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Fair warning: The analysis I provide today on the chances of a Trump victory in November will probably leave you shell-shocked, tickled pink or with some sweet-and-sour mix of both.
I will name eight inescapable facts that political pundits from both parties are underestimating or missing entirely.
I will show you how the presidential election campaign and the stock market could soon be feeding off each other in a vicious spiral.
And I will tell you how to prepare for virtually any outcome in November.
The key: No matter which camp you’re in, you should know that I’m tackling this topic objectively and unemotionally.
Like most readers, I’m an American citizen with deep fears and high hopes for America. Like many, I could also let those emotions cloud my vision.
But when it comes to my hard-earned money, and when that money is vulnerable to history-breaking landmark political events, I stick with the facts and only the facts.
What you want is not always what you get. And what you think should happen must never influence your judgment of what could happen. That’s how I approach this election madness. And that’s how you should too.
So here are eight inescapable facts that could make all the difference in the world in 2016 …
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1. Trump has momentum.
Since the first day he jumped into the race, Trump’s poll numbers have been rising virtually nonstop.
Last year, months before the first primaries, his support level leaped from last in the pack (at 4.5% on May 28, 2015) to top dog (at 22.5% on August 3).
In the Republican primaries, as competing candidates dropped off like flies, his percentage of votes jumped from 24% in Iowa on February 1 to 66% in Oregon last Tuesday.
And in a head-to-head match with Hillary Clinton, after trailing by double digits, the recent data shows they’re already locked in a tight, volatile battle. In fact, the very latest poll from Fox News now gives Trump a 3-point lead.
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2. Trump naysayers have been dead wrong.
Nate Silver, a disciplined political prognosticator that I respect, gave Trump a meager 5% chance of capturing the Republican nomination, saying he would peak early and "flame out" quickly.
Both Democratic- and Republican-leaning pundits for The New York Times, NBC News, Fox News and every major media outlet unanimously voiced similar opinions.
And today, most pundits are making the same arguments with the same tools. Nate Silver still gives Trump only a 25% chance of winning the White House. Sports betting site Paddy Power gives him 33% odds. And most say he’s still a long shot.
They may be right; Clinton has lots of advantages in the electoral map and in the country’s demographics.
But the pundits admit they were wrong before. And yet most don’t want to change their methodology.
3. Trump’s event risk is low.
Can you think of a new Black Swan event that could suddenly knock Trump for a loop? I can’t.
The barrage of attacks — from the media, from Democrats, and from the Republican establishment itself — has already been so intense, it may have vaccinated Trump against future hits, including those coming from the Clinton campaign and Super PACs.
Sure, Clinton’s got all the anti-Trump research on a platter, left over from the Republican primaries. But that steers her to mostly old, recycled, material that’s already been posted on social media, seen widely on TV, and absorbed by the political marketplace.
Like a stock price that already reflects the bad earnings news, Trump’s current poll numbers already reflect most of his political weaknesses.
Meanwhile, Trump himself has already shot himself in the foot a few times without any lasting damage. So it’s hard to imagine any future self-inflicted wounds that could make a big difference.
In contrast, Clinton’s event risk is high, with most of her bad news still pending …
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4. The FBI investigation into the Clinton emails hangs over her campaign like the Sword of Damocles.
FBI Director James Comey, who’s personally overseeing the investigation, says he doesn’t "give a spit" about the political calendar, and nor does his professional staff.
This means that, if there’s going to be a Justice Department indictment against her, it could strike before she’s nominated as the Democratic candidate, a big disaster for the Democrats. Or it could happen after she’s nominated, an even bigger disaster for the Democrats.
5. Terrorist attacks also play right into Trump’s hands.
And they don’t have to be domestic. Events like last Thursday’s downing of Egypt Air Flight 804 are enough to continue fueling Trump’s anti-ISIS, illegal-immigration narrative. This alone transforms Larry Edelson’s large body of work on rising war cycles into a political thesis of special importance.
6. The U.S. economy has flatlined like an EKG without a heartbeat.
If this malaise continues or worsens, it’s Clinton who takes the rap.
Reason: Early in the campaign, her advisers assumed she could chalk up points by associating herself with the Obama-led recovery. But they grossly underestimated the discontent and anger of millions of voters left out of that recovery.
Worse, they apparently figured the economy would continue on a growth path at least until November. But now, that assumption may also be questionable. (See Mike Larson’s recent columns on the reeling retailers, the stock buyback bubble, and job market warning signs.)
7. The stock market could be an even bigger risk for Clinton than the economy.
Reason: If the Dow falls, there’s no room for interpretation. The voting public — and the campaign donors that count — will promptly see it as a warning sign of another 2008-type crisis. And even if 2008 has receded from memory, Trump will likely do his best to remind them.
8. Black Swan events are likely.
Specifically, don’t forget the Black Swans I told you about on May 2:
A collapse of the Fed’s QE bubble.
Chaos in China.
Even nuclear terror.
And we’re already witnessing a major plunge in U.S. capital expenditures.
But what’s most ironic is that Trump himself is considered a Black Swan. He’s anti-Establishment. So Wall Street big hitters, fearing that a President Trump will upset the established order, are already taking protective action as his prospects rise.
Here’s the irony: The more Trump gains, the more they’ll sell. And since Trump benefits from a stock market decline, the more they sell, the more likely he is to prevail in November.
Maybe this is one of the reasons that three of Trump’s fellow billionaires are already starting to warn of a major stock market disaster, exit the market or even go short:
Carl Icahn, with an estimated net worth of $20 billion, has a net short position in the market of 149% — a large leveraged bet on a stock market plunge. (See Mike Larson’s recent column What Do the Billionaires Know that the Fed and YOU Don’t?)
Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital, with a net worth of at least $4 billion, recently told investors to "get out of the stock market" and switch to gold.
