|
||||||||||||||
All eyes have been focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve lately. But European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did his best to grab the spotlight this morning.
Specifically, Draghi didn’t cut interest rates. He didn’t launch additional QE. And as I mentioned yesterday in Money and Markets, even if he did, it’s not enough to overwhelm the “QT” we’re facing now. But he did throw a few dovish bones to the markets.
First, he revised the existing program to allow the ECB to buy as much as 33% of any particular bond issue, up from 25%.
Second, he said there were more “downside risks” to the inflation and economic growth outlook.
|
|
| Europe faces “downside risks” to the inflation and economic growth outlook. |
Third, he suggested Euro-QE could go beyond the current time limit of September 2016 if needed.
The immediate impact was to send the euro currency as much as a penny and a half lower against the dollar, and to send stocks higher.
So the natural question is, “Should you buy?” And as a corollary, does one day’s market action mean we’re right back in the same central bank-driven regime we’ve had for the past six-and-a-half years?
I’m going to answer as clearly and candidly as I can: No. I have said repeatedly that the August turmoil here, the worldwide market selloffs over the past several months, and the global economic slowdown that helped cause all of it, prove that the world’s central banks have lost control of the markets for more than the very short term.
What’s more, QE has been proven ineffectual repeatedly, including in Europe. Even the Federal Reserve’s own experts admit it. Why would Draghi even have to raise the issue of doing more QE — a mere six months after launching the program in the first place – if it actually worked to spur inflation and growth?
| “A key factor weighing on commodities and the U.S. markets has been the strong dollar.” |
That’s not all, either. A key factor weighing on commodities and the U.S. markets has been the strong dollar. It weakens our competitiveness on the world stage, crimps the profit of multinationals, and otherwise makes doing business tougher for American companies.
So IF the buck strengthens substantially again on this Euro-QE news (or anything else), that’s not a good thing for our markets. It’s another negative.
Bottom line: I don’t think it will pay any more to buy into central bank-driven rallies. I think you want to take advantage of bank-driven markets to sell.
For the first time in more than six years, I don’t think you’ll be alone — because investor trust and faith in banker omnipotence has been lost. That’s the message the markets have been sending out for months now. And it’s the message the markets sent out today, when an early rally of almost 200 points in the Dow fell apart into the close.
Do you think I’m on to something? Have central banks lost the power to influence markets for more than the very short term? Or do you think I’m underestimating their abilities? Are you “buying Draghi,” or selling him? Let me know over at the Money and Markets website.
|
Iran, the stock market, Fed policy, and a whole lot more: That’s what you were discussing over at the website.
Reader Frebon said the Iran deal is bad policy, adding: “We should get a grass roots movement to create a super PAC fund to ensure that no representative or senator who votes for the Iran deal gets re-elected. When this starts going, they will be scared to death and change their minds because getting re-elected is obviously much more important to them then the welfare of the country and all Americans.”
Reader Butch J. took a similar position, saying: “I can’t believe that the Democrats have lined up for this Iranian deal, and I am a 68-year-old registered Democrat. Do they not know the danger it puts us and Israel in? They say it is deal or war, but it will more than likely cause war. It will also disrupt the oil industry and cost plenty of Americans their jobs.”
Shifting to the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, Reader Alejandro said: “You are right on tighter money supply. Measured in dollars, it is tighter globally due to depreciation in euro and Japanese yen. In others words, with the dollar much stronger and the end of QE in the U.S., other central banks cannot substitute the supply.”
Reader J.R.J. added: “Anything the Fed does is just to enable the government to continue with the welfare state. They are going to do everything to keep the Titanic afloat until the next guy takes over. Same as usual. The only thing that would end the game would be the collapse of these dishonest fiat currencies.”
Lastly, when it comes to the stock market, Reader Richard J. said: “Here we go again: The market down 400+ one day, then up the next day 375 +/-. Nobody can tell me that this isn’t a game being played by the BIG market players who are making money at both ends.
