Now THAT was ugly. Virtually every market tanked around the world, except for those that surge in times of worry and panic. To briefly recap:
Market Roundup
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index knifed through its lows from the August crash at 1,867 earlier today, before staging a partial recovery this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index also sold off sharply, but didn’t quite get through their intraday August lows at 15,370 and 4,292, respectively.
On the other hand, the Dow Transports and Russell 2000 Index bid adieu to those support levels a couple weeks ago. The Russell just hit the lowest since July 2013, while the Transports tanked to the lowest since October 2013. As a matter of fact, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) is down more than 11% year-to-date — less than three weeks since New Year’s Eve.
For its part, crude just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper. The U.S. benchmark price of a barrel of oil sank as low as $26.19. We haven’t seen black gold this low since all the way back in 2003. The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) has lost around 54% in the past year.
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| The yen has benefited from the panic, as have U.S. Treasury bonds. |
Where is all that money going? How about Treasury bonds! Long bond futures prices surged by another point and a half in the early going, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) hit its highest level in five months. Yields on 10-year Treasuries breached 2% to the downside.
The Japanese yen also took off like a rocket, pushing the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) to its highest level in a year. That’s because the yen is used to fund so-called “carry trades,” those in which investors borrow loads of cheap money in one currency and re-invest those funds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere in the world. When market panic sets in and asset prices plunge, they’re forced to unwind those trades before they get wiped out — a process that can send the yen surging in value.
I sincerely hope you were prepared for this carnage. My warnings in Money and Markets have been crystal clear dating back to last spring, and I’ve been sharing several protective strategies that you can use to insulate your portfolios from tumultuous times like these.
Or better yet, I hope you’re turning this market chaos into a huge profit opportunity. Subscribers to my Interest Rate Speculator service have had the chance to bag profit after profit since the summer — including two more hefty gains today on a vulnerable European bank and a reeling U.S. brokerage stock. As always, losses can and do happen, and past performance is no guarantee of future success.
In the meantime, where do we go next? Well, we’re obviously getting more and more oversold in the short term. That means we’re likely to see more rally and bounce attempts like we had Tuesday of this week and Thursday of last week. Indeed, we had an intraday bounce today, with the Dow rallying from minus-566 to minus-249.
| Â “Investors are taking advantage of bounce rallies to unload stocks at better prices.” |
But unlike the rallies we saw in the six-plus year bull market from 2009 through early 2015, those rallies aren’t turning into powerful V-shaped moves to new highs. Investors are instead taking advantage of them to unload stocks at better prices, or to re-load short positions.
You know when I last saw that pattern play out? During the bear markets of 2000-02 and 2006-08. Investors have clearly lost faith in the ability of funny money to prop up asset prices for more than short periods of time, not to mention confidence in the economic and inflation outlook.
So until that pattern changes, make sure you’ve shifted your thinking and approach to the markets. You can buy cheap, relatively safe stocks on big dips … but you have to remember to then follow up by selling into big rips. You can’t just count on a rising bull market tide to carry your shares to new highs and beyond.
If you’re more aggressive, go a step further. Hedge your downside risk or target downside profits by adding inverse ETFs or put options into big rallies. They can pay off handsomely in times like these.
Above all, please stay safe. We’ve seen two major bear markets in the past 16 years — bear markets that wiped out vast amounts of wealth. If this is truly the third great bear of this young century, you don’t want to suffer those kinds of losses again. Taking some protective steps will ensure you don’t.
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There was a lot of great discussion on the inflation vs. deflation fight, as well as the latest machinations in the Middle East online. So I’d like to get to as many comments as I can.
Reader Margaret H. said: “I agree that we are experiencing deflationary winds and that the economy is already in, or heading for, a recession. However, that does not mean that we won’t get inflation down the road. I think we need to be prepared for both.”
Reader J. said: “Deflation is more seriously entrenched than perhaps we want to admit. Fewer jobs for people mean less spending by all. No signs of that changing what with robotics coming on stronger each year.”
Reader Mike C. put the blame for the deflationary wave squarely on China, saying: “I have a hunch that China has much more to do with the deflationary storm that is brewing than most believe. China over the last two decades, and especially the last decade, has been on a building and spending spree like we’ve never seen before. One example is the construction of multiple large, essentially unoccupied cities.
“China also managed to stockpile cash over that same period, mostly through currency manipulation that allowed their very cheap goods to flood world markets. My hunch is that they overdid it. The consequences of all of this are the drops in demand for commodities and raw materials. We are just sniffing the early winds of what this deflationary period will bring us.”
