 |
If you were shocked by the extreme wealth inequality in America (see What could be worse than the Great Depression?), the extreme polarization in U.S. politics (Is the GOP collapsing?) and the potentially disastrous consequences globally (Five Black Swans) …
Then brace yourself for the inescapable truths I will reveal next: These same trends are even more extreme and dangerous in the world’s second-largest economy — China.
And no matter how distant China may seem in this topsy-turvy political season, never underestimate its impact on the global economy, U.S. corporate profits, or your own investments.
My Forecast
Reaching this conclusion has not been an easy journey. It has taken me several decades and many thousands of miles.
I learned Chinese in 1967. I specialized in Asian studies for my Ph.D. I have traveled to Asia repeatedly since 1979. I have pored over thousands of pages of documents on China from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. Congress, major research think-tanks, plus the Chinese Government, itself. And I can make this forecast with confidence:
China today is a volcano ready to erupt. The longer the eruption is delayed, the greater its impact will be on the global economy. And of all the countries in the world, it’s the United States, China’s largest trading partner, that could feel some of the greatest economic shock waves.
The likely scenario: A recession in China triggers political and labor unrest, followed by an even deeper economic decline. Beijing responds with a combination of economic stimulus and brutal crackdowns. But it’s too little, too late. China’s ascendant middle classes and entrenched elites tolerated the central government’s tough-fisted controls and corruption only as long as they could continue to reap the material benefits of a growing economy. As those benefits disappear, tolerance turns to turmoil.
Hard to believe? Then consider the hard-nosed realities …
The IMF Highlights China’s Income Inequality
Until around 1990, the IMF reports, Asian economies grew strongly and evenly. Hundreds of millions of people from all strata of society participated in the economic "miracles" of China and the Asian Tigers. Middle classes grew by leaps and bounds. Poverty plunged.
But in the early 1990s, Asia reached a monumental fork in the road. Its growth trajectory made a sharp turn. And it has not changed course ever since.
Yes, the growth continued. But it was far more imbalanced, tilted heavily toward the rich. And yes, Asia gave global GDP a huge boost. But it did so with ever greater vulnerability to political instability.
The Gini Index, a widely accepted measure of bad income distribution, rose in Indonesia, Hong Kong, India and even in supposedly mature economies like New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore.
|
But the worst and most dramatic changes took place in China, where income inequality rose far more than in any other country in Asia.
While India’s Gini index rose by about 7 points and Indonesia’s by 10, China’s rose by nearly 20.
And even this measure greatly understates the huge regional discrepancies in China – between the impoverished countryside and the industrial megalopolises; between the small coastal provinces (see blue in map) and the giant Western regions (brown).
No matter how you slice the numbers, China has clearly suffered the most radical shift from equality to inequality among all large countries and across all regions of the world.
Since 1990, inequality in China has surged over ten times faster than it has in the advanced OECD countries, in the world’s Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs), and in Asia’s Low Income Countries (LICs).
|
Meanwhile, even regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America have made improvements during this period.
These numbers don’t lie, and I have seen it with my own eyes: When Elisabeth and I walk down Wangfujing Avenue in Beijing or stroll in the Pudong district of Shanghai, for instance, we see scenes that bring the stats to life in dazzling color.
We see China’s super-rich lining up for diamond-set coats at Cartier. We see them inspecting Phantom Coupes at the Rolls-Royce dealership. And at almost the same time, we’re beset by the wretched ultra-poor, peddling counterfeit Rolexes, refilled mineral water bottles, or Mao’s Little Red Book.
 |
Everywhere, the most-widely revered gods in urban China today are the god of wealth and the god of power.
In the long march toward conspicuous consumption, even Confucian traditions — respect for elders, parents and those of lower social status — have largely fallen by the wayside.
Of course virtually no one — inside or outside China — advocates for a return of the forced (and oft contrived) equality of the Maoist era. But this rapid shift to the opposite extreme has shocking consequences …
Protests, Revolts and Chaos in the Making
I cannot predict when or how the tautly stretched fabric of Chinese society and politics will snap. But I don’t have to. Because it’s already beginning to happen:
|
Revolts. The 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising may have been the most widely known to the outside world. But it was not the last nor the most widespread.
In terms of the number of provinces impacted, the protests by the Falun Gong religious movement a decade later was broader. Ten years after that, the riots in Urumchi, the capital of the minority Uyghur region of Northwest China, were still larger. And the more recent Pro-Democracy protests were the biggest of all.
Year-by-year, province-by-province, protests in China are growing progressively more impactful.
|
Labor protests. Even if you accept the government’s official count, the number of major labor protest incidents in China has been surging.
Workers are demanding higher wages, better benefits or simply an end to outrageously abusive working conditions.
Crackdowns. Under President Xi Jinping, the Chinese government is cracking down on popular dissent with growing impunity, audacity and ferocity.
And the U.S. Congress has taken notice. In its latest annual report, the Congressional-Executive Commission on China pulls no punches, declaring that:
- Human rights and rule of law conditions in China have deteriorated sharply, especially since Xi Jinping came to power in November 2012.
- The Chinese government has broadly silenced dissent, suppressed human rights advocates, and taken control over civil society. They have targeted journalists, human rights lawyers, ethnic minorities, religious groups, non-governmental organizations, intellectuals, democracy advocates, petitioners and peaceful protesters.
- Without an independent judiciary, citizens across China have little legal recourse, most notably to redress appropriations of their land or homes by local officials for development projects. Even those making modest calls for reform have faced harassment, detention and arrest.
