China is a mess.
Market Roundup
Its benchmark stock market plunged more than 6% overnight, while its money-market rates surged higher.
Its currency remains under pressure thanks to massive credit concerns and hundreds of billions of dollars in capital outflows.
Its economy is slowing dramatically amid widespread weakness in sectors like heavy manufacturing, mining, and real estate.
But to listen to the Chinese tell it, as reported in today’s New York Times, everything is just peachy. And when the news isn’t peachy, the Chinese have a solution for that too. Hide the truth.
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Has China really solved all of its economic problems? |
In the first of two stories, headlined “China Gives Glimpse of Its Solutions to Economic Problems,” Chinese central bankers say they won’t devalue the yuan to spur the economy. Chinese finance officials say they will increase deficit spending this year to boost growth. And still other officials say the economy will seamlessly transition from a manufacturing/export-based growth model to one based on services and consumer spending.
But in the second of two stories, headlined “As China’s Economic Picture Turns Uglier, Beijing Applies Airbrush,” we learn how China is clamping down on bad news and the free-flow of data and information.
Looking for unbiased reporting from Chinese media? You won’t get it because President Xi Jinping just visited the top three state news outlets and laid out what was expected of them. Specifically, he said that, “All news media run by the party must work to speak for the party’s will and its propositions, and protect the party’s authority and unity.” Okay then.
The Times added that two private research firms, Market Economics of the U.K. and Caixin Media of China, had to stop reporting some factory survey data back in September after pressure from China’s statistics bureau. And detailed data on foreign-exchange activity by private banks mysteriously disappeared from a central bank-produced report in January.
My simple question: If things are so great, why would the Chinese go to those kinds of lengths? I think you know the answer.
So what does this all mean to investors like you? Well, you have finance ministers, central bankers, and other key global policymakers flying into Shanghai right now for the latest G-20 meeting. Chinese officials are clearly trying to put on a brave face for the world.
In addition to the comments in The New York Times from earlier, policymakers are saying things in the Financial Times like, “For the foreseeable future, our demand will remain fairly strong.” Chinese central bankers are also urging more deficit-financed spending, and leaking the news to the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development and the U.S. Treasury Secretary, among others, are practically begging for massive injections of government spending. Treasury’s Jacob Lew told the Journal “We have to commit to using all policy levers,” while the IMF urged “coordinated demand support, using available fiscal space to boost public investment and complement structural reform.” Yesterday’s intraday market bounce was at least partially inspired by hope those calls would be heeded.
“If the markets are hoping for true, concrete action … they’ll be disappointed.” |
But if the markets are hoping for true, concrete action … rather than more happy talk and doctored data … I believe they’ll be disappointed. Past G-20 communiqués and pledges have proven to be nothing more than empty promises. Political willpower is lacking both here and abroad for a huge new global stimulus push. And even government officials are admitting that the latest monetary policy measures are failing to achieve anything.
So I’m heading into this weekend with a cautious outlook and a defensive stance. I’m taking every bit of talk and data out of China with a huge shaker full of salt. And most importantly, I’m going a step further to help you sort through the market’s confusing action.
Specifically, I’m participating in a critical, well-timed webinar on Monday, Feb. 29 at 2 p.m. Eastern, when I’ll share my take on the latest market developments. It’s called “Finding Profits as Markets Falter and Gold Soars,” and it’s entirely free to attend. All you have to do is register here.
You won’t just hear from me, either. I’ll be joined by noted gold and market experts Brien Lundin, Brent Cook, and Peter Schiff. So I expect the webinar to be a lively, interactive affair. I hope to “see” you there.
And as always, feel free to weigh in on my take on China, the G-20, and government stimulus efforts in the comment section below.
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Stock market turmoil. Crazy interest-rate policy. Ridiculous lending. Politics. You were talking about a little of everything at the website in the last 24 hours.
Reader Howard referenced the last major credit crisis, and how we’re still dealing with its aftereffects now: “Many will remember the period in 2008/09 when the markets fell apart but weren’t allowed to settle. Intervention came from such luminaries as Warren Buffett, who called for the intervention of government at the time. So now mom and pop taxpayers are on the hook for the damage, which is still being kicked down the road.
