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Surely you remember Intel. It is still the largest U.S. semiconductor maker, but has curiously faded from prominence. It was once at the top of the heap, riding the wave of desktop computer upgrades and exploiting its part in the WinTel alliance for all it was worth. Yet those days have passed.
Businesses began migrating to a thin client, cloud-based computing model years ago and consumers moved to mobile. While Intel has built a modest cloud microprocessor business, companies in the vanguard have been adept at cobbling together custom hardware to suit their needs and snubbing the giant. Intel’s efforts in mobile failed miserably, culminating with a humiliating exit in April.
But late last month, Intel took one giant step forward with the acquisition of a Russian software company that helps computers see.
Indeed, the addition of Itseez, a startup led by Intel alumni Victor Erukhimov and Sergey Molinov, will help it develop facial-recognition software for security solutions and image recognition for drones and self-driving cars. In fact, Itseez algorithms have made considerable progress identifying traffic signs, lane markers, and pedestrians to help autonomous cars avoid accidents.
Doing that algorithmically is much more difficult than you would think. Humans quickly recognize the difference between obstacles that are dangerous and those that are harmless. For example, humans easily figure out that rain or bugs hitting the windshield are harmless.
A computer has to first identify the obstacle, classify its threat value based on all that it knows about rain or insects in the real world, make an informed decision and then automate. And that’s an easy example. Consider the dilemma when the obstacle is a deer, or worse, a human being. These are complex problems we humans, for all of our foibles, are better at solving than computer algorithms.
Morgan Stanley estimates self-driving cars will lead to $507 billion in annual productivity gains worldwide, so competition is fierce. Carmakers are scrambling to implement systems.
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Intel, with its longtime support of Linux, held an early advantage given the automotive industry preference for open standards. The Linux Foundation release of Automotive Grade Linux should further that lead.
The most notable rivals are Qualcomm (QCOM), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and most importantly, Nvidia (NVDA). Intel’s strong history in computer graphics and modular approach is gaining traction in the industry with carmakers such as Tesla (TSLA).
Yet the industry giant still lags behind. While Qualcomm and Intel are building software applications on top of their powerful modems and processors, Nvidia is offering a plug-and-play solution called Drive PX-2, essentially a supercomputer bolted into the car. Flipping a switch begins monitoring of the car’s position, the objects around it and its speed. All of this data is then shipped back to a cloud where it can be analyzed and used to build new models.
Although Intel has had a tough time making the transition from desktop PCs to the cloud and Internet of Things, it’s a move the company must make. Self-driving cars are going to be one of the most important pieces of that transition. Itseez helps Intel remain competitive with its faster rival Nvidia. Intel shares are quiet now, but keep an eye on them because in the past they have had a habit of resurrecting when least expected.
Best wishes,
Jon Markman
{ 10 comments }
Every time I read an article concerning self driving cars, I chuckle. After the first pedestrian is maimed or killed, the insurance rates will skyrocket. There are way too many variables to consider with this ridiculous concept, even with a powerful computer. And what if the connection is temporarily lost?
I agree John B
There is so much technology in one of these baby’s you had better get a FULL 10 year warranty or else you will be broke paying repair bills. As John states what happens when the connection is lost do you deposit another quarter?
Or when the power grid shuts down.
Will
The real value of the shared-ride services like Uber, is that long before any insurance company lobbyist tolerates the risk John B describes, there will be semi-automatic driving.
Ever get stuck behind a funeral procession, where 75 cars all follow one another, headlights on? The hearse driver picks out a path and the other cars all follow, kinda stupidly.
Well, that same stupid-follow process will soon arrive on a freeway near you.
One self-drivable car with a human behind the wheel, will lead the convoy.
Dozens of other cars going to the same destination, will stupidly follow.
Interactive communications between the cars, means that the follower cars will follow so close together that nobody can cut across the convoy. Just like a funeral procession, the convoy will get through.
It’s exactly like a passenger train, except instead of iron couplers that attach the train cars together, software does the job.
Uber raises billions in the private equity markets for a reason.
The same software we now use to book a ride, will get used to book a convoy we can join. The same Uber drivers who haul one person in the back seat, will lead convoys of cars all going to the same places.
Insurers will come around to the idea for one reason.
When was the last time a funeral procession was in a wreck?
Insurers don’t care if we’re bored when riding in cars. It only costs them money when we use the car but hit people with it.
Self driving will turn out to be a fad just like 3D printing. It simply will not happen. The only way to truly get the benefit of self driving, is to ban human drivers and convert 100%. This is the result of crisis level interest rates, money is chasing bad investments.
My mechanic tells me there will be constant upgrades to the car computer at $129.00 each that will be required. Another way for the dealers to make more money. He says keep your old car.
Anyone ever used a computer that has never crashed? The old Windows blue screen of death.
Never was a more prophetic name coined for something.
I have a new state of the art induction cooktop that is all computer driven. At the start, it only crashed every 10 or so times it was used. But there were phantom glitches all of the time. These increased in frequency until it was becoming unusable. So we got the technician in. He re-installed the software and all is now ok. But it was supposed to be fully installed and tested when we received it. And the problems got worse with time. Performance degraded. If it was a car, in the end we would have crashed into every second obstacle we encountered by the time we gave up.
Anyone want cars on the streets that perform in the same way?
I like the idea of self driving cars for the interstate or in stop and go freeway traffic. Early use of navigation systems almost had me make a right turn right in the middle of an overpass. There will need to be a lot of standards and rules for construction projects to let the car know about lane closures,detours, etc. Will not happen overnight and even then may be restricted to certain roadways.
Hi Jon, Off topic to a subject you covered a while ago, “Solar” and how TAN has underperformed. I just bought a starting position this week, feeling the future in Solar is intact to grow in the present and future. Solar has it’s challenge’s with the utility companies for residential applications, but the demand should continue to see large enough growth at ever more affordable prices to outright own your system, and simplify the purchase process. Can you do a follow up on you insights to the Solar industry?
Thanks, Jim.
Self driving cars are a great idea, think of all the accidents they would stop and no more drink drivers.