Just how healthy IS the U.S. economy?
Market Roundup
Some officials and economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, point to relatively healthy job growth as an indicator of strength. That’s why Janet Yellen & Co. chose to stand rather than panic yesterday, and left the door open to future rate hikes despite recent market turmoil.
Others take a completely opposite tack, saying the risk of recession is rising fast. The junk bond market is signaling a greater than 40% chance of a contraction, according to a recent Bloomberg story. Some Wall Street economists peg the risk at a still-elevated, but less-certain 20%.
That’s where today’s durable goods figures come in. They weren’t just weak. They were putrid. Overall orders plunged 5.1% in December, the most in 16 months and far worse than the 0.7% decline predicted by economists.
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| Orders for durable goods tanked in December. |
A key measure of core business spending — non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft — tanked 4.3%. Economists were looking for a drop of only 0.2%. The year-over-year decline was the worst going all the way back to 2009, when the economy was last emerging from recession.
The blame lies with a number of factors — the strong dollar, weak overseas demand for U.S. goods, the meltdown in energy spending, soaring inventories that need to be whittled down, and more. But the result is clear: Economic growth estimates are falling fast.
As a matter of fact, the “GDPNow” model put together by the Atlanta Fed is now estimating fourth-quarter growth of only 1%. That’s far below the mid-2% range expected as recently as November. Some economists warned after today’s numbers came out that the U.S. might not have grown at all in late 2015.
| “Some economists warned that the U.S. might not have grown at all in late 2015.” |
Personally, I think this is just the latest worrisome signal in a long list of them. It doesn’t bode well for large manufacturing firms, nor does it suggest corporate executives are confident in future growth. So keep that in mind when deciding whether to ramp up … or dial back … the risk level in your own portfolio. You know which approach I advocate.
Now, it’s your turn to weigh in. Are you worried about the signal from this durable goods report? Or are you encouraged by the recent jobs figures? Do you think we can ride out a manufacturing downturn thanks to strength in services and other sectors of our economy? Or are we tumbling toward recession? Let me hear about it in the comment section below.
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The latest, greatest Federal Reserve meeting is now behind us — but you had plenty of important things to say about Janet Yellen’s comments yesterday, as well as the Fed’s impact on markets overall.
Reader Frebon said: “It seems that ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ has no merit anymore. They seem clueless and don’t have any more bullets in their arsenal. That goes for Europe as well. It seems we are on a slippery slope, and perhaps the only way out is for the central banks to get out of the way and let rates normalize so Capitalism can prevail.”
Reader Gordon added: “The thing that really surprised me in the latest Fedspeak is that the Fed made no effort to ‘talk down’ the strong dollar. She is still enticing rich people from other countries to buy the dollar or export them into the U.S.
“Does she think the inflow of foreign money into dollars or American stocks will maybe prop up a sick stock market due to poor earnings by American companies, and also stuff some of the financial holes in the Good Ship America? By sucking up so much foreign currency into the U.S., it destabilizes other countries — but then we now live in a global community where in reality, it’s still every country for itself.”
Reader D.D. said: “It’s simply absurd that the Fed needs to constantly monitor markets because of a 25-basis-point increase. If our economy can’t sustain because of nonexistent rates, we are in huge trouble. Fact is, the Fed created massive dislocations of capital over the past six years, and now they have live with rebalancing volatility.”
When it comes to the Fed influencing (or not being able to influence) the economy, Reader Greg S. said: “In my Ph.D. program, I was taught about Phillips IS-LM curves. Monetary policy can’t stimulate an economy, so even this pearl of wisdom from politicians is a lie. Janet is shooting blanks. The best the Fed can do won’t help now.”
And finally, Reader J.L. offered this warning — Fed or no Fed: “World economies have never had more debts than right now in their entire histories. That can’t possibly be good. Governments can kick the can down the road only so far. At some point, the stuff will hit the proverbial fan. I believe that time is approaching, though I hope I am wrong.”
I appreciate all the comments. My firm belief is that central banks have lost control of asset prices because investors now have solid, concrete proof that QE, negative interest rates, and other CB policies don’t work. If they were effective in fighting off the global economic downturn, we wouldn’t need more and more rounds of them every few months.
