After getting pummeled for weeks, central bankers and crude producers went on the offense in the past 96 hours.
Market Roundup
First, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi went before the European Parliament yesterday to proclaim the banking system sound and resilient. He said higher capital buffers and other things made the situation “very different from what it was in 2012” during the eurozone debt crisis. He also said the ECB “will not hesitate to act” further to combat economic weakness when it next meets on March 10.
Second, officials from Saudi Arabia and Russia met in Doha, Qatar, and said they would “freeze” oil production. Qatar and Venezuela said they will also join in the new output plan. The Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi claimed the move would help limit “significant gyrations in prices” and lead to a “stable oil price.”
Rumors of policy action and short covering ahead of the three-day weekend for U.S. markets helped send the Dow Industrials up by more than 300 points Friday. Then they rose another 220 points or so today. But crude oil gave up all of its gains, suggesting the advance may have trouble sticking. Why?
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| Will oil producers be able to stem the drop in oil prices? |
Well, let’s start with Draghi. What do you really expect the man to say? Like every central banker, treasury secretary, or finance minister facing a banking crisis in history, he’ll never admit if the system is rotting from beneath. That would only intensify the sell-offs in bank stocks, and even lead to depositor “runs on the bank.”
Just remember how former-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson kept saying the housing and mortgage crises were “well-contained” back in the mid-2000s — even as they were starting to collapse behind the scenes. They couldn’t admit how bad things were because of the dire consequences of doing so.
As for the oil deal, there’s a lot less to it than meets the eye. For starters, both the Saudis and the Russians refused to cut production. They’re only halting further increases … not much of a pledge when you consider both countries are producing at record-high levels.
The deal is also conditional on other OPEC and non-OPEC nations joining in. But U.S. share producers aren’t bound by national or government policy. They’ll take advantage of any increase in prices to pump more to keep desperately needed cash coming in the door.
Not only that, but Iraq and Iran also aren’t party to the deal. That’s significant because Iraqi production just hit a record 4.35 million barrels per day last month, while Iran is planning to boost production and exports back to pre-sanction levels regardless of what the Saudis or Russians say.
| “Iraq and Iran also aren’t party to the deal.” |
Me? I’ll go back to what I’ve been saying for several months. Sharp, short-term rallies are even more common in bear markets than in bull ones. They tend to come after waterfall declines, start because of some policymaker response, and look very enticing on the surface.
But unless the underlying fundamentals change significantly for the better, you shouldn’t alter your investing strategy because of them. The better approach is to use them to unload long exposure you’ve been lugging around … or to re-load inverse ETF/put option positions … at better prices.
So what do you think? Is Draghi right, and the European banking system in decent shape? Or is he just saying whatever he has to in order to keep investors from panicking further? How about the oil deal? Is this a significant change, or just a bunch of sound and fury signifying nothing? Hit up the comment section and weigh in when you get a minute.
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After several painful sessions for risk assets, we saw a late-day rally on Thursday. That carried through on Friday and in international markets on Monday when we were closed. So what do you see happening from here?
Reader Chuck B. said: “Major stock market bulls and bears happen on a fairly regular pattern — not exactly, but alternating to some degree. We should be due for a bear market after six years of the bull being in control. Play it roughly the reverse of how you played the bull, and you should come out fairly well.”
Reader Gordon said: “We keep looking in the rear-view mirror and think in cycles, charts, patterns and investing history. But the debt world has advanced greatly and as stated, the bull market has raged for some six years now. Maybe one should consider that, with all the debt and bad bank and government decisions, we could be looking at a prolonged nuclear bear market.”
Reader Michael said there are other factors to consider: “It seems there should be more analysis of demographics, sovereign debt, private and personal debt, and unfunded liabilities of city, county, state, and federal governments. The impacts indicate the need for de-leveraging no matter how much central bankers/governments attempt to avoid it.
“At the core is the demographics of now. Population growth begets growth and the reverse is also true — i.e., Japan.”
Finally, Reader F151 said: “The day of reckoning for the central bankers has finally arrived. Janet Yellen was totally befuddled last week before Congress. Her message was nonsensical. I almost feel sorry for her as she will be pilloried long before this is over.