- The government has dramatically stepped up its rhetoric against ‘‘foreign” ideals, values, and influence. Specifically, the Communist Party’s Document No. 30 purges ‘‘Western-inspired liberal ideas” from universities and prohibits teaching and research on a number of topics, including judicial independence, media freedom, human rights and objective analysis of the Communist Party’s history.
- In official pronouncements, the Chinese government says it’s committed to yifa zhiguo (the rule of law). But anyone who thinks that means "rule of law for the people" is bound to be disappointed. What it really means is precisely the opposite. According to the Congressional Commission, Beijing is "further entrenching a system in which they utilize statutes to strengthen and maintain its leading role and power over the country."
|
Explosive Gains! We are on the cusp of the most profitable bull market of our lifetime. Stocks will be driven higher by powerful global undercurrents that Wall Street will either ignore or fail to understand. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. Savvy investors who make the right moves will become very rich! Click here for my free report and to find out how it could make you rich beyond your dreams. — Larry |
| Internal Sponsorship |
This is not based just on theory or analysis. It’s based on fact:
- Community Party documents expressly state their intent to use the law to strengthen their control over legislatures, local governments, and the courts.
- Many of China’s religious and political prisoners are subject to harsh and lengthy prison sentences, often thrown into extralegal ‘‘black jails” and ‘‘education centers.”
- Reports of torture in detention are routine — not to mention other human rights abuses, including denial of medical treatment and the use of forced hospitalization in psychiatric facilities.
- Prominent public interest lawyer Pu Zhiqiang recently faced charges of ‘‘picking quarrels and provoking trouble” and ‘‘inciting ethnic hatred.” His so-called "crime": Social media posts that mocked several government officials and that criticized China’s ethnic policy. Liu Xia, wife of imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, was isolated under extralegal detention at her home in Beijing municipality despite her poor health. All told, the Congressional Commission has information on approximately 1,300 cases of political and religious prisoners detained or imprisoned, though the actual number is certain to be much higher.
- Lawyers who accept politically sensitive cases face disbarment, physical violence, and the closure of their law firms. In July 2015, for example, Chinese authorities took into custody more than 250 individuals in an unprecedented nationwide sweep.
A rash of new, police-state laws. Suddenly and without warning, the Chinese government has issued a series of far-reaching new laws with the cumulative effect of gutting relations with the West. Just in the last 18 months, for example, they’ve issued or drafted …
- The People’s Republic of China National Security Law, which identifies cyberspace, outer space, the oceans, and the Arctic as parts of China’s national security interests. The law stressed the need not only to maintain territorial integrity but also to ‘‘guard against negative cultural influences” and ‘‘dominate the ideological sphere."
- The PRC Overseas NGO Management Law, which impacts more than 7,000 foreign non-governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in China. All will have to find a domestic sponsor (if they can). All will have to register with the police and be subject to random raids or inspections (if they dare).
- The PRC Counterterrorism Law, which grants authorities the legal power to cut Internet access in order to ‘‘safeguard national security and social public order,” while also stipulating that user data from Internet companies must be stored in China.
These and other laws add up to an even broader, more severe crackdown on critics, protesters and ethnic minorities. They are poison for U.S. companies that do business in China. And ultimately, they could sink U.S. trade with China.
The big dilemma, according to the Congressional Commission on China: America’s business and trade interests in China depend on the Chinese government’s willingness to comply with international law, enforce its own laws, allow the free flow of news and information, and fulfill its obligations under the World Trade Organization (WTO). But with these laws and crackdowns, China is moving swiftly in precisely the opposite direction.
And here’s where the Commission fears the ongoing changes in China could impact the United States directly:
Impact #1. It could hurt the safety of our personal information in cyberspace.
Impact #2. It could threaten the safety of our food and drug supplies.
Impact #3. It threatens the protection of our intellectual property.
Impact #4. It will destabilize the entire Pacific region.
Impact #5. It will reduce trade.
Impact #6. It could sabotage U.S. business interests.
Needless to say, all this could dig a hole in the portfolios of mutual funds, hedge funds or any individual investor with a big stake in China.
And all these impacts are based exclusively on currently observed trends — before the vicious cycle of recession and political turmoil begins in earnest, before the volcanic forces in China erupt.
My advice …
First, if you have a lot of money tied up in mainland Chinese companies, greatly reduce your exposure.
Second, beware of U.S.-based multinationals that derive a large portion of their revenues from China.
Third, continue to invest cautiously overall. That means a focus on extreme high quality stocks, an oversized cash position in your portfolio and solid hedges against market declines.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
{ 109 comments }
Thank you for your insight
Martin, you are forgetting how a sudden major conflict with whomever can refocus severe public discontent with the reigning government which will turn it into a nationalist fervor…
against the enemy, more than likely us.
I completely agree with your view. If a government is heavily under pressure by its citizens the risk of starting a war to refocus its people increases considerably. This has happened many times in the past. How to make money with this: Buy shares of companies which produce weapons (if you don’t have an ethical problem with doing that….).
I’d like to see how the US rates in income inequality in comparison. It seems we may be experiencing some of those same problems in the future with overbearing govt regs and complete deterioration of the middle class. I believe completely with the concept of free enterprise but we must remain cognizant of the perils of extreme shifts of wealth and power to a self presumed class of elites.
Excellent point, Stu. This country us not invulnerable to totalitarian practices by a governing elite. We are not exempt from growing power in such an elite. The current Presidential campaign is an example, with the main contenders representing the entrenched gang, versus the rising money competition. Only the outsider, Sanders, represents the general populace. What will the entrenched gang do to maintain their power?
