You know this. But you may not be fully aware of the urgency or the full implications:
At this very moment, the Islamic State is moving forward rapidly to expand its worldwide reach, with untold consequences for Americans, global trade, financial markets and investors everywhere.
The Islamic State has declared “provinces” in ten nations, including four that are among the top ten oil-reserve countries of the world — Saudi Arabia with 268 billion barrels of proven reserves, Iraq (140 billion barrels), Libya (48 billion), and Nigeria (37 billion).
It boasts over 40 affiliates in countries that encompass most of the world’s population outside China and most of the world’s wealth outside the United States.
It has mounted or inspired deadly terrorist attacks on every continent except Antarctica — in Algeria, Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey and more — many of which are home countries of high-net-worth investors.
Just since the game-changing Paris attacks, the Islamic State has threatened to attack New York, Washington, and Rome … has plotted the assassination of the Pope … has inspired the San Bernardino shootings … and has beheaded a Russian citizen on video, promising bloody revenge.
“Here today, on this blessed land,” declared the executioner in Russian, “the battle begins. We shall kill your children for every child you’ve killed here. And we will destroy your homes for each home you destroyed here.”
In contrast, the declarations of resolve from Russia and the West, no matter how forcefully intended, currently seem timid by comparison.
In hollow echoes of George Bush’s first post-9/11 speech, Russian President Putin has declared “we will search for them everywhere.”
French President François Hollande has vowed to be “merciless toward the barbarians.”
President Obama has upgraded his opinion of the Islamic State from “the JV team” to “a bunch of killers with good social media.”
And UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has routinely issued press releases that crank out condemnations and condolences with the precision of a cookie cutter.
What do Obama and Putin have in common?
Right now, not much — except perhaps for the fact that both appear together in a doctored-up photo posted by the Islamic State in its Russian-language online magazine, “Istok.” It shows both presidents in orange execution jumpsuits, behind a blood-drenched executioner’s knife.
I bring this image to your attention because, metaphorically, it leads to the three main points I make here today:
- More terror. Until Russia and the West recognize that both are victims of the same evil forces — and respond to the threat with a single unified front — those forces will continue to foment and exploit the East-West divide, spilling more blood and spreading more fear.
- Capital flight. Until the Islamic State is stopped in its tracks, with a reasonable expectation of its ultimate demise, flight capital will continue to move from vulnerable regions of the globe to safe-haven countries like the U.S. or Japan. And …
- New threats to natural resources. If the Islamic State is able to continue on this path, it could soon begin to threaten the supply of scarce resources, especially oil.
Unfortunately, instead of bringing the global powers together to confront a common enemy, global terrorism has stoked and provoked more global conflict — between the U.S. and its regional allies, between Russia and NATO countries, between East and West, and among regional powers. Consider, for example …
The 3-Way Mess Among the U.S.,
Turkey and Kurdish Minorities
Turkey is a member of NATO and America’s number one regional ally, now lending direct support to U.S. efforts against the Islamic State on multiple levels — bases for U.S. fighter jets, joint air operations and more.
Kurdish minorities, with no nation of their own, include a population of roughly 40 million peoples of Persian ancestry living primarily in Eastern Turkey, Northern Syria, Northern Iraq and Iran.
Inside Syria and Iraq, with central governments in disarray, the Kurds currently have the only troops capable of mounting offensives against the Islamic State. They are the #1 on-the-ground ally of the American-led coalition.
The big dilemma: Although both Turkey and the Kurdish militants are our two staunchest allies in the war against the Islamic State, they are also each other’s single worst enemies: Since 1984, when the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) began a major insurgency against the Turkish government, the two have been waging a long, on-again-off-again civil war.
Result: In Syria and Iraq, we need the Kurdish militants badly and are starting to support them massively. But in Turkey, we directly support the same government that’s out to destroy them.
When the Dow Hits 31,000 … We are on the cusp of the most profitable bull market of our lifetime. Stocks will be driven higher by powerful global undercurrents that Wall Street will either ignore or fail to understand. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. Savvy investors who make the right moves will become very rich! Click here for my free report and to find out how it could make you rich beyond your dreams. -Larry |
Internal Sponsorship |
Given the uncommon urgency to contain and destroy the Islamic State, you’d think Turkey and the Kurdish militants would find common ground to fight against them.
And in 2013, before the surge of the Islamic State, they were starting to do just that: They declared a ceasefire and began negotiating a so-called “solution process.” For the first time in 30 years, Turkey’s civil war seemed finally close to ending.
But then, in mid-July of last year, due to the rapid expansion of the Islamic State in Syria, the peace process between Turks and Kurds abruptly fell apart.
As you may recall, that’s when the Islamic State was on the verge of capturing or murdering tens of thousands of men, women and children of the Yazidi minority in Syria. That was bad.