But Reader Ivano pointed out that deflation does have its benefits. His take: “Bring it on! That is deflation. Lower fuel, food, housing, transportation, replacement components, recreation, medicines, etc. Phony S&P 500 inflation has not, and never will, employ the middle class. It only fills the wallets of the top one percent.”
As for the prisoner deal with Iran and the lifting of sanctions, Reader Chuck B. said: “Remember, it was the minority Sunni dictatorship of Saddam Hussein which launched the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980. He was probably egged on and partly financed by the Saudis, who wanted to hamper Iran’s competitive oil industry.
“And if foreign sailors appeared ready to endanger a U.S. base, I hope we would behave much as the Iranians did. Once they realized it was an innocent incident, they promptly behaved in a civilized manner and released the sailors and their boats.”
On the other hand, Reader Jim said: “Iran has been almost solely responsible for every war in the Middle East over the last 100 years. They simply do it by proxy by funding virtually all of the terrorists in the Mideast.”
And Reader Ted F. said: “Iran doesn’t have to start wars to stir up trouble. They have gotten into the proxy war game, supplying terrorists in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and a host of other countries. They supply weapons and money, same as the Saudis, but to the other side.
“The Iranians and the Saudis are supporting half a dozen brush wars and long-term terrorist activities. The rockets Hezbollah and Hamas fire into Israel either came from or were manufactured from Iran or Iranian designs.”
Lastly, Reader Lorenzo C. said any deal that keeps the U.S. mostly on the sidelines is a good thing. His view: “Our country has lost too many lives and too much treasure trying to control and police the world. If we can manage the Middle East situation with regional powers counter-weighing one another, this is way better than sending our troops into every conflict.
“A negotiated settlement is not a sign of weakness. Did we get all we wanted? No. But neither did the Iranians.”
Thanks for weighing in on these important issues. The re-emergence of Iran as a major oil exporter is clearly roiling the energy markets, and the cost of waging proxy wars against Iran is putting immense budgetary pressure on Saudi Arabia. From a financial markets perspective, that means more turmoil will be coming our way from the Middle East this year.
As for the deflation/inflation battle, it’s obvious which side has been winning so far. Now I’m closely watching to see if we get a major upside breakout in the Japanese yen, one that would likely coincide with a major breakdown in long-term interest rates. We’re right on the verge of those kinds of moves, and they would clearly signal that a fresh deflationary wave is washing over the markets.
Any other ground I didn’t cover here that you’d like to? Then don’t hold it in. Share your thoughts online in the discussion section below.
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Debt, debt, and more debt. By driving rates into the gutter, global central banks helped encourage massive “hot money” flows to risky corners of the world in search of higher yields. Now that liquidity is drying up, commodity prices are plunging, and foreign currencies are in freefall, those debts are coming home to roost, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Standard & Poor’s said emerging market-based corporations are defaulting on their debts at the highest rates since 2004. Roughly $500 billion has flowed out of EM countries in the past year, driving yields up for borrowers around the world.
The pressure on foreign, commodity-reliant countries is getting so bad, that Saudi Arabia just banned trading in options on currency forwards, according to Bloomberg. Investors had been using those cheap instruments to speculate on the possibility of the country abandoning its currency peg.
The Saudi riyal is fixed at a conversion rate of 3.75 per U.S. dollar. But investors know that peg is getting harder and harder to maintain. That’s because plunging oil prices are causing the nation’s budget deficit to blow out, forcing the Saudis to liquidate tens of billions of dollars in reserves to plug the gap.
Taliban terrorists gunned down 22 students, faculty, and guards at a Pakistani university in the nation’s northwestern region. The Taliban had previously attacked a school only 25 miles away in 2014, killing 145, and a separate suicide bombing earlier this week killed 11.
So what do you think about the emerging market debt crisis? How about the move by Saudi Arabia to ban bets against its currency – will it succeed or is it a desperate measure that’s doomed to fail? Any thoughts on the ongoing declines in crude oil? Let me hear about it in the comment section.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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You can point the finger of decreasing oil prices to the Obama administration.. They lifted sanctions on Iran who now will start selling oil on the open market and with all this excess supply oil has no where to go right now except one direction .
your comment makes no sense eagle 495 yea u know u go by other names as mike s and others anyways i remember obama saying he needed high energy prices for his wind and solar programs to work his words were i need gasoline to be between 9.50 to 12.00 dollars a gallon for his energy programs to work
In a bear market buy inverse assets! This IS a BEAR market!!
