Can you believe it? The holidays are right around the corner, with Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas lined up one after the other.
Market Roundup
My personal favorite is Thanksgiving. And I’m sure that just like me, you’re more than familiar with the feeling you have after dinner when you’ve eaten way too much turkey and stuffing! You want nothing more than to retire to the couch and relax and couldn’t imagine eating another bite.
Frankly, that’s how junk bond investors are feeling these days. They’ve gorged on so much junk in the past few years that they can’t imagine swallowing any more. Yet Wall Street keeps serving up bigger platters of the stuff.
Take this Financial Times story on the Dell/Silver Lake/EMC (EMC) mega-merger. To help pay for the proposed $63 billion transaction, Dell will need to issue $40 billion or more in debt. Up to $15 billion will be in the form of high-yield, or “junk” bonds. That would be the biggest sale of junk debt ever.
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| Are investors too stuffed – on junk bonds – to take on any more? |
Then there’s the Anheuser-Busch InBev/SABMiller tie up. That $106 billion deal will need a whopping $70 billion in debt financing to close. That’s the most of any takeover in history. The current record belongs to Verizon Communications (VZ), which had to sell $49 billion worth of bonds as part of its buyout of its previous wireless phone partner Vodafone (VOD).
There’s just one problem. Investors have been selling junk bonds for months on end, recently pushing yields on BB-rated bonds to more than 6.3%. That’s the highest level in more than three years. Junk bonds lost almost 5% in the third quarter, the worst quarterly performance in four years.
Personally, I believe these are warning signs that investors may be full up on junk — and unable to swallow another bite. We’re already seeing weakness in the IPO market, where companies raise equity financing. If one or more big announced deals fail because companies can’t raise cost-effective debt financing, that would be another troubling sign for the markets. So keep an eye on developments in the junk bond market, as I am.
| “Investors have been selling junk bonds for months on end.” |
Any thoughts on this trend? Is it getting too expensive to raise money in the debt markets? Or will Wall Street bankers manage to find enough investors/patsies to pony up? Do you view these mega-deals as a healthy sign of risk-taking … or an indicator of a market top? Let me know what ideas you have at the Money and Markets website.
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My colleague Mark Najarian did a great job filling in while I was out on Friday, and many of you commented on his piece about the lack of an increase in Social Security benefit payouts.
Reader Unique said it’s completely unfair that benefits aren’t being increased: “It is the same thing every year. Congress does not want seniors, disabled, veterans and the poor to have an increase in Social Security benefits. There are those in Congress making $174,000 a year that complain they are not making enough money.
“The only thing that has gone down is gasoline cost. Tell me how far do people that are retired, disabled, or poor go if they even have a car? We all have worked all our lives and did not work for the government and need to have our yearly increase.”
Reader F.R. also weighed in on that, saying: “This is so unfair. Social Security is our money because we paid into it. Welfare recipients do not have to contribute anything and there is never any shortage of funds for them to receive their unearned benefits. The government has been stealing money from Social Security to fund other projects and Obamacare.
“Congress has just had another increase in their salaries and we have no increase in our Social Security? They have pensions and the cream of the crop in benefits too, at taxpayers’ expense. When are they going to wake up?”
And Reader Ted F. added: “The lack of a COLA in Social Security is just more of Obama’s war on the middle class. The index used to determine the Social Security COLA does not even come close to reflecting the costs seniors face.
“Gas prices are down, but that affects the vast majority of seniors very little. People driving to work is another story. Food prices and the cost of prescription drugs are up, which has a bigger impact on seniors than working people. The system is flawed and there are attempts to use an even more flawed system. The system needs to look at senior costs not the general population.”
Meanwhile, Reader Myron R. warned that the system can’t maintain itself given its current structure: “The only way Social Security will remain viable is if they expand and diversify the investment options. Manage it like all other long term investment/retirement plans. We as owners of Social Security should have some input into where the money can be invested. Guess politicians can’t think that way or that far into the future.”
Reader Jacob also picked up on the sustainability theme, saying: “Social Security was a system designed to support people retiring at 65 when the average life expectancy was 67. So let’s move away from the pointless rhetoric of whether Republicans cut too much or Democrats spend too much. The truth is that given the dramatic life expectancy change in the ensuing decades, the math doesn’t work, period.
