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Even as friends and neighbors here in Florida dig themselves out of the largest storm we’ve seen in over a decade, I worry about how our country will dig itself out of the most divisive election in over a century.
With the possible exception of the Civil War years, never before have the hard stats shown such extreme polarization in America’s politics and society! (See Black Swan #3 in this article.)
Never before have so many American voters harbored such extreme sentiments of distrust, dislike — even outright disgust — for the two major party candidates for president!
And never before has a presidential election itself, regardless of the outcome, been so potentially dangerous for investors!
Consider just the immediate outcomes …
- If Clinton takes the White House, she will be ferociously attacked by Republicans, liberal Democrats, and most of Middle America.
- If it’s Trump, the attacks could be equally fierce from Democrats, traditional Republicans and most of the Washington/New York establishment.
Either candidate will be under siege, unable to govern.
In desperation, both are likely to circumvent the standard channels of presidential power … lose the support of most Americans … face popular rebellions … and even become the targets of impeachment movements.
How would that domestic strife impact U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar?
What would it do to the U.S. ecomomy?
What about contra-dollar investments like silver, gold, collectibles and other hard currencies?
Before I jump to the answers, let me give you a quick survey of how other analysts see America’s post-election future (along with my critique of each) …
Forbes: Gridlock or Trumplock?
Forbes contributor Thomas Del Beccaro predicts that …
1. If Hillary wins …
- Washington gridlock will intensify. She will govern like Obama in his last six years — “through regulations, executive orders and a compliant Supreme Court.”
- Maybe she will squeeze through a fix for Obamacare because Republicans also want it. But beyond that, expect little or nothing in terms of new legislation.
- Government spending (plus private spending needed to cope with government regulations) is already half of the U.S. economy and growing. Four years from now, it will be even worse.
- The economy will continue on the same weak-growth path, Fed policies will be very similar, and the stock market, which actually likes government gridlock, will continue to drift higher.
2. Meanwhile, he predicts that if Trump wins …
- Government gridlock will ease — for better or for worse. More legislation will come out of the Senate. But don’t necessarily assume it will be government reform. It could also be just more
- If Trump can build a coalition, he might get tax reform and better prospects for long-term GDP growth. But if he starts a trade war, he could drive the economy into a decline.
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When the K Wave crashes into the American economy … You’ll either be one of the lucky few who are rich and secure; or one of the millions who are hungry, desperate, and afraid. Now you might be tempted to say, “Dow 31,000 sounds pretty good to me, Larry, I’ll just hold onto my U.S. stocks and watch them double in value.” In other words, you might be tempted to sit tight and do nothing. But sitting tight is the worst thing you could do, for three reasons … to find out what those reasons are click here before it’s too late! -Larry Edelson |
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My critique: All this may sound logical. But it misses the big elephant in the room: The ongoing disintegration of the nation’s social fabric — worsening income inequality, civil and ethnic strife, and, unfortunately, violence.
End result: With rare exceptions,
- If the next president takes little or no action to mend the country, the social fabric will naturally continue to unravel.
- And …
- If the next president is more assertive at any level, at least half the nation will react angrily, tearing the country apart more quickly.
Lindsey Group: Bear market
Peter Bookckvar, Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group, says the market’s headed south, no matter who wins. His views:
- Wall Street is wrong. Investors seem to think Hillary Clinton would be better for markets due to the relative certainty she brings to the table, whether good or bad. In reality, it won’t matter.
- Bear market long overdue. We are already in the second longest bull market of all time, eight years so far. So odds are high that the next president will preside over a recession, a bear market and rising deficits.
- Asset bubble. We are in the midst of the third major asset price bubble in the past 15-20 years; and it’s the biggest one ever, mostly in sovereign and corporate bonds. Therefore, the behavior of central bankers and the influence of global interest rates will be the main driver of asset prices over the next four years, not the next president.
- Economy. The next president will have to deal with a GDP growth rate that has now slowed to about 1.5 percent. Any decline in stock prices, among other factors, could easily drive the U.S. economy into a recession.
My critique: This author makes rational arguments but doesn’t mention what we believe could be the overriding factor: The Global Money Tsunami, which, for now at least, continues to drive massive amounts of flight capital from trouble spots around the globe to U.S. markets. (More on this in a moment.)
The Street.com: It’s all about taxes and sectors.
Leon Lazaroff, writing for The Street.com, sees the following impacts of a Clinton victory:
- Banks. Clinton clearly wants be tougher on Wall Street banks. She knows that 67% of U.S. voters favor stricter regulation of financial institutions and even 58% of Republicans want to toughen Wall Street oversight. Possible consequences: (1) Some version of the Volcker Rule aimed at discouraging banks from making risky investments, and (2) a “risk fee” on the liabilities of banks with more than $50 billion in assets.
- Taxes. Under Clinton, expect higher taxes on the rich, including these three: (1) An end to the “carried interest loophole,” the provision that allows money managers and hedge fund operators to treat fees on their clients’ investments as capital gains; (2) higher taxes on short-term capital gains; and (3) a 4% surcharge on people earning more than $5 million.
- Pharma. Clinton has already rolled out a plan to lower prescription drug costs. Yes, it may lower prices, but it could also rock pharmaceutical companies.
- Trade. Clinton helped to negotiate an agreement with Mexico and Pemex to open drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico. She also supported TTP. Right now, none of this is politically popular. But despite any campaign rhetoric one way or the other, she’s likely to support agreements that boost trade and open foreign markets for U.S. corporations.
Bloomberg: Fed overhaul
Jeanna Smialek, writing for Bloomberg, argues that the Fed may be headed for a shakeup, whether under Clinton or Trump.
Clinton has called for greater diversity at the U.S. central bank. Trump has been vague on how the Fed should change, but has slammed it for keeping interest rates so low.