And most recently, billionaire George Soros disclosed that his fund management company owns put options on 2.1 million shares of an S&P 500 index fund, more than double the position he had in the fourth quarter. In other words, he’s betting big that the S&P 500 will crash. (See Another Billionaire Bets on Stock Market Bedlam … Should You?)
No matter who wins, my advice is unchanged …
Whether Trump sinks or soars, and whether Trump-fearing investors are right or wrong, my advice was already focused on risk protection. So adding political risk to the pot doesn’t change the recipe:
- Build a big hoard of unencumbered, uninvested cash. I don’t care if your net yield is zero, even less than zero. I don’t care how many so-called "experts" say "cash is crazy." Cash is your treasure chest for bargain hunting if political instability and economic disaster collide like two ships in the night.
- When you buy, focus strictly on cream-of-the-crop companies — those with stellar earnings and pristine balance sheets. To withstand the pressures ahead, they’ll need both.
- Hedge! Reconsider the dangers I outline in Worse than 2008? and continue to follow my prescriptions in My 7-Step Portfolio Protection Strategy.
Then pray that the worst will not happen.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
{ 119 comments }
We still thinks it would be great to have First Lady president at the White House
Let’s give Hillary a chance and forget all the past errors Goodness we all thru life
Has made errors and oops I shouldn’t have but then we All have learned too
And it is like Fall down. Brush self off and carry on
Then we have Trump. And his bad rude remarks and bad language too come on
No way would want him as our president Lots to ponder on and really wonder
About too
Trump is an American and proud of it. That’s more than I can say for the the community organizer who is now running the show.
Yes it would be great to have a First Lady president but not Hillary. She has committed too many felonious acts and is involved in too many real scandals to be president. I have worked for 33 years in the Defense Industry handling hundreds of National Security documents, and Hillary’s mishandling of highly classified documents eliminates her for any government position. In fact she and her staff should not have had a security clearance in public life. Do you really understand her fatal handling of foreign policy and disregard for security allowing simple hacking by the enemy.
Someone should warn the women who support her, that very few will be involved in democratic socialist society. The unwed mothers on welfare, the grade school dropouts, the college dropouts and even the graduates with no political experience; will find no place but communes that will result as socialist run out of funds. (see Venezuela happening before your very eyes if you open them).
SLI please read Alan’s comment. There’s still time for YOU!! If Hillary is elected we all can kiss our future good bye.
Got That right she would be the biggest disaster ever , really just a 3rd term of failed Obama policies. I don’t think as great a country as we have ,If she is elected the America we know a love will cease to exist. People wake up do we really want to become a socialist country? NO! I want my grand children to enjoy the freedom and opportunities I have had. Our founding fathers had it right “Give me liberty are give me death!”
She’s had everything handed to her. She didn’t live in New York, but decided to run for Senate there, why? Because Arkansas won’t elect her. She’s ahead in the primary, only because of the old guard oligarchy in the party. She represent the past and turmoil. Mr Trump offers us something better; A future, if we are willing to work for it.
Sorry, Hillary is the last thing this country or for that matter the world needs. I’m tired of presidents that refuse to be a president of an entire country. One should honor the position by being everyone president. Sometimes, telling your own party “NO” is the right thing to do.
You have got to be kidding? Give her a chance? She had a chance–several of them and blew them all, especially the 3 am call on Benghazi. Her corruption, violation of national security rules, and general platform are all reasons not to give her a chance. She has made errors mistakes and I don’t want to give her a chance to make bigger ones that impact my family.
No thank you.
If you want a Socialist as President, vote for Hillary. Some of her past comments:
“We’re going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good.” 6/29/2004
“It’s time for a new beginning, for an end to government of the few, by the few, and for the few… And to replace it with shared responsibility, for shared prosperity.” 5/29/2007
“(We)…. Can’t just let business as usual go on, and that means something has to be taken away from some people.” 6/4/2007
“We have to build a political consensus and that requires people to give up a little bit of their own … In order to create this common ground.” 6/4/2007
“I certainly think the free-market has failed.” 6/4/2007
“I think it’s time to send a clear message to what has become the most profitable sector in (the) entire economy that they are being watched.” 9/2/2005
What are your smoking? Give thieves and robbers like the Clintons….” a chance”..?…The Clintons have been robbing the US blind since the White Water Scandal that entered the White House when the Clintons arrives. After spending $20 million……the US gov’t dropped the investigation of the Clintons. Then we had the scandals of Bill…” I did not have sex with that woman” Clinton. He lied to investigators until Monica Lewinski produced Bills dna on her dress….We have ” Clinton Cash”…..have you read it?…..The Clintons have past examples of having no moral compass and their continued selling of political patronage via the Clinton Foundation makes them suspect. Let us not forget Secretary Clintons ” email gate” scandal…which I am sure will be sand bagged like the White Water investigation. Give them a chance?….What planet are you from….or are you a Clinton Foundation stooge????
You must be kidding. Are you one of our citizens that flunked out of grammar school and support Hillary ??
What an absolutely ridiculous way to pick a president. Our presidents are not “all-powerful”, but as we’ve seen over the last 8 years, a lousy one can sure wreck an already-reeling economy, and we can’t take a chance on that just to have a “Lady President”.
A comic once said, “That’s no lady, that’s my wife!”
Well, Hillary may be female, but she’s no lady, in any sense of the word.
We are definitely in a “lesser of evils” situation, but there is just no getting around the fact that Hillary would continue (and make worse) most of what B.O. has done to our country. And God help us for a generation (or more) if she got to pick maybe several Supreme Court justices who think like she does.
I’m for a lady president, but Hillary. No way, She is a cheat & a liar. If she wins, God help this country. I am a registered Democrat & a woman but this year it will be Trump for me.
it has been said hiillary uses profanity when cameras are not on her, particularly with her secret service detail.