All the QE programs did was to put off the bear market that should have happen back in 2008!! Too big to fail! HA!
I think we should vote all incumbents out of office and start all over with fresh new members!! Then that is just my opinion.
You are absolutely right about QE delaying the carnage. It not only delays, it makes it worse by revving the economy up as high as possible prior to the inevitable fall. The economists at the Fed have never predicted a recession or a depression and their “fixes” are anathema.
Henry Joe
It will not take long for fresh new members to start realizing all the graft and power at their fingertips. After about a year the same levers of power will be pulled and your back to square one. Then election time rolls around and you throw the bums out and vote for party B and around it goes and where it stops nobody knows. I have watched this political merry go round for some 50 odd years. A good movie to watch is “Our Brand Is Crisis” it takes place in Bolivia but you can template the machinations of this movie onto the American scene or that of any countries political skull duggery. If your watching the GOP debates and the Hateful Eight you can see the correlation between the GOP contenders and the movie. Enlightening. Watching the GOP Hateful Eight makes one long to buy a island in the middle of no where.
I totally agree with Henry and Gordon . Not that Washington is incompetent as much as that they have only had one thing one their collective minds – how can I get more money into my next campaign fund; not, what is good for the country. Never look for any of them to do what is the best things for the country. Power does corrupt so Gordon is right there too.
Will someone PLEASE explain to me how all this debt, public and private, will be serviced without collapsing the entire economy. Do we have to wait until France, Puerto Rico and Illinois circle the drain before this problem is addressed? And please don’t tell me increased productivity. Even if we had a GDP growth rate equal to the Reagan years, the pain would be more than politicians could handle or the people would put up with.
The debt that has been run up in the last 7 years will NEVER be repaid. We will be VERY lucky if this country has the intestimal fortitude to service that debt even with interest only payments. Our politicians have played Santa Claus in the extreme for decades now….by borrowing and giving BEYOND WHAT WAS EVEN ASKED. The unreal management of our government has been on hyper drive in the recent past. When the federal government starts BEGGING people to take Food Stamps and other welfare to increase their rolls (even running radio ads), begging people to get on the dole that do not want such, you know the end is near.
We’ve had Politian’s for decades now. Maybe it is time for a businessman to fix this bloated bludging government up and throw the bums out.
I hear people complain that Trump had Liberal views in the past. Ronald Reagan was a Far Left Union activist in his youth. Jim
reagan was even a union leader. president of the screen actors guild. words and ideas similar to bernie sanders. old age turns many a liberal into a conservative.
Trump alluded to the great reset when he spoke of our $19 trillion debt and how we need someone who can settle this mess.
Trump or no Trump there will be a global bankruptcy reorganization in the next 1-5 years. Trump also mentioned that the lenderd he stiffed were not babies and knew the risks. Trump has the balls to threaten to stiff the banksters and get a fair deal instead of cowering as repo men from transnational capital expropriate all american property.
Trump knows how to deal with bankruptcy.
This problem has been growing for the last 100 years since the Federal Reserve was created to “save” American for the rich that is. Read up on Jekyll Island. If you think it can be fixed overnight forget it. What is happening now is like a run away train scenario. Run Away Train movie 1985. I think we are at the “run off of the track” part and heading for a wall. As you state debt debt debt and it cannot be deleveraged overnight. We have papered the world over with I.O.U.s Wimpy has now become our new role model.
Who is more powerful, the banker.with all the loot or the general with all the troops?
Trick question? There is a preponderance of evididence that Gen. Macarthur’s spies knew that tons of gold looted from Asia was loaded in warships sunken by Hirohito’s henchmen in Tokyo harbor and Mac made the Emperor an offer he coudn’t refuse.
Trump is no stranger to the Cosa Nostra.
He never put out a contract but the art of the deal is inclusive of Machiavelli & Sun Tze.
I have never done any selling or buying put/call options trading before, and am not clear how it even works. That being said, what investment can be bought out there to take advantage if the Saudis remove their Riyal from its Peg to the USD?; and how should one play it (i.e. buy a call option of what investment, (is there one?), if they remove their peg to the USD and the Riyal “slingshots”).
It is an remote, small market. There is a Saudi Basic Industries fund (#2010 on Google) that you could short (assuming that is your intention). But markets and currencies don’t always move in tandem so shorting the currency might be the best option, with a purchase of put(s).
