The country is the United States of America; the time, the late 19th Century.
Mark Twain calls it the “Gilded Age,” a mad race for riches by Robber Barons, unscrupulous speculators, and corporate millionaires.
But most economic historians see it in a different light: Unshackled from onerous government interference, it’s also the period when modern Corporate America comes of age; when tycoons build the country’s railroads; inventors help launch the first mass communication network; and the entire population helps transform an agricultural economy into an urban, industrial nation.
Before 1860, 36,000 patents are granted. In the next 30 years, the number of new patents mushrooms to 440,000.
One of those is Alexander Graham Bell’s new telephone, first exhibited in 1876. Within 50 years, 16 million units are installed, accelerating the pace of social and economic life many times over.
Three other patents multiply the efficiency and growth of business: The typewriter (1868), the adding machine (1888), and the cash register (1897).
The linotype composing machine (1886) — along with the rotary press and paper-folding machines — suddenly make it possible to print 240,000 eight-page newspapers in less than an hour.
Thomas Edison’s incandescent lamp eventually lights up millions of homes.
Thanks to the talking machine (phonograph) perfected by Edison … and then the motion picture, which he develops with George Eastman, there are suddenly 10,000 movie theatres across the nation where there have been none before.
The inventions that transform industry are even more dramatic: Steam-powered manufacturing and trains. The electric motor. The internal combustion engine. Revolutionary new applications of chemistry.
And Big Steel! In 1870, the U.S. steel industry produces 68,000 tons. Just twenty years later, it produces 4.2 million tons.
After the Civil War, most U.S. railroads are relatively primitive or in shambles. By 1880, the nation has 17,800 freight locomotives, carrying 23,600 tons of freight, plus 22,200 passenger locomotives. The railroads quickly become the nation’s largest industrial employers.
Urban population explodes. In 1860, only one-in-six Americans lives in communities of 8,000 people or more. In 1890, that proportion nearly doubles. Also in 1860, there is not one single city in America with a million inhabitants. But by 1890, New York has a million and a half; while Chicago, Illinois, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, each has over a million.
In those same three decades, the population of Philadelphia and Baltimore doubles; Kansas City and Detroit quadruples; Cleveland grows six-fold; and Chicago grows ten-fold. Minneapolis, Omaha, and many other similar communities, which are just small hamlets in 1860, grow by 50 times or more.
But this unbridled, mad dash to growth also leaves lots of collateral damage in its wake: labor exploitation, widespread poverty, frequent riots, or worse. And for the wealthy, the risks are also big: Two successive market panics and depressions — the first between 1873 and 1878, the second from 1893 to 1897.
In the final analysis, however, far more is gained than lost, especially as the Gilded Age matures with the advent of the new millennium: Between 1890 and 1929, the average urban worker puts in one less day of work a week, but brings home three times as much in pay. Meanwhile, the proportion of families confined to the drudgery of farm labor plunges in half.
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The everyday life of average Americans improves dramatically: By 1929, nine-out-of-ten have electricity and indoor plumbing. Four-fifths have automobiles. Two-thirds have radios. Nearly half have refrigerators. Infant mortality falls by two-thirds. Average life expectancy jumps by 20 years.
But among all the winners, investors and entrepreneurs are the largest by far. At the beginning of the Civil War, there are only 400 millionaires in the United States. By 1892, there are 4,047. And that’s even after the 1873-78 depression.
A New 21st Century Gilded Age?
It’s too soon to say. But with the new Trump administration, it’s possible that similar economic forces will be unleashed: Old billionaires in the White House; new billionaires in the business world. More freedom for Corporate America. New pathways to growth. A rising wave of technological innovation. And countless new millionaire investors, provided they’re in the right place at the right time.
Of course, at this mature stage in our economy’s development, there are probably more differences with the late 19th Century than similarities. So, you can’t expect the Gilded Age to repeat itself in the same way or to the same degree. Still, by shedding a lot of the government regulations that currently inhibit growth, and by opening a wider path for new technologies to replace the old, the new administration could unleash some changes that are reminiscent of that bygone era.
New Gold Law to Impact 1.6 Billion People A new global law in effect this December could deliver an unexpected shock to the markets. No less than 32 major central banks are scrambling to prepare for the inevitable fallout. They’re shifting their money into one single asset that could explode in value, even as everything else plummets. $3 TRILLION is set to change hands virtually overnight. You must prepare now – there’s no time left to wait. |
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Politically speaking, you may hate the change in Washington. Or you may love it. But when it comes to your money, the only rational choice is to adapt to it. Just remember three things:
First, the threats we’ve been writing about are not going away:
- As we predicted, the European Union is coming unglued: Brexit. The fall of the pro-EU government in Italy. Soon, a similar outcome in France. Perhaps even in Germany, too.
