Sometimes, it’s next to impossible to divine the next major investment trend. But sometimes, it’s as plain as day – right there hiding in plain sight.
Market Roundup
What brings this up? I spend a lot of time biking and jogging around town. Driving, too.
In the last few months, I’ve noticed something – a massive proliferation in “For rent/For lease” signage around town. Office complexes. Medical condos. Retail shopping centers. Everywhere. On one recent 14-mile ride, I literally spotted that kind of signage in front of all but one or two commercial real estate complexes on my route.
Some might dismiss this as anecdotal, or just a localized issue. But not me.
For one reason, I haven’t seen anything like this here in my South Florida back yard since 2005-2006 when we had the last major turn in the real estate cycle. That time, the locus of the future crisis was residential rather than commercial property. Housing developments were sprouting five, ten, fifteen, or more “For sale,” “For sale by owner”, and “Open house” signs like weeds every weekend.Is He
For another reason, these on-the-ground observations fit with what the data is showing all around the country. Multiple regional and national reports show investment in office property dropping from year-ago levels … apartment-market conditions loosening to levels we haven’t seen in the last several years … and property values starting to fall for the first time since 2010.
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| Multiple regional and national reports show investment in office property is dropping. |
Residential does have issues, mind you. We learned today that new home sales dropped for the third consecutive month in March, falling 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000. That missed economist forecasts. The median sales price also fell a few thousand dollars from March 2015.
But with apartment supply ballooning at a record rate … regulators warning of reckless commercial real estate lending practices … and increasing signs of the cycle “topping out,” now isn’t the time to be buying into the bubble on the commercial side of the business. It’s the time to start cashing out.
[Read More – The Consequences of Reckless Lending – Mike Larson]
I’ll have a heck of a lot more on this topic in the coming days and weeks – as well as suggestions for how you can profit. So stay tuned.
In the meantime, let me know what you’re seeing in your own neighborhoods. Are “For rent” signs sprouting up at commercial properties around you? Or do things look normal? If you’re in the business, what are you seeing on the ground? What is the likelihood we’re at another important turning point for real estate?
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What about the auto industry? Is it in a lot of trouble … or is growth on cruise control there? And what does it mean for the markets? You shared some views on those topics in the last couple of days.
Reader Jorge R. said: “My son is an agent for a brick-and-mortar auto insurance company. He is stating that business has slowed down drastically since last summer here in South Texas. Customers have been canceling insurance policies left and right, and not adding any more cars.
“He says that auto dealers have been complaining about slow business. One dealer had only one sale for the whole month as of yesterday (April 21, 2016) in this city of 60,000. Auto dealers are getting so desperate they are regularly coming into my son’s office to try to drum up business.”
Reader Ed added: “I’ve read other analysts who state the auto industry is in big trouble. I, myself, am in the market for a new car. My present car is 11 years old. But I’m going to hold off buying until I see whether or not the ‘bubble’ bursts. If it does as many think it will, then I should be able to pick up a very decent car at a very decent price.”
Reader Steve shared this take on the auto sector CEO that prompted my Friday column: “Having worked in the auto industry, I agree with Mike Jackson. The industry has always been highly cyclical. Just look at the fluctuation in a chart of annual sales over time and which has risen to a peak. That’s why Chrysler has needed bailouts several times and why GM went bankrupt.
“I recall an industry meeting where Jackson was luncheon speaker and he was not afraid to tell the audience of manufacturers what he was really seeing at the dealer/customer level. The banks have their financial games and the auto manufacturers have their own version of marketing and financing games to manipulate sales ‘results’.”
When it comes to how policy might react to an auto downturn, Reader Jim said: “The Fed funds rate will continue to support the market, as well as the actions of the other major central banks. Foreign funds are pouring into the U.S. With all the promises being made by the candidates, the fourth year of the Presidential cycle is also firmly in place.
“We may get a short-term pullback. The big-time short covering in the energy sector needs to correct. But after that, it’s off to the races through the end of the year.”
However, Reader Chuck123 was more skeptical that policy can prop things up: “On monetary policy, there’s an old saying: You can fool some of the people all of the time, or all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of people all of time. So I think this monetary foolery will end, but I don’t know when.”
