| MARKET ROUNDUP | |
| Dow | -116.61 to 17,055.77 |
| S&P 500 | -11.52 to 1,982.77 |
| Nasdaq | -19.00 to 4,508.69 |
| 10-YR Yield | -0.036 to 2.535% |
| Gold | +$5.10 to $1,226.00 |
| Crude Oil | +$0.31 to $90.42 |
War is on in the Middle East!
I say that because the battle against ISIS – and the simmering conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors – just expanded to Syria!
Overnight …
==> The U.S. dropped bombs, flew drones, and fired off waves of cruise missiles at targets throughout Syria. A total of 14 airstrikes struck training and storage facilities, vehicles, and other targets. Some 47 cruise missiles from ships in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf rained fire down on other locations.
==> ISIS wasn’t the only group the U.S. attacked, either. It also struck the Khorasan Group, an al-Qaeda affiliated group the U.S. accuses of planning attacks against the U.S. or U.S. interests overseas. ISIS vowed quickly that the “attacks will be answered.”
==> The attacks included unspecified contributions from several Arab nations, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. That means even more countries are getting dragged into the regional conflict.
==> Even Israel jumped into the fray — shooting a Syrian air force jet out of the sky over the contested Golan Heights region. That’s the first time we’ve seen that happen since.
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| U.S. bombs battered sights inside of Syria, intensifying the fight against ISIS. |
Throughout the spreading conflict, the prices of crude oil and gold have remained remarkably tame. The key reason? Weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, which has kept a lid on commodities overall.
But that started to change overnight. Both oil and gold caught a bid as explosions echoed throughout the deserts and towns of Syria and Iraq. Could this mark the return of the “geopolitical bid” that has been missing so far? Absolutely!
I would keep a close eye on oil and copper in particular to see whether the bounce can gather steam. If so, it might be time to get more aggressive with beaten-down energy plays.
At the same time, concern over the strength of the global economy outside of the U.S. is putting pressure on the broad averages. Smaller capitalization stocks have been lagging, M&A news like we got yesterday has been ignored, and the S&P 500 continues to struggle with the 2,000 level.
| “Could this mark the return of the ‘geopolitical bid’ that has been missing so far?” |
Me? I continue to focus on the select, domestically oriented, sector bull markets that have done so well for me over the past couple of years. And I’ve been avoiding European stocks and the European currency, helping my readers dodge the worst of the recent carnage.
We haven’t broken any significant levels of technical support yet. So I’m going to stick to that game plan until I see signs that we need to do something more radical.
Still, I want to know what YOU think. Is the recent weakness a sign of something worse to come for the broad averages? Are you battening down the hatches in your personal portfolio? Or is it time to get back into some of the energy and oil stocks that have been beaten down – as well as bottom fish in other sectors?
Hop on down to the comment section below to share your thoughts with your fellow investor.
| Our Readers Speak |
It seems like my column on eating healthier — and profiting from the trend of shoppers shifting toward organic and natural food producers and retailers – touched a nerve. And I really appreciate your valuable feedback.
Reader Barb said: “I shop at Fresh Market and Whole Foods in Wellington, Florida for ALL my fresh produce, meat plus specialty items. I use Publix for all the rest. Publix cannot match FM and WF when it comes to both freshness and organic choices.”
Reader Diana added: “Used to have a big garden but now I buy organic fruits and vegetables and hormone-free meat. I make everything from scratch. I can’t afford to buy organic for everything so pick & choose.
“Our Safeway & Fry’s chain in AZ is adding more organic every day. Also love the farmer’s market and several smaller organic stores we have. Don’t count out your large chains. I talk with the meat & general managers almost every time I shop, and they order what I want.”
Finally, Reader Caine said: “The big food producers (‘Big Food’) are continually attempting to co-opt the organic and wholesome brand segment through acquisitions, but these acquisitions often lead to deterioration of the organic quality of the product.
“Worse still, is that many such organic brands are now owned by Big Food, which pushes huge amounts of money toward anti-organic initiatives. In California alone, Big Food spent over $40 million to block GMO labeling which is THE organic issue of our time, and narrowly defeated a similar initiative in Washington. So for me, I avoid shopping at any chain that is a member of the Grocery Manufacturer’s Alliance, and I even avoid the organic brands that have been purchased by Big Food because their profits drive anti-organic initiatives.”
Clearly, many of you are trying to improve your health and buy smarter when it comes to food. That can only be good for society as a whole.
