By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine
There’s no telling how long the housing crisis will drag on. Here’s what you need to know before you start shopping in a rocky market.
Rule 1: You can’t time the bottom
Face it: The house you buy today will more than likely be worth less next year. That could get you thinking about trying to time the bottom. Resist. It’s harder to do than you think, and this is the best buyers have had it in two decades, with inventories up and mortgage rates low.
Pace yourself, find the perfect place and drive a hard bargain: Ignore the seller’s asking price and bid 10% below what comparable homes are selling for. If the seller balks, move on. Remember that if you’re trading up, your home could sit. So sell before you buy.
Rule 2: One reason to buy now – mortgage rates
Homes are plentiful and will remain so, but financing will be getting more expensive. True, the Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates, but fixed mortgages don’t directly follow the Fed. They reflect the bond market’s expectations about inflation, which remains a concern. The 30-year, now at 6.1%, will likely reach mid-6% by December and 7% in 2009, says Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com.
That means there could be a penalty for waiting to buy even if prices fall more. Today a $250,000 loan would set you back $1,500 a month. At 7%, a $1,500 payment gets you only a $225,000 mortgage. As for variable-rate loans, the spread between conforming ARMs and fixed loans is too narrow to do you much good.