“Until markets can find their true bottom and the chips fall where they may, true confidence will not return. We need to address this mess as a first step in restoring what we value in our freedoms and the country our forefathers built. There are many other things to do and a bit of guts and grit will help.”
Reader Badger10 referenced yesterday’s intraday rally, but said it doesn’t change the bear case in the longer term: “When we start paying down our debt, I’ll start buying stocks. Short-covering rallies are not the way as these are hope rallies. Enjoy the recession as we are there — and it’s not discounted in the market.”
When it comes to lending activity, Reader Ted F. said: “It seems the same silly stuff keeps happening over and over: Subprime loans here, subprime loans there, then the subprime loans go bad, just like before. So do they make subprime loans for consumer electrics and fancy phones next?
“Why does it look like a bunch of chickens running around when the wolf gets in the hen house? When are they going to start paying people to borrow money or buy something other than the usual rebates?”
Meanwhile, Reader Chuck B. brought up the subject of negative interest rates, saying: “Mike has a good point about what ZIRP and NIRP do to bank earnings. In Japan, the safe business is booming, as people pull their money out of the banks to keep it at home. It may lose value due to inflation, but fees and negative interest won’t be a factor, at least. In this country, you’d better buy a Bushmaster with your safe, and never sleep.”
Finally, on the subject of politics, Reader Al said: “In regard to Trump’s momentum, if it continues, we will certainly have Hillary in the White House. At this point, unless Rubio and Cruz flip a coin to decide who is out to eliminate the vote-splitting between them, Trump will be triumphant. As fed up as we are regarding Washington insiders, the biggest losers will be us if Hillary (the ultimate insider) is elected.”
But Reader J.S. said: “I am not sure I buy into the fact that Hillary beats Trump if he is the GOP candidate. There are many people who do not like Hillary for her ethics and political beliefs. I also believe there are many people who are not sold on Rubio. I am not sure he possesses core beliefs, and it is obvious that he is the preferred choice of the GOP elite/establishment wing of the party.
“If the party elders pull out all the tricks to derail Trump, many people will stay home for the election or go third party. They will perceive, and rightly so, that it will be business as usual in Washington, with just lip service being paid to crucial issues like immigration and trade pacts.”
Thank you for sharing your views. Frankly, I’m aghast at some of the monetary policy decisions being made around the world — and I believe they’re making things worse, rather than better, in the markets.
My credit-based indicators also suggest we have more pain to come, and that the down-cycle is far from over. So I continue to advocate a strategy of safe, defensive investing. For more details, make sure you sign up for the webinar I’m participating in on Monday that I mentioned earlier. Here’s the link again.
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Apple (AAPL) is continuing its full-court press over iPhone privacy. The tech company is pleading its case to allies in Congress, while also planning to tell a federal judge that it shouldn’t have to give the FBI a “back door” way to defeat the security measures on its smartphones.
Did you know the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates by more than 300 basis points, rather than just 25 points? Okay, not officially. But “unofficially” if you use the so-called Wu-Xia “shadow funds rate” cited in this Bloomberg story. The obscure measure attempts to factor in non-rate factors like forward guidance and QE, and come up with an effective funds rate that includes them.
Speaking of interest rates, they keep falling in overseas markets where negative policy rates are causing turmoil and herding behavior. The yield on Japan’s 40-year government bonds just sank below 1%, while yields on bonds all the way out to the 10-year maturity point are trading in negative territory. Where will this crazy train end up? Stay tuned to find out.
A vigorous storm system moving through the South and Mid-Atlantic caused several deaths and widespread property damage in the last two days. Tornadoes, heavy rain, and strong storms struck Louisiana, Florida, Alabama, and Virginia, among other states.
So what do you think of the idea that the Fed has really tightened by more than 300 basis points? Or the fact rates in countries like Japan keep sinking and sinking? As for Apple, is it right to continue its privacy fight against the FBI? Let me know what you’re thinking in the comment section below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
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The Chinese have been lying about their economy for quite a while now, much like the US government and their media lackeys (New York Time, Washington Post, etc.). Hopefully the Chinese will reject the failed solutions of the IMF, OECD, and the hopelessly incompetent Jacob Lew. It’s obvious that the banksters only care about their survival and to heck with the people of Japan, Europe, US, etc.