Thanks for sharing your views. I believe policy has pretty much reached the end of the line when it comes to having any impact on the underlying economy. Periodic asset price spikes can’t be ruled out, and indeed, we’ve just seen another one. But the longer-term direction for the markets and economy seems pretty clear to me, given the multiple bubbles that are simultaneously popping right now (autos, IPOs, M&A, buybacks, commercial real estate, and on and on).
Incidentally, there are a lot of things I’m doing to get my important warnings and recommendations into the hands of investors like you. One upcoming event that I’m attending is the MoneyShow Las Vegas that’s running from May 9-12, 2016 at Caesars Palace.
[Read More – Yet ANOTHER Billionaire Warns About Coming Chaos – Mike Larson]
With over 160 hours of educational classes, engaging panel discussions, and an exhibit hall offering industry-leading companies, live trading and software demos, and unsurpassed networking opportunities, The MoneyShow Las Vegas will help you learn how to invest and trade to win. I have two presentations planned, and would love it if you could attend. Click here or call 800-970-4355 to register today (please mention priority code 040948).
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 More luxury towers, with more rentals are flooding the real estate market in several U.S. cities – but nowhere is the extravagance as over the top as in New York City. Bloomberg offers this tour of the “American Copper Buildings” at 626 First Avenue in Manhattan.
They won’t be completed until 2017. But when they are, the twin buildings (40 and 49 floors) will feature a three-story skybridge linking them. The bridge will have a lap pool, allowing residents to swim from end to end 300 feet above the ground. Unfortunately for the developers, as I noted earlier, the real estate market is likely on the brink of another downturn – with the massively oversupplied apartment sector particularly vulnerable.
China has reverted to a dangerous, failed formula to boost growth artificially – massive, new debt-funded stimulus, according to the Financial Times. A record 6.2 trillion yuan surge in borrowing in the first quarter – up 50% from a year earlier – helped goose GDP. But it also drove China’s debt-to-GDP ratio up to 237%, the highest level in the nation’s history and up from around 148% in 2007 at the last market peak.
 Donald Trump’s two leading opponents, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, are trying a last-ditch strategy to deny him the nomination. They’re going to basically “split up” a handful of states – with each ceding a select number of races to the other.
Is that collusion a sign of desperation, or a savvy political move? Let me know your thoughts. I’m also interested in hearing your view on the outlook for commercial real estate, China’s economy, and the other topics I’ve covered here. The discussion section below is where you can weigh in.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Did you miss my URGENT report? If you care at all about preserving your wealth in the coming crash — and then multiplying it many times over — click this link to read my invaluable report NOW!
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Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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Hi Mike
I was wondering wether or not John Kasich would end up as a running mate for the Donald? It’s a crazy year ahead.
Some are going to sell in May and go away and others are going to try and squeeze one more bounce out of it. I may have sold a little early but I’m out now anyway.
Ft Myers area here. Not seeing the explosion of open space but there is some and it does seem to be growing. They have been on a building tear for several years and I do expect to see the crash repeated.
Mike, as a “B & C” apartment owner, I’m particulary interested in any insights you have…I’m looking to sell what I have and expand my unit count in larger properties….sell now and wait it out?
Rob
I have also noted that there are many for lease signs in the commercial space in our section of Los Angeles. The local economy leaves a lot to be desired and Amazon seems to killing the retail sector. The lack of demand of goods and services is stifling.
The Chinese are so hard working aren’t they.
Hi Mike
I live in central NJ. I have noticed the same phenomenon, commercial property available everywhere you turn and it seems to be on the increase with very little new construction. I thought it was a sign of the outward migration of business from our very highly taxed state. I wintered in Naples FL & didn’t see many empty properties and lots of new residential construction.
They all moved to Tennessee. Wish they would go back.