Jerry Springer Sanders does not represent the general populace of US. He simply represents communism and those expecting free stuff. China is what it is. The communist dictators Control then and now, all phases and will continue to aggressively put down any uprising promptly. I believe, Larry Eddelson maintains that China is communist and therefore, in those regards not much will be changing. Frighten funds from most foreign nations are moving in to US as a temporary safe harbor. With US excessive debt in many regards (sovereign, student, pensions, cities, states and US,etc.) the dominoes falling will bring ALL countries down.
Do you really think the general population of this country isn’t enthralled with the prospect of “free” stuff? That is the basic hook for most of the politicians running for office, though they may disguise it as something else.
Bernie Sanders represents the common American instead of the corporations. I’d rather spend money on “Free” college than “Free” aircraft carriers. The dominoes will bring all countries down, but America does better when money goes to the middle class instead of the rich. Trickle up works better.
Aircraft Carriers are within the Constitutional role of Government. Education is not. America does better when the Constitution is honored. Extra-constitutional government is tyranny, and America is the worlds best hope for the opposite: freedom.
In the meantime, the largest Socialist institution in the U.S., the U.S. Military, expects
to have more money to spend with Mr. Trump – who is promising it gobs of money.
Bernie Sanders DOES represent the general populace and is actually the most popular of ALL the candidates. It’s unfortunate that some older people like yourself have no idea of the difference between Chinese communism and democratic socialism. Maybe read a book or google “democratic socialism” so that you can enjoy what the Scandinavian countries enjoy.
Petulance is in fashion. You are with the times, but little else.
@ Chuck Burton.
They’ll manipulate the electronic voting system. Sanders doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance i hell for the simple reason he wants to do what Thomas Jefferson was able to do, and what Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy died trying to do: “Kill the banks.”
You can look at the OECD numbers in the graphs. Income inequality has been rising in the US since about 1970. But China’s rise in income inequality is more sudden and bigger, since the mid-1990s, when China began pursuing mercantilist policies (hoarding foreign currency, running large trade surpluses and massive oversaving) that heavily benefit the coastal regions and deny much of their business revenue to households (hence, they underimport and underconsume, relative to their output). Income inequality is just a symptom of this, not a cause.
All of the “Asian tigers” have been doing this, in one form or another, for decades. Japan is still doing it, and it’s done major harm there. Households just don’t have the income they should have. So they have fewer children, etc. The US got into this trap in the 1930s, but WWII and balance sheet cleansing fixed that.
D
Actually, it began in 1981 with the Republican Revolution… Incidentally GATT, NAFTA Citizens United and the Removal of Glass-Steagall were ALL Republican Initiatives….
The GOP might have written the legislation axing Glass-Steagall but in 1999 Clinton signed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act which killed Glass-Steagall. Don’t blame just the Republicans.
Please remember that President Bill Clinton had to deal with veto proof Congress and Senate, this was a result of the ‘Contract with America which contained 8 or 10 specific points like balanced budgets and term limits. NONE of these points that brought a Republican majority to power were passed, so this was the most telling sign that the whole ‘Contract’ was just a ploy, It worked unions and working people across the country have suffered and paid a high price. The Tax code was shifted to benefit the wealthy and 15 years later the seeds sown are rampant. Sanders may advocate changes that will help the lower end of the economic ladder, but when that group is savaged with the realities that exist, what other options do they have ??
Yes, indeed. You have it right.
Yes, income inequality in the US began rising in the early 70’s…coincident with the rise of the modern left.
No, China’s rise began earlier, with the liberalization of the economy by Deng in the late 70’s. Yes, coastal China is where the economy is thriving, and is also to where massive numbers of Chinese people have migrated. The average Chinese laborer is dramatically better off because of this, even as income inequality has risen. A rising tide DOES llift all boats.
A rising tide is called inflation. Though it does lift all boats, those boats that can’t keep up are left worse off.
My thoughts exactly, Stu. “The Truth Ministers” in the US are painting Russia and China as the enemy, and hope that various tricks will break their respective economic backs. This brings to mind a frequently used term the past 15 years: Blowback. Note what the low oil price was meant to do, and what are the results in the Western hemisphere. Case and point.
I’ve been around a long time and the inequality hi lighted seems to becoming a problem here in America. There is way to much control by the Fed Gov, .as are many State Gov. Taxes aren’t the answer, Spending is the problem. Politicians need to “Just say No”.
It would be helpful to know how many domestic partners would be an extension of the Red Army or Communist Party.
Russia and China seem to be moving in the same direction at the same time populistic politics is growing in the US and Europe.
Although you claimed to be in China for many times but I don’t think you really understand the actual situation from the Chinese point of view. It is a fact that the standard of living of average Chinese citizen has improved to an outstanding level compared with many countries in Asia, Africa and South America. It is also a fact the wages of Chinese workers has increased tremendously to a level that is causing problem in high manufacturing cost for China. Most Chinese are happy with the country development and we cannot fully accept American way of thinking and system!
Don’t think the Party will not use that improved economic condition for it’s own purposes. All politicians, East or West think in much the same way. They are most interested in their own power position, and will use anything available to increase it.
I think that improvement has happened in the coastal regions. But the numbers don’t lie: the countryside has not benefited much.
The US position is tied up with the Chinese one: it’s the mirror image. We undersave, overconsume, and underexport, running chronic trade deficits with the east Asian countries (China just being the biggest). China hoard US dollars and buys our debt that pays for our overconsuming and undersaving. Rinse, repeat. It works until it leads to too many unbalanced symptoms, then it collapses.
Economic development in China before the mid-90s was more balanced. Same here in the US.