“Us little guys with so very little money to play with, who are 15 years into retirement, have to sit on our good, blue-chip, dividend-paying companies and hope that sanity returns to a greed driven market.”
Reader Phil added: “As long as you don’t need capital, those blue-chip dividends will continue to provide income, regardless of the notional stock value.”
Bottom line: Many of you are fed up with Fed policy and fed up with crazy market volatility. The problem, as I see it, is that volatility isn’t going away anytime soon.
We have a global currency war underway. We have economic weakness in many corners of the globe. We have computerized trading systems potentially running amok (see my news item below). And we have central bankers who are now largely out of effective bullets. That means big moves, both up and down, are going to be the norm.
But I don’t think throwing up our collective hands and leaving the arena is the best option. Instead, I believe we can take this volatile market on together – and peel off significant profits from it. That’s because volatility and major trend changes create significant opportunities for those who have seen it before, like your editors at Money and Markets.
Want to add to the discussion threads on markets, Iran, monetary policy or anything else? Then here’s the link where you can do so.
|
China held its People’s Liberation Army parade and celebration overnight, parading tanks, troops, and other equipment through Beijing, while flying its jets overhead. The country’s leaders also announced they would shrink the military by 300,000, a move that will free up more money to spend on advanced weaponry and naval and air force equipment.
Central banks the world over have missed their inflation targets for the past several years, though it hasn’t been for lack of trying. This Bloomberg story does a good job of showing this isn’t a problem here in the U.S. only. It’s a worldwide failure of low rates and money printing to achieve the primary, stated goal: Boosting prices.
Investors and analysts up and down Wall Street have tried to explain why stocks went berserk in August. The latest theory from the influential founder of Omega Advisors, Leon Cooperman, is that so-called “risk parity” and momentum-based, computerized strategies were responsible.
A whopping $600 billion in investor funds now follow a risk parity strategy, which involves dynamically adjusting exposure to various asset classes over time. The problem? It tends to go haywire (in “technical terms”) when volatility explodes like it did last month. The selling pressure may not be over, either, according to the Financial Times.
I don’t talk about the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report on corporate layoffs very often because it’s a minor economic indicator. But it’s worth mentioning that it showed a 2.9% year-over-year increase to 41,186 in August. That was the seventh month of annual increases. It also puts us on pace to have the highest number of announced layoffs since 2009 for the full year.
Do you have any thoughts on China’s military pomp and circumstance, and its plan to modernize its army, navy, and air force? What about the impact of computerized, automated trading strategies on stock prices? And should we be concerned about rising layoffs? Head over to the website and share your opinions when you have a minute.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
{ 79 comments }
We got here with our nose/military in every bodies busy. Bring the military home and let them duke it out. I venture, Israel wins. Oil destroyed there, gets frackers here busy.
Spending goes way down, but venture to say, they still will not balance budget.
Only because there is always an American that wants some thing from a Politician and they will get the donation from the individual or take it by inflation and deflation. Just for that fellow Americans vote.
So volatility just has one taking shorter term trades. Till the trend shows up.
charley
How is an overwhelming policy of zero interest rates and QE supposed to boost prices? How can Financial Repression cause the majority of people to consume? They can’t. If consumers have no money because of these policies they can not spend!! The Federal Reserve has it’s foot firmly on the necks of most consumers by depriving them of adiquate income.
Youse guys are MUCH too specific. You claim that folks have lost confidence in the central bankers. Dat’s a given.
What you folks don’t seem to realize is that 30-40 years of appointing political hacks and politically correct personnel to various posts and positions regardless of their qualifications have left us with an incompetent press, public educational system, financial sector, executive branch (all levels of government), Congress (all levels), army and other military, police and fire, medical/drug industry, courts (all levels), colleges and universities, and even churches. When you can buy “scientific” results, you can’t even trust science. When “stodgy” banks must be bailed out, then fined for “rigging” things, you KNOW you have problems.
When 75% of the people believe that government is corrupt, people have generally lost confidence in ALL the areas. We’ve come a long war from the vicuna coat.