“She is in way over her head, but I do not think Greenspan or Bernanke would do any better. She should resign and get out while she still has a shred of sanity. Obama has doubled our national debt to almost $20 trillion and as a result, there will be few options and things will be bad … very bad.”
I appreciate the comments. I tend to agree that the overhangs of government and private debt are major challenges here. Corporations have also been borrowing like mad to buy back stock and buy competitors. Plus, we’ve seen huge buildups in subprime auto lending, commercial real estate lending, and other risky subsectors of the finance industry.
We’ll see if stocks can overcome all of those obstacles for more than a few days. Personally, I remain skeptical. Whether you agree or disagree, I’d love to hear about it in the discussion section.
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The home security firm ADT Corp. (ADT) is selling out — to Apollo Global Management (APO) for $6.9 billion. The private-equity firm is paying a 56% premium to where ADT was trading before news of the deal broke. Apollo already owns the Protection 1 security firm, and will fold ADT’s operations into that business.
China joined the chorus of countries claiming there’s much more they can do to stave off economic weakness. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan spoke out to defend the yuan currency, while the country’s premier, Li Keqiang, pointed to “a lot of tools in the box” that could be used to boost growth. I feel like I’ve seen this movie before, but I’m curious if you think they’re right — or if China’s economy is destined for weakness no matter what.
Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died of natural causes over the weekend, and now the race is on to replace him. President Obama could choose to nominate a more liberal judge, but Republicans in Congress are vowing to fight any such nomination. Will Obama name a replacement anyway, and dare Congress to stand in the way? Or will a vacancy remain until the next president takes office? We shall see.
Uh oh. This Bloomberg opinion piece from Mohamed El-Erian used the “c” word to describe the banking sector chaos – “contained” in the headline and “containable” in the copy. El-Erian is a former Pimco bigwig, frequent CNBC guest, and the current chief economic adviser at insurance giant Allianz. I haven’t seen our current Federal Reserve chairman or Treasury secretary use that infamous term from the housing/mortgage crisis yet … but I’ll be watching!
So what do you think: Is the banking turmoil going to be “contained,” or are policymakers and analysts whistling past the graveyard (again)? Is China going to be able to jump-start growth effectively here? Will we see more private-equity takeovers like the ADT deal going forward? Or are tightening credit conditions going to put the kibosh on that business? Again, the comments section is a great outlet for your thoughts.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Asia is collapsing. Europe is falling apart. U.S. stocks look like they could crash and burn at any moment, without notice.
… So what’s YOUR “Plan B”?
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Even in the worst circumstances, there is always a way for you to make money with currencies. And you can invest with ETFs, options or in the spot Forex market.
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Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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The banking turmoil is NOT contained for the simple reason that the underlying problems are still there. Until the conditions of debt servicing exceeding productivity, overspending by governments and shrinking real income by consumers is addressed, the slide will continue. Simply a matter of monetary and fiscal physics.
A boiling pot is always contained – until you add a bit too much heat and it boils over and puts out the fire.. Or reduce the heat too much and all the activity dies. Economies follow a similar pattern. It is hard to keep the heat just right.
there’s only one thing going on that’s ruling the market – oil storage tanks are still filling. once the drawdown begins, we’ll see things go the other way.
nothing has changed with gold. stocks go up, gold goes down – stocks go down, gold goes up.
Anybody that would put any faith in a deal between Russia and the Saudi’s is dreaming. This is only round 1 and they are making a pitiful gesture to see if the market goes for it but sadly smoke and mirrors is no good. There is just to much physical oil out there and that has to go used up first and this deal will do nothing to address this issue. American frackers are just sitting back waiting to for someone else to do heavy lifting for them. For them sadly America may be the land of the free but for the frackers well bankruptcy looms ahead regardless its to late in the cycle. The frackers do not realize that the US government used them as a pawn like they use everybody. All this fracking baloney was done to make it look like America will once and for all be energy independent. For the politicians it was something to hang their hat on for the frackers loading up on debt to achieve the American dream and now bankrupcty not only hurting themselves but their bond holders as well. Fracking was never a long term solution as the wells go dry in a year or two. As it is the US is starting to look like a pin cushion and people are suffering earthquakes and bad water and a multitude of problems associated with franking but the politicians could not care a rats Ahole. Power and greed is all that matters.
