My market day doesn’t start at 9:30 A.M. I get ready for each trading session the night before by surveying market activity around the world. Then I follow that up by a secondary review several hours before the NYSE opens for business.
Market Roundup
When I did my customary checks before today’s open, I was struck by one thing. Many, many markets are trading right at or near incredibly critical technical levels.
Currencies. Commodities. Bonds. Stocks. Investments of all sorts are sitting on a knife’s edge — ready to make major moves in one way or the other. To cite just a few examples …
The Australian dollar is testing the 69 cent level against the U.S. dollar for the third time since last August. A break below would open the door to a move down to the bear market lows from 2008.
On the flip side, the Japanese yen is banging its head against overhead resistance that dates all the way back to fall 2014. If this level gives way, we could be looking at a very, very powerful move higher against the buck.
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| World markets are at critical levels — meaning you can expect some big moves in the near term. |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note tested key support around 2.13% at the end of last week. A break below that could lead to a sharp plunge below 2% or even 1.8%.
S&P 500 futures dropped as low as 1,895 in the overnight session. If these levels can’t hold, it puts lows from August 2015 (1,831) and October 2014 (1,815) into play.
Or how about the Dow Jones Industrial Average? We’re only a few hundred points away from the key 16,000 level. If we breach that, it will look like the Dow has carved out a massive “head and shoulders” top on its weekly chart. That, in turn, could signal a move lower of potentially a couple thousand additional points.
Bottom line: We are at an incredibly important point in time. Major moves could be right around the corner, in a whole host of markets. So what strategies make sense?
Well, let’s say you’ve been “short” a stock that’s closing in on a key level. You may want to consider lightening up on the position. That way, you’ll lock in some profit in case you see a major upside reversal at support.
But don’t close out the entire position, either. That’s because a breach of that key level could cause the targeted stock to accelerate to the downside as investors on the other side of your trade capitulate.
What if you don’t have an investment in a given market at all? Then consider adding a half position at or near the key level in question.
Let’s say you ultimately want to have a $10,000 short position in the S&P 500. You could buy $5,000 of the single-leveraged inverse ETF that targets the index, the ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH). That way, you have some skin in the game if the level gives way and the move accelerates. But if we see a major upside reversal, your SH losses will be less than if you owned a full position.
And what if the S&P 500 is only able to manage an anemic, counter-trend bounce here? Then that would be a sign of underlying weakness. You could use that bounce to add to your SH position in anticipation that the key level won’t hold on the next test.
If you’re a less aggressive investor, another strategy would be to simply lighten up overall as key levels get closer. Get out of some “iffy” positions, and wait to see what happens. Brokers hate it when you go to cash … but cash can be your best friend in vulnerable or falling markets. And that sure as heck is what this one looks like! These are just some of the strategies I’m putting to work in my Interest Rate Speculator service, with quite a bit of success lately.
Meanwhile, I’m interested to hear what you have to say. Are you implementing any of these approaches, or do you have other techniques you’re using in this market? The comment section is a great outlet, so make sure you take advantage of it.
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Last week was a disaster for the equity markets, with stocks suffering their worst start to the year ever (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, anyway). So what does that say about the outlook going forward? Are we close to stabilizing, or on the brink of an even more-painful decline?
Reader $1,000 Gold said: “A day like Friday makes me realize everyone should own stocks. If you never make a dime, you’ll at least walk away a better person. Nothing builds character better than overcoming your fears and following your convictions, especially when there’s money on the line that makes it real.
“Also, I don’t think anything can build character better than a group of grown men who are 180 degrees apart in their opinions, yet show respect for one another as you do. I appreciate your open mind and hearing my side of it.”
Reader Scott responded with the following view: “Playing ‘Catch the falling knife’ is rarely fun or profitable. Hope you have close stops. If it bounces from here, make your stops break even.
“According to indicators and other metrics, this bear market is just getting started. I’ve been flat since June 2015, and don’t see anything that makes me want to get back in. Except oil and gold. Those markets are bottoming now.”
Reader Gordon added his take as well, saying: “I am looking for some buying opportunities to come around, but am being extremely cautious. Cash will be king for awhile until this all sorts out. Maybe buy late spring when we can determine what the hell is going on. Until then, good luck to everyone!”
