The night of the Indiana primary, something interesting happened in the currency market.
Market Roundup
As the Asian session was just opening, the news of Donald Trump’s decisive victory pushed the dollar higher against most major trading partners, especially against the yen.
Then, later in the night, when Ted Cruz dropped out of the race, the greenback pushed even higher.
For most investors, the notion that the Donald is good for the dollar may seem bizarre. This is, after all, the man who sent the media and conventional economists into outbursts of rage when he suggested that the U.S. government should negotiate its debt with creditors.
In all fairness to Trump, that wasn’t really what he said. He was simply musing about the prospect of using “on-the-run” bonds (those freshly issued by the Treasury) to pay off the “off-the-run” bonds (those that have been circulating in the secondary market for a while).
The idea is that off-the-run bonds trade at a discount to on-the-run bonds, kind of like the discount that occurs when a brand-new car is driven off the lot. The product is essentially the same, but now it’s worth a lot less.
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| The U.S. presidential race could have a big impact on the dollar/yuan rate. |
In any case, Trump’s ruminations were not even that unorthodox. The U.S. Treasury considered such a plan as early as 1999, when the U.S. was running budget surpluses and when the government was thinking about reducing the face amount of U.S. debt. Still, the kernel behind Trump’s idea does imply that he is betting on the deterioration of U.S. credit as a way to squeeze the creditors.
So why then would the dollar rally on the idea of a Trump win? The reason actually lies elsewhere. One of Trump’s strongest and most committed policy stances is that the U.S.-China trade relationship should be seriously re-examined.
His take-no-prisoners stance against the Chinese could actually become the key stress point in the global economy. China is already hurting. After spending more than a trillion dollars in additional credit, the Chinese economy continues to slow. In fact, imports have fallen by double-digits on a year-over-year basis for the first four months of 2016.
| “Now that a Trump presidency looks like a real possibility, the prospect of a yuan crash has become a much bigger risk.” |
Despite their typical bravado, the Chinese leadership is clearly worried. And what they fear most is a rapid devaluation of the yuan. The country is already running a debt-to-GDP ratio of 280%. And despite $3 trillion in reserves, Chinese policymakers are very concerned that capital outflows could quickly deplete their war chest.
For the past few months, mollified by the dovish stance of the Fed and the still uncertain outcome of the Republican primaries, the yuan stabilized. But now that a Trump presidency looks like a real possibility, the prospect of a yuan crash has become a much bigger risk.
Trump, of course, is the master of seizing his opponents’ weakness and will likely be much more hardnosed with the Chinese than Hillary Clinton would be. Little wonder, then, that the yuan has fallen to its weakest reading against the buck in more than two months. The currency markets are beginning to understand just how the game will be played.
Although dollar strength may be viewed as positive from a political point of view, economically it could wreak havoc on the markets.
U.S. equity markets are American in name only. Many Dow Jones-listed companies earn as much as 70% of their revenue offshore. A strengthening dollar could depress earnings for several quarters forward and cause a correction in stocks of 20% or more.
That’s why for equity investors this summer the most important number to follow will not be the market’s P/E ratio, but rather the dollar’s exchange rate and Trump’s presidential poll readings. As the dollar starts to rise along with Trump’s poll numbers, stocks could fall hard.
Best wishes,
Boris Schlossberg
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The results are in, and while Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in West Virginia on Tuesday night, he’s still a long shot in a win for the candidacy. Meanwhile, Donald Trump captured both West Virginia and Nebraska, and he continues on track as the presumptive Republican nominee. Among Democrats in West Virginia, only 27% said they want a candidate who continues Obama’s policies. In both states, more than 90% of Republican voters said they were “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the federal government. This shows that both sides of the race are indeed hungry for a change.
Due to the backdrop of the Olympics and the upcoming elections, this summer is bound to be what Ricardo Marques, a vice president from Budweiser, calls “maybe the most American summer ever.” So Budweiser is going to potentially absurd branding extremes by renaming its beer “America” for the summer and through the November elections. Summer is traditionally peak beer-selling season, so this could prove to be a smart marketing move. Time will tell.
 Toyota Motor Corp. forecast a bigger-than-expected 35% tumble in net profit for the current year due to the sharp appreciation of the yen, ending three straight years of record profits driven in part by a weak currency. The Japanese automaker said profit for the year ending in March 2017 will fall to 1.5 trillion yen ($13.81 billion) from 2.31 trillion yen in the prior year, far short of the average 2.25 trillion yen for the current year estimated by 28 analysts, according to Thomson Reuters.
JetBlue Airways leads the pack, at least when it comes to customer satisfaction with airlines. That’s according to the J.D Power and Associates 2016 North America Airline Satisfaction Study, which JetBlue dominated, coming in first for the 11th consecutive year. Do you agree?
What are your thoughts on the recent primary results? Do you share the views of your fellow Americans who want to see a drastic change in Washington? Are Toyota’s recent earnings results a harbinger of what’s to come in the auto industry? Is JetBlue your favorite airline? We welcome your thoughts below.
The Money and Markets team
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{ 108 comments }
I liked your article and I think you will be right. Oil has been the thing that is keeping markets propped up, so when that changes I think the market will too.
Thanks
Sorry Steve I think when oil drops some other cock a manny idea will come along and prop up markets. If you look at the above you will see that the Donald had a decisive victory and European stocks were just opening and shot up in response as did the dollar. The market is looking to clutch any old straw of hope to justify going higher. Investors are scared because they know the market no longer trades on fundamentals but sheer greed. They want to stay in the game because its the only profit engine left but the game scares them. Its like watching a smaller Preying Mantis male mate with the larger female. When the music stops there will be few chairs left to park their butt on. The music and chairs part kind of reminds me of the Titanic.
Steve many people have no idea on how dependent tier are on oil production. Not only is our economy depended upon oil, the world’s economy is dependent upon oil and it’s needed for much mlore than filling you gas tank.
Forgot to mention: Trump ill not only be good for our economy but also for business and will make America great again.