Meanwhile, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have proposed legislation in recent years to limit the central bank’s authority, such as an annual audit.
Even if they pass no new laws, the new president can change the Fed with new appointments: The terms of both Yellen and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer expire in 2018, and there are already two vacancies on the seven-member Fed Board in Washington.
Another possibility, according to this author: If Trump wins, Yellen might resign.
Cato Institute: More wars under Clinton
Many analysts and voters see Trump as a warmonger and risk to national security. They cite his comments on NATO, nuclear weapons and more.
But many also see Clinton in a similar light. Cato senior fellow Doug Barndow, for example, provides a list of Clinton’s actions and views regarding military conflicts:
- While she was first lady, Clinton pushed for U.S. intervention in the Balkans, attacking the Bosnian Serbs and then Serbia.
- As a senator, she backed the Iraq invasion.
- Clinton supported the Obama administration’s decision to double down, twice, on its nation-building mission in Afghanistan.
- She was partly responsible for America’s Libyan misadventure, another attempt at regime change on the cheap.
- Her insistence on the ouster of Syria’s President Bashar Assad discouraged a negotiated settlement.
- Clinton advocated lethal aid to Syrian rebels, who displayed a tendency to surrender and turn weapons over to radical groups.
- She later urged direct U.S. military intervention in the form of a “no-fly” zone.
- Clinton backed NATO expansion up to Russia’s borders, which poisoned bilateral ties.
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Our view: As Larry Edelson has predicted clearly and repeatedly, a powerful war cycle is ramping up through the year 2020, and it’s this cycle that’s often driving global events — not individual decision makers.
Thus, in the 1990s, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and even Vladimir Putin were far more dovish. Fast forward two decades to the world after 9/11, the Crimea, Paris attacks and Syria … and those same three individuals are far more likely to threaten, join or even initiate major conflicts.
So much for the survey of other analysts and opinions. Now, here again is …
The Big Elephant in the Room: U.S. Domestic Instability
Never forget: Until now, global investors have viewed the U.S. markets as the world’s largest and most liquid safe haven.
Whenever they’ve fled turmoil overseas, they’ve consistently moved money into high-quality U.S. stocks, real estate and businesses.
It’s this tide of flight capital that has been a big driver of the Dow to all-time highs.
It’s this capital flow that’s helped stimulate a recovery in the U.S. real estate market.
And it’s this tide which we have called the Great Money Tsunami.
But it’s also a tide that could begin to reverse as we see more civil and political strife in the United States.
Indeed, when he warned about the war cycle over three years ago, Larry also declared that, at some point, it would also include U.S. domestic unrest.
At the time, many investors felt this aspect of his forecast was unbelievable. Others thought it was wildly premature. Some simply said he was nuts.
Suddenly, however, it’s a vision that’s widely accepted …
- If Trump is elected, 65% of voters, including many Trump supporters, think there will be race riots, according to a Lincoln Leadership Initiative poll.
- In the context of a Clinton win, two-thirds of Republicans say they will distrust election results. Worse, “American conservatives may have to resort to physical violence to protect their values from liberalism,” says Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin.
Look. Regardless of whom you support, you cannot deny that the tide of violence — and threats of more — are no longer just theory. They’re real and tangible.
We know that active shooters are appearing more randomly, more frequently, and alas, more tragically.
We know that there is growing venom and strife between black and white, rich and poor, old and young, coast and heartland.
If this trend continues, step by step, the U.S. could lose its safe-haven luster. Global investors could cast the U.S. into virtually the same category as other “let’s-get-the-heck-out-of-here” regions of the world.
And in that scenario …
- U.S. long-term government bond prices, 80% supported by foreign investors, could fall.
- The U.S. stock market would turn south.
- U.S. real estate — one of the prime beneficiaries of massive capital inflows from Europe, China, Russia and Latin America — could sink anew.
- The bull market in the U.S. dollar would end.
- And contra-dollar investments like gold would begin a major ascent.
But these are just the financial consequences of growing domestic turmoil. In the long term, economic and cultural schisms that are already sweeping the nation could fracture American society like never before.
Unless you have a concrete self-defense plan, investing could become a nightmare. Unless you know how to find the true safe havens in the world today, you could lose not only money, but also your peace of mind.
Thank God if I’m wrong! But if I’m right, my team and I are dedicated to helping you through it with a solid plan for your financial and physical safety.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
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Hopei for the best with help from God.Thank you Gerry Haliburda
Dear Martin
I would like us all to consider this election at a different level. The status quo is being threatened by a non Politian accused of being many things and some of it is true. The democratic establishment have picked a less than creditable contender with a long record of low achievement. Behind the scenes, the elite media and influential lobbyists, want to protect their perks and positions of power in Washington. They are pitting themselves against a peoples uprising that wants a collapse in political and economic globalism. Either way debt will beat both candidates. For the economy to improve, we must have people power and a reset away from central bank influence. If we can’t achieve this change in economic modelling, it doesn’t matter who wins. Many will be doomed.
Howard. You are so right. Debt may or will destroy either candidate. I am definitely against politicians. Trump has good business intentions. Whether he can carry them through will be a economic miracle. Personally, I think we still have a chance to change things for the better. If not then we will face another Civil War and this one will be bloodier then the last. Once again the same causes i.e. racism, economics, states rights, personal and religious liberty, and last but not least the right to life which will involve the pro-life movement involving abortion and euthanasia.