Now, we’re also getting more and more evidence the U.S. economy is catching the global flu. That’s a recipe for stock market pain, and a key reason why I continue to recommend a very cautious investing approach.
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Will Apple (AAPL) be forced to go “down market” in a bid to recharge smartphone growth? That’s the focus of this Wall Street Journal story, which discusses the benefits and drawbacks of that approach. The company has long been known for focusing only on the high end of the market. Its iPhones sold for an average price of $691 in the most recent quarter.
Facebook (FB) investors sure “liked” what they heard from the company late yesterday. The social-networking firm’s fourth-quarter earnings surged to $1.56 billion, or 79 cents per share excluding items. That handily beat estimates of 68 cents, as did sales of $5.84 billion.
Marketers are spending like mad to get in front of customers using mobile devices to access Facebook and Instagram. The company is also pushing more aggressively overseas.
I continue to read stories with vague rumors that OPEC and non-OPEC nations will get together, sing “Kumbaya,” and cut oil production to prop up prices. Oil prices staged a rally earlier today on the back of those rumors.
But the New York Times had a lengthy piece today about the Saudi strategy, and suggested the Middle-Eastern nation has no plans to cut production because it would end up just ceding market share to other countries. So be careful chasing bounces here.
The Bank of Japan will be the last major world central bank to weigh in on policy plans tomorrow. It’s unclear if it will launch even more QE, or start buying new kinds of assets — even though none of the past rounds has accomplished anything useful.
But one major threat to the “Abenomics” policies in Japan emerged overnight. Economy minister Akira Amari resigned amid allegations that he accepted bribes, potentially putting more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s regime and reform plans.
So what do you think of Facebook’s strong results, or a possible move by Apple to produce lower-end phones? How about Saudi Arabia’s ongoing resistance to production cuts? And do you think the BOJ will have any more success than the European Central Bank or U.S. Federal Reserve in propping up markets or the economy with QE? Share your thoughts below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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The continued availability of free money appears to assume that in a low or no-growth environment that there are wothwhile investments available with an internal rate of return, hopefully, somewhere above zero. How much mal-investment of this sort can the world continue to absorb? I lack confidence that the world print-fest can be unwound without years of damage. John
It is now an election year. That means anything could happen. The departing president wants all things to look great before he leaves office. He can order the Fed Res Bank to do anything he wants them to do at risk of getting their pink slip. A deal may have already been cut with Hillary for after the election. I believe Obama once said that the U.S. would always pay its bills; all we have to do is print more money. When I took Econ 101, if I would have said something like that, I would have been tarred and feathered and banished to South Dakota.
james the only time you can “tar and feather them” is at election time but where would you start? Which of these “turkeys” would you tar and feather and which one would you choose to run the country. Like so many times in life james we are at a critical crossroads. Going straight throw means to continue on the present path going nowhere. We have in the past turned right and left and well they are both dead ends full of dead heads. The history books are full of these “turkeys” They are praised and reviled at the same time. If over the years these “turkeys” had really done a good job for which history praises them why are we in such a soup today. They the “turkeys” of the past took their paychecks took their bows and walked off of the world stage thinking in their convoluted brain that they had really contributed something to society. When I watch the present GOP offering bantering like little children on the stage I think “Oh God nothing is changing” just more future deadheads.
Durable goods: When purses are light, we may be tempted by the latest model, but we can probably make do with what we have. Consumables, however are needed to survive and function in society, and we put our scarce bucks into these first. So the decline in durable goods tells us that things are getting a bit tight for people and companies alike. Things aren’t perhaps critical yet, but individuals and purchasing managers are worrying a little. It means slower growth in the economy at least, and perhaps hints at something more down the line. Investors might want to look at the balance of durables and consumables in their portfolios, at least.
Hey Chuck
Looks like P&G is doing OK. I am amazed when reading the Durable goods report and the non defense capital goods that the estimates by so called economists and the actual numbers were so so far apart. What about the rest of the so called “numbers” we are hearing? Are you sophisticated investors basing your investing program on what these jokers are telling you? If you are you could be in real trouble. These spin doctors are there to talk up the economy not tell the truth. You cannot handle the truth. Quote from a Jack Nicholson movie.