Mohamed El-Erian is an exceptionally astute and experienced resource who knows about proportion and confidence going forward. I’ll go with him 95% of the time and be well off. He has done well, he will do well.
Finally, an official steps up and tells the truth! I’ve been saying this now for years!! And you don’t have to go any further then my history here to find the proof of that fact. However, the Fed didn’t act alone.. they were partners in crime with (all) the criminals on Wall Street. I think this needs to be thoroughly investigated (a real investigation.. not a joke designed to help with a coverup) and people need to go to prison. Since the crisis began, this government hasn’t been telling the truth or holding anyone accountable.. because our leaders have been guilty right along with them. There’s only one thing that matters on wall street, you can never be too rich! It does’t matter how you came about your wealth, either. The Feds policy’s and our hard earned free money they’ve been giving the rich has created the market equivalent of spoiled irrational crack babies. It’s a house of cards and we haven’t seen the beginning of the correction that will follow as a result. A giant bubble built on a foundation of lies
Mohamed El-Erian wen on to say “But should it evolve into a much sharper downturn, there could be serious consequences for a slowing global economy and for financial markets that have generally had a lousy start to the year. Those are risks that the global economy and markets can ill afford at the moment.” really!
Gee Mr. Mohamed I only have a grade 10 education and I could have come up with the same answer. This guy really knows how to cover all the bases.
Jawboning will only serve to “contain” the crisis in the short to medium term however this only extinguishes prevailing fires and fails to remove the box of matches causing the fires. As time progresses more and more fires will appear until all is burned down leaving only an empty matchbox behind!
Your correct we are in the Jackass Jawboning stage. They are braying in the wind. Yes Draghi can come out with his moment of madness comment but we all have seen him for what he is an “emperor with no clothes” China now is using western euphemisms “We have more tools left in our tool box” Another bad side effect of zero and sub zero interest rates is that Central banks are now pushing the worlds biggest pension funds out of the bond market and into the stock market to roll the dice for their present and future retirees that entrusted them with their life savings to live the ‘Golden Dream” sadly when they are arrive there the dream might be only gold plated.
With all due respect, we, the economic system, as we know it is sliding into debt induced oblivion!! Are we so indoctrinated into the discredited liberal BS that we cannot think of reality?
Russ yes we are sliding into debt induced oblivion. It was not entirely fueled by Liberal BS the Republicans had more than their fair share of responsibility for the mess we are now in. A failed war or two high unemployment and a few other smelly things left behind by that little man called George Bush. I see that “Just call me Jeb” has unleashed him in South Carolina. What a great way to drive a stake through any slim election hopes he had left. I am afraid that all of Jebs family and all of Jebs money men can never put Jeb back on the winning trail again. Here is your joke of the day. Jeb states “Trump Fears Me”
hmmm not a word about barack Obama who has literally doubled the national debt in 7 yrs
In 1921-22 we had a great depression.You won’t find this in too many history books because it didn’t last every long. When asked what to do the President said do nothing the market will correct themselves! Thats why it didn’t last and thats why this one is lasting. Leave the markets alone period.
John
Exactly Correct!!
