First and foremost, let me take a moment to wish you a safe and happy Veterans Day. If you currently serve or have served in the military in the past, I thank you for that. Or if you have family or friends who have served, please pass on my thanks as well.
Market Roundup
Now, to an important question at hand: Is the “stock market” up this year? That depends on WHICH market you mean … and the fact you can’t give a simplistic answer may be a problem for the future.
My colleagues and I have highlighted the unimpressive market breadth in a few different ways recently. But just how bad are things getting? Well, at midday today, I looked at a snapshot of all the major averages and indices on our Bloomberg terminal.
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| There’s a mixed picture when you look deeper into stock performance. |
The commonly cited S&P 500 was up marginally — 0.9% year-to-date. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up about 7.2%. But dig a little deeper and you see …
The Dow Industrials? Down 0.6% YTD.
The Dow Utilities? Down 8.7%.
The Dow Transports? Down 10.2%.
The New York Stock Composite Index, which tracks every single NYSE-listed U.S. stock, Real Estate Investment Trust, American Depository Receipt of foreign companies that trade here and so on? It’s down 4%.
The Russell 2000 Index, which includes many more small-capitalization stocks? It’s off 1.9%.
The Value Line Arithmetic index, which is an equal-weighted index of 1,700 companies in that firm’s investment survey? It’s down 3.7%.
Want some more troubling figures? The largest 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are responsible for 100% of the index’s gains this year, according to Strategas Research Partners. That compares with just 19% for the 2014 rise and 15% in 2013.
Separately, FactSet found that the 45 large-capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 are up about 8.5% so far. But the 292 companies with market caps between $10 billion and $50 billion are down 0.5%. The 118 companies with capitalizations of less than $10 billion are down 9.6%.
| “The equity market is being led by a very small handful of large-capitalization stocks.” |
Seeing a pattern here? The equity market is being led by a very small handful of large-capitalization stocks, rather than a broad-based group of sectors and companies.
I’m not even talking about the fact that commodity shares are weakening again, a worrisome sign because they helped cause the last major round of market turmoil this summer. I’m not talking about the fact that base metals like zinc and copper just fell to fresh lows not seen since the Great Recession, or that soft commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans are either already doing so or on the brink of it.
I’m not talking about the fact junk bonds are falling again, with the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) dropping below its Aug. 24 panic lows today. Or the fact hybrid bond/stock securities like convertibles are also losing ground — with the SDPR Barclays Convertible Securities ETF (CWB) on the verge of marking its fourth significant lower high since it topped out last summer.
I’m talking only about stocks. And they’re clearly showing deterioration behind the scenes. That’s why I remain cautious here with my investing strategy.
So what do you think? Does the stock market need to consume a tin of Altoids to deal with its bad breadth? Or am I making too much of these divergences? Should everyone in the U.S. just invest in a handful of stocks and enjoy the ride? Or should we take this as a warning sign of trouble ahead? Let me know your current thinking at the Money and Markets website.
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Retail spending and the state of the American consumer were the primary topics of discussion over at the website, following my piece yesterday about the curious underperformance of retail stocks.
Reader Chuck B. offered this analysis of the news: “People just don’t have the money to spend anymore. Inflation is on its last legs now, as the buying power of wages has shrunk, and the Fed doesn’t raise rates to combat deflation. Even imports, the source of so much we buy these days, are falling.
“What about all those new cars people have bought, and are trying to pay for — or not? How many of those subprime auto loans are going to eventually default, even with loaners forgiving payments here and there to delay the inevitable? How many lower wage employers are going to stay in business with the stupid $15/hour minimum wage laws being passed?”
Reader Donald L. added: “I submit sales are the result of a tapped out consumer. Total employment is down as a percentage of the population, and cost of living is up, no matter what the BLS says about its manipulated statistics. There is a general malaise about the economy that makes consumers fearful to spend. Worst of all, they see no future improvement no matter who wins next year’s election.”
Two other readers cited rising health care expenses as a key reason we’re not getting a boost from lower gas prices and supposedly stronger wages.
