Darn the torpedoes … or the evidence. It’s full speed ahead for policymakers in Europe!
Market Roundup
The latest inflation figures from the Continent show consumer prices dropped 0.2% in February. That was the most deeply negative reading since September, and far worse than the flat reading economists expected.
Even if you strip out food and energy, you get a core inflation reading of just 0.7%. That was down from 1% a month earlier, and the weakest since April 2015.
That clearly confirms the utter failure of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) actions to date. Inflation hasn’t reached the bank’s 2% target for three full years. So what are policymakers going to do when they meet next on March 10? More of the same!
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| The ECB’s actions to date have brought little success. |
The top minds on Wall Street, and in Europe’s financial capitals, now expect the ECB to add another 20 billion euros a month to its 60 billion-per-month QE program. It may also cut its deposit rate further into negative territory, perhaps as much as 20 basis points from the current negative-0.3%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional monetary policy “spaghetti” to get thrown against the wall, such as a change in the mix of assets the ECB can buy.
The funny thing is, policymakers from all over Europe and the U.S. just admitted in Shanghai that monetary policy is no longer working. They said negative interest rates in particular are actually making things worse. For its part, the G-20 statement released on Saturday included platitudes about avoiding currency devaluation and about enacting fiscal stimulus. But it contained no indication whatsoever of massive deficit-funded, concrete spending measures.
Yet the ECB seems poised to press on anyway. And it’s doing so at a time where our own data here in the U.S. isn’t very inspiring. An index that tracks pending sales of existing homes dropped a worse-than-expected 2.5% in January. That was the biggest decline since December 2013.
| “Yet the ECB seems poised to press on anyway.” |
The Chicago PMI index of regional manufacturing activity also tanked to 47.6 in February from 55.6 in January. That missed the 52 estimate by a mile. A sub-index that tracks hiring dropped to its lowest level since November 2009.
Bottom line: I’d love to be more positive here. But the U.S. economic data is lackluster. The European deflation monster is getting more ferocious by the day. And the policy measures that will supposedly help “fix” them are failing miserably. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for big stock market gains to me.
So what do you think? What will the ECB do in a few days, and what impact will it have (if any) on stocks? Do you think the U.S. economy is going to weaken from here? If so, will that weakness be led by housing? Manufacturing? Some other sector or group of stocks? Let me know what you’re thinking below.
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What, if anything, can or should be done to revive global growth? That was the subject of several of your posts Friday and over the weekend.
Reader Thomas D.J. said a slowdown is already baked in the cake, regardless of what policymakers do. His take: “Inventories are increasing. So just when business should be starting to fill shelves with new products, there will be no shelves to put them on. Prices will crash in the next quarter.”
Reader Paranumre shared a similar view: “You ask: ‘What CAN they do to fight this slowdown?’ ” Nothing that will be effective. But you can bet they will continue to do more that is destructive.”
Reader Frebon suggested a few approaches that might work better, saying: “There is something they can do, but it doesn’t take economic principals into account — just good old common sense. The Fed should raise rates and put money into the hands of the middle-class who will actually spend it. Nothing they have done for eight years has increased demand. It has only served to finance stock buybacks and overseas investments.
“Give a one-time tax break of 10% to only foreign-held money and bring those trillions back here. Trillions more will come as money seeks higher returns and the Saudis, the Chinese, and the Japanese will be forced to liquidate their reserve currencies.”
Reader Gregory H. also said monetary policy is failing, and that other measures are required. His take: “Easy money won’t have much influence over the direction the U.S. economy heads. That should be obvious after 8+ years of interest rates hovering around zero and the result being tepid, lackluster GDP growth.
“Ignoring non-U.S. economies for a moment, what would spark U.S. GDP growth are a reduction in regulations, an easing of costs associated with hiring new employees, and creating an atmosphere of potential profitability that would encourage business owners, and potential owners, to invest in new businesses and/or grow their existing business. Existing tax rates are simply too high and discourage risk taking, while rules and regulations make the cost of doing business exceedingly uncertain.”