Developer account in our country and the people the United States for jobs we should go to the colors which we have found all the oil more than the Arabian countries got on the most of us here will give us prophets have a prize our country’s pride and take her out of the bed and take a couple years but we have enough to do that however the politicians are holding this in mind it does not want people to know too much about it but we’ve already found the oil it’s there it’s a proven fact so we get we the people United States need to force the government start drilling
Both parties are crooks and deserve to be ousted. Power corrupts and there are a lot of people who deserve to be in jail. To all of us voters,both parties are one. The government has too much control. We are not free any more and the minorities are controlling the majority.
I do not agree that both parties are one. They do act similarly on many issues, however. Take the National Debt. Obama and the Dems are spendthrifts – they could care less about balancing our budget….Obama has almost doubled our National Debt almost 100% in just 7 years. But the Repubs currently in office like Ryan will not stop them….so they are in effect……complicit to this disaster.
What we need is TERM LIMITS. Congress members should be limited to no more than 3 terms in the House, 2 in the senate….some would argue even less. The career politicians that spend 1/2 of their time getting re-elected need to be a relic of the past. Ted Kennedy was in the Senate 47 years. Bernie has been in Congress 24 years. McConnell – 32 years, Reid – 36 years. This kind of nonsense breeds corruption and leads to government that does not work. And that is what we now have.
Without term limits, we have to find and elect an honest politician once, then we can keep him until he’s corrupt. With term limits, we have to find and elect that honest politician every few years. If you can’t do it once in 47 years (using your Ted Kennedy example), how do you think you can do it every six or eight?
unfortunitlly the people you want out make their own rules . they also are the ones that have to vote on their own change. so forget term limits.
The Constitution has a provision (Article 5) that allows the states to bypass Congress and approve amendments to the Constitution directly. There is an effort currently underway called the Convention of States that will propose term limits for members of Congress.
Ronald Reagan ran the first peacetime deficits without thought as to how they might later be repayed (he blew his budget by two trillion in two terms. He actually taught the tax and spend dems that borrow and spend can be done without ruffling the feathers of the taxpayer. Big george followed with a trillion dollars of overspending (no taxes levied to pay the freight) like RR. Willy-bob Mostly ran deficits with two years of extreme revenues from equity profits. Little george ran 4 trillion deficits in two terms. Obama (he truely hates this country and Wants it to fail) has run 9T in deficits with admittedly a very bad economy to start his admin. Reps and dems went the way of the dodo. for thirty years, we’ve elected neocons and neocoms. They are on the same bus. To say we have two parties is partially true, but barely. I agree with term limits.
Progressives don’t know how to budget
i agree fully TERM LIMITS FOR SURE
The biggest mistake by the Founding Fathers was the lack of TERM LIMITS. We were smart enough to set up one for the Executive branch, but Congress is killing us! There needs to be a major change in how this country is managed. The Congressional branch needs to be living within the same requirements as their constituents regarding Social Security, Medicare, “Affordable Care”, and every other entitlement. The Terms need to be limited to 3/4 in the House, 2 in the Senate and a maximum of 20 years for representative government.They would have a hard time living with 401k’s and minimal contribution pensions.
Our Founding Fathers did not plan for citizens to make a career out of being a Representative or a Senator, I am a descendant of John Adams, who returned to farming and the practice of law after serving as President. What a novel idea?
I agree that term limits would at the very least limit how much money a politician can siphon from the taxpayers before he’s gone. Unfortunately the conundrum is there are far too few honest politicians around. As the mystery writer Congressman X wrote in his newly released book, the first concern a politician has after he’s elected is getting re-elected. He further writes they have little time to read their bills since money raising occupies virtually all their time. He also points out that they believe voters are stupid and politicians are unconcerned about spending their tax money. Debt is something for future generations to consider. All in all, an honest politician is nothing more than an oxymoron.
How do we get them to pass such legislation for term limits?
Identify the incumbents with the nobility, the very inequality that prompted the declaration,
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Eventually, or, we hope and pray, sooner, the lifelong nobility of the incumbents will become as much anathema to U.S. citizens and legal residents as the pretense of royalty reigning on American soil, as repulsive as the titles “Lord”, “Earl”, “Duke”, “Baron”, and “serf”. and as odoriferous as the attribution of personal worth according to one’s place in a hierarchical nobility chart.
Term limits or not , corruption is everywhere and BUREAUCRACY controls everybody by their power of INTERPRETATION of the ENACTED LAWS and their immunity from being responsible if their interpretations are DISALLOWED by COURTS while TAXPAYERS are forced into paying up IN ADVANCE and then for the LAWYERS who fight on their behalf against the bureaucratic interpretations and the taxpayers are not compensated if they win in court.
F151 is right. Term limits are necessary to limit the control of the career politicians who offer absolutely nothing, but to retain power, lies and corruption abound. 3 terms in the House, 2 in the Senate I would agree with…
In addition to your excellent suggestion for term limits, any person running for a higher office has to first resign their current office. For example, Cruz and Rubio couldn’t run for prez unless resigning their senate seats first. If you are a governor, same thing. You can’t take unlimited time off from a civilian job to search for another job, why should running for office be any different?
rick
You have covered the problem but the solution is elusive. Yes your not free anymore yes the government has to much control but they have structured the system so that you have no alternative out. We are like chickens in a cage. Every once in a while we are pulled out of said cage plucked and then put back in to grow new feathers and the process repeats itself. The really sad part is that one cannot impartially sit back and form a true opinion till they are retired and have time to watch and learn. Seniors are never to old to learn. Unfortunately the masses are rushing around working, keeping a household together paying bills etc. to pay much attention to the actual goings on in the world. They tune in to idiotic media like Fox news to make important decisions. I have over my 78 years watch this brick house being built brick by brick on quicksand.
Rick – You Got It RIGHT – 100%. To limit this nonsense we must have Term Limits for all members of both the Senate & House of Reps.
Both parties are crooks and deserve to be ousted. Power corrupts and there are a lot of people who deserve to be in jail. To all of us voters,both parties are one. The government has too much control. We are not free any more and the minorities are controlling the majority.