Hi Martin
Would you consider the debt bomb of unfunded liabilities often spoken of and without any real resolution, as a major threat and upheaval to our way of life. No candidate or party has an answer to this and yet it is a chasm we are falling into. Real people are dependant on these handouts and no one can solve the mounting debt it is causing. Wall Street waits from one meeting to the next on an interfering fed on projected adjustments in interest rates as market turning points. The market is sitting on a cloud heavily over bought and rather than focusing on capital intensive long term growth projects we are intent on short term fixes. It seems like a recipe for disaster to me. We have a mountain of debt we can’t climb over and a fed in control where we should be motivating the very skills that built this country sitting it out because of Washington’s mishandling of our opportunities. Sorry for the rant.
Howard,
We did not have this HUGE debt problem before the Republican Revolution of 1981.
Nor did we have Wall Street running wild as in the 1920’s
Nor did we have a Islamic Cauldron in the Middle East
Nor did we have a new and growing Military Threat from Russia and China
Nor did we have a “Rust Belt” because of the transfer of manufacturing to China, the Far East and Mexico.
Nor did we a Ecological Disaster because of all that pollution coming from China
Nor had we had a Stock Market Crash and Depression since the last Conservative domination in 1929
Nor did we have the Greatest Income Inequality since the last time the Conservatives were in Domination in the 1920’s
So are you a Donald supporter Eagle?
Not on my worst day…. I’m for Bernie, the ONLY ONE who hasn’t sold out to the big corporations and the 3%…..
Yep, and therefore, unfortunately, he will never be our president… Good Guys never win!!! It’s always a decision between the lessor of two evils…
So let me see, which criminal do I vote for? Which one can this country best endure for the next 4 years and who do we want to pick our Supreme Court Judges in the immediate future whose decisions will impact America long after we are ALL gone and our hard earned wealth and security is either bestowed upon our children or our government’s greed to squander again….
Guns, BIG MILITARY, have kept US so far safe in a violent world and society… Unlike in China and else where our “”2nd Right of the Bill of Rights”” grants US the power and ability to petition those who Would and Will cast US aside when politically convenient, (correct)…
Re: National Debt.
I heard a rather convoluted rant by Donald Trump on CNBC how he would handle debt, suggesting ideas similar to how he has managed debt for some of his businesses, e.g., refinance al lower terms and rates etc. His quote ” I love debt and like to play with it”. How does this work without risking the full faith and credit of the USA by screwing the bond holders as he did with his businesses. And no changes to entitlements! Makes no sense to me!
Bond holders are in for a spanking regardless…Trump will get it over quickly.
In y opinion, Trump is nuts!… :(
And…he promised to ramp up Military spending – the greatest government entitlement of all when Republicans are in power.
I think, when you say screwing other business partners, you are thinking of Steve Jobs, not Trump.
Not a rant Howard..pretty spot on appraisal of the status quo.cheers :)
I agree with you on that to Jay!
Like being drunk on Champagne, one Bubble to the next Bubble… How long before this DUMMHEIT goes totally FLAT? We must be out of our collective minds!!!
Martin, your experience in brazil as a youth and your controlled search for education have brought you to this point of enlightened wisdom. Thank you.
Your article is directly opposite from your biggest contributor Larry Edleson’s positions on China. He lives there now. You say one thing and Larry says another. I don’t understand how you two can be so apart on this. Makes us feel confused and concerned with views and forecasts on this topic. So what gives here? I have a lot riding on solid information here folks!
Rick,
I agree wholeheartedly with your comment. We need single direction advice from Martin’s group.
No, Bob. We need a variety of viewpoints which will cause us to THINK for ourselves. I love that Martin, Mike L., Larry and the others have their own ideas, and express them for our education. We would be fools to blindly follow any advice we haven’t examined and found to make sense. And Rick is wrong in one respect. Larry doesn’t live in China, but in Thailand. Different cultures, like the U.S. and Mexico. He is more influenced by the Chinese economy. Martin is concerned more about its politics.
If you sell prediction and half predict positive and half predict negative, one is sure to be right, so you can continue to sell prediction. Stopped clocks are right twice a day.
Right or wrong, if I bet on all 10 horses in a race, one is sure to win.
Providing different perspectives on world affairs and economics is good so long as there is thematic continuity when it comes to TEAM work. Playing a shell game with subscribers by offering three different perspectives each of which might be partially right means if we invest in all three perspectives then we are also sure to win…partially.
Is this a hedge-game or something more substantial as it pertains to wealth preservation?
Dean only if you don’t use military time, then there right only once a day.
I also agree. It’s time (long past time, actually) for a Martin & Larry China Summit in which their opposing views are aired and discussed in public. Weiss, Inc has repeatedly reminded us over the years that the various editors and contributors have their own points of view, and while that is right and good, the China schism between Martin and Larry seems too glaring to ignore.
That, I agree with, 100% (a public discussion between Martin and Larry). It could be most interesting, though actually, I doubt if they would be as far apart as many think they are. I believe Larry thinks investment in China can be highly profitable, but are dangerous, and require a close watch.
Rick, I agree that they two have apparently totally apposing views and it is confusing, however, Larry only has very small “actual” positions in the RWR, he has a total of 5% of the 20% he allots to his Asia section, or 1% of his total portfolio. Also, his stop loss levels are quite close. Still confusing but Larry apparently isn’t that hot on Asia at this time either.
Economic shocks in China could result in Chinese investors in Australian, Canadian, UK and USA real estate to dispose of these investments in order to free up capital to pay debts.
If these assets are put on the market more or less at the same time they may tend to depress the market. This will be good for first-home buyers presently frozen out of the market by high prices but bad for vendors who may experience losses.
It’s more likely they’ll flee to the countries in which they are invested.
