The Fed finally did it.
Market Roundup
After waiting more than nine years, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. That puts the new range at 0.25%-0.50%, versus 0%-0.25% previously. We haven’t seen a rate increase in this country since June 2006.
In the statement explaining its move, the Fed cited a “moderate” economic expansion and strength in housing spending and business fixed investment. It also said “underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably” — Fed-speak for the job market is getting better.
While officials also highlighted relatively low inflation, they said it’s expected to rise in the “medium term” once falling energy and input prices wash through the economy. They also sounded relatively open-ended about what might happen next.
But they did imply that their base case is “gradual increases” in rates. In other words, they didn’t suggest this was a “one and done” increase, nor did they suggest they would ramp up the pace of hikes imminently.
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| The stock market reacted with volatility after the Fed’s decision – first down sharply, then up. |
The Fed also voted to raise the seldom-used discount rate, which is charged on loans directly from the Fed to banks, by 25 points to 1%. And in forecasts released along with the decision, Fed members slightly increased their outlook for GDP growth in 2016 to 2.4% from 2.3%. They also slightly lowered their estimate of the unemployment rate to 4.7% from 4.8%.
After giving the markets time to digest the news, Chairman Janet Yellen stepped up to the podium to share further comments and take reporters’ questions. She said today’s move “marks the end of an extraordinary period,” but that it was warranted because of the “considerable progress that has been made” and that it “reflects the committee’s confidence that the economy will continue to strengthen.”
She went on to mention that the rising dollar and weak foreign economic growth were hurting exports and sectors like energy. But she said those negative forces were being “offset by solid expansion of domestic spending” and said foreign economic risks “appear to have lessened since last summer.” She also characterized the dollar’s rise as “transitory.”
Markets reacted violently, as they typically do. Stocks first sank, then soared, then sank, then surged 224 points on the Dow Industrials. The Treasury yield curve flattened even more, with the two-year yield and five-year yields rising about four basis points, but the 10-year yield rising half as much and the 30-year yield gaining just one point.
Gold and silver finished higher on the day, with the yellow metal up about $10 an ounce. The dollar was roughly flat.
So what does it all mean for markets and you? Well, there will be personal finance impacts on your loans and deposit accounts. I’ll go into more detail in my Friday morning column, so be sure to check that out.
As for the markets, I can’t say for certain what will happen in the next day or two. The immediate aftermath of every single Fed meeting is always volatile, with whipsaw moves in both directions as we’ve just seen.
But as I said yesterday, the real, underlying trends typically reassert themselves once the short-term turmoil ebbs. The biggest of those trends is the turn of the credit cycle. We’ve been highlighting all the ways it has manifested itself in market activity since late spring — from turmoil in emerging markets to plunging commodities to imploding junk bonds to slumping IPO activity to pressure on M&A.
One reporter called Yellen out on that, asking if the Fed helped inflate the junk-bond bubble and whether and how the Fed would respond. And while Yellen acknowledged the turmoil and fund redemption pressures, she downplayed those concerns and claimed we have a “far more resilient” financial system.
In other words, she gave no indication whatsoever that the Fed would respond with more QE, more bailouts, or anything else to quell the selling. Combine that with the fact the credit cycle turn is a long-term trend that isn’t really impacted by the level of the funds rate, or the Fed’s words, and you can see why I doubt today’s news will do much to change the outlook for high-risk bonds.
That leads to my last point — the psychological impact of (in Yellen’s words) the “end of an extraordinary period.”
We’ve had a massive, easy money-fueled rally in almost every asset on the planet since early 2009. This S&P 500 chart tells the tale:
Now, central bankers are no longer pulling in the same direction. Now, many markets like commodities, junk bonds and foreign currencies are seeing increased chaos and turmoil. Now, investors are realizing they have to bike with the training wheels removed.
That’s a big regime shift. It doesn’t mean stocks will plunge every single day, or that you can’t have interim rallies. But with the Fed pushing back on the “one and done” school of thought, you can expect volatility and uncertainty to increase in the run up to EVERY Fed meeting for the foreseeable future.
So I continue to recommend you keep more cash on hand, take profits and cut losses more quickly, and target stocks that are vulnerable in a rising-rate and increased-volatility environment. Also be sure to stay tuned to Money and Markets for all the latest guidance.
That’s my take. Now I want to hear from you. What do you think of the Fed’s decision to hike short-term rates? Was it too long in coming? Or was it the wrong move? What impact in the short- and long-term do you expect the move to have on the stock and bond markets? How about your finances? Definitely take a few minutes to weigh in given this monumental news.