Hi Martin
For decades now we have had Politian’s from both sides trying to manage the economy. Usually candidates who are party protected and whose ability is compromised by the interests of others. Rarely do we have candidates who don’t need the job. I could list some but comparisons can become odious, suffice to say that Mr Trump has a growing and popular following. Does he have the nations best interests at heart? I believe so. Can he do economic harm? No more than has been done already. Can he fix the debt? Not without some pain. Will he break some promises? I expect so. Will entitlement suffer? I hope so. A road to recovery is not without some bumps, but with a strong team he may well be better than the alternative.
The big thing against Mrs Clinton is seven years of mediocre activity to influence positive change. She is part of the problem. Does this country want four more years of can kicking debt and a deteriorating economic management?
Howard, you hit the nail on the head. We’re way better off with Trump.
“very latest poll from Fox News now gives Trump a 3-point lead.” You’re kidding right? FOX news the most dishonest agenda driven of all news agencies?
Truth has no agenda, but it may look like it does if one has been brainwashed by the totally controlled, politically correct drive-by media (NBC, CBS, ABC)
Right on the money!!!!! Fox, unfair,unbalanced and unbelievable. Anyone who puts any credibility into a fox pole has mush for brains.
God help us if Trump doesn’t win…Hillery hates our military and is a crook…pass it on!!!
She also thinks Americans should not have the right to defend themselves other than to just call 911.
Trump is the only one that can save the USA – and probably the West in general. The Clintons are both Bilderbergers who are desperate to implement the New World Order, in which the “elite” all become mega-wealthy whilst the general population become no more than serfs, marking time all through their lives. If the Democrats get in, the borders with Mexico will go and the US will be flooded with them – all working for peanuts – and you know what that is going to do. Trump is your/our only hope. If he fails, then it’s time for a national strike.
You might want to check out your statement on Wikipedia and Google…. The New World Order is a Republican Dream and began with Nixon going to China…
Eagle,
You might want to broaden your readings in history beyond Wikipedia. The term “New World Order” has been in use since before Nixon was born. And the particular usage by Geoff (Bilderbergers) began in 1954, and has never been about China.
Donald Trump is our only chance!
The nation as a whole is asleep! But as you it’s predict it is going to be one hella wake up call!
FILIPINOS….trust DONALD TRUMP. Hilary Clinton is a L..I..A..R!!! Bill Clinton don’t deserve to go back to the
White House, because HE IS A………C..H..E..A..T..E..R!!!!! Both of them should be in JAIL!!!
AGREED — 100 PERCENT. WAKE UP, AMERICA, AND TURN YOURSELF AROUND!!!
Since this is an investment site, I will repeat an investment study that showed up several years ago in the Huffington Post and the New York Times that demonstrate, historically, which candidate your investments are most like to do better with..
During the study period from 1929 to 2012, $10,000 invested during ONLY Democratic Administrations would have grown to roughly $300,000. The same amount invested in ONLY Republican Administrations would have grown to only roughly $11,000. During this research period the Democrat and the Republican years in office were about the same….. The title of the article was “Poor Dumb Rich People”
Personally, in my opinion,I believe it it has to to with something called the “Velocity of Money”… During periods of Democratic leadership, more money flows to the 97% and they spend that money and jobs are created and the economy Flourishes…On the other hand, during periods of Republican domination, money tends to flow away from the 97% and into the hands of the 3% (who mostly fund the Republican candidates) and the 97% have less money to spend and buying falls and with that, the economy Falters as jobs are lost…
Think the above is BS? I would point just three facts: 1) During the past 100 years there have been two Stock Market Crashes and Depressions (1929 and 2007) and BOTH occurred after periods of Republican Domination and 2) the bottoms of BOTH of those financial disasters occurred during periods of Democratic leadership.and 3)) Since the “Republican Revolution” in 1981, the Middle Class has gotten crushed and only the 3% have gotten richer….
Source of investment results please?
When you get that source check the assumptions baked into their calculation… I bet you will be surprised.
The velocity of money refers to the number of times a dollar changes hands in a given time period. What you are referring to is the Gini coefficient and its measure of income/wealth concentration in an economy.
Pay one worker $1,000,000 and they will buy 1 house and 2 cars
Pay ten workers $100,000 and they will buy 10 houses and 10 cars and 10 refrigerators and…
Geez Brian,
You’ve just used the “exact words” to repeat what I said above. Did you read your rebuttal? The source is above. Simply Google it, aye? You’ve used the right words, but left me with great doubts as to your education. What, did you look up those terms on Wikipedia? Geeezzz… :(
Since this is an investment site, citing The Huffington Post & The New York Times regarding what ‘would have happened if…’ is ridiculous. It is typical ‘woulda, shoulda, coulda’ narrative elicited by dreamers, it didn’t happen so why cite those two left wing rags? Come back to earth, that’s like trying to prove unicorns exist.
For the sake of new readers reading this often repeated boilerplate selective history for the first time, the following should provide useful perspective:
1920: A severe recession that lasted 2 years, brought on by WW1 and the new Federal Reserve (enacted by PROGRESSIVES) turned an ordinary recession into a depression but you don’t know that because CONSERVATIVES took over in 1921, with Harding first being hands-off and his successor, Coolidge, dramatically reducing gum’ment. The result; The Roaring Twenties.
1929: A deep recession made worse initially by PROGRESSIVES raising taxes and tariffs temporarily resulting in a slight recovery in 1932. It then escalated to an 11 year long depression when FDR, a PROGRESSIVE, campaigned on balancing the budget, cutting gum’ment and taxes then proceeded to do precisely the opposites.
From 1929 through the late 1940s, CONSERVATIVES had little influence on gum’ment or the economy which largely languished. WW2, of course, did not help. However, the USD had been effectively taken off the gold standard under FDR which freed the Feds to manipulate money supply by raising interest rates which reduced GDP growth but lessened the severity of economic downturns….sort of.
1948, with PROGRESSIVES still in control, Inflation spiked, commodities collapsed, unemployment rose and the Feds cut interest rates.
1953: This is where things start getting squirrelly. The Feds pre-emptively contracted the money supply before Ike was inaugurated. Nevertheless, CONSERVATIVES were back in control so the recession lasted only 12 months.