Trouble is, that’s also when the Kurdish PKK began sending its fighters into Syria to help save them. But the Turkish government, alarmed by any kind of Kurdish mobilization, tried to block them at the border. Clashes erupted. Blood was shed. And the ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish militants collapsed. That was also bad.
In response, Kurds in Turkey staged massive street protests, demanding that the Turkish government help them — or at least allow them — to go into battle against the Islamic State. But instead of granting them their wish, the government sent out the Turkish Air Force to bomb their positions in Eastern Turkey. That was even worse.
The U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State suffered a serious setback. And the Islamic State rejoiced.
The 3-Way Disaster Among Russia,
The Turkmens of Syria, and Turkey
Russia, as you well know, has jumped into the Syrian civil war with the primary goal of propping up Syrian President Assad and bombing all of his enemies, regardless of whether friend or foe of the U.S.
Turkmens of Syria are descendants and kin of Turkish peoples who have lived in Northern Syria since the 11th Century. Their militia — the Syrian Turkmen Brigades — is one of the moderate groups also helping in the fight against the Islamic State.
Turkey considers them to be virtually a part of their own domestic population. Plus, at the same time, until this month, Turkey had been slowly but surely building a strong economic alliance with Russia. So, in an ideal world, there was hope of some kind of three-way alliance among the three.
The dilemma: The Syrian Turkmen Brigades have also been fighting to topple Syrian President Assad, Russia’s staunch ally. They also happen to live in the same exact region of Syria where Russia has established a permanent base. And in recent weeks, the Russia Air Force has been bombing their positions relentlessly. Bad.
That’s one of the real reasons Turkish president Recep ErdoÄŸan was so angry at Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s also probably why he didn’t hesitate to shoot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber aircraft near the Syria-Turkey border on November 24. Also bad.
And now, that incident is why Turkish-Russian trade deals and joint ventures, carefully negotiated over many years, have suddenly collapsed. Tragic.
Not only that. But since Turkey is a NATO ally, Russia is also blaming the United States, dashing recent hopes of a Russian-American alliance against the Islamic State. A disaster of global consequences.
Again, the fight against the Islamic State has suffered a serious setback. And again, the Islamic State has rejoiced.
Nearly Everyone Pointing
Guns at Nearly Everyone Else
From the get-go, each side in the Iraqi and Syrian civil wars — Russia, the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and many others — have had a different agenda and saw different enemies on the battlefield.
And from the very beginning, whether directly or indirectly, each side has been pointing guns at the other.
What’s worse, some of the world’s largest economic and military powers are now lining up on opposite sides of the millennial conflict I’ve been warning you about for many years — Sunnis vs. Shiites.
- Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq and their allies are jumping in on the Shiite side, while …
- United States, France, the UK, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and most other Muslim nations are piling in on the Sunni side.
The result is a global war that, tragically, revolves around a central axis of irreconcilable religious beliefs, hatred, tooth-for-tooth revenge killing and seemingly limitless civilian bloodshed.
Again, the Islamic State is the beneficiary. Again, they’re celebrating. Worse, they’re finding new ways to deliberately inflame the conflict to their strategic advantage.
They Know What They’re Doing
The Islamic State leaders know they’re playing a role in fomenting global conflict that goes far beyond the Middle East.
They know global conflicts and regional civil wars generate their best hunting grounds for recruitment and power grabs.
And they also know that, in almost every corner of the planet, their attacks give each country’s political leaders a handy excuse to more severely repress their own people … more directly invade the privacy of their citizens … and more deeply draw lines in the sand between themselves and traditional foes.
We see this happening not only in regions directly impacted by the conflict, not only in countries lacking a deep democratic tradition, but, to a lesser degree, even in Western countries that, until recently, were seen as staunch defenders of personal and religious freedoms. The Islamic state wants to see that happen as well.
Urgent FREE Online Summit (Your Complimentary Invitation) A new way of attacking deadly SuperBugs is emerging thanks to a shocking medical breakthrough that Harvard doctors report “could hold the keys to improving life.” It’s called the Microbiome Revolution, and it’s also creating one of the biggest investing opportunities we may see in our lifetime. That’s why The Oxford Club has assembled a team of investing and health experts to present our FREE online summit, SuperBugs, SuperCures, SuperProfits: How to Make a Fortune From the $230 Billion Microbiome Revolution. We’ll give you everything you need to know so YOU can profit from the megatrend that’s right around the corner… and stay healthier too. Claim your spot (for FREE) by clicking right here. |
External Sponsorship |
The Islamic State also rejoices when international joint ventures, like the Russo-Turkish pacts, are cast aside.
They celebrate when trade relations — such as between Russia and Western Europe — are summarily gutted.
