renewable energy perking along at a pace that will leave the US in the dust. And Europe will dump fossil fuels well before your fifty year outlook. America doesn’t lead in too many areas any more, and it’s only going to get worse with stilted thinking like yours.
Obama is getting some bad advice from his inner circle; Coal fired plants are designed to operate 24/7 to meet the Base demand of the electric grid. You cannot replace that with solar or wind generated power because they are not supplying power 24/7. They only generate power when the sun shines and the wind blows respectively. These generators are used to meet Peak demand and can be cycled on and off quickly where a coal fired plant takes time to bring on line.
Another example of poor policy from our inexperienced President.
Well, what I think is that as predicted, the share buy backs are running out of steam. with a fed unable to raise rates but threatening is starting to loos its effect, Free money is always good but what if she did raise and now with the euro melt down on off yes no grexit or not to grexit , it has very little to do with demand of trinkets of technolodgy and more to do with capital flows . I mean , if the market is so healthy why don’t she rise , the rates that is, huh! if you notice the dow is up and down with the ftse and the dax almost like they where dancing a waltz. just one or two days apart, this chinese thing is just icing gravy for the goose and the euro is a basket case oh I made a funny, get it basket currency huh! huh! Auh! It might be me but it is possible that the old apple has one more rise to not the high but close and then along with the other portions of the market will find the low together albeit each at their own pace. This seesaw is nerve racking . you can call the dow by watching the European markets general daily direction the day or two before ! mostly , mostly they come at night! mostly!
Hi Nohomehere,
We should not be surprised that the News from Europe and Asia would affect the Stock
markets here in the West.. A lot of US investment is outside the US
They call it “Diversification” I call it Betting Against The US.
The US may already be in a position of NOT BEING the WORLD LEADER.
Hopefully, the next Election will turn things around …
American can be Great Again.. but at what cost and for how long?
I remember the days when the US was being called upon to forgive the Debt of many Debtor Nations because they could not even afford to pay the interest charges.
Did the US get paid back for any of that yet? Why Not?
I wonder if the US will ever have any part of it’s foreign Debt Forgiven
Regards
Ron
Ron,
I understand that only one country paid back the war debts you are probably referring to ….The Brits. They paid back every penny.
Cyd
What do I think about Apple? haha BUY! But only if you believe in buying low and selling high, which is the opposite of what people do.
Since coal is such an abundant fuel, and relatively so cheap, wouldn’t it have been rational to work on methods to make it environmentally safer, rather than ditching it entirely? Some exist, and could very likely be improved.
Hi Chuck,
I believe the plan is to Liquify Coal and sell it as Auto Fuel..
Of course, the Coal Mines will have to be closed down, Sold Cheap and then reopened
under foreign Ownership.. Why else would they be under such EPA assault?
You’re probably right about the foreign ownership. Especially Chinese. China still uses huge amounts of coal for power, even though they are starting to cut back. If they can buy American mines driven out of business by Mr. O, they will likely do so. Maybe import native labor under TPP. More Americans out of work in any case. Something like 23% according to conservative figures I’ve seen.
It shocks and saddens me that Americans are not following the example of Martin Luther King and taking to the streets in the millions to oppose the increasingly autocratic decrees of the detached, megalomaniacal, and dictatorial man in the White House. Instead Americans are like the Kevin Bacon character in Animal House, saying again and again, “Thank you sir, may I have another?”
Obama’s Climate change is a farce. The whole climate thing is nothing but a way, dreamed up by Communist and other anti American groups, to bankrupt the USA. Obama’s coal actions are nothing but the same. Everybody, including the president, wants the country to be near bankruptcy with everyone dependent on crumbs from Washington to survive.
Biotech is to wild for me. It is UP one day and Down the next, not just pennies but big dollars. I won’t touch it.
I have an IRA fund in Energy on Wall Street. It has dropped in earnings by 50% or more lately. I just read someone was predicting a big revival and growth of the Energy sector.
Any comments.
I’m 84 and not very active in the market since 2008 except for the IRA.