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Many of you weighed in on what you thought the Fed would do before today’s news hit the tape. Now that we know what they did, what kind of impact might the Fed’s decision have?
Reader Bernard said: “I believe the markets have already absorbed this rate-hike news and have discounted its impact. Also, we are just talking about a 0.25% hike.”
But Reader Cliff E. said the hike will have potentially significant impacts on the economy. His take: “The American economy is hollowed out and highly exaggerated. Any little shock will cause the entire debt-based economy to crash with the financial system. Second, any raise in interest will make our debt so huge that we can never repay it. What Bush and Obama did to this nation was to bankrupt us.”
Reader Mike C. said the Fed should have moved a long time ago, and may be dangerously late to the game now. His comments:
“I have believed for some time that rates should have been raised about four years ago, but that choice was not made, most likely for political reasons. The caveats that Yellen has drowned us with are based on the reality that they are late to the game on raising rates, and more importantly, we are tilting violently towards deflation.
“I have a hunch that the rate increase(s) have a better than 50% change of turning the other way. The state of the world economies, and commodity prices, are yelling that so loud that even the Fed can hear.”
Reader Phil said the Fed shouldn’t have even moved today, much less get itself into a position where it’ll have to reverse course before long: “The Fed has been data-based all along. No economic justification for higher rates has existed, despite right-wingers begging for a rate raise and berating the Fed for not doing so.
“Perhaps especially now, there remains little, if any, economic justification. While some old geezers like me will get some more bank interest, the younger people will suffer from deflation and a reduced economy, in part due to rising federal interest payments (more taxes, too). Any rate raise is purely for psychological reasons.”
Lastly, Reader Allitair said: “The hike is a deliberate gimmick, as the Fed will most likely reverse that hike in early 2016. The reason for such a gimmick is that much of the economic ‘improvements’ you hear coming from the U.S. government and the media are deliberate exaggerations to deceive the American people.
“The U.S. economy appears to be improving because the economic situation in much of the rest of the world (E.U. and Japan, for example) is much more decayed than that of the U.S. That’s causing flight capital to rush to the “safe” U.S. — for the time being. But eventually, the rotting/decaying U.S. economy will be exposed for every American to see, feel and experience.”
I appreciate you sharing your Fed opinions. Now that the big event is behind us, what do you think will happen next – in the bond and stock markets, as well as the economy? Let me hear about it online.
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There will be no year-end government shutdown, thanks to a budget package House and Senate legislators agreed to last night. The package proposals will include delays on a medical device tax and a “Cadillac Tax” associated with expensive health care plans, as well as end the four-decade U.S. ban on crude oil exports.
The embattled drug company Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) warned that earnings this year and next won’t meet sales and profit forecasts. Critics have lambasted the firm’s strategy of buying competitors, cutting R&D spending, and jacking up drug prices, as well as its close relationship with a drug distribution firm called Philidor RX Services.
Students in Los Angeles went back to school today, a day after the nation’s second-largest school district (640,000 pupils) was shut down due to a terrorist threat. Turns out New York City received a similar emailed warning, and deemed it a hoax — which is what the FBI said late yesterday the L.A. threat was as well.
The embargoed reviews of Walt Disney Co.’s (DIS) Star Wars hit the Internet early this morning, and they’re largely favorable. Now, Wall Street will wait with bated breath to see if early ticket sales live up to expectations. The firm needs a big win to offset concerns about subscriber loss and cord-cutting impacting its key ESPN properties.
So we’re “saved” – the government won’t shut down. How does that make you feel? What about the news on Valeant and Disney … how will it impact their shares? Any thoughts on the latest terrorist threat, and the revelation it was a hoax? Add your comments to the discussion below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Supercycle Trader is about to release a NEW bundle of recommendations! Click here to activate your membership in the wealth-building service that led members to 13 winners in 14 completed trades last month.
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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Well…all this HYPE about bloody this and bloody that…encouraging everyone to “hunker down” and now what … the market takes off and all who listened to you just got “creamed”. Now what do you have to say?
“It ain’t over ’til it’s over”, as the Yogi said. We need to wait to see what the real effect will be, if any. Give it time to play out.
yellen listens to yogi too. “when you get to the fork in the road, take it.” it’s about time. whew!