Hawkeye
As your questioning options and stating your unsure of how they work make sure your on the right side of the slingshot.
you can short the TUR by buying a put because Turkey will circle the drain with it…
The Middle East is being hit with two coincident developments at once.
One is the collapse in oil prices, which puts every government in the region dependent on oil revenue in jeopardy. For example, Saudi-land needs about $85 a barrel to balance its state budget, while Iran needs $100. Those are prices we’re not likely to see again for a long time. Some countries, like Saudi Arabia, have built currency reserves and sovereign wealth funds to withstand a few years of price declines — but not forever.
It’s a game of chicken. Between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it’s pretty clear that Saudi Arabia wins on the pure economics of it. Iran doesn’t have anything like the reserves, or oil and gas infrastructure investment, it needs to last out such a punishing fight. That doesn’t mean Iran can’t keep up the pressure in other dimensions, like military adventurism and sponsorship of proxy wars, not to mention its missile and nuclear programs. That can last a while and do real damage to the region while it lasts.
The other factor is the vanishing of the US from playing a significant role in the Middle East. In pursuit of, on the surface, a narcissistic fantasy of understanding the Islamic world better than anyone else (which is clearly out of touch with reality), Obama has abandoned US allies in the region and gained little for it. (In reality, Obama hasn’t a clue what he’s doing, and he knows it.) Without the great counterbalancing and stabilizing force of US assurance to allies, all hell has broken loose, and it’s going to get worse. I doubt if the region will ever again be as stable as it was from the late 1980s to the early 2010s, at least not in our lifetimes.
D
Obama is not as stupid as you think. His eye is on the debt calendar and watching it zipping up to 20 trillion dollars. Yes you talk of the US stepping and playing a significant role in the Middle East but the reality is it takes money borrowed money and lots of it to play world policeman. Its time some of America’s “allies” got off of their duff and participated instead of crying “Wolf” and then sit back and wait for the Americans to fly to the rescue. Maybe “all hell breaking loose” is what that part of the world needs to get them to solve their own problems and get their act together. We have trying since the Crusades to solve this problem and guess what its just not working. Maybe like the market tanking its time for the US to cut their loses.
So Gordon,Obama is not stupid,so if you run yourself into massive debt(stupid mortgage,over drafts,loans,ie,)You cannot manage the debt plus you borrow more,what does that make you.Remember its on his watch,and 8yrs to fix something.He is a puppet,no balls and a yes man,controled by who,I dont know that either.What I do know is a way to run a economy is to get folk back to work and his results are lets say pathetic.Why want the job if cannot do it
I wonder if we should be considering import and extraction duties for oil, gas and coal. A surcharge of say $5/barrel of oil (or equivalent) could go a long way towards fixing our roads and bridges, and if further annually increasing surcharges (say 5$/barrel/year) were imposed, perhaps the money would be available for paying down our national debt.
Never work. They get trillions in tax money NOW.
The politicians and bureaucrats would steal anything new and spend it on other crapola that means nothing the minute it is spent. Case in point…..look at what the trillions spent in 2008-2010 got….money for unions and government agencies. Only 3% went into roads and real product.
Politicians promise everything to buy votes, but they deliver only to those who provide them with money.
Anyone who thinks the solution to our problems is giving those people more of our money needs to have their head examined. They waste half of what we give them now. I know fiscal discipline is an obsolete concept in Washington. Jim
Hey Chuck
Right on watch the movie “Our Brand Is Crisis” It takes place in Bolivia but has a universal political theme.
we need to take money out of politics.
If it were Romney that was president and was refraining from putting troops in the Mideast where they would be targets of every hate group out there, I bet you would be praising him for his cool headedness. For too many people out there , if it’s Obama’s policy, then it must be wrong.
Obama is probably correct in not sending more troops to the Middle East. His foreign policy blunders in Russia, Israel, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria were evident, however. I think even you would have to admit all of those could have been handled a lot better. Really, his foreign policy in its totality has been a disaster by any measure. Jim
You’ll have to explain to me exactly what those blunders were. Iraq and Afghanistan are quagmire legacies of the Bush era, Israel is an occupying country whose solution to all problems are military. Would you really have sent us to war over
the Crimea? The sanctions imposed by the US and EU have pretty much destroyed their economy. What exactly did we do wrong in Egypt or Yemen? Or Syria for that matter whose poison gas was removed.