Yes, this the “Reagan Era.”
wa char;)
Tony is right, we all know it.BUT it is human to live in a make-belief world.As long it does not affect me today.(YET) The last thing a Person looses is HOPE..
“Don’t fight the Fed” has worked in every crisis in the history of the stock market. Like it or not they have the power to help the market along. The market will do what it always does get into extreme and bounce back to equilibrium. Businesses will continue to create jobs, provide services and products, and make decent profits. People will eat, sleep, and multiply. Nothing has change. Buy good companies now. It is the bottom or near the bottom for most of them. It is like 1997/98. The US economy is doing very well and low oil prices will help even more so. 71% of the US economy is consumer consumption. Strong dollar and cheaper imports and gasoline will drive consumption. It will lead the rest of the world out of their recession just like 1998. We are better off than 2008/9. If QE didn’t work in 2009 we would have collapsed.
That’s darn funny…!
Yes. This is true. The economy in California has certainly recovered in many respects.
I’m liking these peaks and valleys. Buy low, sell high. In this case, the very next day! And do it again a few days later. This hobby will finance my other hobbies.
Another note. Your readers apparently don’t understand the Middle East at all. The fear of Iran is delusional and pushed by the media. We’re the ones who screwed them over in 1953 when we launched a coup against Mossadeq and installed our puppet, Pahlavi. And Bibi Netanyahu is a drama queen. His country is the one committing international crimes for decades, not to mention wars on Lebanon and Gaza.
Samantha sweetie, crawl back in your rabbit hole… You speak like an Obama troll.
Dr. Donnie, is your name really Donald Trump? Must be, as your only argument is an insult. Back in the barrel Donnie.
China now has the largest standing Army in the world!… Didn’t use to be that way… Then the New World Order (made up of some of the richest people in America) sent Nixon to China to “open up trade”… Personally, I believe they thought they could ship good Middle Class American Jobs to China, use their slave labor at pennies on the dollar and reap Billions selling those Chine made goods in America at HUGE profits, while screwing Middle Class American labor…. When given the chance those geniuses actually build duplicate factories in China. That worked until those factories came up for re-certification and the Chinese closed those plants and informed our geniuses that they could now buy those same products from the Communist Chinese at a much higher price from that duplicate factory down the road… Their factory? Oh it was staying lock, stock and barrel in China… Timkin Bearing comes to mind…
Boy, the above certainly worked out well, didn’t it? Now China is an economic power house and has the fastest growing military budget in the world….. The Greed levels of the ultra Wealthy in this country seem to have no boundries, nor morals, either!… :(
I forgot to mention that now the Ultra Wealthy want a Huge U.S. Military to protect America from the very lethal military that is rapidly growing in China… Really sad and stupid thing is that all this never had to happen… If only they had taken a minute to listen to our Generals…. But then again, the same thing could be said about Cheney and both Bush’s, aye? Geeez!… :(
It’s obvious and has been for a while that world banks have lost control. They’ve been propping up markets, making leaders look good and giving the populace a false sense of security for 7 years. The Fed has become a political entity, and fore saken their mission. But the gig is up, the piper will be paid, guess who gets the bill !?!?! Inflation, unemployment, poverty, will be our stead for many years to come. It’s crunch time, get ready.
Anyone who listens to this political hokum that thr Iran Deal will make the Middle East (and the U.S.) safer, and prevent Iran from completing their 15 year quest for nuclear weapons needs to read up on History….This deal looks and smells like the Munich Agreement signed by Britain’s Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.
Chamberlain, like President Obama, also hated War and thought any deal was better than the alternative. So he gave in to Hitler’s escalating demands. And we still got War!!!!
Obama hates War? What planet are you living on? Obama is doing everything he can to start World War III with Russia. Washington had a huge role in destabilizing Ukraine and overthrowing a duly elected leader. And there were those little incidents in Libya and the ongoing fiasco in Syria. Obama is a huge supporter of the military industrial complex and does everything in his power to keep conflicts happening around the world.
