|
One week ago, I wrote that “Tech Bubble II” could be the latest investor threat. Today, the Wall Street Journal warned it may now be running out of gas.
My article pointed out that billions and billions of dollars have been pouring into Silicon Valley. Venture capital firms have been throwing money at so many early stage and fly-by-night companies that more than 100 were recently valued at $1 billion or more – earning the “unicorn” nickname.
That was all well and good for the VCs, and publicly traded technology stocks, when the markets were strong and optimism reigned. It allowed companies and their private investors to “cash out” via Initial Public Offerings. That, in turn, made everyone richer and created even more wealth that could be recycled into the tech sector.
But, according to the Journal, the gravy train may be running out of track. Previous tech offerings are falling on their face, with 2015 IPOs losing 15% on average from the closing prices on their first trading days. That’s causing investor interest to dry up, forcing private companies to yank offerings or not even bother to try.
|
|
The flow of investment money into tech companies is fading. |
Result: Tech offerings comprised only 11% of all IPOs this year. That’s the smallest market share since 2008, when global stock markets were crashing. The total number of tech IPOs is on track to be the lowest since 2009.We’ve already seen overall stock outflows surge in the wake of the recent market turmoil. Research firm EPFR Global just reported that investors yanked $46 billion from stock funds worldwide over the past four weeks, while Lipper said U.S. stock funds bled $16.2 billion in the most recent week alone.
Some investors use big fund outflows as a contrary indicator, and try to buy stocks when outflows jump. But there’s no way to tell if outflows have peaked … or if even-bigger ones will follow afterward.
To me, the facts suggest that investor dissatisfaction is rising fast in tech. That, in turn, means another wave of selling in the overvalued sector could be coming down the pike. So if you’re looking for a sector to lighten up on, or position for profits from additional downside if you’re more aggressive, tech could fit the bill.
What are your thoughts here? Are you concerned about the derailing of the tech IPO gravy train? Will it only hurt private equity investors and wealthy company insiders? Or will the gloomier sentiment and deflating valuations spill over significantly into publicly traded tech stocks too? Any thoughts on how you can protect … or build … your wealth if this trend gathers steam? Share them over at the Money and Markets website.
|
What’s next for Federal Reserve policy? Will bankers finally start going to jail for their transgressions? Where are stocks headed next, and what should you do about it as an investor? Those were the questions you tried to answer online.
On the subject of bank perp walks, Reader GMA took a skeptical view on the move: “Isn’t it interesting that the Justice Department reached this state of resolve just as the statute of limitations ran out on those complicit in the last set of financial atrocities that brought the system to the brink? Is it any wonder voters are looking outside the usual candidate streams for future leadership?”
Reader Donald L. also warned of potential unintended consequences if the government gets too aggressive, saying: “It’s difficult enough now to get banks and financial institutions to commit to venture proposals or even normal finance operations. Can you imagine what will happen if executives are subject to the prospect of a ‘perp walk’ if some overzealous bureaucrat embarks on a witch hunt?”
Meanwhile, Reader Frebon said the following in reference to Fed policy and markets: “I think the Fed is actually going to do it next week. I think that no matter what, the play is the TBT, double-short long term bonds.
“China is and will continue to sell Treasuries to prop up their economy. Also, the velocity of money coming our way with an increase will allow the government to keep on borrowing because they have no clue how to have fiscal responsibility.”
How will markets react if Frebon is right? Reader Stu weighed in by saying: “I share your concern, Mike. Everyone should be very wary right now and position themselves for this ‘new market paradigm’ as you so aptly put it. There are many converging forces in play at present that are on a collision course. Unfortunately, it’s no longer a question of IF, it’s a question of how soon.
“Fed increase or not, the financial world as we know it will still start unraveling very shortly, beginning with the interest-sensitive derivative markets. In my opinion, next week’s release of the Fed decision will be the most important it has ever made.”
But Reader Dan M. said he is planning to power through any potential volatility for various reasons. His take: “I am typically a buy and hold investor. I have several positions with nice gains and I am in the highest tax bracket. Any sale generates a 23.8% tax.
“If I wait out the carnage for six-to-nine months, I miss the dividends, representing another 2-5% in lost income. So, if I am absolutely positive my stock will drop 40% then I would sell. Otherwise I will continue to ride it out.”
Thanks for all the perspectives. My biggest concern today is that any coming decline could be worse than many imagine, given how equities are still dramatically out of whack with where other capital markets are trading.