Reader Jim W. added: “There is nothing the G-20, the central banks, or any government can do that can fix the economy. After every downturn we never try to fix the real problems. Rather, we try to fix the symptoms with low interest rates and liquidity. This just makes things worse and creates even more bubbles, so that the next economic downturn is much worse than the last one.”
Bottom line: Many of you think monetary policy is useless at this point, and fiscal policy is probably not going to be all that effective either. A better approach would be to make it cheaper to run or start a business, and to find ways to bring offshore funds back here to the U.S.
Whether that sounds about right to you … or not … I’d love to hear from you here at the Money and Markets website. So add your comments when you have time.
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Speaking of central banks, the People’s Bank of China cut the bank reserve requirement by another 0.5 percentage points, or 50 basis points, overnight. The move takes effect tomorrow, and it will theoretically free up a bit more room for Chinese banks to lend.
Trading firms and energy companies have long stored excess oil in offshore tankers or in tanker farms on land. Now that many of those storage places are almost topped off, some firms are looking at “rolling storage” – using excess oil railcars to store excess oil in, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Finally, the 88th Academy Awards show in Hollywood last night resulted in a Best Picture victory for “Spotlight.” The Best Actor award went to Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Revenant,” whose director Alejandro Inarritu took home the Oscar for Best Director. Brie Larson won Best Actress for her performance in the movie “Room.”
Will a fresh round of deflationary data from Europe result in even more of the same monetary medicine that hasn’t worked to date? Will China’s reserve-ratio cut help the economy there? Any thoughts on using railcars to store extra oil, or on this year’s slate of Oscar winners? Hit up the comment section below and share them when you have a minute.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
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Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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The S&P500 tried again today to make it over the 1950 level, but failed. Moreover, it ended down for the day….on a day that oil was UP a little over $1.00 per barrel. The two have been trading in tandem recently…..
Mike, or any of you readers, do you think this is significant?
It’s a de-coupling, I think, of oil and the markets. Heard some commentaries that “that’s how it’s moving, but will de-couple soon! Then the markets will take off again! LOL Got my ‘risky’ funds (won’t change my lifestyle) into Inverse ETF’s on the Dow and S&P.
Tex
Nothing to worry about though….Hillary says America is ALREADY great, and she’s planning to make it even greater!!
So, we have that to look forward to……… LOL
Aloha Bonnie,
Yes this is very significant, It is the very first time for long a long time since Larry has been saying Markets down and Oil up. We needed this separation from Oil and The Markets to be on the winning trades for a while now. Now if Gold and Silver, and Miners can link itself w/ the Markets going down. We will be on the perfect path for Larry’s Super Cycles.
So Mike –
What do you think????? Enough of the equivocations!! Where are we going financially??
I pay for your guidance, not for the opinions of others. WHERE ARE WE GOING???
Where are we going? I hope you have a handbasket. Enjoy the ride down.
Great answer Chuck.
I’m told I can legally retire at the age of 59 (3 more years) and get full benefits because I am on disability. My retirement is in Kansas (KPERS). I am VERY concerned about leaving it there in times like these….if things keep going the way they are going, retirement funds and banks don’t appear to be safe. Yet if I pull my retirement early, I will lose a great deal of benefits. How do I know WHEN???
This is all my opinion but……..
I would really study the economic condition of your state, Kansas, before doing that. It has been ranked relatively low on the basis of debt per capita at #39 ($2,406). Mass is #1 at $11,309 and TN is the lowest (#50) with only $925/capita. These numbers are about 5 years old. Growth is on the low side. All this stated, you need to really evaluate the KS state condition. If you were in Illinois, I would probably have a different opinion.
Bottom line: I would not dump that pension unless you are a great investor with a lot of knowledge. If you decide to do it anyhow….you might look at putting a large chunk into 4 of the strongest life insurance companies in the country…..for lifetime annuity payments.
Annuities are expensive and a bad way to go….IE future inflation against a fixed annuity!
Leave your money where it is. No matter what, it will be worse if you take it early. I made that mistake a long time ago, and I really regret doing it!