And Caine, it’ll be interesting to see how the likes of General Mills and Campbell handle their organic brands. I get the feeling they will bury their corporate logos in the fine print on the bottom of the packaging, or maybe not even slap it on there at all! The goal will be to try and preserve the organic “cred” of the products – and therefore make them more marketable even post-merger.
But will the quality of those products hold up? Or will they cut corners and costs to try to keep shareholders happy? Only time will tell on that one!
Again, this is a great discussion and if you’d like to add to it, definitely swing on down to the Money and Markets comment section below. I’ll do everything I can to answer your questions!
| Other Developments of the Day |
- Lots of merger money may be flowing from Europe to U.S. shores. But their economy certainly isn’t doing us any favors! Both manufacturing and service sector activity slowed in September, according to new readings from Markit Economics. Confidence is also declining, putting renewed pressure on the European Central Bank to ramp up its printing presses even more.
- The United Nations Climate Summit is underway in New York, as is the Clinton Global Initiative. The events include lots of speeches on everything from climate change to the Middle East, as well as announcements of various anti-pollution and pro-democracy programs.
- The Treasury Department took aim at the wave of tax “inversion” mergers we’ve seen in 2014. It is prohibiting so-called “hopscotch” loans used to dodge U.S. taxes, as well as “spin versions” and “skinnying down” – two other techniques used to get around existing rules that affect cross-border acquisitions.
- As a biker, I was discussing this tragic accident with my neighbors last night. I do my best to ride smart – keeping my eyes out for pedestrians, staying in bike lanes when they exist, and following the rules when I ride in street traffic. But there are plenty of other riders (and drivers!) who don’t pay attention or just flout the rules. For the sake of us all, I hope everyone learns to share the road better.
Reminder: You can let me know what you think by putting your comments below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
{ 28 comments }
I will not be surprised if Gold, Oil and such will go up, but I did not understand why GD,
Boeing, Harris and other military producing companies went down today, while we know that during military conflicts demand for their production and so profit should go up.
Greetings Mike, I think you are right about turmoil. I think this is the beginning of something very unstable in geo-politics which will have repercussions on financial markets, oil markets and gold markets. The fake Islamic State (that is, defaming the peaceful religion of Islam) are a US CIA creation to justify the removal of Bashar Al-Assad and de-stabilisation of Iran and the entire Middle-East, which could lead to a threat on Russian Naval Base in Tartus which could spin other turmoil. This is the time to batten down the hatches and hunker down for the long road to WW III. Larry Edelson may be right that the war cycles will rachet up in 2014. You can listen to StormCloudsGathering channel on YouTube or Dr. Michel Chossudovsky of http://www.GlobalResearch.ca on “The Geo-Politics of WW III”. May God Almighty protect ordinary people who are being led by maniacal leaders who have burdened the major economies of the West with debt, and have no other options than taking us to war. You can also listen to Gerald Celente who says, “When all else fails the leaders will take us to war”.
That last statement is 100% correct. There hasn’t been a religion yet whose politico-religious leaders haven’t used the invented teachings of some invented God/Allah/Yahweh, etc. to justify whatever THEY wanted to do. Religions have essentially nothing to do with spirituality. Get rid of them.
So the world’s number one terrorist nation (USA) has launched yet another illegal assault on a sovereign nation to bolster its war economy to enrich a handful of oligarchs. Funny how the media never mentions that ISIS was born and bred by the CIA to do its bidding in Syria originally. All I can say is that Obama’s former pastor (the one he threw under the bus to get elected) was right on when he said something akin to GOD D@MN the USA.
cette gère c est pas mon affaire .est américa rentrés dans un trous in connais .est changés toute la géographies est la géopolitique des golfe .est nous en train de les révolutions armés de isis dans toute le golfe est les jours venante exactement la Jordanie va attaqué de moslime state .est l extension de cette gère va rassemblé toute le golfes .puisque le tactique stratégique de cette gère travailles le service politic des moslime state .pour quoi y a une relations des sentiment religieuse dans la zone .qui va profitais contre la dictatoriale.
est vidiment le oïl va pressé dans son marché .est dans bourse.est c est ce la je veux pas l europes est américa rentrés dans cette gère est aussi les règlement des compte va explosé dans cette gère qui va formés une gère mondiale qui va changés de les pièges a l indirecte .merci
Wow….I have not checked but there must be a full moon tonight. Saeed and Holygeezer have taken Iran’s mantra to heart (that the USA is the Great Satan and that ISIS is nothing but a CIA front). Strange that the CIA would need to create such a horrific Islamic army just to kill Americans, Brits, Yazidis, Kurds and others that, well….just don’t toe the ISIS Islamic line. Whatever that might be (today). Logic says that the USA and the CIA could just nuke ’em of their own accord if they really wanted to kill a lot of people. But I guess those guys never did listen much to Mr. Spock. Anyhow, looks like the seasonal (fall) change is changing the market direction….to a downer. And with Islamic and Ebola killing rampages running wild….social mood seems to be slipping into the nader-sphere. Can you say good-bye 5 year Bear Market Rally? I knew you could.
