Despite the lackluster dog days of summer trading in the financial markets setting upon us — nearly every single market on the board is now setting up for a series of major tipping points.
I told my Real Wealth Report subscribers all about the biggest of them all in my latest issue — including my specific recommendations on how to protect their wealth.
In today’s column, I will tell you what I am seeing — plus I’ll give you a road map to help you see for yourself where the fireworks are likely to begin in each of the major markets.
But before I do, let’s take a look at the major underlying fundamental forces at work.
I’m not going to bore you with all the details, nor am I going to address the stuff of corporate earnings, balance sheets, economic stats, etc.
For in the end, such fundamental analysis tells you only about the past, never about the future.
Instead, what matters most is the mass psyche of the participants in the financial markets and the forces they are truly responding to, each market in its own way.
I see two major fundamental forces at work impacting all markets:
First and foremost is the ramping up of the war cycles that I have been warning you about since late 2012. Â
Just like the 1930s, the U.S. dollar is showing very resilient strength, due largely to frightened capital fleeing from other parts of the world, especially Europe.
Make no mistake about it: The cycles of war that I have studied — starting in my college years 40 years ago — are real.
They are based on scientific studies of both domestic and international war data extracted from the annals of Raymond Wheeler’s studies on war and subjected to rigorous fact-finding.
They are as concrete as the seasons of the year, and they tell you, in no uncertain terms, when society is likely to be most predisposed to conflict, both domestically and internationally.
The fact is that the war cycles are now ramping up all the way into the year 2020, and with an intensity that even I underestimated.
From Russia and Eastern Europe … to Nigeria … to Iraq and Syria … Jordan … Israel and Gaza.
From the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) killing tens of thousands …
To China, brazenly occupying the South China Sea, the Senkaku and Spratly Islands, hunting down oil and gas resources, ready to wage war if need be …
To Ferguson and Baltimore, merely the beginnings of civil unrest in our own country.
To Texas’ latest move to petition the Federal government to move the state’s $650 billion of gold back to Texas and into a new just-approved vault to be built — a sure-fire sign of the state’s growing desire to secede.
And many of the other secession movements occurring herein the U.S. and in Europe.
Not to mention Greece, which will have to default, no matter what, setting off a major crisis in the hair-brained single currency and economic union experiment of Europe’s inept leaders.
And if all that isn’t bad enough, the war cycles won’t stop there …
Second, are the draconian financial war measures that Western world leaders in Europe, Japan and the U.S. are implementing because of their country’s bankrupt socialist policies and balance sheets.
I’m talking about how leaders in Europe, Japan and the United States wage war against their own citizens.
How they hunt down the rich and raise a battle cry for class warfare … which later backfires by widening the gap between the rich and poor, often driving the rich out of town, along with their companies and jobs.
How they target the average citizen, by camouflaging hidden tax increases (such as Obamacare) and gimmicky retirement programs that merely lock up your capital for their benefit.
How they brazenly transfer wealth from you to government coffers, such as Europe has done in the Cyprus haircut, forcing bank depositors to pay when banks fail …
How they openly endorse the IMF’s recent 10 percent wealth surtax on every citizen, already in the works in Europe … and also actively considered behind closed doors in Washington.
How they are now moving, especially in Europe, toward capital controls and even toward a cashless society.
Then there’s all that spying going on, all that trampling of basic rights to liberty, privacy and other basic freedoms — all of which remain in place.
It’s all part and parcel of how bankrupt empires fade away into the sunset, and we will be no different.
The crisis is picking up steam each and every day, and according to my models, will not peak until at least 2020.
And all of it is already beginning to have an astounding impact on financial markets.
The dollar, for example, remains poised for substantial new highs. Why? Because trillions are still flooding into our markets, the last bastions of capitalism.
Ironically, the strong dollar though will eventually prove to be the kiss of death for our economy and our government’s finances. It will usher in even more deflation, more hoarding of wealth, and make our government’s debt burden all that more unsustainable.
Although the dollar is poised for substantial new highs, it will ironically become the kiss of death for our economy and our government’s finances. |
And even more ironically, despite all the troubles the world faces, the U.S. equity markets will remain extremely resilient longer-term as rising civil unrest and international conflict throughout the world pours into U.S. equity markets.