He got the Iranians to give up their Uranium to Russia and get rid of their centrifuges and agree to regular inspections. Sounds pretty good to me.
I do not like Republican windbags but my mind toys with the idea of the Republicans winning the White House and watching how their foreign relations would play out over the next 4 years. Can anyone recommend any “War Games” that I can play on my computer where I blow the crap out of everything in sight?. All they would do is set the debt calendar spinning faster. Hands up people do you want more debt more young Americans killed for a foreign cause?
now that august s&p support levels have been broken, it’s obvious that the market is going to follow oil to a bottom. there’s very strong support levels at $20/bbl. also the supply & demand curve reach a balance in the second quarter. two big maybes i’m look at.
1000…..Agreed. The Dow did not break the interday nos. but I think the die has been cast. We are most likely going down. Still buyin?
i’m holding what i bought in august. i will buy more at some point.
$1000
I would not sell yet. China just threw more money in the pot . We have the EU, Japan, and our Fed with scheduled meetings next week. I expect more QE from Europe and Japan. The Fed may ” soft talk ” future rate hikes. The shorts will cover. I will sell into the rally. Ultimately, this market crashes.
i will not sell what i’ve bought so far. it stays in the market.
$1,000 gold
Don’t buy gold buy the market on the dips. Should keep you busy for the rest of the year. Before you start make a notation in your little black book to show your monetary balance before you buy your first tranche. Well its winter now and you should have quite a sleigh ride. Watch out for trees on the way down and wear a helmet. Maybe according to your 2nd amendment rights carry a gun just in case you run into a BEAR on the way down.
american stocks are the only thing that looks worth a hoot to me for now, while the oil producing countries look to be headed for depression. edelson and larson have gotten my guard up. a 1937 event is a real possibility all over again. the bear argument has merit, but i’m still a bull. we’ll know more after oil hits a bottom. as far as gold goes, it seems to be in its own little world ignoring everybody and everything as it continues the same exact downward channel of the past couple years. there’s a strong support level just under $1,000 that should at least give us some idea if gold has a pulse.
Hi Mike
It is interesting watching the weak hands unload. There are so many different positions clashing at the moment. Why is it that one hand panics while the other recognises a buying opportunity?
It could be down to patience v’s impatience
This is not a buying opportunity. It is a cash preservation opportunity.
that’s what everybody told me in 2009, gaeton. my reply was, it’s the opportunity of a lifetime.
It was an opportunity of a lifetime then. The Fed was able to pump up the equities with QE. Thing are different now. We all did well. Preserve your gains. If you are young it probably doesn’t matter. If you are my age it does.
Or Glorino, you don’t look that old.
i agree, glorino. i’m doing exact what you say. i’m 25% in s&p funds. i have another 25% ready to go but no hurry to use it. the other 50% will always remain in cash. i was 100% in in 2009, but i’m too big a coward to ever do that again.
Howard
Just be careful with all your hand predictions. Have you ever heard of sleight of hand. You could be sticking your “hand” out to catch a falling knife. I think the big boys are finally pulling the plug now to pocket all their ill gotten “gains” With all the bad and rubber numbers out there I think they realize the jig is up and they have roped in all the little investors/suckers that they can. Its time to close this Ponzi scheme skin the little guy and wait at the bottom for things to shake out blood in the streets. It will then be time to step in and start the cycle all over again. Its like a wash machine cycle wash, rinse and dry and around and around we go. This Ponzi scheme type of stock market has been playing out the same way for the last 50 years and the little guy just never learns. It makes me laugh you think your buying into the great American dream well your not. Its just a variation of the old Pump and Dump.
this may be a short-side pump & dump, not a long-side. when i hear guys like carl icahn and george soros sounding the bear alarm, i wonder why would two of the world’s greatest investors that i have to trade against be out to help me? the lower these guys can push the markets, the cheaper they can buy from us when we sell out of fear.
we’re near the top of the bull, but i’m betting it’s not over yet. i’m not worried about a recession now, but i do have my guard up for a possible depression. if we get on the other side of this correction ok, a recession is a ways off.
The retail investor is a subsidizer and stabilizer in the markets. Legislation for automatic 401(k) contributions and IRA contributions , ect( you can opt out) establish a known floor that instatutions need to Implement electronic trading and algorithm creativity. The worlds big boys play and society is the foundation that’s expendable. Is that the price we all pay in an “economic “World war for policy leadership? Is that a catch 22 or just a rock and a hard place?