The very fact that Donald Trump knows enough about economics and our economy (as well as that of other countries) puts him head and tails above the Democrat candidates. Not only would Hillary not do this, she would never understand it so could not act upon it. We cannot have another Dem in the WH. We need someone who will see the problems and deal with them head-on, not a fumbler or a dreamer.
Dear Carolyn,
You’re speaking my language. speaking of Hilary. going back to when she was the wife of the governor of Arkansas, I can’t remember his name, among other swindles, she was a novice trader in the futures market for pork bellies and turned either $1,000 or $10,000 as her stake, into a profit of $100,000 in a very short time. I’ve done options and futures trading through the years, and I’m definitely not a novice, the odds of her success has to be in the range of at least one million to one! And then there was the White Water real estate scam. A complete crooked deal. If it hadn’t been the Governor, they would still be behind bars.
To skip a whole lot of other deals and scams, not to mention the abandonment of the four very brave men at the embassy in Benghazi, the wife of the former Governor is deeply involved in the “Clinton Crime Foundation”, to quote El Rushbo, she is constantly receiving generous donations from wonderful, caring people throughout the Middle East. And finally, Goldman Sachs was so impressed with her investing acumen, that they paid her in excess of $600,000 for a couple of speeches. As the saying goes: “Jeez Louise.” I don’t know what it means, but I think it applies.
It’s almost incomprehensible that anyone doesn’t see her $100,000 futures bet as anything other than a bribe. The Clinton Foundation has received over $100,000,000 in “donations” since they left the White House. If you think these “donors” don’t expect anything in return you are denying reality. All politics is corrupt and this couple is at the top of the pyramid. Their entire eight year term was riddled with scandal. Bill was disbarred for lying to Congress. He is literally the man in the trench coat hiding in the shadows looking for his next victim. He has been hanging out with a convicted child molester on “Fantasy Island”. Anyone who votes for four more years of this depravity will get exactly what they deserve. Jim
Carolyn
Well said
I myself voted for Bernie Sanders but if Hillery Clinton is the nominee im voting for Trump and im not alone ive talked to other democrats and we just dont feel Hillery Clinton has the integrity and honesty to be president she cant be trusted…period.
If all you Repubs think the country is in so much s*it & so bad why don’t you all F off to somewhere else.GPO party of the FU I’ve got mine .most. Problem here is that most posters are not very honest themselves SO they think everyone else is like themselves.
Hillary understands economics well enough to know the more money she and Bill can stash in their Clinton Foundation the better off they will be. Mr. Trump at least understands a P & L, something politicians know absolutely nothing about. I don’t think Mr. Trump is in it for the money. Perhaps more for his ego, but that’s fine. The more he’s a success the bigger his ego. We desperately need a political leader that isn’t in it for financial gain and Mr. Trump seems to be that person.
Yeh! The Donald. We need hard nosed leadership. He built his empire on hitting when the “iron was hot;” Negotiating from strength and hitting the weakness of the opponent. Oh, a wall will not be built but constructive reform in that area.
We better get the Donald in there before China forecloses on the White House.
I’m not real thrilled with The Donald, but I can’t stand Hillary. I don’t trust her; she is a proven liar and will say anything if she thinks that it will benefit her. I would hate to be Trump’s Campaign Manager, because I doubt he listens to much of what his C. Manager says. The Donald says what he thinks- I may not always agree or think that he should have said what he said, but at least I know where he stands! I think that Hillary only says what she thinks will sell her candidacy. Hopefully, she’ll get exposed ask liar and loose cannon and will be defeated by The Donald in the upcoming elections. We can’t AFFORD another Democrat in the White House. Obama is a Disaster!!
The political divide is really quite simple. There are those that have had or do have a beneficial relationship with government and those that don’t. I don’t deride the first group and they shouldn’t criticize me. We are each voting according to our experience? I fall into the latter so my vote is a foregone conclusion. Jim
I had the extreme pleasure of spending time with J.Irving Weiss in the 1970’s in Californa. What a great guy and financial mentor. He was always concerned about the financial acumen that existed in the Capitol’s politicians. Now we have more violence, homelessness(did not exist in the 50’s and 60’s),and contiuing price inflation(housing). Irving was worried then about the deficit being close to a trillion, now close to,20 trillion. Rick you are 100 percent correct. How can the government support us when we support the government?
@Geoffrey Lowe, homelessness didn’t exist in the 60’s? Even among returning Vietnam veterans? Where?
I hitched all over the country, but I never found that Shangri-La where you lived then.
The worlds financial system has become to large and ponderous and is being fueled by out of control greed and will soon collapse. What will happen I have no idea but it will surely get very ugly and possibly explosive. I can’t see any way to turn things around so get ready if you can figure out how.
Thank you for putting the record straight about Trump’s stance on buying back debt at a discount! The context of his statement in this regard is now clear! Let us hope that CNN and others (Fourth Estate) will do the same!
Never flown with JetBlue. Where does it fly?
Thanks for putting Trump’s comments in perspective. Now that I understand them, I feel I can make intelligent decisions about the dollar and the economy.
A vote for Sanders is a vote in opposition to all those who have always and continue to say “THE UNITED STATES IS THE GREATEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. I still believe that so I will vote for Hillary
Sam, why would you vote for her? In all the years I’ve watched the Clintons I honestly cannot think of even one good thing she has accomplished. There are no end to the bad and crooked things that the two of them have done, and I invite you to list just 5 or 6 positive things Hillary has done. Okay, while Bill was President he and the Repubs in Congress did produce a balanced budget, but that was more on the efforts of the Congress than on his part. And, she had nothing to do with this unusual event. Bernie may be at least half nuts, but she is one evil piece of work. Tell me why I’m wrong; thanks.
sam
The last thing we need is a husband and wife presidency.
Mr Ellis the reason I can not tell you are wrong is because you are not wrong. I have lived in Arkansas for 30 years and never heard any thing positive about them. In my opinion they are dangerous people. Another opinion I have is after living 80 years and observing what is going on is that the way of life I grew up with is disintegrating and not for the better.
i voted for Bernie Sanders but a vote for Hillery Clinton is impossible so if it comes to a Trump versus Clinton race im switching sides and voting Trump its best for the country and us all.