I hope that Cruz and Kasich can combine their forces to dump Trump. The only place I want to see Donald or Hillary is on a realty TV show.
guess what?????// it will b donald or hilarry!!!!!111
If current statistics are anywhere near accurate, it will be Hillary, or Bernie, or Biden as the Democratic candidates for President are running around a 75% probability and Trump around 15%…
in a recent poll trump was only 3points behind hillery and when he spills the beans about her she is … finished
Anyone continuing to sell Trump short is out of touch. He is a remarkable political phenomena. He will win the nomination. Can you imagine what the convention will look like with the guy who produced The Apprentice and Miss America in charge? His marketing genius is undeniable. The master hucksters, the Clintons, have met their match. I am not a Trump supporter but I know a winner when I see one, and born loser (Hillary) when I see one. Jim
Houses priced between $250-350,000 are selling in less than a week in our SE city. Houses priced at more than $500,000 aren’t selling, unless the owners take a big discount and sell for less per square than the less expensive houses. Nonetheless, in two nearby developments, new houses start at $900,000. It’s a bubble all around. The less expensive houses are poorly built, oftentimes by unskilled tradesmen. The more expensive homes are well built, most more than 15 years old. But people don’t want to pay for them, or the banks won’t write the mortgages. Something is up, but nobody knows what.
“…Ted Cruz and John Kasich, are trying a last-ditch strategy to deny him the nomination.”
So, the putative outsider conservative is teaming up with the radical liberal insider to keep the outsider from winning? The lawyer from Canada can no longer look like an outsider. The more Kasich and Cruz look like slimy insiders, the better for Trump. Yes, it’s a brilliant move – for Trump.
the clintons are the slimiest sleeze bags out there in this sea of politicians
Haven’t seen this much vacant land clearing in North Naples Florida in the last 7 years. Infrastructure for thousands of residential lots, with lots of money in the ground, and a fair amount of spec housing being constructed. After a busy few years, a big slowdown, and banks, some builders/land developers, I suspect, are going to have a big bullet to bite. Seems these speculators are behind the curve, and doing this in part because of low interest rates. Duh!
Foreign buyers, including Canadians have slowed to a trickle.
Retail and office space for rent signs increasing almost daily. Can’t figure out why vacant commercial lots are being built on everywhere. I must be missing something????
On the west coast side of things, here in suburbia Walnut Creek there has been an insane amount of over development & unsustainable growth. The downtown area is being over built at break neck speed with with high density high end apartments with a 2 bedroom running $3500.00 per month. This used to be a charming village like community, now it’s bumper to bumper endless traffic on poorly delineated streets… the stress and chaos is building. What I can’t figure out is why anyone would pay $3500.00 per month to rent, when one could be paying far less to own. It’s very sad state of affairs.
The renters usually have no down payment for a home or are waiting for a more solid foundation in the community with job security. There are so many examples of places like Walnut Creek – idyllic towns with slow pace – now bustling commercial centers with huge job growth and all the problems that follow the population increase over a short period of time. Price of progress – sad but no stopping it.
I’ve lived in Southwest Florida for 22 years. If I’ve learned anything about real estate here,it’s that real estate here seems to go in boom/crash cycles more frequently than in the mid-Atlantic states I lived in previously. In the area of Florida I’m in,I see a very cautious approach to residential building starts,and lots of empty commercial properties.
On the political front-Cruz and Kasich are playing right into The Donald’s hand. Fun to watch the desperate RNC/Romney try anything to stop what they don’t understand. On the real estate front, here in the Boston area – no signs of slowing down-crains pointing skyward everywhere you look.
In the Orlando, FL area, I just sold my home by myself with no advertising except a craigslist ad in 6 days, to the second person who looked at it. It is in the lower 1/3 of homes in the area price-wise. There’s virtually no inventory here. In talking to a realtor friend, she tells me that the low end is still selling well, the high end is decent, but the middle tier of homes is not selling at all. She attributes it to the disappearing middle class, and I think (as a real estate investor) that she’s right. The market here is finally starting to flatten out price-wise after 5 years of good increases.
Here in Baltimore, A 40 odd story apartment, and a 17 story office, apartment, retail building recently broke ground, and several others are in the wings, including another 40 plus story building. Quite a few older downtown office buildings have been or are being converted to apartments, so developers must think the market is strong. The city is said to be a good job market for young college grads. On the other hand, a luxury hotel added 11 floors of luxury condos, and is having a bit of trouble selling them. Had to lower prices.