Reader Scott said: “Look no further than the wonderful ‘Unaffordable Care Act.’ Does anyone have any leftover cash to spend given the extortion in this debacle? Personally, my rates went up
23% this year and I am not in the mood to spend money on retail.”
And Reader Steve L. said: “Savings on gasoline don’t offset the effects of Obamacare. The out of pocket dollars are higher than ever before, and will keep pulling consumer spending down. Also, it has caused many to be under employed (30 hour/week). Dollars get spent on real needs, not the wish list.”
Thanks for weighing in. I think health care expenses are a definite area of concern, and have written about that topic extensively. I also believe the wage and jobs figures we got from the BLS may be understating the weakness we’re seeing on Main Street. Sales figures for the holiday shopping season will definitely be closely watched as a result – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come in disappointing.
Whether you agree or disagree doesn’t matter — I want to hear from you either way. Here’s where you can weigh in if you haven’t already.
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San Francisco Fed President John Williams joined the chorus of Federal Reserve officials all but promising “Bloody Wednesday” is coming on Dec. 16. He said there’s a “very strong case” to begin hiking short-term rates at that meeting.
Here’s the narrative that Wall Street is trying to sell you: It doesn’t matter that Chinese industrial production, imports, inflation, and GDP are all falling at the fastest rates, or growing at the slowest rates, since the depths of the Great Recession. What matters is that Chinese consumers bought a bunch of stuff online during “Singles Day” — sort of the Chinese version of Valentine’s Day or Black Friday.
I’m sorry, but I’m just not buying it. Industrial production rose only 5.6% year-over-year in October, which was the worst since 2008. Investment in fixed assets is rising only around 10.2%, the weakest since 2000.
But because retail sales rose by one-tenth of a percentage point, everything is supposedly wonderful again. Right. Every retailer (and the media) makes a big deal about their Black Friday sales here, but we end up learning that sales quickly drop off, that many of those sales are loss leaders, and that the hype otherwise rarely lives up to the reality.
Speaking of which, did you see this Wall Street Journal story that notes how “unsold goods are piling up on retailers’ shelves”? It goes on to say that inventories are building much faster than sales heading into the key holiday shopping season, which could lead to a flurry of discounting and earnings warnings in the retail sector.
So what do you think: Is the Fed finally ready and willing to act? Will this holiday season be a discount extravaganza? Is the “China is great because single people are buying doo-dads” narrative on point, or flimsy? Let me know what you’re thinking on these or other topics over at the website.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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Mike, you’ve shared some very insightful commentary on the fundamentals of the stock market. I have a short position which expires 11/13 and these last couple of trading days have been a rough ride with the immense volatility. Shorting the market isn’t for everyone, indeed, there are days if I’m one of those people. That said, I’ve got my money on the table and your points are all cogent and to the point. I believe investors fall into three camps in this market, hold on for a bumpy ride, hedge your position or sell what unrealized gains you have and put into a 1 basis point money market; it beats getting slaughtered if you have a shorter-term investment horizon.
Property taxes on a house I bought in mid 70s are twice the payment piti were at that time.
New bonds for everything school, industry incentives, all worked their way into property taxes. Inflation in the total tax structure has made fixed income folks, POOR.
Hi Mike, I’m not so glum as some who are speaking out.
I’m retired aged 73. Obamacare is NOT an issue for me at all. Medicare/Obamacare call it what you will, has not changed very much over the last 10 years. My medical costs pretty much stay the same from year to year. My wife and I have HMO coverage thru Humana. Zero premium. Great benefits.
My portfolio is mostly Mutual funds that lean to Technology (NASDAQ). My horizon is long term, no day trading. Portfolio performance has been OK, not spectacular. I believe that the US stock market will weather the stormy periods as it always seems to, dropping periodically and eventually coming back and setting new higher records, stronger than before.
I’m staying optimistic, for long term investment there’s no better place than the U.S. stock markets.
Thank God you are living under the Socialized Medicine” of Medicare….. Hopefully, soon, your children and their children will have the same benefits…… Just depends who wins, the Democrats (who do want it) or the Republicans (who don’t want it)…..
not true liar
That welfare program is going broke and adding Obamacare just makes the day of total govt bankruptcy,that much faster.This country has become a nation of whimp,idiots,entitled and lazy people.