Mike – don’t you agree with Larry Edelson’s prediction that the dow will go to 31,000 in 2017?
Jeth,never believe what is written or told,listen to your mother and charts
The Fed had little to say because there is little they can do, but watch the mess central banks have made unwind. It only took 100 years for the central bank to steal all the wealth…
Mike…..I get a kick out of your style of writing. This one made me laugh right out loud. Thanks for the chuckle…….
OPEC and non-OPEC nations will get together, sing “Kumbaya,†and cut oil production….lol
Greg
It will never happen because as soon as they do other non participating producers will ramp up production and ride on their coat tails. On the other hand what is the sense of giving away a non renewable resource. Russia seems to be testing the waters to join OPEC but the gain will be short lived before the pain of over production set in again. Common sense has been replaced by greed even as oil will be obsolete in years to come much as coal is today. Coal producers are looking for a government handout but Obama hates coal so no handout. Goodbye coal jobs and hello coal bonds that cannot be repaid and coal stocks soon to be worthless. The big coal operations are all heading for debtors court. Anyone out there holding stocks or bonds in coal companies? You have my sympathies. Its a fast changing world today companies can be winners and tomorrow losers so who do you trust with your money?
it’s not the jobs report that encourages me, mike. it’s the spike in the m2 money supply that encourages me. this is basically and act of the fed putting their foot on the accelerator. i’ve watched the fed do this time and time again and it’s like a trump card that overrides the fundamentals. we’ll see what happens. i’m actually like you in that the fundamentals look like crap.
The spike in the m2 is just the fix financial druggies are looking for along with the Feds foot on the accelerator but wait we have tried this in the past and the car just spun its wheels. Before trusting the Fed you might want to consider investing in a Ouija board your chances are far better. The Fed is not your friend they serve a higher master. If lucky you will get taken along for the ride or just plainly taken for a ride.
what makes you think it just spins its wheels?
The economic numbers are corrupted by junk, the biggest being the monthly jobs numbers.
The numbers (the set based on the establishment survey, not the household survey) are corrected by seasonal adjustments and the birth-death model. The numbers from the last three years have become dominated by the birth-death adjustment, the adjustment to estimate small and medium-sized business hiring. Some months, the reported number is almost all birth-death adjustment. Given the official GDP numbers, which themselves have been inflated, many of these jobs numbers are absurdly inflated and cannot be right. We’ll see the real numbers in a few years, when census and other data will be used to derive the final revised estimates for trailing years.
The GDP final revisions for 2013-14 are already coming in, with significant downward adjustments. Attempts to get independent jobs numbers based on tax withholding (see Charles Biderman) yield much more reasonable monthly numbers in the 100K-200K for good months, and less than 100K for bad.
Once this cycle ends, the phony jobs numbers will be another scandal, like the distorted housing numbers reported during the 2002-7 housing boom. The NAHB, the NAR, Fannie and Freddie, and the Fed all later essentially admitted this, a development that never got enough attention.
Response to Mike’s article: As usual, we have received a nice report from Mike on recent developments in the economy. However there is a potential for mis-interpretation of the durable goods order that it’s important to be aware of. The numbers reported were clearly not good. But they are a monthly number (this time it was Dec. 2015) and that is not a very long period of time over which to judge economic activity – especially in the product sectors of the economy. Orders made by businesses fluctuate all the time so you have to look at more than a one month window to see what the trend is. While I would not be surprised if that trend isn’t too wonderful I would not assume that the sky is falling because of one month’s reported data.
The part that accompanies that is something Mike referred to, inventories. The actual number that reflects economic activity is not orders – but rather sales. And when sales are generally slow (which I expect they have been) inventories can rise. But since inventories is like a “buffer tank” between manufacturing and consumption build ups (or downs) in inventories can mask what’s really going on in sales – the measure that counts and is reflected in GDP. So a drop off of orders in December might just as well represent a ripple effect of slower than anticipated sales during the fall of that year – and may not really reflect some kind of big change in the economy that just happened to “hit us” in December. And I strongly suspect that is the case – that December durable goods orders backpedalled mostly because most businesses today know that high inventory levels are to be avoided. So cutting orders down to drain some of that off is a logical step to expect. And that might show up as a big slow down at one time but it probably really reflects something that’s been taking place over a much longer period of time. And since this report occurred at the 2015 year, just as annual inventories are being counted, I’m not the least bit surprised to see the “air take out” of the system in that particular month of the year.