“So you have two choices: Either raise the employment tax dramatically, or means test the system. Personally I don’t want to be paying more in employment taxes so that Warren Buffet or Bill Gates can collect Social Security. So I would prefer to limit who is eligible to those who really need that safety net.”
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this incredibly important topic. If I didn’t cover your comments here, or you have any more you’d like to add, then head over to the Money and Markets website and weigh in using this link.
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Shares of Weight Watchers (WTW) soared today after media mogul Oprah Winfrey bought a 10% stake in the company and joined the board of directors. She will try to turn around the weight-loss and healthy-living company, whose shares have slumped dramatically in the past few years.
I’m skeptical of the economic data that comes out of China, and I’m far from alone on that score. But if you take the figures at face value, GDP grew 6.9% in the third quarter. That was the weakest growth since the Great Recession year of 2009, but slightly above forecasts of 6.8%. Industrial output and fixed asset investment missed forecasts, while retail sales and services sector growth slightly topped them.
I recently wrote about the wave of mega-mergers, and some of the financing challenges facing companies that want to combine. But the Wall Street Journal covered another problem in a story today: Government antitrust scrutiny.
All these deals have resulted in only a handful of companies competing in several industries, from television to beer to household appliances to air travel. One widely used gauge of market concentration shows more than a third of U.S. industries meet the “highly concentrated” standard, up from around 25% in the mid-1990s.
Are too few companies dominating too many industries? Is that suppressing competition, resulting in us paying too much for goods and services? What do you think about the Chinese data? Believable or not? Hit up the website and let me hear about it.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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It is one thing when a company finances a takeover or a stock buyback or dividend increase from it own resources, but when it borrows money for the purpose, stockholders should take a close look at what is going on in the company. Executives may be trying to artificially boost the stock price and make the company look better than it really is, to justify their own salary and bonuses. They should be called to task for that. They could eventually cause serious problems within the company, maybe even cause it to fail – possibly after they have left with their profits.
Chuck,
Mitt Romney made millions doing just what you have described….
If you are so convinced capitalism is rigged and everybody in it is crooked, why are you here? Jim
I didn’t say everyone in business is crooked. I do say look out for those who are, and those who take advantage of the loopholes.
I was addressing the Eagle. Sorry! Jim
Probably so he can vote for the likes of Sanders or Clinton.
We had our overdue-correction (in the midst of this ongoing bull-market in August/September. Remember the Dow shed 2,000 points as Larry Edelson forecast, a few days prior!! Interest rates are not going up. They never were. Yellen blew hot-air to make half-intelligent people think she’d be raising rates, with the intention of giving the market a breather. The Fed has been manipulating the market since 2008/09 and they won’t let that power go, easily. Emergency low-rates are here to stay, not least because Uncle Sam cannot afford to pay higher interest payments. Understand this & you’ll stop hysterically warning about an imminent “bloody” event, linked to Fed rate hike/s & don’t be surprised if they print more Greenbacks!
I basically agree, Lee, except that the “correction” may not be complete yet. Wait til the recent layoffs and RIFs at companies like Caterpillar, HP, Twitter and others hit the October and November employment figures. Not to mention earnings at companies like Walmart, etc.
The correction is in its infancy.
Cash has never been a smarter option
The market sees well into the future. Everything we fear is probably already discounted. Santa Claus will arrive as usual this year. Jim
Jim you give the market to much credit.
Sorry Jim, I believe even Santa is a crook,or he is bending the rules.
Economic and financial data that comes from the Chinese government may be little more suspect than that which comes from our own government. It is all doctored to make the politicians look as good as possible.
Am I the only one bothered by the approximately-$118,000 per year cutoff in Social Security withholdings? If I understand it correctly, that means Bill Gates and Katy Perry are each paying the same in annual Social Security costs, as someone making $117,500 in annual salary. If Social Security truly is a “Ponzi scheme”, then let’s increase that ceiling tenfold, to $1,180,000 per year. Those making that kind of bank can well afford it; the assistance to the overall Social Security picture could be staggering in the long-term.
not feed up with junk here. can’t wait to buy at the bull trap coming up, probably the last good buying op in this correction.