Expect Saudi Arabia to link its Riyal to the Yuan. China is now it’s largest customer, and the country to which they have growing commercial links. It would make sense from their perspective to have more of a currency linkage.
Excellent opportunity to add to position indication as Jan. subsides so goes with the worst of it and another nice opportunity. By April its all over. No guts no glory..
Mike says buy on dips, sell on rips. In other words, trying to be an investor in this market is a losing game, since the dips are likely to be greater than the rips – always tending down until the bear market is finished. The only way to come out ahead is to TRADE. On the other hand, trading is a losing game for anyone without a beady eye and a fast draw. It is easy to get attached to a winning position until it suddenly turns into a loser.
The most likely winning positions at the moment is cash waiting for opportunity, hands bought in the dips and profits taken from trades. Long term capital gains from higher yielding plays are a help.
there’s an old saying: an investor is just a trader who’s underwater. my timing is so bad i’ve given up on trading the dips and just assume i’m going to be an investor every time i buy.
Even though gas is down, we are STILL being gouged at the pump!! Last time oil was this price per barrel, gas was HALF the price we are currently being charged! I know the government has added some tax along the way, but gas should be selling a LOT closer to $1.00 per gallon than it is!! So, what’s the excuse now??
‘Could be the high debt level the oil companies have taken on, and the fact they must look ahead to paying interest and redeeming bonds. They need to store up some rainy day funds, and can’t afford to pass on all the benefits of cheap oil.
Bonnie E
The excuse plain and simple is corporate greed. Why do you think the 1% percenters now control more money than all the rest of us 99% percenters. This is up from half a few years ago. Everybody is sticking it to you at every chance they get. Are you not starting to feel like a porcupine? Every day we run a gauntlet of grifters and the most dangerous at the moment is the stock market. We are almost not quite at the point where everyone will run and try to squeeze through an ever narrowing doorway. Kash is King even though it is funny money it still retains some clout. If you want to have nightmares do some more reading on China. Everybody piled in now everybody including rich Chinese want to bail out. Just try and not get whiplash watching the market over the next year.
Rents and fees and charges and snaller portions are still gouging consuners as oil iron and wholesake prices plunge back ti pre 21st century levels. The cat and mouse game continues until the millions playing musical chairs have to sit down on very few chairs and suddenly millions of cell phones dont logon to the money machines…..
bonnie,
the crack on oil is at an all-time high and the refiners are the beneficiaries. that won’t last forever.
In some countries, it could be a cold winter for those with no warm memories
It’s noteworthy that the Taliban is increasing it’s activities in Pakistan. They, and their ISIS and Saudi allies would LOVE to overthrow that country and get their hands on the couple of hundred Nukes that Pakistan already has. If that looks likely to happen, India could pre-emptively invade. Could that begin WWIII? Maybe.
A “beady eye and a fast draw” may apply to lots of situations.! (<:
Mule
I think WW3 is coming anyway, one way or the other. WW2 saved us from the depression of the 30s. I don’t know how WW3 might play out? )<:
Mule
I’m hoping we have far too much sense to blow each other up. Better to keep hostilities regional and supply arms to those that want to defend and fight.
One thing for sure Mule it will definitely give you religion. That is where people turn when they are dying and all is lost. Its called soul insurance. Like investing you have to cover all the bases.
there’s no atheists in foxholes.
Sell your biggest winners go by some wine or alcohol sit by a nice warm fire and wait till spring don’t leave any of your hard earned money in their so someone else can steal it from you. If you’re in and out of the market you still pay commissions and sometimes your order takes to long to get in and you lose more I have my drink and just waiting till we bottom out
With Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran all needing 80 dollars or more per barrel for oil, how long do you think it will be before one of them realizes that the simple answer to their problems is to bomb the others oil facilities, either directly or more likely by proxy.This would rocket prices well above $80 within minutes.