Europe’s real problem is demographics. There aren’t enough kids born today and that’s going to hurt economic growth.
Dear Denise
I think couples are getting smarter. They want a decent life for themselves and not spend it all on raising “kids” Being a parent I will state that kids are a lifetime obligation there is no real leaving the nest there is always a connection. The government of course thinks otherwise have kids spend spend on them all the way from diapers to university. Here in Thailand kids are a real asset they care for their parents sending money home its directly opposite of Western culture. In the West children patiently wait for parents to pass on so they can inherit their money if they are lucky enough to have any.
When your death rate exceeds your birth rate you have a one way ticket to Darwin’s Basement. Jim
HOW TRUE!!!!,WILLIAM
Gordon I completely agree. We recently visited Italy on an extended vacation, and Belgium my wife’s home country, I’m originally a Brit; were struck by the number of families where several generations were living together and everyone seemed happy. In Italy we rented for two weeks from a family that lived outside of Terne in Umbria and there were three generations living together. The Europeans may have problems but I get the impression they may be better able to deal with them. For example despite the mess that is supposedly Italy’s economy we only met and saw happy helpful people, no road rage, no school shootings, and we were there for over two months and visted four areas driving over 5,000 miles.
Housing is about the only thing the little guy understands so if he has some extra money, that’s where it goes. Problem—–pushes prices up, maybe not a bubble but not a good investment for these times.
very true and what do you think is going to happen to China’s “growth” as they have had a one child per couple policy in place for 20+ years now that they just revoked. Another 20 years or so and watch that country constrict
The ECB and for that matter, the Fed somehow feel compelled to make change. In the business world, “do nothing” is a decision, so perhaps the ECB and the Fed should consider “doing nothing” and allowing the markets to move in and of themselves for a change. If anything, a tax cut for manufacturers who have lost business to China may stimulate real employment, therefore allowing the consumer to lead us out of this down market and yes, when that occurs, the housing sector should also improve.
You can go ahead and cut taxes, which amounts to increased deficit spending by the government (less money coming in, same amount going out = same amount coming in, more spending out). The problem is that any increased U.S. manufacturing employment will be offset by higher consequent prices for the goods made, as there’s no way American manufacturers can pay the low wages they do abroad. So $300 suits from China will cost $2000 when made here. Likely outcome is our manufacturers will be unable to compete, even with some tax breaks. And there won’t be enough new employees to offset the higher costs. And if you impose high tariffs (so the $300 Chinese suit will cost $2000), people will buy fewer suits.
The economy has been propped up by the feds zirp, and held back by the A.C.A. The downturn in oil and natural gas, has anyone checked the price of natural gas, has had a big impact on confidence, spending and the housing market. In 1986 Oil prices collapsed, and in 1987 the stock market crashed. I feel oil has bottomed, but natural gas hasn’t and the impact of low natural gas pricing will be the next shoe to fall in the energy sector. The fed will start to raise rates, which will be negative for the equity market, and impact consumer confidence.
Oil storage has topped off. The rail car builders are turning out new tank cars even as oil production in the US is off. Will those be used for storage? And what happens if the cars are full and oil activity picks up, how will it be moved? With all the foot dragging and hand wringing over pipelines, those tank cas are America’s pipeline on wheels to echo the Kaiser War ads of General American Tank lines. And I have to wonder what would happen if the Central Banks did nothing, simply sat on their hands for the next quarter. I also saw something I would never see. Over the weekend the Uncle Pete moved a long loaded coal train through or into Oakland California, after dark. Is coal finally on the move?
Gloomy stuff from you, Mr. Larson. I go to InvestorPlace and read Anthony Mirhaydari, who starts out a piece on Mining & Material stocks that could gain thusly: Consider U.S. durable goods orders up 4.9% in Jan, strongest since March last yr. Real personal income, real consumption rose to fresh record highs. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow real-time tracking est. shows gain of 2.1% current quarter, up from previous quarter’s upwardly revised gain of 1.0%. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, one of [his] favorite indicators, in midst of nice recovery rising form a low of -55.7 in early Feb to -21.4 on Fri. GEEZ. So which is it? Your view or his view? Bewildering.
one can argue the positive or negative statistics to support their argument, it all depends upon your perspective. I for one see a lot more negative than positive so I’m looking for a major correction. You need to look back into corporate earnings and slower growth and that says it all.