Spot on. Putin ,Assad and Qaddafi are /were tyrants but they did keep things under control in their backyard, Obama is essentially insuring endless conflict, creating masses of refugees. There were never refugees from Libya in these numbers before.
It only because he’s a nitwit… He only enjoys playing the military and destabilizing any country he can to make a takeover by ISIS easier…
Right on Steve…
Mike I think you’re spot on in your Bottom Line call and I’ll go one further. I believe the central banks are purposely putting positive and forward information out there 1) for us to buy into it 2) so THEY call sell out of it 3) including new high buy analysis on oil stock.
This I believe it due to the extremely high loan level they have out on oil companies. This new higher price in oil cannot possibly hold-it has to fall-even the big guys are not only pulling back but they are letting key long term employees go and listed as no-re-hire. Wouldn’t it scare you if your company had 80% of its loans out to a sector going under? ow far would one go to create a situation in order to pull out of it? We’re seeing it now.
I urge caution on presumptions regarding the oil price forecasts. The Saudis are anything but stupid. When you see a chess master sacrifice his queen (high oil price) it’s because he thinks he can win the game by doing so. Jim
I’m not presuming by what I’m told on tv – I am reporting what I’ve seen in the fields across 5 states where the energy pull back is noticeable to a rock collector. They couldn’t go into mass production in anything less than 5 weeks and that’s a lot of money. The Saudis are definitely very smart chess players and they’ve had the board stacked in their favor…..things are getting a little tricky now and they’re showing signs of fatigue of the game…..but we are not playing anymore instead preparing for the future with refinery re-fits and 5 year plans for oil independence with only the Permian back into production (as of 8/17/15) drilling new wells.
Shale wells deplete 95 per cent in three years. The shale revolution was made possible with massive deficit spending which will probably not materialize in the future. Our entire banking system is in jeopardy now because of all the bad debt accumulated chasing this stuff. Continental Resources, the supposed big winner, amassed $8 billion in debt it will never be able to pay back. It’s a classic “Red Queens” dilemma. The only reason production levels have remained high is because they are desperately trying to service debt. The Saudis still control the center of the board, and they may well decide to squash our domestic industry and their other nemesis the alternative energy effort. Jim
Initial decline on shale wells may be 95% if they are flowed back and shut in for a period of time. These wells typically have a hyperbolic decline with a high b-factor. In layman’s terms, initial decline is high (maybe as high as 95%) but this only last for a short period. As time goes on, the decline rate decreases and the wells have a very long economic life. So on the first few days a well may make 1000 bbl/d. By year 1 it is making 400 bbl/d, year 2 it is making 300 bbl/d, year 3 it is making 250 bbl/d…. year 50 it may be doing 10-20 bbl/day.
The shale revolution was made possible by technological improvements made possible by high oil and gas prices. Opec drove up the price for the past 15 years, now US production is poised to take over, they have no choice but to let the a free market take over. Oil and gas companies did not have that low of interest rates anyway, just insufficient hedges.
Good points and thoughts Jim. I pointed out earlier I feel the Banks are causing a false positive so we’ll continue blindly buying into the market so they can sell their massive energy loans down. When this full truth comes out there will be a massive exhaustion to the entire ‘Street’.
The major oil companies like Exxon, Chevron, She’ll, etc have unloaded every shale acre they had because their accountants told them ute wasn’t going to work. Jim
Also, as Samantha correctly points out, everybody likes to accuse Iran of bad behavior, but the real exporter of Islamic Extremism is now and always has been the Saudi Royal Family. It would be a perfect example of The Law of Unintended Consequences if that extremism returned to destroy them. ISIS cannot establish a credible Islamic Caliphate without the cities of Mecca and Medina being within its borders. Jim
Jim, who do you think is giving ISIS funding… Yes, it’s Obama through the payoff to Iran… Iran has been supporting ISIS since their beginning… It sure as heck wasn’t the Saudi Royal Family…
It’s even scarier than I thought. I’ve heard it said that what you see happening in the Middle East isn’t what’s really happening and the people you think are doing it are not the ones doing it. Jim
Dr. D,
You’ve got your Shia/Sunni supporters mixed up,,,, And your logic for Obama is a mess also… Back to the books, aye?
