Some people like to spend their money on things. Nice cars. Designer clothes. Expensive jewelry.
Market Roundup
Me? I love to travel. I would much rather create amazing memories, explore new cities and countries, eat adventurous food and try new experiences than accumulate excessive material possessions. As a matter of fact, I actually find it challenging and enjoyable to figure out a new city’s public transportation system — and do my best to take subways, trams and trains rather than taxis around town and to and from the airport.
I got to thinking about this in the past couple of days after the French terrorist attacks. As you may recall, I just gave a presentation to our German Safe Money Report readers in Hamburg. I spent some time sightseeing there, and in Amsterdam, before heading home. I last made it to Paris in early 2010 on a weekend trip via the Eurostar high-speed train from London.
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| The immediate reaction to the terror attacks could bring a decline in travel and tourism. |
While we haven’t seen any significant attacks in two out of four of those cities, Germany is at the forefront of the European migrant crisis debate. It has also been an active participant in anti-terror investigations. Raids were reportedly conducted in the country today in conjunction with the French attacks. The high-speed train attacked by a gunman this summer was also traveling from Amsterdam to Paris, though fortunately, U.S. off-duty servicemen overpowered him. Then today, a soccer match between Germany and the Netherlands was scrubbed in Hannover due to a “concrete” security threat.
Bur frankly, I didn’t think twice about making the recent trip or my other one a half-decade ago. I wouldn’t even if I was traveling now in the wake of the Paris strike. And once we get through a wave of knee-jerk, short-term cancellations, I don’t think ISIS will succeed in scaring people away from traveling — in Europe or elsewhere — either.
Just look at what happened after 9/11. The terrible attacks here on our own soil led to a few weeks of empty flights, hotels and cruise cabins. But Americans got back to living their lives before long, and refused to be cowed into hunkering down in their homes.
Sure, you’ll see longer lines at security if you fly to Europe now. The Continent’s train stations will feature beefed-up security as well, with spot checks and other measures. I would expect to see heavily armed soldiers and police at key tourist sites, too.
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| World travel: exploring new cities and cultures |
But Parisian officials have already reopened the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre, likely as a symbolic gesture to signal to the world that the city will power through this. That kind of resilience in the face of terrorism should be expected.
The bigger issue is really the underlying, fundamental weakness of the global and European economies. That’s what will determine how many tourists flock to the Continent in the months ahead.
Just as I didn’t recommend selling travel stocks as soon as the Paris news struck, I wouldn’t recommend buying them now until we get more clarity on the outlook there. But I also wouldn’t recommend hunkering down and avoiding all that this world has to offer just because cowardly, backward-thinking extremists want to scare us.
That’s my take anyway. What about you? Have you traveled to Europe recently, or are you doing so soon? Are you rethinking the decision in the wake of this latest attack? What do you think about the prospects for the travel industry overall? Will the Parisian attacks hurt these companies, or will they bounce back quickly? Let me hear your thoughts at in the comment section below when you have a chance.
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Several of you weighed in on the broader fight against ISIS, the potential long-term impacts of the Paris attacks and what might ultimately happen here on American territory. So I’d like to cover those comments now.
Reader Howard said more conflict in Europe is inevitable due to religious and cultural differences. His take: “Clearly on the surface, the terrorists are spoiling for a fight, or are they just trying to spread Islam around the free world. Consider the massive problems in cultural terms alone for Germany. The Germans will not change and neither will the refugees. Doesn’t make for a peaceful outcome.”
Reader N.S.F. said that it won’t be long before we face domestic threats, offering this view: “Paris and the other attacks are what happen when you don’t control your borders. It’s coming here. It’s just a matter of time.”
Reader James J. had a suggestion about what we should do in response: “It’s time for the American people to be armed. We should be able to protect ourselves. No one else can against this kind of attacks.”
As for the battle against ISIS/ISIL on its home turf, Reader Joe said: “We and our allies are dismantling ISIL daily. Of course we take out fuel convoys. It is reaching the point where if they poke their heads up, they will be met by a Warthog as we take out their command structures daily.
“We are conducting a wise war, one that spares our troops. I’ll take that over bombastic swagger from any chicken hawks and those who support perpetual wars for the benefit of profiteers.”
But Reader Caduceus said we need to take the fight to ISIS as aggressively as possible. His take: “It’s really a bit late to start telling us what we should or shouldn’t have done in the Middle East. What must be considered now is whether we wipe them out or let them wipe us out.
“I don’t think being nice to people who consider that a weakness will do anything for us. We must remember Britain Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s statement after his appeasement policy, signing the Munich Agreement in 1938: ‘Peace in our time.’ Like hell.”