Well said
It costs dough to rattle their sabers. Iam glad they are getting a rude awakening–Let them eat a tank. The commie govt has stolen much of the technology from the West mainly the USA except for the technology secrets they bought from Bill Clinton. mAYBE WE CAN PURCHASE SOME OF THEIR NAVY SHIPS FOR PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR.
Is someone waging economic or currency warfare against China?
Hints trump declarations.
Trump is not an idiot savant.
Trump is a dealer who became an actor.
They say his supporters are very dumb.
Dumb animals have keener instincts than sophisticated urbanites. Only ultra keen urbanites understand the method in madness.
Hi Mike
Many on this site are use to officials massaging the truth. This is one site I visit regularly because of your articles and the exchanges we share. For me this site is more worthwhile than either the Washington Post or the New York Times as they also give self opinionated commentary in excuse for news. China is a work in progress with almost insurmountable challenges. Their foreign exchange holdings won’t be helped without a continuing export drive into the future. To be perfectly honest I wouldn’t like the Chinese leaders job. They have had tremendous progress over the years mixed with the predictable stuff ups. That said, our fund has never been in such a highly liquid position. We are not sure which dam is going to break first.
One further thought
Free trade is a great step forward where for example we need to import say 10% of our oil from the middle east. Then if we balance these purchases by selling them beef or farm produce then everyone benefits. It is only when we import say cars for example that threatens our own manufacturing plants and the subsequent closing of businesses and loss of jobs then this trade works against us. There are many examples we could all think of. This is why we need someone smarter than we have at the moment. Anyway I’d better shut up now or I’ll blow my top.
If Apple loses out in the fight with the gestapo… err… FBI, it has been pointed out elsewhere, that there are forms of encryption available elsewhere that can still keep data secret from Big Brother.
i notice bill gates chimed in. a good opportunity to sell more microsoft products to uncle sam by taking his side in this controversy.
Except Gates sided with Apple (Cook).
in the guardian:
Bill Gates backs FBI in battle with Apple over San Bernardino killer’s phone.
US government is asking for a particular case, and Apple should comply, says Microsoft co-founder Gates.
gates will do whatever sells microsoft products.
It is written in the book of exodus that before
he let the people go pharaoah threatened moses
to knock it off saying the next time you see my face you will die. It was credible but just a bluff.
Ironically they never met face to face again.
They never got within eyesight at the red sea.
There is no irony when God goes to war with gods. Someone prevails. Someone perishes. Who prevailed? Who perished?
Choose wisely.
Buy bullion gold and stash it somewhere safe!
The bulls are back. The G20 troops have saved the day or stocks are overbought again.
G20 jawboning and syria truce should soften gold and firm stocks short term. When stocks held lows at 1800 s&p and gold stalled at $1250 that was a reprieve for stocks but not a game changer. Shorting DB FCX etc.is more vulnerable to a short squeeze than long gold to the curse of goldman sachs sub $1000 post january 2016.
Comments by Chinese Officials read like sayings in fortune cookies, the only one who may be able to understand them could be Alan Greenspan, the inventor of the american fortune cookie.
Greenspan looks like a mandarin and speaks like a mandarin.
Tight loan restrictions are in order. Individuals need to understand the philosophy of saving. Back in the 1980s the term “disposable income” was coined. Unfortunately, that term is imbedded in the minds of our citizen population. Saving is a lost cause for the majority amongst us and being seriously in debt is what many consider normal. Individual personal saving and unnecessary individual spending correlates with our national debt and our inability to cut the federal budget. Private individuals, politicians and legislators need to understand our severe debt situation and act like there is no such thing as “disposable income”.
Thanks for the lecture, Al. I’m sure if you were in charge, we wouldn’t have any national debt concerns. Oh, by the way Al, they save like crazy in Japan; how’s that economy working out?
Japan’s economy ranks third worldwide with the US and China ranking 1st and 2nd respectively. in terms of nominal GDP, the Japanese economy has been facing hard times since 2008, like most world economies. Economic growth has hovered between 0.5–2% in recent times. That is very much in line with US growth during the same period.
Phil
Your right to a point your dealing with an under he mattress economy. Yes the people are saving and thus Abenomics is not working as it is based on increased consumer spending. The people of Japan just will not buy into it the same way the Chinese consumers will not.