Let’s call the President & the congressman on their :Hypocrisy and their Indifference
to the seniors on a fixed income…Social security…..Hypocrits!!!!!!!!!!!
Here’s My Solution : Tie their salary and benefit increases to be the same as they allow for the Social Security COLA!!!!!!!
Either they Scale down to the Paltry level Social Security recipients receive….OR…They Must ……scale up the S.S. COLA increases to match what ever increases They receive.
Also….look at how Obama has been spending Millions of $$$$ of taxpayer’s money on his trips….as if he were royalty…but then denying comparable increases that should be going to S.S. recipients!!
Tom
How about we just freeze their raises and all gubmint employee raises for 5 years. Let SS have some of the gravy for a while.
What do we not understand about the government owing us $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities? They don’t have it and they aren’t going to have it. Like every politician, they have made promises they can’t keep because they won’t be here to take the blame when it collapses. Most Americans still don’t understand they have all been sold down the river by the Federal Government. Jim
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that bonds, junk or otherwise, have had their heyday already….what with the Fed buying up everything they can get their hands on, at whatever the prevailing price happened to be…all in the name of “quantitative easing.”
The corporate bond market is threatened by the large amount of oil producer debt. They used 86 per cent of their cash flow last quarter to service debt. If $40 oil continues much longer we could see a series of significant defaults soon. Be afraid! Jim
Jim, afraid,Im scared stiff
Unlike equities, leveraged debt is prone to the domino effect. Once the dam breaks all hell breaks loose. The oil companies have a lot of company. America has a staggering amount of debt now, especially in sub prime auto loans and student loans. When the crisis hits those cautious and liquid investors will be able to buy quality assets at fire sale prices. Patience is the key. Jim
‘Glad someone else recognizes the danger in sub-prime auto and student loans. The latter have already caused a few for profit colleges to close up shop. I’ve read that GM could be in some danger from the former.
There have solutions to social security on the table for over a decade, and I am surprised they are not being discussed here. The cap must be removed entirely, compelling the richest 1% to pay into FICA the equivalent percentage of income that middle class workers pay – which is substantial. I have no objection to means testing for billionaires either. They have already stolen our futures. They owe us.
Social security would be an excellent retirement plan if cap was removed and no agency was allowed to use its funds;such as ssi etc. Larry T
The money is used for bombs and bullets. that is the problem.
Having lived in Southeast Asia off and on for fifteen years, I can say that most people there, including governments and large businesses, are less concerned about the accuracy of China’s reported numbers than they are about their trade policy and actions. Biggest complaint is that China simply overwhelms the rest of the area in commerce. Second biggest is that the US gets a better quality of Chinese junk than they do. While that may seem humorous, one look at the merchandise for the Asian market will convince you we get what passes for the good stuff.
I’m in the construction industry and though tools have gotten cheaper (all made in China) drywall is out of sight. Wood products have kept even with inflation increasing about 3 times the price of 30 years ago but drywall has had a 7 fold increase in cost. As the factories got bigger and increased in automation, reduced the need for manpower the price has risen dramatically. We are being ripped off by limited competition.
Prior to Social Security it was expected that a person would work fifty years. Many companies had mandatory retirement age of seventy. Before computers there were legions of bookkeepers/clerks. Two years of business school after high school put you at twenty. The earlier retirement age was viewed as a way to open up jobs during the depression. The big part of the drag on Social Security is that millions of people who never paid into the system are drawing form it. It was intended to benefit the people who paid into it. Now it provides for former welfare recipients who are unable or unwilling to work, states dumped them here after the two year lifetime cutoff on benefits in order to provide them with funds for a life of leisure. I had a paper route at twelve, after school job at almost fifteen and retired at sixty five and a half, I took a layoff.
It was also expected that the average retiree wouldn’t live very long past his or her working years. I worked to 78, and see no reason I shouldn’t have 5 or 6 more years anyway – now 87.
Unfortunately you are far too “politically correct” to print my comments. The lack of increase in Social Security payments are yet another indication that the concept of “Civil Servant” no longer exists. We exist to serve our government overlords. They give them selves raises and skim the cream from the top while “We the People” look for crumbs from the table of our overlords.
