A series of “bio-bombshells” is hitting the drug stocks where it hurts – in the wallet!
Market Roundup
On Sunday, it was the New York Times that published a story headlined: “Valeant’s Drug Price Strategy Enriches It, but Infuriates Patients and Lawmakers.”
Yesterday, it was the Wall Street Journal with a story titled “For Prescription Drug Makers, Price Increases Drive Revenue.”
And of course, late last month, the industry got its bogeyman in the form of Martin Shkreli. His company, Turing Pharmaceuticals, bought a drug called Daraprim that treats an infection called toxoplasmosis. Then the company proceeded to hike the price by more than 5,000% before backtracking somewhat.
What the heck is going on?
Well, you have a wide variety of biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies that take different approaches to the business.
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Turmoil in the pharma sector. |
Some of the biggest players funnel billions of dollars in profit from patent-protected drugs into research and development, in order to come up with new and better treatments for life-threatening diseases. Politicians and regulators grudgingly accept the rising cost of their drugs because at least they’re re-investing in their businesses.
But companies like Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) are increasingly coming under fire. They’re buying old drugs or entire companies, hiking prices willy-nilly, and distributing huge chunks of profit to shareholders and management rather than investing in R&D.
The Times story notes that Valeant quadrupled the price of a drug called Cuprimine. That drove up the cost of one man’s treatment to $35,000 a month – a cost largely eaten by Medicare. His own out-of-pocket co-pays surged to $1,800 a month from $366.
The Journal tells a separate story about Biogen (BIIB) and its Avonex treatment for multiple sclerosis. Biogen raised its price 21 times, at an average annual increase of 16%, despite falling prescription volume and the fact it’s an older medication. The story goes on to note that U.S sales growth of 30 top drugs surged 61% on average, even as prescriptions rose one-third as much.
There are so many sides to this story that it’s hard to track them all. Surging drug prices raise widespread ethical, political and social concerns.
But this column is focused on the investment implications of world developments. And the negative publicity is clearly putting downside pressure on biotech stocks in particular and drug stocks in general. Reason: Investors are worried Washington could slap price controls or other punitive measures on pharma companies that have been making billions for their shareholders off the backs of vulnerable, sick Americans.
Valeant has tanked by $100 a share just since August, while Biogen has dropped $200 in only seven months. The benchmark iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has lost more than 15% in only the past three months, and is desperately trying to hold above its August panic low.
“Is it a scourge on society or a fair-game approach?” |
I would keep a very close eye on those August lows if I owned any biotech stocks or ETFs. If that area of technical support can’t hold, it will probably lead to even more follow-on selling as investors throw in the towel. That, in turn, could put more downward pressure on investments like the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ). After all, biotech and other health-care companies make up around 14% of its holdings.
So what do you think about surging drug prices and the corporate strategy of firms like Valeant? Is it a scourge on society or a fair-game approach? Will the government step in at some point? What form could increased regulation or penalties take?
Lastly, do you own any biotech or pharma stocks, and if so, how are you reacting to this news? Here’s the link to the Money and Markets website where you can sound off.
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I asked a simple question yesterday: Is everything awesome again? I got a lot of great responses, so let’s get right to them.
Reader Myron R. said: “This market has been so hard to trade. Got stopped out of a short position yesterday. The market wants to go up, but the data and fundamentals don’t warrant it. But I guess we are back to bad news is good news. What happens next will tell a lot as we are at a strong resistance level which the market hasn’t closed above in a long time.”
Reader Jim W. said: “What happened Friday and yesterday in the markets was just the realization that our dismal job numbers mean that the Fed won’t be raising interest rates for quite a while. As soon as we start getting some companies reporting some bad earnings, the market will react to that and start down again.”
And Reader Carla added: “It’s early October and I am cynical that a little exuberant bounce is anything but that. Perhaps it’s just inflation, but to my perception, despite the correction, prices still look high.
“From my perspective, some equities are just beginning to come into buying range and I’m patiently waiting for more downdraft drama. I do remember 2008 very well and had a marvelous time shopping: Diamonds are a girl’s best friend, especially when they are high grade and priced deliciously.”