Oil is crashing to $25-$30 on the next major support level. Final stop after that could be as low as $10. That is where it was in 1998. There will be up bounces along the way. Good points to get out, IMO.
Just looking at current record US production after a year of lower prices, you prediction looks pretty solid. US producers have responded to low prices by pumping more oil. This is not a formula for higher prices. Jim
Robert. Really now. Obama’s climate change? Can you be more ridiculous? Apparently you have some secret that you might want to pass along to the 99% of the WORLD’S scientists who have determined that climate change is real and happening, and save your anti-Obama bias for some subject where you might have justification. Blaming everything on Barack Obama doesn’t reflect badly on him, but it sure does reveal a lot about you.
I have viewed the climate debate from afar for years now. My personal observations:
when I was in forestry school in the SW the profs told us about meterology people studying tree rings, obviously looking backward over time. They said there were long, intermediate and short term cycles that seemed to repeat over time, cycles of wet and dry periods. I say what has changed. Follow the money. Obama hands out $20-25 billion for research to schools and special research groups. When you have a government that is so over the top committed to climate change, what would you expect the majority of those “scientists” to say (the ones getting the research dollars)? At 68 years old I have seen these cycles to some extent. When the solution is to follow AL Gore’s formula, sorry, I’m getting off that bus. When Uncle starts taxing industries they don’t like we need to watch out and understand whose hands are getting greased. Too many scientists are arguing just the opposite and when I go to the beach the water level kinda looks like it always has. Baloney!
Look at the historical temperature charts for earth going back millions of years. Where we are now is right in the middle of the ranges. Global warming is the biggest global hoax in history.
Follow the money you say? Yes, you can do that too. Profs want that research money and will lie to get it. Look at how much Algore has made since he started hyping this thing with Hollywood. Check out his huge investment in Oxy Petro. Check out the huge carbon footprint from all of his mansions and his personal jets. He could care less about his ‘footprint’ as he laughs his way to the bank every day.
I will simplify the debate even more by pointing out that the new EPA rules are a reward to the Blue States and an outright attack on the Red States. Jim
It may backfire on the Dems though because this will also be very hard on the “purple” states as well. Jim
Climate change is real, but it is part of the gradual natural warming change that melted the Ice Age glaciers over the last 10,000 years or more. It doesn’t happen all at once, but in fits and starts. Recently, we cooled for a few hundred years, now we are warming. Greenland and Antarctic ice may largely melt over a relatively short period, geologically speaking. Fred is correct about being in about the middle of the range of Earth temperatures, but they are slowly rising – may even turn colder for a period, then rise again. It doesn’t take much.
There seems to be an agenda at work here….
-Demonize the West for being consumers of so much energy…
How could the US have gone to the Moon if not for Real Energy and inventions?
-Create guilt so that the Citizens of the West are less likely to oppose wasteful conservation..
-Push expensive Electric Cars with the idea that they are CLEANer They are not, Batteries are a net ZERO. E-Cars come on the market with a Carbon Footprint which equal 80,000 miles of driving.
-Charging an electric car means that it may actually be running on COAL
-Shut Down Coal fired electricity while China Builds MORE.. Why?
-Make Electricity scarce to cause the Price to increase
-Get rid of cheap incandescent bulbs… (makes sense to do this during the Air Conditioning season.)
-In the Winter, the “wasted” heat from the Bulbs reduces heating needs from other sources. (Just don’t try to heat your doghouse with a couple of CFL or LED bulbs under the floor.. or the dog will bite you.)
-Now, we are told that we do not really need air conditioning?
Why? We have Niagara Falls and the Hoover Dam to provide the energy to cool most of the country.
-Remember the Heat wave that hit Europe about 15 years ago and the resulting Deaths?
Older People died in their hot apartments in historic buildings.
New York City also lost people without AC during heat waves..
Air Conditioning has become a Life Saver
-Blaming the West for Climate Change (Global Warming) creates Hate from the 3rd World and other hotter/poorer Countries..
-Co2 must rise to feed all the New Inhabitants.. Crops yields must be increased.. with More Co2.