By the way, a new shopping plaza in my suburban neighborhood is said to be over 90% leased with good tenants. Hooray, I soon won’t have to go ten or twelve miles to the nearest Wegmans any more.
If you should be in need of a proof reader, I know of an excellent one. I am the one! You DO need one. See the end of paragraph 5. I do enjoy your column, but like many, it seems that NO ONE proof reads it before it is published.
I couldn’t agree more with Al. NOBODY proof reads anymore. The spelling and grammatical errors in the press at once iconic sites like the NY Times, Washington Post, LA Times and I could go on and on is really sad to see. Forget about internet pages. Does anyone know how to speak English anymore? The dumbing down of America is clearly here.
The numbers of private homes for sale and commercial property for lease in Connecticut is overwhelming. Certainly due to the slowing economy but also due to the extreme tax and spend policies of the state.
In Michigan’s Oakland County, we had a commercial real estate bust in 2007-8. Nearly every office property on a one-mile stretch of Big Beaver Road, our main highway in Troy, had for-lease signs. General Motors laid off several thousand R&D workers permanently, scrapped laboratory instruments, killed off 90% of their corporate research activity, and moved office cubicles into what had once been laboratory space. Workers who used to occupy rented offices in Troy, Sterling Heights, and Warren, ended up in those former laboratories — unless they got laid off too — and commercial-property renovation and new construction pretty much halted, resuming a little activity in 2015.
The bad news for shareholders of the new, post-bankruptcy GM, is that they own the name of a former technology leader. They don’t own very much in the way of developing technology. What there is of it, is happening in China. And patent rights now depend on the vagaries of Chinese intellectual property laws and litigation would have to follow Chinese rules of evidence and procedure, with which few US lawyers are familiar. This firmly positions GM to be an also-ran in the automotive business, because the patent rights go to the people who do the studies and create the inventions, not the people who buy licenses to use those inventions.
One wonders what Florida-based user of office space, is no longer able to pay the full rent. The three main industries in Florida seem to be funds management for retired people, health care for retired people, and renting out former motels as prison space, to the federal government. Which of those activities is shrinking it’s budget, nowadays?
Bob, thanks for the report.
Mike just gave a small opinion. He wanted some feed back!!!!!!!!!!
What is the outlook for the southwestern region( Albuquerque, Phoenix ,Las Vegas ) ?
Mike,
You have hit on a very important economic question as current statistics tell us that fewer and fewer Americans an afford to buy a home compared to their parents and grandparents…So how far down the road do you think that America will have to get pushed before it’s citizens have had enough?
When Americans decide that buying products made outside of America is the real root problem that is causing the falling quality of life in America, perhaps they will begin electing Congressmen and women that will withdraw us from NAFTA and GATT and fire anyone who supports the TPP, aye?
Now, that said, which political party wrote and passed those trade agreements and which political party is most likely to respond to citizens demands and rescind them with the Presidency and a Majority Congress?
“So how far down the road do you think America will have to get pushed before its citizens have had enough?” How about until Election Day.
i myself cant wait till we get rid of this obama adminstration and their constant effort to erode the bill of rights and the constitution if i remember right bill and hillery clinton signed NAFTA what we need in this country is somebody who looks out for the middle class instead of the low lifes i read theres a new program coming for low cost high speed internet only 5 bucks a month signed by barack obama oh wait theres a stipulation the only way you can get it is if someone in your home is on foodstamps and for the rest of us who are not on foodstamps we are all being charged a surcharge on our bills of $9.95 bucks to pay for the low lifes i guess thats what democrats mean with wealth redistribution thats all i hear from bernie and hillery and why i still vote democrat i dont know they sure are not looking out for me
Do some real homework and you will find out that NAFTA and the removal of Glass-Steagall were BOTH Republican initiatives written and passed during Republican Majority Congresses…… Yep, Bill signed both of them when he should have vetoed them and forced the Republicans to override his veto, but to say that these were Democrat initiatives is not true
Aloha Mike,
Here in Hawaii is Coco (Nuts), Affordable means $500,000 for a one Bedroom condo if you make below Family income of less then $75,000 a year. And you have to enter a lottery to try to buy one of these condos. And for Retail space here in Hawaii ( Honolulu)
is anywhere from $10-$50 sq. ft. And they building another very large shopping Center on the West side of Oahu w/ another 300+ spaces available, Plus the area around this Shopping center will have another 300+ spaces available. And it is almost impossible, Unless you are a fairly large business to be able to afford any of these spaces.