Meanwhile, on the topic of the Fed, Reader Michael C. said: “It troubles me to think, no less suggest this, but I don’t believe that the Fed can, or will, increase the interest rates by more than 0.25%. As our national debt rolls over, it (most of it) must be recast, and if interest rates begin increasing, our medium-, and long-term debt repayments will swell beyond our ability to repay it in a sensible fashion.
“The fix to this problem would be to increase all forms of taxes (federal), but there is little stomach for that solution, especially in a political season. There are solutions, but they, as they always have been, are very painful.”
And Reader Alan W. weighed in on the topic of employment, saying: “Jobs — good jobs, with insurance and retirement plans — are missing in action. We gave them all away to Mexico and China. Without them, the golden goose is missing some eggs.
“We are in a transformation between manufacturing jobs to the information age, with much less need for humans that get paid decent for doing the mundane. It’s hard to drive an economy this size on less and less workers with less and less payroll to tax. Debt loads are way out of control. We can’t afford all the goodies our governments are giving away.”
Great thoughts all around, and I appreciate you sharing them. It’s obvious to me that this economic recovery is sorely lacking compared with what we’ve seen in other post-recessionary periods. The list of headwinds is long, and the list of potential solutions that might actually see the light of day is short.
Now, it looks like even the anemic recovery is succumbing to a multitude of domestic and overseas threats. I believe that’s a tough environment in which to buy stocks, despite the rally of the past couple days.
Agree? Disagree? Something in between? Then let me hear about it over at the Money and Markets website.
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Nelson Peltz and his Trian Fund Management firm are notorious for buying stakes in companies, taking board seats, and agitating for management changes, strategic shifts, and the like. But the activist investor’s latest $2.5 billion bet on General Electric (GE) appears different.
GE is a huge industrial conglomerate and Peltz’s suggestions for what it should do are fairly run-of-the-mill. That’s leading to questions about whether his involvement will actually do anything longer term for shareholders.
Volkswagen AG is shutting down non-essential investments and planning to cut spending to the bone as it struggles with the potentially huge financial impact of its emissions scandal. The carmaker may need to pay more than $7 billion to fix affected vehicles, plus several billion dollars more in fines in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere.
The energy industry has been battered and bruised by the collapse in oil prices. But it appears to be getting closer to a significant legislative win: The repeal of the U.S.’s 40-year-old ban on exporting crude oil. The ban was enacted during the era of Arab oil embargos, but looks increasingly unnecessary thanks to the surge in U.S. oil and gas production.
Should we export oil? Will Volkswagen be able to survive this self-inflicted crisis? Do you think the gains in GE shares will stick? Hit up the website and let me hear about these or other topics of the day.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
{ 56 comments }
Do you think it is an accident that Obamacare left the Drug Companies to set their drugs prices as they see fit? Is anyone surprised that the Drug Companies have sent their drug prices to the moon? The only question yet to be answered, is how long it takes the American public to finally demand that all those drug prices should go through a “single payer system”, much like Medicare?
It is not just Obama’s administration, but all the administrations. Much of every administration’s political financial support comes from Big Pharma, and other medical groups and people. Their money talks, of course. Loudly.
Obama brought Obamacare and that has brought millions to the drug companies alter… By allowing Big Pharma it’s greed, that has driven even millions more to demand change…. As soon as the GOP realizes that it is losing even more votes, the move will occur…
VW IS FACING NOT SEVERAL BILLIONS BUT TENS OF BILLIONS BETWEEN CLASS ACTION SUITS, PUNITIVE DAMAGES, RECALL OF MILLIONS CARS AND ALSO RE-IMBURSMENT OF MILLIONS CARS
No I don’t think it’s an accident that Obama left the door open for huge price increases because what do you expect from a bill that nobody read prior to its passing. Remember Nancy Pelosi said “We have to pass it to see what’s in it.” Congress just wanted plausible deniability and I’m willing to bet the legislation was written entirely by lobbyists and politicians who received big contributions from health care special interests. With our congress, everything is for sale. The question is, who is health care policy going to represent in this country, wealthy monopoly pharmacrats, or we the people. Is the Office of the President just going to be in charge of doling out favors to Wall Street banks and pharmaceutical companies. Obama said healthcare was going to be universal and affordable and it’s time to hold the government to that promise. The President appoints all 5 members of the Securities and Exchange Commission so the office has the power to regulate whatever happens on Wall Street. I don’t think any one company should have a monopoly on life saving drugs. Utility prices are regulated because utilties are a natural monopolies and it seems that type of regulation could be applied to pharmaceuticals especially since the government passed laws regulating health care.