Obama is doing his best to destroy America. Obama is an avowed enemy of the United States and has declared so many times in the past. If you supported (or support) Obama you are an enemy of the USA either willingly or unwittingly. In fact, Obama is a bigger danger to America than King George, Hitler and Stalin were combined.
Like rats fleeing a sinking ship, I moved to a foreign country a few years ago. I watch the news in the USA and feel sorry for all of you who are still there.
Tom R.
Unless you gave up U.S. citizenship, Tom, the government rats can still get at you and chew on you. Good Luck.
Low quality IPO’s
Merger mania
Real estate mania in LA and NY
“Crane” index at all time highs
China real estate bubble has burst
Near record consumer confidence
Very low unemployment and jobless claims
Record margin debt
A powerless Fed
If you are positive about stocks and the economy, you don’t understand financial history
If markets crashed and soared when we expected them to we would all be rich. There is simply too much pessimism. I’ll get worried when the “all clear” is given after the December-January rally. Jim
Michael, absolutely spot on re: Junk Bond bloat/bubble whatever you want to call it…This is yet another in a massive and unprecedented number of canaries in the coal mine that are going to bring on one heck of a massive and aggressive bear market…that by the way as ALREADY started, in BOTH stocks and bonds…Look out below!
The Democrat commentators often tell us that The Market always does better during their administrations than the Republicans, which I didn’t believe. I have done my own research and have found that they are correct. On average The Market has done 40 per cent better since WW II under their administrations. But, as of 2015 America is bankrupt. If Democrat economic policies are so effective I would like to have it explained to me how decades long Democrat strongholds like Detroit, Chicago, and Baltimore are economic and social disasters, just like America in general today. Virtually any place controlled for long periods by them is in very bad shape. I live in Louisiana, which is blessed with natural wealth that should make it one of the most prosperous states, but 80 years of one party Democrat rule have rendered us poor and backward as well. New Orleans is a cesspool. Help me out here. Jim
Detroit is a brilliant example
My fellow seniors who are now whining that since seniors don’t drive much, the social security increase should not be based on the gasoline-depressed CPI, seem to have forgotten that not too many years ago, the CPI was “artificially” raised by outsize home price increases and exorbitant mortgage rates. Since seniors also don’t buy houses as much as the younger folks do, their social security increases at that time were significantly over-stated. It all comes out in the wash, folks.
You have a good point Chuck but bad numbers seem irrelevant today. Money is charging into the market from all over the world today ignoring fundamentals. Greed is trumping common sense and earnings numbers in a big way. I get the feeling this market is being manipulated as it going up for all the wrong reasons. When the big money pulls the plug stand back.
Take a look at the Canadian retirement system. They invest in the stock market and are running a surplus. The US invests in worthless government bonds backed by funny money printed without any backing. Congress won’t permit private individual funding because they know that with a little education, the common masses will begin to understand all this so we are “locked in” to their system, which they, incidentally, don’t have to contribute to because they know better. Do you understand why now better?
Jim,
The stock market has done 167 times better under the Democrats than under the Republicans going way back to 1929….. That amounts to a .04% annual return under the GOP (35 years) and 10% annual return under the Democrats (40 years)….
That’s right, but you still haven’t answered my question above. Is all our pain the result of Republican meddling or the fact Democrats do as many things wrong as they do right? Jim
Mike,
Enjoy your comments and all that comes from M&M, not the candy,
As to your comments on Growth??? in China, I own some containers through a company that rents them out and manages them for me.
Since January monthly rentals have been dropping and last month was down about 50%.
If there was the growth claimed and since most everything is shipped by containers I guess that the number of available containers has doubled in the last month or growth is not as stated.
Very strange???
Anyway, keep up the great work at Weiss, until they come to get you.
Bob
Jim,
That is your opinion while the above are facts…… The Average American did really well from 1932-1981, then they got crushed under the Republican Revolution which ended with another Stock Market Crash in 2007……
America ALWAYS does best when the average American does better as wealth flows in their direction under the Democrats….. Under the Republicans, wealth flows to the top 3% and the average American suffers and America falters… The above returns are facts going back almost 100 years and those return bear out what I am saying….