And there are all pretty much leased out 2 years in advance.
Delray here….. Its booming!!!!! places going up left and right,investors grabbintg up everything they can and even homes not on the market to knock them down and rebuild brand new larger homes, moneys coming in here………….
I leave in a suburb of Houston, TX and I have been seeing a sharp increase in “For lease” or “For sale signs at commercial real estate properties.
Regarding the Cruz-Kasich strategy; “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” seems to be in play. This is one way to see how the votes split up on a one-to-one race between all candidate and may play an important part in future decision making over the next few weeks. Interesting thought; is this a first date to the dance to determine a POTUS-VP combination?
Um, in Los Angeles, especially on the Westside, it’s almost impossible to find a suitable apartment to rent under $2000/month. Apartment owners are squeezing every last dollar out of their units because of a boom in ecommerce businesses opening campuses here.
Buildings are selling for super-high multiples.
Denver rents and real estate prices are going up. There is not enough commercial space for prospective tenants and vacancies are low and dropping. Develoipers cannot keep up, in part because during the “Great Recession” construction workers left the business and are not coming back.
Boulder,CO, 30 miles north of Denver, home of the University of Colorado is non-stop insane. Average house is around a million dollars, rent is very high for the few apartments available and during the 2008 bust nothing residential went down in value, just stayed the same and now we are either in a bubble or the fact that google is moving in and the University is building amazing structures makes Boulder a rather unique town.
I think you need to know Mike and readers what is happening in Vancouver BC. Line ups for house showings, nobody gets asking price for residential, they get hundreds of thousands of $ ABOVE listing price. The realters give you a bid sheet at open houses and most houses are sold sight unseen. They call you if your bid is among the top bids. There is NO commercial real estate available anywhere in this area and if there is it’s because the conditions are too unfavorable for the leasee. This market has and is continuing to defy naysayers for so many years running that my children haven’t go a clue what the phrase “Can’t sell my house” even means.
I’ve been saying for a while now that there is no point in using the typical “For Sale” signs around here anymore. The “For Sale” signs should just be permanently painted with the word “SOLD” across the front of them.
My husband and I are Real Estate Brokers and Investors here in San Diego, & prices have jumped since Dec.- across the board! Anything, even slightly, near the coast under $1m gets multiple offers within a few days. We have very limited inventory so it’s still a sellers market. Rents have skyrocketed but many people don’t qualify for these high prices. Lenders don’t do stated in general and SoCal has many self employed. Catch 22. New home developers are few and they’re selling quickly-
We’ve seen a LOT of available commercial but have commercial clients who can’t find what they need (due to permits) CRAZY TIMES!
beware I heard recessions start on each coast and work inward it sounds like its starting
Residential home sales are booming in Raleigh area. a listed house stays on the market approx 4 days, and often the ask price is bid up.
I just rented one of my office condosit was on the market less than a month.
Also the trades are doing well and hiring employees.
thanks
Rick
From the northern Colorado Front Range.
Which housing market? Seems to me builders have been building “for the money” rather than the need. In our neck of the woods there’re almost no affordable houses for sale for anyone making under $100,000 a year. If we were dependent only on the amount of our pension (which is about slightly above the median income), we couldn’t afford to live in our house.
I’ll extend that thought a bit. With, maybe, half the USA households spending almost all their money on rent, utilities, and food (often with help from the food banks and food stamps), how are they going to buy enough “stuff” to keep businesses in profit? Seems the affluent elite have “shot themselves in the foot” by cutting their own taxes and hoarding the proceeds.
I won’t scrape deeper into the muck the USA is wading through at the moment.
mike, you asked, so i’ll tell you what i think. oil is still in charge. oil hit a bottom february 11, 2016. bottoms are usually midpoints in crashes. it took oil a full year to find its bottom, so i expect about another full year for oil to recover. the bottom is in, the worst is behind us, but i’m not expecting much change in oil prices until next year in 2017. since oil prices rule, it’s not too hard for you figure out the rest. i could very well become rip van winkle for the next year. wake me up when we get there.
