 |
The mainstream media is abuzz over President Trump’s prime time address to Congress last night. Everyone has been eager for details about his tax, spending and other domestic policy proposals.
But in reality, it’s Trump’s foreign policies that will have the biggest impact on markets over the next four years.
If you have been following my analysis for some time, then you know I’ve warned repeatedly about the war cycles ramping up at the same time many other social, political and economic cycles are converging for the first time in more than 80 years.
Outside of my extensive writings and warnings however, you don’t hear much about this issue in the mainstream media, at least not yet. But that’s about to change in a big way.
Mark my words, the rising tide of the war cycles will be a hot-button issue in 2017 and beyond. And you need to be prepared now for the big impact this issue will have on financial markets. Here’s why …
|
If there ever was a time to use leverage, THIS IS IT! The fact that these cycles have been so amazingly accurate over the past 80 years gives me an enormous amount of confidence right now. So much so, that I’m not going to be content to settle for ordinary investments. Read more here … |
For hard evidence of the rising war cycles, look no further than President Trump’s plans this week to boost U.S. defense spending by 10%, an additional $54 billion in his very first budget proposal.
Just last month Trump went on the record saying: “We will be substantially upgrading all of our military … offensive, defensive, everything, bigger and better and stronger than ever before … nobody’s gonna mess with us, folks, nobody.”
In response to Trump’s plan, Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, argued the spending increase isn’t nearly enough to cope with “a world on fire.”
Welcome to a brand-new arms race folks, only this time it’s not so much Moscow that Washington is taking aim at … it’s China!
Make no mistake, Trump’s defense spending proposal is a direct challenge to Beijing’s own military buildup. In fact, China’s military is likely to receive a significant funding increase of its own next month when Beijing’s next defense budget is unveiled.
China has consistently boosted its military spending year after year with double-digit increases over nearly two decades. Its navy has been the biggest beneficiary as potential conflicts loom in the East and South China Seas.
 |
| Trump’s defense spending proposal is a direct challenge to Beijing’s own military buildup. |
In fact, Beijing has pledged to boost the size of its naval fleet aggressively to 350 ships by 2020, including new missile destroyers, submarines, guided missile frigates and aircraft carriers.
In short, China is dead set on checking U.S. dominance of the high seas in the Western Pacific, which Beijing considers its own sovereign territory. And this isn’t just a U.S.-China arms race, either. Washington is encouraging our allies in the Pacific to join us in the buildup.
Japan just approved a $43.5 billion defense spending plan in December, in part to boost maritime surveillance around the waters of the Japanese-controlled Senkaku islands, also claimed by China.
However, the bigger flashpoint of them all is in the South China Sea: the disputed Spratly Islands, where China claims sovereignty, a claim disputed by Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.
Not surprisingly, Vietnam and the Philippines have likewise increased their military spending dramatically in recent years amid the ongoing territorial dispute with China.
Vietnam is likely to further increase military spending to $5 billion this year and up to $6.2 billion by 2020, according to analysts.
|
My New Guide to Buying and Storing Gold Bullion With world markets gone mad and political instability rising, gold has become the “must-have’ asset for many investors. But with the demand for gold rising, scammers are on the rise and the market for gold has become treacherous for those who choose to go it alone. Now you don’t have to. My brand-new briefing is packed with strategies and secrets that I’ve amassed in nearly four decades of trading gold and silver including…
For a limited time only you can get a copy of this report for only $49! And it comes with a 100% Money Back guarantee. |
And the Philippines upped its defense spending this year to $2.76 billion, an increase of about 18%.
A new arms race is underway, the likes of which has not been seen since the darkest days of the Cold War. Last month I briefed members of my Real Wealth Report with all the details, including ways to profit from the new arms race.
Bottom line: If you’re a student of history, as I am, you’ll realize a confrontation is inevitable.
Five hundred years ago, the Spanish ruled the sea lanes to the riches of the New World.
Two hundred years ago, Britain’s Royal Navy ruled the waves … and the key trade routes around Africa to India and East Asia.
Since WWII, it’s been the United States Navy that has ruled the seven seas, but in the 21st century, inevitably China will not only become the world’s biggest economy, but will be a dominant force to be reckoned with in the Western Pacific and around the world.
Best wishes,
Larry
Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader.
Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.
{ 34 comments }
Yes, the arms race has started and in full flight. However, it’s not China that is responsible, nor the President but the State Dept (imo) fueled by Hilary Clinton and her spat with Russia and her desire to engage Syria. Of course, Europe – Briton/ France and NATO followed suit. Most is Hilary’s legacy – like Lybia, Egypt, and her support for the war with Iraq. All of these the biggest disasters in US history. Trump knows this and will not start a war but become engaged if any ‘real’ threat to the US. He does not want to be policeman of the world – unlike Bush Jr and H Clinton.