So what does that all mean? To me it means that the fall of durable goods orders in Dec. 2015 is probably a symptom of slowness in preceding months – not a sudden collapse in the economy. And since only around 25% of the US economy is based on products in the first place, I would not use a slowdown in tangible product orders as a measure of the entire US economy. Even if things are slow in manufacturing (and I bet they are) there is a lot of other business taking place in the service sectors, which are three times the size of US manufacturing.
John
Note that in the above piece when I say “sales” I mean sales to the end user.
Thx John
John
Could you elaborate and name a few? Oh yes consumer debt is expanding pardon me for asking.
It would be nice if we went back to a self substaining domestic economy, the example reverts back to right after world war 2 the usa made about most everything, from toys to tvs. It seemed like we had the best of everything for the American consumer, of course we had the gold standard too.
Given today’s situation with our domestic oil production, we could tell OPEC to sell their oil to others, we can supply ourselves now.
Let us also remember that all these regulations and high capital gains and coporate taxes are also stifling the economy. How about this idea, the president meets with all the major corps. in our country, and make a deal, stating that if we bring rates down, in return they will get people back to full employment. Do this in increments so we can pick up steam, when companies start to show they are serious, we reward them.
Reply to John: It sounds to me as if you prefer the US economy as it was back in the 19th century. True there was a lot less gov’t involvement then (and there probably is too much now). But there was no middle class to speak of then and a vastly lower standard of living. Overall economic activity measured by GDP per capita was far lower than it is in modern times also.
As for your second statement – the purpose of business is not to employ people. It is to make money for business ownership and as a byproduct businesses benefit the entire economy by providing goods and services that people can afford and that increases the standard of living for all. And the purpose of gov’t – well that seems to be whatever the current elected officials want it to be. But while it’ soften said that things gov’t does is for the people – it frequently is for some other people than those stated.
Here in CT we just finished building a “busway” supposedly to help the poor get around our state. But at 61 million dollars a mile cost to build it probably was more of a favor done to the construction contractors that got to build it than citizens who will use it because it has very limited range. The truth is that it was a monumental waste of public money – but was supported by both Republican and Democratic administrations here in our state. The likely reason is the idea and the spending helped keep the politicians in power.
So I wouldn’t bet on politicians and gov’t getting together to jointly do anything. The foundation of a free market economy is the freedom of choice people (and businesses) have. That is unlikely to result in grand organization of the economy. We’ve already seen what happens to economies that are centrally planned – and I think it’s clear that the free market based approach provides much better results.
John H –
John H, I have to say that your comment is in the top 0.1% of those I’ve ever seen. You are a very wise man.
Headlines today, Facebook gained something like 15%, now worth 41 billion dollars, Suckerburg’s holdings worth about 6 billion. As if this was good news. Yet also this week, we learn GE sold off it’s appliance business to a China company, Hailer or some such. GE. Might as well sell off baseball and apple pie. I get no satisfaction from this uptick in the stock of Facebook. Facebook…..an idea by a looser to try to hookup with anybody that would have him. And that is good news?
What we are seeing for our future is Russia–Total control by a centralized government. At least during the last depression the USA was primarily isolationist. We were not squandering our wealth propping up sandbox dictatorships around the world and carrying the burden of a huge and growing national debt of 20 trillion dollars. We had sovereign borders and not open borders and were not importing hundreds of thousand of folks from Africa and muslim nations who have to be taught to use a toilet and who are probably going to fill the welfare rolls for the rest of their lives. They are bankrupting the local communities, schools and medical facilities .we have an imperial political class and a president who cost the taxpayers 1.4 Billion dollars last year for his royal life style. If the status quo continues–the USA is toast
Actually, we had open borders. There were towns where the Canadian border ran down the main street – eastbound traffic in the U.S. westbound in Canada, and people went and shopped freely back and forth. Mexican border a little tighter, but not much. Even in the 1970s, my ex and I vacationed several times in Canada, with nothing more than a driver’s license to pass us through customs, either way.
you got that right. we have to enforce our borders,our language, and our culture. otherwise, we are royally screwed.