Mr. Cook, Take the phone, hack it , dismantle it, destroy it. Print out all the info from the phone and give the FBI that binder so they can sludge through it. Then walk away, never to return.
Besides, shouldn’t the NSA have all that info?
Is the interest rate 25BP or 300BP? Who knows? And what difference, at this point, does it make? The Fed can’t tighten, because they will blow up too-big-to-fail borrowers, like Uncle Sam and most corporations. The Fed can’t NOT tighten, because they will blow up too-big-to-fail lenders, like pension funds and insurance companies. 25BP? 300BP? Either way, there will be big trouble.
There is no good way out of the mess that the Fed has enabled. It only remains to be seen which bad way out they will choose. I expect they will take the way that puts as much pain as possible on individuals, pension funds, and so on, and lets the Government and banks off free.
I PERSONALLY DON’T CARE WHAT JOE TOM AL JIM TOM OR MICKEY MOUSE THINK. WASTE OF TIME TO READ SOMEONES OPINION OTHER THAN THE ONES I’M PAYING FOR.
Ours are probably worth as much as theirs. Jim
Hi Jim. Been reading miscellaneous blogs, websites, and such. I have seen many of your comments, and my email is MillenniumWright@gmail, if you would like to participate in an off grid, ongoing discussion. Gonna hit up 1000 buck gold too. But i need to discern which one is trademarked first, haha.
Michael
Simply read the article only if you do not want “shared” opinions.
Jim S. Ten heads are better than one
I.c. Did someone make you scroll down the page where the comments are?
Let’s see. China’s in trouble. Europe is going down the tubes. Japan is a zombie. The Middle East is on the verge of Armageddon. The U.S. Is slowing and edging toward recession. “Who ya gonna call?” Jim
Jim…Looks like we’re gonna call either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump……possibly Sanders, except he looks like he’s about to have a heart attack every time he shows up on the news…or possibly Rubio…….but he looks like a 10th grader, and he’s a pretty boy, so that means that the legacy of skirt chasing by JFK and Bill Clinton will soon be followed by another POTUS.
What a predicament, huh?
You didn’t mention B.O. I’ve noticed him looking appreciatively at attractive women. ‘
‘Hard to believe Michelle has him completely whipped.
You mean Marco “Bubbles” Rubio, the gay blade, who attended those kind of parties.
Trump Org plays the mainstream media like a fiddle. Hint Bush is low energy.Hint Cruz is nasty. Hint Rubio is sweaty. Hint Hillary is the worst. Hint Scalia pillow. Hint the emperor has a really bad tailor. Hint if you mess with the Don we know where you live.
Yes your right Jim. Looking at everything you have outlined I am scratching my head when reading that the Dow is up over 200 points. Definitely the Crazy Train has pulled into the station. Hong Kong and Japan is following suite this morning.
The Fed ans friends can pull a short squeeze on stocks more easily than repress gold to new lows since the 2016 wake up call. Physical gold is a far better risk reward play now short and long term than short stocks.
Zbig, i am gathering intelligent folks for an off grid discussion. The purpose is personal enlightenment only, for our respective peasant lives. I am MillenniumWright@gmail
The establishment created Hillary and her following. I was certain it couldnt get worse than her but now I see it can. The American people are as angry as they are corrupt. Trump may win this election, and the world will no longer show us submission. It only takes one emp.
Michael
First the Pope takes a dump on Donald Trump. Now Vincente Fox drops the “F” bomb on him. Is this a great election season, or what?
The most entertaining I’ve seen.
You got it Jim…. ROFLMAO… yeee haaa!!!
Mule
Wow,no surprises here–channel surfing the other day,I heard a man who had done business in China for 10 years..I about fell of my chair when he likened the Chinese Stock market to gambling at a casino-comments like this bring many words to mind,and “safety”,”security”,and “sanity” are not among them.Like most sensible Americans,I trust the Chi-Coms about as far as I can throw my rusty 2000 Chevy Venture van!