Plant Synthesis will result in More Oxygen for the Breathers.
-If the Oceans should rise, some countries will hate the West even more..
-Where Oceans seem to have risen, it is because of the Land Masses shifting as the
Earth’s Plates subduct. Remember the Bangladesh Tsunami that killed a couple of Hundred Thousand.. Some low islands have been submerged in the area.
This happens all the time, but usually very slowly.
-The Ocean is not rising… Venice is Sinking. How can that be blamed on Climate Change?
and finally, If it is so hot Now… why was it possible to grow Grapes in Greenland a
thousand years ago? (That is why it is still called Greenland)
Remember the Wise political Words of a half dozen years ago…
“Don’t let a good crisis go to waste … You can do things that you normally could not do.”
In case you don’t believe my poorly remembered quote..
here is the real source. In the age of the Internet, how can we still have so many
uninformed? This is not political… it is the way we are being used.
https://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=AwrBT.SbL8FVA3MAxxyl87UF;_ylc=X1MDOTU4MTA0NjkEX3IDMgRmcgN1c2gtbWFpbARncHJpZAMxcHlrUjZyZVRMYWRvVzBmOG5ENzlBBG5fcnNsdAMwBG5fc3VnZwMzBG9yaWdpbgNzZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tBHBvcwMzBHBxc3RyA2Rvbid0IHdhc3RlIGEgZ29vZCBjcmlzaXMEcHFzdHJsAzI1BHFzdHJsAzM3BHF1ZXJ5A2Rvbid0IHdhc3RlIGEgZ29vZCBjcmlzaXMgZ28gdG8gd2FzdGUEdF9zdG1wAzE0Mzg3MjQwMjA-?p=don%27t+waste+a+good+crisis+go+to+waste&fr=ush-mail&fr2=sa-gp-search&iscqry=
ASSET DEFLATION ON THE WAY
I own lots of Apple Shares that have a very low basis cost. I was concerned about too much concentration in one stock holding and sold 100 shares at $130.0/share and then put-in a stop loss order for 200 shares @ price of $110.0/share this Spring before it started correcting. I suspected it had topped-out for at least this year when after a second attempt, failed to get any higher than its former 52 week high for 2015. I perceived correctly it was running out of gas (momentum). Now, the market has confirmed my analysis as portfolio managers are dumping it at once. I see it possibly declining to $90.00/share by Sept. at this speed.
I think investors are all pulling back and buying Treasuries and taking possession of precious metals at the retail level. The U.S. Mint is not only out of Silver Eagles but also out of stock of Gold Eagles ( 10z.) and deliveries are a week delayed. Premiums are on the rise, keeping the retail price of gold and silver coins from declining as much as the futures or spot price has recently done. Demand for silver and gold coins is high and the supply is inadequate for the current demand. Clearly, we could have a real ugly October.
Needless to say, Janet Yellen is unlikely to follow-through with ANY interest rate increases this year or next year. The stock market is already in a stealth correction. More bad news from China will just accelerate the decline into the Fall. I sense a deflationary pulse moving into the global economy and stock markets. Definitely time to “take some chips off the table” and hedge by putting-in your protective stops, as well.
I think you are pretty much right on. Stealth deflation IS pounding on the door. We have a few stocks propping up this market but most have headed for the door. And deflation is already hitting Europe.
Just like with China, a lot of people in Greece have not been able to get access to (sell) their stocks for 2 weeks (think about that). What a lot of people don’t know is that Greek banks have partial ownership of Romanian, Bulgarian, Macedonian, Serbian and Albanian banks. Their collapse could spread quickly to other nearby states.
Closer to home, PR has defaulted. The bonds of Wayne Co., Chicago, and Atlantic City are now JUNK. Houston is almost there. Another credit crisis looms. This one will be bad. Very bad. MUCH, MUCH worse than the last one because Obama has wildly spent us another $9 trillion into deep, deep debt…..(the National Debt is now approaching $19 Trillion) with absolutely nothing to show for it (unless you are one of his corrupt political cronies). And of course the Fed has no interest rate or other such tools left in its belt.
