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Money and Markets: Investing Insights

Carlos Danger’s Gift to Investors

Boris Schlossberg | Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 4:00 pm

“Nothing stranger…
than an election game-changer…
coming from the emails of one Carlos Danger.”

— A tweet in the aftermath of the FBI Bombshell announcement last Friday.

If Samuel Beckett were to write the script for the 2016 election, he couldn’t come up with a more bizarre scenario than what reality has offered us. Both flawed candidates face allegations that could compromise them. And although the polls still give Ms. Clinton the edge, deep down everyone knows that the race is far closer than it appears to be and that election day could be full of surprises.

The markets, in the meantime, are in a state of suspended animation … showing little movement either way. As I noted yesterday on CNBC, no one is liquidating but no one wants to dip their toe in the water until they figure out how the election plays out.

Since currency markets trade 24 hours a day, they will be the first to react to any breaking news. A Trump win is perhaps the easiest scenario to handicap. Mr. Trump has been the wildcard candidate and markets have already shown that they will go into a tailspin because of the unpredictable nature of his personality and policies. The Mexican peso, which has become the unofficial proxy for this election, will no doubt drop hard — perhaps as much as 5% to 7% — as investors adjust to the new reality of “The Wall.”

Currencies will be the first to react to any breaking election news.
Currencies will be the first to react to any breaking election news.

A Trump win will no doubt cast a pall on all the economic activity south of the border and will force investors to quickly account for any disruption on global trade. Although the Chinese yuan is a controlled currency, it too may slip by 0.5% to 1.0%.

But the much greater hit will likely come for the Australian dollar, which will suffer from any contraction in demand from China.

Just last night the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark rates unchanged, issuing a relatively sanguine statement as Chinese factory activity increased at its best rate in 2 years.

A Trump victory, however, could send the monetary officials in Sydney scrambling. And they will likely cut rates in December, causing Aussie to lose 3% of its value very quickly.

A Clinton win will have much less dramatic effects as she is the candidate of the status quo and any positive reaction in the currency markets will be mild.

But perhaps the most interesting scenario to consider is the most likely one. What if the race is super close? What if neither side decides to concede? Markets hate uncertainty, but this would be chaos of gargantuan proportions.

Generally, in times of stress, investors run to the safety of the dollar, which tends to be the first stop of flight capital. But next Tuesday, the situation could be very different. Since the source of turmoil would be the United States itself, investors will very likely turn elsewhere — quickly bidding up the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc — which are always seen as safe-haven repositories of last resort in the FX market. Both could rise by as much as 5%, no doubt causing massive problems for both the Japanese and Swiss monetary officials who have been trying to weaken their currencies for months.

In fact, it’s not at all inconceivable to imagine that both Japan and Switzerland could initiate a negative-2% rate on deposits (meaning that at the end of the year, your 1,000 francs will be worth only 980). But investors will still flock to those currencies with all the abandon of teenage girls at a rock concert. In the 2016 election, that would be the perfect ending to a wild and a bizarre year in politics and markets.

Happy Trading,

Boris

Boris Schlossberg is a weekly contributor to CNBC’s Squawk Box and a regular commentator for CNBC Asia and CNBC Europe. His daily currency research is quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous business publications and newspapers worldwide. Mr. Schlossberg has written articles on trading for SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is the author of Technical Analysis of the Currency Market and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game, both of which are published by Wiley. Boris’ extensive experience in trading and developing momentum-based techniques provide the foundation for BKForex’s strategies.

{ 20 comments }

Bob Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 4:29 pm

You can’t make this stuff up any more…

Rod Serling, creator of the famed “Twilight Zone” show, could not make a living in todays’ TV land marketplace…

We need a TV wrestling match between Carlos Danger and the Lone Stranger ( Lone Ranger)…

Perhaps a remake of the Abbott & Costello skit, “Who’s on First – What’s On Second” would be good also…

My head hurts…

Nice writing though…

Joe Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 4:37 pm

“Mr. Trump has been the wildcard candidate and markets have already shown that they will go into a tailspin because of the unpredictable nature of his personality and policies.”

I couldn’t care less that the Wall Street criminals don’t like Donald Trump. Whatever his flaws, he isn’t a complete gangster like Hillary Rotten Clinton. Or are you saying the “markets” prefer a gangster to a real estate developer?