Keith, thanks for your post. I agree with all you have said, however, the causes need to be taken to another level. Try this on for size. From the “People” side, the Racism, taking away Rights of Personal Liberty and including the Right of Free Speech, the Right to Pursue Happiness and to obtain Property, Right to a Fair Trial and Due Process, lands us right in the COURTS and possibly Jail/Prison. Unfair and unlawful acts committed in the Judicial System are denial of Rights. These are the SEEDS of DOMESTIC TERRORISM of which I speak below in my comments. (Scroll down.) Those practicing “POLITICAL CORRECTNESS” i.e. Prosecutors, Judges, Clerks of Courts, and State Employees working in Local, Municipal, and Others (Contract workers hired by these entities) are denying the People their Rights under the Bill of Rights. This is also Seeds of Domestic Terrorism. How so? When a Victim in these circumstances is targeted, the Victim becomes a Pawn and is helpless under these “tactics” where the Laws are corrupted to fit Agendas and Statutes are misused/manipulated by Prosecutors and Judges. The Victim may not know what has happened to him/her for some time as FRAUD has been done. When the Victim becomes aware, the Bag of Tricks is exposed and the Victim begins to tell others of his/her plight. The “SEEDS” work their way out into SOCIETY where they take root, i.e. Ferguson, Missouri, Baltimore, Maryland, Detroit, Michigan, Oakland, California, Dallas, Texas, Chicago, Illinois, Boston, Mass. and many more states. All the trouble goes back to Judicial Misconduct and Vague Statutes implemented by Corrupt and Vicious Minds and Big Money. The Poisonous Idealogy coming from such people and the Propaganda they spread throughout the country via the Mainstream Media needs to be stopped. These people have worked their way into our Congress, Courts, Professions, and Society. Our Society and Way of Life in America have been contaminated, poisoned. This will lead to a Revolution, Civil War of some sort, and the Financial Disaster along with it will be too much to bear. I pray to God to save us from the greatest Catastrophy ever to befall us.
hope and hope again your wrong,but the writing seems to have been written on the wall.
Asset prices . Look at real estate back to bubble highs of several years ago.
All the buyers of real estate for the past 4 years past will be under water when the bubble bursts.
Look at the stock market almost non existent profits but it grinds higher. Another asset driven higher by the federal reserve.
If the Federal Reserve looks in the mirror they will and they do know what is going on.
We need a Federal Reserve Chairman that can influence the President ,the congress and senate to pass tax legislation that can and will stimulate the economy because they are out of bullets as they say.
I could run the Federal Reserve drop interest rates to zero , it takes someone with brains to do something different , it sure is not with Bernanki or Yellen.
Day,s of reckoning may be long in coming, but they most assuredly come. The USA has played the meddling card throughout the entire world politik, squandering reputation, wealth and morality……yes, retribution takes a long time, perhaps our day approaches and this may be the triggering event.
Meddling it is. Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Iran, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia, countries in which meddling has caused nothing but trouble. Only exception Kuwait, where they should have withdrawn immediatey after Saddam was kicked out. They didn’t.
with kuwait – the dude saddam (dear me – the word means “victor”) – was prompted to invade by uncle sam
Great analysis Dr. Weiss. I share your concerns if the U.S. could lose its safe-haven status.
But where will all that money go? Or will it evaporate when all of the bubbles go bust?
Indebtedness has driven many countries to desperation. Ireland is such a country. My hatred sorry to use this word but I must for big business is just behind that that I have for politicians. My sainted grandmother always said never say hate always say you do not like their ways but today is not yesterday. This fiasco in Ireland has really got my dander up. The IRS wants their pound of flesh from the little guy at every turn yet Facebook who now calls Ireland their home like so many other huge corporations including Apple dodge taxes thanks to the cutthroat dog in the manager competition among world countries for income. Facebook as I understand it for the last taxation year had a skyrocketing increase in profits yet received a tax deferral/credit from the Irish government. Then they have the nerve to say that they have abided by the tax rules of the country. Astounding!!!!! Big Business prostitutes in lieu of a much harsher term for them that would be more applicable.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-apples-wake-facebooks-tax-arrangements-in-ireland-raises-questions-1472584789
Soon Democratic leaders and a Democratic Congress will return the tax rates to where they were before Reagan gave those huge cuts to the wealthiest 3%, which sent our deficit to the moon and we will begin to pay our deficit down, slowly…
Only if the rich decide those tax increases are fair.Otherwise,they will rearrange their affairs,legally or otherwise,to avoid the tax increases.Just because YOU think someone else should be taxed more,doesn’t mean the persons being taxed,feel the same.If the rich feel there is too much risk and cost to invest,they may decide to hide out in gold or other assets,not investing to create jobs.Wouldn’t be good for the economy.
kinda hard when barack insane obama adds 2.5 trillion every year to the national debt the last few yrs
Yes Facebook wins the Golden Global Greed award for the week.
Dr. Weiss,
Thank you for doing what you do..
Kind Regards,
Glenn Melcher
Racial tensions will rise no matter which candidate wins. Why? Because the turmoil is created and encouraged by the Left. Remember what their philosophy is….’never let a crisis go to waste. You can do things you wouldn’t otherwise be able do to’. (may not be word for word but close enough). The Left will create a crisis so they can take advantage of it….look no further than open borders as well as releasing criminals into the public, and inviting so called refugees into the country when there is no data available to screen them…..and then the multiple crises that causes which they will use as a means to institute regulations and laws by executive order that would never pass a legislative process. Having said that, will it scare off the money tsunami? Probably not, since we’ll still look better that the rest….it’s all relative.
Martins assessment is as right as one can be in a world where “bias” is a fast and growing media sport. It is comforting to have Real World information.. it’s becoming soooo hard to get. TY
These articles are always so informative. There are also very well written.