The huge gap between stock averages and interest rate swaps, carry trade indices, emerging markets, and so on doesn’t GUARANTEE we’ll see a major “catch down” incident. But it is definitely a significant possibility, and that’s why I’m more cautious and defensive now than I’ve been at any point since the last bear market.
Take that for what it’s worth – and feel free to tell me whether I’m crazy or spot on at the Money and Markets website.
|
The Iranian nuclear deal will not face a Congressional veto, after a procedural vote in the Senate fell two votes short of what was needed to advance that process. President Obama’s accord is therefore guaranteed to take effect.
Call them the “BRICs,” the “Next 11,” or whatever else you want. But no matter the moniker, the emerging markets are sinking fast. This Bloomberg story notes that Goldman Sachs’ Next 11 investment theme is bombing in particular. Markets in the countries Goldman bundled into that group (Turkey, Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, etc.) are falling even faster than the BRICs and developed markets.
This will always be a solemn day of remembrance for our country, given how many lives were lost 14 years ago on 9/11. But it’s worth noting that lower Manhattan has been reborn in the wake of the terrorist attacks, Osama bin Laden is dead, and so much healing has taken place since then. That is all good for America, and something we should be proud of and take great satisfaction in.
Any thoughts on this anniversary of 9/11 that you’d like to share? What about the possibility of a new tech bubble starting to deflate? Does that have you worried about falling tech stock prices? Share your thoughts on these or other topics at the website.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
{ 62 comments }
Mike, you could be crazy, and still be spot on. The markets themselves are of doubtful sanity.
The threat to the tech market may be having an effect on the California real estate market. Houses are suddenly not moving. And then the “Gee I just bought this house and it is already under water.”They are staying on the market a lot longer and nobody seems to be looking. And what is all the people from Arizona showing up in the SF Bay Area? Several high tech firms are heading for greener pastures.
Mike, the crooked bankers might finally be going to jail, because we have a different Attorney General, and an honest one. I think prosecution and jail may be the only way to save the world from total disaster. When there is corruption at the top, it seeps all the way down through the economy, and that is what was happening in America. People started seeing bankers get away with shady deals, and the rest of society started thinking if the bankers could get away with their shenanigans, the rest of society could, too. “Get yours while you can” became the watchword and I saw the development of corruption all the way down to local businesses.
If she were honest……Hillary would have indicted by now.
If Hillary were honest…..she wouldn’t be a politician.
Good one Chuck!!!
If Hillary were honest she wouldn’t be Hillary…!
Mike, 9/11 will always be a somber day for me to remember, as on that day I was on a US Air flight from Charleston, SC up to Washington, DC for a meeting at the Pentagon in the very wing that was hit by the plane! I was very lucky to have been on another task at the time and stayed late in the office the night before to complete another task, and departed the early the next day, but did not make the early morning flight, but the 2nd flight out of Charleston for DC. I walked out of the Reagan National Airport, just as the plane hit the Pentagon.
Lucky me, as I’m alive and retired, & enjoying life, while investing in the stock market. Since retiring in 2006, I have tripled the value of my investment.
I am afraid that the violence around the world will continue to escalate. I am afraid for the world in which we live. I am afraid for the young that may have to go through unsettled and worrisome times in raising a family. Gone are my days of unlocked doors and leaving the keys in the car. Life is not about an accumulation of wealth, it’s about being able to merely paying your bills and watching your family grow. And I am fearful of even doing that in the future, living in a world with no safety for a family.
Unfortunately, your may be justified, paul. And I fear what government will do in response. The more safety government provides, the more we become it’s servants – or maybe slaves.
We’re living in a sick society filled with people who would not directly steal from us…
But who are willing to demand the government do it for them…!
SYNTHETIC BULL MARKET
Facebook, a clearly another “overvalued” ( P/E of 83 ) tech stock has stabilized, but not going up so fast for now, at least. It did not correct as much as APPLE, a low value former tech stock. Facebook does remain much more profitable and has way more cash flow. So, the market has not yet adjusted to reality ( real earnings).
The slow-down with Tech. IPO’s this year may suggest a change in the wind, but its not a confirmed trend ( to lower valuations). Its possible the Alibaba IPO a year ago marked the top of the market, as far as tech goes anyway. Time will certainly tell. This process might drag-on for many more months ( well into 2016) and a few more legs down on the stock market indexes, as well. So, remain skeptical that a bear market is really here, as yet. Its possible, anything is these days.