No chance of helping 1st home buyers in Aust…prices too high…correction happening now in the 1.5 – 2.5 million bracket…the 400k houses are not likely to move south as rent seekers still can’t afford them…a 10% correction likely at the 700k to 800k mark…15% to 20% correction in the 1.2k bracket…400k bracket in the burbs is solid…plenty of local buyers + asian..400k just popped to 465k in Syd western suburbs…maybe backtracks 5%..plenty of demand as new laws allow contruction of “granny flats”…as for other countries…I just don’t have the facts.
Thank you very much Mr. Weiss for this excellent presentation on a very complex subject. China is indeed one black swan that gets exponentially worse as time goes by. Makes me wonder what kind of present day orientation Management of American corporations had when shifting production to China.
The full effect of the multiplier has not yet been realised in the USA which is the result of massive quantitive easing. China’s record defence expenditure point towards both an economic and military global supremacy further diminishing USA power and influence. This points towards the even bigger plans already in progress for a new world order.
Of course it is
Just in agreement with your article, Martin.
I was in Australia recently and found out that the top four residential properties in Sydney had been bought by Chinese interests. These are $20 million plus properties. Doesn’t sound like the average Chinese citizen does it. Maybe some of the money finding its way out of China is looking for protection and insurance in a new home. Who knows?
For sure Howard, and not just in Australia.
Howard..I live in the blue mountains 70 k west of syd…my son has several properties in the Penrith area…I can assure you there are plenty of Asian buyers in the lower end also..
Australia does have a very big thing going for it…the tyranny of distance becomes our greatest ally in global unrest….plenty of people want a bolthole in Australia,and why not.
what happened to the china miracle?
I’ve said it before and it bears saying again: Find a copy of the “Bear and the Dragon” by Tom Clancy and notice how long ago it was written…… Clancy has always had access to some of our greatest intelligence organizations and our greatest intelligence thinkers…..
One of the dumbest things to come out of the Conservative rise to power in this country was the move by a group made up of some of the wealthiest Conservatives in this country called the “One World Group” that sought to move our manufacturing to China believing they could make billions while breaking the American Labor Movement and destroying all those Middle Class jobs, despite the fact that all of those products were being consumed in America…. Once those plants in China came up for renegotiation, the Chinese basically said no and took over those plants. Now the Chinese government runs those plants and much of the income from those plants goes into China’s Military, making them a real threat to America……
Personally, I find it amazing that the richest in this country could not see the “Forest for the trees” in wooing China….. Once again, the 3% has brought great danger and economic suffering to America, just as they did in the 1920’s and 1930’s…
As America wakes up and moves, once again, to the left, the possibility of World War lll will loom great as the China threat dissolves while America returns much of our manufacturing to America and the voters swear that they will never again vote to the right, much as our Grandparents did from 1932 forward……
Total BS. Take Apple for example. Steven Jobs and Tim Cook have sent virtually all of their manufacturing to China. And they were/are both Democrats. But why? Is it just for the low wages that these companies move? Well the high cost of unionized labor in the U.S. is one huge piece of the puzzle. But you must also look at the explosion of statutory and legal requirements placed on manufacturing in the USA. And BTW….if Apple isn’t enough for you…..look at GE, led by another Democrat. They have followed the same course….even so far as to sell out many components of their ops to China.
F151,
Did you every work for a living? What I said was that we need to cancel NAFTA and GATT and force American companies to bring their headquarters back to American of be considered “foreign companies”….
Those American companies which moved manufacturing to China, saved a buck here and a buck there, but threw American workers out of their prosperity and into often lower paying jobs. That eventually hurt their markets in this country, as Americans had less to spend on those products, especially when Chinese costs rose, reducing the profit to those companies. Soon those companies are likely to go out of business if they don’t return “making” jobs to this country. A nation which doesn’t “make”, is a third world nation, almost by definition.
The Federal Government is a parasite that is killing its host. The R vrs. D game is pure theater. Jim
Jim,
Did you see the Democrat vs. Republican Administrations return on investments that I posted, from 1929-2012?… Republicans and Democrats are VERY DIFFERENT in terms of Investment return and in many other areas…..
Not necessarily. Service jobs have always been more valuable than mfg jobs. Only having mfg jobs prevents a country from advancing 3rd world to first world. Only service jobs will do that.
The Clintons and Gore sold us out, chicken little495, for campaign contributions- outright bribery and corruption.
More proof that central planning and the government forcing economic prosperity is the mixture for eventual disaster, especially if that government is Communist. Take note America if liberals continue in power.
Aw Tom,
It was the CONSERVATIVES that brought us GATT and NAFTA which put millions of Middle class Americans out of work and turned China into a dangerous military power that will soon threaten the most successful Democracy in the world called America……
Tom
The prosperity we grew up with was a result of liberal the economics incorporated in the 1930s and thereafter. It provided a structured financial environment whereby all could participate fairly. Conservative rollbacks by Reagan and Bush Jr. yielded the savings and loan debacle and the great recession disaster. Regulations are the basis of a sound society it’s why we paint the stripes on the roads!
Most of the devastating economics start with Reagan. Trickle up and unlimited money in politics changed the entire direction of wealth accumulation. The accelerating income inequality and unbridled corporate power over government will feed on itself. Much of the prosperity improvements are related to technology. Capitalism gets all the credit, but when the financial industry is strip mining the rest of the economy things will get worse. Communism doesn’t work. Unregulated capitalism doesn’t either.
Formula:
1- Build a productive business and a large consumer group
2- When it’s big enough, move the production to abusive cheap labor country
3- Bring products back at huge profits (locals lose jobs)
4- Repeat . . . until no more consumers have jobs
5- Use philanthropy for education: disallow concept of production – teach socialism
6- If proletariat awakes, distract, start a war (be sure to profit from war machines)
7- If anything left, go back to 1 . . . .
