All eyes are on Great Britain today and tomorrow as the Brits decide whether or not to declare independence from the European Union (EU).
Market Roundup
Meanwhile, central bankers around the world are bracing for the potential fallout from volatile currency, stock and bond markets. It should be quite a show.
Unlike our elections this November, where CNN and FOX will be tripping over each other to declare an early winner before U.S. polls even close, we’ll have to wait patiently for the outcome of the Brexit vote.
The British do things by the book, after all.
While there will be plenty of speculation about the vote throughout this evening, polls don’t actually close until 10 p.m. local time and the vote counting doesn’t begin till after midnight in London.
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| It’s decision day in the U.K. |
Throughout the wee hours of Friday morning, results will trickle in from different regions of the U.K. And with the outcome too close to call already, we may not know the final verdict until just before financial markets open in New York.
This event is tailor-made for around-the-clock foreign-exchange markets. And you can bet that die-hard forex traders from the big hedge funds to retail currency players will be busy pulling all-nighters.
George Soros, who famously “broke the Bank of England” decades ago betting against the British pound, has warned the currency could collapse 20% if the “Leave” vote prevails.
The yen, euro and dollar will also be in play. Global stocks, bonds and commodities will also be turbulent in the wake of the vote tally, perhaps with sharp moves in both directions.
At the end of the day, the Brexit brawl will pass into history just like the Grexit drama before it. What will remain is the sad state of affairs within the EU.
Populists all across Europe are agitating for independence from the bureaucracy (some would say tyranny) of Brussels. The fact that a nation as large and important as the U.K. would even bring it to a general referendum is damaging enough.
British billionaire Peter Hargreaves put it best in a recent Bloomberg interview when he said: “Every year in the EU, it gets more political, it gets more legislative, more regulative; we don’t seem to get very much benefit from it … when there were only nine countries (in the EU) it was 30% of the world’s GDP, now there are 28 and it is only 17%.”
| “Talk about a union that has lost its way!” |
Talk about a union that has lost its way! No doubt he will be casting his ballot to “Leave”!
Never fear, the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready with abundant liquidity to counter any potential Brexit shock. But as is typically the case with central bankers, it’s peddling the wrong medicine.
And, the Bank of England made $3.5 billion in liquidity available to U.K. banks last week, just in case.
Plus the ECB’s quantitative easing campaign has pumped 800 billion euros worth of excess liquidity into the eurozone as a whole.
But the EU isn’t suffering from a lack of liquidity … it’s a fundamental lack of solvency that is at issue. Because many of its biggest banks, and individual member states, are practically bankrupt already.
And when confidence is finally lost, no amount of central bank money-printing will be enough to paper over the crisis that will surely follow.
Good investing,
Mike Burnick
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The Asia-Pacific region’s private wealth topped that of North America for the first time, according to a report by Cap Gemini. The assets of millionaires in Asia-Pacific countries jumped 10% to $17.4 trillion, topping North America’s $16.6 trillion. Wealth in Europe increased 4.8% to $13.6 trillion. Overall global wealth rose 4% to $58.7 trillion. According to Bloomberg News, China’s millionaire population rose 16%, the biggest rise in the survey. Nevertheless, the U.S., Japan and Germany have more high-net-worth individuals than does China.
Nearly 70% of voters say they think Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump should step down as chairman and president of the Trump Organization while he’s involved in politics, a new CNN/ORC Poll finds. It breaks down to 56% of Republicans, 71% of independents and 77% of Democrats saying he should step down. Even 55% of those who say they would vote for Trump against Hillary Clinton say he should step aside while his career in politics continues.
Should Trump give up control of his businesses while running for president? What should he do with his businesses if he wins? Comment on that matter or anything else below.
The Money and Markets Team
Mike Burnick, with 30 years of professional investment experience, is the Executive Director for The Edelson Institute, where he is the editor of Real Wealth Report, Gold Mining Millionaire, and E-Wave Trader. Mike has been a Registered Investment Adviser and portfolio manager responsible for the day-to-day operations of a mutual fund. He also served as Director of Research for Weiss Capital Management, where he assisted with trading and asset-allocation responsibilities for a $5 million ETF portfolio.