In the first year of a bear market, it is normal to find a mixture of bullish and bearish views. If you wait for everyone to agree that it is a bear market, then (a) you will already have suffered most of the losses that are likely to affect your portfolio, (b) you will be rushing into cash and/or deciding to go short just in time for the new bull market. Having lived through several bull/bear cycles, it is just amazing to see the majority of investors final becoming bullish just before the top, and bearish just before the bottom. Over and over and over again. That’s what’s bewildering.
While the criminals and cronies who control the current banking systems, and government policies are in power, nothing good is going to come of it, and so the projections that you see, based on the status quo will follow like dominoes. They have to be removed from their positions of influence, sweeping reforms have to be made, transparency and accountability have to be cemented into place before anything else changes. If these policy makers keep doing the same thing, and expect something different to happen, well its going to bring it all down. Fresher minds must prevail.
Sorry Randall. Not gonna happen. There thieves have been controlling American politicians and economics since the beginning. There is no solution . The few smart politicians don’t even discuss this and the rest are too dumb or disinterested to care. Just like the Typical American voters that elect these brain deficient slogs, they are totally uneducated regarding world politics and economies. They graduate from high school not knowing how to balance a checkbook and in college they learn the difference between a nickel bag and a dime bag, and wonder why employers will not hire them.
A good read Charlie. People have to be aware of world politics not just what is growing in the back yard. We are after all a global village.
The reproduction of the population, in the United States and other western countries, isn’t keeping up with the dying off of the boomers, so fewer buyers for any and all things means smaller markets for everything. So businesses planning on the market growing will have to adjust or go bankrupt if they borrowed to grow their business.
Somehow we were convinced that the world was overpopulated and so started many practices that will not provide the population growth to support expanding markets and businesses.
tom
Wait till the robots come into play. Then the world will be truly be overpopulated with people that have no jobs. I constantly laugh when one of these nerds comes on TV and state how wonderful things will be after robots come onto the scene. Kind of reminds me of what the political shills stated after the signing of NAFTA. We are still waiting for the high value jobs that fiasco was to produce. Big business made out like a bandit on NAFTA and their next big score is the TPP. Wake up folks somewhere sometime there has to be a culling of the human herd.
That’s why we have wolves and other large predators. Jim
“Wake up folks somewhere sometime there has to be a culling of the human herd.”
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I do not see that Gordon. Human desires beyond necessities (food, shelter ) are endless, therefore business opportunities are endless. (In a free market)
The world’s standard of living has risen due to efficiency improvements Yes, science and technology, abundant energy and property rights and a limited version of free enterprise have done amazing things for the standard of living. Technology improvements change things, shake up things for a time, but overall they improve living standards. With robotics come many opportunities, both in that field and in developed nations to compete more in manufacturing, (no robot unions, no wage or pensions competing against 3rd world labor)
No, IMV the underlying cause of poverty, pain, and suffering are not technology improvements, but the dark side of human nature, greed, anger, laziness, hate, lust for power over others, which manifest in every culture or system, be it government, business, religious, or political. (It was the intent of the founding of the US to limit these destructive forces. G.W stated that the US system could only work in a moral nation. I would add that no system can work in a greedy, power lusting population)
Populations in healthy developed cultures naturally reduce population growth to a non issue as is happening throughout the world.
There is no energy crisis… https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/20/there-is-no-energy-shortage/
There is no shortage of stuff… https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/there-is-no-shortage-of-stuff/
There is no need for a food shortage… https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/grains-and-why-food-will-stay-plentiful/
People are not the problem, although their bad behavior often is.
Well said. Also, when robots take over, just about everybody will have an IT job.