Finally, Reader Badger10 said: “When I see the country starting to pay down its escalating debt, I will start to buy stocks. Until then, we are in a bear market that will humble a lot of people.”
Thanks for weighing in. If you have any other thoughts or advice to add, let me hear them below.
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China continues to monkey with the markets in an attempt to find something that works. Policymakers apparently decided not to aggressively intervene in the stock market, leading to a greater-than-5% decline in the benchmark averages there.
But they look to have intervened in the offshore currency market, leading to a short-term rise in the value of the yuan. Unfortunately, liquidity in Hong Kong is tightening in response to those moves — with a benchmark short-term borrowing rate there soaring more than nine percentage points to 13.4%. More from Bloomberg on what this means.
Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs in the “$20-a-barrel oil” club. But Morgan’s view is that a potential dollar rise would be the primary driver behind a renewed plunge, whereas Goldman believes bloated supplies will leave crude with a “two handle.”
I believe M&A activity will continue to slow as deal financing gets more and more expensive. But that doesn’t mean some transactions won’t be able to run the gauntlet.
Shire PLC (SHPG) just said it would buy Baxalta (BXLT) for $32.2 billion in order to bolster its heft in the pharmaceutical market, adding treatments for hemophilia, cancer and select rarer diseases. The companies originally discussed the deal when market conditions were friendlier in early August, but took a while to finalize it amid concerns about the tax implications of the transaction.
Lastly, the famous musician David Bowie died from cancer at the age of 69. The experimental artist produced a number of well-known songs over his multi-decade career, including “Changes,” “Heroes,” “Let’s Dance,” and “Under Pressure.”
What do you think of China’s latest effort to calm the currency market? How about Morgan’s $20 oil call — do you agree or disagree with it? Any other thoughts on M&A, or other stories I did or didn’t cover here? Add your voice to the discussion below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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The banks position is likely to help them make money, they are not interested in helping the every day investor. So jumping on the $20 oil wagon can likely be an attempt to manipulate opinion (and positions) more than what they actually believe. I hope Im right, but think oil is near or at bottom now, we’re just a click away from it going up again.
Of course it’s a ploy. These 2, especially Goldman are the masters of printing $$. I guarantee that GS and MS are trying to shake out the sellers and are beginning to cover their shorts between $30 – $35.
Whatever GS says, do the opposite. You’ll be right 100% of the time!!
Oh Mike, Mike,
The real crash took place beginning in 2007 and ending within three months of Obama taking office in 2009….. This is simply a pullback like 1937….. A stock Market Crash and Depression has NEVER happened on the watch of a Progressive Liberal Administration…. they have ALL happened during Conservative Administrations….. It will be NO different now, despite what the Far Right Screamers are saying…. :(
There is no such thing as “never”. there is always a first time for everything.
Chuck,
We invest based on “odds”……. When you consider the above is based on economic behavior over 240 years, I’d call that pretty significant “odds”, wouldn’t you?
After the great rise we’ve had to new all-time highs, do you think the best immediate odds are for even higher highs, or for a significant consolidation at least, before going higher again? Consolidation usually means a correction of some degree.
What are the odds you can win in a fixed market. Taiwan just stepped in with government money to buy stocks. Its all glory and no guts.
Eagle495
I don’t doubt your thoughts, however I’m an investor and I’ve never made an investment decision based on who or what party is in office. Washington is a waste of time and motivated by self interest. Would you hop in or out based on which party is in power?
Howard,
Since 1929, the average stock market return under Democrats has been 10% annually (40 years). During the same time the return under Republicans has been 0.4% annually….. New York Times by Alan Grayson: “Poor Dumb Rich People”….
Howard,
During the above time the Republican Administrations where in power 36 years….. I failed to mention that in the above…
Exactly correct. Whose in office has absolutely nothing to do with the direction of the market
Fool. When the curtain is pulled back and we discover this corrupt administration is wearing no pants you will probably faint. The ONLY reason why this hasn’t happened yet is because your camp controls the media and you are allowed to create facts as you see fit. The day of reckoning is coming soon.