Dr. Donnie Smith, ISIS is an offshoot of, and even stricter than, the Wahhabi sect that rules Saudi Arabia. Wahhabis founded al Qaida, and support the Taliban. They finance madrassas, or Islamic schools that are spreading Wahhabi doctrines throughout the Islamic world, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. – which, of course, is already an atomic power, with at least 200 warheads in stock. They are far more dangerous to the world than the Ayatollahs of Iran. And Saudi Arabia is supported by Obama, and Western oil interests. ISIS gets most of its funding from the Saudi Wahhabis. Go figure.
? the more I learn the less I KNOW. No help I know.
keep up the GOOD Work!
The problem with Iran is that nuclear technology is available to all. Almost anyone can build and deploy a bomb, should they so desire. Mexico could easily. Why don’t they?
The Iranian leadership is crazy, but there are still millions of sane people there who need to live their lives. It is impossible to keep Iran from developing nukes. Everyone knows that the more you try to deny someone something the harder they try to get it, Especially, when national pride is involved.
The focus of the negotiations should be to use the money they receive for common sense business purposes. Make it more attractive for them to buy boeings than arms and to stay within their borders. This is tremendously difficult but has to be done.e
We live with the fact that we can’t stop gun violence by denying guns to all. The psychos still get guns despite many laws and precautions
Efforts by politicians (and central bankers are really just politicians by another name) to control economies, will ultimately result in the kind of controls that led to the downfall of the Soviet Union, or they will be largely ignored by the markets. The FREE markets ALWAYS find a way to win out over the theorists. That is their nature, and nature ALWAYS wins out.
The politicians and news media talk like we can prevent Iran from getting the bomb.
Of course they can build it now, if they haven’t already. As Victor says, nuclear technology
is available to all. An interesting fact: “Barely four years after the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in August 1945, the Soviet Union detonated its own in August 1949, much sooner that expected.” And we think we are preventing Iran from building the bomb 66 years later! It’s an absurd notion, I think! They will build it any old time it is to their advantage and use the threat to get all manner of advantages for their objectives and we will pay them along the way! I suppose this Iran agreement allows the world parties to “stand down” in clashes with Iran since we have a negotiated protocol for
“treating” the problems. Israel, for example, won’t feel compelled to bomb Iran’s bomb making facilities, etc. It will be a sight to see how the inevitable conflicts are deflected using the agreement as Iran just goes its merry way. They must be quite proud of their
accomplishment and giddy at the open road to their future! Time will tell as we often say.
We will hope the acumen of our politicians is deeper and wiser than it appears on the surface of things.
Obama has said, repeatedly, that Iran will not have the bomb.
And of course you can believe Obama. Ha-Ha.
I’m in China, as I type this comment.
My sense about China’s modernization of its military is this:
They see the power vacuum, created by the USA, as it deals with domestic issues, AND, with its never-ending struggle against Islamic terrorism.
They need lots of oil to continue with their industrial output, and, with their growing middle class automobile owners.
China is very pragmatic. They have never sought to become a global hegemon.
They have, recently chosen to test boundaries, in the region, by seizing control of uninhabited islands off the coasts of Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam. This action helped them deal with their oil supply issues.
They also witnessed the regional blow-back, caused by those actions, so they have not taken further actions, at least, not with already-exsisting islands.
They HAVE begun construction of artificial islands, in the South China Sea, because, this is a less-provocative way to maintain a strong presence in the region, without ruffling as many feathers.
Am I worried about China?
No. Not at all.
China is busy becoming an economic power-house. They continue to make their economy more open, although in a very controlled manner.
This temporary slow-down in China’s economy was inevitable. A bump along a very long and prosperous road.
Incidentally, the Vietnam War was really about oil. A late Navy friend was
in charge of receiving communication from Washington and forwarding it to the
Commanders conducting the war. It became apparent to him what the true purpose of our being there was.