Yeah Sam,keep believing and dreaming,one morning you ll wake up,your being run by a bunch idiots
??????????????????????????????????
SAM
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Sam; please list at least ONE truly good thing for this country that Hillary has accomplished. She was a complete failure as Sec. of State. Just remember the Russian Reset Button. Please do not ever forget her Benghazi lies to the victim’s families and the country. A vote for Hillary is a vote for a congenital liar guilty of major crimes and felonies. Please reconsider voting for Sanders. At least you won’t be voting for Hillary and you needn’t worry. The fix is in. Their party won’t ever let him win.
The system we are using is not working, the system that will work for all is the 12 vision party, get rid of religious intervinsion all of and use what is real, and strive for self worth and value for one’s own benifit. We have the technology yet we the people lack comittment to our own self, take control of one’s own responsibility and get rid of all entities that want to control the people.
I want Politics to be just that I see no reason to think as Muslims do that politics and religion should be treated as one and the same. AT 92 years I am disappointed with the GOP leaders. I have always had to make a decision between two good men. Thank God for Hillary. I can not understand Trump or how he bought his way into the candidacy. And the last straw was the flier put out by the Faith and Freedom Coalition with four of the GOP’s worst candidates photos asking for support of the ticket.
Bless America but what will happen to us if the GOP wins? I like to be proud of the things I stand for and our leaders but Canada seems to be a better choice led by a young honest gentleman, than a dishonorable GOP candidate leading the USA.
Emmalou
An open honest and impartial educated mind may see things differently
Careful EK your wisdom and age is showing.
Emmalou,
If the young “honest gentleman” you refer to is anything like his father, elected (PM 1968), then we will be in trouble again!!
I am sure you mean well, Emmalou and I thank you for your comments. Since you are so enamored with Mrs. Clinton, perhaps you can share the details of the Clinton Foundation; its supporters and its contributors; and, oh yes, please be sure to include the contributors to that Canadian “charity” which some believe to be a funnel for undisclosed foreign donations to the Clinton Foundation. I am left to wonder if there might be Patriot Act and Bank Secrecy Act violations woven through the Foundation.
Emmalou: Congrats on being still engaged in politics at 92. I’m 80 and lots of folks younger than me don’t feel it’s worth staying engaged in politics.
I too have wondered about Canada but not the same way ie maybe a better a country. A trip to Vancover opened my eyes to the great number of Muslims who live there. If they are mostly citizens then I see problems for their Govt. The muslim faith is a fusion of religion and government for all believers.Sharia law is what they must follow. For Muslims living under different structured governments they must violate some of their beliefs to exist lawfully in that country. Example would be the way women are treated under Shreia. Like others who want more freedom that’s a good happening but for strict Muslims they must obey their laws and violate some of the freedoms offered by the western governments. A real set up for for all.
In the USA Muslims have fought for the right to judge their own by sharia law. Some courts have allowed this to my horror–if we allow other countries laws to be ok above our laws we’ll have more confusion than we have now. Obama wants United Nations laws to trump ours in some cases–same thing.
All this to say I just wonder what compromises the Canadians have made to their large Muslim population. Are Canadians satisfied or is it that our media doesn’t want us too see how Canada is dealing with this issue?
How could anyone vote for Hillary. She didn’t think it important enough to keep our gov. secrets secret. Too busy with her private email…hopefully if she is elected she will care enough to keep gov. business separate from her personal business. Anyone else would be in jail for what she has done.
Dear Jane what makes you think she is going to change?????????
As an outsider looking in your man Mr D Trump, I give him zero out of ten for tact and diplomacy, If he comes to his senses and realises that he cannot bully all of the people all of the time, he might just be what the world need’s to deliver the kick up the backside regarding the worlds debt, You have to admire him for just saying what he see’s and he is up front enough to do some real table thumping when push comes to shove, but please America send him on a calm down Donald, course of diplomacy. All the damage has been done to the worlds economy, If he becomes President I would guess he would feel like he has been shafted for taking on such a mess, It will be interesting to see what he can do as long as he can remember to be firm and diplomatic, Who ever becomes your President will have a golden chance to change the economic map, If they do not take the moment then it will be another term of lies and money paper printing to put of the eventual crash, America just get a President who will not kick the can down the road just to keep votes, In the UK we are having a tough time but at least we have a government that realises, that it inherited a huge amount of debt, and is taking vote harming methods to deal with the problems. I am afraid that George .W Bush and our ex Prime Minister Tony Blair have a lot to answer for regarding the state of the worlds debt.
True those two have a lot to do with what the world is facing today.But we must not forget also the former Reserve bank governor ,Alan Greenspan.He supported this two mans wars by printing money and manipulating interest rates.He is key to what is happening now with no doubt.
They will never answer for all the harm that they have done to the world. The rich and powerfuls feet are never held to the fire.
So true Richard .And their WMD lie wars got thousands killed .Wasted millions of dollars & created ISIS.
After Trump and Cruz cool off a tad, it will get noticed that the big issue on our southern border are Sanctuary Cities. These are cities in which the Mayor has ordered city police officers not to contact immigration authorities, about any person whom they arrest.
In non-sanctuary cities, like my hometown of Troy, Michigan, if a person is picked up and has a phony drivers’ license or other ID, police will call Customs and Border Security and ask if a person matching that description, is thought to be in the US illegally. Customs very often will call back, with news that authorities in some foreign country, believe a fugitive has fled their country, and want him returned to stand trial…and he looks very much like the guy who tried to pass a bad check at a gas station in Troy and just got picked up.
This ends up doing a favor to both countries. The fugitive is returned to stand trial. And that fugitive does not launch a new criminal career in the US. He has to serve out the sentence his countrymen slapped on him for previous crimes.
In the Sanctuary Cities, this practice isn’t followed. US Customs can show up at the Los Angeles Jail and ask to see a prisoner…but LAPD cannot initiate the contact with Customs.
Who benefits from Sanctuary Cities?
Crime syndicates that operate in the US and abroad, for one. If their members get arrested in Los Angeles or some other Sanctuary City, they don’t get deported…even if they are wanted for a crime abroad.
Labor racketeers benefit also.