Going with this trend, Maersk,the world’s largest shipping company delivers 15% of world shipping just laid off 4000 workers,17% of their workforce.Third quarter profits were down 61%. CEO said their forecast is down for the coming quarter.
I wonder how much the Maersk CEO’s salary went up while he was throwing his workers to the wolves.
Hey Tom, the message is that when Mearsk talks we should listen. This is the world’s largest container shipper; and what they are telling us is that shipments of finished goods are following the prior decrease in shipments of commodities which will also then result in further reductions of finished goods. Transportations are the canary in the coal mine; and it is time to evacuate the mine field.
Mike,
From March 9, 2009 until January 2015 the Stock Market did very, very well…. Since January, the Stock Market has gone NO WHERE……. There is ONLY ONE thing that has happened since January 2015 and that is the Republican takeover of the Congress…. Plenty of studies since 1929 have shown us that the stock market does much, much better under Democratic Administrations and Democratic Majority Congresses than under Republican (10% average annual returns (40 years) verses 0.04% average annual returns (36 years)…. I personally think one of the greatest SELL Signals since 1929 and 2007 will occur should one of the Republican contenders be elected President in 2016….. :(
Eagle, I’m a democrat myself, but please help me out with a history lesson…
How many times in history has the US had a democrat president in office for 8 years who was then followed by another democrat president?
For that matter, how many times in history has the US had a republican president in office for 8 years who was then followed by another republican president?
Hillary may have a lot of pull, but she’s going to need ALL of it and then some if she overcomes the ricochet politics of modern day!
Do you really think the Dems are gonna win 2016?
That matters little….. Just wait and see if my prediction comes to action, aye? You might want to consider investing the same way, based on history….
I am also a Democrat. I have a small business. The various levels of government are taking half if my net now. Then I have mounting compliance costs. I am taxed directly and then indirectly by having the currency debased. This cannot continue or there won’t be any small business. All I hear Is that I am selfish and not giving enough. Where does it end? I don’t need the help of either party. I need them to leave me alone. Jim
I know what We need. We need lower taxes, common sense regulation, no more deficit spending, and reasonable immigration policies. If I thought for one second the Democrats would do any if this I would vote for them. The only person looking me straight in the eye and telling me that’s what he will do is Ted Cruz. Jim
Agreed…I’m with you, Buddy!!!
Correction: It jumped me down a couple of comments somehow…maybe my error..
Eagle: “…wait and see if my prediction ….based on history…”
Agreed…I’m with you, Buddy!!!
FDR was elected four times….
Hi Mike
A measure some of my friends use is to say how much cash are you holding in reserve. Extreme confidence says one to two months. Most are now holding 3 to 5 years cash. Several reasons. 1. Don’t trust what’s happening at the moment. and 2. Some money to buy bargains when things get messy.
Howard, so glad to you and your friends. Most og this nations’ peoples livin from pay check to pay check…..3-5 years worth of cash? You got ta be KIDDING me!!
i hopes you nEVER has to join the real world man!!
These are friends running businesses.
Good advice. You seem to be a thinker and a planner, and a successful one at that.
This country is toast. Wages are an absolute joke. Hours worked used to be 40/wk now I think it’s around 25~30/wk. Our government has taxed and spent the middle class into extinction and will never come back. Most of the gov stats are so manipilated they are meaningless. No one I know can even afford to spend, just barely squeaking by living in poverty. There’s little hope of ever getting out of this mess when our government keeps taxing everything to death and spending money like it just falls out the sky. It doesn’t matter who gets in the White House as your wages keep buying less while at the same time every damn thing you need to exist just keeps going up (utilities, rent, food, taxes of all kinds, and the human tax-aka health care). If history is any guide, I think there is going to be a revolt by the populace which will lead to insurrection and a civil unrest that will make the civil war of the 1860’s look like a Sunday afternoon picnic. Basically this country has screwed me so that I’m not going to even try to work again and just get every kind of social benefit that I’m able to get. What the hell else can you do to survive in this country of endless GARBAGE, TRASH, and POVERTY!