When Democrats rule Income Inequity falls and the velocity of money increases as more and more Americans have money to spend… That spending creates more jobs in America…… Just the opposite happens when the Republicans rule as wealth flows to the 3% and Income Inequity increases and the velocity of money falls as the average America has less and less money to spend… As the velocity of money falls, the economy falls along with the returns in the stock market……
Then why are virtually all Democrat political strongholds basket cases? Jim
you mean like those strongholds like Chicago , Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, st. Louis most of southern California, new York, boston , yea jim good point why are those bastions of liberalism just sooooo nice places so live and work,
Hawk,
If you have any education in economics and financial history, you already know the answer to that statement….. All of those Industrial centers began to go down from 1981 forward as Millions of Middle Class jobs were shipped to China and Mexico During the Republican Revolution….. The Republicans wrote and passed NAFTA under Bush. It was Nixon who opened China….. The ONLY people who got rich from 1981 forward were the Conservative Ultra Wealthy (CUWs) at great cost to the average citizen, which is ALWAYS what happens when the GOP is in power….. But you probably already know that, aye Hawk?… :(
WELL MIKEY S. OR Eagle495 or some girls name whatever you call yourself from one post to the next first of all NAFTA was signed into law by BILL CLINTON a week after he took office on his second term and BILL CLINTON was a democrat, you claim all those jobs were lost from 1981 forward to CHINA + MEXICO BECAUSE OF the REPUBLICAN REVOLUTION more B./S. from you JOBS WERNT LOST TO MEXICO TILL BILL CLINTON SIGNED NAFTA AND THAT WAS IN 1996 or 1997 the trade agreements with china came after NAFTA ………..HERES A LIST OF MIKEY S. twisted and warped statements he says the next president of this country will be a woman and a democrat (Hillery 7 layer salad Clinton ) I really doubt that ….since she being investigated by the FBI they now have found 400 classified /top secret e-mails that she said she didnt know existed ….. and that’s so far so im sure theres more to come MIKEY S. said he cant wait till we get this country off fossil fuels and on to wind and solar programs well first of all SOLAR costs about 8-10 times as much as coal and wind costs 12-14 times as much coal …. so if the imbecile democrats actually get rid of fossil fuels look for your electric bill to go up 10 fold or more ……. and look for more companys to go overseas as energy costs here skyrocket .ooopss I made a boo boo I should be calling mikey s. by his new name EAGLE495 …..IM SOOOOO SORRY im not trying to hurt your feelings I just forgot so anyway……. mikey s. you claim under democrats the stock market did 167 times better 167 x cmon oh wait there goes mikey s. refering to 1932 again if things are so much better always under democrats why do we have almost 50 million people on food stamps a national debt that nearing 18.5 trillion dollars if Obama had been doing his job like he promised us our national debt would be 5 trillion dollars so now because of OBAMAS MISHANDING OF THE GOVERNMENT his reckless spending habits every MAN….. WOMAN …… CHILD …AND BABY now owe as of today $$$$ fifty seven thousand two hundred dollars ($57,200) THATS EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU owe that amount today and tomorrow it will be more and the next day more but if that scares you ………….think about this the UNFUNDED LIABILIITES per taxpayer now sits at as of today eight hundred twenty eight thousand five hundred and two dollars ( $ 828,502) tomorrow it will be more and the next day more yet. Oh and tomorrow were going to talk about MIKEY S. carbon tax another great idea from the democrats to make sure you pay more in taxes and keep less of your paycheck
People are voting with their feet in California, Illinois, etc. Population and wealth are fleeing these jurisdictions at an alarming rate. I think there is ample evidence that their policies are destructive in the long term. I’m not defending Republicans but pointing out
Democrats aren’t worth a damn either. Jim
Jim,
See above…. The jobs that were once in many of those places are now in Mexico and China thanks to the GOP…..
