It’s 10 a.m. Monday morning, April 26; and as I survey the events swirling around us, it’s clear that everything I’ve been writing to you about in recent weeks is building up to a crescendo.
* THE BOND MARKET BUBBLE – too many institutions and individuals borrowing too much money to buy long-term bonds and make long-term loans – is about to burst.
Last week, even while stock indexes continued to edge higher, bonds continued to fall. But key stock sectors that are sensitive to interest rates – including home builders, mortgage brokers, sub-prime lenders, and others – failed to recover, despite very sharp declines this month. (I’ll give you an example in a moment).
* PYRRHIC VICTORIES in the war on terrorism are looming larger – especially in Falluja and Najaf, the focus of my “Martin on Monday” two weeks ago. American commanders warn that we will attack within days – not weeks. If so, I have no doubt that superior American firepower and resolve will prevail.
But will a coalition victory in Falluja be the “Alamo” cry for millions of radical Moslems for years to come? And will a victory over the holy Shiite city of Najaf be remembered for generations, even centuries? Will we hand our enemies the ultimate tools for the recruitment of terrorists around the world – hatred and the thirst for revenge?
Already, the multi-thousand-man militia of Moktada al-Sadr, the radical anti-American cleric, is piling up stockpiles of arms in the mosques, schools, and homes of Najaf. I pray a negotiated settlement will emerge. But hope is fading fast.
* The REAL ESTATE MADNESS (which Tony Sagami told you about on March 29) is also coming to a head. The mortgage, housing, and construction booms have been so consistently and thoroughly driven by falling interest rates that ANY interest rate rise, even a modest one, looms as an ominous threat. Imagine the impact of SHARP rate rises, such as the one we are beginning to witness right now!
These rapid changes – converging in one time and place – mandate that you make some equally rapid changes in the way you track them. Specifically, beyond your weekly Martin on Monday emails …
* You and I need to be in touch more frequently.
* You need the ability to explore the information we can provide you, taking what you need, when you need it.
* I want you to have a better understanding of the investments available that can protect you – or even help you profit – from these swirling events.
With this in mind, I am inviting you to celebrate with me a landmark event in my 40-year career …
TODAY IS THE DAY I OFFICIALLY LAUNCH MY NEW WEBSITE, MARTINWEISS.COM!
Just because I’m known for warning investors about the dangers of tech stocks in late 1999 and 2000 doesn’t mean I don’t like technology itself. Quite to the contrary, technology runs in my family.
In 1926, by the time Mom and Dad graduated from high school, they were both high-speed touch typists on the Underwood No. 5. And long before Dad became a broker on Wall Street in 1929, he was surrounded by the most modern telegraph and ticker tape technology available at the time. Later, when he started his research company on Wall Street, he was among the first to buy an electric multiplying/dividing machine, a precursor to the first computers.
Fast forward to 1977, when I was running my own small research company. I didn’t have much capital, but a couple of years before the introduction of the first IBM PC, I splurged on the IMSAI VDP-80, the ultimate “hacker” micro computer of the time and the same model that was later featured in the movie War Games.
There was no World Wide Web at the time, and virtually no one had email. But the Internet had existed for years at major universities, the Pentagon, the CIA, etc. As soon as I could afford it, I splurged again – this time on equipment and software to plug our company into the Internet. As a private research firm, we were among the first.
Today, with the launch of MartinWeiss.com, we mark another major breakthrough for our company. Modesty aside, I think it is one of the easiest-to-use, most-powerful and most-advanced newsletter websites in the world today. It includes:
* Our Daily Commentary.
* My daily “Martin’s Corner” – my personal insights designed to give you a better understanding of what’s happening, what’s going to happen and why.
* Daily Q&A – questions from readers plus answers that I trust you will find very useful.
* Our Bond Screener tool – use it to quickly figure out the real value of bonds you own or are considering buying.
* Our Options Investors University – a complete education on options all the way from the basics to more complex strategies.
* Your Portfolio – set it up once, and our site will track it for you continually.
* Your Watchlist – got your eye on a certain company? Simply tell this tool which companies you want to track, the fundamental criteria you want displayed, and it will do the rest.
And as you’ll personally experience right now, this list barely scratches the surface of what the new site offers. However, to take advantage of these tools, you must register. It won’t cost you anything. And it won’t take you any time. But it will unlock a new world that will greatly enhance the value you get each week out of Martin on Monday.
HERE’S HOW TO REGISTER
Just click on the link below and it will take you straight to our log-in and registration page.
http://www.martinweiss.com/ngLogin.asp
Just fill in the blanks on the right side of the page where it says “Not a Member? Join for free.” Then click the “continue” button. That’s it! You’ll be in.
Next time you visit the site, you will not have to re-enter your username as long as you’re visiting the site using the same computer and as long as you leave the automatic login feature clicked “on.”
For your convenience, we’ve turned on the auto login feature for you – so you can always connect quickly WITHOUT entering your login information each time. But, just in case you’re on the road or using a different computer, take a moment to write down your USERNAME and PASSWORD, and put them in a safe, handy place. They are unique to you. To protect your personal information, please do not share them with anyone else.
WEBSITE TOUR
The next thing I’d like you to do is take our tour, which I’ve personally recorded in a “cyberseminar” to best show you how to take full advantage of the site’s powerful tools.
Just look to the right side of our home page. You’ll see a slice of a film strip with the words “Take the Website Tour.” Just click on that box and go from there.
Not included in the tour, however, is some important new information I want to share with you that pertains directly to the very first topic I told you about this morning – falling bond prices and their impact on key stock sectors.
Here’s what to do to get that information right now.
Step 1. If you haven’t done so already, print out this email so that you have these instructions in front of you while I walk you through the next steps.
Step 2. In the menu bar near the top of the page, find the second item from the left – Charts & Tools.
Step 3. Roll your mouse over that item and pick the third item from the top – Quick Charts. (Note: If you haven’t logged in yet with the instructions I gave you above, this tool will not be available to you.)
Step 4. Near the top of the page, you will see a place to enter the symbol. Type in the letters NFI (the ticker symbol for Novastar Financial Inc.)
Step 5. Immediately to the right of where you typed NFI, you will see the box Go! Click that box and a chart should appear for the stock.
Step 6. Notice how this stock has plunged in recent weeks. Why? Because this company is in the business of sub-prime mortgages – highly sensitive to surging interest rates.
Step 7. To learn more about this company, find the box above the chart with the words “View Options” and select News. You’ll note that the company has been the object of class action lawsuits in the last couple of days.
This has hurt the stock, but rising interest rates remain the primary driver behind its decline. How do I know? Because other interest-sensitive stocks that have not been subject to lawsuits are displaying similar patterns.
Step 8. If you are interested in options, go back to the “View Options” box and select Options Chain. As you can see, there’s a wide variety of puts and calls available.
Step 9. Explore! In “View Options” select Chart again. Look below the chart and try changing the parameters. Compare this stock to other stocks or to an Index like the S&P 500. At the bottom of the chart, click on the word “here” to save your settings and produce similar charts for other stocks. In the View Options, check out the other features in this tool.
Then recognize that this is just ONE of the many tools available to you on our site. Also bear in mind that we post new commentary and information on the site hourly. Visit at least once each day. Take full advantage of it, in good health. There is no cost.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
Editor, Safe Money Report
Chairman, Weiss Ratings, Inc.