Thank you for weighing in. If you didn’t get a chance to express your views, make sure you go to the comment section below. Meanwhile, I’ll continue to monitor the latest news and developments in the Middle East and Europe — and keep you up to date with my analysis of their impact on the markets and broad economy.
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Russia confirmed what the rest of the world already suspected: The charter plane that crashed in Egypt a couple of weeks ago was brought down by a bomb planted onboard. The Metrojet attack killed all 224 people on board, and the Russians followed their announcement up with fresh air and cruise missile strikes in Syria.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, as did the “core” index that excludes food and energy. Large increases in rents and health care costs helped drive the gains.
While many retailers have been struggling lately, Home Depot (HD) has managed to put up more impressive numbers. The home improvement retailer reported a 5.1% gain in same-store sales, topping expectations. Per-share earnings also beat forecasts, and the company sounded an upbeat note for the full year.
Interesting story from the Financial Times here on how trillions of QE dollars found their way into emerging markets. The easy money prompted massive borrowing in China, Russia, Brazil, and other nations – roughly $9 trillion in bonds and loans according to the Bank for International Settlements.
But the rising dollar, falling commodity prices and slowing global growth are causing those loans to sour at a rapid rate. That’s intensifying global deflationary pressures.
Is that the kind of negative spiral that will drag U.S. stocks down too? What do you think the latest inflation figures suggest about the economy? And how will Russia’s aggressive bombing efforts impact the fight against ISIS? Share your thoughts below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Larry Edelson’s all-new emergency briefing is ONLINE NOW! Click this link for the bombshell forecast he has waited four long years to give you …
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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the bears are out in full force. a sure sign we’re in the bear trap.
Do not stop traveling!
European countries should train and equip the refuges and then send them back to Syria to fight ISIS. They would be the most motivated troops in the world
you mean like the people of Iraq defended thier country?
Wishful thinking but no way. The politically correct shed tears for Islam but ignore Christians who are daily raped, crucified and beheaded. How many deaths will it take before he knows that too many people have died? After Paris we still have people wanting to take if refugees. Obama spreads disinformation saying we are afraid of widows and orphans, when videos show masses of young men refugees. They used to say jolly old England, now it is home grown terrorists and separate legal systems to accommodate violent barbaric Sharia in England. No jolly no more.
this is precisely the time to jump in =whenever something is absolutely sure to
happen= go the opposite way,(that’s how warren buffett ,made his-billions..
why is your response always have to be so PATHETIC ?
perhaps you are just that
1,000, I hear you! Tell us when you think it’s time. Thanks
i don’t try and time anything. my timing is horrible. but everyone’s timing is bad. for example, look at larry trying to time the market – he eats a lot of shoe leather.
The trap we are in is very complicated. Is it too early to go all in???
my plan is to double down in this bear trap, if it pulls back to the neckline of the head & shoulders of this correction. but, if at any point the market drops below the inverted head on september 28, i’ll cut my losses go back to cash. my investment style is to be late to the party or not go at all. i’ll wait for the market to come to me.
actually, my investment style is to buy & hold. my trading style is to buy into corrections and recessions.
So pathetic that you are putting full story links in your emails to drive traffic to your website! Stop with this nonsense! Didn’t work last time, won’t work this time either.
I too love to travel – I was a flight attendant for 12 years in my earlier days and never stopped going places. I must say, though, that what is happening in the Middle East and Europe these days has left me cold on planning a new trip to that part of the world. I went to Turkey 3 years ago and ADORED it but don’t plan a return anytime soon. I think I will wander south to Argentina and Chile, perhaps Columbia and wait and see if we can get a handle on ISIS before venturing to Europe. There are also soooo many places left in the US and Canada that call to me as well. Time will tell.
You have one chance in 39 of being a victim of violent crime in Camden, NJ. Paris and its suburbs are over 12 million people and there are approximately 7 million visitors each year. Somehow I’d feel safer in Paris than in Camden, NJ.
please cancell and unsubscribe this email -from any further mailings. Thank you. Da.
And~ May You “Remain Happy!”
Love, Dani
It won’t slow us down. Your chances of being shot are much higher in the USA than other western countries.
You have a better chance if being hit by lightning than being killed by a terrorist. It’s amazing what an effective weapon it is. Jim
we have dirt cheap oil and rock bottom interest rates, plus we’re in a correction. is there a better time to buy stocks than this?
Best wait for the correction to develop. We are still close to the top in most stocks. Commodities might be close to the bottom though, and those stocks could be buys.