(Read History of Rhode Island – then visit the once thriving skeletal shells of textile industry)
Or simply stop electing Republicans who are beholden to the 3%, just as our Grandparents. that gave most of as a wonderful life to grow up in…. Until we forgot the lessons of our Grandparents…
Dr Weiss,
Your column is my Monday morning treasure. I have enjoyed all the Weiss Letters ever since I came across them. You and the other writers who publish under your heading seem to have a better grasp on the world than any of the others I follow.
Just for my own clarity, this article is discussing China, not the US?
Thanks, and keep up the good work, Bob
Dr. Weis, Thank you your recent column.
I have been a follower from an early copy of your book “The Ultimate Money Guide”, which I continually reread. As a senior, I don’t have the time horizon to recover from another serious downturn as 2008-09. Thankfully, following your advice, I recovered rather quickly from the 2008 deep recession. I am watching carefully and will heed your advice as we are in unchartered waters considering the current presidential election and also global markets. I would like to see more comments from your team aimed at seniors to navigate through impending market turmoil. Thank you.
That was vary informative, thanks. I would kike to know what putt stocks I can buy in the event that the market drops?
Please and Thanks. P/S If you could advise me in other directions, I would thankful.
Stan
Good Morning, Martin
I think it is bad advise for you to tell people to keep a large cash reserve. Are you forgetting about the Bail-in law? I live 90% on my inheritance and I am loosing many nights sleep over this.
Interesting article. Were you writing about China or the U.S.? Most of what you wrote
could easily compute into our society. Why do you think a majority of Americans are
nominating Trump? Why the disparity in wealth? Why the unfairness toward Black Youths? I can go on and on. So can you, obviously.
art schlosser
art,
Drumpf, will turn out to be one of the biggest losses by a Republican candidate in history… Get a clue, aye?… :(
Ok, I disagree. Who cares if China blows up? It is a radical communist country. Ruled by a wicked military, controlled by the Communist party. They will just kill and imprison millions of people and the country will after the slaughter continue to exist as a totalitarian entity. Even if the whole region blew up…..SO WHAT? Are we going to become involve in a ground war in China to save that government? America can and will do just fine if China fell back to the stone age. We have oil, coal, minerals and an educated population. Only businesses like Wal-Mart might feel the pain when they are unable to import cheap merchandise from China. OK… he speaks Manderin. BIG DEAL.. Nuts to Red, very Red China. Permit me to explain the “shock wave”. Manufacturing will return to America. Now is that a crisis? It is if your are Wal-Mart. The sooneer China implodes the better. OK, those of you who have made billions investing in Chinese securities…might just might lose a little paper wealth. However, even if there were massive riots the Red Chinese military will just kill as many millions as necessary to keep order. Life is cheap in China.
The USA is also very much responsible for China’s uneven rise. The wrong policies of two past Presidents of the USA has created the demon that is China. First, it was President Richard Nixon, who unduly favoured China knowing fully well that it is a repressive Communist regime, probably to counter the progress of the USSR. Next, it was Bill Clinton who accorded Most Favoured Nation status to China, even after the bloody crackdown at Tiananmen Square. These two US Presidents’ extreme cosying up to China is now on the way to create a global economic calamity.
Not that Nixon and Clinton were of ostensibly opposing parties, yet worked in conjunction. Politicians are politicians. They all do what is required to gain power and wealth. That is their main goal, and devil take the hindmost.
MAP,
Yes great comments…. China should have remained isolated. There seems to be really only one party. Both are extremely arrogant and self serving. Of course poor Mr. Eagle495 keeps fooling himself by believing that it was only the republicans who are destroying America.
This article could just as easily have been written about the US. The symptoms may appear a little different but the results will be the same. How else can you explain the Trump phenomenon?
Meanwhile, Japan seeks shelter under Christian Russia’s nuclear umbrella. Russia lobbied against a US war with Iran, pushing the US instead to deploy the B2 bomber and a new bunker-buster bomb that could be used to close Iran’s uranium refinery by force. Presently a Russian-brokered agreement, that Tehran won’t build an atom bomb, has been crammed down the throats of Israeli leaders, who are uneasy about living adjacent to Islamists with nuclear weapons capability.
Japan’s response has been to break ranks with the US-brokered isolation of Russia over the Ukraine civil war. Japan needs enriched uranium for energy to drive it’s manufacturing base. Why buy it from a factory in Ohio and pay top dollar, when Iran has it for sale, in larger volume and at lower cost?
Americans’ obsessive focus on off-grid solar and wind systems, that enable wealthy people to keep their electronic toys working during times of crisis, has obscured the central role of energy in advanced economies: we need energy to refine metal, make plastic, cut lumber, manufacture finished goods. China is deploying nuclear energy for this purpose. Japan already has it. The US is exporting Mideast war and acquiring control of Mideast oil fields, which may continue to provide negotiating leverage with Japan and China, as long as they buy some oil, but is not limitless.
At some point, it will become necessary for the US to admit that we’e borrowed and spent more money than the world has ever seen. Astronomical sums of debt, that no one can repay, must be forgiven.
The weaker our manufacturing economy, the fewer choices we have, in negotiating terms for that debt.
Martin, this is an excellent article that ties together many strands in one place.
The only thing you didn’t mentioned is the impending decline in Chinese growth from the one-child policy. China’s workforce is now shrinking, and much of its urban workforce is beginning to return to the countryside.
The one-child policy will accomplish in a few years what took Japan decades to accomplish. Unless there’s a turnaround in demographic trends, and there’s no sign of it, China’s population and workforce will continue to shrink for the rest of this century.
Thank you Dr. Weiss for your analysis of China.
I suspect that one empire begets the rise of another.