1957: CONSERVATIVES still in control, the Feds again contracted the money supply and this time, the effect of this caused the recession to be global. However, in the US, the downturn lasted only eight months.
1960: The Feds did it again! CONSERVATIVES still in control, the Feds contracted the money supply and unemployment and inflation spiked for three quarters.
1969: PROGRESSIVES back in control and fail to respond in any meaningful way to a significant decline in production of goods prior to the inauguration of Nixon. This lasted almost a year.
1973: Oil embargo, Watergate and more led to a significant economic recession leading to the PROGRESSIVES back in control and a long period of stagflation, especially under Carter who also massively increased gum’ment regulation and spending while the Feds expanded money supply.
1980-1981: The Feds contract money supply causing a surge in inflation and significant investment decline. The recession barely ended as the CONSERVATIVES took over but the Feds again contract the money supply. Reaganomics would take time to kick in but ultimately lead to the greatest economic growth since the Roaring Twenties.
1991: PROGRESSIVES back in control with general reversal of Reagan policies, increased gum’ment expansion, the S&L bailout and a stagnant economy leading ultimately to the CONSERVATIVE revolution of 1994 where for the first time in decades, CONSERVATIVES controlled Congress.
2000-2001: After years of more responsible gum’ment spending, welfare reform, deficit reduction and even retirement of some of the national debt, the Feds yet again contracted the money supply leading to the 2001 recession.
In conclusion, the Feds do more harm than good. Extended periods of prosperity are due to CONSERVATIVE policies. The nature and longevity of economic downturns is mostly due to PROGRESSIVEs.
Important to note that CONSERVATIVEs and PROGRESSIVEs refer to ideologies, not political parties. While there are today precious few CONSERVATIVEs in the Republican Party, there are essentially none left in the Democratic Party.
In my opinion, if there is not a significant CONSERVATIVE resurgence in gum’ment soon enough, we are toast, no matter which political party is in control of gum’ment.
Stop using a cute phrase like “gum’ment”, and maybe your post will be taken seriously. Once was enough to get your point across. Several times just makes you look foolish.
It’s the it’s the freeloaders and illegal voters who elect the foolish gum’ment…
That Bill is that is foolish…!
Espy is simply sick and tired of all the foolishness and the foolish people that elect foolish people…
His criticism by virtue of mocking the criminals in gum’ment is to applauded…!
The alleged “republican domination” prior to 2007 is not accurate. Please consider
the presidency of Bill Clinton and subsequent Democrat-dominated Congress and
Senate which led to the dot-com and housing market collapses.
What did that do to the middle class?
You guys need to stop getting your economic history from the GOP, aye? Try a college text from any of the LEADING institutions of higher education….. Three points simple refute all of the your historical revision supplied by the GOP…… !) Our Grandparents re-elected FDR AND a Progressive Liberal congress more times than any other President in American history….. 2) The Great and Longest increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the greatest growth of the Middle Class and the greatest increase in the living standards of the Average (97%) American and the greatest and longest increase in Economic and Manufacturing out put occurred during the Liberal Progressive (Democrat) leadership of 1932-1981….. 3) During the 1800’s the CONSERVATIVE Southern Slave Holders were the Democrats and the Liberal Progressives (Including Lincoln) were called Republicans…… That all began to reverse round the end of the 1800’s and today, the Liberal Progressives are called Democrats and the Conservatives who serve at the beck and call of the 3% are called Republicans….
1st of all eagle495 FDR only got 3rd term because of global war ww2 after FDRs 3rd term the people said never again and initiated a 2 term limit for president let me repeat never again … 2nd of all your information is cherry picked your saying the great increase in the DOW happened from 1932 that only because it was at the very bottom and only worth a handful of dollars the market had completely crashed all the democrats showed us were recessions depressions and malaise LETS quit talking about the past and look to the present and the future …. well what has obama done other than twist number and blame others for his unability to lead sounds alot like hillery doesnt it
FDR run for an UNPRECEDENTED 3rd and 4th term, defying tradition and leading to the 22nd Amendment. In the meantime, he completely stacked Fe’ral courts and expanded gum’ment more than any other president in history.
Wrong about the history between 1932 and 1981; see above. In particular, from 1929 to 1946, Democrats oversaw the longest and worst period of economic misery in the nation’s history.
The narrative that somehow the party of slavery, segregation, KKK, eugenics and Jim Crow laws somehow magically switched places with the party founded initially to end slavery and somewhat attempt to preserve originalist principles has been debunked many, many times. No such things have happened. In fact, it is the Democrats who have established an unsustainable welfare system that effectively achieves the same ends of their previous policies.
Progressivism did not even exist in anything like its modern form until the late 19th century and really only began gaining traction under Woodrow Wilson.
Waclaw
Republicans held a majority in both the House and the Senate from 1995 to 2007. The excesses of the Dot Com and Housing bubbles were a direct result of Republican Alan (What Me Worry) Greenspan’s Laissez Faire policies. Note the deficit declined to a balanced budget after George H. W, Bush and Bill Clinton raised taxes partially reversing Reagan’s Voodoo Economics. The deficit again exploded after George W. Bush and the Republican controlled Congress returned to Voodoo. I know no one likes taxes but if you’re going to double military spending, start two wars and spend 300 billion per year on “security” you should at least pay for it. I do fault Obama for going along with these disastrous policies and adding trillions to the debt.
keep reading the huffinton post eagle actually the democrats held the senate from 2004-2014 and the congress from 2004-2010
Warm Greetings and a Special Thanks for this curtain Update!!
I have followed your highly priced insights into the Vital workings of our world. I am a Canadian up here in Victoria, B.C. And Truely less worthy of any of your time But. I need today thanks. When I read your views, it is easy to pick up the truth and sense of what you say. I thank you kindly
Very Best Regards; David Slinn
A few points:
1. Nate Silver is a Democrat. His party allegiance affects all of his prognostications….like you said….he totally missed his earlier bets.