Yes, these durable goods order numbers portend more deflation ahead. With China focusing inward on domestic consumerism, related global industries will suffer setbacks. Time for technological breakthroughs to stimulate home-grown manufacturing. Go, inventors!
Manufacturing in the US will pick up in the future. Costs in China are rising so the balance is starting to slowly tip towards some (not all) of that work being brought back home.
Hi Mike
We are only talking periodic 1/4 point increases. The banks can’t afford to increase rates too quickly because of the default risk on their outstanding loans. For them, what is the point of regular increases if it heightens the carry risk of their exposures.
Howard
Banks are not famous for their generosity. They will increase rates pass them on to the consumer. If it causes the house of cards to collapse so be it. They are in the money business not charity. If things fall apart like 2009 the taxpayer will always throw them a life preserver. Governments are even now working on ways that if you have over $100,000 in the bank they can come in and skim off some of the excess. Just another way to control how much money the working smuck has and if he has to much he can “help out” the bank failures due to their own greed. Its a Merry Go Round Howard and your not a participant only a spectator with a wallet.
I read an interesting article suggesting that one of the political motives behind zero interest rates was to discourage individuals from trying to fund their own retirements. Without the miracle of compounding it’s a lot more difficult. Again, this is just another attempt to make more people dependent on government and government sponsored retirement plans for their retirement needs. Government really doesn’t do anything well but we continue to become more reliant on them for our basic needs. Disappointment is the probable result. Dependency is the name of the game for the current politicos. It’s time for a real change. Jim
Couldn’t agree more Jim.
Current rates are forcing retirees into higher levels of risk, just to keep up. I don’t want a nanny state or be dependant on self focused Politian’s. I’ve made some mistakes and stuffed some things up. My biggest problem is keeping market place discipline. That said, picking market bottoms has always been hard for me as I plan an entry point and don’t realise the downside momentum is still going. I’m a little underwater at the moment but well positioned. Good luck to you Jim.
Howard, I’ve worked hard at this game for thirty years. I have averaged about five per cent a year. With hindsight I would have been just as well off collecting five per cent in the money market but that disappeared years ago. Maybe I’m just not that good at it or it’s real hard for the retail investor to succeed in the long run. I have made a lot and lost a lot. It was fun and interesting but collecting a decent rate of interest would have been the best course I think. Good luck to you sir, as well. Jim
The government wants to create a “special” retirement plan to which all will contribute and maybe even your existing 401K an IRA which amount to about 22 trillion dollars which of course would just nicely erase the government debt of 20 trillion and leave a little change left over for the government to waste. Its a government IOU. Good luck in collecting anything in the future. As Wimpy says can I have a hamburger today for which I will pay you tomorrow.
The gov’t has no idea how to create a worthwhile retirement plan. I present as evidence the one they just presented – which returns less than the rate of inflation. (duhhh). I believe however that the plan presented is not at IOU but an individual account based plan where your name is on it and you own it. That alone doesn’t make it a good idea, however.
Zero interest rates, and 2% inflation goals. Duh!!!
Time is what we have…use it wisely.
Rubit
I am truly glad that at 78 my time is running out. I need not worry about the government having no pension money to pay me, work a contract job with no future or benefits, global warming a battle we can never win, a robot who will replace me in the future, driverless cars smashing into each other because their internals have been hacked, a seriously declining infrastructure that we cannot afford to replace and that will soon due to old age (like me) collapse, saving for a retirement that will be worthless because of negative interest rates, going to war to make money for the armament industry, a planet so overpopulated we are drowning in our own feces, a world without Frank Sinatra, the great Bob Hope and Maureen O’Hara, shopping for an average 10 million dollar home while my pay check is shrinking and God my fingers are getting tired but you get the picture.
Mike writes useful and telling insight.
I stopped in Hardee’s the other morning about 7:30, only three Customers were in the building, normally I would have had to stand in line. Later that day I paid a visit to a local Hardware and plumbing store, one customer came out as I went in, no other customers was in the building, not finding what I was looking for, I went to the Walmart Supercenter, it too was deserted, at that point I was trying to figure out why so few people were shopping, then I realized it was near the end of the month and most welfare recipients had already spent their income. Democrats and Republicans don’t realize how bad they have hurt the average person, disposable income for most is a thing of the past, and it’s the major reason a candidate could shot someone in the streets and not lose any votes.