Looks like the Supercycle forecast for gold just lost its wheels. We were supposed to have a “big bang” on Tuesday more like a fizzle. Some economists on the “Bizz” shows forecast a 1,000 point drop if rate hike is approved. Go figure. If you want a real government laugh read the Australian labor increase most in 28 years WHAT!! 71,000 jobs economists crystal ball said a drop of 10,000. Government and Big Business “facts” are so distorted today it would be laughable except for the fact that people take them seriously. Its one big 3 ring circus with a parade of clown cars loaded with Fed officials and economists toasting each other. Look out the big boys are setting you up for a big pump and dump on a grand scale. They control the markets stock gold and otherwise. They will decide when to shoot the fat lady.
First of All, why do you send partial stories to our inbox, with a link to the website, in a pathetic attempt to drive traffic. RESTORE FULL STORIES IN THE DAILY EMAIL, OTHERWISE I’M DONE!!!
Secondly, where’s the 500+ point intraday moves that Larry was yelling bloody hell about?!?! Hope he’s not still in the bunker, fearing the world has ended over a quarter point hike. Maybe Martin can check in on him.
I hear Larry’s email is working. And there’s always tomorrow for vol.
We saw some weirdness on Monday and last week, but I guess that didn’t live up to the hype.
EXTREME fear, EXTREME greed…that’s what Weiss, Inc. plays to. No way ’round it if you want Weiss anything. My sense over the years is that Larry finds it all pretty distasteful but holds his nose and plays along with the stupid game in order to keep his job.
Preach, my friend! There is nothing more ridiculous than seeing a partial story, then clicking on the web link for the rest – where you are greeted with the chance to sign up for what you are already subscribed to!
I am seriously considering unsubscribing over this. These folks need to find another way to generate web traffic.
yep the Feds might bring the % rates up to 3 % in the next “few years” … then bring it back to Zero for the next Decade . . . soon will be like Indian Rich and Poor . .
Cheers Salud !
PS by the way did any one notice the social security tax rates went up a few weeks ago?
Nope…directly from the SSA website…same rates, same limits:
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2016.html
the fed dot plots call for 1% per year over the next three years, which is 25 bps four times per year. that would put us on schedule for a recession in 2018 or 2019. which means we’re good to go until then, right?
Why all the worry about junk bonds. THATS WHAT THEY ARE, Anyone buys them takes the risk. It is ridiculous to waste tears on the people that buy them
And besides, junk bond investments only doubled since 2008, from 980 billion to 1,800 billion. So it’s not like everyone’s been piling in.
The FED move is woefully late and several dollars short.. To raise rates when the economy and the credit markets are starting to show great strain is madness. What a tragedy we can’t turn back the clock several years. All we can do now is to batten down the hatches, raise even more cash and use Inverse ETF’s to help reduce the damage because 2016 may well be Very ugly.
Exactly. Rates should have been raised in 2011 at the latest, and there should never have been a QE3.
While the Fed is determined to put a brave face on things, they did this for political reasons — their credibility is at stake, as is the credibility of those highly questionable GDP and jobs numbers of the last three years.
The likelihood of more hikes is low, and I doubt we’ll see another Fed hike before 2017. It’s much more likely we’ll have a recession first.
There are also political and technical limits to how far the Fed can raise rates. The Fed is paying banks interest on excess reserves (politically unpopular), but not removing the excess. Real tightening requires shrinking the Fed balance sheet. Only then will a robust and usable relationship between short rates and reserves be restored. It requires shrinking the balance sheet by about 1/3.
Mike: The Fed has raised rates into weakness, not strength. Since rates are only going up by a quarter of a percentage point, i do not think that it will have a major impact on our economy. As I have said on many occasions, the problems in our economy are structural, not cyclical. This so called recovery is fake! At the beginning of QE, total consumer debt was 13.7 Trillion dollars. As of the first quarter of this year, consumer debt has been reduced by 3% or 400 billion dollars. Business investment is 570 billion dollars, less than what it was in 2001. This proves once again that no Central bank can know how people will spend their money. Our economy has grown by an average of 2.2% since 2009. John Maynard Keynes, ( who I am no fan of), defined a depression as a period of time when a country experiences sub prime growth, with no end in sight. In my humble opinion this is where we are. Mike thank you for everything that you do. Merry Christmas to you and your family. Warmest Regards, Robert Calabro.
True. Corporate earnings and revenue are shrinking, as are margins. That calls the jobs and GDP numbers into serious question, especially for this year. The numbers for 2013 and 2014 have been undergoing major downward revisions as well.
“Bated breath”, not “Baited”. Are we going fishing or trapping?
Aren’t we kind of baited into the economy we let the politicians create?
