The real estate crash that began in 2006 is one of the most painful economic crises this nation has ever faced. Housing collapsed first, followed by commercial real estate — and the financial system was pushed to the brink of a full-scale meltdown.
I’m very glad I warned readers of the Safe Money Report well in advance of that crisis, and helped them avoid the crushing fallout. Now, I’m worried we could be facing yet another day of reckoning.
In a nutshell, too much cheap, easy money has flooded into the commercial real estate (CRE) market. That has pushed valuations to astronomical highs, property yields to rock-bottom lows, and CRE lending to dangerously aggressive levels. As the credit cycle turns and easy money drains back out, investors who overextended themselves in the sector are going to get hammered.
Too much cheap, easy money has flooded into the commercial real estate market. |
We’re also going to see additional, potentially very hefty losses among banks with too much exposure to CRE. That will put additional stress on a sector that’s already struggling, not to mention the markets as a whole. Regulators are so worried, they warned the entire banking industry in December to back off and take steps to insulate themselves from future losses.
What’s behind these concerns? Just consider the following:
* A benchmark commercial property index rose 10% in value last year — even as junk bonds tanked, credit indices tightened up significantly, and many sectors of the stock market struggled. Can that divergence really persist for long? I’m skeptical.
* CRE values are so inflated, they have now eclipsed the credit mania peak from 2007 by around 16%. Select, high-profile properties in major metropolitan markets like New York City are as much as 60% more expensive now than they were back then. If the economy is slowing, it will drive vacancy rates higher, rent growth lower, and make those valuations look patently ridiculous.
* CRE transaction volume surged 26% last year to $546 billion. That’s just shy of the 2007 credit mania peak. M&A among publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) more than doubled between 2014 and 2015 — hitting a record high. We all know what happened after 2007 in real estate, so this M&A/purchase mania is another red flag.
Lastly, foreign capital and sovereign wealth fund money dog-piled into CRE in the past 12-18 months. I hate to say it, but foreign money has a history of being “dumb money” in real estate. You probably remember how Japanese buyers overpaid for real estate in California, New York, and elsewhere in the late 1980s and early 1990s … then took a huge bath when that bubble popped.
With commodities, foreign currencies, and foreign economies slumping, today’s foreign buyers are going to have less capital and fewer reserves to commit to future purchases. Some will have to liquidate, and the pressure will only grow the weaker the global economic picture gets.
So keep a close eye on REIT shares, and the underlying CRE market. I believe this could be the next major market story — and that there will be steps you can take to both protect your wealth and to profit from the trend.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg have prepared a special three-part presentation. Its called “Three Shocking Forecasts for 2016.”
The three presentations will be hosted by Larry Edelson, Mike Burnick and yours truly!
It contains vital information to help make 2016 a very profitable year.
Click this link to get all the information, and to register.
{ 67 comments }
Good Morning Mr Larson, I would agree with your view. However in reading several postings of Mr Edelson over the past two months, it would appear that he believes that many outside this country will pour a great deal of money into stocks, ect. Maybe I did not correctly intertwine the two, which is entirely possible. Maybe you can clearup this misunderstanding. Thank You TA
Many countries are failing.The oligarchs and elites have been buying into real estate,equities and U.S. treasuries.They still consider the U.S. as a safe haven for their money.Perception is everything. THis will continue for a awhile. These truly are bubbles and will bust in time. Time is always the mystery. China has been the biggest buyer,moving large sums of money from China even though it is against their laws. Now they have moved into buying gold, for better or for worse. We”ll see.
I think both are correct. Real estate will continue to see a flood of foreign capital, but reit stock prices will go down as they are mainly priced on yield, as rents decline, prices will fall to maintain yield. If you are a direct buyer/seller of QUALITY real estate you should do well, avoid the securities though.
“The Sky is Falling, the sky is falling”…..Seems like a daily scream about this and that impending Crash. which during a Progressive Liberal Administration has NEVER happened in ALL of America’s history…..