Part of the cause was the Federal Government canceling all military orders effective Nov 11th, and refusing to accept products all ready to ship, some shipments were even turned around and returned to the shipper. American farmers expected to feed Europe for several years after the war ended but Europe had bumper crops the year after the end of the war. It took the company a couple of years to adjust. The big news that is often overlooked was the ‘Prosperity Special’ that was twenty new Southern Pacific Company 2-10-2 heavy freight locomotives that were built by Baldwin Locomotive works in Eddystone Pa and sent to EsPee’s General Shops in Los Angeles Ca. It received press coverage everyday it moved, made movie house newsreels and schools were let out to see it pass through school bands and hoards of citizens turned out to see it. Several members of Congress sent messages along with the train. President Harding even sent a telegram with best wishes. The only train that has even come close was when Union Pacific moved Big Boy 4014 (4-8-8-4) to return it to Cheyenne to return it to steam last year. UP used diesels 4014 and 4884 for parts of the trip
couldn’t agree with you more john
I THINK WE WILL SEE A CURRANCY CRASH BEFORE THE END OF SPRING. THE ECONOMY WILL TANK AND YOU BETTER GET YOUR CASH OUT OF THE FDIC BANKS AND PUT IT UNDER YOUR MATTRESS. CREDIT WILL BE THE FIRST TO GO AND NO ONE WILL TAKE IT. YOU WILL SEE SIGNS,CASH ONLY. THE FEDS WILL NOT RAISE INTEREST RATES UNTIL SUMMER AND THATS WHEN THE WHOLE BUBBLE WILL POP. STORE CASH AND FOOD.
what if the house burns down? won’t my paper money burn up too? and what if somebody breaks in the house? won’t they get all my money?
doesn’t a currency crash mean cash will be a worthless piece of paper with green ink on it? what good would it do me stuffed in the mattress?
maybe i should buy soda pop? then when the bubble pops i’ll be the only one with pop. i could barter with colored sugar water, eh?
good plan. food & cash, right? i’ll think about it. but not for too long.
At least they will not hold you for ransom
What makes you think anyone will want your paper money when this happens. you might have better luck with Cambell soup stashed.
When the chaos comes, the new currency will be……….ammunition……..
…aaaannnnd booze…plenty of booze !
lead could become more valuable than gold.
your right along with booze
Why should the government be worried of debts, all they need is print more money. Where is the control??? Money is no longer back by precious metals!
Even though I am certain that the wrong medicine has been prescribed for the economy by the central bankers. I believe that oil prices have bottomed. The central bankers will buy the cheap oil to help bail out the banks again.
Not sure the bottom has arrived in oil..all those unemployed people around the globe are not driving their cars to jobs…ships are carrying less cargo and resources…soon they’ll be carrying less oil.
The significant news on the Iran front, is that Saudi and Russia are both freezing crude output at current levels. For the past two quarters, Saudi has been dumping oil on the market, trying to utilize every available tanker hull, thereby excluding Iran from getting favorable freight rates on crude exports, and messing with Russia in the process. Now that they’ve both quit escalating, Iran has to under-bid them to get product to market.
This is a bit of Texas history repeating itself as tragedy, after playing out in Austin as farce. Back in the ’30’s, railroad tank cars for moving oil, got scarce, and the Texas Legislature created a state Railroad Commission, which had the authority to limit how many days a month, the wells could pump. Major refining and marketing companies, recognizing that the rivers were, under state law, thoroughfares, started building shallow-water tugs and barges, to float oil out to the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, inland fields that were high and dry, had to rely on rail. Curiously, the Railroad Commission continued to limit crude production into the 1960’s and ’70’s, even though pipelines had replaced rail for moving crude to market. The primary purpose of the Railroad Commission was to keep crude prices high.
The end result: Nixon imposed wage and price controls. Then OPEC imposed price increases. Price-controlled domestic crude was cheap…if you could get it. Consumers got walloped at the pump, because it was cheaper to refine OPEC oil and pass the costs through, than to refine domestic oil and try not to break the Nixon laws. (Although lawbreaking didn’t seem to bother Nixon much, when he was doing it.)
Sure they have…
I notice that gold, after overshooting the top of the 2 1/2 year channel last week, has retreated around 1/5 of the distance to the bottom of the channel. Does that mean it is going to fall below $1000? Not necessarily, but possible. The bulls shot their wad for the time being, but could recover and try again.
This could be a setup for the shorts to step back in like they have so many times in the last couple of years as gold moved in a $100 range. The bulls have to convince the shorts that this is the real deal. In the end I think both sides work hand in hand to crucify the little guy. There is just to much hanky panky in the precious metals market from paper gold to the daily settings in London. Like last August don’t be surprised if someone comes in and dumps a pile of paper gold on the market and drives it down a $100. When you deviate from the physical aspect of gold you distort the market.