Bingo
From depression to war all over again
I have to say, never in my lifetime have I ever seen our country attacked on so many sides. We have severe, unsustainable and ever increasing debt. We have a population that has learned to “take” what is given by the government in its massive, vote buying redistribution policies. They have forgotten how to “earn” a living and moreover no longer have the drive to do so. We are so politically correct that we can’t even enforce our boarders. Crime is rampant, both white and blue collar, and terror attacks are ever increasing. Our government has chosen to outright lie to us about everything from job numbers, the real dangers that surround us, as well as turning us against each other by driving deeper wedges between us. The people themselves have turned into something for nothings. Our courts are overloaded with people trying to file suit for this and that worthless claim in the hopes of making off with a quick path to being rich. Nothing is off limits, there is no respect for each other or each other’s rights and opinions. Our fore fathers weep for us and what we have become. It is truly an unsustainable system. Not only will our monetary system fail as we are seeing the start of the unstoppable process, but our society will also collapse once these pressures are exerted from the economic collapse. You can see that already starting to unravel as well. This is all truly the result of lack of leadership and the true loss of American Exceptionalism. To few trying to do the right thing. That 100% effort that use to be the “standard” of being an American is gone as is being proud of what you have done. Lie, cheat and steal and do “ONLY” the bare minimum to get by is now the operational mode of the average American, and don’t forget during the process make absolutely sure you have someone else to blame for your lot in life. Like I said before, our fore fathers as well as God weeps for us. I weep myself and ask, what have we allowed to happen? We have allowed our political system to become so corrupt that it is not “We The People”. It is “We The Vote Buyers”. The truly sad part is, the cattle have responded to the call. We use to be much smarter than to let others drive or nudge our views and beliefs. God help us all, we won’t solve this! Our problems far outweigh common sense. It is completely out of our hands now!
Not quite out of our hands yet Gonzo.
It is time to stand up and be counted. Our people need genuine, honest leadership. Let’s take it on the chin now and rebuild this place. It’s time to grab our country back
Howard, I only wish it were that simple. Once we have “honest leadership” then what? The systemic problems that have been built into America by the government are ir-reversible. They have conditioned too many to be dependent on them. This includes the Social Security Class as a small example. Before you blow your top, I too have paid into this program all my life. This is an example of too broken to fix. If Social Security had been set up correctly by the government it would not be classified as an “Entitlement Program”. It should have never been set up to begin with. 1st Strike. They determined that they needed to Herd the cattle to “save their money”, because we were not smart or intelligent enough to take care of ourselves. In reality, it was nothing more than another way to take money and leverage a new ultimate power grab. Albeit a true statement for some that they could not take care of themselves in their elder years, but not true for all of us by any means. Most Americans know how to take care of themselves and their family without the guiding hand of a money and power hungry politician. But I digress. Now we have Social Security to take care of us in our elder years. It is LAW! Now for strike 2. The program should have been set up as an individual account and maintained accordingly. In other words, whatever is paid into the account by you and your employer would be in YOUR account. Not in a general account and you get a piece of paper saying what has been paid in over your lifetime. Then they set the withdrawal guidelines and guess what, the guidelines should have stated that you have access to your money at age 62 let’s say. And you will receive YOUR money that you paid into the system up until it is all gone. After that, you are on your own again. If you die early with a balance in the account then it goes to your beneficiaries account as you specified, to give them a leg up. But the point is, it was always your money and never should have been pilfered by the guiding hands. Oh, I will just call them what they are, thieves. Pretty simple concept right? But that is not how the ultra intelligent guiding ones set it up. They helped themselves to your money and filled your account with IOU’s that frankly are not worth the paper they are printed on. And they did it all to buy votes. Control and power! Case Closed. Strike 3. So now the chickens have come home to roost. It’s time to pay the people they took the money from. And then the intelligent ones found out, there is no money! The account has been plundered like a drunken sailor buying drinks on shore leave, except the sailor got something for his lavish spending. We got jack!
Now time for the ultra smart ones to further qualify the program to make you get less and less of your money, and if you make to much then they have even proposed not letting you get any. They really are hoping that you die without collecting your money and then they can tear up the IOU’s. What a system! The only way to salvage this gross redistribution of wealth scheme at this point is to raise the qualifying age for benefits up to 95. That and that alone will salvage this program in its current form. Our government proposed and implemented a ponizi scheme that Bernie Madoff couldn’t have thought of because he was outside the law. They wrote the law to legally take your money, spend it elsewhere and blame you for not paying enough into the program to keep it going. For any “honest” leader to get on the podium and tell the American People that the Ponzi scheme has run its course and is not working will enrage how many people? I don’t think that guy would even make it home alive. As you can see, the hole that has been dug is so deep we will never see daylight. The collapse and reset is the only end to this. I don’t like it either, but I see no other resolution. This is but one problem that I have covered here. Just one! Like I said earlier, all our problems are well past common sense solutions. That opportunity passed us long ago. All that is left now is to see how long this facade will continue. They have to keep lying to us. If they told the truth the country would literally come apart at the seams. I fear the repercussions of this stupidity will be quit brutal. I pray I am wrong!