- As we predicted, the dollar is getting ever stronger, as the global money tsunami drives still more flight capital our way.
- As we’ve warned, the cycle of war is ramping up, month-by-month, step-by-step, with some consequences that are predictable, but many that are not.
- Plus, as we’ve stressed continually, you can expect some of the greatest boom-bust cycles of all times, bringing both million-dollar profit opportunities and million-dollar risks.
Second, the 21st Century versions of the Gilded Age, or at least some aspects of that period, are already in the making:
Revolutionary transportation technologies like driverless cars and drones. Revolutionary communications technologies via billions of mobile devices. And new information processes, such as Big Data and the Internet of Things, that are transforming industry as we speak.
Most important, we will be here to guide you through thick and thin — not just via our regular Money and Markets issues, but also with a new division and Web page dedicated to helping you profit in the new Gilded Age.
Scheduled launch date: Inauguration Day, January 20, 2017.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 33 comments }
Was looking at Boris and Kathy and I am assuming that this is option trading? The piece went on to say it shows how to open a currency trading account. How is that different to say an Options Express account that I already have?
do not forget the P wave , the next new communication to replace g4, g5 , wifi
Unbridled industrialism changed an agrarian society, although treatment of workers was only marginally better off the farm. The robber barons built fantastic homes, but new infrastructure and water resources were ascendant. Now we are plagued by insufficient resources during an age when the rest of the world will stand up to us. Sure we can eliminate the EPA, but anyone who has had to breathe the air in Los Angeles may not be so willing to do that, economic benefits beside. There’s more to life than making more money!
Let L.A. have their OWN EPA! Or just frigin move.
Better yet let them float out to sea: great to get rid of them
Gold is a superstition. unlike silver It has no particular value in itself. . If people start paying $5000 an ounce for gold, a lot of them are going to be shorn when the bubble bursts.
Hi Martin
Good article. One of the instruments of modern government has been a burgeoning bureaucracy. In a balanced approach it would be fair to say that regardless of politics most Americans care fore the environment, poverty, jobs and the many other basic issues in a growing economy. It is when the pendulum swings too far in favour of one side and we end up with stagnant growth and a bloated bureaucracy that a revolution in ideas is needed. All of us have faults, DJT included, however I believe he is the right man for these times. We really do need to get this country going again. Debt reduction, job participation rates need our attention. I too have lived through times when the lift operator is no longer required and the tea lady as well. The challenge for us all, is with respect to those who have been sidelined by progress. Henry Ford understood that you need employed customers if you are going to make stuff to sell. I can see a certain level of protectionism creeping back to rebalance fair trade. There are impacts here too for global trade.
Howard
Could not agree with you more. Balance is the key word. We need a strong middle class which is what drives
any economy and for some reason our leaders in the corporate world and Washington seem to have forgotten.
There are always unforeseen consequences to “progress”. The development of mechanical planters, reapers and other farm machinery, beginning in the late 19th century, reduced the need for farm labor. That lead to lower rural populations with larger farms, run by fewer people. That lead to corporate farming, and the carbohydrate age, since grains are especially lucrative to corporations. Now we have an epidemic of obesity, diabetes and other diseases, and are just beginning to see reduced lifespans as a result. That is just one example.
There was a third panic. 1907, which JP Morgan solved with his own money.
Another example of “progress”: The improvements in transportation and distribution, beginning in the 19th Century, lead to the rise of the mail order catalogue stores, such as
Sears, Roebuck. They reached their peak in the early 20th Century. The rise of shopping malls in the 1950s, with many stores conveniently clustered together destroyed the catalogue business. Now, though, we have the rise of the internet, with easy ordering and even more convenient delivery to the home or business. Amazon has become the Sears, Roebuck of the 21st Century. I suspect it will one day be supplanted by makers in every home.
What happened to all the GOLD hype??? I picked-up 75K then all of a sudden I find I’m “In-the-tank” What goes??? I lost the 75K plus 30k more. Is gold still on or is it a dead-issue. I’m 77 year old and was using a “one-Trick-Pony” to get into retirement facility but it hasn’t “Panned-Out” . So is it on or off??? Ben
Unfortunately the parallel is missing one key element. During the period after the Civil War, the immigration “exploded” at first to replace the casualties of a particularly brutal war. At the start of the 21st Century we have xenophobia and expected plans to block immigration & even eject existing migrants. Who will buy the new technology if the population deflates? The “poor huddled masses” of a collapsing Europe will not be allowed to come to USA to escape the upcoming wars so they will go to Australia, Canada, the more successful parts of Latin America (ex Chile, Mexico).