Just saw something rather frightening. You might have noticed that Brazil’s bonds were downgraded this week to junk status. This means that all Brazilian corporate bonds are now junk, including $56 billion in Petrobras bonds among others. All these bonds must now be unloaded by bond funds into junk bond funds. About 2.5% of the world’s bonds from Petrobras alone. What will that mean for stocks? Add it to the tech bubble Mike talks about above. Bear market, baby. Bear market. Larry Edelson is looking better all the time.
Pardon: I should have said Brazil’s country status is now junk (BBB- if I recall), which means all Brazilian corporate bonds are now junk, and Petrobras issues about 2.5% of high yield bonds – not total bonds. Their stock is headed for zero, by the way. If they default it would gravely harm the world bond markets. ‘Won’t happen instantly, of course, but highly likely, if not certain. I wonder what Brazil’s downgrading will mean for next year’s Olympics?
Hey OSCARR, they say Janet is going to push the button next week. What’s up? Push a button, that is the last thing on her mind. I’M sure she hasn’t had a good night sleep in days. The EMOTIONAL FATIGUE is getting to her. Next time you see her talk, check out the body language. She looks tired. And If Congress doesn’t pass a new spending bill in the next couple of weeks, the Federal Government will shut down on October 1. is also in the MIX. It’s time for the Millennials to take control of their future RUN for OFFICE and change history for the better. GREED was the lifestyle during my childhood but the world has change. WEALTH TRANSFERENCE will not be denied.
Prayer is inspirational when done by a priest…
Frightening when done by the Fed Chairwoman…!
The fact that politicians are threatening to shut down the government on Oct 1, is further proof that they don’t give a damn for anyone else. All that matters to them is their own feelings of power.
HEY OSCAR IF THATS YOUR ONLY HOPE OF A SAVINGS PLAN IF That’s your retirement future your screwed WE HAVE WEALTH TRANSFERENCE NOW ITS CALLED TAXES ………… STATE TAXES FEDERAL TAXES SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES PROPERTY TAXES GAS TAXES get the hint Oscar it not happening dream on maybe you should buy a golden goose from some other liberal
Oscar Wilde: Experience is the name we give to our mistakes.
The Fed will NOT raise interest rates any time soon! As I have said in the past, the Fed follows the market and not the other way around. Rates must first raise “on their own” and then the Fed will adjust it’s targets. They have been trying to talk rates up for a long time without much success!
As the saying goes, “What you think is what you get” in other words you make tangible whatever you believe. Negative thinking gets negative results. The Weiss crowd seems to always put a negative twist on the outlook. Excuse my directness.
Root
In my opinion, the Weiss Group was less negative curing Cheney/bush…. Me thinks there is a bit of a political element in their outlook, which seems to not take account of past economic history relative to the Political Party in office…. In my opinion, that seems to attract a lot of people of the same mindset, who also appear to not pay attention to historical economics… That could have been a real disadvantage relative to recognizing the rally from March 2009 until January of 2015…..
Truth be known, Americans have likely elected the most corrupt government in existence today or that ever existed… Truth be known it started many years ago and it seem to NOT matter if it was a Democrat or Republican…
The more we blame Republicans or Democrats… The less we remember they’re both to blame…!
The two parties are not Democrat and Republican. They are organizations in lockstep with the government and NOT the people. The U.S. government HAS BECOME an enemy of the people.
You got it Dr. If anyone needs to learn some history it would be ol Mike S.. ROFLMAO.
Mike wants to be Chair of the DNC…
It may or may not be the most corrupt government ever, but it is certainly corrupt enough to destroy our nation if we don’t get rid of the current crop of politicians who run things for their own profit and that of their supporters, regardless of party affiliation.
Gee “Doc” weren’t you the one that commented last week about studying History, so that you can observe it happening again? If the “Government” is such an “enemy”, why are you still living here? Surely in the pursuit of your “Dr”, you must have found a place where you are more comfortable, aye? And if you are not living in the U.S., why would you even care? I’m inclined to believe that you are NOT a student of history, as you seem not to be able to grasp that one has brought prosperity to the masses (Ya that’s you “mule”) and one has taken it away… It really is that simple…. If you study history, that is.:(
Mike S. Stay in your hamster wheel; it will give you good protection when capitulation sets into the market.