As for the last Real Estate and Stock Market Crash, the die was cast when the Conservative Congressional Majority did two incredibly stupid things, in my opinion…:
First, they removed the “Inner City Restriction” from Barney Franks’s bill (before it was passed) which eased standards lending for the Inner cities. That allowed the “liar loans” to go nationwide at great profit to the Big Banks, while turning that great initiative into a house of cards…. Today most of the still performing loans under that program are in the “Inner Cities”…
Secondly, they removed the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 (Graham/Leach/Blyle) which allowed a return of the highly leveraged and highly dangerous kinds of trading that brought 1929 (Glass- Steagall was made law in 1933 to stop that type of trading).Sadly Clinton signed off on the removal rather than vetoing it… :(
On the 1st trading day of January 2008 the Long Term Sell Signal was sounded and the rest was history until another Liberal Progressive President was elected in 2009 who took measures to stop the Crash again… For those not aware, FDR did basically the same thing in 1932 after Conservative Hoover’s Crash in 1929…
Again, the dotcom bust started under Clinton. Go back and look at your historical charts.
And now, the greatest stock market collapse in history has started…..under your fave lefty….. Barack Obama. 495, Your DNC talking points must have been constructed by Hillary Clinton.
151,
Fella, you got to quit getting your ‘facts” from right wing sites:
1: S&P 500 when Bill Clinton came to office January 1993 was 431.
S&P 500 when Bill Clinton left Office on January 2001 was 1320
S&P 500GAIN during the Administrations of Bill Clinton: 889 or 206% GAIN!
2: S&P 500 when Cheney/bush came to Office January 2001 1320
S&P 500 when Cheney/bush Left Office January 2009 903
S&P 500 LOSS during the Cheney/bush Administration 415 or 46% LOSS!
3. S&P 500 GAIN since Obama took office in January 2009 1,103 or 112%
What? Right Wing News Sites didn’t tell you that? Gee, how unusual, aye? Perhaps a little off on the FACTS aye?….. Geeezzz!… :(
Money Money…makes the world go ’round! Print some more so Eagle can hound!
Funny how all of this Democrap economic growth occurs when Democraps get us into wars, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam War, continuing Iraq and Afgan wars. Is it worth a few more points added to GDP when millions of young men must die to feed the growth? So easy to cherry pick growth, when I could easily go back and pick out something like Republican administrations second and third years, after reversing disastrous Democrap policies, far outstrip growth in Democrap admins. Such weasel-like, leftist talking points. And guess what Communists have the best economic growth of all, according to every measure THEY make. Ain’t nobody got time for the propaganda you spew.
Have you ever heard about the FED balance sheet of 4.5 trillion dollars of fiat money that has fueled this rabid stock market for the last seven years? Stupid monetary policy by Obama and his minions (Janet Yellen) will eventually collapse this fake house of cards built on a sand foundation. You liberals wouldn’t know an economy if it bit you on the butt.
WHAT EAGLE495 will never admit that anything bad happens under any democrat voted into office all recessions start 18 months before they are verified with 2 negative quarters of GDP growth so the reality which eagle495 has little of is the recession started early in bill Clintons second term
Talk about fantasy. The so-called “Progressives” pushed banks to make a lot of bad loans in the name on increasing home ownership, which had disastrous effects. They then pushed the GSE’s to buy weak loans. The Progressives never learn that they are not as smart as markets are.
Average gains during Progressive Administrations between 1932 and 2008:10%
Average Gains during Conservative Administrations curing the same period: 0.4%
Difference in accumulated gains 1932-2008 167 time more under Liberals!
If the research period were pushed forward to 2016, the gains under those “Commi Pinko” Liberals would have been even greater!…… Facts, not right wing propaganda, aye?……. :(
Who do you think creates all of the bubbles that eventually crash and take trillions of wealth with them. Sure the hell ain’t the conservatives. Commie pinko liberals.Enough said.
Hi Jim,
Well Stated.. Dems are generally not producers of actual hard goods…
but they like to speculate on who will be the Winners in the markets..
If they can not make more money through a thriving Manufacturing base,
then they borrow to cause Inflation and collect more taxes, even if the Dollars
dropped in Value to achieve a phony growth..
Where did the Quantitative Easing Cash go..? Stock Markets, Foreign Banks,
and the pockets of the already Rich..
Where did the Infrastructure Money Go? Certainly very few Bridges were built, and we still see this need… $4 Trillion could have replaced virtually all of the US Bridges… Instead, Unionized State Employees kept their jobs, but were mostly repaving roads and painting Lines on them..