My wife and I went to Wal-Mart last night. Same show. Twenty check out lines and two checkers. You are right Thomas. Jim
Thomas…Yes!! Seems there’s always some month left at the end of the money for many of us, not only just those in the welfare line!!!
No inflation according to the prices of oil and gold, BUT packages at the grocery store keep getting smaller, along with the plastic bags to carry it home in, but the prices are either the same or higher than they used to be for the larger packages.
A raise at work?? The boss’ resounding answer is always “Be thankful you’ve got a job!!”
Further, “Obama-Care” is just a great big expensive nightmare!!! It’s sucking up much more than any savings that might be found at the gas pumps!
By the way, the last time oil was the price per barrel that it is now, gas was less than $1.00 per gallon!! Is it any wonder the average family is putting off buying a new refrigerator or washer and dryer? It’s alot cheaper to look on youtube and figure out how to replace that solenoid switch on the old fridge yourself!
Hark
In February it will be announced that consumer spending was up 2% for the month of January. Let the truth not be known.
Buy only what you need,save all you can,pay down your debts(try telling THAT to anyone in the Govt.),and do anything you can to prepare for the coming storm.May(whatever “God”,”Holy Entity”,or potential “alien rescue scenario”)you believe in save you!!
What would happen to our economic numbers once we replace workers with robots? Robots will soon take over vertical indoor farms for vegetable growing, more will be used in auto manufacturing, even bank tellers, food service and store clerks will be replaced, the list will go on once the concept becomes widely implemented. Costs would go way down, but unemployed workers wouldn’t be able to buy the goods even if they were subsidized by the Great US Debt & Welfare Society. Then there’s the problem with developed Nations where ageing demographics will hurt economic growth. With these forces at work I don’t see continuing never-ending growth ahead for at least 5 years. Then there’s the problem with continued growth after that with over 7 billion people already inhabiting and ravaging the planet. So I see many changes ahead for markets in their expectations of growth and stock market valuations.
Robots are already affecting the economy and society. Is it really so awful that a mechanical device does work that is physically or mentally unhealthy for humans? Who likes repetitive drudgery? They increase productivity dramatically and reduce costs. They free humans to do more rewarding and interesting tasks. Somebody has to build and service the robots. I bet there were people in the 1800s that said the Industrial Revolution would ruin our lives and economy. It ushered in a new age of prosperity and vastly raised standards of living. Progress is always frightening as it challenges the status quo, but I’m willing to bet our lives will feel better because of it. Jim
I share your long-term optimism for robots as we now know them. However, those freed to do more rewarding and interesting tasks are not the top of the Bell curve. It’s likely that vast numbers will need someone else to find a use for them in society. Why? We don’t let them legally work for themselves without overcoming a lot of obstacles (e.g. regulations… there are plenty of entrepreneurs outside our drug laws, but that’s a different story).
And what will we do with those who are rewarded by and interested in things society doesn’t value? Women who only want to be moms. Men who only want to play games. Of course there are many other non-stereotypical examples.
Right now, they settle for jobs that minimize effort – effort of finding the job, effort (physical or mental, sometimes both) of doing the job. Robots will eliminate those jobs, leaving society with a big issue.
Jean, you are correct. We are actually seeing more of that than we realize now. Some people will take advantage of the opportunities that Jim speaks of, but the majority of those out of work will have nothing better to do than breed like rabbits, outnumbering the productive members of society. Back in the 1950s and ’60s, Science Fiction was full of speculative stories about the possible outcomes of mechanization and roboticizing of the world. Some of those stories might teach us a bit about what can happen without planning. Planning, however, means central control, and that means dictatorship of some sort, with penalties as well as rewards. Alas!