My call is gold must break 1,000 before the bull run continues..my figures point to gold at $745 – $ 755 as a bottom…may not happen..but gold need to fill the gaps 500 and 1,0000… if it breaks 1,000 it is possibly a false break and bounces back….or a drop to 750 ….. not saying it is a given… but I am saying their is a bleak floor under gold at the moment.
It’s amazingremain, people never learn, you can’t make something out of nothing, dumb sheep think it is something.
It has taken the federal reserve a little over 100 years to destroy our currency and economy, but destroy it they have, they started easing their FED notes side by side with the silver and gold backed notes, untill they had completely replaced them.
Britain’s pound remained stable for about 400 years because it was backed by copper, silver and gold, but then in about early 1900s they started debasing it, now it is just fiat currency like the rest of it.
Uh, stocks are fiat, too.
Not quite, Frank. Stocks say you own a share of the company. If the company makes money, and chooses to share it with you, you get a dividend, or maybe the fiat value of the stock rises if you sell the stock, etc.
A physical stock certificate may serve you well. Jim
Yes Chuck they increase the value of your stock by going out and borrowing money at low rates to buy back their stocks at high rates thus making your stock more valuable. When interest rates rise and the market tanks well thats another story.
Thanks, but what good is an asset that promises a 5% dividend when its market value can get hacked 20% in an hour, day, week, month, or year? More risk than reward. One share of Google is a piece of paper and promises that is not even worth the liquidation value of an office chair (share of the company). The “value” is ALL perception and fiat in the market, not just partly.
the only problem with stocks most have a average P/E ratio of 20 and that’s based on forward earnings
Total collusion globally…mid 60’s most countries still using silver in coins in some form…40%…46%…50% some at 80%..then KABLOOEY…all silver removed from coins globally in the mid 60’s…total conspiracy…Rothchildian reptiles coerced govs globally..and ho govs lapped it up for the easy money…that needs to be addressed in the coming meltmoment…
It’s amazing, people never learn, you can’t make something out of nothing, dumb sheep think it is something.
It has taken the federal reserve a little over 100 years to destroy our currency and economy, but destroy it they have, they started easing their FED notes side by side with the silver and gold backed notes, untill they had completely replaced them.
Britain’s pound remained stable for about 400 years because it was backed by copper, silver and gold, but then in about early 1900s they started debasing it, now it is just fiat currency like the rest of it.
I don’t think oil has bottomed. The world is flush with oil and most the trucking industry in the U.S has switched to natural gas and all the new cars have much better fuel economy. But long term the future is electrical cars for many reasons and because of this you will see the middle east, Russia ect. pump out as much oil as they can for as long as they to maximize their resource. I think what is going to cause the next credit crisis in U.S will the default of the hundreds of billions of dollars they lent to oil companies for shale oil product when oil was above 100. There is no way these companies can even pay back the interest never mind the principle at $30.00 or below when break even is about 60.
the Canadian oil sands are now losing 2 dollars per barrel at these prices
Yep Mark
And the Gov. can just add this debt to the rest of their (Our) nat. debt of 20 trill, and unfunded entitlements of 200 trill., Never, never land is about to become right here and now land as brokeland descends on us
hey didn’t Michael Jackson live in never never land too look what happened to him his nose fell off and never never land withered and died
Oil companies and banksters. No, it won’t work, just like it didn’t work the last time.
Check out Rachel Madow’s (MSNBC) documentary “Why We Did It”. How soon we forget the Bush-Cheny fear-mongering debacle that got us into this mess well before 2008 for the sake of “National security”. History repeats for those who remain ignorant, oblivious, apathetic, and greedy. And those guys should be doing time, just like Bernie Madoff.
I would not trust anything from Rachel Madcow. She is a far, far left loon.
Too bad. Go ahead and live the lies you choose.
Be that as it may, Rachel Madow is head and shoulders above the competition when it comes to trustworthy news and commentary.
Making such political mentions on a site like this shows to me that the DNC must really be getting desperate that their house of cards is falling on their watch instead of after the election this time. Just another sign to be bearish in 2016.