There was One Bridge that fell down 9 years ago, and we all heard about it…
(Minneapolis/St Paul) What have we heard about it since then
http://www.twincities.com/2012/07/29/five-years-after-35w-bridge-collapse-mndot-repairs-on-track/
Who will pay for this ?… Savers, the Millennials and those who studied the last Big Depression.. Playing with Interest Rates can stabilize an economy in the short term, but when it continues for years, that encourages only the Speculators and not the Builders and Manufacturers
Eagle 495: You remind me of the same idiotic nimrods who thought nothing wrong was going on prior to the last implosion. You may want to wake up and quit ignoring the facts. But then again maybe not we need more people to absorb the losses. Stay put the Market needs your money.
The partial repeal of Glass-Steagall and the financial crisis: After decades of lobbying and proposed legislation, some of the Glass-Steagall provisions were repealed in 1999, when President Bill Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act.
Are you saying Clinton was a conservative?
No Clinton was a Liberal Progressive….. In my opinion, he got bad advise on NAFTA (which started, developed and became law under H.W. Bush and his Majority Conservative Congress) and Glass-Steagall… Either that or he sold us out like the Conservatives did in both cases…. :(
SO YOUR SAYING BILL CLINTON GOT BAD ADVICE SO YOUR SAYING NOT UNTIL HIS 5TH YR OF GETTING BAD ADVICE DID HE FINALLY RELINQUISH AND SIGN THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT pleassssssseeeeeee..
more eagle495 B/S how come you cant admit the second depression which started in 1937 under FDR FRANKLIN DELANORE ROOSEVELT A DEMOCRAT STARTING HIS SECOND TERM happened. or is it that depressions don’t happen with democrats
lets talk about jimmy carter and the mess he left this country in when he left office oh did I forget to mention he was a democrat
Amazing what wonders the Liberal money printing press can achieve! Only cost us about 11 trillion in debt.
But, heck, the libs postponed Armageddon so partisans like this guy can “Blame it on [Bush][Hoover][Reagan] (Insert your favorite GOP fall guy)”
Then, the next conservative administration has to come along, deal with and try to clean up their mess. I don’t envy the task this corrupt, lying, fraud of a government has left for the next Republican administration.
And BTW….Robert Reich was the force behind dumping Glass Steagall. Read Rickard’s last book.
I have read Rickard’s last Book….. Are you serious?….. :)
hey mikey s. or should I say eagle495 did I UPSET YOU when I mentioned several days ago Hillery Rodham Clinton is going to be indicted I got this from a good source…………. notice today 22 top secret e-mails the FBI found on her server so top secret that they cant be mentioned to the public ….. oh by the way theres more coming meanwhile Hillery Clinton is still trying to pawn this off as a right wing conspiracy and a attack on women HAVE A WONDERFUL WEEKEND EAGLE495 OR IS IT MIKEY S. OR IS IT HELEN
Remember when investors from Asia were on a buying spree a couple of decades ago? They bought everything from the Empire State Building (not the land under it) to Golf Courses in California. The prices took off like they were propelled by rockets. Then later they sold out at huge loses, like sixty cents or less on the dollar, which was close to the value they were at originally before the binge. Also note the higher the interest rate goes the less the selling price tends to be. Also note that the cost of a house as a percentage of family income has increased and more families are two income just to afford a house. As long as that trend continues we will have a yo-yo housing market until prices become more in line with the rest of the economy. My grandfathers both bought houses for less than four times their annual income, one paid cash with his apprentice bonus from the mighty Southern Pacific Company. (Always wondered what Grandpa Bill’s credit rating would be. Paid cash for the house and contents, his cars, only had accounts with Pacific Gas and Electric and water district and the local grocery store which he paid every Friday Grandpa went to work after the fourth grade for the EsPee and grandma was taken out of third grade to work in a laundry to help support a drunk father who drank himself out of a job on the market Street Cable in SF and the rest of the family and they put four kids through college, three at Cal Berkeley) My father’s rose to five times and the term rose to twenty years from fifteen., Look at the comparison now, although they are fancier with really unneeded features.
Interesting note about your grandfather buying a home with a cash bonus.