Martin, Am I wrong or did you fail to mention what foreign currencies look safer from now thru 2020??? I send this question almost monthly to you, Larry, and the others – never get an answer! I live in Europe as do other of your readers and the Euro is going down, no doubt. What can you say??? What is the address/name of the European version of your newsletter?? William
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Unless you are a paid subscriber you can expect no direct answer from Larry. Once in awhile Larry gives a free snapshot of stock or precious metals market cycles to everyone just to prove his sincerity, but its not a regular occurrence by any means. Incidentally, this is true of any newsletter, paid or free. You have to be an actual “client” for (legal) financial advice to be given or the SEC can shut him down.
So, its very much a liability and regulatory issue to a large extent too, real or perceived. Along with the political “Balkanization” of America, we have traditional financial parochialism, as well. Nowhere is this more evident than in the financial services industry. This may have to change as more brokerages and banks move to further implement automation of customer functions and further develop “Robo-Advisors” to offer low cost “advice”.
Branch layoffs and closings are going to gain momentum nationally across the board in the next five years. The continuation of negative or low interest rates and single digit total market annual returns will fuel this trend going forward. As it is, you can expect to pay at least 1% of net assets for any “advice”, even from low-cost Vanguard (Live Advisors).
Most retail investors are on their own unless they have substantial assets and the options that go along with it. Its not unlike concierge (care) medicine vs. Kaiser ( HMO’s). Further division of America into those who have to take what they can get and those who retain true personal choice. For the vast majority of the Middle Class, future options may become much more narrow and limited, by design. Squeeze Play.
Ask yourself, which is the safest country in the world and you have your answer….. It is America and it is the American dollar now and in the future…
Both Trump and Clinton are autocrats.. They will do whatever they can to rule from the throne, even more than Obama has. Not only that, but they have a huge, professional military at their backs. They will not hesitate to call upon it for support against any sign of revolt from the populace. The worst mistake Congress ever made, was to end conscription, which would have weakened the ability of the military to blindly support the ruling authority, since a citizen military would have been divided.
THE “UNITARY” PRESIDENT ( 2000- Present ).
Yep. The cliche’ of a “Do Nothing Congress” ( due to perpetual gridlock and lack of any kind of political consensus in America) is the key to our State of the Union. Therefore, any President who refers to his actions as reflecting “The Will of The People” is disingenuous, and more accurately reflects the will of Large Corporations, large donors ( special interests), Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Oligarchs, at home and abroad ( Clinton Foundation).
I predict a continuation of this political trend with the gradual emergence of a dictator or emperor of sorts in a few more presidential election cycles. Many of our cherished civil liberties are probably not long for this world, especially with the next crop of U.S. Supreme Court justices. True conservatives are being marginalized at many levels. They are actually becoming an “endangered species” in America today.
A member of the armed forces takes the following oath: “I, (state name of enlistee), do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”
The first duty of anyone in the military is to support and defend the Constitution. They are to obey lawful orders given by their superiors “according to the regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice.” They are not required to follow unlawful orders, whoever issues them. There is no political unity in the military, though, in general, members of the military tend to be more conservative. As a retired military officer, I find your remarks misinformed and insulting.
That’s a very bleak and discouraging critique.
It seems frighteningly clear that “if” either candidate is elected, our once proud country may be ripped apart. Perhaps this is the time, “We, the People,” make a stand against the political acrimony and governmental gridlock that has plagued America recently. Why couldn’t the fearful and frustrated masses armed with mobile phones, tablets, and laptops come together via social media networks to create a write-in ticket of, by, and for us? People like Howard Schultz, Bill and/or Melinda Gates, and Oprah Winfrey are respected for their trustworthiness, business acumen, and social good deeds. Aren’t these the ideal qualities Americans everywhere expect from their leaders? Further, should such a “revolutionary movement” like the one I’m suggesting begin to take wings, the news media will have something refreshing to report in support of our cause. After 240 years, seems this country is ripe for The Second American Revolution!
Martin,
Welcome back from your recent travels.
You and I are the same age, and without a doubt this is the most contentious election in our Life, bar none. America has become a seriously divided nation – and no one on the current stage has the capacity to bring us together. …hang on!
Maybe we will “Balkanize” as the Russian professor suggested a few years ago.
In any case, I urge your (and your readership) to review “The Fourth Turning” (Howe&Strauss, 12/1997). It may not suggest alternatives or solutions, but it may help us understand the current situation in the context of historic cycles.
Prepare for a bumpy ride….
THE DOWNSIDE TO EXCESSIVE DIVERSITY AND AFFLUENCE
America the Divided. We are divided in so many ways and at so many levels, having little in common with each other and little close affiliation. Loyalties are in flux, often going to the highest bidder. Confidence is ebbing. Most working people could care less about “politics” and are instead focused on personal survival or well-being, largely out of necessity. Many neighbors have pretty much “circled the wagons” and only venture out to work or visit relatives.
All in all, we have retreated into our own private reality or bubble, closing-out the outside world. America has decidedly turned inward. Protectionism is a manifestation of this established trend at the individual and local level. Global Trade declines also reflect this trend in other nations. Nationalism is on the rise and with it, the greater potential for serious wars in the future.
The trend of war, terrorism, and unpleasantness will end one day after the wars have been fought and a new order is established by the new victors. This trend takes some time. Existing nations may not survive intact over the next 16 years. No givens that any particular nation will necessarily be around in 20 years. Few assumptions either, as everything and everyone is in play.
North America is not as protected by foreign enemies as it once was by two oceans back in the 1700’s or 1800’s. Today, we are exposed to modern technology. So what happens in Las Vegas does not stay in Las Vegas anymore. We are much more networked and mobile today. The same old strategies don not work anymore, as we have been finding out the hard way in recent years.
It is unfortunate that there are no good expectations from this presidential election. It is also unfortunate that Larry Edelson may be correct – I hope not. Thanks Martin for sharing this with us.
What is happening to the two candidates.