Mule, I’ve discovered common sense is a flower that doesn’t grow in everyone’s garden.
I read with interest your analysis of the Great Recession being a child of the lack of cash and the role hedges played in freezing up the banking system. The over expansion of the housing credit market sparked the that downturn. I would appreciate your thoughts on the role that these hedges may come into play with the current currency wars. Hedging against currency swings has long been a major multi-national staple. As there is insufficient capital to support these hedges, it would seem on the face that they could drive an international collapse as the dollar strengthens. I see more interest in gold as being the .preferred standard standard.
Using electronic currency and eliminating cash has been decried as a totalitarian ploy to steal from its citizens, but my concern is elsewhere. With electronic currency government can manipulate supply at a keystroke and produce inflation for some and cash shortages to others. Further, with our poor cyber warfare protections, hostile governments could do the same. With focused inflation, even cash would be no refuge.
Mike, I have every confidence that when the U.S. government permits us to use “their” new digital currency, there will be the highest security in place so that only the government can manipulate it.
Additionally, I suspect there will be very harsh punishment for tinkering with “their” digital currency, so perhaps since beheading seems to becoming more fashionable these days it is cheap, quick and will likely stand any tests thrown at it by a once moderate supreme court which is on a fast downhill slide into progressivism.
Every hedge has a cost, so Mike before you decide to use, or if you already do hedging, you must ask yourself if the benefits received from it justify the expense.
You’ve got to keep in mind, the goal of hedging isn’t to make money but to protect from losses…!
The cost of the hedge, whether it is the cost of an option or lost profits from being on the wrong side of a futures contract cannot be avoided…. This is the price you have to pay to avoid uncertainty.
Bare in mind, I read here on Money & Markets there are something in the order of magnitude $600T of unsustainable derivatives floating around in the worlds markets… Someone’s gonna pay big time soon…!
Ya know “Dr”, those unsustainable derivatives where not allowed under Glass Steagall… Surprisingly, the Democrats brought it in 1933 (after virtually the same thing brought 1929) and the Republicans removed it in 1999… You seem to have missed that we have already paid twice (big time) in 1929 and 2007..
But, hey, it is probably that corrupt “Kenyan”s” fault, aye?… Go figure.. :(
I repeat Mike, the more we blame Republicans or Democrats… The less we remember they’re both to blame…! Not sure why you can’t even imagine that being the case… But then…
I bet you even think there are actually two parties, the Democrats and Republicans. They exist in name only but have the exact same end game, and they are in perfect lockstep with the feral government and NOT we the people. The U.S. government is the enemy of the people.
So, I have studied history and leaving doesn’t solve the problem… Did the 20 or 30 percent who fought to separate the colonies from a tyrannical king leave America…?
Since there’s not a better place to go as a Republican President pointed out a few years ago, I’m waiting for the next revolution, which by my calculations will happen before I expire…
Doc,
I comes down to who supports the Ultra Wealthy and who supports the Average American….. Really is that simple…..We’ve ALWAYS done our best when Income Inequity was down….. That happened between 1932-1981, under Democratic Domination…. From 1981-2009 Income Inequity soared under the Republican Domination and the Middle Class got crushed…… No, they are NOT both the same….. You ever live as a poor kid Doc? Also gives one perspective…..
I totally agree, Dr. Don, about the essential goals of all the parties. Revolution might even come before I go, and I’m nearly 87. ‘hope it waits awhile though. Ha-Ha!!
wasn’t Clinton the president then I remember him saying we have to trust north korea so we gave them billions for humanitarian aid instead they used that money to build a nuclear bomb and since BILL CLINTON was a liberal democrat doesn’t that make it the democrats who removed it in 1999 ……………………..aye ????????……..
Did you even graduate from high school?
Fed raise rates? Not in my world! The stong Dollar equals DEFLATION, always! Global
GDP is weak. The Velocity of Money is extremely weak and still dropping. These conditions call for negative rates, no more positive ones!!
Exactly… Only the Feds mouth is moving… Not interest rates.
9/11 in American history terms is ancient history. Elementary school students learning about it weren’t even born when it happened. You know how much Americans care about or learn from history. There is one thing that is obvious: the terrorists changed America. Politicians involved us several military actions, and passed a slew of laws and regulations as a result of the attacks, all in the name of “protecting us”. Before 9/11, we hardly ever had episodes of domestic terrorism. Now, hardly a week seems to pass without some mass shooting or mass response to police activity. America has changed, as a result of 9/11, and not for the better.