I believe it was the Reagan Administration that allowed the Public Utilities to go private, to bring “lower rates”… Boy, was than another GOP con job on the average American!… :(
just think mikey s. obamacare has been a disaster since it was signed into law by the liberals, the progressives the democrats yes I remember when nancy Pelosi made THESE FAMOUS WORDS …….. LETS SIGN IT FIRST THEN TALK ABOUT IT LATER referring to Obamacare and that’s whats you get when you have a liberal progressive democrat controlled congress and a liberal progressive democrat controlled senate and a liberal progressive democrat controlled presidency ASK YOURSELF THIS WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN ………… TO HAVE A BILL SIGNED INTO LAW WITHOUT READING IT FIRST……………. yea you guessed it a democrat controlled congress ,senate, presidency as we saw in 2008
great insight!
A great insight that completely ignores the role the EPA and greenies have had in giving us much higher rates. No one has done more to raise utility rates than Barack Hussein Obama, and he’s just getting started. He promised us in the campaign that his policies would “necessarily cause utility rates to rocket higher” and he delivered. Jim
Jim,
If we look at power rates they have been climbing since Reagan set them free at great cost to the average citizen…. Where I live the EPA has removed a lot of snog and the fish are returning to our streams that once had a lot of industrial wastes dumped into them… I’m all for the EPA… One day we won’t have to burn hydrocarbons….
Now a word from the DNC…
All patented drugs cause harm to the body. People need to wake up and quit killing themselves on these drugs! There are so many natural remedies that are break-thru and actually cure many diseases. The AMA and Pharma giants are too damned big in this country, their non-stop ads on tv need to be stopped and politicians need to ban the patent process, along with the FDA who’s only reason for being appears aimed at collecting huge payolas from the stuffed Pig Pharmas. A total re-education of the medical establishment should take place in natural medicine. We are so far behind other countries in this respect.
Yes, I agree, Jean. Think of all the patent medicine drugs that have had to be recalled and forbidden because they flatly do harm. There are drugs that are useful, but few of them treat the causes of disease – they mostly ameliorate symptoms, which can be good, but only as a stopgap until the causes can be addressed. There are other forms of medicine such as Traditional Chinese and Indian Ayurveda, for example, which the conventional Western systems ignore, but which could be incorporated into the Western systems, at least in part. They often address the causes of disease. Big Pharma’s toady, the FDA, often forbids them, instead, especially if they use natural treatments that can’t be patented for profit.
Jean,
This may make you crazy, but it is called Socialized Medicine and it is practiced in every major civilized country except the U.S….. I’m English by birth and most drugs there are about 30% or lower than of what they are in the U.S…. :(
HEY MIKEY S. if its so great over there …….. move back ……. we wont miss you go back to your liberal paradise
I’m with you 100 per cent. How we got to the point that dangerous drugs and surgery are our only alternatives is crazy. Big Pharma endows most of the medical schools. The Merck Rep probably determines our treatment as much as anyone. Jim
Very good, Jim. The Merck Rep also sees to it that the med. school instructors know to teach that patent meds are the way to go. They might earn a nice resort trip for doing so. Doctors, also, for prescribing them.
If we lift the ban on exporting oil, it will be a huge win for the oil lobby. Oil prices have somewhat normalized, supply & demand. Why give Big Oil an excuse to gouge the American public with inflated prices once again.
There is no good reason why American producers should not be allowed to participate in the world market. To read these posts one would be led to believe every industry is a gouger except for yours. Free Markets lead to good and fair results while government controlled and regulated markets do not. The real problem with oil is that over 80 per cent of it is controlled by government owned enterprises. Their political goals and general ineptitude always leads to distortions. I have said it many times, but most of the cheap oil has already been found and produced. Most of the big new supplies are very expensive to produce. When 60 per cent of the US drilling rigs are parked at the yard you eventually have a big problem with future supply. Jim
It seems like if all that oil now in storage in the U.S. were to hit the world market, the price of oil would fall even more than it already has. Wouldn’t it?