Wanna see growth…????? Get rid of the GD Dems/Progs and do a 180 turn with tax relief for everyone! Tax the freebees a 5% so they can feel the bite too………for a change!
Get dead people off of SocSec , and shorten the careers of all pols and judges with term limits! But who am I kidding? Our system is so bloated with superfluous programs, hapless bureaucrats, and corruption “evah ware” that the “Ship of State” is going down just like a merchant ship in the Atlantic in 1942,,,,just like it has been planned!; which is a sad refrain for all patriots alive and dead. One more thing my pea sized brain just recalled, check out the pensions and the payouts of any college / university in the US a be prepared for a shock, as payouts are in the MILLIONS. The pc dorks that teach (?) garner the easy money of taxpayers while brain washing the kids. Oh yeah, Jimmy Carter created the Dept of Education. Bedtime for me now.
If you read the book “Dark Money” you may change your ideas.
There are very wealthy extremists on both sides of the political spectrum, like the
Kochs and Soros. Perhaps we should revisit Citizens United. Jim
Sorry Johnny. Not about to happen. When 40-50% of the population are on some kind of government welfare and when men impregnate women and leave them and their children with no liability or consequences and the government continues to subsidize and promote these lifestyles by paying more to support these mothers and children, you cannot expect them to vote for any individual or party that would take anything away from them.
The Democrats, the Jessie Jacksons, and Sharptons have succeeded in developing this welfare dependent group in our society in order to have them to remain dependent on the government and in effect creating another form of slavery.
All of you right wing extremist and minority bashers need to admit THERE ARE MANY MORE POOR WHITE PEOPLE ON GOVERNMENT RELIEF AND FOOD STAMPS THAN ANYONE ELSE
Your right wing cronies only look out for themselves not small time extremists like the ones who read this column and spew their vitriol.
No party is better then the other they both stink
HOW TRUE!!!!,WILLIAM,NO ONE IS WILLING TO TIGHTEN UP THE BELT,ALL ACROSS THIS AREA TOWNS AND GOVERNMENTS ARE STILL SPENDING AND GATHERING DEBT LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW,TAXES ON WORTHLESS DOLLARS IS THEIR WAY OUT .SO IT IS.WILLIAM
More wars more false flags more Bail outs more taxes , and I hope the Luciferians & their puppets Don’t ” Check Out ” Trump before his time … We will b Flat mostly & let’s pray that the Evil Witch won’t win or get posted as a Supreme Court Justice…
I couldn’t agree more completely Johnny! Johannes
I know that deflation in the long run is bad, but middle class Americans haven’t had a pay raise in years, and the thought of lower prices would be welcome. Could it be possible that these people will spend money to catch up on buying things they haven’t afforded for some time, and it might affect the economy positively? I’m not an economist, but I’ve seen
friends and family getting home improvements and buying things lately…..
books
Home improvements is good. Buying more IT crap that they don’t need is bad. People seem to constantly have their face pressed up against store windows desiring something they do not need. What amazes me is that if things are so bad why are some many people travelling today? Fly today pay tomorrow.
Finally – Leonardo gets an Oscar. He’s probably the best actor around today and deserved the award. Of course this thought will not help you in the market, but it offers some change-up from pure investing commentary.
With the stock market being a casino for the filthy rich I stay away form it. Soon cash will be king again, banks will close off access to accounts and atm’s will close. Unless we have a big war there is little hope anything will change. Congress needs to dissolve the fed and take back it’s responsibility just like immigration! This next crash will be one for the books so do whatever you think is best
These are about as gloomy a bunch of comments as I’ve seen yet. Anywhere. If they really reflect the mood of the nation, we are in BIG trouble. I recall when Japanese and Germans were running rampant over the Pacific and Europe, and things looked really dark, Bob Hope, Jack Benny, Fibber McGee, Spike Jones and others kept us seeing the joke, and knowing things would turn out okay. Now we have Hilary, Bennie, Ted, Donald, Marco and the like. ‘Taint funny, people.
Whoops! Bernie.