I’m only 45, but all I’ve seen in my life is consumption pushed forward. People used to buy stuff on layaway, deferring consumption until the cash was earned. Now people buy on credit, and now with lower and lower interest rates, pulling more and more future consumption into the present. Governments deep in debt per unit of GDP, parents giving kids down payments kids could not save from retirement savings the parents hope they won’t need. Kids earning so much less than their parents cannot buy the equities and debt instruments their parents’ pensions must sell.
The global central banks cannot buy everything for ever…
Periods when the richest 3% had more wealth than the 97%: 1929 and 2007….. Both after long periods of Conservative Domination…..
Isn’t income equality the essence of communism? And who wants income equality besides unproductive, willfully unemployed, members of society?
No… As Income Inequity comes down the velocity of Money INCREASES and the Economy INCREASES…. The economy between 1932 and 1981 is a good example of this…. If the average American has more money in his pocket he spends it and jobs are create to manufacture the products or services that the money is being spent on…..
I bought my first house in the mid 60s in the LA area for $10,000; and my second house in the LA area for $38,000 in 1971, just before the dollar was taken off the gold standard. Once the dollar was off the gold standard, not only did housing costs skyrocket but so did inflation. Big government has destroyed a way of life that made people happy. Today life will only get worse and the young have little opportunity or incentive to support themselves. They exist but do not live. Life was great in the 60s, 70s, and 80s; but for today’s young people, I do not expect they will ever experience the opportunities of a half century ago. Life has not advanced in the US in recent years when measured in experiences.
You are living in Southern California where MANY want to live and therefore your values have gone up……Thank your lucky stars that you were not living in Detroit, or Flint or many other cities that have been destroyed since the Conservatives brought trade agreements that got millions of good paying Middle Class American jobs shipped overseas!…..
Which side of politics has been running Detroit in recent decades?????
And where did the legislation come from that sent those manufacturing jobs overseas? Hint: It was not the Progressive Liberals…
Hi Eagle495,
You are right… It was Not Legislation. Consumers drove the Demise.
How about a cause like exorbitant Union Demands from largely Democrat Unions ?
Look at what the US was building as a small car alternative to foreign imports..
after the Oil prices skyrocketed during our last Energy Crisis.. (1974)
Reagan Made America Great Again.
Detroit, Flint, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago…ALL cities under Democrat progressive mayors. Paragons of prosperity and safety!
I seem to remember that Clinton pushed Nafta and Obama the TPT.
NAFTA came out of the HW Bush Adm. Look it on Wikapedia
I seem to remember that too I remember BILL CLINTON SAYING …… N.A.F.T.A. WILL CREATE 300,000 HIGH PAYING JOBS IN THE FIRST MONTH AFTER ITS PASSED the reality is that we lost over 300,000 high paying jobs to mexico in 1 month and were still losing jobs to mexico…………….. yet according to Mike S. or Eagle495 depends what name he is using BILL CLINTON was forced to sign it by the evil republicans
Ross Perot’s “Great Sucking Sound” was what really happened.
Don’t rain on the Eagles parade. He will just contort some “facts” to fit his view. His viewpoint seems to be that there are no other factors involved except dimocrats control or repugs control. The system doesn’t operate in a vacuum and is dependent on which crook is pulling the lever. There are way too many variables involved to give credit/blame to one party. O think otherwise is delusional.
Geez Ron, the facts I gave you occurred during the past 100 years… How much proof do you need? Ever wonder why Income Inequity goes up during Conservative Administrations and down during Progressive Liberal Administrations? Are you part of the richest 3%?
Keeping the facts, Gingrich, A CFR member, pushed GATT and NAFTA. Rush was against the NAFTA until his handlers read him the RIOT Act and he flipped. The NAFTA vote passed by a single vote. It is not partisan but who belongs to the CFR.
We must return to a self sustaining economy and put import taxes on everything that can be made here.
We must return to Constitutional Gold and Silver with all paper noted redeemable in bullion.
charger john
John,
Both GATT and NAFTA came to being during periods when Conservative Congresses and under Conservative Administrations….. As we move into the next Liberal Progressive Cycle more and more jobs will return to America and the 97% will do better….. Think of 2009 as 1932 and it becomes clearer… That cycle lasted about 50 years, until the voters who had not lived through the last Depression, forgot the lessons from their Grandparents and let the Conservatives back into government… :(
Please don’t confuse Conservative with Progressive GOP.