The economy and the markets will rise if the Fed gets the hell out of the way! I don’t think they are going to do that completely for a while, if ever. I am not very (at all) confident in the powers that be. What can one expect from a bunch of sociopaths?
Tommr, do you actually know what a sociopath is? Google it.
I love to read Larry’s writings & logic and follow him closely, but must admit his extra push on Supercycle has scared me off, too! First it was October 7 when the sky would open and shooting stars begin to fall. Then it was December 15 when “pandemonium” would break out. Nice little Yellen bump, I guess, and I hear the loud “moniums” and “moniacs”, but where is that impish “Pan”? In June 2014 Larry had a similar claim with the observation that Gold and silver had bottomed and were set to boom to $5,000 and $125 per ounce, respectively. IamGold (IMG) was touted as headed up, so I bought a few hundred shares at around CAD $3.80. It did jump up about 10% that summer, but by late October was struggling below $3.00. In December 2015 it has bumped along from $2.20 to $1.90, settling at $1.97 today. That’s in CAD so the US$ damage has been even more painful. I am beginning to think Harry Dent’s demographic deflation thesis has more merit than Larry’s, but perhaps the derivative icebergs below this relatively high S&P market tide will sink all ships afloat. To date, none of the rhetoric of inflation seems valid, despite Yellen’s hints. Oil hit $35.50 again today as gluts grow.
Larry talks gold & silver up, emerging, Japanese & European markets down. Then he keeps claiming it’s happening, or happening soon. If you invest based on his claims, you lose money. Guess who makes money from the suckers who buy his services? Caveat emptor!
You got to quit watching the Harry and Larry show. One is an eternal doomster and the other one has a pie in the sky golden dreams. Confession I enjoy reading both laugh a bit and then go to bed. I just watched a good video on the Comex. The bullion banks controlled by ? are manipulating that as well. I understand there is only 120,000 ounces of REAL gold left there and the “paper gold” is climbing to 325 paper ounces to 1 real ounce. All this pushing down of paper gold is what the government desires. If and when gold ever re-establishes that it is indeed a currency (which governments do not want) government paper money and low rates will collapse and really folks the government is trying to keep up their ponzi scheme and avoid this by every devious means possible. Look at the gold and silver coins flying out the doors of every mint in the world. Its tooo cheap.
Larrys gold bottom and buy recommendation cost me a tidy sum. I have lost trust in his guessing. Harry dent has been spot on so far. Normalcy bias has me afraid of Harry’s predictions but his logic seems more sound than larrys gut level guessing.
Wow, does anybody get it? The Fed raises rate on money it creates out of thin air? and ppl are talking all this bla bla bla!
“out of thin air” well actually on your children’s and unborn children’s shoulders so not
thin air. So how long can they or ? keep increasing the paper output and depress the hard money world?
Now even Isis is involved in the gold as currency.
I like silver bullion from the West mines and dividends along the way.
This hike all beit as significant just the first of many to come. Expect another 1/8 (.125) in nine months. Reaching an entire half percent by the end of the second quarter 2017 “. Pubs take the white house, well then skies the limit. If ya all feel as itll take youre stock investment timing into the toilet…its going happen with or without you, wether it ruins Americas portfolio,, Seriously Doubt It!
No thinking American would trust any politician,or government official any more than you would trust a complete stranger to watch your children.To say the rate hike is going to affect an economy that is over 18 trillion $ in debt is like believing that giving some unfortunate person who lost house ,job & savings in the recession,1 dollar when he/she sits at the freeway on ramp trying to scrape up enough $’s to eat.to even think the Fed can fix the economy is ludicris.
You are totally correct my friend. The US economy is teetering on a very unstable financial platform. The current US economy is based on a giant bubble of corporate and government borrowing, which is based on bonds that are sold to investors at interest rates that are so low, they are not sustainable over the long haul. These government and corporate bonds (loans) cannot be repaid, at whatever interest rate. Once the lenders (bond buyers) realize that these loans (investments) cannot be repaid, the entire corporate and government bond system will collapse. Once this happens, an avalanche in the financial bond system will occur (collapse), and then we will experience a complete “reset” to our financial system. Once this process is complete (takes a several years, and after trillions of $ of wealth is destroyed), then the markets will readjust and humanity can move forward from there. There is a huge financial tsunami coming to the US and the world financial system within the next 1 to 3 years. It is time to prepare your financial lifeboat if you want to survive the forthcoming financial tsunami, and which will be world-wide, and very deep indeed.