The only long term solution for the US economy is the self sustaining model. Put a 20-30%
import duty on anything that can be made or obtained domestically. Abolish the Income Tax and sustain the Government from import duties and excise taxes as the Constitution says. Go back to a gold/silver standard. The US made everything superior to the world up to the 60’s when the trade agreements started to undermine our manufacturing. Thanks to NAFTA and GATT, pushed by CFR Gingrich and blessed by Puppet Rush, we kissed our manufacturing good by. Have you ever bought tools from China? Sockets, Drill bits, a generator? They suck! The clothes from china are crap as well. Would you trust pharma manufactured in fetid factories in RED China? And finally we need to close the boarders to get back on track. I want my power steering pump made by Americans in Saginaw! Start mining coal and get the mills humming!
Charger John
John, you hit the nail squarely on the head! All of us need to drive it right through the hearts of our witchy politicians. End the dictatorship of the POLITARIAT! Amend the Constitution to say, “No person shall serve more than one term in any elected office.” Get rid of career politicians who are mostly out to further their own careers.
The American stock market goes up yet again. Here is something you have to love from Microsoft it got a laugh out of me. They reported their earning as follows “earnings were lower than last year but higher than estimates” and the stock goes up and helps goose the stock market for Thursday as a whole. How can this negative be spun into a positive?
This clutching at straws proves to me that we still have a long way down.
The News makes me confused today. Am I missing something?
1. Japanese household spending drops 4.4%
2. Industrial production drops 1.4%
The Japanese stock market rallies almost 400 points today,hmm maybe because Japan just went to negative interest rates. Does this bode well after the fix wears off?
Thailand has a military government who just announced that the election may delayed further after announcing the day before that elections would take place in 2017??
The baht strengthens for the 3 rd day in a row and the SET stock market goes up 20 points for the 2nd day in a row
Deutche Bank reports a 7.4% BILLION dollar lose
Taiwan’s Q4 sinks by .28 more than had been predicted and the market goes up.
England delays the sale of the new revamped Lloyds bank. The market hardly moves sideways.
Amazon misses estimates and sells off sharply but the broader market advances over 200 points.
There is more negative news that reacts positively in the market another is my Microsoft posting above.
Signed- Stumped.
I’m a business owner of 30+_years, all right here in small-town Grants Pass, Oregon. I can tell you that since the financial panic of 2008-2009, economic conditions have not changed in any meaningful way. Our sales are still down, strip malls with empty store fronts remain so, and in conversations with fellow businessmen here, commercial activity, in general, is in recession. One minor bright spot is the return of home-building, albeit at vastly reduced levels. All this, I might add, is in the state which is the favorite of Americans moving from elsewhere. I find it impossible to invest, say, in the stock market, and feel at ease, leave my money in good companies for the long haul and watch my account grow. I must now be very selective and have a much shorter-term focus. Volatility and ‘surprise’ market events with very profound impact are now a very real threat to occur at any time. So it seems that old market axioms and methods may NOT provide a clear path for market action in these days and times. I must be ever vigilant and never complacent. Warren
” A peek under the hood of three new cars from Volvo, Buick and Cadillac will not reveal a Made in China label. But those cars are breaking new ground in the auto industry, becoming the first to be manufactured in the People’s Republic of China and exported to the United States”. … I copied this blurb from another financial website. … Lets see, we bailed out G.M. to save U.S. jobs at the tune of 30Billion taxpayer dollars, and what we got in return was their outsourcing of their top brand ( Buick and Cadillac) to China. Next will be Chevrolet and GMC. … Perhaps we should have allowed G.M. to go under or at minimum let them fend for themselves through in place and demonstrated capable bankruptcy proceedings.
Didn’t realize an iPhone was nearly $700. No wonder I don’t own one.
Re: Turkeys (I recently read this in our local paper)
On Jan 26 1784, in a letter to his daughter Sarah, Benjamin Franklin expressed
unhappiness over the choice of the bald eagle as the symbol of America, and stated his
own preference: the turkey.
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Maybe it’s past time a change might be appropriate. (?)
I just had an epiphany: Is Saudi Arabia trying to desperately sell as much of it’s oil reserves as possible before the demand dries up completely? In other words, is the demand for oil going to take a sudden and severe plunge? Will everyone’s reserves end up being abandend as worthless some time in the future? This could be just one of the outcomes of autonomous cars (and trucks)!! I think they will all be electric and the ultimate source of this power will not be petrolium based!