Gonna be one hell of an election day, when we all stay home.
On a lighter note, I read that U.S. productivity isn’t nearly as bad as it has been portrayed. It argued that these numbers are distorted by the large number of fictitious employees that go in to determining the unemployment rate. The folks that are working are more productive than ever. Jim
Yes, but so many are not working…
Prime working age employment is still 3 million below 2007 levels, and slightly below January 2000 levels…
http://mishtalk.com/2016/02/05/core-employment-age-25-54-still-below-january-2000-level-3-million-below-2007/
• Core employment age 25 to 54, first surpassed the level we are at today in January of 2000, 16 years ago.
• Core employment hit a peak in January 2007 at 100.716 million.
• Today, core employment is 3,133,000 below January 2007.
• Today, core employment is 796,000 below the level 16 years ago.
• Today, core population is 5,284,000 above the level 16 years ago
SUMMARY…
Three million less employed in the core age group, and five million more people in that age group!
Just as Merkel has discovered that there is unlimited desire for free hosing, food and money, the US is learning the same. Big myopic government creates co-dependency and rewards the dark side of human nature.
David A,
Got any idea what happened just before 2000? The Republican Majority removed the financial Regulation called The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which had regulated our financial markets since the Pecora Hearings made clear what had caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929…..
Many Financial Managers who witnessed the Crash of 1929 told CNBC that they were leaving the stock markets…
That brought the sell of of 2000. By 2002, the same highly risky trading brought a sea of fraudulent liquidity and the markets rallied until 2007 when they exploded for the same reasons that they exploded in 1929….
During the interim we also got the Republican written and passed trade bill called NAFTA….That sent millions of Middle Class jobs to Mexico….
Eagle, first of all Bush formally warned about the loans being made on numerous occasions. Clinton, via Janet Reno sued the banks more then ten times, prodding them to make such insane loans, and play the fed game. Fannie and Freddie led the way in leveraging and bundling mortgages, and the big banks, under government Clinton admin pressure, followed suit. The senate finance committee was 100 percent democrat controlled, and they said all was fine, hunky-dory, nothing to worry about. Obama actually participated in a red-lining law suit against the banks. The entire mortgage crisis was government led all the way. Yes some republicans pushed the G.S. repeal, as did some democrats. Clinton signed it and still defends that signature.
here we go again with Eagle495 more liberal B/S why cant you just tell the truth instead of lying oh by the way Eagle495 uses many names here such as Heidi Mike S. and my name at times he also uses others because he likes to distort the truth and tell lies what he hates to tell everyone…………. BILL CLINTON signed it eagle495 opinion Is that he was forced into it by republicans another thing he doesn’t mention is bill Clinton pushed NAFTA through and signed it along with over 240 democrats and the person that killed the markets was Clinton and greenspan I remember them saying there was to much artificial money being made so they started raising interest rates and that killed the market and the economy and if these money managers were around in 1929 lets say they were 30 yrs old back then they would have been 100 around 2000 so your B/S is B/S
Unfortunately you are right. Bill Clinton pushed and signed NAFTA. He ran as a Democrat and governed as a Republican. You don’t get to be governor of Arkansas by being a flaming liberal.
Eagle495 wasn’t Clinton president when NAFTA passed. I guess everything bad is Republican and Everything good is Democrat according to your thought process. It gets tiring.
you right, jim. the experts are ignoring the uptick in ism, employment, and auto sales. low rates, cheap gas and growing work force is just now beginning to take effect. this will continue.
The problem with the EU is: ONCE A FOOL, ALWAYS A FOOL.
Since Europe’s economic policies are clearly not working I expect them to double down on what they are doing. That’s how liberals operate.
But Mike, it could have been so much worse! Jim
I have been following, what is left of our once great Country for several decades and have watched it “Go Down The Drain”. It all started in the late 1700’s in Western Europe when certain hIgh-ranking influential men started questioning the many wars that were going on throughout the Continent killing off the “flower of these Country’s youth in battle”. These wars continued on and on throughout the next 150 years, with improvements in weapons, resulting in more battle killed and badly wounded soldiers and civilians. Somewhere along the line, groups like The New World Order came into being along with other organizations with the same thoughts, HOW DO WE STOP ALL THESE WARS The World MUST have a Major Government to control all these countries.