That’s Britain and Libya old fruit
You mean the Bush/ Cheney wars ,based on false information of WMDs . Let’s face it anyone with half a brain would know if Sadam had WMDs , he would have used them . So Bush/Cheney knew he didn’t have any WMDs. That’s why we have. Ever invaded anyone who had WMDs . The arms race started under Reagan / Bush . And has never ended .
Anyone with half a brain does a little research before he shoots his mouth off.
“One way or the other, we are determined to deny Iraq the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to deliver them. That is our bottom line.”
President Clinton, Feb. 4, 1998.
“If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.”
President Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998.
“[W]e urge you, after consulting with Congress, and consistent with the U.S. Constitution and laws, to take necessary actions (including, if appropriate, air and missile strikes on suspect Iraqi sites) to respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq’s refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs.”
Letter to President Clinton, signed by Sens. Carl Levin, Tom Daschle, John Kerry, and others Oct. 9, 1998.
I have dozens more quotes from Dimocrats who were fully ‘on board” with Sadam’s WMDs.
By the way, he did use his WMDs on his own people. The Dimocrats and the MSM have been lying about it ever since, brainwashing the dimwits to further their agenda.
Larry says he is a student of history. He also says you need to have a global view in stead of a narrow one, look at global capital flows. Sounds all very logical. However, I find that very hard to believe in Larry’s case, who said (in a mail a couple of weeks ago) more than once Israel was a NATO member. Well, you miss a basic understanding and knowledge if you claim that Israel is NATO member. We would have had WW III and IV etc. if that would have been true (an attack on 1 member is an attack on all!). Imagine Turkey defending Israel when it was attacked decades ago by Syria and Egypt. Just absurd.
You may have forgotten Israels attract on the USS Liberty , in 1967 when they killed 32 of our sailors and wounded over one hundred of our troops. It was an act of WAR that was covered up . And our crews of the Liberty was sworn to secrecy by then president Johnson. Check it out .
Yeah right…Israel declared war on the U.S. with that accident (or as you say, act of war). Declaring war on the one ally you can depend on and the one ally that feeds you $3 B per year would have been absolute suicide.
Larry, if you see a confrontation between US and China, where are you going to be when it happens.
Larry,
In terms of the War Cycles can you do a 7 year forecast (through the Presidential Election of November 2024),and not just a 4 year forecast so we can get a better feel for how things may shake out in the medium term. So what happens between 2021-2025?. You have indicated in the past that after 2020-2021 the War Cycles remain elevated well into the mid 2020’s. What exactly does that mean after they peak in 2020/2021?. Will we still be involved in ongoing wars circa 2022, 2023, 2024 after they begin circa 2020-2021 or before?
Thank You
men at war. never ending conflict. 8000 years of bloodshed. are we dummies?
no we are not Dummies !
yes we are Dummies if we believe for a moment that ordinary People want War.
Its the rich and greedy for Power scum that must have wars to make Money.
and we wont be able to stop it. but maybe it will happen if they get tooooo greedy.!
Nope. It will not change until all men and women live spiritual lives.
ron ,
the answer is yes . And every politician thinks he is the King – Trump included .
How and when will this effect GOLD??
There is no doubt that tensions are high, especially with China and Russia. Is the US really in a position to enter into a war. We are in debt up to our neck and the countries that have loaned us money to keep us afloat are bailing out of our treasury investments at an alarming rate.
President Trump wants to rebuild our military as a deterrent to aggression. If the funds can be found to do this it will still take years to come to fruition. I am 100% behind the ideas that have been presented. I just hope that conditions allow the ideas to come to pass.
I hope everyone watching President Trumps’s speech noticed the only time everyone got up to clap including the democrats was when the topic moved to killing people, increasing the military, and taking the war to the enemy. The democrats hate Trump but when it comes to getting in on the killin, they want in!
It is intolerable that a madman in NK controls ever improving nukes and missiles. The lraq War was a practice run for the 2nd Korean War to execute lightening-fast shock and awe and present China with a fait accompli before NK and China become too strong.
WHAT COLLAPSE REALLY WOULD LOOK LIKE
N. Korea has the second largest standing army in the world today. (China has the most troops, by far ). Now, how is a relatively small American detachment posted at the North Korean Border going to hold back the “Barbarian Hordes” ?. Its sounds like a savant’s (wet) dream, not practical (military) reality. Crazy Kim can easily pick the time and place, as any aggressor if and when HE wants to ( after getting the “green light” from China ). Then we have to react, not respond.
So, in that event, about the only workable way to stop a superior force in numbers swarming you is to use the Nuclear Option: Tactical Nuclear Weapons. Then, the potential exists to quickly escalate into a world war (III) with a nuclear first strike in concert with ally Russia to knock-out the U.S. military and our communications and electrical grids, as well. ( Aided by traitorous fifth columns within the U.S. Federal Government, a.k.a. “Deep State”).