From ancient Nimrod to the current western empire, with its enforcement of “international norms” and destruction of nationalism via immigration, their utopian schemes promote a fools paradise.
The US cannot have prosperity, again, as long as it elects presidents that subordinate the nation to the one world order.
Lots of interesting reading both in the main article and comments. But the argument about the US main conservative and liberal parties is a lot of hot air. I expect we should see them join ranks soon as the United USA party once the smoke screen of them pretending to be SO DIFFERENT fades. They both seem to be looking for power and wealth. As for China – once the ‘get rich party’ fades there then the Government is likely to blame the US and start a war to distract its population.
Article says too much sky-is-falling. China will do okay, just not as good.
Coffin Dodger…
Micheal your comment is simply stated but true, however longer term and in a very broad brush sense, the vendors are usually proportionately a larger part of the job providers so that as any major sector bubble bursts it eventually negatively effects the prospects of the first time buyers…
The first moment of truth came early in 2007, as the trouble with subprime loans first became apparent. Recall that collateralised debt obligations established a seniority ranking for shares, owners of the more senior shares the ones rating agencies declared to be AAA, had first dibs on payments, with those holding the less senior shares, which were given lower ratings, being paid only after the senior shareholders had received their due. This has removed an important source of housing demand thus worsening the global slump.
what I continue to read is “have a an oversized cash position” where is the BEST and SAFEST place to have this oversized position?
Thanks for this huge update and the warnings.
My question is how does this jive with all of Larry’s advise on believing Asia including China are super safe and the best investment we can have over the next few years?
I’m constantly having trouble reconciling all the sometimes seemingly opposite advise? Is it just me or could it be Weiss is covering every direction as the worldwide marketplace is totally un callable at present……….for a year or more……..many were surprised at one point or the other with oil prices crashing.
Thank you – would LOVE and answer to this
If one substitutes the Democrat party for Communist party and Washington insiders for
Chinese government the 5 declarations of Congress on China would almost perfectly fit the USA and its PC control of us, Obama’s DOJ silencing of religious freedom, the IRS and other agencies controlling our population. The Democrat party is headed toward control of our freedoms and elimination of our Constitutional guarantees as well as our country identity.
guiseppe
And don’t forget your local fire department is an example of creeping socialism.
Martin,
Since you did not mention too much about the labor situation may I ask why. ? It was not too many months ago that the Big Red Dragon’ central planners had underestimated the time it would take for the country to convert from an export oriented market economy to a consumer economy and as such had millions of people thrown into a lurch, stuck in a limbo between having just sold all their farms to finance their moves to the job ready big cities, you remember those huge gleaming ghost cities built to accommodate the influx of rural workers.
Well, the slow down of the past year or so has put all these souls that have left all for the new dream , in a purgatory, limbo, tossed like yoyo’ back to the land and birth homes they have just sold to local authorities at a discount told go back until things pick up again. to rental living and or subsidized housing (That is why the massive government hand outs were required )When that looks very far away and how that despair will try the patience of any man trying to feed and clothe and educate his family.
The slow down is on a scale we here in America can’t conceive and it is not being mentioned any where with a similitude of truth speak , so what can one do but surmise the strain that is building ! Worker discontent and how a strong hand MUST be working to contain the simmering if not already boiling cauldron of wonton disregard of people suffering from the mistakes of a central command and control system!
The whole world is grasping for a more familiar rational, a traditional economy of fair weights and balances. .., the market is always right and if the people do not have confidence they will stop being the market sooner or later and then what holds up the sky?
The international trade agreements will be tossed as we enter into trade wars and as you often said trade wars often lead to fighting wars!
Martin-
Fantastic article. This has been and should be at the forefront of many national security issues especially involving Rare Earth Elements REE’s are essential to many of our most needed systems for military and our daily lives. China essentially owns and produces almost
all REEs on the planet. This is a very dangerous situation if this implosion is in the near future. We need a national investment in this sorely needed area.
CTyner
thanks for this info!!!!
Great analysis Martin, but the one conclusion you did not address was the action the totalitarian governments will implement when faced with overwhelming discontent by their populace. While the wealthy will flee to their ‘insurance’ homes in Malibu, the government elites will need to find a scapegoat and will need protection from the military. While such a scapegoat could be internal or external, if the military becomes the key to stability and retaining establishment leaders, it seems the likely the target would be the US. It is the United States standing in the way of Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and, at least should Mr. Trump prevail in November, there is likely to be great pressure to limit the trade
imbalance. This makes military “incidents” between China and the US an increasing reality.
These can escalate and, unlike America’s predominance in manufacturing in WWII, many of the factories and other production facilities are located in China, casting doubt on a successful outcome for us.
It’s not about republicans or democrats….majority are self serving crooks feeding their egos.
And it’s about a political system that allows Big Business/Big Money to buy the crooks that are supposed to represent the interests of the people. And it’s the media propaganda machine that spins the information to the sheep. As an example, everyone in the country felt the benefits of organized labor…even those that bitched about ” 3 union workers to change a light bulb”. The unions kept management in check and prevented the conditions that exist today in almost every workplace today….remember when we had retirement plans , health insurance , decent vacation time, sick time ….along with decent money. Reagan broke the air traffic controllers union in 1981 and that was the start of the end of organized labor. The internet in 1991 enabled the beginning of the “worldwide economy” the outsourcing , offshoring and simply removing the jobs overseas while the sheep masses were fed the propaganda by the media , that americans didn’t want these jobs…or these jobs will be replaced by better higher paying jobs……as long as the textile workers, or tool and die makers , steel workers, can figure out how to become software engineers.And then…the american workers are underqualified so we’ll just give them food stamps and crap jobs to keep them quiet and working their lives away ….and we’ll bring in some cheap software engineers from TIMBUKTU. So , the problem is much bigger than the President.