Flash ahead to about 15 years ago. Certain Rogue Groups had been watching the USA grow into the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world while many other countries were ending up third or fourth world status. Some of these hidden Groups combined forces and realized that now was the time in History, after closely observing the USA over the years by using the approach “THE CONTINUAL DUMBING DOWN OF THE AMERICAN VOTING PUBLIC”. These Groups agreed that this was the perfect time in this last General Presidential Election to covertly, silently, “slip in a hidden radical government” banking on the stupidity of the American Public and in perhaps in two administrative terms, quietly take over the total control of the USA administratively, militarily, and financially and then “fold them into the United Nations so the UN could have “Care, Custody and Control of the USA” and turn it into a Slave State so the powers-to-be can swindle all their wealth and riches and “pass it on to their “Friends”…WAKE UP you ding-a-lings, We Americans are one vote away from Slavery.
Get therapy
Stop smoking, swallowing and shooting whatever you are on
Where is the evidence of your drug inspired thesis
You are already a slave to your own disillusioned misconceptions
Please snap back to reality!!!
Robert, who will you vote for? Trump? If so, you are contradicting yourself.
In observing nature I have seen that ALL resources are freely available and that nature does not need man to have money to yield those resources for use, the only requirement is his time and effort. In this viewpoint I cannot understand why a concept such as poverty or economic downturns exist for money is merely an illusion. To be underpinned by money is the downfall of mankind no matter the generation, specific time in history or economic environment.
What we’re seeing is a wrestling of power from the moneyed (capital), back into the hands of the people (production).
Where are you seeing this?
I love your reports and comments , particularly your flow of the language!. But, alas, your forecasts are not functioning. The yo-yo trend of the markets is not helping the bears who have taken a view from your bearish expectations. The ETFs suggested by you like SH
and others are getting to be risky. S & P 500 after touching 1810 surprised the bears
to have reached 1960/70 level which again is not in consonance with either the technicals or fundamentals. In short, confusion exists!.
Mike, everything is going almost EXACTLY as I thought it would regarding the economy,money/banking/financially, the capital markets, and geo-politically speaking. NEVER in the history of mankind have we had the amount of DEBT, DERIVATIVES, FIAT PAPER MONEY WORTH LESS AND COMBINED WITH THE WORST DEFLATION SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION ALL,ALL,ALL due to a KEYNESIAN MONEY AND BANKING SYSTEM THAT IS OUT OF CONTROL. ALL TOTALLY PREDICTABLE
VERY TRUE!tHE GOOD BOOK SAYS THE RICH FARMER SHOULD HARVEST THE FIELDS BUT,BUT LEAVE ENOUGH BEHIND FOR THE POOR AND THAT IS NOT HAPPENING ANY MORE..wILLIAM
In the last few weeks I have re-watched two of my favourite movies, ‘Les Miserables’ and ‘Doctor Zhivago’, what struck me was the way our society seems to be coming to the same point as the “masses” in France and Russia before their revolutions. The Elites living the high life while the people basically barely get by. Also, yesterday read an newsletter by Peter Schiff that pointed out how earlier generations in the U.S. waited patiently and quietly in the food lines during the Great Depression, today we see rioting and looting after our team wins a World Series, and what about New Orleans after Katrina. I hope we have the strength of character to get through want appears to be coming but the evidence isn’t good; too many people feel they are owed something.
I would point out that if FDR had not been elected, there would have been a Revolution and the very first people marched before the firing squad, would have been those of the 3% ( and their mouthpieces) who were calling FDR a “Communist”…… Bring that forward 84 years and the grandchildren of those 3% (and their mouthpieces) are basically saying the same thing about Obama…..