America changed after Pearl Harbor also. And after Korea and Vietnam. We screwed up big time when we believed Cheney. Then we learned. That is why we have no boots in Syria nor Iran
Don’t try to equate 9/11 with Pearl Harbor. WWII was a matter of national survival. Korea let the communists know we would fight after a certain point, but MacArthur screwed up after China warned they would also fight. Vietnam was Johnson/McNamara’s screw-up, like Iraq was Bush/Chaney’s. Afghanistan had more reason, as the base of al Qaida, but was also screwed up by Obama. ISIS may be a real danger, with Saudi backing, and might be worth the cost of boots on the ground.
Chuck, no boots please… Let them kill each other…
We need to learn from Iraq and Afghanistan… Look at how many blacks are killing blacks in Chicago…
Some cultures and species are predisposed to harm or even kill their own kind.
Seems like the intelligent thing to do is let nature take it’s course…!
Dr. Don, Look at all the white on white wars throughout history. Or other divisions of humanity against themselves and each other. Competition is engrained in all species as a matter of self preservation. ‘Trouble is, humans learned to think up ways and means that could result in self annihilation. What South Side gang will first with a nuke.
The Republican Neocons, most of whom had NEVER stood duty are the sole reason we have the disasters in the Middle East that we have today….. If those tin soldier oilmen had listened to their Generals (Especially Powell: “You beak it, you own it”) we would not have over 4,000 of our bravest dead and close to 3 Trillion front end and 7 back end trillion wasted….. The CIA had things well managed with a 50/50 Iraq to Iran set up freebie, that worked just fine
You ever stood Infantry duty, Chuck? I have and it gives a guy real perspective as to what is possible and what is not….. Doc makes some good points below…. We had an old saying about doing things “stupid or smart”….. Ever since draft dodger Cheney and the Neocons we’ve done a lot of things really, really stupid……
Not inf., Mike. AF, Korea. Only got shot at once by a NK guerilla – no hits. And it didn’t start with Cheney – a long time before. I agree about listening to the generals. FDR was the last pres. who did, by the way. A shame Powell never ran. He was smart though, not wanting to deal with the political mob misrule in DC. CIA and Special Forces had things well in hand in Afghanistan until Bush/Cheney decided to take it away from the Afghanis, and move in the troops to force our brand of things on them.
aye ? WASNT IT PRESIDENT JOHNSON……. who started the Vietnam war yes it was and he was a democrat and yes president JOHNSON a liberal democrat killed 10 times more americans than in the operation Iraqi freedom AYE ?….
Agreed Chuck…… Thanks for your Service and Congratulations on “not stopping one”….. I started infantry, then went SF…. Long time ago, but the intelligence lessons never go away…. Few know that the CIA bankrupted the Russians and ended the Cold War without firing a shot…. Same thing with Iran/Iraq and Afghanistan….. “Smart way or the dumb way”… The SF “smart way” cost of stopping the Russians in Afghanistan was zip, especially when compared to the “stupid” disasters in Iraq…. Got plenty of metal “replacement” parts from those days…. You notice them more in your 60’s and 70’s…… Service time can be hazardous (as you probably already know)….. :( Personally, I think it was all about someone Neocon’s wet dream (nightmare) about seizing all that oil… Been a student of history both Military, Intelligence Community and Civilian…. To me, FDR was a God… What incredible insight and desire to look out for the average American, despite coming from wealth… We could also use a lot more Powell’s in government…. Guy’s that “have been there done that”, would really help… Neocons not invited… :(
Good post Mike… I’m impressed that you never once mentioned republicans or democrats… Thank you. And thank you for your service to our nation… You too Chuck…!
I’m looking forward to more conversations next week when the poop is supposed to hit the proverbial fan… Let’s try and refrain from the history of the DNC and RNC, which I’ll be happy when they are both history.
Have a happy Sunday…!
Donnie,
Both Great Presidents that Chuck mentioned had one thing in common. They were BOTH Liberal Progressives. What do you believe is going to happen this week? Incidentally, my long term Indicators have a SELL signal on the last trading day oh August… It has not had a money losing signal since I figured it out in 1985.