I think the recession has already started its just not showing up on paper yet usually they start 18 months on average before they are verified with 2 quarters of – growth
Are we are getting far too focused on history? I thought we were here to trade ideas and help each other make money?
Mike
You are right, Draghi is a front man pretending the walls won’t come down, while holding back the dykes from collapsing. Regardless of what he says about bank strength since last time, their combined debt load has increased. If everything was great then why aren’t interest rates 4 or 5 percent? Today I had to be careful with large fund trading volumes as I unloaded profitable stock positions to increase cash levels for next time.
Any oil man would rather sell one barrel for $50 than two barrels for $25 each. Let’s see if insanity prevails.
I’m not saying it’s likely to happen, but how can you bet on oil going down when a five per cent production cut would change everything. Too risky! Jim
no one can cut. it will never happen.
I obviously disagree. The fact these four producers have opened a dialogue is significant. This process is usually done incrementally. Further agreements could be made in coming months. I agree, It won’t effect current prices. They have said they want to stabilize prices. Bumping along the bottom at around $30 a barrel will do the real damage to weak producers, and soon suppliers and services as well. Caution is warranted. Jim
it won’t do any good for the saudis to cut oil production. they know that.
there’s only one solution to the oil glut. increased demand. –yore
Hi Jim
What do you believe will happen if oil supply lines, installations and storage areas become a legitimate military target in an escalating conflict in the middle east??
You would think it would jack up prices for sure, BUT, history says it ain’t necessarily so. During the Iran-Iraq War in the eighties they sank over a hundred of each others tankers and the price never budged. There is no shortage of tankers either. Go short on the insurers. Jim
If your company is desperate and deep in debt, as many oil producers are right now, two fast nickels are better than a slow dime.
The first person to know and the last person to tip you off about a black swan event will be a central banker.
It is reasonable to expect that what you hear from a media blurb by a reliable source is old news. Ask yourself if they would have already taken up several positions to benefit from their free advice.
He that does not study history is doomed to repeat it.
My trade idea is don’t go near oils and financials, or better yet short on rallies.
Howard………
Here is an idea for consideration: PFXF. It is an ETF that pays a dividend of 6.2%. Dividend is paid monthly…and that is REALLY nice. Stocks held are light on financials and that might just be good at this time. Off-set it with a short ETF and collect some interest? Tell me what you think.
The conversation is going back to where we can help each other. By the way I have just taken my fund’s portfolio to 40% cash. Cash is king on the upswing. Gold has more downside than upside at the moment and like others I am just being patient.
Changed to 85% cash / 15 % silver August 2015 ….retirement super included…don’t like being there,but be damned if I should be in anything else or hang it out at the drug store :)
Freezing oil production at all out pumping is like Fed bespeak; trying to talk the price of oil up this time. How long will it take the market to wake up to hot air this go round? Just shows that the powers that be only want to bite the hand that feeds them.
If a dog bites your hand when you feed it, you scold it and teach it better, or you get rid of it. Try that with government though, and it might get rid of YOU.
Feed a Tiger meat…your not the tiger’s friend…that meat is his as soon as he laid eyes on it….same for gov and your money.
You can’t sustain growth with escalating record debt. I’m expecting the stock market to take a major dive as unemployment should pick up and earnings should be dismal.
Agree … earnings to ratchet to unders per quarter…2016 not good for earnings…they no doubt go for the earnings drop forecast…then beat it by a penny…it’ll happen..they can’t help themselves.
Question about Operation Northern Thunder.
“350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called “Northern Thunderâ€. This exercise will reportedly last for 18 days, and during that time the airspace over northern Saudi Arabia will be closed to air traffic. This will be the largest military exercise in the history of the region, and it comes amid rumors that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are preparing for a massive ground invasion of Syria.
If you were going to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely how you would do it. If it happens, we should expect to see the Saudi coalition storm through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north.
The goal would be to take out the Assad regime before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react.
Pavel Krasheninnikov, a deputy of Russia’s State Duma, has warned Saudi Arabia that any military ground operation in Syria without Damascus’ consent would amount to a declaration of war, Press TV reported.