Obama has proposed the budgets, but the other political hacks in Congress have largely gone along with him. They could cut him down to size, but they won’t. Those bucks buy votes, after all.
More QE?
The one thing being overlooked, though (it would seem) is ApplePay. That’s where AAPL will do great: they’ve been signing contracts right & left for its use, and nowhere have I seen meaningful estimates of what that will generate. I’m staying in AAPL, but with Call Calendar spreads:) Cheers!
Energy poor countries, who stand to benefit the most, should lead the charge into an alternate energy world. If they discover amazing replacements, then good for them. Energy rich countries should invest in pollution controls and effeciency. Crony energism and politician egoism need to be reigned in. Wise stewardship of our resources and environment needs to prevail again.
I own 27 watches and none are an Apple. Its. a TOY. I have better things to do than play with toys….Keep up the good work…
I owned 1100 shares of apple but lightened up by 300 shares.
By selling far out option I made up a goo9d percentage of my loss.
I believe in the future of Apple and may repurchase some shares.
buy more at this price
On the question of solar power, it is all in the numbers. I have two spreadsheets, one for my home in southern California where the baseline charge is $0.17/kWh and Tier 1 is $0.34/kWh. The system I purchased is guaranteed to 20 years and I have a net metering contract with SCE for 20 years. System payoff at purchase price is in 10 years 8 months with an IRR of 10.61% and an NPV of $61,000+/-
HOWEVER, I appraised a system that was located in Las Vegas, Nevada on a commercial use property where the charge was $0.07/kWh. The IRR was -8.81% and the NPV was -$80,850 for the 25 year system life.
So……..do your math first! If the electricity is expensive and OWNING your own solar panels produces the Return Of the investment in less that 15 years, do it. Otherwise, Don’t. It’s all about an investment in a cost-saving fixture that will produce a reliable stream of savings. Oh yes, BTW, I spent two weeks on fully iterative spread sheets that prove the numbers
Steven
Did you figure the NPV, IRR if you move? Any history on what the real estate market will pay for solar? Any conditions on sale in your SCE contract?
Hi Steven,
Are you able to depreciate the Solar panels against any income savings or are we just talking about the bill reduction savings?
Ron
in Toronto
By the way, didn’t Isaac Newton discover gravity by observing a falling apple? Are we now discovering that the same physical laws apply to the markets as we watch another Apple fall?
I’m a pretty small investor and I went from holding 100 shares of Apple to 50. I made the mistake of buying in at $126 after the last little rally a couple of weeks ago. It immediately started to drop after I bought in and I held my breath until this last session, where I set a stop loss @ $115. It sold at $114.90. I’ll watch it and see what happens but With the China thing and all the spooky talk I am too nervous to buy back in right now.
Most people will disagree but as far as I am concerned Apple has always been a one trick pony now it has become a little more obvious. When you start at the top more often or not
the next step is back. To be fair I do not own any Apple products at all and never will, just
no privacy sorry but I still will blackberry! there is a reason it so good ur privacy is protected. but perhaps most Americans dont care about that I do!
This Global Warming BS is as phoney as a Clinton dollar bill… I have checked historical
temperatures recently and I find that 1952,’54 and ’56 had most of the record heat days
in July… I found a couple record days for 2012 which you will see in any given year…Record
hot days are scattered through different years on back through the years but the early ’50s
appear to have the most heat records !!!
And what about all those horrible hurricanes we were supposed to get. NOT
Apple is like all other stocks… Investors enthusiasm /pessimism serves to change the
price from time to time…People went wild about talking with their thumbs and Iphones
was a big hit, now there’s lots of other people making smart phones… Apple will stay
down until they come up with another ” WOW ” gadget that no one else has !!!
worried about which bill will have a woman on it? simple make a new $3.00 dollar bill, and can’t decide which woman to put on it? another easy one. Hillary.
Obama is merely complying with what he said he would do in a radio interview in 2004. I believe it was in San Francisco. He simply said with regard to coal powered energy, they can build them, but they will be taxed so heavily they will go bankrupt! Just one more power play to strip the American people and make us go broke.