First he dispatches the Establishment puppet Jeb, silences Slick Willie, lures Mitt out of his cozy rat hole, and I just saw Speaker Ryan end his own career. It may end up being an “enemy of my enemies deal”. The clincher for me may be the prospect of one smoking hot First Lady. Jim
I’m from the Texas Republic so Tue. I will vote for Cruz, but anytime Trump slaps down one of them chickendab rinos I root for him. If Trump is the nominee he gets my vote. I dang sure aint one of them “I’m With Stupid, Hillary 2016” people. (<:
Mule
Smokin’ hot, and money loving, too.
When gold prices were peaking (no pun intended) China was buying gold. Why aren’t they now when prices are at such a discount.
Ednmund…They are still buying Gold by the tens of tons. The last reported amount in Jan was 19Tons. I haven’t looked for February yet. Also, keep in mind that everything they mine is kept and is a state secret. China has alot of problems, but they are sitting on alot of Gold and dumping UST’s by the 100’s of Millions. All of the close hold information is not divulged to the public. Remember the Chinese Yuan was recently added to IMF”s SDR and this happened much sooner than everyone expected. Don’t forget how ambitious they were with AIIB and BRICS and how they were trying to tank the U.S. Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency. There are those who believe China will step out soon onto the World’s stage and say, “Here’s our Gold”, “Where’s yours bitches”!!
Apple: The product belongs to the company as marketed. The company is not owned by a fascist government is it? If the company changes my product then I need a full refund! So, if you want to ruin an honest business and an honest business product then enslave Apple.
So sad to pressure a good company.
I guess our gov officials didnt read the fourth amendment to the constitution or they do not care to abide by it Seems plain enough. GOVERNMENT OVERREACH!!! .
we are living in the Age of Deception , countries run by Crooks what can we expect from CROOKS ? and the most important we need to pick the LESSER of All evils for our next Prez
and Pray that America return to GOD asap
GOD BLESS you all
If a third party had imposed these crooks on us it would be one thing. The problem is that we have voted for these people. We have no one to blame but ourselves. God helps those that help themselves. Jim
Often it does seem that God helps those who help themselves… to what you thought was your stuff.
Who more rhan the Don knows how to deal with organized crime. Will the Don turn states evidence on the kleptocrats or is it just a hope?
Too many of the Apple comments I read here show an uninformed comments evidencing little interest in the real issues that confound Apple. Please be on the lookout for a congressional hearing next week where Apple’s attorney will demonstrate why the government’s position is just wrong and to some degree, dishonest in their claim that they are only seeking the information held in only one iPhone.
Great to see Mike Larson featuring gold..it’s pretty much become the only game in town. I share his view that the financial emperors’ not wearing clothes..and gold is the ultimate refuge, when the fan starts to get hit..
There is nothing new under the sun. Gold is flight capital. Its price is a barometer of ultra high risk.
To be brutal, what did nazis transport to argentina after unconditional surrender in 1945?
The only thing both widely acceptable and easily trabsportable. Chinese gold is not just to back a reserve currency but for its leaders to take elsewhere if the regime falls. Same as it ever was.
The Chinese government wants to stay in power. So they look over their shoulder at every even slightly disturbing sound. They are dumping steel at below cost on the world market to support their steel industry which is facing 50% unemployment and workers taking to the streets. I don’t think they can get away with the tanks in the streets again. They are spending a ton of money trying to hijack the South China Sea islands. They are facing increased competition in the world market, India is making hobby goods that last year were made in China. I just bought a cast plastic Craftsman brand tool box that was made in Israel, not China like last year. A Kosher tool box, what will they think of next? The last thing the Chinese government wants is unhappy people in the streets, but that is starting to happen even with big brother watching every corner and internet censorship.
Ted F…Keep in mind that China not only recently stood up these islands, they have a seaport in Southern Pakistan, now Syria and recently negotiated a seaport in Djibouti. I haven’t seen info on it lately, but to my knowledge the negotiations were completed. They will have the entire M.E., North Africa, Indian Ocean and South China Sea locked down.
The demand for necessary goods and services will always remain intact and China has a formidable population, these people all need to eat and live healthy lifestyles. A change in policy in China will ultimately cause capital flow from certain sectors to others. All that is happening is a migration of wealth.
About the Trumpster
In an e-mail to another source I compared “The Donald” to another but already spent phenomenon; the Arnold Schwarzenegger California Governor Experience. In a Recall, he came to us full of the pride and pomp of the Alpha-male, Mexican Strong-man, super Conservative variety. In office his failed Petition Drive changed all that, and he slowly disappeared into the “Liberal” background from which he came.