Also consider crude oil. Think its bear market is over? No, it isn’t. Instead, its recent bounce is nearly over and a new leg down will soon begin.
Why? For a fundamental explanation, it’s simple. First, the global economy is weakening. Second, OPEC members are ramping up their war against our newly built energy supplies by flooding the market with their oil, looking to put U.S. shale producers out of business.
Then there are the agricultural and soft commodities, still caught in a severe slump, with new, much deeper lows ahead still for wheat, corn, soybeans, for bean oil, for coffee, sugar, cocoa and more.
Then there are the precious metals, which have not yet bottomed. But when they do bottom — in the not-too-distant-future — will be the buys of a century …
Not because of inflation fears, but instead, because the Western world governments of Europe, Japan and the United States will soon begin to crumble right before our very eyes.
Right now, my best advice is to watch my weekly system support and resistance levels, which I outline for you below:
For gold: Support lies at the $1,169 level, followed by $1,137, $1,127 and $1,119.
A closing below $1,119 should pave the way to a move to longer-term support levels, which stand at $1,027, $997, $925, $900 and $825.
Overhead resistance is formidable at $1,205 and $1,225.
Silver: Support remains at $15.26, a break of which will lead to a re-test of the $14.50 level. A close below $14.50 will lead to a new leg down to the $12.50 level.
Overhead resistance is formidable at $16.50 and $16.75.
Mining shares: Headed still lower. Do NOT buy any at this time.
Crude Oil: Resistance still at the $64 and $68 levels. Key support levels are still at the $44.80, $41.00, and $39.00 levels. A close below $39.00 will set off a plunge to the $30 level, where I expect crude oil to bottom, mid-2016.
U.S. Dollar, basis the U.S. Dollar Index, nearest futures (DXU5): Resistance at 100.90 and 101.75. Support at the 94.00 and 92.42 levels.
A close above 101.75 will see the dollar rocket higher, with my target becoming the 112 area.
Dow Industrials: The danger of a correction is still there. But, long-term, the U.S. equity markets are headed much higher.
MAJOR resistance still holding at the 18,500 to 18,600 level. Major long-term support — which will likely be tested before there is any major new move higher — at 16,300 followed by 14,800.
Best wishes, and stay safe …
Larry
{ 55 comments }
The fact is that the war cycles are now ramping up all the way into the year 2020, and with an intensity that even I underestimated.~ noted,.
I can taste it….
Glad to see your back, Manny. We missed you.
It is worth noting that the “socialist” nations of western Europe were doing fine with strong social services and high taxes – until the goldman sachs bankers got involved, staged a virtual coup in Italy and made loans they had no business making. To pay back bankers on the backs of impoverished workers is evil.
surely agree with Linda.. its bankers, especially big international bankers
and hedge fund managers .. and the lawyers who pimp for them. creating
mega distortions and failures like Lehman Brothers. INFLATION OF AIG
and its impact. Those who make zero effort to find the more truthful
scenarios are doomed to be their victims.. God Speed.
I can taste it…
So close, I can taste it…
Whatever happened to gold bottoming in the three must see videos of 2014. Guess you misjudged the bottom. Really gets me how your predictions never or rarely work out the way you say.
We’re so close, I can taste it, John.
For those of you who care; TODAY, 6/24/2015, was to be a major bottom for gold. If that major bottom did not hit 900, then there would be another major bottom in October. That October call did not take away from a major bottom called for TODAY. He called this in early April. If you think this guy knows what he is doing on market calls, then best of luck to you – you’ll need it. He also missed his call for May.
larry was right, his timing was off. there’s value in what larry says, but larry should know better than anyone that no one can time the market.
June 28 2014 Larry was sure the bottom was in see three must see videos. No mention of any resistance points at that time. Larry has been wrong for a long time. He doesn’t say a anything lately about $2500 per ounce and higher like he used to. Gold will go lower/higher which I do not know nor does anyone else including Larry. So close I can taste it. LOL.