People who aren’t legally allowed to work in the US, don’t have the right to sue an employer for job discrimination, unsafe working conditions, reckless endangerment, toxics exposure, on-the-job injuries, or union busting.
This means that sweatshops which exploit foreign workers, do so routinely in Sanctuary Cities. If city officials turn a deaf ear to worker’s complaints, those workers’ only recourse is to send their savings somewhere safe, and return home.
Of course, there’s a problem with the Sanctuary City concept. Title 18 US Code, Section 3, prohibits a crime called Misprision Of Felony. It mandates anyone with actual knowledge of certain crimes, to report what they know, to federal authorities. A city official who follows a policy set down by a Mayor, and refuses to report arresting someone using a fake ID, to Customs, may be violating this law. If Mr Trump’s attorney general decides to prosecute a few such offenses, organized crime may never be quite the same. Close down the sweatshops, end the exploitation of foreign workers, stop the money laundering that goes on in parallel with the exploitation industry, and return the occasional wanted Mexican crook to a Mexican judge for sentencing to a term in a Mexican jail, instead of sheltering him in Los Angeles and allowing him to run a business that promises poor Mexicans a good job in America…as long as they let the crook smuggle them here illegally, tell them where to work, when to work, when to rest, when they can get paid, how much they have to pay back for the privilege of staying here, and oh, yes…complain about me and I’ll take away all of your money and then call Customs myself and have you deported…it’s precisely the sheltering of this kind of criminality, that makes so very many Mexican citizens dubious about our country and afraid that criminals have too much power here.
I sympathize with their concerns. Criminals DO have too much power here.
If Trump takes some serious steps to shut down the labor rackets, both Mexico and the US will benefit. It’s difficult to earn an honest living. Giving crooks a license to rob the innocent, makes honest work much harder.
Yes Bob agreed
Bob, that makes too much good sense to ever be tried here.
But let me know if another (not third world) country implements it.
He wants a wall, dislikes women, has changed his opinion twice about Israel’s leaders,
can not carry on a conversation verbatum without losing his temper, and has lost the respect of most of the candidates that ran with him. I will not vote for him and knowing GOP friends will stay home and not vote for anyone. IS that progress?
Emmalou
You haven’t been paying attention have you?
Good one!
Last week we flew American to Puerto Rico and Jet Blue home to Chicago. Go Blue! Much more comfortable and accommodating.
Hi Boris
As a nation regardless of whether we support the GOP or the Democrats we all have more in common than any issue that divides us. For decades, not just the last seven years we have been promised stuff by both sides and been disappointed. The last thing we need now is another Politian promising us more stuff and either growing our debt or disappointing us all yet again. There is nothing wrong with wanting to control our borders as many other countries do. There is nothing wrong with wanting fair trade rather than just free trade. There is nothing wrong with wanting some of our industry back with fair paying jobs. But we need to be strong and firm and fair in this process. The reason we are going to see interesting currency moves is because of Trump. He has a pair and he knows what to do. The primaries are mostly theatre, however we are playing chess in international trade and our trading partners fear someone who will finally stand up for change. This will keep some markets choppy, however we need to decide do we want to stand up for our union or just go on printing and spending other peoples money.
Hillary wants Trump to release his taxes – which he should – but I want Hillary to release the Clinton Crime Foundation’s donors. It should be against the law to let the donations go to Canada and then come to the USA bundled without identifying the donors.
Great point chuck
change yes and necessary but not with an ego like Donald.
A HIllary win would be a continuation towards her Socialist States of America ideologyspawned from hers and Bill’s college days. The masses are angry and want change back to our roots. i.e., the Constitution.
As for Trump “negotiating” debts, remember, YOU are a creditor of the U.S. government. If you have been paying into Social Security, etc., most of your life, the government owes YOU. How do you feel about the politicians “negotiating” a lower payoff to YOU? That is what Trump is saying, when you look behind the glossy cover.
Chuck, would you mind elaborating on what you have seen “behind the glossy cover”? I don’t recall Mr. Trump saying much if anything about negotiating a lower payout to S/S recipients. Also what makes you think any candidate will continue to back the empty IOUs that represent S/S? I’m certain we’ll see a continuing rise in the age for S/S benefits for younger workers along with an adjusted payout based on financial circumstances for existing seniors regardless of the next president. In any case YOU and I will not get what we were originally promised, you can take that to the bank!
Our great Country has been declining for years with corrupt politicians (both Republican and Democrat) lining their pockets with the money from the disastrous deals they make with foreign countries. These politicians have the people hookwinked into believing they will turn things around, but they need another term to make it happen, then another, then another. Then the American common people just vote these swindlers back into office with no regard for holding them accountable to their promises of making America the great Country it used to be. But of course, people are involved in trying to make ends meet, raise a family and have a livelihood that affords them some luxury, albeit far and few between while the politicians get richers off our backs. Then we are put in the middle of every situation overseas and spend our tax dollars to defend their freedom, less they forget we have starving people with no jobs that America (the polticians) has turned its backs on because apparently they make more money by getting involved in every conflict in other countries. Let’s take care of our own first, and if we do try to assist other counties, please tell them that we will be glad to do so but they must put up the money rather than depleting our military dollars. Listen people, our Country is falling apart day by day and Washington wants to continue to raise our taxes to pay for fixing our city’s problems but it apparently ends up getting used somewhere else because they can do whatever they want. We need to stand up and hold our leaders accountable. A democracy is for the people, by the people but our voice is being silenced more and more.
We don’t need another Clinton in Washington, but I would vote to put her in a jail in a foreign country cause I don’t want a single tax dollar being spent on her in a country club setting. She needs to put in some hard time. There’s plenty more to be said, but there are millions of Americans out there who want to voice their concerns to bring our Country back from the brink of disaster. I am a very concerned citizen.
It’s gonna be interesting to see how the situation in Greece plays out this summer. That’s the country that’s been worst hit by the European Soverign Debt Crisis.
Bob:
That was a great post about sanctuary cities. My opinion is that in CA, we have a sanctuary state. Illegals come and go at their pleasure, and have decimated entire industries as employers hire them with impunity. Construction trades including but not limited to carpentry, roofing, and landscape maintenance have virtually no legitimate competition as untaxed income skyrockets. At production housing sites in northern California, only the supervisor speaks English.