Do your own homework and stop listening to and believing the Bull crap from the right wing screamers…… Also, if you check the FACTS, you will find that since Reagan (Republican) relaxed the Media Ownership laws in 1982, the MAJORITY of the New Media is NOW owned by the wealthiest 3% or corporations that they control… Ever wonder why Sanders (who is admired by the Majority) is getting less camera time than Trump (who will NEVER be the GOP candidate)? Geezzz!… :(
There are those that don’t know what they are talking about and those that don’t know they don’t know what they are talking about. I do know this is going to be the craziest year of our lives. We are in a place we have never been before. The septuagenarian Sanders as President could well be one of those surprises. Jim
2007-2009 was “Crazy”, just as was 1929-1932…… I’ve a prediction: Bernie is President and more than likely, Elizabeth Warren is his V.P. and the GOP loses their Majority in Congress….. The Majority are beginning to realize that the GOP has Hoodwinked them since 1981. Come the start of 2016, the markets will take off to the moon, just as they did in 1932 and after 1937 with the Democrats in charge with a huge majority again…….
Speaking of Media Bias. I read an article that argued that pro government media bias began under FDR. W.R. Hearst was a bitter opponent of his policies and owned many newspapers. After the successful prosecution of Al Capone for income tax evasion the government realized what a powerful weapon it had in the IRS. Treasury Secretary Morgenthau let Hearst know the he and his mistress could well be the target of such an audit and Hearst immediately began comparing FDR to Thomas Jefferson, and the rest is history. The Media and Hollywood don’t fear public opinion, they fear the IRS. Jim
I’m with John Wayne. I’m for letting everyone believe what they want to believe. Jim
So… Mr. Eagle495. You think, as has happened under the jack boot of the liberals… it is fine and fitting that retirees earn 0.005% on their savings. That is a good thing! Sure keep voting for liberal Democrates. They really know how to take care of retirees who contributed their labor to the country and now do not deserve a living interest rate on their nest egg. So parasites in the securities racket live of the fat of the land with zero interest rates. P.S. wake up Eagle! The nut jobs in the FED only raised it 0.25%. The market is crashing as a result of smart money cashing out. Also, does anyone really think retail spending will increase when motor fuel returns to $4.50 a gallon? These financial commentators on TV and the WEB are brain dead.
Its not a political party controlling interest rates its the Fed the black opps of government. Mr. Eagle495 politicians do not make economies prosper its big business with business ethics(all gone now) who build factories and hire workers. As the consumer spending drys up and there is no need for this then they shovel the money into buybacks or dividends and well lets not forget the pockets of their hard working? CEOs They are constantly back filling to keep up the illusion of prosperity.
Gordon,
Look up “Income Inequity” and the “Velocity of Money” and “Growth periods of the Middle Class”….. When the Democrats are in control, the Inequity of Income goes down as the 97% get more money and the Velocity of money goes up along with the economy as that growing Middle Class spends that money….. Just the opposite happens when the Republicans are in charge as they are so beholding to the 3% who fund their campaigns….. Really, look it up on Wikipedia or Google….
Eagle495, The bigger the knife the harder it falls; and now the knife is becoming more like a guillotine. So go ahead and stick your head in.
Edelson is ready for $5000 gold by year end 2017… Harry Dent says gold going to 500… What side are you leaning towards? They both make compelling arguments.
Gold goes down as the stock market goes down…. Gold ONLY goes up during times of impending war and Inflation, neither of which do we have now……
There are lots of little wars, especially in the Muslim world. It wouldn’t take too much to turn them into a BIG war, involving much more of the world.
Going back the past 100 years, when did GOLD go up and when did it top? In our most recent history, it topped in April 1987 when many of us with a little Military Intelligence training and experienced realized that the “Window of Vulnerability” had closed as the Russians went bankrupt by trying to match us in an incredible ruse called Star Wars and the risk of War with them evaporated…..
Not sure I can agree, although the media doesn’t highlight it there are wars going on all over the world, we don’t have inflation yet,
Larry feels Harry’s logic is, shall we say “dented”.
very simple. gold responds favorably to easing by the fed. the fed tightens, gold will go down. the fed eases, gold will go up. gold price is technically a function of the fed funds rate. i don’t know if that’s always true, but that’s what’s been happening.
…and think of quantitative easing as just an extension of the fed funds rate.
Everyone is right/wrong.I say ‘keep your powder dry’ Stay in cash or very liquid.
You could also take a modest bet on the down-side, as Mike suggests. Right now, that seems to perhaps actually be the safe-side.