And dear old Fred has swallowed the USA propaganda and lies hook, line and sinker.
It is made up.
They have no Navy, Air Force or Landing craft.
No subs, No nothing. No plumbing either.
And you, who have never been in a War and have no idea what is going have become a pundit.
You are nice guy Mike, but keep your day job. Remember, I knew you when you were a clerk. But your secret is safe with me.
Thank goodness the public is deaf dumb and blind.
Why is Treasury tightening regulations on business instead of telling the lying politicians in Congress and the Administration they need to stop spending every buck they can get their hands on to buy votes?
It is time to get rid of the IRS Mike, so instead of all the tax dodges lets push for the FairTax. I know some of us will pay a little more at first but the benefits will be more than worth it.
Fair Tax is something of an oxymoron. For one thing, it would be anything but fair unless it exempts food, water, decent shelter, enough fuel to cook and keep warm, and enough clothing to keep covered and warm when needed. Otherwise, it would chiefly be a tax on the less well off. But, no tax is really “fair”.
I have prepared a fair and simple personal income tax, so don’t be despondent. Here it is, a one page #1040: ALL income from ALL sources will be taxed at a 20% rate, with only one standard deduction of $20,000 allowed to everyone.. This government revenue, plus the Corporate tax (below) will be jiggered to match the National Budget, which cannot be exceeded. Personal Income above a million dollars will be taxed an additional 20% Patriot Tax, dedicated only for use on national infrastructure (forests, parks, roads, bridges, dams, water supplies, mass transportation, etc). When no essential national infrastructure programs can be identified, the Patriot Tax is temporarily discontinued. In the event of war, the $20,000 personal deduction is halved to $10,000.
Corporations doing business with only U.S. labor, and materials on U.S. soil will have flat 10% tax rate, applied on gross profit (sales minus material cost, hourly labor, and R&D. Additional tax rate for any company selling here using other than U.S. labor, materials, and U.S. production facilities. No tax on goods produced for export. Fair and simple? You bet! And government welfare would be abolished.
The Fair Tax will nothing to stop the insane money-go-round, nor will it do anything to help put the federal government back in it’s constitutional box.
Read your Constitution. The founders forbade any direct tax upon the people EXCEPT one that is apportioned among the States. In other words, the feds can tax the States, not the people directly.
The only solution to the mess we are in is to repeal the 16th and 17th Amendments. Flat and Fair tax schemes do nothing but shuffle the deck.
One things for sure GMO foods are pure poison , and one of the leading causes of the cancer epidemic that has exploded . GMO foods kill all the beneficial bacteria in your body & guess what sends the Killer White TCells to battle invaders – yep your guts
Insist on true and honest labeling – why are the food corps spending millions to get around honest labeling ? One things a known fact in the Cafeteria at Monsanto , they don’t eat the GMO poison and neither should you . All of Europe and Russia – China have said no to GMO crops , but of course here in the USA – Monsanto owns the FDA and everyone else.
Virtually EVERYTHING we eat, these days is GMO. The original almonds, for example, were pure poison to eat, a source of cyanide, but careful breeding, over centuries, turned them into a wholesome food. The thing is, we humans also may have evolved to accept them to some degree. Nowadays, foods come out of the gene splicing labs in only a few months, and it may be questionable whether they are really properly adapted to our systems. But even organic foods are GMO to some degree these days. We can only live with it, if we want to eat.
Agricultureal and demographic scientists have calculated that if the entire world went to “sustainable” organic and GMO/hormone free food production, the increased requirements for land and water resources and the reduction in production due to insect and disease loss would put another half billion people in the world at risk of starvation. Already, nearly a million people per year in Asia are at risk of blindness because of the mindless opposition to GMO rice containing the active form of vitamin A.