A big part of this problem is solved if we secure the border AND eliminate the absurdity of sanctuary cities. More importantly, we need severe penalties for drug importation. Life in prison is too good for these peddlers of death who bring this scourge to America.
Misogyny, bigotry, bullying, hatred, and the rise of the fascist state. All good reasons to vote for Donald Trump. Our economy was nearly in complete free fall when President Obama was elected. The Dow was near 7,000. We were losing jobs at the rate of 250,000/month. Despite no help from Republicans to right the ship of state, the Dow has now surpassed 18,000 (although the daily fluctuation keeps it under 18,000). More than 20 million people now have health insurance that didn’t have it before. Despite more than 25 years of made up scandals against Hillary, the Republicans have never secured even a minor victory other than keeping her name in the news and insinuating that she is somehow “crooked”. To a certain extent, it’s worked due to the fact that Americans are generally not well educated and don’t recognize propaganda. You take that coupled with the Republican initiative to destroy “The Fairness Doctrine” and you end up with Fox News whose accuracy is somewhere less than 57%. Then you look at Trump, and Politifact claims that 91% of what he says is false and many of you think this is the man you want to lead this country ? Wow !!! We currently have negative “illegal immigration” stats. More of them are leaving this country are than coming into this country. So who hires these “illegals” ? That would be farming corporations like Tyson. It has been estimated that if you rounded up all the illegals in this country (11 million or so) the GDP would drop 2%. Why not severely fine businesses that knowingly hire illegal aliens ? How many of you reading this have a gardener, housekeeper, handyman, or construction worker who may be illegal ? So why build a wall ? It’s like Republicans to want to fix problems that don’t exist like in person voter fraud, or transgender people attacking children in restrooms. Term limits is not the answer. Public financing of elections is the answer. Our economic allies in this world deserve an America that they can trust and rely on. Trump as Commander-in-Chief is not the answer. He used to be for abortion. Now he’s against it and wants women to be punished if they get one. He used to be against the minimum wage, now he’s for it. He said he would self finance his candidacy. Now he’s begging the RNC to help him. If he were to be elected, you don’t know what you would get. He may be the liberal that the conservatives claim he is. He may be the next Benito Mussolini. We just don’t know. He’s that unpredictable. Mr. Market does not like unpredictable. Most of Wall Street is lining up to support Hillary Clinton.
Bill
We need change, not more of the same from more Politian’s.
Well said, but it’s doubtful anybody will take your comments seriously in this forum.
What flavor are you having today, Bill? Cherry, Black Cherry, Grape, Lemonade, Lemon-Lime, Orange, Pink Lemonade, Strawberry, Tropical Punch, Watermelon Cherry, or Mandarina-Tangerine? Please put it down long enough to give attention to some facts.
On Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008, election day, the DJIA peaked at 9,653.95, marking the end of a 4-week overall climb since dropping out of 5-digit territory on Oct.7th.
From the election day close at 9,625.28 (NOT around 7,000), and the introduction of the “Office of the President-Elect,” the Dow dropped nearly a thousand points in the next two days. Then it gradually sank for the next unknown number of months – known now as four months, but an unforeseeable span of time in the midst of the “It”s not a crash.” The DJIA continued a slow, steady slide into the bargain sub-basement, until it bottomed out on Friday, Mar. 6, 2009, at 6,469.95.
It took another seven months, until Oct. 7th, to rise and stay above the 2008 election day close. It took:
until Oct. 14, 2009, to break through 10,000, and until July 8, 2010, to stay above 10,000;
until Apr. 9, 2010, to break through 11,000, and until Oct. 7, 2011, to stay above 11,000;
until Jan. 26, 2011, to break through 12,000, and until Dec. 22. 2011, to stay above 12,000;
until Feb. 21, 2012, to break through 13,000, and until Jan. 2, 2013, to stay above 13,000;
until Feb. 1, 2013, to break through 14,000, and until Mar. 4, 2013, to stay above 14,000;
until May 3, 2013, to break through 15,000, and until Oct. 11, 2013, to stay above 15,000;
until Nov. 18, 2013, to break through 16,000, and until Feb. 16, 2016, to stay above 16,000;
until July 3, 2014, to break through 17,000, and until Mar. 11, 2016, to stay above 17,000, if God wills it.
Of course, these rising numbers hardly represent American prosperity, as companies may rise in so-called “market value” as they shed American workers and hire foreign temp workers and H-1B visa holders in their place, or as they simply move offshore and sell the companies’ manufacturing divisions to foreign owners and managers for a steady and stable share of the profits. Somehow, the number of workers a company employs does not figure into its “market value,” even though, IMHO, loyal and committed employees, with their education, expertise, and experience, are the most valuable asset of any manufacturing business.
With U.S. citizens and legal residents making up an ever smaller percentage of the employees at companies listed on the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and even the DJI, the Dow and other indexes like it become, more and more so, little more than gambling markers for royals, European elites, and OPEC oil sheiks.
You are so correct Bill.I feel the same as you .I used to be able to stomach republicans. Now I can’t stand the selfish B#stards.
Make no mistake. Those who support Trump, no matter how reluctantly, have crossed a moral boundary. They are standing with a leader who encourages prejudice and despises the weak. They are aiding the transformation of a party formed by Lincoln’s blazing vision of equality into a party of white resentment. Those who find this one of the normal, everyday compromises of politics have truly lost their way.
Have you lost your way Bill?
Bill has indeed, without doubt, truly lost his way! While there’s no doubt he’s correct that the Republican party has lost it’s way, I believe his assessment of Mr. Trump is a little bizarre. I have to see more of how Trump will lead this country before I judge his moral compass. Right now there is absolutely no morality in the White House at all. Morality is in the eyes of the beholder but Obama & Moochelle are the poster children for immorality in my opinion. And Obama’s documented 5 million tax dollars spent for their last 2 vacations isn’t fiscally responsible either. Your choice would be Hillary and the thought of morality and the Clintons is absolutely unthinkable, without doubt.