They just attacking each other. What the
point debating on something which happened more than ten years ago ? Get
tired hearing and seeing them on TV on
all channels. I am sure US citizens don’t
enjoy the daily news.
Dr Weiss I like your writings. There must
be more people like you. Good luck to you.
This report reminds me of someting between “1984” and “Brave New World”…. It appears that all fo the sources you quoted are either right wing or financial organizations that don’t want regulation……
They had there way in 1999 and got the Republican majority Congress to remove Glass-Steagall which had protected the country for roughly 60 years from the abuses that brought 1929…… Within 8 years beginning in November 2007, we had 1929 all over again……
Despite what your sources said, the truth is that the stock market has performed about 400 times better bewtween 1929 and 2012 under the leadership of Democratic Administations than under Republicancan domination. That period was chosen because there were roughly the same number of each administrations…..
Also, despite the wealthiest 3% spending billions to keep their lackies in office, the choice of Trump as thier candidate could, alone, easily cause the Republicans to lose big time in the Congressional races……
Might I remind you that the period of greatest economic and manufacturing growth, the greatest growth of living standards for the average American and the grestest growth of the Middle Class happened between 1932 and 1982 during a period of mostly Democratic leadrship…. Since the “Republican Revolution, the Middle Class has gottne crushed….
One of the greatest rules I learned in an MBA class years ago was: “As Income Inequity goes down the velocity of money increases and the economy flourishes and as Income Inequity goes up, the velocity of money falls and the economy faulters”…… Historically, Income Inequity has fallen during Democratic leadership and increased under Republican domination….
Plain and simple, in old fashioned words: There are not enough “worker bees” left, to pay for all of the “give me bees” wanting their… entitlements.
Don’t listen to lil eaglet, he’s a paid Soros Alysinkyite, spouting falsehoods to bolster the lyin democraps. Shah Gilani and others have clearly, with documentation, shown that the repeal of Glass-Steagall was done by Robert Rubin and Democraps. So don’t believe his drivel. His so-called stats are skewed garbage. He doesn’t count all of the wars (WWII, Korea, Vietnam, the Balkans, the recent Afgani war) that democraps entered (and caused) that bolstered the economy, while Republicans were left in the transition back to peacetime plus unwinding the bloated military spending. So, was all of the brave, dead young men fostered by Democrap policies worth a few extra numbers on GDP? Not at all, my friends!
Eddy,
You’ve been spending far too much time in your trailer in the woods…… While you are learning to spell, you might want to try getting your intelligence from someplace other than Faux news, aye? You are badly misinformed….. :(
and you eagle495 youve bragged you got your information from the huffington post
Money velocity increases because people who do not earn money (welfare and entitlements) spend it as fast as it is received. Wage earners tend to save and invest for future needs such as retirement. If all you want is velocity, load the helicopters.
Sir, you did not mention the “week-end-warriors” hiding out in the forest around the country. They have stolen armaments from National Guard units and have been trained by former Special Forces experts. Essentially, they are the new KKK. They number about 200K-300K! More than 100K, according to the FBI have joined since President Obama was elected. This is the group that I fear! Your are in a better position to research this situation than me.
I was skeptical of your statements. But I did find a story of FBI warning of KKK infiltrating the police. That is certainly very frightening.
I’m an old Special Forces soldier who has served both Active Duty and with the National Guard……. Those groups you mentoned are relatively a “pimple on a nat’s butt”! They can run all over the National Forests, but if they ever do anything harmful to this country, they will be snuffed in a heartbeat….
Our country is at greater risk from the Chinese and the Russians who still dream of ruling the world in a huge Communist Dictatorship… Sadly, our right wing politicians brought this on by moving most of our Manufacturing overseas hoping to make their handlers billions on the backs of Chinese labor. Sadly, those wealthy individuals did not give the Chinese their due consideration as the Chinese soon siezed those plants….
That said, soon smarter left wing politicians who love all of America will begin programs aimed at “America First” practices that will bring “Made In America” buying policies and the right wing casued military problem will evaporate as manufacturing return to America…
Some of you might think that a pipe dream.. All I can do is tell you to just “wait and see” as it is rapidly becoming in Ameria’s interest to rein in the developing Chinese military threat or make plans for WW-lll….. As we used to say: “We can do it the smart way or the hard way”…
Who says they are the new KKK? I look at them as protectors of liberty and the last hope against tyranny.
Whaaat the hell? Where are they hiding? Can I join? Conspiracy theorist gone wild.
the only week end warriors are the national guard your comment makes no sense
Derivatives. Derivatives. Derivatives. Too many are generating return with leverage. We are on the edge. Hope the Fed is right. If not…
HISTORIC TRENDS MAY PREDICT FUTURE RISKS
It has been said that trends, whether in specific stock market sectors or in society are durable. I would tend to agree that established trends tend to be for years ( long term), as they gain momentum. Nowhere is this more evident than concerning jurisdictions with a history of chronically poor or corrupt government and a host of economic and social problems (conflicts).
On this basis, I can almost predict the cities or states most vulnerable to a rising tide of civil unrest or disturbances (riots). Just start with all cities which have already experienced racial conflicts and/or riots for any reason. Add to these locations those known to have had one party governing for years and years, establishing a pattern of corruption.
The corrosive effects of bad government take time to corrode, but now, the rust is evident. So I do expect “lightning to strike twice” in the same places in the next few years. The precedents are quite strong allowing one to make some educated guesses. Personally, I would try to avoid these particular locations at all costs.
This does not mean that other, previously unaffected locations/regions are not vulnerable to spot-riots at some point in the future. It does mean jurisdictions with better economies, ethnic mixes, or relatively effective government can remain more stable and therefore, relatively safer places in which to live.