And what makes them especially happy is when moderates in both the West and the East — including peace-loving Muslims who could be among the West’s staunchest allies in the war on terror — are marginalized, ostracized, or worse.
And, alas, this seems to be a goal they’re starting to achieve as well.
In sum …
As I explained here as recently as two weeks ago, and have stressed again today, the Islamic State is now one of the most powerful drivers behind the Global Money Tsunami — flight capital rushing to the world’s remaining safe havens. (See ““Four Shocking Truths about ISIS.”)
Second, this spreading war could soon begin to impact major oil-reserve nations at a time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC are still eyeing supply cutbacks (despite their failure to agree on Friday).
And third, although the U.S. coalition has won some battles, it’s obviously losing the war.
Here, courtesy of the New York Times, is a map showing the ten countries which the Islamic State has declared “provinces” of its caliphate:
In some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Algeria, the so-called “province” is more symbolic than real. But in others — Iraq, Syria, Libya, Nigeria, and Afghanistan — the Islamic State and its affiliates control territory and rule populations — often in large or strategic areas of the country.
Moreover, in major oil countries like Saudi Arabia or Algeria, never underestimate their ability to foment pre-existing hatreds — not only between Sunnis and Shiites, but also between rich and poor, or between autocratic rulers and disenfranchised citizens.
Never underestimate their role in instigating civil war, creating still more opportunities for them to conquer territory and resources. This is what has happened in Iraq and Syria. It’s also what could happen in Pakistan, even Saudi Arabia.
Plus, there’s the New York Times graphic of the major attacks directed or inspired by the Islamic State …
Notice how they’ve ballooned just in the past 12 months.
Notice how, last year, they were almost exclusively home-grown, lone-wolf attacks … but this year, are usually controlled directly by the Islamic State.
And look how last year, they were limited to just a few attacks in a few countries … but now have gone global and become far more frequent.
I don’t have to tell you this is an ugly trend. I don’t have to tell you it’s showing every sign of escalating — possibly dramatically.
And yet, still, the very countries that must urgently align themselves against this trend remain splintered, still pointing — even firing — weapons at each other.
Clearly, fighting multiple enemies on multiple fronts doesn’t work. Russia and America must choose just one enemy at a time; and right now that must be the Islamic State. Other enemies can wait their turn.
It’s also self-evident that bombing doesn’t work. It may give chest-pounding national leaders something to do and rant about. But it rarely stops this enemy; and it always helps create more enemies they can recruit.
From day one, nearly every tactic the U.S., Russia and their allies have pursued has merely played into their hands.
Let’s pray our leaders come to their senses and do so quickly.
But don’t hold your breath. Instead, continue to build your wealth by following the global flow of money. And don’t be surprised if you see major threats to oil and other natural resources in the not-too-distant future.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
P.S. Are you pondering what you should be doing now to preserve your wealth in a world gone mad?
A new report by Weiss Research Senior Analyst LARRY EDELSON has the answers you’re looking for.
Click this link to read your free copy now.
{ 15 comments }
Thank you Dr.Weiss for this cogent and accurate analysis. I hope the “worlds leaders” begin to understand the gravity of their stances and adjust to reality soon….we are all at risk.again, thanks.
“World’s leaders begin to understand”??? Haha. Non likely. Ever notice how the Royal Family seems not too concerned. The dilemna that people cannot figure out is this. They choose to blame the U.S. or Islam. In reality, they work together. Al you have to do is watch the reaction of the Royal Family, then listen to the words of Adjem Chaudary. What is their unifying philosophy? That’s where the answer lies. Otherwise you will be left arguing each other. Meanwhile, you’re partially right. And the argument will never end. Divide and conquer. It’s working like a charm.
A little bit of history. In the US in the sixties and seventies, when we sent up rockets, then 12 hijackings followed of airliners. One may find that after an American terrorist massacre there will be 12 others copy cat terrorist like acts. This may account for the large number of attacks considered terrorist but are copycat acts which make the paper and seem to encourage further bad behavior. The papers have to reserve judgement on these acts to rule out mental disorder.
Thank you for asking.
I sure am pleased to not be paying you for your advise. As I read your take on ISIS it would appear you get all your information of Fox and CNN. The Americans have bombed and damaged, killed and destroyed the ability to sustain life in numerous countries.
The survivors are mad as hell, and seeking revenge.
Read James Dale Davidson’s Nov. 22 ,2015 article on Davidson Unplugged, you may learn something.
ISIS wont be defeated until we align with Russia and other nations (those with the political will to do so) to totally wipe the terrorists off the map. Only their annihilation contain them– they do not understand anything other than terror and death. They (and all of the Islamic radicals) say “Death to America;” I say “Death to ISIS.” Totally wipe them out.