I agree, I am 85% in cash but am selling deep in the money PUTs to try for some income.
You can compare pasts times with today if all is equal but I think economic problems are much more out of control than prior. Possibly this crash will be worst than last. But only time will tell!
This IS NOT going to be a Crash…. This is 1937 all over again….. Simply a pullback….. Again, in the 240 years America has existed, there has NEVER been a Stock Market Crash and Depression start during the watch of a Liberal Progressive Administration, NEVER….
Sadly, the GOP wants very badly for this to happen here so that they can get another disastrous Republican Administration elected….. Incidentally, the last one of Cheney/bush caused a Crash that lost 60% of the stock markets value and ushered in another Depression……
The precursors to the .dot com crash and the crash of 2007-2009 were already in the making years before. Poor President George W. Bush. He had no idea whatsoever that he was the patsy in the grand set-up that resulted in getting a guy like Obama elected. Normally, President Obama would have had 0 chance to go beyond his level of competence in the U.S. Senate.
The FED did add fuel to the fire, to be sure with reduced interest rates and easy money. It created a number of bubbles to this day. So, we have more crashes to come, that’s all. How ironic if the next president is another (Jeb) Bush. JEB is clueless as to what we really face. Bad Karma if that be the case.
If the banks are saying go north go south , you will be heading in the same direction !
Hi Mike
At some point we must stick our toe in the water again. Cash will not make you rich without risk. At what point do we jump back in. I’ve started already. Good luck.
Done carefully, it might pay off. Even during the worst markets, there are always a few stocks that go up. Just be careful.
i started buying back in at the 1881 s&p level on sept 28. my thinking is, no recession in sight, no crash in sight, and the market always eventually returns. as hard as it is for me to do, i like buying stocks when they’re on sale.
When polls show that Bernie Sanders is very likely to beat ANYONE the Republicans put up for President, will be a pretty good time to re-invest….. :)
Bernie seems to be the most HONEST candidate in either party, at least. I’ll say that much for him, at least.
See Chuck, I told you there was “something” we could agree on!….. :) “Feel the Burn”
Politics and honest men do not mix well. JFK was the last one and look what happened to him. Even the president has to toe the big business line or else.
Better start preparing a “Plan B” ( Second passport, foreign residence, and overseas bank account). No matter who is elected President in Nov., the die is already cast. Nothing anyone can do about it at this point.
bernie is on tough cookie. look at some of the youtube videos of his fights in congress. i’d love to see him go head to head with trump.
GOLD, WWII, “FIRE AND BRIMSTONE”
When the U.S. eventually runs out of gold (bullion) then we will go to war. Its inevitable. Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht was Germany’s Banker in the 1920’s and 1930’s. After Hitler became Chancellor, he became Hitlers Banker. Hjalmar Schacht told Hitler in 1939 that Germany was in trouble, as Germany was Out of Gold. ( The old discredited Reich banknote was unbacked by gold or silver). Upon hearing Schacht’s advice, Hitler then fired his banker and invaded Poland and the rest is History.
Hitler stole gold bullion from every country he invaded. ( You see the secret of gold is everyone wants some, even if they say they don’t or do not care. In the end, history shows men and whole nations will die for a Piece of Eight ( Ocho de Oro). Hitler went to War for revenge (Versailles), the gold, power and control, along with his warped plan against global Jews, known as the “Final Solution”.
Yea, it was his final hour and his demise. What a fool Hitler and the German’s were. I find it very striking that even today, the judgement against the German people has (re)visited the decedents of those Germans who voted Hitler in to power as Furer two generations ago. Prophetic !
What a fool we will be too if we sell-off all our gold to Asia (China) and keep printing money and building even more unpayable debt (QE) like we still are doing in one form or fashion for years. Our collective demise will be no less lenient or merciful without a collective repentance, and soon.
America is about to experience a “shaking” (financial earthquake) or at least, set of financial tremors. Been a long time coming too ( 7 years, to be exact). The Schemata is coincidentally, right on schedule. Rabbi Johnathan Cahn (New Jersey) is spot-on in his book by this title.