Actually, Louie, there is something you can do….. Stop electing Republicans! The Middle Class has gotten crushed since the “Republican Revolution” in 1981 and ONLY the Rich have gotten richer… It is called Income Inequity…. It goes way up under Republicans and way down under Democrats. That is the very reason the markets have done so much better under the Democrats since 1929….
Sorry Eagle…beg to differ….It’s the votes of the “Electoral College” that matter, and I’m not so sure that they’re not bought and paid for……..
What are you talking about?
In the U.S., Eagle, the President is not elected by popular vote, but by the votes of Electors – one for each Senator or Representative of the various states. Some states require the Electors to vote according to the popular vote, some do not, but they may decide to vote however they wish. It is possible they could elect someone who did not receive a majority of the popular vote, though so far they haven’t done that. It is a screwy system, but that is how it is.
Louie
What this country needs is a new deal, but we have to vote for it. Many don’t realise that in the last 6 years we have added enormously to our national debt funding a system that is stuffed. No current serving Politian has an answer for this, and no party either. We need surgery in this country to fix years of waste and mismanagement.
This is one reason I do not want Career Politicians any more.
They do not do what the people want, they are only out for themselves.
I have emailed my Senator Bill Nelson R-Fl. a number of times about
voting on different Bills and Lo and Behold, he voted as he saw fit, against me.
Sorry folks, I am voting for Donald Trump in Nov 2016 if he is on the ballot.
I will never vote for Hillary. No more Career Politicians for me.
Revolution –
This is why the police are militarizing.
This is also why Obama want to get all the guns out of peoples hands.
You can not take over a country where the citizens are armed.
When the Government is ready for the take over there will not be any
police to aid us citizens.
A GUN IN YOUR HAND IS BETTER THEN 10 COPS ON THE WAY.
I sympathize, but with their advanced training, automatic weapons, high tech gear, and armored support the government tactical squads will cut us poor civilians to pieces. I too plan to go down fighting but I’m afraid it will amount to little more than a “banzai charge”. Jim
As to “making too much of these divergences,” as always, it depends on the individual investor’s risk tolerance…a topic you’ve dealt with in depth.
“Is the Fed finally ready and willing to act?” Has the foolish Fed flown into a box canyon, with not enough “engine” to fly out of it? Is the foolish Fed addicted to looking over the shoulder and watching the media, worrying over “Could a Fed Rate Hike Derail Emerging Market Currencies?” headlines? Perhaps the Fed should ask: Are emerging markets derailing a Fed rate hike!
What are the names of the “45 large-capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 are up about 8.5% so far”?
As long as there is a threat of rate increase corporate America will tighten the spending and hold cash. Had the rate been trickled higher without such hoopla for the past few years tge economy once again would be in growth regardless of China situation. The lack of credit to literally 90% of America may have propped up the market but in turn does vrry lil toward an economy based on credit. Forcing people into govt. programs and freezing theyre way of livelihood isnt the answer. Create a decent rate of interest resulting in a spread and stop annoucing that a bunch of evil men went into the bank held a loan originator by gunpoint and demanded a loan on the presence that he may have income next week and could possibly pay the bank back. Loan a man 100k with premium credit at a 2% spread because he has the money in the vault already? What does he need the loan for then? Risk aversion? Loan 2 men 50k at 4% that have half the money in the vault? What does he need the loan for then. Dont loan anyone anything and get all the money out of the vault? AH!
I believe that a major factor of our economic malaise was due the rapid growth of credit card consumer debt that was brought about by the high pressure marketing by credit card companies ,Their goal was to give credit to mainly those that could not pay of their balance each month paying high interest and penalties.
Consumer sales increased ,the demand required production of goods and services soared High,employment and capital expenditures ensued.
When the consumer credit cards were tapped out and instead of making purchases they were spending their disposable income on paying down their debt and the high interest costs.involved
When production and service demands fell ,this brought about unemployment .People lost their homes ,cars and appliance were seized..
The true end to our malaise will be consumer debt is brought down to the original levels which will allow the increase consumer demand
Good point sirandrew. There is a lot of talk about debt levels, but it doesn’t ever seem to take into account how credit cards allow ordinary people to run up substantial debt without going through the steps required with a mortgage or loan. Much of that debt, like much corporate debt, is likely never to be repaid. The issuing banks and credit card companies will be on the hook, especially if we have a 1929 style Depression… or worse.
