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I was born in 1946, the year that ended a half century of financial turbulence and began a new era of financial stability.
Had I not been mentored so closely by my father, the only person I know who predicted the banking panic of the 1930s, I would never have learned the true meaning of rampant deflation.
And had I not been raised in Brazil from the age of six, a country that repeatedly destroyed its own currency, I would never have witnessed the real impact of rampant inflation.
Today, thanks to those two life experiences, I am not complacent about the intense economic dangers we face. I have little tolerance for business as usual in Washington. And, unlike many of my generation going to the polls tomorrow, I do not underestimate the urgent need for unwavering leadership in the face of economic adversity.
I’ve seen what it takes to lead a nation through the landmines of an economic crisis. Like in war, the commander in chief needs to make choices that can often be very unpopular in the short term. And like in war, firing the big guns too soon may merely cause an avoidable escalation.
Plus, I’ve analyzed the proposals of every viable candidate for president — regarding the federal budget, the dollar, the economy and more. My conclusions:
Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain is fully prepared for what lies ahead. No one is.
But in the unusual twists and turns of their earlier life trajectories, I see the roots of moral fiber and the building blocks of personal fortitude that will be absolutely essential in the next four years.
Barack Obama experienced, first hand, the hardships of a third world country, the pain of parental separation and the daily challenges of growing up in a society still adjusting to a new multiracial identity. As president, tough economic times will not shake him.
John McCain was prisoner of war for five and a half years. He suffered prolonged isolation, torture and psychological abuse for a period longer than the term of an American president. Any duress during an economic crisis will be mild by comparison.
My personal recommendations:
If you vote Republican, choose John McCain. Steve Forbes, the nation’s leading proponent of tax reform, says “John McCain’s pro-growth plan to cut taxes, stop wasteful spending and reform our healthcare system will secure our nation’s prosperity for generations to come.”
If you vote Democrat, go for Barack Obama. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, the leading inflation fighter of our era, says that “it is only Barack Obama, in his person, in his ideas, in his ability to understand and to articulate both our needs and our hopes that provides the potential for strong and fresh leadership.”
And if you’re independent, vote for the person you feel is least prone to buckle under the weight of falling popularity, the most willing to ultimately defend the U.S. dollar, and the best able to steer us safely down the narrow middle road between rampant deflation and rampant inflation.
Best wishes,
Martin
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Editor’s note: For the benefit of the tens of thousands of new readers who have joined Money and Markets in recent weeks, I am adding a few words about the author.
Born in New York and raised in the interior of Brazil from 1952, Martin Weiss returned to the U.S. to attend college in 1965, founded his own investment research firm in 1971, and received his doctorate in cultural anthropology from Columbia University in 1994. He is the President of Weiss Group, Inc., which includes his original research company, a money management firm and a school for gifted children.
Martin’s father, Irving Weiss, dedicated his life to public efforts to defend the U.S. dollar, mobilizing millions of Americans to help Dwight D. Eisenhower balance the federal budget in 1959. Similarly, Dr. Weiss has dedicated the last two decades to defending the average investor through his publications and public service efforts.
Dr. Weiss is Chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that promotes fiscal- monetary responsibility. He is the author of two New York Times business bestsellers and is fluent in eight languages.
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Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson, Nilus Mattive, Tony Sagami, and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include John Burke, Amber Dakar, Adam Shafer, Andrea Baumwald, Kristen Adams, Maryellen Murphy, Red Morgan, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Julie Trudeau, and Dinesh Kalera.
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