{ 51 comments }
In Trump I “TRUST” and if you are a clear thinking American you should do the same.
RAY
I agree Trump speaks from the Heart no teleprompter here !
Trump is the poster child of what’s wrong with America. He made his money the easy way, leveraging other people’s money to have fun building his businesses while handsomely paying himself. Once his personal pockets were stuffed with cash, he claims business bankruptcy (he, he gets to keep his personal wealth). What a scam. Have you seen the pictures of his family with the gold lions and so forth. Seriously, how can any American support him?
Why not someone like Gary Johnson? Yeah, he’s not perfect. However, he is an admirable business man having successfully built a business from ground up. He has some good ideas on tax reform, educations, etc.
Even if the BREXIT vote is for getting out, it still has to be approved by Parliament. Most MPs are for staying in the EU. Of course, if voters are heavily for exiting, even many pro-Unionists might change their “opinions”. They are politicians, after all, and know constituents might remember when the next election comes around.
Our country’s most respected constitutionalist has already said that when the will of the people clashes with the will of parliament, the will of the people must prevail.
Trump already said that he will give his business to his children. Why are you even bringing it up?
It would be better to focus on the trail of corpses, death and destruction directly attributable to Hillary Clinton and her husband.
Trump is not the perfect candidate but he is neither a criminal nor murderer.
Joseph
My take is that many Brits have had it with the EU and existing under its governance. Now is their chance to say “we have had enough and want out!”
Dear Mr. Trump-
I am voting for you.
You cannot be President of Trump Enterprises and President of the United States at the same time.
(Did I mention that you’ve got my vote.)
Sincerely,
Ron Gibala
Ditto’s Trumps got my vote too !
No man can serve two Masters! The one will always be more important than the other! Trump should have step down from his business platform when he became the presumptive nominee about two months ago. He is now at a T junction – step out of business or step down as a politician. There is no middle way! Time is of the essence now!
If Trump wins, he will allow his children to run the business. I am sure that he has the appropriate council to guide him in this process. Regards, Robert Calabro.
His sons and daughter might be ready to head, because they are all working in top positions in his organization already and all of them are very well educated. They wee also raised by Trump in business environment ,starting them from the bottom to understand the foundation of his business. He is a good father and mentor to his children and none of them ever got in trouble. For rich kids, they were not spoiled.
Surely the American people are not dumb enough to elect Donald Trump as our President in the November general election.
Call me dumb but Sovereignty is just as important to me as it is to the citizens of Britain .
and the american people would have to be completely stupid to put the corrupt liar HILLERY CLINTON in control of this great country AMERICA
I don’t know, they were sure stupid enough to vote for Obomooo twice. Yep just like John Grouber, or whatever his name is, “but for the stupidity of the American voter we would have never got Obamacare passed”. And oh what a glowing success it has been, we got to keep our own doctors, our own insurance and all our premiums went down $2500 a year. What a joke we the people have become. Just maybe just maybe enough will wake up long enough to vote to exit Washington i.e.: Vote Trump.
Currently, he is a private businessman, & will be unti a President is selected. Which congressman or governor was required to give up office while running for President? Get serious.
Two subjects
(1) Europe. More countries = more regulation, laws, bureaucracy. That shows the problems of any cooperation, no matter if it is a democracy, a republic, or a joint venture.
respecting minorities is a noble goal but having the minorities block everything is awful. In the German parliament they used to have a rule that parties with less than 3% of the votes would not represented at all. That was a lesson learned from the Weimar Republic where splinter parties blocked anything and everything and finally gave rise to the Nazis who promised to overcome that gridlock.
(2) Mr. Trump is a clown, though he may be almost as dangerous as Hitler. The US is in the grip of special interest groups and the general population is sick and tired of it. They had enough of Wall Street, the Evangelicals, the tea party, the NRA, the red necks, and many more. Mr. Trump uses these sentiments in a bad way and he would make the current nightmare even worse.
Yes, he should hand control of his fake empire over to some hedge fund manager or some economist. They can do the bankruptcies for him. Or may be they can reorganise his mess of companies and make the profitable.