This is not a stock market crash, in fact it’s the beginning stages of an epic bull market.
Oil and all commodities are going to crash.
Europe will fall apart and so will China. What do you think all the rick people in Europe and China will do? They have only one option and that is to buy US stocks and bonds. The USD will soar while most other currencies will crumble, especially the Euro.
Interest rates in the US will fall as more people buy US bonds. Interest rates have been falling for 30 years while would they start to go up now? Please someone convince me that interest rates will rise. I have not heard one logical reason why interest rates are going up.
Trust me, buy the dips, in a few years you will be very glad you did.
The Jewish Sabatical ca lander of ELUL 29th is Sept. 13,2015.This is the beginning of
The “Jubilee” or when debts are forgiven. The U.S. stock market has cratered every 7 years
This has occurred in the recent past, e.g., 2001 and 2008. Think God has a hand in our affairs? Respectfully, Gary
9/11 occurred during a similar period. When The Dow reopened it dropped 777 points. Just a coincidence I guess! Jim
Good observation…
I have never been in favor of the concept of the EU or the Euro. The concept of the EU is like wanting to have your cake and eat it too. Can you imagine every state in the U.S. being a country with their own representative to the UN, IMF, WB, etc.; all being run by a bunch of central technocrats out of DC. Oh dear, is the U.S. following in Europe’s footsteps? The concept of the Euro dooms each country in the EU by taking away the last form of fiscal responsibility from the elected officials of each country in the Euro. Oh dear, why does the U.S. have the FED? The strength of the Founding Fathers of the United States was that they wanted to put in place a system that decentralized the nation; unfortunately, this concept has been extremely eroded by now. The U.S. is returning to the very ideas of Europe that our Founding Fathers wanted to avoid.
Check your history. The original Articles of Confederation, with no strong central government were replaced at the 1787 Constitutional Convention by the current Constitution, which established a strong central government. This was initially sufficiently unpopular that the “Founding Fathers” had to write a series of articles in support of the new form of government. These articles are known as the Federalist Papers.
Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen.. They are all stupid, arrogant failures. Putting millions in the wallets of money changers like Goldman will not and did not increase inflation. Yet they refuse to give up and admit their mistakes. Why no inflation? Simple! Inflation is driven by middle class consumers possessing spending power. None of the FED’s welfare for the rich schemes put excess spending dollars into the wallets of the middle class. Increased Porches and yacht sales are not enough to relieve the financial burdens of the working middle class. The FED lacks any iota of moral character necessary to admit that they have failed America. It is time for them to atone for their stupidity and return the system to market interest rates. No more Qeeees!
This is exactly what is suppose to be made ‘right’ during this Jewish Jubilee/Sabbatical which is not only falling on the 7th year but ballooning with a 50 year prophecy concerning those (including nations) who’ve not admitted or atoned for their misdeeds. I’ve also been told by a Rabi there is another 250 year atonement falling within 4 days of the 13th. By the time Larry Edelson’s chart begins October 7th things could already be very different than now.
Not to mention the 2000 year cycle that starts with the birth of Adam.
I can’t understand anybody being against anybody or anything promoting peace.The Iran deal does that for at laest 10 years or 15.Ask the héros who lost a leg on Irak .they are sûre ly for a deal that Will prévent their friend from dying .It is easy to critisise sitting on your……..Besides,very good things could happen politically in 10 years .The population could have enought of thèse barbus and install a réal démocratie.Remember the Shea of Iran.
Jeanpierre, you need to go back to where ever you came from, learn English and then come back and try to tell Americans what to do…!
In the mean time, just invest your Euros in our stock market because us wealthy guys are playing this market like a fiddle taking money from suckers buying on the upside.
Dr. D, What is with the attitude? disagree, but, hey, lets lay off the insults… You are a smart guy, but like someone else said, you are sounding like Trump….
Jeanpierre: The gist of your note is correct. Ignore Dr. S.
Hello Jeanpierre. I’ve read your post and one response to it from someone who, like me, is from America, and would like to add my own response — at least partly in repairing some damage that may have been done to your view of America after this exchange.