Apple is no longer a US company. As China goes, so goes Apple. Too bad this “expert” didn’t notice that.
Mike, the fact that Apple is off 15% has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with its products and has ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING to do with a MASSIVE topping of a stock market that has no market breadth, near record P/E ratios, technical and cyclical breakdown and exhaustion world wide, world wide geo-political problems that are ANTI business, Debt to GDP that is topping out as we speak, a CRASHING commodities market that SCREAMS DEFLATION in an inflation necessary money and banking market, converging WAR CYCLES and ECONOMIC Cycles, MASSIVE CHINESE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE AND STOCK MARKET BUBBLE BUBBLE BURSTING, and a MASSIVE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS, that is quickly getting out of control in Europe…Yeah, this is JUST like putting the BULL on the cover of TIME Magazine. You can basically now put a fork in the market, just like Larry Edelson is saying and HE even is not understanding of how bad this correction will be…
Shutting down coal is just so much “yellow snow.” The Pope nailed the problem – people can’t keep breeding like rabbits. Less people, less “climate change.” The “scientific” answers now are just so many drips of water. Who has figured the eco-cost of solar panels mfg, cell/smart phone mfg.? And who is going to give those things up?? We’ve overfished, over plowed, cut down too much rain forest, added too many methane producers (animals and people), And we excrete where we eat (ocean). Good Luck
with green until the whole world cooperates. Try dealing with the Islamic state on that!
Why not spend money on cleaner coal (China) and productive transformation of CO2?
The real problem with renewables is their macro economic impact. The US became a prosperous world power using Texas oil wells that returned $100 for every dollar invested. With the surge in energy prices beginning in the 70s our general economic and wage growth has stagnated because we no longer have cheap abundant energy to fuel our expansion. $100 oil has given us sub par growth and actual falling wages. Shale oil won’t matter because it only returns two or there bucks for every dollar invested. It’s too expensive to help our overall economy. Renewables are worse until they become cheap and abundant which just doesn’t seem likely. Forcing us into renewables now guarantees a declining standard of living for everyone. If you want to switch to renewables because it makes you feel good at least be intellectually honest and say so. Don’t tell us it promises a prosperous future because it simply can’t. As for Global Warming, I challenge anyone out there to demonstrate how any of it has passed the strict demands of the Scientific Method in any way. It’s all conjecture and predictions which really places it in the category of religion. Believing in Global Warming does not make it a scientific fact. Even the EPA admits that if we attained zero carbon emissions by 2030 it would have the effect of only one quarter of one degree by 2100. Let’s deal with very real problems like the overpopulation of the planet by government brainwashed ideologues. Jim
They should invest in energy efficiency.the market for this app is unlimited
Quite Right!
Apple’s PE ratio is MUCH lower than many other tech companies.
If Developing countries don’t do something as well, anything we do is pretty much a waste of $. President Obama said something like electricity bills go sky high and that building/retrofit a coal-fired plant would bankrupt a company:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlTxGHn4sH4
Reader Joe K says “Doesn’t sound like you critics can see beyond your wallets.”; when apparently speaking about alternate energy, including solar energy. Then talks about solar water heating. I have used solar water heating and have no problem with solar water heating so long as it is not used to justify solar power. Doing so is not seeing beyond your nose. They are not the same. When cloudy periods limited my hot water supply I simply switched to the electric water heater; but I could not force my neighbors to buy my surplus hot water when the sun shined. The infrastructure of solar power and solar water heating are not the same; just as apples and oranges do not taste the same just because they are both fruit.
I am fairly new to the Dow Theory, but took your advice to buy Apple (focus list) and have done nothing but lose money. I am now down 10% and am wondering how accurate are your predictions. Should I now dump this loser???????
A band aid on a gapping wound? If anyone is seriously concerned about the environment, population expansion should be discussed. Should we wait until the world’s resources are depleted? Richard Korkowski
Sind Sie ein Dumbkopf??