Trump is not electable so find something else to worry about.
Why isn’t Trump electable ????
If trump doesn’t step down if elected we will have no problem impeaching him for any reason! But if he doesn’t step down he will be as bad as crooked Hillary!
He should put his business on hold while he is our president. That is a hands on, full time job & he needs to devote his full attention to serving the American people. He can simply begin where he left off once he is no longer in office.
When the Honorable Mr Donald J. Trump “Wins” by a Landslide* of ‘Popular-Votes*, his Children will keep his Business* going~ quite well!
I believe that “Trump” should not be in control of his business while campaigning for the Presidency. However, after the election he can go back to his old routine while President Hillary Clinton guides the country.
ok bert just what is the great liar in chief going to guide us into more lies and complete ineptnesss hillery cant be trusted and she wants to do another 4 more yrs just like obama OBAMA promised alot and gave us nothing but lies he is the worst president the united states has seen in a 100 yrs that is until hillery clinton is president
Good thoughts!
The EU lost its way and its last shred of credibility round about the 2nd or 3rd of November 1993. It’s my sincere hope that Britain exits and that then the rest of the row of dominoes will also fall.
the Brexit referendum means absolutely nothing. First its non-binding. If the vote is to leave then the politicians will fall all over themselves trying to make sense of the exit and try to come up with a way to make it harmless and of course blameless. That will take years. By that time the EU will be on its way to bankruptcy anyway and Britain will have its hands full dealing with its new immigration headache. Cameron made a huge mistake offering up this referendum and he may just lose any political clout he has left. If the vote is to leave, buy on the selloff. If its to stay, sell on the rally.
The Brexit vote is advisory, and short of dissolving the government and holding elections, a vote to leave will be ignored: the current government is strongly pro-remain, and seems unlikely to be toppled by this advisory referendum. So, this is a tempest in a teapot, whichever way it goes.
See my reply to an earlier post. Cameron has already resigned. And if any MPs did try to subvert the will of the electorate they would be toast at the next general election.
Your comments are made by someone who obviously does not understand democracy. When the British vote the politicians have no choice but to follow that vote and the vote cannot be rigged. Although the vote out will not be good for me personally in the short term I am pleased that the people made the right choice …out.
If you want to get anything done,ask a very busy person I think trump can handle both.
This union will have its day. Maybe 25-30 years down the road when things settle down…maybe more.
With all of the unwanted immigration problems and poor economic conditions of Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal….. this is just not the time IMO….at least for the Brits.
If they don’t leave with this first vote…it should happen within the next 2-3 years with a followup.
Yes, Mr. Trump should step down from involvement in his corporations now and let his well-groomed sons and daughters take charge. Should he somehow prevail in Nov., the businesses should be placed in as blind a trust as possible with him obviously replaced.
wHAT DID THE kENNEDYS DO WITH THEIR FORTUNES WHEN JFK WAS ELECTED ?
Trump has already previously said his family has been responsible for the day to day operations of his business while he’s been involved in his campaign. An opinion vote is thus irrelevant. When and if he should become president that would be the time for him to officially step away.
I think all politicians should be required to relinquish direct operational control of their business assets when accepting office. That includes Bill and Hillary’s involvement in the Clinton foundation which clearly has benefited from their political dealings and friendships. That said, while Donald could see some minor gain in his net worth from his stint as president he has little to gain, he’s already more wealthy and more famous than nearly every past president. His inability to manage his own financial empire is likely to suffer as president more than his meager presidential salary would contribute. I think he genuinely wants to improve the lot of the United States and its legal residents by running our country and economy like a real business. Managing a multi-billion dollar business is great preparation for managing an economy. Definitely more qualifying than being a community organizer, or do nothing State Senator, or failed Secretary of State
trump is the worst canadad i ever saw and im 86 gold is going HIGH and dow is down 500plus you wrote a good article thabnk you
When Trump wins the presidency he should have the company fully transferred into the Trump kids hands for them to run without interference from their father. He could write his own clause to establish board position 8 years from the date of taking office or date of term period ends, which ever happens first.