I have not subscribed to this Weiss Research. Please take me off your mailing list. I have all the research sights I have personally chosen and can barely keep up with them. THANKYOU
I don’t think party politics has had much to do with out problems. Both parties gleefully spend money we don’t have.
I think the biggest single factor can be laid Jack Welch, former Chairman of GE. He introduced American industry to the “rank and yank” system of alleged management. It was his policy to rank all employees in grade, then fire the bottom 10% every year. This assured at least 10% unemployment among industrial workers and destroyed the middle class. It was all from a basic misunderstanding of inferential statistics. His mathematical ignorance, capped off with amazing arrogance ruined tens of thousands of lives all because of a flawed understanding of statistics. That pattern was replicated all over our industries. IBM did it; Dow did it; Exxon did it; Goldman Sachs did it; Microsoft did i, etc. Most of those are still doing it and defending a basic mathematical fallacy. It assumes that replacement employees may be selected from a pool that is better on average than the ones you already have. It assumes that your personnel department and hiring managers are incompetent at employee screening and selection. Finally, Microsoft has relented and discontinued this terrible system, along with a few others. Maybe the fever will break and another goofy management fad will fade away, along with the ruined lives of tens of thousands of human beings. Jack Welch should be ashamed.
Deflation is the Big Force . . I think we will go lower til the Biggest Market Crash of History . Keep raising cash and buy good quality dividend paying companies . . . . . Dark Clouds are forming in the horizon . . prepare accordingly and PRAY for America to Return to GOD , Jehovah . . . We do have Evil Greedy Crooks running and gaming the system . We are near or in the End of Times . . .
God help us
I think the political divide is really an argument over whether or not we will retain the Judeo-Christian ethic or embrace the secular state. Secondly it’s whether we believe in the sanctity of the individual or the needs if the collective. We are all going to have to choose and I really don’t know which way it’s going to go. Jim
WHAT I SEE & KNOW
I have noticed increased numbers of homeless in my hometown of Glendale, CA in recent years. Half of Glendale residents are foreign born today. In nearby Burbank, CA, 35% of city residents are foreign born ( Glendale News Press). Many U.S. cities have growing homeless populations, as well. Many American urban areas are populated by foreign majorities, who determine election outcomes. Usually they vote for Liberal Democrat who promise the most “free stuff”. Its a strong allure.
More and more Americans are falling through the cracks. We turn our heads so as not to see them and sweep the homeless under the rug. They are an embarrassment to the wealthy. We don’t take very good care of our Vets either, especially, wounded Vets. The V.A. is a real disgrace with the funding they do receive. Poor management.
America has relatively skimpy safety nets for the unfortunate and destitute ( Economic Non-Persons Who don’t consume). More people than ever are silently falling down to a lower economic level on the class ladder. The “Nanny State” actually does very little to feed or house the needy: Nothing, despite trillions in Federal spending every year and Billions spent in “Foreign Aid”, as well.
Its a disgrace we can not even take care of our own poor, yet we still try to take care of the WORLD? We owe nothing to the World at all. We should concentrate on our own country and leave the world to its own devices. Instead, we leave individuals to their own devices, whatever they may be.
We just have a very self-serving attitude in our government and political class. The Middle Class is pretty selfish too. Sad thing is, no future president is going to change any of this or turn it around. The trends will just continue in the same direction of the last 40 years; further downward. The Democratic political system can not overcome apathy, selfishness, and especially, the evolving secular society. We are thus cursed and don’t know why ( Blind).
BATTEN-DOWN THE HATCHES MY FRIENDS
Investors should dial-down risk and protect their capital for the next few years. We are going to experience a default cycle in bonds like we have not seen in ages. That will free-up a lot of money ( two trillion) for new business formation after the economic cycle bottoms. The Fed is not going to do anything in the meantime, much less raise interest rates. Janet Yellen is Kaput and out of “bullets”. Stocks are likely to be whacked too. Cash is about the only place to really hideout when it gets crazy. Hurricane season is coming again.