2. I think your number 7 is the real potential problem for Hillary. A falling stock market leads to bad social mood (or vice versa) and that would lead to a vote for no 3rd term. Historically, the stock market has a good correlation on these matters.
3. RE all of Hillary’s potential criminal problems….just as Trump seems to be immune to the attacks……it seems that Hillary is now immune to damage from her corruption and poor judgment.
Regarding the direction of the market and the bets by Icahn and Druck….I can see a scenario where the market would advance another 10-15% here (max, from the technicals)….but we could also tumble rather precipitously. The next 2 weeks should give the direction. Either way, the longer term direction, I believe, is down.
Trump is making a big show now, but he will lose to Bernie in November.
God forbid that ANYONE loses to Bernie — EVER!!!
Until the corruption gets cleared up in Washington, i do not think things will change much. I also feel that an International event is close to happening. The world seems to be able to handle plane crashes that kill hundreds. It will probably take a bigger event to create the explosion of economic death. Hundreds of 300 thousand dollar homes are being built in my area. The average person cannot qualify for these home loans. it appears as though it is all levels of Government workers moving up. Or maybe retired folks moving into the area. It looks to me like we are overbuilding. It would not surprise me if things don’t blow before the general election.
DB you must be in Texas…
In fairness, I would not expect you to argue in favor of Mrs. Clinton. Statistics show that she dominates the most commanding block of voters in the United States. And, like sports that we all enjoy watching, the African American should not be overlooked. The underbelly of this group is amazingly complex and should not be ignored if one has access to people tools you obviously have.
Economically, the main issue is the U.S. currency and whether GOLD is the answer to the dollar that has zero support nationally and is overdrawn internationally. Soros and his fellow billionaires expect GOLD to rise. The opposite is true. Assuming you are aware of “Petroleum dollar”, the SWIFT system and a few other economic factors important to our way of life. The plug has been pulled. We must use all American resources to champion our politics and economics honestly.
MONEY, MONEY, MONEY !!! YOU AND HILLARY !! DO ANY OF YOU REALLY CARE ABOUT OUR COUNTRY? ARE YOU A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AN EMP STRIKE??
HAS ALL SENSE OF WHAT’S REALLY IMPORTANT TO SOME OF US OUT HERE, INCLUDING GOD ALMIGHTY HIMSELF, THAT WASHINGTON AND OUR LEADERS HAVE LET US ALL DOWN…PHARMA SHOULD BE BROKEN UP…AND DISCONNECTED FROM ANYONE RUNNING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE? WHERE DID “SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS COME FROM?” greed is the answer…people in our country sleeping under a bridge..unable to feed their children….I have been a supporter of Trump. and will continue to be…he truly CARES! NO DOUBT ABOUT IT….JUST ONE OLD LADIES OPINION THIS MORNING…HAVE A GREAT DAY!
I will buy that, old lady you are on the money.
OUTSTANDING ADVICE
Martin: an excellent survey. I bet you’ll be correct in most of your predictions. But I think the worst will happen. Once the stock market begins to unravel we won’t see the end of it for a long time. Pity Trump if he wins. He’ll face a virtual Armageddon.
As Yahoo-Finance reported over the weekend, Trump is now seeking the help of the Wall Street In crowd. He will need that money to win, and is behaving like any other politician to get his share. This means promises of some kind. As Clinton has doubtless promised, Trump will, also. This means he is just as much a part of the Elite, as Clinton is. Note that the latest polls show that the outsider, Sanders, is ahead of Trump by 11%, while Trump is catching up to Clinton. Don’t think that the Democratic establishment isn’t looking at those figures and scratching their heads, hmmm. Incidentally, Ms. Yellen is also, and the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in June has increased substantially. Maybe it has finally gotten through to her that QE and such doesn’t work, and hurts people and companies that need the income from normal market rates. If so, watch for any coming crash to be abbreviated and lead to a huge boom under Trump or Sanders.
Watch for Congress to be split – Republican Senate, Democratic House. I know I intend to vote for the Republican Biker/Grandma in MD, rather than the dull Dem. Insider for the Senate.
Very good analysis. Risk Management is the key to success these days.
We do need a STRONG MAN in the white. House for a change. Trump is our only hope right now. I believe he will hire the right people for his advisors and he has a strong history of taking advice from the experts like yourself. Let’s make America great again!
A strong man, yes. As Italy had Mussolini we shall have Trump! As for advisors he’s talked to Phil Gramm, architect of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act which was instrumental in the banking collapse in 2008 and Henry Kissinger who initiated the murder of the democratically elected President of Chile.
Which one will keep us on God’s side? Hillary wants to hide him in the closet!
What has made Trump successful in business is not obvious to most – – His weakness is his strength! His weakness is – – he knows – – what he does not know! Hold on to your judgment hats as you’re trying to put understanding on that statement. Successful decisions require – – smart, intelligent, knowledgable and experienced people to supply successful results. Smart business people who have the ability to discern that, search and find the elite thinkers and builds a coalition of intelligent, bright and brilliant consortium of faithful and trusted people – – to make successful decision for every essential necessity. Trump has employed this brilliantly over his business success. It’s the principle of great leaders, where it is said, ” To build a strong enterprise, you build through wise planning, by keeping a breast of the facts and seek the counsel of many wise counselors – – and you shall prosper wonderfully! Proverbs, NIV – –
– – watching from the wall – – – NC
While I understand what you are saying, your thesis falls completely flat when we consider the Trump Shuttle, Trump Vodka, Trump Ice (water), the Trump Casino, Trump Mortgage, Trump Steaks, and possibly Trump University.
Trump has only one marketing strategy – buy something cheap, slap on a bunch of luxury add-ones, plaster it with his name and put it out there, since he has established a facade of Trump = quality and luxury. As the list above shows – it fails miserably when he gets outside of his primary business area.
Trump once said – “Always be around unsuccessful people because they will respect you”. His team appears to be less-than-stellar so far – hardly the best and the brightest.