Probably, but that’s how markets are supposed to work. If we could export we wouldn’t have those big builds distorting markets in the first place. QE had a lot to do with the current glut, it wasn’t at all a rational trend. If the current price was a “fair price” you wouldn’t see 1,000 drill rigs parked and over 100,000 skilled oil workers sitting at the house. I’m a little crazy, but I trust the markets to achieve a rational price level and it isn’t $44 a barrel. The “new oil” requires a much higher price to be exploited. The “Big Oil Conspiracy” just doesn’t hold water when you consider that private companies don’t control but about 15 per cent of the oil. Jim
The bad guys in this scenario are now and always have been our “friends”, the incredibly greedy and wealthy Saudis. They can pump 10 million barrels a day at a cost of less than $10 a barrel. It should be obvious by now any talk of conspiracy should be squarely laid at their feet. Jim
Having recently retired from over thirty years in social service, Isaw many clients that risked eviction and starvation, because they could not pay rent or buy food and also pay for medication. Their income, while low, was over the Medicaid limit. Medicare part D was not sufficient. As you note, one person was paying $1800 monthly copayment for drugs-what happens to a person whose income is $2300 monthly? Medical bills are the largest cause of bankruptcy in this country, but nobody wants to deal with it.
Thank you for pointing that fact out….
I have followed the market since the late 70’s after I heard President Carter comment at the Tokyo Economic Summit in June 1979 on how “it was the policy of the US Gov. to lower the American Standard of living to become more in line with the rest of the world”. I heard it on SW radio directly from Japan (it was not broadcast in the US or on any US outlets). Neither does the Carter library have a record of the speech! I wonder why? Ask your selves has this come to pass?
I believe medical costs will ultimately come down if the market supports it (Medicare, private insurance, etc.) I also believe Congress will reign in the phony patents on essentially existing drugs that were scheduled to expire before too long.
If the US doesn’t get its spending/tax policy in balance, it is only a matter of time before the big crash occurs: Then no one survives intact.
This is just the present thoughts of a senior citizen who has tried to survive in this crazy environment. Thanks.
Congratulations on reaching Medicare age where you get complete medical care at a much lower price thanks to that “single payer” system…… I had to have a hip replacement years ago due to a military injury…. I waited four months and saved $4,000 out of pocket….. Yea, I knew I could have done it through the VA, but I was very particular about whom I would have replace my hip….
I think part of the problem is that reasonably informed people like myself have absolutely no clue as to how the medical industry works and how costs are determined. I have to defer to others here. Jim
Not knowing much about this I ask the question as to why Free Market solutions won’t work here. Our problems seem to have originated with advent of a third party payer. Why can’t the doctor and patient interact without the middle man being involved in any way? When I was born in 1950 there was no insurance involved and my parents were billed $125 and had six months to pay. My last child ( with insurance) cost nearly $12,000. Even with inflation I can only ask: Why? Jim
The AMA made sure that the graduation rates in America didn’t keep up with population growth… Now rates are much higher… In Socialized countries, the number of patients that a doctor sees is about 1/2 of here in America…. Medicine, like utilities is a necessity of life and should not be private…
MIKEY S. didn’t go into the V.A hospital for obvious reasons, the V.A. doesn’t let you out till youre fixed and its hard to fix a broken record im sure they would have been looking at the DSM 5R in mikeys case
Yeah, I own a large long position in one biotech stock. It has gotten hammered recently. I think (though I have not done the research), that the market is currently slamming anything smelling of healthcare. I am wagering three things-1) the fundamental market need for improved healthcare and treatment regimines will eventually prevail (price controls don’t work); 2) the wheat will be separated from the chaff and the majority of companies that are not relying on price gouging will rise above the market’s current healthcare broad brush; and 3) politicians are notoriously long on words and short on action and the hyperbole (though in islolated instances valid) surrounding this issue will eventually be subordinated to others.