Immer ist es Apfel über Alles!! Es ist wie wir sind!!
Until China and India have an interest in cleaning up the globe, whether it be air or water, there is very little the U.S.A. can do. We only contribute a fraction of carbon into the atmosphere that certainly does not “cause” global warming. It is important to do other things that help the environment such as converting coal plants to natural gas, convert trucks from diesel to natural gas, etc. These are things we have the technology to do now and alternative energy is still not perfected enough to be economical. Obama is, as usual, promoting his agenda rather than being straight with the American people as to the cost to each of us.
I believe that we should conserve and use other forms of energy., but scientific studies prove even if every car, industry etc were shut down . it would take years for the planet to start to cool down. Yes we need to leave a planet for the our children but they deserve a comfortable life, not worrying about paying a $500 electric bill. I’ll guarantee you Al Gore will be in his mansion with his AC on high not bothered by his carbon footprint!!!
There is no doubt that climate change occurs. It has been going on for several billion years and that has been without human contribution. Scientists have noted a series of cycles largely based upon sun activity that results in periodic warming and cooling. John Casey, president of the Space and Science Research Corporation has recently written a book titled “Dark Winter”, in which he predicts we are at the beginning of a 30 year cold spell that will be unlike anything we have seen before. Man does not contribute to climate change in any significant way.
Well Rich,Im glad you re so sure,Nearly 9 billion humans on the planet,think about it.
If one believes that global warming is not individual but nature cycles. There is not a thing one can do to change it….I do still believe in conservation and new ideas and invention. For government, who is going broke to subsidize it.. Is only fueling the crisis ahead of failure.
Apple, like so many stocks. Every down turn, leaves one wondering if the bounce will come back. More and more it makes one skittish on buying back in.
Who are these analysts and why should we care what THEIR expectations are?
Maybe I’m naive, but disappointing analysts is simply that, disappointing what they state as the benchmark. What happens when they misread expectations?
What stake do the analysts have in the process? If an analysts has a certain bias against a company, one simple extra zero, or comma can be the making or breaking of a stock or a company.
I would rather know what Apple’s expectations are and if they are meeting them or not.
What stake do the analysts have in the process?
Well, Apple stared out as a tech company with innovative high tech, making and selling PC’s Apple I, II etc. Then it moved into a packaging company putting other peoples tech into smaller packages with some innovative software, but quickly subcontracted fabrication overseas and became a marketing company. Their latest marketing adventure, iwatch, is failing as it addresses no need. Apple bugs await the next marketing gimmick with much hope, but, Apple “wither goest thou?”
Global warming, resource depletion? Easter island is a lesson for all. They found paradise, overpopulated it, plundered its resources for short term gain, and reduced most of them to zero, no trees no wildlife. Then they all died, only a few may have escaped.
We are repeating that process on a global scale, burn the coal, burn the oil, dig up all the high grade ores, pollute the sky, air, and water we need for survival to maximize profits before we die. Growing the economy is OK for a while but at some point things have to level out or cause a collapse. Its been said the Earth can perhaps support about half its present population for 1000 years with 95% recycling and reuse of non renewable resources. At the present rate most non-renewables will be gone within 200 years or less.
I bought 500 shares when the equivalent was about $16.45 years ago and enjoy a large dividend check. And, you’re suggesting selling some shares?!! Are you nuts?!
I have no intentions to sell apple. I see it as a buying opportunity.
Apple is still making more money than any company on the planet. They are the leader in mobile and that is where everything tech is heading. The stock market is manipulated. I think smart money invests in Apple and holds it.
I said right from the outset I had no intention of buying one, and that I thought it was an overpriced, unnecessary accessory. Apple hasn’t said much about sales trends since then.
In July, people celebrate the 4th of July (in the U.
Coralina stone pool deck tiles are strategically slice to reveal gorgeous fossil patterns.
That being said, a powerful tool that I have been using a lot lately,
with great success, is what’s called a Treasure, Wealth or
Miracle Box.
Why users still uuse to read news papers when in this technollogical globe the whole
thinng is available on net?