As the Brits had the courage to vote the hard way which is also the only reasonable way to vote to take back their country, Trumps chances of winning the presidency just jumped by 40% in my opinion. The year of standing up for independence and a change has arrived.
Brexit wins!!! Pop the champagne cork. The working class has just given the ruling class their walking papers. Lets hope it becomes a world wide movement
Spot on. Right across the traditional heartlands of the Labour Party there were huge majorities for Leave; the Leave vote was over 70% in some places.
Iron Lady was proved correct once again.
Whoops!
Mike, you haven’t been watching Britain closely enough.
Despite large amounts of money paid into the Remain campaign by Goldman Sachs and their dubious friends, despite nearly constant pressure from the BBC( partially funded by the EU) and despite constant threats by the Government against the electorate(such as-we’ll reduce state pensions if you vote Leave) the majority of Brits have stood up for what is right for their nation.
In many cases the poorer voters will suffer financially, yet they still went ahead and voted to Leave.
One gets a feeling of pride that so many have stood up for what is right in the midst of a cynical money grasping world.
He has people that are capable of taking care of business and more on top of those people, just like he will surround himself with the best people to get this country back on it’s feet, and the best military advisors, etc. At least the military won’t have to ask if they can shoot when it is clear they have imminent threat. ( as printed in the wall street Journal )
Many times I have said that “The concept on which the EU is based is like wanting to have your cake and eat it too.” Congradulations to the British for standing up for their country against those who would and try to take their liberty away from them, and for showing us how to wretch it back. Thanks for your leadership and showing the world what it takes to be free.
Trump may no be the ideal candidate but he is head and shoulders above Hillary!! I cannot in good conscience vote for a candidate who has shown such arrogance and total disregard for information security, as well as highly questionable speaking fees and foreign donations. But more importantly, this election is not about the next four years , it is about the Supreme Court and the next 20 to 30 years.
When Trump wins he will cease active day to day management of Trump companies. As for now. some people can walk and chew gum at the same time. Some can’t. Seems those that can’t think it isn’t possible. When people are attacking Trump’s business because of his Presidential bid, it seems wise to have the most experienced person at the helm. And that is Donald J. Trump. But, the Brexit vote takes two years before it is an actuality. In the meantime by Britain’s parliamentary system a vote could take place to replace the current governing party. If that party is more concerned about countries in the “realm of the crown” than profligate members of the European Union, Britain will do quite well.
Good move Brits , the ( Rich) ) as the heads behind EU that think of them selves as kings of the EU have taken a hit . The Eu Is losing one of the smartest nations in the world . That little island has more sence then the big boy countries in the world .
The US should take a stand at this time to think of ourselves also because we are losing our way to socializism faster then most people believe . Intitlement is taking over our nation . I have never seen in my 75 years two more unlike able people as our choice for president , but I have to believe that Trump would be the lesser of the to evils . Hillary is just evil !!! I have read things about her that if just a third is true she should never have the ability to lead this wonderful nation . She and Billybob are just corrupt in my opinion, if it walks like duck and acts like duck it’s a DUCK . The last 7 and half years should have convinced everyone that this nation has to think of it’s own people until we get back on our feet . Are you happy that the debt ???? as of this morning is appoching 20 trillion?????
In God we trust oh I’m not supposed to say that . Ok move to another country and don’t look at our dollars anymore .
BuddyBoy
Donald Trump is the right person to be president of the United States of America now. The world desperately needs leadership after all these weak indecisive Obama leadership and I believe Donald Trump is right man to provide this. Hillary Clinton has a lot questions to answer regarding her private email scandal, Clinton Foundation dealings etc.
Just a query about Donald Trump how can he run his businesses while at the same time having the most important job in the world? Surely he should devote all his energy into the most important job in the world.
Since the Donald seems to regard the present campaign as just another ego trip within a series of achievements, it should be treated similarly to all his enterprises: Just step down from all !
I am surprised at the large number of responders who support, let alone are ready to vote for, this hip-shooting irresponsible and partly ignorant demagogue. Would you like to look in the mirror on the day after and, like Britons today, ask “What have we done?!” ?