BFD I second that what you wrote . I still got my notes from Larry’s write up on Feb. 6th 2015 – even with a ” Larry Chart ” it’s all there ” IT’S TELLING ME LOUD AND CLEAR TO EXPECT A FEB. PEAK IN GOLD FOLLOWED BY A FULL FOUR MONTH BEAR MARKET ( see ZSL must have a bundle ) ONE THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE GOLD TO NEW LOWS , WHICH WOULD BE RETESTED IN JUNE , SYNCING UP NICELY WITH MY LONGER TERM MODELS . ”
Why can’t Larry just say ” Sorry folks- I never learned to work with charts except in Kindergarten and I know they don’t work but you are all such nice and dumb people and I know what YOU want to hear – so I’m just writing what you want to hear . And I’m convinced that most of you have dementia already and you won’t even notice that there was no Feb. peak but a January peak and after 4 month of going down we are still not at $ 900 . Not even $ 1100 . But it’s coming – really it is – TRUST ME . “
TALK ABOUT CONTAGION!!! HEIDE AND BFD SEEM TO BE JOINED AT THE HIP? DON’T YOU HAVE ANYTHING ORIGINAL TO SAY???
BFD – Correctamundo! lmao.
As “they” say, even a broken clock is correct twice a day!
Only, Larry’s clock has no hands left!
bdf, heide, geo and mesphisto seem to be one in the same, as though they’re the same person with different identities. four wrongs make a right if everyone agrees?
Missed predicted gold bottoms: Jan 14, Jun 14, Jan 15, Jun 15. Larry just discredits himself when he gives these specific dates that bomb. But of course when he does eventually get one right he’ll be “shouting it from the rooftops.” Nevertheless he has been on the right side of the trade for the last 4 years, the bottom will probably happen by the end of the year and then the profit potential will be huge.
you sound a lot like bfd. i’ll bet geo and bfd are twins?
nanny – (from above) “Larry was right, but his timing was off.”? Are you kidding, timing is everything. Let’s see, it will be 90 degrees in Denver tomorrow at 9:00 PM. Oh, it happened at 3:00 PM; no problem, I was right – my timing was off. LUOL – that’s laughing uncontrollably out loud! Any other gems you want to share with us?
what turned you so hostile and confrontational, bfd? you used to be a positive guy.
Seriously, nanny (if you are actually not a troll). BFD is simply stating truth and facts. If you don’t like it, go elsewhere and stop stating falsehoods.
Hello Mr E,
Will miners bottom before gold? In what quarter of what year will gold bottom? When gold does bottom how quickly will it return to 1900$ or more?
Thank you
All these predictions, enough to make my head swim. If gold and silver is being manipulated how can anyone figure out what the next step is? Wishful thinking is all I see here & don’t trust in man.
Bubblehead….a good name I have to agree . You must learn something new here :
Gold only gets manipulated to the upside – the downside is a cycle trend . I hope it helps the confusion .
BFD – do you think he buying it ? lol lol
gold is not manipulated at all. silver is a much smaller market and has a much greater potential to be manipulated, but take a look at what happened to silver when the billionaire hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market by buying all of it. no way anyone has enough power or money to even budge a huge market like gold.
bfd, don’t you agree? heide needs your confirmation. what’s with you two? can’t you two think for yourselves?
mammy – Leaving a space before a ? is sign of higher intellect. Appears you don’t have that characteristic, as your “heide” is really “Heidi”. Will you try Amazon to buy “Spelling For Dummies” ? I made that question so that I could put a space before my question mark. What do you think ? Are you lol ? Do you find it interesting that people ask “were” advice on Larry’s website ?
Waiting on some wisdom from were ? Anything ?
heide leaves spaces after question marks too. is there a connection there, heide?
mammy – Leaving a space before a ? is sign of higher intellect. Appears you don’t have that characteristic, as your “heide†is really “Heidiâ€. Will you try Amazon to buy “Spelling For Dummies†? I made that question so that I could put a space before my question mark. What do you think ? Are you lol ? Do you find it interesting that people ask “were†advice on Larry’s website ?
you’re right bfd, my spelling is atrocious. i was born the daughter of a poor black share cropper and we didn’t have money for a spellchecker, let alone punctuation for intellectuals. that does not preclude the fact that you have been outed as using the same intellectual punctuation as hiedi. how could an intellectual like yourself make a glaring mistake like this and give up is cover ? and to think a dummy like me who can’t even spell could see it ?