I agree with you about the Iran agreement. For people seeking a permanent peace, it’s certainly less than perfect, as some of the terms expire five or ten years from now. But at least the agreement gives us five or ten years of stronger assurances for peace than we have now; in that five or ten years, we have the opportunity to work with Iran to find a way to attain a peaceful future that lasts even longer. Those seeking an alternative seem generally to prefer an outright attack of Iran as soon as possible, and I can’t see that option resulting in anything other than a disaster.
Regarding the insult posted elsewhere here regarding your familiarity with the English language – it’s true there are a few errors of grammar or spelling in your post, but your message still comes through clearly. Reason suggests that in any country, we need to have some tolerance of the quality of writing or speech from someone not raised within our own culture; I’d guess that your skill in English far surpasses the skill most American commenters here, including me, have of the French language.
I hope you see this; thanks for posting. — Todd
A peaceful relationship is worth fighting for, but not if you’re the only one fighting for it.
How is it that all of you peace loving individuals conveniently forget that Iran’s leaders and a huge majority of Iranians have sworn to kill ALL Americans? Oh, and all Westerners too (Ah, that includes the French too)!
Is there something you cannot fathom about being killed by someone who swears that they will kill you? And on the same day agreement of the accord/treaty was announced no less.
Giving the enemy everything they want is the height of not just ignorance, but plain stupidity.
Richard Chamberlain and unfortunately the English (and the French, Polish, and Jewish) people discovered that in a very deadly way at the hands of a power that didn’t even claim to want the deaths of innocent people of Europe and England.
Truly history repeats itself in horrible ways, just ask Larry, the man with all curves, graphs, and charts, and unless you are prepared for, and have learned from history what has happened in the past, “it†will happen again and again.
There has never been peace in the middle east, and as long as there are two Muslims alive that follow the teachings of the Koran, there never will be peace in the world (sorry, that’s history too).
WW II in the Pacific ended because American leaders (yes, we had a few with balls then) bombed the hell out of the Japanese homeland, and yes unfortunately it resulted in many innocent Japanese lives lost. However fortunately it saved many America’s lives and the Republic. Yes we could have likely offered a peaceful settlement and treaty after the first atom bomb, and that would have given Japan time to build an arsenal of nuclear weapons at least as sophisticated as the U.S.
How quickly did the Japanese come on line with vehicles that now out-sell everything and anything Americans manufacture?
You peaceniks have been infected by a very deadly disease called Normalcy Bias. The symptoms are not believing it can or will happened because you never experienced it before, or even worse, you simply cannot believe someone will kill you because they swear they will.
God help us all…!
And yes, I get fed up with foreigners telling Americans what do, especially the French who had to be rescued from speaking German not once but twice.
China has so many military personnel it has become ludicrous. I suppose that should one million soldiers not provide a safety feeling for the President, then I suppose two million soldiers should be given the opportunity? What if this two million soldiers aren’t sufficient? I suppose that another two million, reserve soldiers, could be added to the lot? Perhaps? Begs the question; How safe must the leaders of China feel? Is there some sort of deficiency within the troops? For needing 4 million? I imagine with these astounding numbers, wouldn’t they be bumping and banging each other should a real emergency arise? Who could hear the commander at the head of that gross of troops, anyways? It is difficult to fathom chow time, let alone an all out scramble for safety when urgency requires. Must have been a spectacular showing, the parade. If only one had their own plane, or helicopter? Perhaps?
How do you fight an army with 30,000,000 infantry replacements a year? Jim
Nuclear warheads
They’ve got them also….
Secret weapons?
Good point Jim… Really stupid moves so many years ago at the behest of the Conservative Ultra Wealthy (CUWs)…
Planned Parenthood…!
NO! I DO NOT AGREE. THE US STOCK MARKET HAS BOTTOMED. IF YOU DRAW IN YOUR SUPPORT AND DIAGONAL TRENDLINES. YOU WILL SEE THIS LOOKS JUST LIKE THE E MINI S&P 500 AND THE DOW DID IN 1987. IT MADE THE SAME PATTERN AND WENT SCREAMING UPWARDS AND THAT’S JUST WHAT THIS MARKET IS GOING TO DO.