There is more to life than Wall Street and the Mexican peso.

Rob L Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 5:01 pm

you must be a Hillary fan by the way you diss Donald. “unpredictable nature of his personality and policies”. You apparently have not listened to him. The media is really slanted.

Robert Scott Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 5:28 pm

Your crystal ball must be better than everyone elses. You must have the patented speculation attachment.

James C Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 6:19 pm

Is the flight of capital into the USA, the dollarization of European Economies is this caused by the Leontief Paradox, this empirical finding that US import substitutes were more Capital intensive than US exports. This is contrary to Heckscher Ohlin trade model, which predicts that as the most K-abundant nation, the United States should import labour intensive products and export K-intensive products. Maybe the whole financial crisis in Europe has been caused the Maastricht Treaty. The treaty that called for the creation of European Monetary Institute as a forerunner of the European Central Bank and monetary union by the European Union way back in 1997.

jimmie Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 10:18 pm

Boris…your funny!

Clinton = Globalist
Trump = For the PEOPLE
Both flawed candidates really? Clinton has so much baggage its hard to begin to discuss.

Happy Trading…haha

billw Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:41 am

It’s you’re, not your.

Donald Minor Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 12:24 am

Truly a sad situation for planet earth and its people. The Amercian voters are about to elect a leader who cares for no one other than themselves. The year is 2016 and Americans have never been so stupid and unaware of facts. Those of us who are sane can only hope the laws of nature will save us.

Scot Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 2:20 pm

If Trump only cared about himself, he certainly would not have subjected himself to the critisism he knew would fly.

On the other hand, the Clinton hubris and corruption has no limits.

tito Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 11:57 am

Donald, I think you are 100% right. Its a sad moment

gordon Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 4:41 am

Nothing sticks to Teflon Don while Hillary is dying by the death of a 1000 cuts.

WasteLand Warrior Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 8:15 am

Thanks for setting my focus on the currencies I need to watch. I was just wondering where I should be looking as everything comes to a head…I’ll put them on my shortlist and focus on them next Tuesday as the results start coming in… It will be the Superbowl of Currency trading for sure! Time to top up my Currency Trading account and place my bets!

Dave Stokes Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 8:41 am

Boris, Are you saying a lying, crooked, stealing, corrupt person such as Hillary is better for our country? Can you imagine her having a free reign as President to be even more so. Screw the markets. We need to correct our country.

Eli Sunday, November 6, 2016 at 3:55 pm

As I said below, if she steals a few million, the US government won’t even notice the missing cash, and she might be taking it from lobbyists anyway, so the taxpayer doesn’t lose anything. A thief can still do a good job as a president.

Supersonic Scientist Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 11:19 am

“…Since the source of turmoil would be the United States itself, investors will very likely turn elsewhere — quickly bidding up the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc — which are always seen as safe-haven repositories of last resort in the FX market…..”

Interesting that you fail to mention Au/Ag as a potential safe haven.

I second this comment: “Screw the markets. We need to correct our country.”

My opinion is that a Trump Presidency will ultimately bump-up the markets as it (the Market) will react to the potential of a loosening of regulations which will in turn benefit businesses here.

F151 Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 12:07 pm

From the perspective of the market….it does not matter which of these persons is elected….we are topping with a complete wave count and this market will be going down seriously at some point within the next 6 months.

tito Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 11:59 am

Yeah..very likely

Hey You Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 12:25 pm

The USA is past peak. Look somewhere else for real progress.

Andrew P Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

Hillary’s election could be much more consequential, as she is most probably guilty of very serious crimes – crimes documented on Carlos Danger’s computer. Such a person would do anything to avoid being removed from office and going to prison for life, and the cleanest way out is to provoke a limited nuclear war with Russia. Then her crimes will get washed away in a sea of nuclear fire, as all the evidence is vaporized and the country is under military rule.

Lance Friday, November 4, 2016 at 2:38 pm

To cast Trump as a wild card is illogical, nothing would be more favorable to business than Trump’s plans, and nothing more dangerous to business than Hillary’s tax hikes, Obamacare hikes, and wage increases. Not to mention how the Middle East has been terrorized and it is spreading to Europe and to a town near you.

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