We should spend our tax money in the United States and stop pissing off a good portion of the rest the world by presuming our way is the best for everyone. And stop worrying about which gender uses which bathroom .
“Everywhere, the most-widely revered gods in urban China today are the god of wealth and the god of power.
In the long march toward conspicuous consumption … — respect for elders, parents and those of lower social status — have largely fallen by the wayside”.
Hmmm – this sounds very familiar – now where esle could this be happening?
This sounds like a large “cluster” of millennials who are drunk on Socialist Kool-Ade. God help us all.
How can we compete with a labor force like China?? We can’t, and should not depend on all the junk they send over here. That’s why gold keeps going UP.
Let’s not forget all of those impressive growth numbers from the past may have been grossly exaggerated and possibly continue to do so. China is not a country that tries to publish growth numbers in the most accurate way, rather China is a dictatorship that can publish what they want us to believe.
This article adds some very worrying facts, both about the social climate and the economic situation. The latter was not a big surpise for me, the first I suspected but that is so bad…
You mentioned to protect your self to have a good part of portfolio in cash. How much are you suggesting in dollars?
For many many years now I have seen major developed countries like the USA, Australia, Britain etc lose control of their economies, population workforce, manufacturing and farming. All because some greedy people decided they could get rich(er) by importing cheap goods. Until these times all these countries in the 1930-1950’s were pretty self sufficient.
I would like to see a return to strict import or export quotas .
The country would then resume manufacturing and farming with its workforce.
All of a sudden, people will be employed again. Prices would stabilize as no more currency shifting,
The rich families will still control the big end of town, just less wealth.
The problem is, by getting other countries to manufacture your goods, you put your own workforce out of work, who can now not afford to buy these imported goods, and worse, they become a burden on the people who do work.
Governments should stop people killing each other, have a set of laws and a ‘good’ taxation and defence system. If companies decide to move off shore, then let them, but their company is no longer part of the US etc, but part of that country, and their goods will be subject to import rules etc…umm, that’s right…restricted imports. No more tax dodging. You manufacture and sell in a country, you pay the taxes in that country on the sales..no more numerous shelf companies through out the world to distribute though low tax havens.
The Governments should stop spending what they do not have…Sorry folks, we can’t afford this, we do not take sufficient taxes.
There will always be poor, middle class and wealthy people, as well as the very very rich, just how life happens as some people take more risks, have better education.
This, “we all live in a world market” is rubbish while ever the wage and conditions of employment are so very unequal, one country can easily poach on another, and of course, the usual rich families get richer again, and the worker gets poorer, or worse, destitute.
Be interesting to see where all the world debt resides. Every one seems to owe zillions to others, with little or no chance to ever pay it back. Trouble is, the interest is getting to big, the countries can’t afford to pay it back. One day, some one will ask for their loan back because they in turn have been asked to pay their loan back etc….
The problems that exist today are actually the burden of elitism. Banks to big to fail, economic blunders, and an absolutely malfunctioning Congress. The failures of real leaders to grip the context of human history. If. I buy an investment, home, car, I must suffer the consequence or joy of the purchase – such is not the case for all. It has become apparent that some do not. Especially the wealthy and politically connected. This is not just an American problem – it is a world problem (China, Russia, Europe, South America and North America and places in between). Here in lies the real cause of economic malaise: In order to sustain growth you must have an increasing population, but an increasing population begins to strain the use of natural resources. This is all resources to include quality of water, air and earth. China is probably the best Canary in a coal mine truth to this. China has turned into a economic juggernaut in such a short period of time, that it actually gives a glimpse of what has actually taken the Western economies a longer time frame (100 years+). Thus unless someone of the ability to have lived a couple hundred years and a good presence of mind to comprehend. This is not to fault China, but clearly to use it as an example that can easily be studied as what occurred in Western economies. We make investments based on present values to be presented in the future to be of equal value or greater to cover our old age. This assumes the fact that the future generation is willing and able to purchase these assets. The future however is bleak. The bleakness comes from the human ignorance of asset allocation, population control, and environment protection. China wanted prosperity as do all human beings, but at what cost? None of us truly ask at what cost? Nor do we as humans, take full responsibility for our actions or lack thereof. Many times I have had people tell me that they deserve something as they screw one another to get it – that is a perverse and sick adaptation of Mr. Scrooge. Businesses from Europe and America located manufacturing in China and other undeveloped countries and their excuse was labor cost -bulls__t – they did it to avoid regulations on clean water, clean air and earth. The 100+year idiom it took western civilization to accomplish was wiped away in greed. Just look at China today the classic example of unchecked environmental controls. Western governments chose to do the wink, wink process as corporate greed proceeded to destroy what 100+ learning experience had taught us clean air, clean water, clean land. I am elderly now and I have learned well from the human experience and this is not a prophesy but a truth: Unless things change and change wisely the best blessing for the human race is a meteor will strike and we will go the way of the dinosaurs – in a blink of an eye. Think of Hiroshima, those who died instantly and those who lingered and suffered horrifically. The earth has a set dimension, a set amount of natural resources, and a set amount of life forms all of it was designed to teach us of how the whole Universe operates. If humans cannot value each other equally, then why should any more intelligent life form value us? This planet is a baby, a spoiled infant still ranting and raving – careful, for what you do not value another make take by force. It takes very little effort to enter into this solar system and bump the right size meteor into a collision course with this planet. Your shoot ’em up games is a waste of resource allocation, when an existent projectile is readily available and gravity and energy source to deliver it. Have a good day.
Things aren’t that hot in terms of business outlook for our facility here in America yet we have a large subsidiary in China.
Should we bring the work back here and when?