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-05-12/donald-trumps-budget-bamboozle-continues-with-surplus-promise?google_editors_picks=true
Here we go again. I wish these Fed governors would keep their blasted mouths shut and quit roiling markets. Rosengren is now out there with comments and I wish he would keep his mouth shut. Sometimes I think these turkeys have a personal axe to grind in public or boost their own portfolios. You have a Fed meeting get up say your piece and vote and after that shut up.
Too much government on the Federal level! Really how does that affect your life except for taxes? What we have in our wonderful USA is 50 States with the following levels: State, County, Multi-Juriditional Districts( for water, soil, transportation, education, etc., etc., etc. crossing county & municipal boundaries; even state borders) & local city, town, village governments. NO ONE pays attention to State & Local government…We are overwhelmed with ridiculous Bureaucracy…that is to say we have a DICTATORSHIP OF BUREAUCRACY! We DO NOT TEACH BASIC CIVICS to our children…and you are worried about term limits in Congress & Senate! How about Gerrymandering at the 50 States?
And u will vote for that fascist demagogue, Trump…R U All that INTELLECTUALLY empty?
Peter; who is an alternative to Trump at this point? Hillary? Bernie? Who you suggest as your choice for our next leader. Indeed we have been overwhelmed by the federal bureaucracy. Care to choose with whom your high school daughter showers with? The feds have cleverly lulled the states into budgeting with the inclusion of their funding and are now blackmailing us into submission with their fascist goals. Regarding the schools, they propose Common Core teaching methods to force the states to wash away any concept of civics, history, self achievement or individuality from our youth. Obama’s war on the suburbs is designed to force people back into major cities for easier control. Chicago’s mayor Emmanuel wasn’t due to the will of the people. You are very right in being concerned about creeping federal government. Control of the masses is the prime directive of the feds. State’s rights are the feds biggest headache.
Having perused all of the comments and opinions offered here – the most misunderstood item is why, what, and who! Why is the U.S. and the world in such a mess, what caused it, and who is behind it? Research “The Bilderberg Group”. In 2008, while trying to find out who Obama was and where he came from, I found a link to this group. A book by Daniel Estulin titled, “The True Story of The Bilderberg Group, North American Union Edition”. If Mr. Weiss, his associates, and all of his clients would simply read this book or any accurate, current online assessment – and THEN BAN TOGETHER TO STOP THEM, then the U.S. and the world might have a chance, otherwise, the Bilderberg Group wins!
Here’s a brief excerpt (below) from the Wikipedia article on the Bilderberg Group (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group).
There’s no need to comment here on the psychopathology of conspiracy theorists — after all, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you — but it’s interesting that J B seems to be in agreement with Fidel Castro.
Just saying…
“In a 1994 report Right Woos Left, published by the Political Research Associates, investigative journalist Chip Berlet argued that right-wing populist conspiracy theories about the Bilderberg group date back as early as 1964 and can be found in Phyllis Schlafly’s self-published book A Choice, Not an Echo,[35] which promoted a conspiracy theory in which the Republican Party was secretly controlled by elitist intellectuals dominated by members of the Bilderberg group, whose internationalist policies would pave the way for world communism.[36]
“In August 2010, former Cuban president Fidel Castro wrote a controversial article for the Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma in which he cited Daniel Estulin’s 2006 book The Secrets of the Bilderberg Club,[37] which, as quoted by Castro, describes “sinister cliques and the Bilderberg lobbyists” manipulating the public “to install a world government that knows no borders and is not accountable to anyone but its own self”.[33] Proponents of Bilderberg conspiracy theories in the United States include individuals and groups such as the John Birch Society,[34][38] political activist Phyllis Schlafly,[38] writer Jim Tucker,[39] political activist Lyndon LaRouche,[40] radio host Alex Jones,[3][41][42] and politician Jesse Ventura, who made the Bilderberg group a topic of a 2009 episode of his TruTV series Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura.[43] Non-American proponents include Lithuanian writer Daniel Estulin.[44]”
A constitutional convention would be very dangerous. No telling what would result.
w j a
No one not even governments can borrow their way to economiic prosperity, debt at some point has to be paid ,low interest rates all over the world has caused over buying also and spending on items we can,t afford; government spending on services and programs the country cannot afford and burden our children and grandchildren forever: Bankruptcy will happen sooner or later, In other words we have to stop living beyond our means:
What do you think about GRC (global currency reset) ???
.There are three groups of people in the world, those that make it happen (Trump), those that watch it happen (voters) and those that wonder what the hell is happening (Hilary). Take your pick
In the locker room yesterday, one of the guys asked, “Who ya gonna vote for — a charlatan, a socialist, or a crook?” Someone replied, “OK, that covers Trump — what about the other two?”
Seriously, folks, the U.S. economy has problems but it’s still the strongest in the world; that’s why all the corrupt money from overseas finds its way here: there’s no better place to invest, or to put it differently, every other place is worse. I forget which economist described our economy as “the least dirty shirt in the drawer”.
Similarly, there are problems with both major parties. Usually, if an open minded person looks too closely at one of them, they’ll conclude that the other must be better. In the case of the current crop of candidates, I’ll admit I don’t like any of the choices available. Sanders has, in my view, one good point: that there’s too much money in politics — made much worse by Citizens United and super PACs — and as a consequence, legislators have to spend their time fundraising instead of doing their jobs. Trump has tapped into a strain of populist outrage but is a quintessentially dishonest salesman — a charlatan in the style of Elmer Gantry with a following not unlike the fascist leaders in Europe in the 30’s but no understanding whatsoever of history, the Constitution (or for those who care, the Bible), or the workings of government. Clinton, although lacking in charisma and perhaps paranoid about people being out to get her (partly because some really have been), is, at least, intelligent, accomplished, and understands what the responsibilities of office are.
My conclusion is that Hillary is the least-bad choice available; the others are worse, much worse. I’ll put on the least dirty shirt in the drawer.