We could literally be looking at the spark that sets off World War 3.
So what has the mainstream media been saying about all of this?
James Bailey could find almost nothing on either Fox News or CNN…
” I just visited the home page for Foxnews.com and found not one single mention of the insane events now unfolding in the Middle East. I could not believe it, so I used my Find tool to search for Syria and Saudi Arabia. Not one mention!
Of course that could change at any moment, but nothing there when I checked. Their stories were all about the meaningless Presidential election, which has already been decided regardless of what we think about it, and other stories about entertainment, sports, Congressional political theater, etc.”
Is this what Obama was counting on so that he could declare Martial Law?
Any thoughts? A Plan C on short order?
Using the gaggle(google) search engine I found lots of links to ONT. It appears 20 countries are participating including Pakistan. Interesting,,, could get as busy as a one armed man sacking wildcats in a burning barn?
Mule
Google “Operation Northern Thunder” for information on this. It looks potentially like WWIII. Egypt, Pakistan, Morocco, the UAE and other Muslim nations are joining in, and the Saudis are said to have sent troops, tanks and planes to Turkey, which is already shelling Kurdish forces in Syria. Of course our media are more concerned with the Grammys, Oscars, weather and the clown shows in Iowa, New Hampshire and S. Carolina.
Oil stocks might just be worth a look.
While it’s a good plan to prepare our “buy list,” I still think it’s a little too early for investing in the oil/energy stocks.
Also, when the equity markets begin to REALLY sell off, gold and the miners will go down with all the others.
Pretty much agree Bonnie E….keeping my ammo dry and observing the rallies..high under high…rally bottom under rally bottom….can’t trust this market.
it’s all over the internet. just google operation northern thunder.
Russian artillery is already in Syria. They have a tactic of saturating an area with thermite rockets that raise the temp to thousands of degrees, destroying all life – maybe they won’t need tactical nukes, but they have them. Pakistan has nukes and delivery missiles, and is involved also. Things could go south in a hurry.
this is yesterday’s news. in fact, i heard about this a couple days ago. why are you so shocked?
I am shocked at the irresponsibility of our media in not informing us about such potentially catastrophic news. I know – now – that it has been developing for weeks, but, but the national media is only interested in clowns, like Donald, Hillary, Kanye , Ted and Peyton. And we-the-people are no better, in not demanding more.
This is a bullcrap market and if you know how to trade bullcrap you oughtta do alright.(<:
Mule
If the big reset hits, it will start a war. Wars are usually started over money. The powers that be need something to divert the public’s attention. Are you ready for the new digitIsed currency? Folks on the the street are already thinking streamline refi’s into fixed housing loans. What banks will orginate those loans? And, what entities will profit from refi loan sales in the secondary market? The bottom end RE market is ready to pop if rates keep adjusting up!
John, where did you get the info on Operation Thunder in the first place?
I left out Northern, sorry.
Mr. Larson, At the end of your Feb.16 write-up, you suggested “re-loading with inverse ETF puts”. I understand inverse ETF’s gain value when the underlying loses value and therefore,one would want to buy call options on an inverse ETF to make a profit. Correct?
The collapse of the equity market is a foregone conclusion. It is just a matter of speed and how long it takes to reach the bottom. You can check it out by tracing back to the highs since the 2nd quarter of 2015. The puzzle still lingering in my head is whether the miners, esp Gold and Silver, go down along with it or rise. If rise without falling, when will it starts.
That’s the $64 question….I remember in 2008…gold and gold stocks sold off before the bull run…my guess is it could happen again…and the reason is classic misallocation in a crisis…most traders ill be so far under…they sell gold positions to cover margin calls on bad stock positions…that’s the play…then equilibrium on the gold price and the start of a gold bull run…esp as govs start the printing presses up again all over the globe..I’m being patient..expect everything to fall at once…then send in the troops and the reserves to clean up.
This whole house of cards started by our Fed “Reserve”, as there is really no reserve, the rich fed moguls got the reserve for themselves, is about to come crahing down