If our “Donald” is of a similar vein but at the national level, he could become President. If so what would be a similar stumbling block for him, a Credit,Currency,Economic crash? If this also begins a reversion to kind, might we see a kind of Hillery-in-drag figure replace the Brash know-it-all. Is there, under it all just another kind of manipulative Me- first puppet, and puppet-master all rolled into one?
Just a thought!
The only thing shwarzenwgger anf trump share is some germanic ancestry. You are talking out of your hat. You dont undetstand what’s at stake.
Schwarenegger is a 120 iq puppet. Trump is no Einstein but about 140 iq high roller on a roll.
What if the FBI and most people start thinking that anyone with unhackable data on their phone is obviously a criminal? Maybe anyone with an iPhone is a criminal? When someone pleads the fifth, don’t most people think that that person is guilty of something?
Everyone is guilty of SOMETHING, even if it is only that people have a right not to incriminate themselves. Of course, those in power don’t like the idea of privacy, and if they have their way, EVERYTHING you do will be available for public viewing at any time. Or maybe just for their own personal delectation. Will you like that?
When lip service becomes more important than truth and understanding and debt (aka stimulus, increased government and regulation) become more important that realism and finally when corruption becomes obvious to everyone then what’s next?
Nothing new about China,Extreme poverty was covered up years ago during the Olympics held there and we do a bit of cover up ourselves.The government in my opinion will keep devaluing the dollar and pay dollar debt with penny dollars just like other countries do.Unless greed is checked down we go!History shows all the great empires eventually crashed and never really made it back and the rich still are rich and the poor,poorer.,william
What happens to ETFs when markets decline? People will want to withdraw money, and ETFs will need to sell holdings to meet the demand. Volume sales will drive down prices, making ETFs fall even farther. Inverse ETFs should profit, however, as prices fall.
Chuck Burton…As you are probably aware, when markets really tank, you can’t move, trade or sell anything. Traders can not be reached. They go off line and won’t answer the phone either. All you will be able to do is watch what you use to have disappear. The Invisible Hand and the PPT have been going to work, but they won’t be around forever. People may want to withdraw money, but “when” capital controls are implemented you’ll be limited there also. Study Cypress and Greece, because what happened there will be the model for the future. Remember the words “Force Majeure”. ***Only 1% of what is needed, is available to insure the FDIC*** If there is ever a run on the banks, they’ll close the doors. Plus, banks don’t carry large amounts of cash anymore. I would state that if you only wanted to withdraw $30,000. right now from your bank, it would take your bank hours, if not a day to collect the cash.
U.S. companies surrender technology to foreign countries in order to do business. Much of that technology was paid for by U.S. taxpayers through research tax credits. It would not be protectionist of U.S. to require any Company transferring tech developed using tax credits to refund the credits taken. Further, if patented items transferred then the patent is deemed to have expired. Such action would result in repatriation of many companies.
Peter Schiff, that crackpot gold perma-bull that’s lost his lemmings, I mean followers upwards of 70% over the last 5 years makes used car salesmen look downright saintly. You can be sure he didn’t finance his multi-million dollar mansion in CT following his own advice. Say what you will about Edelson he’s been on the right side of the gold trade for the last 5 years.
If Trump comes to power it will mean a sea change in global policy from negative to positive. Trump Putin and others will reorganize the debt issue without a banking crisis and the fallout therof. The world economy will go rhrough hard times but will emerge in good health. Cheap solar can replace dirty fossil fuels and free and fair trade can improve quality of life for the masses in a way that corrupt oligarchy can only suppress. Gold and some sectors of the stock market will rise moderately on a demand based recovery.
If not then all bets are off. Gold will become flight capital and possibly subject to confiscation with all that implies. This scenario does not imply a sudden climax rather a terminal prognosis for the political economy in the next few years. Trust in God and prepare.
Very few people understand what is happening to them… When, not if, the US goes down the rest of the world will rapidly follow and you don’t want to think about the 3 years of Turmoil that will follow…Your money will not save you !!!
The rest of the world is *leading, friend, not following, what the U.S. is about to do.