When I travel the walk of the area I see that most of the store fronts closed are small business’s. It looks to me like the late 30’s, without soup lines, as they are hidden by the Obama food stamps programs. The youth of America are ignorant and complacent about the “free government” gifts that will cost them the freedom they seem to know nothing about. I regret not seeing the liberal school teachers making children believe that the government will give you everything for free. Ya know we can’t make our way without the government, BS.
Unfortunately Doug, you are correct.
our government has made the young lazy and complacent and ignorant of the past they think the govt. is here to give away money to them with no strings attached but thats all i hear from the democrats today free free free honeslty i voted for bernie sanders but as for hillery all i can say is never again i voted for bill clinton once and then i realized he was a complete liar and cheater never again im thinking if hillery gets the nomination im voting republican
Ben Franklin: ” Everyone is born ignorant. You really have to work hard to remain stupid.” Jim
Doug nailed it. Our youth learn nothing about history, social studies, economics, science and technology and the elrments of our true founding and the values and ethical premise that made the USA great. We are losing the foundation of our nation. We are on an ethical slide that will change us for genrrations if we do not wake the hell up (actually, I believe we have awoken hell).
The stupidity in the protesters is mind boggling. We have allowed the self proclaimed elites to actually believe they are smarter than everyone because so many fall for their nonstop deceptions and outright lies. We are in big trouble. Be self sufficient, never stop learning, keep government small and out of our lives. Therein lies TRUE liberty and freedom and in turn happiness.
Hola Sr. Miguel here I just waiting for PRICES to drop more to buy me things that I would like . . . I know they will have to lower prices and offer better deals … so I am in no hurry to buy . . and I am only buying good wine to drink and keeping my wallet closed. . I am in no hurry to go out and spend any of my hard earned dinero …
Salud es hora de un vino sabroso
Allen West would be my first choice for president but if he just needs s little more time or experience he would make a great V.P. for Donald Trump if he gets the Nomination . Wests military back round would sure help Trump in the foreign affairs arena and West is also very knowledgeable when it comes to the economy .
Oh Great! Allen West NEOCON WAR MONGER! Just what we need! More War!
PLEASE!!!
For an international prospective on real estate, I live in Saigon. I take a daily walk to the park in the housing development I live in and frequently count the new construction of homes. Starts to completions were holding very steady until just about three months ago at the end of the TET holiday (all building by owner not developer). After TET on going work slowed and new starts collapsed. And, there are still ghost town developments in Vietnam.
My wife has been looking to rent a space in the tourist area to open a jewelry shop, but locations in the sizes she is looking for are grabbed by tour agencies and mini-marts such as Circle K that have driven prices up. I have a feeling that this will change as some sites are now going vacant; but strangely, not yet coming available on the market. Perhaps, this relates to lease clauses, perhaps because of uncertanties. There has been some lull in real estate since TET, but not enough for me to draw strong conclusions yet at this point in time.
Donald Trump may well secure the Republican nomination. He would do well to consider either John Kasich or Ted Cruz as his running mate.
Any one would be better than Cruz.
Here in the UK house prices are basically, of the scale for young first time buyers, the bank of mum and dad are helping which just props up the prices, and low interest rates, equals the bubble will burst, as soon as interest rates rise to normal what ever that is. There is a huge buy to let bubble which has added fuel to the fire, again forcing prices up, In London there are new million pound apartments being bought, if you drive past them at night there are no light on in any of them. Now is the time to follow Mr Buffet teachings be fearfull when people are greedy. I was going to add the last one to leave turn the lights out but in London they have never been on.
US total business sales have peaked and is currently on its way down, while inventories have reached a top. The decreasing consumer spending will soon echo through the entire economy manifesting in layoffs and further decreased spending. Ultimately GDP and thus the economy is contracting. Expect even more ‘for lease/for rent’ signage popping up around town!