I have been saying for years, and no one listened, that the foundation of Economics is the People who are Poor = the Many
Money flows from the bottom up, NOT the top down.
Democracy is a system that is controlled by the Rich and Powerful, and to remain so, they knew that they had to control our Governors, history is filled with examples.
I quite remember, probably around 1950, watching a Movie filler, reference how great the future would become, it was logical.
What i did not realize, was as communication improved and distance shrank, the Rich and Powerful could control/steal over greater distances.
The TPP is the Logical extension.
Slowly People watched as Governments enabled and protected stealing in all its forms, thus, others said, what is wrong with me? Why should i not steal.
Other decided why should i work, it provides no future.
Thus society is breaking down, even War will not stop it.
i watched the young demonstrate citing the US first amendment, but they failed to extend it to others, why, because they no longer cared. They no longer believe. They had become a MOB.
Prime Minister Harper felt that he could win, by instilling fear, it failed. His Competition was abysmal, but he still lost.
Well said Peter….
Clearly these markets are being held up by the few large caps in each index. This is a reflection of the income disparity of the American populace.
The large well capitalized continue to grow utilizing all profitable sectors many of which the general populace, individual and corporate, that smaller less affluent cannot !!
This scenario cannot last due to the logistics of less and less spendable capital by fewer and fewer consumers. This is not to mention the double whammy of less tax revenue !
The FED and Treasury produce trillions more monopoly/fiat money and pass more and more into the banking, corporate, welfare pipeline causing massive product/commodity inflation( $ deflation) excluding more consumers !
Because of the rest of the world holding such a massive amount of our debt and $, this will produce a cyclical depressive stagflation from the rest of the world bidding up the resources and products !!
A large pert of the resolution problem is/will be our anti free trade/non capitalistic laws regarding pricing, subsidizing, and labor laws !!! Union ultra protective laws being a huge factor in lack of free trade/market determination of wages !!! This has pushed us out of many, many markets and has multiplied unemployment !!!!
Larson, you scour the globe and any statistic you can find that supports your permanent gloom and doom. Then you publish that BS like there’s no other information. I track the fifteen week SMA of the NYSE Composite, and contrary to your reporting, as of last Friday this line turned up. Seems like you also publish mostly comments of the sheep who follow the Weiss line of you know what. Keep trying to talk the market down, and when it does turn, you’ll trumpet your vision – never mind that you’ve been wrong since Cro-magnan days. People actually pay you for advice?
I think the Fed cannot tell the public what action it will take because of speculators. If the Fed is hinting of a December rate hike, then it most likely will not happen.
Mike: I do not think that the Fed will raise rates this year. The economy is too weak. Since 2009, our has only grown by an average of 2.2%. By any standard, this is anemic. The fed boxed themselves into a corner by not raising rates in 2011 when they had a chance. We are in a bubble economy. This recovery is fake. We still have not recovered in real estate, since housing starts have not reached pre recession levels. We need to address our structural problems; excessive taxation, regulation, litigation, neglected infrastructure etc. Regards, Robert Calabro.
Our government is controlling inflation with smoke and mirrors the rule: don;t count things like food. beef up 200% $1.49 bag of potato chips now $4.29 $1.00 Cantaloupe $4.00 auto parts A car battery up 125% It’s hard to figure what they are counting in order to get such low numbers, Oh Gasoline!! but it tastes terrible.
Ok, this is the season to be long and by the look of bulls to bears—selling pressure is
not there. If the fed raises rates on Dec 15th and the market is not falling before Dec 15
then panic sellers will probably come in. Might not be a big fall. Probably a controlled 2 to 5 % correction—-then a big rally the last 2 weeks of December. If the market has fallen 2-5% before Dec 15 then the fed probably will delay rate hike and of course the market will probably rally the last two weeks of December.
I Think we will have a major correction and need a major correction.to put every thing in balance.
“Wall of Worry”!
There is certainly a lot to worry about! The question is whether the downtrends in things such as commodities have reached bottom, or not. If so, we should begin to climb the worry wall very soon. That seems to be Larry Edelson’s schtick. ‘Hope he’s right!