Craig,
If you really believe that “this is it”, I will take your bet….. All we need to do is listen to what Bernie Sanders (the next President) is suggesting: Put Glass-Steagall back to law, break up the big banks, overturn Citizens United, bring to trial those that brought the Crash of 2007-2009, throw out NAFTA and the trade deals with China that have destroyed American manufacturing and elect a Democratic Majority to Congress so that we can get back to the rest of the economic healing that has been so trashed since the Republican Revolution of 1981-2009…… Think of the repairs done from 1932-1981 and you are very close to this current cycle of 2009-2059…..
It is thought that Hitler invaded Poland as the beginning of a campaign to gain “Lebensraum” living space for the German people. He stole from every country he invaded. And it was not just Gold. The Reich stole art works, natural resources and anything else that was not nailed down. When he did get gold what could he have done with it. Use it for trade? Which countries were trading with the Germans. Use it to build tanks?
Gold retains value the same way currency retains value, only if people believe in it.
In the sixteenth century it was illegal in Spain to take any precious metals out of the country. The English used their gold for trade. Spain ended up a third world nation. The British ended up ruling the waves.
Is what Trump is attempting to doing today, so much different than what Hitler was doing in the 1930’s?
Eagle495, are you seriously comparing Trump with Hitler????????????
Howard,
I have an old German neighbor (90 years old) who says he is scared…Trump is echoing EXACTLY what he used to hear from Hitlers pre election speeches. Racism and fearmongering against an entire group of people indescriminetely, and talk of “making the country great again” when the general population (a very proud people, just as Americans are now) was discouraged at where their country was at. Nobody at the time thought Hitler was going to be what he turned out to be, much as Trump is now…. All they need is another false flag event and the stage will be set… I guess well see. Hopefully sanity will prevail and Sanders will win. although with all his retoric against big business and banks, he will certainly make many high placed enemies… I hope he doesn’t follow Kennedy’s fate (sigh)
Same hateful policies…. Same “It’s “their” fault”….. Muslims/Jews/Blacks/Mexicans?
Mussolini, Stalin, Rove/Goebbels, Joe McCarthy, George Wallace, etc, etc……
Politics and honest men do not mix well. JFK was the last one and look what happened to him. Even the president has to toe the big business line or else. The ” you cannot eat it crowd seems to be winning out on gold” It is being constantly trashed so certain parties can accumulate it before it takes off which it always does. The Fed has got us so encased in cheap paper that is all we can see. Yes gold is good but the powers that be can manipulate it to suit themselves. Gold bugs will go along for the ride once the big boys pull the trigger on it. In the end the little investor always gets a few crumbs.
From my perspective, virtually all of the traditional economic indicators used by the
“brightest minds” are screaming “games over” and the long awaited “correction” or
the truth of our overall situation worldwide is about to impact us with force.
Judgement is merciless once Divine Patience is exhausted. There comes a point of no return for every nation on earht. I fear we are too close for comfort.
Craig I believe that it is too late. That the present administration is not only fooling the fools, but has the Republic in a hand-basket which is being carried down to hell. We are in for some very serious times, and I believe all the markets indicate such.
Al:
FOOLS GOLD
Time to dine. Eat, Drink, and Be Merry for tomorrow your soul will be required. The fools have no concerns beyond self-satisfaction and fulfilling today’s immediate needs/wants. Its what fools are famous for since the beginning of time.
Amen my brother … amen!
What if there was a period of time like 2008 when stocks collapsed but just never came back. I always hear this oh well once things settle down the stocks will recover but what if there was a time when they just did not? Second passport time now?
If you “doom and gloom” people where to study the economic history of America for the last 100 years, you would realize that we are simply coming out of another disastrous period of Republican destruction like the last one that ended in 1932
Doom and gloom huh … well Eagle495 one thing for sure …. time will certainly tell and time she is running out.
I will take your bet also…..
Pay attention to the world markets and you and I my friend shall see how this goes.
I will take your bet……
Well the Democrats this time have run the debt from 8T to 19T. Let’s see how that works out in the long run Eagle495.
Eagle – The current and ongoing problems that the current administration has done over the past 7 years is increase the number of people using Social Security disability, food stamp program near 50%, free cell phones for the poor, etc. Obama last night said all this is great economics when the employment participation rate is at the lowest point in over 50 years. He forgot to mention that most of the jobs that were created in the past 7 years were gov’t jobs or low wage jobs. Where did his “shovel ready” construction jobs go that he promised in the first year? I would hope that the economy has been doing well when the U.S. FED has been printing money without regard to the massive debt our future generations will have to repay or most likely default on. Trump’s voice is only being heard because the US is taking from the working people and giving it to the ones that aren’t. Thanks President Johnson (Democrat) that started the welfare state that has subjected millions to being stuck in poverty for generations.