Leaving spaces after a question mark is a big problem here ? You should see the spaces I have between my front teeth – now THAT is a problem .
Thanks for asking. I wanted to wait until mid July for confirmation but I’ll give you my thoughts now. We have most likely seen the high for the year in all markets. There is a chance that mid July might see some new highs – but only a slim chance. It’s down from here though – major slide by end Sep/mid Oct. But that isn’t the final low for commodities – that’s early 2016.
so i’m going to assume if your timing is wrong on this prediction, were, that we’ll all be seeing a post from bfd later this year about it, just like the reports we get from him on larry’s misses ?
did you notice i’m using intellectual punctuation now ?
looks like you forgot about greece, were.
no, I certainly did not. Why do you think that the cycles pointed to a high here that could be seen years ago?
you said a july high, were. so now you’re saying this was the high for the year, or it’s still coming in july?
Thanks, enjoy reading you.
mammy – You are too much ? This is really turning out to be more fun than I could ever have expected ? If you cannot tell the difference between a blogger sharing his thoughts and a duck (read quack) hawking subscriptions, then there is no hope for you ? Ya, I know, I put a question marks, I just couldn’t resist the temptation to draw your next comment out of you ? You are just too easy ?
all in good fun, bfd. adios amigo.
Any one ever hear of a Gold guru (balloon shooter) named Bo Polny ???? Larry is good compared to this guy. What does tell you.
WHYNOT PURCHACE REVERSE EFT GOLD MINING SHARES
I can taste it
Hi!, Patrons Of Money & Markets Et. Al.:
Does Larry really know what he is doing is OUR constant question on this forum? Well, Larry is a professional trader who knows how to make money off these markets in both directions buying (going long) and selling (going short) which in my opinion means he is very nimble personally in terms of directing his own personal trades or trades he’s set up through a brokers’ assistance account? He knows that the bottom line is caveat emptor which means buyer beware and places the responsibility for what happens to OUR personal investment funds lawfully speaking directly on nobody else’s shoulders but our own period and no matter what we may say about him on this forum. You can read this yourself dear reader, by reading the disclosure and disclaimer statements in Larry’s News Letter can’t you and then proceed with caution when using your own money to either speculate or invest? If you are beyond the age of accountability dear reader the responsibility for what happens to your money belongs with you and you alone doesn’t it? So, even though Larry’s reports are amusing and interesting, he is NOT legally in any way, manner or form responsible for what anyone else does with their own money!!
RUSS SMITH, CA. (One Of Our Woeful, Broke, Fiat Money Corrupt States)
resmith1942@gmail.com
I thought that ‘class warfare’ was evident in the 1% vs 99% issue. Some have been winning for a long time.
Big business and ‘conservative’ policies caused the U.S. Economic Collapse.
99.999% of social program monies go directly into local economies (small businesses,
groceries, garages, rentals, etc.) within 30 days. Conservatives want to lessen social program distributions across the board. More small businesses will close.
Russ Smith – Thanks for your statement of the obvious on buyer beware. The rest of it, you don’t seem to “get”. C’est la vie, my friend . . .
Hey Russ subscribe to gold and Silver Trader and then tell me what you think. I can taste it
How does capitalism work again?? Somebody invents something—he’s an inventor. Then somebody sets up a business around that—he’s an entrepreneur. Then come the people who do the work of making the item and selling it–called labor. But— The cash all goes to the first two who year after year get the cash. And labor also buys the product. So the inventor and the business man keep getting richer and richer as the hired help makes their wealth possible. Then when labor wants a fair share the inventor and the businessman moves the operations away or cries about how terrible things are that the tyrant labor wants to live a half way deent life on a share of the operations. Yes, that’s capitalism.
the opposite of capitalism is greece. which is worse?
Live a little – laugh a lot
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looks like you forgot about greece, were.
there something wrong with gold. With all this macroeconomic chaos, it should be going higher. Whether it’s being artificially suppressed, or it’s just organically weak, no one knows and it doesn’t matter, but it’s weak, and it looks like it’s going lower. I hope I’m wrong.