I am much more vigilant, everywhere. I am so glad I visited Italy last summer. I would love to see more of the world, but the bombers like to target civilians. I enjoy a glass of wine, music and sports, so it is likely I would be somewhere where terrorists would leave a backpack or shoot people. Sadly, probably staying home.
If you only have one life, Mary, isn’t it better to enjoy it as much as you can? So “take the cash in hand and leave the rest”, as that wise Persian Omar Khayam, once said.
MIDDLE EAST ALWAYS BEEN A EDGY PLACE
My late parents traveled one time to Cairo, Egypt on a cruise. They were there one day to see the pyramids. My father commented to me upon returning home that Egyptian soldiers armed with automatic weapons were posted in public areas and in guard towers ( like San Quentin). This spoke volumes about the potential for crime, poverty, and radicalism that President Mubaric kept in check. Once the old strongmen were toppled in Libya and Egypt, then Radial Muslim groups took the opportunity to take over these countries (the so-called “Arab Spring” a few years ago).
In concert, American Troops pulled out of the Middle East, creating a huge power vacuum filled by ISIS. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said in a interview on Fox News with Sean Hannity that President Obama helped created ISIS by withdrawing all American Troops from Iraq. So, Ill-conceived U.S. foreign policy brought about both the “Syrian” Refugee crisis in Europe and the resulting carnage in Paris last weekend.
By the time its over, Jordan and Israel will eventually fall or be surrounded by hostile troops or ISIS equivalents. This elevated War on Terror or Global Radical Islam is going to become a generational war over many years. As we reengage our military in the future, our national debts will grow and we will further weaken financially. Europe will collapse, then Japan, and lastly, but not least, the United States.
So, manage your assets and investments accordingly as we progress through this Super-Cycle. Its will be a duzy. Don’t be fooled its winnable or over. Its not. Best if you prepare yourselves. America and the world face many hardships. We have grown too soft and stupid. The price will be high.
‘Prepare yourselves……..the only way is through the ………Only the Great Ail/El, the supreme self existing spirit, will fix this mess. He has his ministering spirits working around the world…..God’s word, Logos, gave us His message about the world and its eventual culmination with the setting up of the Kingdom of God on earth in……..Israel.
As explained to us in the Bible.
But He did warn us there would be troubling times such as never was since there was a nation and that all of this mess ends up with Armageddon. At Armageddon, the worlds armed forces will be fighting outside Jerusalem,….who will appear….Jesus Christ to stop it using natural elements and his army of “redeemed believers”.
Scripture says 2/3rd’s of the worlds population will die….something to think about?
You might think this is baloney,that’s your right and you will eventually end with a lifetime in a plot with a poor view!!. But if you truly want salvation and, the promise of eternal life, you have to change your character to be like God’s and be baptised into Christ. This is your only protection from what is coming.
No Infant baptism, One must be baptised as a believer in Christ who is our redeemer
The mainstream religions of this day will not help you as they believe in a Devil which there is’nt, the Devil.-it is an adversary (you and your sinfully inclined nature); (who was the adversary to Job….his three friends. ,
That there is a Trinity, which there is not , only ONE supreme God, and His Son the Lord Jesus Christ.,
They also believe they go to heaven when they die – not scriptural- the Lord Jesus Christ says He will return to this earth
And other human errors, sadly the Jewish people have a lot of traditions which are kept which are not scriptural,
No paid ministers, priests, rabbi’s….not scriptural.
If you choose to live your way and believe what is right in your own eyes, then you live by time and chance with no protection guaranteed by God.
May God help you all to think on these things and make a change to “newness of life”.
I do not like your new format! I’d much prefer having the whole missive in the email.
Our daughter just got married in England Oct 24th. Sept 5th I had emergeny intestinal surgery. I made it barely in Business Class. Out through Atlanta & back through JFK. After getting home I learned there was still a Metal Staple in my belly. These aren’t small. None of the Scanners caught that. That scares me, don’t know what you think?
Show’s you we are human and anything can happen, even going around with a staple in your belly and not alerting alarm systems at the airpor!!!.
You are very lucky to be alive on that ‘”rushed”basis.
Fred 151- I agree with your outrage, and understand the desire to hit back. This attitude is intended for us by the “strategists” behind the Paris (and other) attacks. It is an ISIS trap. We should resist the itch; it hasn’t solved the problem in the past, and it will only act as a recruiting mechanism and proof of righteousness. We need a new approach, if we are to end this cycle of violence. And incidentally, if we as individuals are to feel more comfortable about traveling in foreign lands.
As Abraham Maslow said in 1966, “I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.”
Attributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Since WW2, over and over again the US has intervened militarily in foreign countries. On the whole, it hasn’t worked. Many people, our own and those we oppose, have died. The new element by ISIS and the like has been blowback. This has brought about what to us are tragedies, to those we have attacked, triumphs.
Factions in the Muslim world have been warring for hundreds of years. Often without regard to Marquis of Queensbury rules. But until the recent attempts at western intervention, their disputes have generally not constituted a major problem for others. We poke the hornet nest at our own unnecessary peril. Let’s stop and think first.
“When will they ever learn?” -Pete Seeger
We must come to the realization that the big Western Nations with their large standing conventional armies and air forces are obsolete, a thing of the past. The small and nimble has defeated or drawn the big and bad in every war since 1950. As usual the politicians and military brass are still trying to fight the last war instead of the current one. Sending an armored infantry battalion to Syria isn’t going to protect the mall in St. Louis. They will duck and cover and hit wherever we are not. Brains not brawn will win this war. There are a lot of Muslims that don’t like ISIS either. We have to arm and support them with our high tech prowess and effectively use our Elite Special Forces. If we go about it correctly we can defeat them in relatively short order. Jim
One thing that we constantly hear about ISIS is how great they are with social media and the use of encryption software. What if we set off an EMP device over Racca (sp), Yemen and other command and control sites, forcing them out in the open and give them a taste of the Highway of Death.
We invented social media and encryption. You would think our best and brightest could smoke them anytime, anywhere. Jim
I remember that after the attacks of the WTC, attendance at the Disney parks fell by more than 50%. I am by no means saying there should be another attack on our country, but it seems that we are more vulnerable now than we were during the first terrorists attacks.
Planning a river cruise through much of Europes problem areas next fall and not sure it is the wisest thing to do but we will go anyway,.since it is prepaid. If I had it to do over we might have gone somewhere else.
If people hunker down in a hole, so to speak, as a reaction to terrorists, then the terrorists win. Everyone should go on about their normal lives as much as possible. Keep your eyes open, of course – you should do that in any case – but don’t change anything you don’t have to. Live, love and laugh as much as you can.
Live a lot,
love a few
learn to paddle your own canoe
The worrisome element here is what kind of endgame is even possible? Their belief system dictates they must fight until all non believers have been eliminated. If that is true then there is no possibility of ever making peace with them. That doesn’t leave us with a whole lot of choices. I think they are counting on us not having the will to see this thing through. Our leaders’ comments certainly indicate that. Jim
Gold is no support only speculation. See it fall to 650 along with platinum and palladium
Hope it does…………I bought PUT options on GLD….doing great so far!
I know this will bring howls of derision, but the real strategic problem here is the Progressive Movement in The West will never allow us to do what we need to do to win. Rome basically allowed themselves to be overwhelmed by the Barbarians and so will we. They lost the will to fight to survive. Jim
The Barbarians of today, strangely enough, are those who want peace at any price. Those who have essentially lost the will to survive, if it means they have to do the fighting. They love to watch the mayhem on the football field or ice rink, though. And they would happily watch TV coverage of war, as long as they don’t have to do the fighting, and it doesn’t come here. It inevitably will, of course.
Hi –
I, for one, would appreciate it if you didn’t truncate these emails any more. I am much more likely to read it if you would put the full body of the text in the email rather than make me click onto your website to do so.
In the end, if you insist on doing it this way, all you will do is lose readers, such as myself, who will decide to read something else, that had been fully sent into their inbox, rather than waste time and effort clicking links.
Sincerely,
Steve Leon
Be mindful about accepting refugees from Syria and Iraqi as the situation is some ISIS ARE filtrating into the refugees. God bless!!
You may believe that ISIS will not have a negative influence on European travel by Americans all you want but you are sadly mistaken. I have already canceled my plans to travel to Paris and see France. I was a tad skeptical at first but completely changed my mind with the latest events. The Caribbean and some of the central American countries like Panama and Costa Rica have now taken the top spots on my travel plans.
I have just come back from a month cruising the Mediterranean, and there is little sight of economic malaise in the ports we visited. Certainly travelling away from the main tourist areas revealed a few “frayed edges” with beggars on the streets and uncollected rubbish due to either strikes or municipalities running out of money.
We did hear a “bump in the night” though, and found out later that our cruise ship had “turned around to search for survivors” of an overturned refugee boat from Syria. It certainly brought us back to the reality of life and death in a violent and economically challenged part of the world.
Many Mediterranean countries, Greece in particular, have tourism as their major industry, and we won’t stop enjoying doing our bit to help them