HEY MIKE YOU ALWAYS TALK OF THE PAST ………….OK tell me one good liberal president in the past 50 yrs that was so good………………. good luck
Kennedy, Clinton and Obama
kennedy was dead in 63 so he is out Clinton and Obama are habitual liars and so is hillery being a proven liar does not make them good presidential material case in point barack Obama……. and Clinton would have been impeached if it wasn’t for his pack of misfits Nancy lets sign it now and talk about it later Pelosi Harry obstructionist Reed and Barney mumbles Frank
kennedy was dead in 63 so he is out Clinton and Obama are habitual liars and so is hillery being a proven liar does not make them good presidential material case in point barack Obama……. and Clinton would have been impeached if it wasn’t for his pack of misfits Nancy lets sign it now and talk about it later Pelosi Harry obstructionist Reed and Barney mumbles Frank
Sorry I haven’t thanked you for your time in service, Mike. The way I think, just about every able bodied person needs to give some time for The Flag, if not for what our government has become, so it is nothing too out of the way. I do Congratulate and Respect you on living through whatever put a permanent bunch of metal in you somewhere. ‘Glad you did, so we could trade opinions here.
FDR wasn’t perfect, of course, but was the best president since Washington. He was a politician, but put people before the State. He carried some metal on the outside of his legs, by the way, from his polio.
As for those who favor Lincoln, he was certainly smart, but was essentially a lawyer politician. He largely gave the federal government primacy over the states and the people, and began the trends that are coming to a head today. That gives him a few more minuses in my opinion.
Thinking ahead from what I said about Lincoln, to Obama, I’ll give him credit, he is probably almost as smart as Lincoln. He is another lawyer politician, too. Unlike Lincoln, though, he not only didn’t win a war, but has essentially lost a couple. He also puts the State first, as THE source of all things for the people
Couldn’t agree more about service time (Military or otherwise) for EVERY able bodied Citizen both Men and Women… Nothing gives one a sense of appreciation for this great country like spending time in some of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th class countries of the world…
There was a saying in the Army: We take a lot of Young Boys and deliver back to the Civilian World a lot of Young Men… Something about being put into those incredibly difficult and dangerous situations that changes you for the better… I’d imagine you faced much the same in the AF.
As for Obama, I think he inherited two incredibly difficult situations in Iraq and the Free Falling Economy thanks to the departing, draft dodging Conservative administration …. When the Shiite government would not afford immunity to our troops, we either stayed there as an “Oppressor Force” or left…. Had I been “boots on the ground” I’d have kissed Obama’s feet for getting us out of that disastrous crap hole…
Saddam’s 2nd class Army was defeated, but the war over getting the Sunni, Shiite and Kurd to live together was never won…. The ONLY Officer to EVER get them to fight together was Lawrence in WW-1… Then the British set up today’s disaster by going backwards on their promise of homelands for the three tribes after thy drove the Turks and Germans out…. Until that happens the war will NEVER be won and over… Incidentally ISIS (ISIL) is supported by the Sunni’s…
Were it up to me, I’d support the Kurd’s and let the other two tribes kick the crap out of each other down to the last goat, much like Doc suggested…
I agree the Kurds seem to be the only people in that region able to have two brain cells to rub together. After we destroyed Hussein’s regime, they immediately began working to put the oil fields back in production – when they didn’t have to defend themselves against the puppet gov’t in Bagdad. Or against our Turkish allies, who are now bombing them again.
Nice to know that you are keeping up on the Intel on that site!…. :) That is why so many SF weereThe Kurd’s (unlike those other idiots) also rate their women higher than their goats! Those women, like the Israeli female shooters, are VERY good with a weapon, especially at 500 yards!.They have sent a lot of ILIS members to the promised land…..
Opps… Many SF in the Kurdish areas came home with good reports of their abilities and intelligence…
Martin Weiss, in his column this morning, talks about having just returned from Brazil, among others, where the Real has lost value, plunging in a year from about 45 cents of value to about 26 cents. He says people there, in the western hemisphere’s second largest economy, are in shock. He also mentions the downgrading of the country’s debt to junk status, which I described above, on Friday. He also visited China, and speaks of how the government has overreacted to what might have been a normal market correction there, making things much worse. Canada, Mexico, Russia, France and others are also in trouble, and this has to soon hit this country. Look out below.
If – I’m almost tempted to say when – the Fed raises interest rates on Wednesday, it may begin a cascade effect of declining bond prices throughout the markets as buyers demand more income from anything they purchase. Why would the Fed raise rates? They will merely be following the lead of world markets. The world has sneezed, and the U.S. is about to catch cold.