We let the Jackals back into government in 1981 and the results have been the same as in the 1920’s…… Now history is simply repeating…. The bottom was brought in 1932 and it worked. More currently, the bottom was brought in 2009 and it is working again, despite the cries of the 3% (and their mouthpieces)…..
Good one. Obama is a better President than it seems people think. See below.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Obama’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove (see trends).
The latest figures include 25% who Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
out of all the events that happened last month, my favorite is the oil freeze. the saudis have been pumping full tilt. they’re still pumping full tilt. so agreeing to freeze at full-tilt pumping is such a relief? i guess the next move will be to announce production quotas – at full-tilt pumping?
looks to me the only solution to too much oil it to increase demand. we all need to buy gas hogs and start driving more.
Buy a Ferrari or a Lambo.
I have noticed that long term tax exempt municipals (duration 16 yrs) do not appear to decline with rising interest rates. Maybe the rates have not increased enough to cause a decline? What is your analysis?
It would be nice if low inflation was the result of increased productivity accompanied by an increase in real wages but that is not the case. This time low inflation is the result of stagnation and that is not good. All the tinkering will not cure the basic cause of low economic activity; statism. In trying to protect everyone against every adversity, governments are simultaneously stifling any risk that that ultimately offers the possibility of reward.
Looking at today’s activity in the markets, I have to wonder if the correction is all but over. The rounding top line of the S&P 500 is moving down, but the market is rising to meet it. At present, it seems they should intersect somewhere in the 2000 – 2020 range. Breaking the rounding top could result in another run to new highs. Gold is flirting with the top line of it’s down channel, but seems unwilling to firmly break it. If it doesn’t, it could fall to a new low in this cycle. If it does, though, it could go to $1800 or so in a fairly short time. Comment?
Pardon me, Gold to $1600.
QE Three……
i think we’ll see more tightening, not more qe. the economy is strong enough to handle the four 25 bps raises the fed is planning. it’s time to let a little air out of the markets before they become over inflated. this correction is good news. i’m looking for another buying point.
…but i’m also watching for a world depression, like the weisses are. i’m not worried about a recession, though.
I think the Weiss’s are off by a few years…. The Depression began in November 2007 and began to end in March 2009
I ment today….. Today’s rally is “unusual”…
Prime working age employment is still 3 million below 2007 levels, and slightly below January 2000 levels…
Nope, despite indebting our children with trillions, we have only blown more bubbles, or re-blown the asset bubbles democratic policy led by the Clinton admin and Fannie and Freddie instigated. We are heroin addicts and government is the pusher. We no longer get a high, soon we will OD trying.
home builders are doing well. so are automobiles. low rates, low gasoline prices, cars are going to sell. our economy still revolves around the american love affair with the automobile. we’ll see what the upcoming driving season brings.
On the other hand, consumer confidence is at a low point, and, of the 175 companies that went public last year, over 70% are below their IPO prices.
And many of those autos are bought with loans that will default. Sales of cars could be down this year.
low gasoline prices and interest rates equal good automobile sale. this should go on for the next couple years. it’s coming.
Government will never be the natural catalyst to revive, restore, or manage any countries economical wealth. When they choose to its called a socialist dictatorship! Go to any self made & managed country farm that takes care of its own family & surrounding neighbors & you’ll find the back bone of fiscal responsibility. Supply & demand has a natural balance & when u count on increases or production quota’s you inflate your own balance of fiscal responsibility. Wall Street was wiped out in the collapses of the past but the small farmer had to be told that disaster had struck. Greed causes these issues when u grow a government that determines that any reduction month over month & year over year is a sign for Q.E. balancing. Is anyone watching Japan? And the biggest mass of millions on the face of the earth is fixing to be herded off there farm lands and brought into ghost cities to completely change the foundational backbone & strength of a nation to become the new #1 backbone of the whole world in manufacturing supplies & demand. China is considered by some finacial gurus about to collapse there own wall Street. When it happens the people managed by the government will suffer greatly but, those still living in the farms & fields will have to be told things are terrible once again. Currency can never be the building blocks of fiscal & economic health. They always fail. But, teach a man to fish & you feed the nation.