I always read Dr. Weiss’ Monday missives with great interest. He has an unusual understanding of world economic and political affairs in general, and especially those of the Middle East. I just wish world leaders would pay heed to what he says, but “leaders” everywhere seem more concerned with their personal political advantages and profits than with those of those of the people they “lead”. People everywhere need a way to get rid of these “leaders”. How, I have no idea, but it needs doing if humanity is to survive.
Putin has a point. Who created ISIS?
Nice analysis Dr Weiss…But many Sources have confirm that Turkey is buying oil from ISIS and the US has been backing ISIS fighters in Syria, So Russia is the only Country that has there S… together when it comes to battling ISIS. A 10% minority of Turks outwardly support ISIS as well.
The US Gov is just to corrupt with to many hidden agendas to get it together against ISIS. That is why they are flourishing. It’s just Russia alone against ISIS.
This is little better than the mainstream media’s pablum….No mention that Turkey shot down the Russian plane using information about time and place provided by the US. Or that Russia’s bombing in the north is largely directed at cutting the jihadists’ supply lines from Turkey. Or Turkey’s funding of IS through purchase of its stolen oil. Oh, no…Turkey is our NATO ally, so you wouldn’t want to mention the numerous evidence that they are providing the primary logistical support to the jihadists in Syria.
Russia has been offering to have the US join its (clearly more effective) coalition since the end of September, but the US refuses on the grounds that “Assad must go.” What a great idea! Fight with Russia in order to get rid of a secular leader who has for years encouraged a multi-cultural, multi-sectarian state in Syria so that the wahhabi/takfiri/jihadists can preside over a disintegrated Syria.
At the invitation of the sovereign state of Syria, Russia is bombing jihadists in coordination with the Syrian army, supported by Hezbollah and Iranian forces. So how can you say that “the Kurds currently have the only troops capable of mounting offensives against the IS”?
The US and its ‘allies’ are in Syria illegally: no UN resolution, no invitation from Syria, no act of the US’ congress. The US actions seem aimed at producing chaos in Syria as their actions did in Libya. Notice that when Russia makes claims about what is happening, they back it up with video footage. The US makes claims and backs it with no evidence, just media propaganda.
By ignoring evidence so selectively, Dr Weiss, you devalue your writings to the same level as that propaganda.
Where does Israel fit into this picture?
Your ISIS related/inspired graph indicates a reduction over time in total attacks on western nations with good intelligence agencies….which indicates there improving their methods of protecting their own countries. Further supported by increasing attacks on less able agencies and their countries. This may/or probably will create fertile grounds for more ISIS attacks and support in less able countries..so expanding globally. …..but still investment inflow to the US and Japan…is dependent on this perceived western safety…regardless of the graphs dynamic changing…gold and other real and physically easily moveable assets..seem to be a higher probability safety bet than the dow30 in the event of a financial or bio or terror or nuclear black swan event causing monthly or yearly infrastructure problems in the US…this issue is widely considered to be possible by many financial news letters…
As I recall the original ISIL leaders were thought to be many of the top people in Saddam’s government in Iraq. Given the smoldering religious tensions in the Muslim world all this “regime change” the US ha been involved in and the return of the client wars of the Cold War have simply played into the hands of radical and/or power hungry Muslim leaders. This kind of thing will be going on even if ISIL disappeared tomorrow. Even Mohammed couldn’t stop and may have lead to his demise, he died from what appears to be food poisoning, but nobody else got even a tummy ache. The current borders were drawn by the British and French in the 1920s with the League of Nations rubberstamp. The Kurds and Turkmen in Syria were simply ignored. Footnote to history many of the Arab leaders asked President Wilson to step in and he declined.
Thank you for the information. A lot of folks have their head buried in the sand and their common refrain is to blame the United States first for all of the world’s ills…especially the murderous nature of the many Islamic terrorists. Our leftist college professors have done their work well. Obama should not excluded from that list (reference his many international “apology tours” that we never requested).
The West has been fighting Muslim terrorism and mass murder since the 8th Century. They started it with their first bloody, horrible invasion of Europe during those decades. This time, the West will finish it. And it will not be pretty. And it will last a long, long time. Unfortunately, as Larry as somewhat prognosticated…..Europe will be devastated by the savage barbarians.
A fundamental problem is that national boundaries don’t outline a cohesive group of people. Historical reasons for this exist, but how about a crazy proposal going forward instead –
Redefine how regions are governed every decade. I like voting, but there are other methods.
Live in the Southern California region and want to be governed by Mexico? Mexico chooses to admit Southern California? Sure, in 2020 you can experience Mexican rule. Taxes and services are in Mexico’s hands.
It’ll never happen as I describe. Those in power decide what they’ll take and how others will be grouped. Just like how some national boundaries were drawn after each WW.
But wouldn’t it be nice if people realized their poor circumstances were from their own choices?
Thank you for your insightful summary of the current dilemma.