Twaddle. Income inequality is greater under 0 than almost any other country on this earth. It is the highest it’s been since the Roaring 20’s. Demonrat propaganda fools only the bottom half of the class or as the Dimbulbocrats like to say the “base”
During Obama’s presidency, more companies have gone out of business annually than have been created. This is a symptom of our corporatist form of government (read FASCIST). I am 63 years old and have never lived under a capitalist system in the US. Every congress & President, Democrat & Republican, has been purchased by large corporations since Roosevelt, the great communist, was in office. Remember he is the man who crammed an 18-24 month deep recession into a ten year depression and had to get us into an unnecessary world war to get us out of the depression caused by his meddling government policies. Yes, there are too few companies dominating American industry because they paid for laws to obstruct the competition! It is easier and cheaper than to be competitive and the American consumer will pay the price. Capitalism works but we are spiraling downward at the behest of large corporations, domestic & international. There is no room and no financing for the little guys who are more agile, creative, and competitive than the big boys…… besides, our congress will make them illegal and tax them out of existence! Oh, and don’t make the foolish mistake that the S&P or Dow is our economy, folks. That is just the stock market!
What rubbish… That is like saying FDR was responsible for the Great Depression… You do remember that the Crash and three years of Depression brought a loss of 90% under the Hoover Administration and the Republican majority….. The Crash bottomed with in months of FDR and a majority Democratic Congress being elected….. The same thing happened under Cheney/bush in 2007, when in 16 months the stock market lost 60% and a new Depression was ushered in as they did NOTHING, just like Hoover… Again, within 90 days the crash bottom occurred under Obama and a Democratic majority Congress….
It’s interested to see Democrats accused of being Fascists. Usually they are said to be Communists. I suppose the Communists slipped over into Fascism under the influence of all that campaign funding from Big Business and the wealthy. It just shows how little difference there is between the two systems – merely the source of funding. Fascism from business owned by people. Communism from business owned by government, supposedly in the name of THE People. In both cases the people actually in power are politicians. In this country both Democrats and Republicans are basically “owned” by the big money interests. There is little difference between them.
Dell taking over EMC is another case of a company gone bad buying a company that profitable so that it can break it up by selling parts in order to try and sqve itself.JOBS are at stake and families who need them. Hope this can be stopped. I am retired and have no stake here except to watch Wall street beat us back once again. Oh and Mrs Clinton will surely do something about this as she so cares about us middleclass people!
How much is Dell borrowing for that EMC takeover? How much of that borrowed money is going to end up in the pockets of Dell’s management in the form of bonuses for orchestrating the takeover? How long before the bigger Dell is again in trouble due to its increased debt?
OH YES HILLERY CLINTON CARES ABOUT US AS MUCH AS SHE CARED FOR THE SECURITY DETAIL THAT GOT MURDERED ON HER WATCH AND SHE LIED AND TRIED TO BLAME IT ALL ON THE BURNING OF a BOOK (KORAN ) VIDEO ON YOU TUBE
Do you guys work for the GOP? Give us facts not your fantasy opinions, aye?… :(
hilllery Clinton did lie about everything shes a liar bill her husband was a liar too and they will still lie to people like you to fool you. you the one being fooled not the rest of us here the FBI is investigating HILLERY CLINTON FOR A REASON ,,,,,, HILLERY CLINTON FOR PRISONDENT VOTE FOR HILLERY FOR PRISONDENT AWHOOPS im bad I mispelled again
You need to consider some meds and you badly need to study who wrote NAFTA and who brought it (Republicans during the bush Administration)…. Clinton’s signing was ceremonial as the binding legislation was signed by Bush before he left office… Do your own study and quit spouting the Screamer line from Clear Channel which is owned by the hedge fund run by Romney,… Gezzz .. :(
Of course Hillary lies – she is a politician. Politician = liar, ipso facto, regardless of party or position.
A couple of things caught my eye this morning.
Job postings are skyrocketing, but hiring lags. Could be that few applicants are qualified to fill the openings. Is that because employers sent so many jobs overseas that would have trained workers to fill the new jobs? What goes around comes around, hmm? Or, if those new jobs are in manufacturing, is the American educational system at fault, for focusing on academic subjects and service type occupations?
The other item is that Millennials are being blamed for the deteriorating condition of America’s highways. They seem to drive less, and in smaller, more fuel efficient cars, so they use less gas and pay less of the fuel taxes that are the main source of highway funding. LOL!
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