Dear Martin: The creation of the FED was based on highly obscure manipulations, one of them being its carefully chosen, purposedly confusing name. The majority of people thinks it´s a central bank and a governmental institution, both of which IT IS NOT. The FED is a 100% PRIVATE INSTITUTION, owned by huge banks, owner of big banks, whose sole purpose is to defend their interests. USA doesn´t need the FED, but those banks do. The protection of the national Economy, inflation and interest rates amongst many other very important related subjects, must be controlled by the Government itself. There are many interesting articles on the subject (Shah Gilany, Michael Lewit etc…) Best Regards,
This was an enjoyable read. I have come to the same conclusions.
Banks. Clinton clearly wants be tougher on Wall Street banks. Clinton, by taking $21 million in fees from the big WSBs’, is in their hip pocket. As she told them, there is private positions, and there are public positions, as she explained to them. She told them, there would be a lot of political rhetoric, but to pay no attention to that. Thanks to Obama, Hillary nd John Kerry, the middle east is in chaos.. Hillary, last night, blamed Russia, Iran, for chaos in Syria. Under those three, Iran was totally enabled fiscally, and lifting of sanctions, allowed to become nuclear and capable of delivering nuclear war headed missiles in 12-18 months. In other words, all hell will break out as WWIII. Inspection team can not have any American on it. Must have 24 days notice, and certain areas are off limits. So, they (investigations) are worthless. America is now fiscally and morally bankrupt and no man or woman will turn that big ship around. Now Carpe Diem.
There is no doubt that the USA has nominated two of the most bizarre candidates in history. But why? Hillary, probably because the democratic party is totally controlled by an old boys/girls club and Donald because the republican party is not. How is it possible in a country as large as the US that neither major party could put up a credible contender? Certainly not because of the fact that as Hillary exclaimed last night that America is “good” but rather quite the opposite. America is essentially self centered and selfish. It is driven by a mentality that emphasizes “winning” at all cost. Hence all the human failings possible are contained deeply within its two major candidates. These people are simply a reflection of the American elite and upper middle class. If one looks back in history you will find that every major society eventually falls into the moral abyss and evolves out of relevance. It takes decades for the process to complete but America is well on its way. The current economic conditions probably won’t change much in the short term as there is no reason for the economy to grow and no place for all the money in the world to go except to support social programs through taxes. The only way out is for the “1%” to adopt a new morality and pay off the debt, look after its failing middle class and rebuild a society based on sharing more of its wealth. A tall order when the group at the top wants to hang onto what its got and the group at the bottom wants to get its “fair share” without any effort. Human failing being what it is, history has shown that the only solution is a long slow decline with a new leader emerging to take its place. The question this time is where will that new leader come from? The only other solution is another catastrophic war.
Concentrate on the down ballot elections. Four years of deadlock, or near so, is a small price to pay for a repeat of the last eight. Jim Allen: Their numbers are inflated by their false bravado. I fear them far less than an all powerful government. The crazies can be easily identified and dealt with.
The big elephant in the room: It is not US domestic instability. Although the US economy is in trouble, this issue is a much bigger one that you hve alluded to.
The money trail leads us to the Money Cartel, also referred to as Deep State and Shadow Government, at the top of the money chain. The Cartel policy is simple: control money and you control the government of a country. Those making up the Cartel control the lending of money [ currency] to the big or central banks of a country. Voting may elect a political government but it does not control the money in a country! So … if you do not change the strangle hold the money cartel has on the US economy and the world, all the gossip on this artcle is meaningless!
For more on this go to: http://www.freegrab.net/currency_vs_stock_market.htm
No one, but no one mentions the importance of the more vivid congressional and senate elections in 2016 and 2018. If these elections do not change congress and senate, we will have gridlock. Neither Trump nor Clinton will be able to govern.
However, if Clinton wins the presidency and also has congressional and senate wins to change the balance of power and support, then she may be able to govern. The same is also true for Trump. The main change demanded by the people is change in the establishment and getting ride of gridlock. As of October 10, 2016, the nature of the beast is uncertain!
Leftists don’t govern, they rule.
Growth in character and strength is often a developmental aspect in times of trouble. Change is possible too. We may find that many good changes are also coming.
The stock market always goes lower in the first year of a new president
Excellent analysis Martin,thank you.Yikes,lots to think about and not much of it is good.
It really does not matter who will win. The “Great Experiment”, that was the USA…has failed.
The founding fathers, who wrote the Constitution knew what it was like to live under an autocratic rule of King-Royalty-The Clergy, versus the serfs.
England was a class rated society, ane remained so till WW1. Our founding fathers attempted a “Great Experiment” of rule by the people and not some King and his royal buddies.
Today that “royalty class” is the 1%ers. We know them as Big Business-Big Government. The rule of the people may be suggested by the distrust of political career people, hence the rise of Trump…but the reality is that the 1%ers…..the “royalty” rules and people do not get a real say in the government that was designed to be supported by ” We the People….”
So regardless of who wins in November…unless there is a great clean up and the 1%ers are forced to play by the rules the 99% of us have to abide by ( which won’t happen)….It will be business as usual in Washington..
Could it be that the economy collapses before the election and there is so much strife and unrest that riots begin throughout the country, especially in the big cities. The riots will be propelled by racial inequality and economic disparity. Could it be that the riots will become so severe that the person in the White House will declare Martial Law, thereby grasping for an indefinite term in office. Fiction? Maybe not!
Spot on. If comrade Hussein and his leftists think Trump has any chance of winning, you will see the BLM, OWS, and assorted radicals take to the streets to bring about the declaration of martial law, which the CPUSA, aka Demoncraps, will support, while insisting on postponing the election. Actually forecast this over a year ago.