I have been told the speed traders are doing the same thing to biotech as they did the
MLPs. Trading huge blocks of the ETFs for a quick buck and artificially driving the prices down in the process. I don’t think the fundamentals are near as bad as they appear. Jim
All of medicine is regulated except for the drug companies. Insurance companies are regulated to some extent by having to spend a percentage (I think 80%) of revenues on patient care. But they still manage to be corrupt by getting to count their huge teams of reviews as patient care, while their primary job is to deny care. They have the luxury now of buying politicians, evidenced by Part D Medicare law requiring the government pay full retail price, ie the government cannot negotiated prices (unlike insurance companies, the VA and Medicaid). When the great majority of US Citizens want to import medications, lawmakers prove their corruption by voting against these bills.
Finally, why should the drug companies be able to export (outsource) all their research to India, while it is against the law for US Citizens to import. Another trick they us to enhance profits are to approve a medication but then set the copay so high that the patient cannot afford the medication, hence they are effectively denying care. One example is a prescription for Nexium for my step daughter for $138 per month. So I went online and bought what I thought was a generic–Neksium-for $15 per month. The medication arrived and guess who the manufacturer was–Astra Zeneca-the makers of brand name Nexium.
It is time for Congress to be accountable to the American People who they are supposed to represent. They need to stop worshiping at the altar of Big Pharma, who is lining their pockets with gold. This is corrupt and unethical.
Remember, Bill, these are politicians you are talking about. Usually lawyers who make a career or sucking at the public teat. Nothing is illegal or unethical to them until it puts them in prison – which seldom happens.
Today I bought Labu ,direxion bull bio…..it was down from $45.00 to $14.75 It has a good group of holdings! some now and some later if it goes down more!
The USofA is about the only country that does not have some kind of price control on prescription drugs. Companies like Turing Pharma are taking advantage of that. All Obamacare did was give big pharma and big medical a license to rob the nation’s piggy bank, it was the wrong solution like everything else in Clueless Leaders misadministration. Price controls and how healthcare is delivered, and what kinds of treatments are available was the first steps. There are treatments that work, are less invasive, and cost a whole lot less that are legal, in some cases over a century, in just about the whole rest of the earth but banned here because big p and m can’t make outrageous profits, screw the patient. Instead of a joint replacement how about a shark cartilage injection and coral/calcium in the bone? Both knees under a grand, just step over either border, treatment since before 1900 but banned here. And since big p and m own our politicians, you’ll get lip service and no change.
Ted,
It is that “clueless leaser” that brought us Obamacare, just like Romney brought it to Mass. That is one step closer to Socialized Medicine which works better than our medicine… Incidentally, Eisenhower tried to bring us socialized medicine in the 1950’s….. In my opinion, he would be a Democrat in today’s far right GOP environment, that spends more time worrying about fraudulent Benghazi investigations and women’s health restrictions than running the country… :(
Kevin McCarthey is a piece of work. Aye! Jim
ALL private companies think their first duty is to reward investors and themselves. That is the difference between government controlled services and private industry. The former work for the public good and are NOT primarily concerned with PROFIT. By definition you should always be better off with government services= if there is profit, it goes back into the public kitty. The private companies need to provide reward in the form of dividends to those who invested, but if that reward is extortionate or price of the stock goes up beyond sensible levels, then the whole economy gets skewed to the rich, who have so much money they don’t know where to park it!!!!!! That is also the reason QE hasn’t worked : whereas if money had been given to middle and lower income producers they would have spend that money and produced the velocity for money to move through the economy.
The US is the last, major uncontrolled pharmaceutical market in the world. The US pulls the laboring oar on much of the research because prices are not controlled and profits can cover the $1 billion needed to develop a new drug Sooner or later the US will need to decide if the higher prices justify the research gains. If price controls, or some manner of that e.g. a national formulary, are implemented one can guarantee that research will be cut back and new drug development will slow down dramatically. Pay your money and take your chances.
HELLO YOU GUYS AND GALS…YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS; EITHER YOU WANT REASONABLE GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION/CONTROLS….. OR YOU LAY YOURSELF OPEN TO THESE MONEYGRABBERS………WHAT DO YOU WANT??????
I hope the government bureaucrats don’t read your website as this may giv ethem some ideas…The Fed wants (although I don’t think it is mandated to do so) a rising stock market as well as banks lending money. I can kill two birds with one stone… negative interest rates. 1) This allows them to lower interest rates (boosting the stock market) and 2) encourages people and businesses to borrow and spend, solving the lack of lending and lower stock prices dilemmas.