Next year June – July
The IMF has recently reported that the world’s major economies are still growing, although be it at a slower pace, and encouraged the FED to not tighten until at least 2016; but commodities are screaming that the reported growth is a big lie. The FED should open their eyes and close their ears to the EU Central Bank and to the IMF; but I should expect we may continue to see the blind leading the blind as they walk in circles with hand on each others shoulder.
Commerce really has picked up in California over the past 3-4 years.
I was driving around yesterday, thinking – This is really amazing.
Many new apartments being built, new university buildings, lots of road
improvements, new restaurants. Something is working.
Here is something for our gutless leaders to chew on. We should let them put their money where there mouth is so to speak. I say if this deal starts a major war, Obama, and everyone who votes for this disaster should be tried for war crimes against humanity and suffer whatever punishment is due them
What about the Republican War Crimes? I like “HoldFast”s comment below.
Obama really is an amazing President. Fifteen years gives the forces of good time
to manifest, if and as they can. The Iranian people are sophisticated and intelligent.
There are two conceptions of God – one as remote and one as a smiling presence,
who is approachable and who wants to play a part in our lives. Let us have good
expectations.
Well said and true……
Re China Parade showing it’s military weapons….notice the “English” lettering on the rockets! One would think that the Chinese would print lettering in their language on them.
Hmmmm..maybe Obama loaned them!
David, YES, I noticed that too!! (Good observation!) Makes you wonder doesn’t it?
Funny… But possibly true…
You republicans are scared of your own shadow. Who in this world is going to go against the US? They all know we crush the opposition. Use your head. The war with ISIS is a joke. 40,000 Arabs against a couple hundred thousand US troops is a joke. Use your head!
The only reason any war drags on is so the Haliburtons of this country can reap big rewards and double charge the country. Cheney only stayed in Washington to put out any fires or backlash against his company.
The Iran deal is not good for the arms dealers of this country. When will you republicans stop being puppets for the military industrial establishment. Maybe you should go to church more often! Ha Ha Ha.
Regarding the issue of whether or not central banks have lost influence over the markets beyond the very near term, I believe the answer to be a clear “yes”.
Keynsian and monetarist economic theories largely have shaped our current monetary practices, and it’s noteworthy that the original promoters of the economic tinkering suggested by these theories recommended that such tinkering be performed in moderation. Over many years, we’ve relied upon their suggestions so often and with such scope that our relationship with economic stimulus mirrors the junkie’s relationship with a drug. We keep needing more and more stimulus to get a diminishing “high”, until ultimately there is no positive effect at all. We are left with an expensive habit that we cannot abandon, and could lead us into crisis.
Wittingly or not, the central banks have become, metaphorically, a drug syndicate, and the big financial houses their pushers. Perhaps we need a national 12-step program.
Perhaps a new digital currency will evolve without the central banks participation…
We can hope can’t we…?
Todd, sounds like Trump will put us on a program, and a good one at that!! …a “get with the program” kind of program!!
Bernanke tried to tell ’em (and ended up without the job any longer because of it.) The FOMC’s policies need the hand-in-hand cooperation of Washington….but our beloved politicians were, and are, off chasing down rabbit trails and running around in circles instead!!
I’m liking what I hear Trump say.
I just hope he doesn’t do like all the rest and completely forget the platform on which he campaigned once he gets into office!!
We are all Humans! We have come with nothing and go with nothing! We are all Brothers
And Sisters and we should help one another! But do we? There is one Creator, and we have many Gods/messengers teaching us how to behave, but do we all follow? We have
A lot of corruptions, and we all leave it behind. What are we doing? There have been
A lot of improvements, after so many billions of years, but have been able to achieve a
Better world yet? Yes, the percentage of the poor and middle class of people have
Some what increased, but have reached the total eradication of poverty? Have we made
An ideal World?