GPS; you sound like an intelligent person and I appreciate your political opinions even if I disagree. I therefore would like to offer you a challenge:
Please list the “accomplishments” of Hillary that have furthered the interests of the United States. I firmly believe Hillary’s only accomplishments as Sec. of State have been to funnel millions illegally into the Clinton Foundation and to have succeeded at pillaring her husband’s female sex victims. I challenge you to list ANY other positive accomplishments of Hillary that have benefitted the U.S. Prior to her appointment she definitely has a shady past in Arkansas as a lawyer, without doubt. You can easily check this out on line.
Alan, thanks for the acknowledgement.
I’m not a Hillary fan, but it’s easy to find lists of her accomplishments (in response to your echo of a well-known trope usually ascribed to Mrs. Fiorina). Here’s one: http://addictinginfo.org/2015/04/13/heres-a-list-of-hillary-clintons-accomplishments-so-quit-saying-she-doesnt-have-any/.
As far as I know, none of the many, many charges against the Clintons have had any substance (except for the substance found on Ms. Lewinsky’s blue dress). My acquaintances at State tell me that Hillary has done a much better job there than Ms. Rice, but that, admittedly, is faint praise.
My point in all of this is not a huge defense of Hillary or her record; it’s just to point out that the alternatives are worse. Like her or not — and I get that lots of people don’t — she still falls within the range of what might be considered “normal people”. She’s not stellar, but also not a psychopath, not an ignoramus, not a crypto-fascist. The same cannot be said about The Donald.
She has done a reasonably good job as Senator from New York and, IMO, as Secretary of State. (For instance, she negotiated a truce between Israel and Hamas. The invasion of Libya was a mistake, especially in retrospect, but seemed reasonable at the time, given Qaddafi’s explicit threats against the city of Benghazi; and on that topic, a fiasco happened on her watch, but responsibility for the day-to-day operations of each and every consulate belongs somewhere at the Assistant Secretary level; and I won’t dwell on the Republicans’ efforts to starve the State Department and its security budget.)
Somebody will have access to the nuclear launch codes next January. You have to choose between a sane person you don’t like and a crazy person who, according to his mood, wears a red baseball cap, a white baseball cap, or a Napoleon-replica bicorn. Which will it be?
Our founders had it right. The govenor of the state when a senators termis over then nominates the next senator. The worst thing that happened was when we went to a democratically elected senate. At least when a states party gets politically changed then you can be sure so wil the senator unless he has done a good job representing the state rather than other other interests including his own.
China has tried to wreck wall street twice in the last 8 months as if they care about anyone but themselves as they are not team players but single minded. Ask their own people! The best we can do is to make the yuan go down and force their collapse which would bring them to the table to play fair and then back their aggressiveness off for a small long term peace agreement or face economic destruction while it can be prevented and very soon before it is. Our problem is we back them up and they build weapons against us to steal areas that do not belong to them. Let the yuan fall and china have other worries to save face is you save them they will try to top you. For Russia and China you have to give them both something but keep their economy in check to reduce their weapons and aggressiveness. You have to help them, not save them as no one will save you if you help too much or not enough. We give China too much and Russia too little to be safe.
The Donald is absolutely right and I am surprised. We need to give china less and let other countries take over selling us some goods China did in the past as well as sell china goods for the same price we pay, That will redirect their budget to their own services and drain their military aggressive budget or face riots. It is that easy. We bend over to them and they gain too much power. In good faith we should change their economy to make it weaker and agree to help them a little if they cut off the power to north korea and send their military to act like or to invade them , or just take it over, for that we should give them 1/20 of the sea they want with no populated islands and no more than 1/15 of the resources with the promise to pay for 10 years those they stole from 2/3 of what they stole and not take any more for 10 years. Then they pay total cost and everyone wins.
Several comments on term limits here. I agree there must be term limits but to weed out the habitual political criminal there must also be a limit on who can run for a seat and suck the tit of Government.
1) Not allowing anyone that has held any political office in any state or federal government position in the past 2 years (maybe 4 ) to run for Senate or House seats.
2) When their limit is up in the Senate or House they can never run again for a federal position other than for President or VP.
3) Nor may they work in any capacity the involves the federal government or any of its employees after their position is vacated.
4) No funding from corporations or a foreign country in any federal election. That is a big Period!
5) All voting is tightly regulated to American citizens with a voting ID. Application would be a simple request card sent to the State of residence mailed at no cost. Their state will vet each request and supply an ID for voting purposes. No one will be left out unless they do not apply or are denied for legitimate legal reasons. No electronic voting ever (a card with a check mark next to the names) yes it will take a much longer time but it will be accurate and prevent a hacking attack.
This will clean the slate forever, though it will never keep a criminal out. But swift prosecutions would be a deterrent if we could find someone that has the balls and power to do so. Point: There are no prosecutions of the famously criminal in government now so lets be criminals no sweat.
When the government officials get so wrapped up in their own profits they forget the people who put them there and a day of reckoning has come. We the people are fed up to the ceiling with their corrupt handling of our freedom and our economy It is past time for America to wake up and put someone in that is for the people and America. Trump is that someone – term limits for the politicians ALL of them. The people don’t trust government anymore and want a huge change. Out with Obama and in with Trump
Those who condemn Ronald Reagan for overspending during his administration don’t ask enough questions. Reagan held back the spending during his first administration During the second administration the democrats had control of both houses and Reagan had no way of restricting them. They had veto control in each house, and the democrats spent money like there was no tomorrow. A good comparison is Obama’s spending these last 8 years.
The US dollar is strong Vis a Vis other currencies because it has replaced gold. Use of the dollar in the oil trade has created this inverse relationship with this one commodity. The reason that the dollar does not collapse in spite of the liquidity flood is that it is circulating within financial institutions and not reaching the global consumers. This is by design. To think that Trump will cause the dollar to strengthen further is a joke. To think that Chinese economy is in trouble is another joke. It is still growing at 6 % and they should be able to deal with the high debt with ease. If Trump has his chance to upset China’s leaders or others in the BRIC, the dollar bubble will be caused to implode. Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.
The yuan used to be 70 to the dollar. In recent years, the yuan has jumped to 5 for the dollar. China is heavily vested in Africa and gold mines in Antarctica. They are becoming rich off of U.S. exports.