There never has been and never will be a “Progressive GOP” when the majority of their donations come from the 3%……
And I guess George Sorass is poor, as is Suckerberg and the rest of Hollywood elite? Ha, ha, wrong again.
john
There isn’t enough bullion to cover the printed paper. What do you think will happen when everyone works that out?
Hi Mike
It seems the Japanese solution is to create negative interest rates to pinch money out of their citizens accounts and pay down debt. Maybe some of those resources looking for a safe home may find their way into our markets.
There is nothing to keep American politicians from copying the stupidity of Japanese and European politicians. Anything to promote their drea… err, nightmares.
Wouldn’t be surprised. Almost nothing surprises me these days Chuck.
Chuck,
Remember what the tax rates were on the wealthy before Reagan gave them a HUGE tax Break in 1981?… Remember “Trickle Down Economics” that was horse crap and never occurred? Imagine how small our deficit would be now if those tax cuts had not gone into effect, GATT and NAFTA had not been brought and Glass-Steagall had not been removed?
But, then again, that was the last Conservative Cycle which began in 1981 and ended with another Stock Market Crash and Depression in 2009, just like 1932…. Most Conservative Cycles last on an average 30 years and end with a Crash and Depression….. This last one lasted 28 years…
I thought you mentioned only your savior OBAMA could have got us out of the mess that bush created according to you so here we are soon to be 19 trillion in debt and counting and here we are in the same mess after 6 1/2 yrs of hearing anything that didn’t go good for Obama blaming it on George bush Barack Obama is such a whiny liberal it just shows the mentality of Obama and the people like Eagle495 who voted for him always saying ITS BUSHS FAULT
What hasn’t been mentioned is the debt. Both parties spend money to satisfy the wants and needs of an ever increasing population. A country that borrows 40 cents of every dollar it spends is broke. Politicians have become very good builders of this house of cards. It is time that both parties admit they are both culpable in the financial destruction of this nation. I could labor on about these things but as Paul Simon says: “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest”.
Lyle
It is for these reasons and many others that ordinary folk are fed up with both sides of politics.
I agree lyle but in eagle495 someone has to set him straight see he lives in a twisted and warped world he views fiction as fact
Lyle,
If you know how to read a chart, find the charts of both Governmental and private that show the total U.S. Debt level during each Presidential Administration….. What that will show you is that the debt level went very steeply UP during Reagan, H.W. Bush and Cheney/bush Administrations… The ONLY time during this Conservative cycle 1981-2009) that the debt levels did not climb where during the Bill Clinton Administration…
In the last 100 years there have only been two times that debt went steeply up under Democrats during peacetime. Those were during the administrations of FDR and Obama as they tried to save the country and the economy from the Stock Market Crashes of Conservatives Hoover (1929) and Cheney/bush (2007)…
Wht, Right Wing Radio failed to mentin those fats? How unusual, aye?… :(
OK, “Eagle” forgets… one BIG point. It was not liberalism that pulled U.S.A. out of the depression. It was the stupid World War II. Also since they declassify historical information, it is FACT that Roosevelt ordered the Secretary of Defense to not warn Peal Harbor that the Australian Navy had sited the Imperial Japanese Navy Armada sailing for Pearl!!!. The blood and suffering of those men are on the hands of idolized communist Roosevelt. He is personally responsible for that slaughter….
I plan to ignore Eagle. That guy like all left wingers, selectively refers to history, to erroneously prove a weak position. An contrary to everyone…. I have never support “free” trade with any country. In the late 50’s I predicted it would destroy middle working class people….I was correct. Liberal college professors were champions of “free trade.” That is a FACT Mr. Eagle. But I digress.