Existing Standing Orders from former President Bill Clinton for U.S. Nuclear Sub Commanders since the 1990’s is not to “launch on warning”, but to first wait and absorb a nuclear first strike on American Soil ( Capt. Joel M. Skousen, retired, USMC). Hundreds of Millions of U.S. urban civilians would probably die from disease, starvation, and crime within 6 months if that were ever allowed to occur. It sure might.
” Cry havoc and Let slip the DOGs of war” Oh ya. Our lust for war is in Our Bones . We teach our children the glory of war and how great it is to die for our country . We start with cowboys and Indians.” The only good Indian is a dead Indian ” good old Gen Custer . Now we have blood , guts and lust video games . And when we send a drone into a country ,( something we hanged the Germans for at Nuremberg.) we have are own blitz going on. But so do all other countries honor those who died , so the fat cats could live in oppulance and splendor.
“Your job isn’t to die for your country….Your job is to make some other sonofabitch die for his country”….George Patton
Is this ramping of control over the seas gonna lead to exchange controls. Restrictions on international capital flows, official intervention in forward markets, multiple exchange rates, and other financial and monetary restrictions imposed by a nation.
At the end od WWII the victorious U.S.A. was in a unique and never again to be repeated position to impose its will to disarm upon any other dissenting country in the entire planet.
As a democracy America couldn’t bring itself to act like Hitler’s Germany or Hirohito’s Japan in order to WIN THE GLOBAL PEACE and establish a new,democratic world order immensely beneficial to mankind. So Russia and China were gradually allowed to become superpowers and a myriad of other countries are now in possession of immensely powerful nuclear arsenals too. The conclusion is all to simple: if you cannot win the peace, then WAR is always the inevitable outcome! China’s actions are nothing but a carbon copy of Japan’s actions in the ’30 ies which led to Pearl Harbor! It’s not IF but WHEN will China strike!
Luciano Salvati
To be honest it was Russia that won WWII . We defeated Japan , But Russia defeated Germany. And lost millions of lives doing it and the good old reliable Russian winter . Ask ol Napoleon at the battle of Borodino Field .
Larry: You are greatly appreciated here by me. It has been said that “you can tell when a brilliant man comes along because he agrees with you.” Back in the late ’80s and early 09’s I wrote that when the power leaves here (U.S.A.), where will it go? My answer then was,…China. But i didn’t get the word out,… you are. Thanks again. Dr.Jack
METERED RESPONSES TO GROWING GLOBAL THREATS
The World you picture here is not likely to fully emerge in reality until post 2032. Its a work-in-progress for both sides until such a time as our “number is up”. Everyone has to deal with death at an individual level. No point in getting too far ahead of things. All in good time. China will challenge us before then, no doubt.
Hopefully, we will have the military expertise and leadership to respond with appropriate force, not just soft policy such as “sanctions” or public rebuke. We no longer can afford ill-fated if not noble foreign policy such as “nation building” ( as in Iraq ). America now must manage things better all around and conserve our resources as best we can for when we really will need them. The U.S. government must carefully pick its fights.
What happened to the correction in stocks Larry mentioned a few months ago? Never happened. Gold? Not much of a move considering the reflation trade.
Obviously, war cycles don’t mean much. Stocks continue ripping in spite of all the troubles.
When does it end?
Larry;
In a recent confrontation the Philippine Navy chased away units of the Chinese Navy. That’s like the school bully being faced down by a 90 pound asthmatic freshman. That said, 10% of the world’s fish are in the South China Sea and China is going after as much as they can get. Almost 1 billion Chinese in the heartland live on 2-4 dollars a day. Empty store shelves and un-affordable food represent an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party.
The closest any of the mainstream press is to reporting about this is focused on two points:
1. One of President Trump’s key advisers is a fan of the book, “The Fourth Turning,” which predicts a period of major upheaval during the next decade;
2. Sen. John McCain is saying that the proposed defense increases are “not enough.”
Al Gore is also a huge fan of The Fourth Turning and the authors’ previous books. In perusing their books, I think that the authors should have studied Socionomics. It too looks at cycles, as they do, but with more emphasis on the root cause: the condition of money and markets over cycles as influence by social mood.
and almost on cue as I previously said – first of March and metals will drop – gold into 11-1000 range and silver 15- 14 range
And the Fake News about the Russians did this did that is getting beyond crazy – enough already with this nonesense – It’s not a good idea to be on good terms with Russia ? No it’s better to provoke them into a war – lol now you know the real agenda
Thank you for your last ever report Larry…. You will be dearly missed here on earth mate. See you in heaven my friend..
Amen, James. What a shock to hear that Larry is now gone. This kind of talent will surely be missed.
Very sad to hear of Larry’s passing.Deepest condolences to his family and friends. he will be missed.
TRUMP’S SECRET: HE WANTS US TO BELIEVE TAXES ARE REAL
BUT TAXES CANNOT BE PAID WITH PAPER!
THE IMAGINARY REVENUE SCUM COLLECT MONEY FROM NO ONE!