Hi Michael,
The MACD or breadth problem of the market is YET ANOTHER in a MASSIVE number of canaries in the coal mine that point directly to a bond, currency and lastly a stock market crash right around the corner. Many of us who have been looking at the markets for literally decades have NEVER seen the conditions as bad as they are today from a macro economic fundamentals, technical, cyclical, demographic and geo-political standpoint on a WORLDWIDE basis…Katy bar the door!!!!!!!!!
GLENRON
We need that big, washout correction to shake the loose hands free. Only after a big correction that frightens investors can the Bull Market resume. In this instance, I am afraid its way better to be “safe rather than sorry”. Greedy investors chasing the Go-Go stocks will feel it, as no stock or sector is immune when the bear comes out. Correlated global markets will all rapidly tank, as in late August. One more Chinese devaluation might be the trigger or the blow-up of commodity trading giant Glenmore ( Glenron ?)
Didn’t like what you read from me before? Just like I told you when Obama told the FED NOT TO RAISE INTEREST RATES. It didn’t happen did it? You think he doesn’t control every aspect of this country? It was reported with proof by a news agency not controlled by the MSM on FOX network. The next thing you will be asking is what Bill or A thinks about major Corps controling the markets while the rest of stocks are deteriating and in a slide. And you will not print this as well.
Right on. All Fed chair people are puppets of the president in power. No rate increases until Obama and Yellen learn the election results.
have you noticed that china devalued the yuan, and subsequenly sold off us treasuries (not gold). then the revalued yuen higher. are they trying to exit us treasuries unnoticed? am i wrong.?
are they getting ready to have the sdr’s replace the dollar eventually as the world sivereign currency/
WHAT SHOULD WE DO?. THE MARKET IS GIVING US A TEMPORARY HEAD FAKE.
Awesome Yellen Meets Mr. Market in Back Alley?
Looks like the Bond Market will do the heavy lifting ( raising rates in response to growing default risks) sometime next year, or China will devalue again. Janet Yellen will be petrified, unable to go up or down. Either way, Dollar up, debt at home and abroad goes down. Interest rates in U.S. Dollars will probably disrupt markets in the next two years. Time to scale down debt and risk if you can. Margin Calls Galore in January? Awesome!!!
An important consuming commodity that is not being mentioned is the rocketing prices of drugs, even generics, that is hitting the pockets of the consumers, the insurance industry, and every business in the US, hurting the bottom line as the expenditures on health care increase, and along with the increasing dollar/foreign currency ratio, hurting our competitiveness abroad economically. Between the pharmaceutical companies, the insurance industry, the hospital industry, and the pseudo scientific uncovered remedies and treatments that are being hawked to the American public, we are all being economically raped. No one is listening to physicians who are bearing a lot of the stress of trying to treat our patients and get them through the pitfalls of the current system. The government has burdened us with regulations that would make your head spin, and has kept our fees flat for the past 10 years. Labor laws mandate strict adherence to working hours for our employees…. god forbid one stays a bit through lunch hour to help us with a patient, while the attorneys on TV ads hawk their litigation about fair labor practices, while no one ever gave a crap for the fact that I had to work 60 hour shifts at the Providence VA during my internship and residency for less than minimum wage, or have been wakened from sleep repeatedly in my professional career.