Phoenix industrial/ warehouse market at 10% vacancy, Las Vegas (6%), inland empire (4%) which are close to low points. A lot of big distribution centers / e-commerce buildings still being built both speculative and build to suit. Still tremendous amounts of money looking to buy/build these warehouses hoping to land Amazon type companies/ credit for a tenant. We will see how long that lasts. On another note, not as many construction companies or mom and pops filling warehouses like last cycle.
ive already made up my mind if hillery clinton wins the nomintion im voting republican and im a democrat
i think i’m going to write-in bernie.
I think the increase in “For lease†or “For sale signs at commercial real estate properties, is a powerful signal about the health of small business in America.
Totally agree but with a slight modification. I believe these are the signs of the health of all of America. I’ve noticed lately many large companies are either really hurting by closing some stores (Wal-Mart, JCPenney, etc.) or they are strategically slimming down in anticipation of troubled times ahead. Lockheed Martin recently trimmed a lot of high-paying positions via voluntary layoff and will no doubt fill them with much lower paid employees. I pray I’m wrong, but I believe we’re one hiccup away from some real challenging times.
Many Americans don’t know how to survive without the assistance of the Government – this, in itself, speaks volumes about our health as a nation. I had hoped that the 2008 bust would teach Americans that less is more but it only seemed to increase the appetite for more debt, more greed, and more irresponsibility.
I think the Cruz/Kasich deal will backfire on them. But I also do not think Trump will get the necessary delegates to win nomination on first vote. It will be an open convention. I also believe Romney is waiting in the wings and hoping to be drafted for the nomination.
I am amazed at how many people still haven’t put the pieces of the puzzle together. If you are a member of the CFR you are not working for the USA (As Hillary said, “They tell us what to think and what to do.”) but for a global consortium. Once you realize most of our government leaders are members, is it any wonder why the country is at odds with what once were American values. The communists have used this ploy of pitting people against each other for years. It prevents them from threatening the State and the downward slide on morals are all done to demoralize the people. Of course Cruz and Kasich are plotting together, they work for the same force. Tump is a wildcard. He might be worse. But I’ll take that chance over certain destruction.
Cindy
You’re right. Some people cannot survive without the government or Lockheed Martin.
It’s too bad we only have two parties to choose from.
Politicians tend to be untermenschen (sub-humans). I know Hillary is a notorious liar. I can’t believe Trump seems to get a free pass for blowing smoke up the collective working class kitute
every time i hear hillary speak, i get the feeling mom is going to be running the country. i’m ok with a woman a president, but not mom.
So far as I can tell the new home construction is going on like gang busters They are building a new school next to me and a new subdivision is to go in behind me.
The city is taking my front yard – 45 feet out of 73 feet.
There are commercial properties for lease but not excessive.
Perhaps when California stops moving to Texas things will change
Rent is, in my opinion, out of reason.
Irby
Thanks to widespread mortgage derivatives being sold under false pretenses, and the ensuing creation of too many overextended people with ARMs, we saw residential real estate implode when a tipping point number of assets were no longer worth what even financially sound people with good jobs and income paid for them. We were all SOL.
The Banksters will do with commercial real estate what they did with residential: They took in hefty down payments and loan payments. After this commercial real estate implosion, they will turn around and get new suckers to give them more down payments, etc. on the same commercial properties they cashed in on before. Sure, a few of us who have enough cash to purchase deflated properties at our neighbor’s expense will survive. But overall, our nation’s population is far from thriving and even those numbers have significantly dwindled, while wealth has become ever-more concentrated in the hands of the elite.
Propped up by taxpayer bailouts and the lucky few able to prosper on others’ losses, residential real estate and consequently business in general scraped commerce back together as they gave the masses lower-paying jobs without benefits.
With consumer’s pockets emptied of decent income and assets (including retirement stashes for some of us), and no more QE, business is destined to follow the same pattern we witnessed when residential real estate imploded.
Commercial real estate will again show us the elephant in the room: The elite will have further enriched themselves at the greater population’s expense. Our only hope is that without enough consumption the elite will have shot themselves in the foot and then we can figure out how to carry on without them.
While reading the observations of your readers across the country regarding the frenetic pace of (eventually) unoccupied houses and business bldgs., it feels more and more like 2007-8 when all the builders were racing to complete their projects and collect their cash before the music stops and they’re left without a chair.