On a more important note. Why should we cry alligator tears for someone who purchases a NY City condo for 20 million and now cannot flip it for 60 million? !! Get real people !! Talk about welfare for the super top 1%. If they purchased those buildings on variable interest rates, that is their problem, not society’s problem. Most are purchased with CASH, those people stole from retail investors. Do you really think THEY have lost a penny in these market declines? Those NY City real estate transactions create few if any meaningful employment for working class people in NY City or any city. If they go BUST so what? Convert them to affordable apartments for the working class.
and the one big reason why we got out of the second depression caused during a democrat FDR FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT yes it was our getting involved in WW2 but it was also the fact that all the gold bullion from france , England , and other countries got shipped here for safekeeping from the germans we in turn used that gold to pay for the manufacture of ships planes bombers tanks so in essence we stripped the countries of their gold and used it to manufacture armies to attack Germany and later when we won over Germany we took their gold for safekeeping
and I forgot to mention this after world war 2 the world was a mess all the industrialized nations of the world were destroyed EXCEPT ONE the UNITED STATES and the world needed everything from coal to iron to lumber to manufactured goods to food and yes we produced it all
and for the longest time the united states prospered and because of that the united states became a creditor nation and we were able to police the world but now the world is rebuilt even the 3rd world nations and now because of the reckless spending of mostly the democrats we have now become a debtor nation facing a 19 trillion dollars national debt and over 100 trillion dollars in unfunded liabiliites
Geez, Hawk, you can hardly spell correctly……. Since you keep coming up with your own history and no numbers and facts to back it up. let me bring you back to reality by telling you that our Grandparents, so loved FDR, that they elected him more than any other President in American history….. As a matter of fact, he was the one that set the two term limit….. Do you really think our Grandparents where such dimwits? Or perhaps, it is you that is the dimwit, aye?
Let me see: Are you a white, under educated, non veteran who is pissed off because of “civil rights” because it got in the way of what you thought was your “entitlement”.?…. You do know that Union job you were hoping for went away thanks to the Conservatives you have been duped into to believing, don’t you? Geeeeazz… :(
Ivano,
Which Majority Congresses sponsored the trade legislation known as GATT and NAFTA that sent millions of good Middle Class Jobs overseas? Hint: It was NOT the Progressive Liberals who have generally supported the Unions and other Workers organizations…
Your absolutely correct Mike and the collapse in RE is just a Round the corner.
New shykscrapers and no real income to support the projects is a disaster for the dumb money.
Residential will crash due to global / local recessions, baby boomers and no credit.
A Detroit reality on a national / global level.
Thanks for your comments Eagle. You would think by listening to the radical radio that this country is run by the 3% at the top for our own good. LOL I thought at the time Raygun and Bush were elected that it would turn out bad. But I must say that it turned out to be worse than I thought it would in both cases.
Fred,
You might find it interesting to look up the ownership of Clear Channel radio, the media corporation that owns most of the Right Wing Radio Stations… What was the name of the Hedge Fund that Mitt Romney ran? Was it Bain Capital? There used to be laws that kept the Ultra Wealthy from dominating the media in different broadcast areas…. Reagan quietly removed those laws with a series of Executive Orders…..
Quero contratar 12gerente, que fale o inglês e 4 enterprete. Que traduz o inglês para o português, pra trabalhar em roca sales na caixa econômica federal, e ser despedido os corruptos. E me depositem nessa conta Agência: 1727 Operação: 013 Conta:00025222-8 valor$987 bilhões de dólares americano, por semana e o restante dos montantes deixar depositado na minhas contas Nelson Nunes, Welcome twitter e fiscalize os gerentes de confiança vindo direto dos estados unidos. E vão morar no rio grande do sul juntos com suas famÃlias em suas novas casas que vai ser pago a suas escolhas e mais o dobro do salario que ganham nos estados unidos em dólares americano, e comissão compatÃvel com suas funções de trabalhos. E após terem feito tudo isto me mandem uma mensagem pro meu celular Fone:05198100119 e também me mande os comprovantes pro meu twitter, Nelson Nunes welcome. Também contratar seguranças particulares no minimo, 5 pra cada famÃlia, os melhores dos estados unidos que podem contratar. Decretado assinado: P.S.Nelson Nunes U.S. Ordem Global contra a corrupção, e prisão dos corruptos sem fiança não asseito corrupção na área financeira.
Why is it so hard to do the right thing & so easy to do the wrong thing when it comes to protecting your investments. Six months ago I put my life’s savings in REIT’s , than I remember how you guys saved my hide back in 06. So here I am ready to retire in a bad position that I am stuck in for another five years.Get out now or wait what to do !