Interesting how the AMA set up your internship and residency to make you slave labor….. Did you know that Eisenhower wanted to take us to Socialized Medicine in the 1959’s? Back then the AMA was powerful enough to stop it….. Eventually we will go there as it works better….. I am English by birth and have witnessed both systems up close and personal and Socialized works better
I saw a study the other day that showed how much wealth has flowed to the Ultra Wealthy since the Republican Revolution in the early 1980’s…… Roughly, the richest 5% now have more wealth than the other 97%…… It is called Income inequity and it widens greatly under the Republicans and shrinks under the Democrats…..Last time income Inequity was this high was leading into 1929…. If FDR had not been elected, we probably would have had a revolution and the first to the firing squad would have been those Ultra Wealthy that called him a “Communist”… FDR was elected three times… Currently they are calling Bernie Sanders a “communist”, yet he is only espousing the policies the FDR practiced which brought us the greatest economic success in our history, until 1981 when we forgot and let the Republicans (Foxes) back into the hen house….. The ONLY reason we are broke today is that Reagan and both Bush’s gave HUGE tax cuts to their wealthy backers….. It also didn’t help that Cheney/bush drug us into Iraq when it was not budgeted for along with their Medicare Drug coverage….. Today’s deficit is smaller than when Obama took office… Look it up and consider NOT voting for the very people (the GOP) that have brought us to this mess……They are NOT the friends of the 97% regardless of what they say….. What is the old saying: the proof is in the pudding? Ask yourself: Are you better off today than you were in 1981? The 97% are not….. :(
The wealth inequity no longer contracts under Democrats. It has certainly widened under Obama, and TPP will make it worse. As for Sanders, he is not Hilary, so may get my vote in the Primary, at least. Would he, at 75 come election time, survive two terms in office? He is 13 years younger than me, but could he stand the strain? He’d better choose a good Vice.
Chuck,
Wealth Inequity has always widened under the Republicans…… The only difference here is that the Republicans have been strong enough to stop the Public Works Program that Obama tried to get through….. All the GOP was interested in doing was saving the Banks that caused the Crash… There is an old saying: “Follow the money”….. The vast majority of GOP donations comes from about 11 Billionaires while the majority of Democratic donations come from hundreds of thousands of citizens….. That said, who do you think will look out for who?
On another subject, are you 88? If I remember right, you stood duty in the Air Force….. That said, Thank You for your service, one day late….. I’m 70 and my duty time was Army (SF) 63-73…… We have a “killer” in our midst that is still taking my friends… It is called “Agent Orange”….. Just lost two Marine Corp. buddies from exposure to that killer and our war has been over for more than 40 years….
We both grew up in that Golden Era when the Middle Class was huge and most products were “Made In America”. I believe those days will come again. I think Sanders can take the pressure…..
Eagle495
“Today’s deficit is smaller than when Obama took office…” Really?????????? Take a step back and look at our borrowing limits.
Look at the annual deficits, genius….. And consider voting for a Representative who is willing to return the tax rates on the 3% to where they were in 1981 when Reagan gave them HUGE tax breaks and the deficits began to explode because he had NOT the guts to cut Federal Spending by the concurrent amount of those tax cuts!… :(
Look at the annual deficits, genius….. And consider voting for a Representative who is willing to return the tax rates on the 3% to where they were in 1981 when Reagan gave them HUGE tax breaks and the deficits began to explode because he had NOT the guts to cut Federal Spending by the concurrent amount of those tax cuts!… :(
Eagle 495 was typo or was that a Berra-ism “The richest 5% ……the other 97%??????
Richest 3%….. Look it up if you disbelieve….
looks like we’re in the “bear trap.”
I am tired of reading simplistic BS that A. Demos gave middle class wealth and B. Republicans took it all away. Obama with his 0.005% interest rates are raping the middle class and the last time I looked… he is a die hard Democrat. These super ZERO interest rates are candy to the upper 1%, who like Goldman gave more money and support to Obama and the Democratic party than republican candidates. Bill the pedophile Clinton signed into law, new rules that nullified the Glass Stegal Act and opened FREE one-way trade with China. The idiots who hate republicans should stop watching Oprah re-runs during the day and bone up on history. Do not forget Truman and Johnson are the jerks who got us into the Vietnam war, financed with debt that has really never been repaid. It is sad that Americans love war…since it is blood fuel for the stock market. I hope and pray the stock market crashes big and hard. The time has come to punish the top 1%.
You must no have one cent invested in the markets or you would be thanking Obama….. Perhaps you have a 401-K….. Have you checked it’s value since March 9, 2009? The Republicans brought 1929 and 2007 and the Democrats (FDR and Obama) cleaned up those messes from 1932 and 2009 forward…. It really is simplistic, honest… The GOP gives to the richest 3% and the Democrats give to the other 97%… Turn off Limphog and do your own research..
There has NEVER, in America’s history, been a Stock Market Crash on the watch of a Liberal Administration with a Liberal Majority Congress, NEVER… Look it up!…. :(