You should have stopped after “No thinking American” Therein lies the problem. The masses do not invest in the stock market. They are in a daily struggle to survive forget stocks, bonds, options etc. With super low rates they CANNOT accumulate money to “work” for them in their retirement years. With no pyramid of new workers coming into the system to pay into the system there will be no pension when they retire. Ergo you have a lifetime and limitless amount of slaves to choose from to work for your empire.
The fact is if we didn’t ball out the banks the first time we would not be at the tipping point again instead of giving what ever the number truely is in Qe and gave it to you and me at no interest the economy would be 5 times as strong because us poor folks speend our money and that gives it volousity and that makes things move all the money has gone nowhere it’s still stuck in the bank no movement no economy!!!
In spirit of season I note it feels good to give. Charitable contribution is physiologically the right thing to do, Scrooge, even hence the roadside begger obvious there by choice not virtue. A couple bucks and reminder / to trust in God even printed right there for future referral. I have concluded it is the sole reason my friend and prior neighbor was held at gunpoint by their banking lender and literally forced to sign for maximum affordability. Its the 36 months of non payments on his mortgage he endured during the foreclosure process that I chuckled of as a overgrown man burst into laughter amidst a quiet yet crowded theatre. Or the extended vacation they suffered through immediately following the funding of the traumatic loan experience that they survived at the hands of that evil finamcial institute.
Those in government should be feeling pretty badly then, since they take a whole lot more than they give.
So the markets liked the rate hike – until they have time to think about it, and the half promise of more to come. That might not go down so smoothly. It is a promise of higher costs for money borrowed in mortgages, car loans and otherwise. That won’t do much for the kinds of businesses we need to create prosperity for all. The bankers should love it, though – not to mention others in high finance.
i can remember rates going up when i bought my house, chuck. rising rates were the impetus for me to buy before rates when up again. contrary to what logic tells us, rising rates will push buyers into the housing market, not drive them away. i expect an uptick in housing next spring.
There’d better be an uptick. There are lots of houses on the market, and even more building permits.
Actually, Chuck, housing inventory is very thin in most markets.
housing inventories are low, especially for new homes. we’re at full employment, chuck. expect demand for everything to gradually increase over the next few years. we’ve finally turned the corner.
You can be guaranteed the bankers will get more interest us poor slobs in my case retired will not share we will see nothing. Every time I access my online account that holds the money that I worked so hard for I see that the interest rate they are paying me has dropped again. So young people spend and enjoy don’t save there is no future in it. Besides this is what Big Brother wants you to do and if you do not have enough your friendly neighborhood banker will give you more. Happy days are here again.
The Fed has finally raised the interest rate by the bare minimum. Tells me the Fed doesn’t quite believe their own statements or those of the politicians. I however think only those loans with rock bottom interest rates will see much of a change, like the auto promo loans with zero or below 2 percent loans will see much of a change.. The promo loans may be unaffected as companies vey for business. But I could be wrong, time will tell. I also wonder how much the market has been affected by the rate jitters before every Fed meeting? Of course now leveraged buyouts are now more more expensive. But then the junk bond market had already gotten its tummy ache. Then Congress is on its way of okaying more work visas in areas that already suffer from higher unemployment. Does anybody actually have a clue as to what they are doing?
When I was young we called it “clutching at straws”
Bloody Wednesday finally arrived and the market tanked, just as Mike has predicted for the past 2 years.
Oh wait, equities popped 1+%.
Mike, no offense, but you’ve been urging people to “take profits and cut losses” for months and years on end. If folks would have taken this advice, they would be far behind those who have simply “bought and held.” Yes, there is a time to take profits off the table, but trying to time the market is a fool’s game. My advice? Buy high quality stocks — better yet, index funds — and don’t worry about the day-to-day happenings in the world. You’ll have a fatter portfolio in the end.
good advice, tom. i have an investment account that follows your advice, and a trading account that times the market. guess which one is doing better? the investment account is, and by a long shot. one thing i’d add is beware of leveraged etfs.
btw, my trading account now follows my investment account.
It makes absolutely NO sense to me that large institutional investors or private individuals would wait until an official pronouncement from on high was made formalizing a rate hike before hedging bets or divesting themselves of certain asset classes. After all, all of this had been forecast for at least a year and a half after Janet Yellen was sworn in as Ben Bernanke’s replacement in 2013..SHE SAID SO!!!. With that in mind, no one with their own profitability at stake (or in the case of a brokerage house, that of their clients’) could possibly be so stupid or reckless as to put their money at risk by playing a high-stakes game of chicken with a drop dead date for an announcement from the Fed regarding a rate hike. So why on earth would would the exchanges evince such violent swings since this news has had a chance to “bake in” over such a long time? This isn’t news…No one can tell me that the Fed’s decision to raise rates is the sole cause of a significant market drop–one that EVERYBODY (including this publication) predicted would be one sure consequence of a rate hike. In any case, “fears of a rate hike” were always cited in the aftermath of a 200 point drop in the DOW all year long. So how come the market JUMPED by that amount once the fat lady sang today??