You’d better hope no government wonks read this site, also, and take up your idea. Negative interest would tend to push money out into the markets, instead of where it has been hiding since the Fed printed it. That would give us the inflation the Fed has been wanting… in spades. Increased spending means the end of “sales” and low prices, after all. Do you really want that.?
Corporate greed is alive and well. Robots will replace most people. who will be left to buy corporate products? Volkswagen will probably be too big to fail, just as it comes to light about drug companies raising drug prices 5,000% Did a robot do that?
Oil exports should be allowed before Iran sanctions are lifted, otherwise we will lose market share.
I hold three biotech stocks. One is European and unaffected by the selloff. The other two are down at least 20% from where I expected them to be trading. Fortunately one is an obvious buyout candidate and is shopping itself actively, so I’m not concerned. The other has rallied 20% from its low as a major binary event approaches, so it is recovering.
Unfortunately, today’s selloff was triggered by the patent restrictions in the Pacific Trade Pact. The IBB bounced before hitting the 285 support level, which shows how resilient the sector has been in the face of a non-stop salvo of bad press.
I’m optimistic for the sector. The GOP will NEVER agree to regulate drug prices or to allow Medicare to negotiate prices. In fact, immediately after the TPP patent restrictions were published, Republicans condemned it in the press; no surprise.
If our jobs went to China, why is their economy so bad?
Because China has no idea how a Free Capitalistic Economy works and has squandered trillions on cities that will never be lived in….. Think it is bad there now, just wait until the “Buy American” gets traction and all those slave labor factories are siting idle and they are broke….. Of course, that also will make them dangerous….. Read “The Bear And The Dragon” By Tom Clancy……
The question of exporting oil form the USA goes to the basic concept of capitalism. If it is financially viable for those who produce oil to sell their product, crude oil, on the international market then they should be allowed to do so. Naturally, there are products produced in the USA that should be controlled. The manufactures of our top weapons should have, and do have, export controls. Crude oil is not a “top secret” technology. The ban on exporting crude is just one more example of politicians meddling in markets and inhibiting free enterprise.
Tom R
JNJ does not appear to be as affected by the downturn in Bio-Techs, at least at this time, however all my ETF’s have taken a big hit, FBT, PJP, XBI. I do not plan on selling any of the ETF’s, if any of you think I am crazy, I won’t be offended if you tell me so.
Doyle Johnson
THE MAJOR US CORPORATIONS ARE BANKING THEIR MONEY OFF SHORE AND NOT PAYING U.S. TAXES. GOOD MOVE! WHEN THEY GET IN TROUBLE THEY CAN HAVE THE IRISH ARMY AND NAVY PROTECT THEIR INTERESTS OR MAYBE THE SWISS NAVY.
WHEN THEY COME HAT IN HAND TO WASHINGTON FOR HELP, JUST REFER THEM TO THEIR RESPECTIVE OFF SHORE GOVERNMENTS. GOOD LUCK!!!!
Well said…… We can thank their buddies in the GOP for allowing those loopholes in the tax laws to be allowed…
Ny Mob Money 1120!!Rip Al,John,&Rome!!
Mike has a very interesting free Bond Bombshell report available from Weiss Education – it’s long, 38 pages, large print, but save it and read it – even print it out. It has a lot of info, and ratings that can be useful.
It’s time to do what the rest of the industrialized world has already done. Provide single payer pharmaceuticals and discourage profiteering pharmaceutical firms from doing business.
This may lead to single payer healthcare where the Govt or Major hospitals take over the administration of healthcare from the profiteers and Kick the toll keeper Medical insurance people out of the equation,
Talk to your Senators and Congressmen about this problem….. That said, if they are Republicans, don’t be surprised if NOTHING happens…. They were against Obamacare (exactly the same as Romneycare) and against a single payer system also…. Only the Democrats are in favor of creating a system very similar to Europe, Canada and the rest of the civilized world!… :( Me thinks the AMA, Pharmaceuticals and Insurance cabals give HUGE donations to the GOP (probably in dark pools, so that they won’t be identified)… :(
The biotech industry should be allowed to make a profit, but not gouge patients who need the medicine whether it’s private insurers or Medicare who eventually have to pay. If a company decides to raise the price too much, then the regulators need to step in.