It truly amazes me that investors can push up the shares of BP oil by 4% after reading their horrible profit report. Also they are trying to raise the CEO’s salary by 20% for being in charge of this horrible report. Also one of the rating agencies has downgraded Mobile oil for the 1st time in its history. It seems to be that economists have set the bar so low for company earnings that they have no trouble beating them even though this years profits are less than last years. I keep constantly reading in these reports that quarterly profits were lower but higher than lowered estimates. What kind of bologna is this? The market is also buoyed by a increase in the barrel of oil which is another thing I cannot understand. The world is awash in the stuff and yet it keeps climbing in price. Astounding.
Raleigh, NC: I’m looking to buy quadroplex properties. Recently (3 weeks ago) a great property came on the market (on a Friday) and my agent was unavailable until Sunday eve to show it. Come Sunday she called, cancelled, and explained that 4 “out of town” buyers had placed offers, sight unseen, on the property. This seems to be an unrealistic market.
I am going to vote for Bernie and go back to school. I am thinking about advanced basket weaving and sex education. With a minor in alcohol consumption and advanced nap time.
From Arizona,
I have bought and sold many homes. Now 59 i would like a lock and leave life style. Cost of new and some old condos and their hoa’s are so high. It makes no sense for me to move in one financially. I have a new pool too. I did downsize on this last move. They still are building apts here and new homes. I would like to know how ppl can afford theses new prices. The bubble is gonna hit. No win situation for me. But ppl here are into bigger homes again. I don’t get it!!
As a snowbird to Hudson, FL I see multiple small business closings along route #19 on FL’s west cost. Of the various communities north of Tampa our town seems one hardest hit. Further north towns have nothing to brag about on growing economy. Single buildings, strip and major malls have tons of empty retail space. Pasco County area is leading sink hole country and areas west of #19 require special house financing and insurance requirements. My insurance company, USAA, does not insure houses in FL. Like many locations in America certain corners have homeless with signs requesting help and with normally pleasant weather encampments in the woods are everywhere. By the post office they had a dinning table w/chairs and seemed to be family of adults. Before they started a housing subdivision on the wooded area next to our R/V park there was a small village in the woods.
Last fall in WY, on #25 off US 80, while eating lunch at MCD we watched two guys with signs work a corner. One would stand with his pack and get relieved to go back to their truck for a smoke. One really wonders who really needs help and some are using the present economic condition to gain free income. I’ve thought of getting a sign saying “I need help pay for grandkids and nieces and nephews college costs” and find a good corner. Way back in the 80’s we had a fellow in Juneau, AK whose lady would pick up his money in a fairly new Caddy. He worked the Post Office and Fred Meyer store bus stop. My favorite charity is family then “Holiday Stockings” in Seattle and PBS stations in my areas. My daughter-in-law a GP says she’ll be an old lady before her schooling is paid for and soon we’ll have a national crisis with a million DR shortage. Why not use former military medics in areas with shortages? Sure could help in countryside areas that DR’s don’t want to practice in. Sure makes sense to me.
We live in the woods of WA state on a golf course. Lots of lookers on new and older homes for sale but like many retirement areas you have to bring your money with you. Our local economy was built on lumbering in the past. One mill was sold last year to be torn down and a new one to be built. Another mill will be closed in July so you can imagine things are pretty slow downtown. Yesterday talking to a credit union loan lady she said loans are like 2008 again, pretty slow as people worry about future income. When ObamaCare was talked about local WMT let 100 associates go and reduced hours on some that remained.
No matter who wins in Nov. I suspect taxes will be increased as the middle class gets smaller and if minimum wage is increased more small stores will reduce staffs. My former wife was last hired and when minimum was raised to 2.75 she was let go. So we’ve had that experience. Talking to people, in driving across country, many have the same feelings on the lies coming from DC and slow economy.
Kasich and Cruz are proving that they are Masters Of Gaming The Rigged Political Game for all it’s worth.
The Political establishment of the Republican party is no better by providing the two Losers with the ability to overrule the will of the people.
Together they care nothing about the obvious fact that the people have openly REJECTED by popular vote both Kasich and Cruz as the Republican party nominees in 2016.
Oh yeah and by the way:
VOTE TRUMP IN 2016.