How will the election affect the economy? What economy are we talking about? The bad economy we’re presently in? Congress and our President had better quit their vacationing and start solving the mess they’ve created over the past decades. Not one of these Bureaucratic Politicians is being held accountable for their actions. “Exempt From Prosecution” is their alibi. Include the Fed Chairman with this group of goons as well.
It is interesting to hear someone I am in agreement with. But I will go even further. It does not matter who is elected this year I do not believe they will survive their full term. Trump has brought forth so much hate the winner will be assassinated along with Supreme Court Justices and members of Congress.
Whats in Play is – Divide and Conquer
Trump Will win in 2016 – and he will be better hands down for the true American populace
and his picks for Supreme Court Justices will help right the Mother Ship
As a result of dead people voting in Chicago and more than 100% of registered voters voting in Maryland,Hillary will win the Electoral College. So, she will be the next president for 8 yrs. Open borders, free trade, expansion of free health care and free college for all children. Talk of tax reform but no meaningful legislation. Or legislation chock full of loopholes for her corporate contributors. The Demo party plans to release some zinger hidden recordings of Trump that will eliminate any female votes. So, everyone is worrying about a Trump victory that will never occur. Also, in some states the Republican party provided his candidacy with ZERO support. Stop worrying about the unknown. She will be elected and the Fed will continue to inflate the stock market by providing cheap credit for corporations to buy back their outstanding shares.
The stock market from 1929-2012 did 400 times better when led by Demoratic Admistrations than by Republican Admistrations…… During that study period, there were about the same number of Democrat and Republican administations……. Don’t believe it? Check for yourself…….
and ask eagle495 where he got his information he has bragged and bragged he got it from the HUFFINGTON POST you cant believe anything eagle says its just misinformation trying to sway the low I.Q. voter
The source was Bloomberg financial (Perhaps you have heard of them?)…. It was listed at the bottom of the article as the source…. Do some real study rather than believing alll the drivel coming from Faux News, aye?
“But it misses the big elephant in the room: The ongoing disintegration of the nation’s social fabric — worsening income inequality, civil and ethnic strife, and, unfortunately, violence.”
This is why so many people are fed up with both parties. With the Democratic party, whose policies are arguably the cause of much of it. And with the Republican party, for not standing up to it whenever they have the chance.
AT,
All of that has happened from the Republican Revolution in the early 1980’s until the Republican Crash and Depression of November 2007 (under Cheney/bush)until Obama saved the nation by stoppig the Cash in March 2009… Much the Same as FDR saved the country after the last Republican Stock Market Crash and Depression of 1929 under Hoover…
Why wasn’t there another New Deal and CCC’s for Main Streeet? The Republicans refused to allow it to pass and that is why this recovery has ben so lopsided as the Republicans were ONLY interested in saving their benefactors the Big Banks!… :(
hey eagle495 what about the worst depression that started in 1937 and lasted til 1944 and that was F.D.R. s fault seems like the clintons got millions from the banks
AT,
Yes that is a good observation. Eagle495 must live in a gated community that is protected by armed guards 24/7. Demo’s and their policies of race baiting, envy and creating victimization anger among every minority class is how they “improved” the economy. Minorities did not start assassinating police at a high rate until Obama come into power. Only people who really benefitted from Eagle495’s economy are investment bankers, hedge fund managers and international businesses. My money on the election is on Hillary. In northern VA for example they are registering every illegal immigrants to vote. The VA judge struck down any ID requirements. Everyone of the staff that counts and verifies ballots are die-hard democrats. The majority are active and retired teachers. They do not cross check voter names to verify if they are legal residents or citizens. A validation process just does not exist. Also, they hand out 100% Spanish guides that tell the Spanish speaking illegal exactly how to vote!. The financial papers are scared to death that Hillary will not be elected. They are stupid for worrying themselves sick. The FIX is in at all of the key red states. The republican machine has done nothing to challenge these practice since they, deep down, do not want to win the presidency. If the market crashes, which it will not happen since the FED will just continue to print money either through near zero interest rates or blindly purchasing every GOV bond they can get their digital hands on to purchase. Take a deep breath and relax, the fix is in and future will mirror the past. Be optimistic and buy the dips. Also I guaranty that if Europe banks fail, the FED will bail them out…so stop ringing your hands on that issue. This is not 1929.
in my city where i live they just found 42 dead people who have been dead at least 10 yrs just signed up to vote early . a friend of mine his SISTER bragged to him she voted 3 times in the last election and shes a hardcore progressive liberal democrat and im lucky to vote once
Are you two brother and sister? And did you ever get a lick of education after being let out of high school…… It appears hyou have bought it hook, line and sinker…….. White and under educated and under employed…. Who’s fault is that, I ask?
Thank you all and Mr. Weiss for your wise comments which describe the dire situation we now find ourselves. You may not know me. However, I have been fighting through our Courts for two very important reasons: To obtain Justice and to expose the elements in the courts that I have personally observed as an Individual who has become a Victim of downright Obstruction of Justice with intent to steal and did steal my beloved purebred, and very valuable, Poodles who have some of the most famous bloodlines in the World. I am not the only such victim. At the appropriate time I will be writing several books, not just about my plight, but about the SEEDS OF DOMESTIC TERRORISM that exist and have existed for many, many years. The Violence in which you have referred via Financial and Political Social Deterioration is certainly occurring now and will be getting much worse when the American people WAKE UP to reality one morning to find that they have now become Victims when they lose everything they have worked hard for. This is when the Worst Civil War America has ever experienced will be plainly seen. Whoever is in the President’s Chair will be carrying the burden of that “extra star” and as President Harry Truman once said, “The Buck stops here.” I believe that the War will come swiftly and it will be nearly impossible to leave the country. The Chaos and Fear will take over. God help us all.
Welcome back, Dr. Weiss: We hope you and your family had a great adventure. Your team
performed their jobs quite well, and kept us informed. We even made some nice profits.