Same thing happened when FDR was trying to save America from Hoover’s Stock Market Crash and Depression…… Your Grandparents should have told you about it…. They elected him more than any President in history…..
The markets go up and the markets go down!! Right now we have a 6 years up so what’s next . . . a down market?!?! The Fed is moving in baby step[s] up in interest rates: Mmm is this a Greenspan movement[s]? Could be time for short position[s]? If the markets should bounce up there’s two choices: 1. A stop loss or 2. Add to your short position for the next leg down. I watch the Open hour ticks; the volume; the daily averages and last but not least the price movements. After a 1000 pt. drop a bounce up wouldn’t be out of order. Of course that is just my opinion . . .
I agree!
My indicators took me to CASH on the first trading day of January…. The last time they took me to cash on the first trading day of January was January, 2008…… While I think we are going down into a pullback, I highly doubt it will be anything like 2007-2009 as we have a Democratic Administration in power now and they have never had a CRASH in America’s history……
As every Democrat, you fail to realize any lag time between cause and effect.
Then why get out when you have a Democrat in the presidency?
…..think Dent has it right…. ugh. Paul
Yes Paul, ugh is right. Dent thinks that only inflation can drive the price of gold up, while ignoring that crisis can also drive gold up. Dent may also be staring inflation in the eye when all of the world governments realize that the only remaining tool to solve the debt problem is more inflation. And boy do governments need spending to create inflation to pay off their debts, Uncle Sam included. Spending is the one thing governments are very good at. Add to that the three year support line for the price of gold, and now you know why I am a gold bug.
There were 23 vessels in the U.S. gulf waiting to offload 13.1 million barrels as of Thu.
Data suggests the EIA misreported gasoline by 100k bpd for the period ending 1/1.
East coast saw an increase in YoY gasoline imports of 40% for the months Nov and Dec.
Oil is going to $10 below where it was ($18) before Cheney called those meetings of the oil producers and refiners in the early days of their disastrous administration which took oil to $140….. You screw with the supply/demand curve and you get your oily butt handed back to you, just like the Republican Hunt Brothers did when they tried to corner the Silver market so many years ago…… These Right Wing Geniuses seem to learn VERY slowly…. :(
Wells run dry. Exploration and start ups are essential for continuous supply, look at indebted little Miller Energy tapping of an essential full of hope well last winter. Finding it dry. Kaput!
Exploration costs across the industry are being cut to 522 billion for 2016 the lowest in 6 years, on the back of a 22% cost reduction in 2015 of down to 595 billion. This represents the first time two consecutive years of exploration cuts since 1986. Majors CVX, COP plan cuts in 2016. RDS.A to trim some 5 billion.
400k stripper wells are being shut down, just turned off, 140k of them are in Texas. These little wells produce about 2.5 bpd each and net approx. $1800 a month at a cost with transportation of approx. $2k. The shutdown will net a reduction of 400 to 500k bpd. Just in time for Iran to come on line for an estimated bpd amount equal to that of the U.S. strippers.
U.S. production is down 450k bpd compared with April 2015 when production peaked at its highest. The highest since 1970. It cost $19 more than its worth to pull up oil at current levels. Of these prices stay below $35 (squeeze) a reduction of as much as 1 million bpd will be felt by year end. This would go along way to ease supply glut. Start ips dont happen overnight. Big oil has cut back
50 tankers were destroyed in N. Iran by coalition forces over the weekend
Imagine the standard of living in Iran. Glad to be an AMERICAN!
B. Sanders is status quo.
Don’t you mean N. Iraq, david? We are not attacking Iran… yet, anyway. And sometimes over 1000 of those tank trucks haul stolen Iraqi oil into Turkey most every night to sell to members of our ally’s(?) leader’s family to earn money for ISIS. Fifty is just a drop in the bucket.
You are correct about what is happening in America’s oil patch. Enjoy today’s low price at the pump. It will soon begin moving higher.