Couple this with his proven record of firing off whatever pops into his mind, and you have someone who is not suitable for President.
Sure, he could win – he has a gift for pandering – but he will likely not be the savior everyone expects him to be.
Thanks for your prognosis on the election. Yes Dr Weiss, things are getting really interesting. So what will happen regarding Yellin and the Fed? I think the fallout to the Fed will be enormous, along with devaluation of the dollar encumbered to stagflation. How else to reconcile debt? The events of this year and next year will be remembered and talked about for a long time to come. These events will impact history in a major way. Change will happen in more countries than just the USA. Hey, politics and bureaucracy could use some change; like yesterday, if not sooner.
As JFK once famously said, “IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID.”
Check your source… James Carville in 1992
Thank you for your insight regarding Trump and his effect on my money. I completely concur with your analysis. I am concerned about the large percentage of the work force that are not counted as “unemployed” which makes me doubt the other numbers calculated by our government.
I am so appreciative of you and your associates for the service you provide to your members.
. . . . an exceptionally good article. I hope you’re right! RL
Of course Trump is going to win! And Obama will hand-back the economy on the same “to-big-to-fail” platter that the Bush administration gave it to him in 2008. The next bail-out, no matter who is president, will make the last one look like chump-change. That’s why I keep in touch with you and Larry and watch the gold market daily.
There is one thing that could derail Donald Trump, if the DNC realize that in spite of all they’ve done to defeat Bernie Sanders he should be the nominee. Otherwise, you’re right Trump will win. Bernie Sanders is the only thing that can stop that and the liberal media’s support for Hillary is so strong, an MSNBC host was caught once hushing a co-anchor just for speaking Bernie’s name.
Why wouldn’t a businessman be good for the stock market? If the president continues to support liberal programs thereby increasing the national debt, isn’t this bad for the stock market?
Thank you so much Dr. Weiss, I tend to think you are totally right, I am a Costa Rican citizen and certainly am afraid of Mr. Trump way of seeing the world and the United States of America within that World. I really appreciate your good work.
Many thanks for your wise and timely advice. Even if markets don’t take a hit in the near term, it is still way too risky to have much money long the market at this point. In fact I have a little money invested in market short ETF’s, gold miners, and Smith and Wesson stock right now.
Hi Martin,
I have taken your advise a long time ago.I’m very well posioned in all of what you’ve said.
Have a good day,and thanks again.
Denis
Trump is an unmitigated disaster…a bigger liar than all the candidates combined…abusing the business ethics of going bankrupt 4 TIMES …WHILE THE WORKERS LOST EVERYTHING…hey it is legal, who cares! Billionaires supporting Trump are PART OF THE PROBLEM, thank u Carl ICON(how much god***n $$ do u want)…no one on the planet gets out alive…how about reasonably solving problems?
Signed,
A Radical Capitalist…stick that in your pipe & try reading Porter Stansberry, Rodney Johnson, etc.
Interesting observations. Sort of reminds me of the old saying that “all war plans are perfect until the fighting starts.” I think, in any event, we are in for interesting times (Chinese definition).
I pray that Trump wins. He is the only hope that we have. Clinton would only make things worse. She does not care about Americans . I hate how she is lying to the blacks.
Buying crashed stocks is a good idea IF the market recovers, which sometimes takes decades. The DJIA took 30 years to recover from the decline starting in 1965, considering inflation. And look at Japan’s Nikkei 225 index, still down 50% from the decline starting in 1989!
Well said , Martin !
TRUMP 2016
Very good presentation.! Completely agree.
Thanks, Martin,
That seems like very sound advice. I’m presently at 100 percent cash. How much of that do you think I should have in physically held greenbacks?
Clinton said with an air of confidence knowing that Trump has not paid a penny in Fed taxes in years. Could that general knowledge if it became that be to much shock for Trump?
If Clinton said it, it has to be true. She would not lie.
so what Craig, the democrat leaders have never worked at a real job. Biden just stated that fact last week. How in the heck can you lead anything that you have not experienced.
Go TRUMP
Ten trillion in borrowed dollars thrown at it and the economy is flatlining. Hard to jump on the left’s bandwagon
Trump is a very smart guy, right now he is about 10 moves ahead of hiliary if you play chess… which he does play Mr. Trump… go DONALD…
Roger
I agree Trump is a real leader who will surround himself with the Best and the Brightest advisors he can find . I know he will make a great president because he will be well informed to make good decisions !
Vinman
THE TRUMP MOVEMENT CANNOT BE DENIED! WE DONT NEED ANOTHER FOUR YEARS OF A NON CONSTITUTIONAL DICTATOR! WE NEED A NEW CHANCE TO MAKE OUR COUNTRY GREAT AGAIN. WE ARE THE GREAT EMANCIPATOR OF THE WORLD , CONTINUALLY HELPING EVERY NATION, NOW IT IS OUR TURN TO RECAPTURE A HEALTHY & PROSPEROUS FUTURE FOR OUR CHILDREN!! VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP!!!!
Thank you God Bless America!!!
Martin: Your weekly commentary is the cream of Weiss Research!! Keep’er coming!!! Ed
Hey, Syl, your written composition is great. Where did you go to school? I’m voting for whomever you aren’t.
I am impressed with your analysis. Aside from her corrupt leadership, the Americans are reluctant to place another dynastic family in the White House. Clinton promises more of decline and decadence of the Obama Administration. Trump promises an uprising of a new middle class and America in control of its own destiny. And in the end, Bernie Sanders could be our next president. He is the only candidate with truth as his quest, honor and commitment to fairness for all Americans that must be the goals/values of any potentially great leader.
Spoken like a true American. I wish there were more of us in places to help America and less of the melodramatic billionaires, currently running our country.
Some one has to lead this nation and Trump is the best of all bad. Trump! Trump! Trump!