I’d bet a year’s salary that other factors (like high speed and insider trading) are the real underlying causes of the violent swings we’ve seen in stock market prices in 2015 and figure to see in the days and weeks ahead…But you guys don’t have the onions to acknowledge it….
Clifford
Yellen and Draghi do a lot of telegraphing to investors when making moves. If you think the markets are honest and above board think again. Your just the fertilizer and the seed somebody else is doing the harvesting.
Speaking of onions, this brings me to California, produce capital of the country. They are out of water and aren’t going to get any, El Niño or no El Niño. Yes we have global warming in the Arctic, but it has nothing to do with human activity. The author of the Milancovitch Cycle predicted all of this in 1922. Check it out. This could profoundly affect our markets in ways we never dreamed of. Jim
Larry needs to stop giving those dates. Makes him look bad. Real bad.
Looks like we are rallying for a while.
My DOW chart says another 600 points is…..POSSIBLE…after a little pullback.
Fred, you sound a lot like Larry, LOL.
I find it incongruous that that the Fed claims their direction is based on economic considerations derived from current data, whilst indicating what may be expected in the future. This indicates to me that they are trying to paint a rosey picture for liberal political reasons; and this could paint themselves into another corner.
It strikes me that there is so little consideration given to the effect on repayment of foreign debts resulting from dollar strengthening should the Fed actually proceed with further rate increases. What every American needs to understand is that the prick of the US debt bubble could come from a long needle reaching from outside. There is no way that I should expect interest rates to march upwards to cool an overheated American economy because the US economy is not isolated. Manufacture would have to be repratriated and exports could not be relied on to help (i.e. Boeings will be more expensive than Air Bus airplanes due to strong dollar). Other countries will not raise their rates as to do so would hurt their exports, which they depend on far more than the US does; but their weak currencies will exasperate any debt repayments based on a strong dollar. In short, I do not see or expect a strong US economy and expect any stronger dollar would prick the world’s debt bubble that resulted from low interest rates.
Happy Holidays,
Will
In this artificial market, “who knows”, but a down day tomorrow wouldn’t be a surprise.
Mule
So an up day, or a flat day wouldn’t be a surprise either, right? You’re quite a prognosticator!
Next move Qe 4?
next move will be tightening, not easing. the fed is done with easing until we have a recession. at that time rates will be lowered in lieu of qe4. no need for qe ever again.
Saw an interesting analyst take on gold. He said when physical gold is sold by gold backed Funds, ETFs, and such in the West, it goes somewhere. That somewhere is China, India and other Asian countries, the Middle East and Russia, where it is appreciated. He thinks a demand will slowly build up in the West, though, and it will be like a dam that eventually bursts. It occurred to me to wonder, though, what if the dam gives way, and there is no water (demand) behind it, because Westerners have simply gotten used to fiat money with no material basis. It will mean nothing, and those nations will simply be sitting on a lot of pretty metal, and no one else will care. The West will have the money, even if it, also, has no physical value. I’m getting a headache trying to think what that could mean for mankind. Barter economy, anyone?
You are a bond and interest rate expert. What say you on the best bond funds/ETF’S for current market conditions? Thanks.
Putin may have just killed Trumps chances, by announcing he would like to see the Donald as President. LOL!
Fascinating stuff. Trouble is this side of the pond on LSE don’t think we have such aggressive shorts, though its pretty warm for Christmas approaching. SEU3 may work currency here, any better? Trump favours natural meds, medical freedom including cannabis (the oil is anticancer agent that works that pharma are scared of), He wants America great again and unlike any politician if it stinks he tells you what it is and forget political correctness. Suspect Putin et al might be a little more worried about him if he made it than Obama. Your own Mike Adams at naturalnews.com has some wise info for the approaching celebrations. Merry Christmas bruvs
Hey Larry, For years I have followed you , esp. in gold. I subscribed to your last Supercycle thingy, but after weeks of losing money I got disgusted and asked for a refund. Where am I going wrong? Now, I’m losing money because the stock market is going down. Ugh