What’s your source for “Big oil has cut back 50 tankers were destroyed in N. Iran by coalition forces over the weekend.” That is huge news and extremely interesting.
Please advise.
The two depressions inflicted on our country occurred under repub presidents who had business backgrounds. The wingnuts really need to understand how the wingnut handlers like Frank Luntz and others push their hate, anti government buttons to get them to vote against their own best interests. Just look at history and facts. Right wing corporate media is not where you will find facts. Some very powerful interests play the ignorant for fools. Hate brown people or black people, or the government, or Muslims, stay scared, on and on.
How about that!…… :) thanks for pointing out the FACTS Joe!…. :) See Gordon, that is why I was relating Trump to Hitler….. We’ve been here before….. Consider Rove as a modern day Goebbels and it is not so far fetched, aye? Remember George Wallace? Joe Macarthy?
Can we please ban the misleading, partisan, leftist, wacko, slanted hack Eagle495?
What’s scary is that he has a lot of company. The wise Emperor Claudius appointed Nero as his successor, knowing exactly what he was doing. The only way to restore The Republic was to make it painfully obvious the current system wasn’t working. The result was extensive reform that put Rome on the right path for many years. Let’s hope the election of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren accomplishes the same end. Jim
Really. Lots of Republican administrations, Eisenhower, (with high upper tax rates), Nixon, Ford, Reagan,Bush I, these did not see a crash. What is this idea about Democratic prosperity, how about Carter, now Obama, with soaring entitlement spending and taking in immigrants instead of taking care of our own? You call the debt of Obama prosperity? Don’t blame crashes on the GOP, sure Bush II prevailed over the deficits and disaster of his war against Saddam, with the blessing of the Dems who believed him. This train of thought is derailed, bud.
The Right Wing Wacko’s always wants to BAN someone….. Notice how Trump deals with those who disagree with him? Hitler did much the same
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but the relentless political rant is most annoying. This is a financial bog not political so please stuff the repetitive and biased political rants into a different arena.
Life in America is one endless political rant about any and every subject you can think of, as you see here. The food you eat, the car you drive, your thermostat setting, the weather, and even investing are all fair game, unfortunately. The fact you have an extra dollar to invest makes you a target of political envy. You must not be paying your fair share. I hate it too. Jim
Ron
Very well said. We could help each other make money if only ears would listen.
“Poor Dumb Rich People by Alan Grayson: New York Times Go look….. You may not agree, but do the study to see if what he tells you is truth or not, aye? 167 times more total income under the Left wing Pinko, Communist Democrats that under the Republicans since 1929…… I’d call that pretty substantial, wouldn’t you? Amazing what happens when the government looks out for the 97% and grows the Middle Class, aye?
If you don’t think the economy is affected by politics, Ron, you had best stay out of investing. Everything is fair game for politicians, including your money. Especially your money.
i imagine politics will be discussed on this site well into november. then back to the usual stuff.
Ron that is because politics is annoying due to its influence on money and the influence of money on politics. Everyone on this blog is just as much annoyed about politics as you are; but at least they see the connection.
Mike, what critical levels are you talking about; because the sloping long term support lines were breached last August 2015 as I see it. Any support based on August lows would be looking at a support line only hanging around for about five months. So yes there may be a bounce due, but such a bounce would need more to confirm it is not just a dead cat bounce in my opinion.
The way I see it:
Deflationary environment till 2019 – Stock indexes mostly down
Slow inflation begins around 2017-18 – Gold bullion/gold shares do well
Faster to hyper-inflation from 2019-2023 – Gold bullion shortage makes gold fly – stock indexes begin to recover
2023 to 2035 – New commodities cycle to the upside- Gold stabilizes at 5-7,500/oz
Business cycle normalizes – Stock indexes rise
Your progression could be about right, but the schedule may a bit faster than that; Inflation could come while money is scarce for most people. Civil unrest?
What about all the rumors of a buyout of $RLYP?
Mike/ I’m concerned that your recommendations conflict with the quality given in Weiss Ratings. Today you buying FXY (Yen ETF) despite rated at D-, and Put Leaps on GM rated B.