Did you see the TV program VICE produced by Bill Maher, where he shows Donald Trump homes and golf courses in Dubai, where they traffic human labor that builds Trump’s deluxe homes and facilities? They contract to pay their labor $3 an hour. When they arrive in Dubai they confiscate their passports; and they pay them only $1.50 an hour. Then they charge them a huge amount of money to renew their passports, for which they paid about $1,200 and I think possibly or likely went in debt to do. Also, the rents are so high, they fill a rental space with as many bunk beds as the room will hold; and many rent it to just sleep there according to a schedule. The bathrooms, maintenance and cooking facilities are inadequate. I think things like this, along with his intemperate comments, will likely undermine Trump, and poison his base against him.
The big problem as I see it is that both parties nominate extremists as their candidates. I consider myself a “middle of the roader.” That’s a vague term, but I believe most American voters fall into that broad category. I don’t want any of the current candidates as President. I wish the Republican effort to nominate a different republican “third party” candidate would happen, but it would be pointless if that candidate would be another extremist.
We need someone like Donald Trump as President to shake up the World. What are these leaders doing? Are they sleeping? Obama and Clinton have been sitting on their hands; they talk about getting rid of Isis but they are doing nothing. What action is being taken? Trump will start a big movement; get all his allies together and all the Syrians can go back to their countries which they love and where they belong. They do not want to be in Canada; it is too cold for them here. Why are we bringing them here when we do not have enough work for our own people? Our leaders need a “head exam”. Moving all these people out of Europe is wrong; we should get rid of the enemy and leave them in the country they love best. (My opinion)
The democrats put forth leaders whom have never been employed in a real job.
Biden just stated that fact last week.
Perhaps we should look for leaders who have actually worked for a living.
Oh wait we can’t, as the system is rigged to not let anyone get elected.
Bernie has never had a real job.
Mitt Romney and George W. had the job of saying “Thanks Dad”.
I believe Trump has resonated with the American People and he knows that Americans want there Government to listen to them and do whats good for the country for a change . All the politicians have had there chance and have failed to listen to the people so now Americans will give Trump a chance because he is the only one who seems to truly care about the future of our country .
Palin said “you can see Russia from Alaska” (not from her kitchen window.) Bernie can’t see Russia from Vermont but he doesn’t need to since he actually honeymooned in Russia. Both are “honest” and have the “best interest at heart for America” but neither would be a good president. The unconvinced Republicans and Democrats and Independents right now are polling Bernie leading Trump. THE LAST THING AMERICA NEEDS IS A SOCIALIST. A socialist will take from those who produce and give it to those who don’ produce. Hillary said that she has more “international diplomatic experience” than any other candidate. But flying about the world with no ACCOMPLISHMENTS, is not the foreign experience America needs.
America needs a disrupter: Donald J. Trump.
People say women are not going to vote for Trump,Well every women I know can’t wait for November,as a matter of Fact everyone I talk to is going to vote for Trump,We have all already made up our mind.And nothing is going to change it.I work in a restaurant ,I talk to people evey day women and men they all say the same TRUMP
Term Limit,s?? Living in Washington as a politician until beach retirement.!!!!# Clean House!!!!! Vote Trump.
Term Limits is a great idea !!! Ted Kennedy was in office so long they considered it his seat which implies Royalty instead of a Public Servant !!!
As a Canadian I find the divergence of opinion on the election by Americans both interesting and distressing. The bottom line seems to be, “Whoever offers the most free stuff wins” because young people with no real life experience have not yet learned that no government can give anyone anything they do not first takeaway from someone else, and it seems some of their parents have not learned that very basic lesson yet either. God help America if they elect a socialist/idealist or a crony capitalist. At least with Trump you have an experienced business man who will not pander to special interests. Canada fell into the trap of electing a socialist in the guise of a Liberal and already the deficit is DOUBLE what he promised in his election platform based on borrowing to stimulate the economy, and that is the foundational problem no politician of any political party will honestly address. We desperately need monetary reform that will put an end to the strangle hold International bankers have as created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 that now has all Central Banks in the world embedded as a monopoly with the privilege of creating each countries currency supply out of thin air as a DEBT enslaving the people for life. There is no logical reason WHY governments on behalf of the people could not revoke this outrageous privilege by taking back the printing plates and creating the needed currency supply on an interest free basis as a CREDIT, with the natural resources of the country as collateral. This would mean anything physically possible and desirable would be made financially possible on a debt free basis and taxed back over the lifetime of all societies infrastructure needs. Why should bankers as the middlemen who contribute nothing in labour or raw materials benefit equally for merely printing numbers on pretty pieces of paper? Simple example. if things like water mains and our electricity grid, necessary components of our modern life are breaking down, (and they are) and need to be replaced, is not asinine to claim we can not afford it when we have the raw materials needed and people needing work? WHY should we have to go hat in hand to bankers to create the money out of thin air (which they do) by governments issuing bonds (debt instruments) to give to the bankers to create the money when the government on behalf of the people could do it DEBT FREE? Don’t fall for the banker propaganda that they merely make their money between the interest rates they PAY on deposits, zAlmost nothing to-day) and the interest they receive on the 90% they loan back out at higher rates of interest. That is PURE FICTON!
Graham Towers Canada;s central banker in 1939 truthfully testified under oath before a parliamentary committee that “EVERY BANK LOAN IS A NEW CREATION OF MONEY, and when it is paid back it ceases to exist” in other word is cancelled out, Since INTEREST is never created, the only way it can continue to be paid is if there is an ever expanding pyramid of DEBT that replaces currency paid back, PLUS all accumulated interest. Does that not explain the reasons for things like “teasers rates on credit cards, sub prime mortgages, student loans that can not be cleared via bankruptcy, extended car loans now stretching out for 7 years ad infinitum? THE MONSTER HAS TO BE FED! These debt bubbles are simply the outward manifestation of a COLLAPSING PONZI SCHEME.