Here we go again….someone who doesn’t know the difference between immigration and ILLEGAL immigration or having border control versus NO border control or having a legal immigration system that protects the country from those intending to do harm or blindly letting anyone in. The world has no right of entry into any country. Wake up and use some common sense about the impact. The ‘poor huddled masses’ that will want to leave EUROPE will be leaving for exactly the reasons it sounds like you want to institute here. Xenophobia is in your imagination and you use it as a weapon to try to get people of common sense to be politically correct…and there you have Europe.
If”the more successful parts of Latin America (ex Chile,Mexico”will be attractive to masses of a collapsing Europe,why is,the mass of their populations continue to use any mans necessary to illeagally enterthe U.S.A. .?
Thanks Martin,
Fantastic overview!
Thank you so very much for your excellent research & timely information. I can’t tell you enough how much I respect & appreciate your work and ability in gathering additional great people to help us manage our finances/investments to keep us safe amid this global upheaval. Weiss information & research is “golden” – very meaningful and actionable! God bless you, your family and Weiss team for helping us all year.
Dear Martin and staff,
Season’s Greetings sir to you and all that provide honesty without the hype! Many thanks for the continuing words of wisdom and, of course, your perspective!!!! Please keep up the good work
Sincerely,
Creig A. Dunlap
Excellent article. Your perspective is always exceptional and thought provoking.
There are those “rich person filters” you’re wearing again. You recognize the problem of income inequality but fail to mention the main way to address it, higher taxes for the rich.
“Tax the Rich” violates one of the Ten Commandments – Thou shalt not Covet, one of the more overlooked or forgotten of the ten. I’m not going all religious on you here. Most people do not know that the ten planks of the communist manifesto are mirror imaged, that is anti thesis, of the Ten Commandments. Example: Thou shall not steal. First this presupposes private property. But in communism, you can not steal because there is no private property, everything belongs to the State. In fact you do not even own the hand that is holding the piece of property. Hence we have a tax on our labor called the income tax. How did the government come to own, even a small piece, of our labor?
The progressive income tax is cut and paste communism. The very first chairman of the IRS knew this and said it publicly.
All ten planks are in effect, as law, here in the US.
The bottom line is that if a person earned something lawfully, then it is not yours, period.
Is your real name Robin Hood?
Dear Dr: Weiss: I believe as well as other Americans that a big correction in the stock market is coming very soon. The market is overvalued due to low interest rates and excessive credit expansion. I believe that there are deflationary pressures in our economy and the economies all over the world. The world has taken on too much debt. The world is floating with paper money! We should be meeting with other nations in order to negotiate this debt down. Our debt to GDP is 105%. I do not believe that we can afford a one trillion dollar infrasture project. There will be a fight over the debt ceiling in March. In my virw, the next black swan event will come from Italy. Eighteen percent of Italian loans are non performing. Have a Happy Holiday, God Bless. Robert Calabro.
Dr. Weiss: Articles as like this one make me glad I’m a subscriber – thank you! – All the best for the coming year! HMB.
Interesting Article from Tom
When will we learn more about your new division and web page?
Dr. Weiss,
Loved this article one can only hope that we are on the cusp of a major growth spurt. My puny investments depend on it.
Unfortunately, the old billionaires in the white house are looking backwards instead of forward. We shouldn’t be rebuilding Exxon and Eisenhower’s Interstate system – we should be reinventing transportation and the energy sector as is currently being done by Elon Musk at Tesla. That’s a great example of modern American exceptionalism that will enable the US to continue to lead the world. But that was happening in part due to policy at the federal level which our incoming POTUS looks to tear down. I just don’t understand this.
Where does the electricity for Elon’s electric cars come from?
I read a lot, much of it on the Internet these days, as I have had a lot of free time in my later years since I work a lot less these days than in the past. From all my reading over the years I have concluded that there is less concenses now than ever in the past; and there appear to be a lot of conflicting ideas even from within the same media source. Seems like the most lost profession of the day is that of the Chief Editor, make that any Editor. Information overload has turned into conflicting information overload. This results in truth twisted to suit individual goals of the various authors, rather than building a foundation based on consistency on which to stand. In all due respect Dr. Weiss, I suggest you hire a Chief Editor for your new Web page. Thank you
It is up to you and me to find truth, not an editor. We need a marketplace of ideas not a top-down dictator of a few politically correct ideas. Time to grow up Will, and stop asking others to spoon feed you.
Why do the financial times use such a fancy word as yield for something as simple as income?
“Families confined to the drudgery of farm work”……………..Wow! An interesting perspective you have on such a magnificent way of life!!!