I enjoyed Martin’s recent story how he learned analysis from his father. He published a listing of how the Weiss Ratings was number one of the Research Firms graded for performance over the last year. However, when you blow up the small chart, it seems to show that Weiss Ratings was actually way down in 16th place (out of 23 rated) over the last 4 years, trailing the S&P 500 index by 3.51% over that period. Am I misreading this chart you presented?
THE WORLD SEEMS TO BE WANTING TO BE AT WAR OVER RELIGION AND OIL.
SURELY THE PRICES CANNOT CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SUPPLIES SO IFFY AND WITH RUSSIA LIKELY TO CURTAIL GAS EXPORTS.
IT APPEARS TO ME SOME OF THE OIL AND PIPELINE STOCK YIELDS ARE
SUCH THAT IT IS UNLIKELY ONE WOULD LOSE MUCH. I AM GOING TO BUY SLOWLY BASED ON DIVIDEND YIELD AND POSSIBLE APPRECIATION.
Listening to the market then, says we are heading into a deflationary shock. How deep or long is anyone’s guess, but falling gold and oil in this environment is a sign.
So far, supplies are not threatened. Watch the choke points.
The attacks in Syria will not move gold much. Investors know that Assad is quite content to have us impede his enemies, with or without his permission. The fireworks start when we engage Assad’s assets, which will invite Russia to the party. It is my opinion that U.S. policy to oust Assad is bone headed.
Organics is a farce! Nutritional scientists have consistently noted that organic products have no more nutritional value–and sometimes less–than products produced by conventional means. By increasing production, GMOs help starving people survive without the use of pesticides, which they can’t afford anyway. As for me, I’m not going to throw my money away on “organic” just to be in the social main stream, or deprive people of healthy food just because it’s productive capacity has been improved by scientific engineering.
Louie…oh but the chemicals used on conventional products have been proven to cause harm and so has the feed fed to farm raised fish….keep drinking the toxic cool aid.
Eventually, population growth will demand gmo foods just to feed humanity especially in China, India and many other countries. Drought and climate change will exacerbate the need for increased production.
We have been in a sideways pattern for some time and now see a downward trend in precious metals. With institutional investors pulling away from the stock market certainly gives Caution a capital C. The last two stock market crashes were the outcome of a catalyst; 2001 = 9-11, 2008 = subprime housing crises.
I don’t see any significant change unless we experience another catalyst that causes a cascading effect in the markets.
Jumping in an out of the market at this time is lunacy. It is perhaps best to sit it out for awhile until the picture comes more in focus. Hp
Not everyone believes in the “Politically Correct ” theory of “Man-Made Global Warming”. Some scientists even think we are entering a GLOBAL COOLING Cycle!
Some German scientists found that two naturally occurring cycles will combine to lower global temperatures during the 21st century, eventually dropping to levels corresponding with the “little ice age†of 1870. “Due to the de Vries cycle, the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the ‘little ice age’ of 1870,†write German scientists Horst-Joachim Luedecke and Carl-Otto Weiss of the European Institute for Climate and Energy.”.
Others like Lord Christopher Monckton in Special to Climate Depot Global Temperature Update says “No global warming for 17 years 11 months … … or 19 years, according to a key statistical paper By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The Great Pause has now persisted for 17 years 11 months. Indeed, to three decimal places on a per-decade basis, there has been no global warming for 18 full years. Professor Ross McKitrick, however, has upped the ante with a new statistical paper to say there has been no global warming for 19 years. Whichever value one adopts, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that we face a “climate crisis†caused by our past and present sins of emission.
Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months. This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration.”
Well put
I try to have an open mind on all this, but when they altered the name of the cause from global warming to climate change they lost me. The climate conditions do change every day, but street marches and ranting and raving will not alter the direction of their cause. What any reasonable society needs going forward is a balanced and supportable debate on verifyable facts, but having a divided scientific community just creates confusion at great cost to all of us. Where are the uncontestable facts for their cause?
Message for the biker, and all bicyclists also. High performance bikes are very bad at making quick stops from any speed. Lock the front wheel and you will most likely flip over the handle bar. For bicyclists there is an ugly solution. Mount a front fork horizontally on the back wheel axle and add weights to the steering stub until you have found the minimum weight needed to keep you from flipping. This works by lowering the center of gravity of the whole system, and placing it at the extreme rear.
I have seen a report on the correlation of the earth’s temperature and the size of the Ozone hole above the poles. Unlike the models of CO^2, the actual temperatures correspond very well to the size of the Ozone hole. This despite the continual and constant rate of CO^2 increase.
Of course the CO^2 theory makes no provision for the radiation from space.