The piper will be paid! While our clueless politicians and corrupt bankers “fiddle while Rome burns” it is up to each individual to educate themselves and take the necessary steps to protect their wealth within the confines of the precious freedoms that still remain before our system of crony capitalism collapses around the ears of the 95% brainwashed by establishment rhetoric about an improving economy. Ask yourself, WHY are so many millionaires and billionaires pulling their wealth out of the stock market, betting against fiat currencies and moving millions into precious metals, do they see something you are missing?
Your comments are mind blowingly, TRUE. Too bad SMART people like yourself don’t have enough money or influence to make a difference. This is the problem with this electoral system. Who is really capable, will never get a chance to complete because of the lack of “billions” in their bank accounts. Achieving financial wealth on the backs of others should be a crime. Oh yeah, I forgot it’s called SLAVERY! GOD help us all.
Amen! Trump is the only one free of obligations. Which gives him freedom to act. The whole house is tied up to the special interests.
Martin, I hope your fact #4 will be resolved legally with reference to Hillary:
By Federal law, Hillary Clinton is ineligible to run for President, according to 18 U.S.C. § 2071(b)
A State Department audit released 05/26/2016 faults Hillary Clinton in stating that her and her team ignored clear guidance from the State Department that her private email use in sensitive government matters broke Federal standards and could leave sensitive materials vulnerable to hackers. The Inspector General’s review goes on to say hacking attempts forced then Secretary of State Clinton off of using email at one point in 2011.
The 78-page analysis, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, says Clinton ignored clear directives. She never sought approval to conduct government business over private email, and never demonstrated that the server or the Blackberry she used while in office “met minimum information security requirements.”
Twice in 2010, information management staff at the State Department raised concerns that Clinton’s email practices failed to meet federal records-keeping requirements. The staff’s director responded that Clinton’s personal email system had been reviewed and approved by legal staff, and that “the matter was not to be discussed any further.”
By Federal law, this means Hillary Clinton is ineligible to run for President, according to 18 U.S.C. § 2071(b), which states:
“Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States.â€
Above all, under Federal law, Hillary Clinton must be disqualified from running for President of the United States and should be fined and/or imprisoned for willfully breaking the law.
Trump is a megalomaniac . He listens to no one . will need to vote for the Libertarian candidate Johnson.
Bracing myself for close election which Trump may win. I don’t much care, he’s rather amusing, except that he will pursue energy poliicies which will lead to climate imbalance and destroy the human population of the planet. Glad I won’t be here in 50 years.
Donald Trump – the Kremlin’s man in American politics. Tune in to RT if you doubt me.
I read your article from Australia, we are all watching here, unfortunately the opposition has been commenting on American politics, where he should be concentrating what is happening here in Australia, I am always reading your articles, God Bless America !!!!
Hillary Clinton – Elizabeth Warren. Unbeatable!
I hope you are wrong MNKO. That combination would be the most untrustworthy and opaque administration the voters could elect. I don’t know your education or talent level, but you better look beyond the election to see whether you will have a position or even a reasonable life in a democratic-socialist society that will be spiraling toward fascism as the wealth of citizens runs out.
Fear should be in the hearts of every American. Should Trump become President, our country is in for HITLER like changes. Case 1- Our country has an established campaign protocol. TRUMP, in his campaign, decides what he will and will not do, despite what the established protocol that every other candidate had to follow dictates! The arrogance and pride of this is treason. And THIS IS A SMALL ACT. There are numerous actions, throughout his campaign that leads one thinking” Is TRUMP already in charge?” If someone, with less money attempted this, they would be immediately put in their place. Who plans on putting TRUMP in his place? He respects no one, and buys anyone who opposes him. Has anyone asked WHY TRUMP wants to be president? Or should I say DICTATOR of America!
He’s already in the white house.!
Hillary may have skeletons and she may have done some things wrong, but who hasn’t? TRUMP owns CASINOS!! Explain to me how his hands are so clean? We all know mafia ties are in casinos! H. Clinton RESPECTS American values and its people. Her and her husband have done nothing but positive things for our country even if all the plans didn’t work out . Whose plans ALL work out? Decisions are not magic or witchcraft. The results cannot always be anticipated. They did profit from being in Office. Why shouldn’t they? If I work for a company, I also work for myself. On my job, I do what my company wants but I use my influence to prosper my own interests. This is called looking out for yourself!! When does self preservation becomes a crime? The Clintons life before the White House was NOT marred with inappropriate actions, only after merging with the our very racist Congress did the Clintons become victim to the manipulation of the Congress. Again, It’s not Hillary, that’s the problem, it’s Congress. Congress has been the problem for the last 8 years! And no one is dealing with that dysfunctional bunch! Yes, there are problems and we need help to fix them, but going back to the 1940’s where the gangsters ran things IS NOT THE ANSWER! History is repeating itself.
Elola, you must have suffered a loss of memory with this last comment on the Clintons. They have too many skeletons and have done too many things wrong. You might give the voters a list of these positive things for our country, because a small list I would put together would include the improbable commodity investment and the shady property investment in Arkansas, Bill Clinton’s abuse of women and his draft dodging; the policy decision to destroy the government and Dictator of Lybia/Benghazi where four Americans and many others died, Filegate, Travelgate, the Mark Rich pardon, Kathleen Wiley abuse, White House looting the mishandling of National Security Documents and the money-grubbing Clinton Foundation setup while in Washington D.C. Does this sound like a couple with the Country’s interests first? As far as looking after yourself on the job, you don’t have to worry about Hillary. There is a list of 92 checks for speaking fees and only a few are for less than $235,000. The president’s investments have to be placed in trust when elected, so some of the hanky-panky will be avoided. I also don’t understand how a racist Congress gets involved in their/her scandals. You might review some of your comment for Truth.
To the author, thank you for the warning concerning the market. It’s funny,within the last 8 years, the market has recovered. Now with the impending election of TRUMP your advise screams Americans, put your money elsewhere!
I have been patiently waiting for a huge drop in this VERY inflated over bought market.Think I will follow the smart guys and go net short , NOW.