Furthermore I’ve been holding PartnerRe (PRE) as a solid investment since last summer not recommend by you but with the re-assurance that Weiss held an A rating on it only for it in November suddenly to be dropped 4 levels to B- overnight without any explanation. Looks like ratings may not be regularly reviewed on an ongoing basis and possibly be well out of date. Perhaps each rating should have a last review date displayed? Mike, who should we rely on – you or Weiss Ratings?
Just how reliable are these ratings, especially as you appear to ignore them without explanation in you own recommendation? In future, should there appear to be a conflict, may I suggest that you declare at the time and explain your reasoning
You have to wake up who ever leads your country will be told what to do by the powers that run the world, they has most governments around the world are puppets, except for the ones the usa want to bomb.
Mr. Eagle, you sound knowledgeable with your logic regarding the market. However if you are right and Bernie gets in with Warren as a VP and the market takes off giving tons of money to investors, the country or the money you make won’t be worth the down slide in collapsing what used to be a republic. Maybe you agree with their direction. I don’t. I’d give back all the money I’ve ever made in the market to see the destroyers of freedom go back where they came from. Who wants to be a ruler in Hell. A great research firm recommended Monsanto, a great pick. But will you sacrifice integrity for money. Or doesn’t that bother you? If you lose your soul what good is money? Unless you believe we have no soul.
Both parties have introduced policies that have worked to destroy individual freedom in the name of security and preserving the nation. Remember, absolute freedom means there is no security; absolute security means there is no freedom. We need a balance of the two, but we are letting the politicians move us in the direction of security with reduced freedom. They buy votes, that way.
Richard,
In the end, it has to do with looking out for the 97% and that stopped happening after the Republican Revolution from 1981-2009 as millions of good paying Middle Class jobs were sent overseas at the behest of the Republican Party who have sold out to the 3% whom they get the majority of their political donations from….
Economically, it has to do with Income Inequity….. It goes up during Republican periods of domination as the 3% get richer and the 97% get poorer, the velocity of money goes down as the 97% has less money to spend…..
In a nut shell that is why the average annual return under Democratic Administrations has been 10% since 1929 while the returns under Republican administrations has been 0.4% annually…. Really is that simple…
Mr. Eagle, I just read your comment on the Hunt Brothers and silver. You have your facts wrong. I just lost respect for your knowledge as I see you really don’t know what you’re talking about. You have the story backwards. The Hunt brothers were screwed by your favorite team. Sell propaganda not stock predictions, it suits you better. Ron, unfortunately political beliefs are tied to investment beliefs as who has the power writes the story. It’s very sad that most believe in the two parties which are nothing more than two heads on the same dog playing good guy bad guy, it’s a clever game and you’ll have to be more clever to see through it and who is pulling both of their strings. But figure that out and decipher the agenda and you’ll see where we’re headed.
Gee Richard,…
Try Wikipedia or Google for the facts about the Hunt Brothers unless you consider those sites as subversive, left wing, Commi Pinko sites, aye?
Mike,
I think you are right on the technical side.
Right now all news in the US seems to be losing confidence since everywhere growth is slowing the EU rules are being broken. One bond failure and the EU is over. Governments across Eurasia the Mideast and South America are losing their funding due to oil’s collapse. Slowing growth globally is pervasive and scary.
It pretty much looks like what has been billed as the Fed’s “miraculous rescue” now looks like the world’s Achilles heel.
Maybe Eagle495 can explain for us all how the Democrats were such geniuses in loading up the debt before the collapse.
What in the world are you talking about?
You know Eagle495 to read your posts you seem to be living on a different planet, one totally void of reality…you’re playing with statistics (your statistics) that always seem to make you right and everyone else wrong. It’s easy to say you lack greatly in diversity as well as the truth…all valid and well known traits of misleading leftists! Answer Al McNals question Eagle495…it’s a good one…show us how much you really know about Democrat’s/Republicans and who’s responsible…this could be a real laugh-er…
Study history genius….. Or keep believing the right wing screamers….. Good luck with the latter…… :(
Eagle495 must be from around Boston’s outer beltway (I-495) since his politics mimic a chowder head named Ted Kennedy. Even Ted may have admitted that who is in power (Dem. or Rep.) has very little influence over the economy. The Federal Reserve has more influence, yet in the world economy of which we live in, even the Fed is not all that influential. Lastly, I would say that the markets did well under Clinton in the 1990’s by happenstance and certainly not not by design and definitely not due to policy!