Howard, I only wish it were that simple. Once we have “honest leadership” then what? The systemic problems that have been built into America by the government are ir-reversible. They have conditioned too many to be dependent on them. This includes the Social Security Class as a small example. Before you blow your top, I too have paid into this program all my life. This is an example of too broken to fix. If Social Security had been set up correctly by the government it would not be classified as an “Entitlement Program”. It should have never been set up to begin with. 1st Strike. They determined that they needed to Herd the cattle to “save their money”, because we were not smart or intelligent enough to take care of ourselves. In reality, it was nothing more than another way to take money and leverage a new ultimate power grab. Albeit a true statement for some that they could not take care of themselves in their elder years, but not true for all of us by any means. Most Americans know how to take care of themselves and their family without the guiding hand of a money and power hungry politician. But I digress. Now we have Social Security to take care of us in our elder years. It is LAW! Now for strike 2. The program should have been set up as an individual account and maintained accordingly. In other words, whatever is paid into the account by you and your employer would be in YOUR account. Not in a general account and you get a piece of paper saying what has been paid in over your lifetime. Then they set the withdrawal guidelines and guess what, the guidelines should have stated that you have access to your money at age 62 let’s say. And you will receive YOUR money that you paid into the system up until it is all gone. After that, you are on your own again. If you die early with a balance in the account then it goes to your beneficiaries account as you specified, to give them a leg up. But the point is, it was always your money and never should have been pilfered by the guiding hands. Oh, I will just call them what they are, thieves. Pretty simple concept right? But that is not how the ultra intelligent guiding ones set it up. They helped themselves to your money and filled your account with IOU’s that frankly are not worth the paper they are printed on. And they did it all to buy votes. Control and power! Case Closed. Strike 3. So now the chickens have come home to roost. It’s time to pay the people they took the money from. And then the intelligent ones found out, there is no money! The account has been plundered like a drunken sailor buying drinks on shore leave, except the sailor got something for his lavish spending. We got jack!
Now time for the ultra smart ones to further qualify the program to make you get less and less of your money, and if you make to much then they have even proposed not letting you get any. They really are hoping that you die without collecting your money and then they can tear up the IOU’s. What a system! The only way to salvage this gross redistribution of wealth scheme at this point is to raise the qualifying age for benefits up to 95. That and that alone will salvage this program in its current form. Our government proposed and implemented a ponizi scheme that Bernie Madoff couldn’t have thought of because he was outside the law. They wrote the law to legally take your money, spend it elsewhere and blame you for not paying enough into the program to keep it going. For any “honest” leader to get on the podium and tell the American People that the Ponzi scheme has run its course and is not working will enrage how many people? I don’t think that guy would even make it home alive. As you can see, the hole that has been dug is so deep we will never see daylight. The collapse and reset is the only end to this. I don’t like it either, but I see no other resolution. This is but one problem that I have covered here. Just one! Like I said earlier, all our problems are well past common sense solutions. That opportunity passed us long ago. All that is left now is to see how long this facade will continue. They have to keep lying to us. If they told the truth the country would literally come apart at the seams. I fear the repercussions of this stupidity will be quit brutal. I pray I am wrong!
Gonzo
Deep in the heart of each one of us is a memory of what this country stands for and was built on and the values we hold as a nation. There is a place for each of us, who are sick and tired of politicians promising stuff and leaving a mess behind. I believe in this country and we as a people are better than this. A time will come soon to change direction and rebuild the things that made us great, with a sense of fairness, justice and a hand for those in genuine need. Stay positive my friend.
I will try Howard. If I am right, and I hope I am not, but just in case, be prepared as well! It only makes sense to prepare for the worst and at the same time hope for the best. Take Care my Friend. God’s Speed to you and your family and God Bless us all!
Gonzo.
Excellent observation. You hit the bullseye. This is one of the best commend.
XLNT comments Gonzo and you too Howard.
Mule
The collapse is on its way, and the take over of America, of the world.
Why is it that Americans let these idiots take you time and time into war, whats a matter with your voice?
Curiosity Item:
According to Glassdoor, the top job for 2016 is Data Scientist. ‘Sounds reasonable in our tech heavy environment
Second is Tax Manager. That tells us something about government interference with our livelihoods, I guess.