This report was very informative and makes us realize how important it is to always prepare for the worst, and work smart with faith and hope for the best. All of us need to follow the “Golden Rule”. “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Our government
leaders would be much more efficient and trusted. Without trust and faith, we may always be a nation divided that may not stand for long. ” May God Bless America” Thanks for sharing this with us. DMB
Interesting article Dr.Weiss. Concerning the domestic turmoil that you correctly point out, the Bible has this to say – “Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap”. Galatians 6:7 (KJV). Could it be that this applies not just to individuals – but to nations as well?
For a great majority of people, cashless transactions (i.e. prolific use of credit cards, etc.) is what has put many people deep in debt. Too many people today want everything now and are not willing to work until they can pay for things…..and it seems they always want bigger and better…now. If anything, things would likely be better if society could only do transactions with cash, forcing people to live within their means.
As far as the U.S. elections go (I am a Canadian but have been trying to follow them closely), despite the fact that there is not much choice between Clinton and Trump, I think the lesser of the two evils would be Clinton. I feel for the USA and the rest of the world if narcissistic Trump got elected…..just another Putin, if you ask me (and we all know that Putin is just a dictator)!
i agree maybe time for a new party
It should be said that the Big Elephant is in whole world- not only in America. All around, the same political 50-50 division game is been played. You can’t lead a country under such condition and that is what some people want- the failure of democracy in taking care of the people. The Media is main factor in this situation everywhere either. They’re aiming the young- which has one whole election vote but no experience in political issues whatsoever, with interested information or false- if it pays back . From there, pocket cellphones will do the rest. In this way the future of any country can be changed- for the worst, as non prepared individuals or brainwashed minds believe their time has come. Much of the non-sense comes from this segment.
We must think that equality is not possible even if we kill for it… because you cannot find it in nature, therefore talking about or rising a discussion about the rich and the poor it is a waste of time, but strong words in politician’s mouth. People’s capacities are not the same so personal outcomes will be different, always. Stop using people- which is not democratic. That in one hand.
In the other, anything that brings distress, division and danger should be avoided. I can’t believe people talking about it, out of desperation? You don’t run a race to learn that there was no end line. Because of this politicians have forgotten their path of doing politics honestly- but insulting and degrading competition. They don’t care any more. That only happens in 50/50 situation. Division is the big Elephant- we should learn, the mother of all battles so we must work on it now. The rich times for clean democratic elections has come to an end worldwide. Doesn’t surprise me to read these comments. Interesting but interested as you read. We are making this possible- there, here and everywhere. We’ll pay the price of the unknown political future this ‘new culture’ brings.
Why do you bother to vote? People should stand up, boycott the election and choose someone they trust.
That would simply result in establishment candidates winning by default. The direction of our country depends on the people being involved.
Many of the currently popular issues, like the impact of globalization on American workers, the role that trade agreements play in this, and the unemployment of large numbers of Americans (sometimes defined by some at the “takers”), can be traced back to the American public school system. While rapid change has hit our society and will continue, our educational systems have lagged behind in many ways, with the possible exception of the production of football players. The result is large numbers of young graduates who have limited skills and limited employment opportunities, and with limited ways to do anything about it. Meanwhile, some countries in northern Europe do things much differently, resulting in high school graduates who actually have learned a skill that can put them to work. (Think Germany) Yet we continue to starve our schools of funding (look at the pay for our teachers and the resultant turnover) while maintaining an out of date curriculum that meets only a handful of student and societal needs.
Remember the Bush vs Gore fiasco. The Constitution says the Florida electors should have named the winner not the Supreme Court. The Court even said this should not be considered a precedent, and recently Sandra Day O’Connor said the case probably shouldn’t have been taken by the Court. So much for a conservative Supreme Court.
And then Citizens United. Now money is speech. Money is a medium of exchange that can purchase speech which is expression. Duh. Scalia an originalist? NO WAY. He was the worst activist. A liberal Court couldn’t possibly be as bad as the conservative activists.
Where’s Waldo? Perhaps on planet Insane-O
Martin:
Brilliantly written, non-biased and rational. Did you ever considering running for president? Honestly, right now you would get my vote.
thanks.
Lance B.
The only point in which I would disagree is if Clinton gets elected, I believe she will be able to push through most of her legislation either through Executive Orders or frankly with the track record that the Republicans have shown in never standing up to Obama, I wouldn’t expect any changes under Clinton and would expect that they would “roll over” and give in to most of her and the Democratic Party demands. This election has shown more than any other I believe that we are essentially run by one party consisting of Democratic and Republican Elites who care only about themselves and in the end do what’s best for themselves.
Another ‘elephant in the room’ not mentioned is Clinton’s stated disregard for our fundamental firearms rights. We KNOW for a certainty that her SCOTUS appointments will rule on ideology versus the Constitution. She has stated that Heller (and Chicago) were incorrect decisions, even though she is the one totally wrong on this. She has stated her willingness to use unconstitutional executive orders and other means (more BATFE regulations, for example) to deprive us of our rights. She doesn’t seem to realize that there are (conservatively) 85 MILLION gun owners in America, and we own over 300 MILLION firearms, and billions of rounds; there are only a total of ~800,000 LEOs in America. First, they have other tasks than getting shot trying to illegally disarm people; next, several hundred thousand current and retired officers and sheriffs have stated they will not follow government orders to disarm people; it’s logistically a disaster. At some tipping point, armed Americans might just decide enough is enough and revolt (which our Founder’s INTENDED with the Second Article of Amendment; indeed, Lincoln in 1848 wrote that it was right and proper that the populace overthrow a tyrannical government. Liberals should be careful what they wish for. Certainly, this would have a devastating effect on our economy at every level.