We have just partnered with Zogby International to conduct a national poll of likely voters.
And unlike any other poll we know of, we didn’t ask merely how they will VOTE on November 6.
We also asked how they will INVEST on the day after!
We wanted to know:
Will investors respond with exuberance, jump into stocks and drive the averages higher? Or will they run in panic and trigger a decline?
What about gold? Will they buy or sell?
Late last week, to give you the answers — and to give you all the results of the Weiss/Zogby poll — Weiss Research’s Charles Goyette interviewed pollster John Zogby in a special online briefing for our readers.
Each of these two gentlemen is a beacon for Americans seeking to better comprehend where our nation is headed:
Charles Goyette is one of the nation’s most knowledgeable analysts of how Washington can impact your investments, earning raving praise from Congressman Ron Paul, the Ludwig von Mises Institute, Judge Napolitano and many others.
Meanwhile, John Zogby is the man USA Today calls the “Most Accurate Pollster” and The Washington Post proclaimed “the maverick predictor who beat us all.”
So when these two teamed up at our special Weiss briefing online, the discussion was quite amazing.
I hope you there! But whether you were or not, you will certainly want to read the abridged transcript, which we are releasing here for the first and only time …
Decision 2012: America on the Precipice, Part I
with Charles Goyette and John Zogby
Charles Goyette: Let’s get right to the big news: The results from the Weiss/Zogby national poll.
John Zogby: We’re actually going to talk about TWO polls! The first is the Weiss/Zogby poll of 1,000 self-described investors (randomly selected from a broad group of voters nationally). The second is our regular nationwide poll of ALL likely voters.
Charles: Please start at the top of ticket — with the presidential race.
John: In the Weiss/Zogby poll of investors, Romney leads by 8 points, 48% to 40%.
In contrast, in the Zogby poll of all voters, it’s Obama who leads by eight points, or 49% to 41%.
Charles: This is critical. It’s telling me that if Obama wins, a lot of investors are likely to be very unhappy with the results of the presidential election.
How about the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico?
John: Among both groups — investors or not — Gary Johnson takes three votes from Romney for every vote he takes away from Obama. So Romney’s numbers actually go down in a three-way race with Johnson included.
Charles: What about the congressional races?
John: In the House of Representatives, Democrats lead by 4 or 5 points. That’s a barometric reading that suggests the Democrats could pick up 12 to 15 seats in the house.
But among self-identified investors, the Weiss/Zogby poll shows that in congressional races, Republicans lead by 4 percentage points over the Democrats, but that’s not enough. The GOP message is not yet connecting with investors.
In the Senate, what looked to be a slam dunk six months ago is now dicey. It looks like Democrats are actually leading in some key states that they need to hold and may even be picking up a few seats.
Charles: This is critical. So what does the government look like after the elections?
John: Here’s the likely scenario:
• The president wins re-election.
• Democrats hold on to the Senate. And
• Republicans hold on to the majority in the House, although weakened a tad.
Charles: In other words …
Most investors want Republicans — especially fiscal conservatives — to take control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. But unless there’s a dramatic turn in the next few weeks, that’s not likely to happen, and investors are going to be extremely unhappy with the election results.
John: Correct! And we have actual poll data which specifically reinforces that conclusion.
Charles: It also sounds like congressional gridlock continues. So let’s talk about this gridlock specifically. Because we have the Fiscal Cliff headed our way!
If the Republicans continue to hold out for an extension of all the Bush tax cuts and significant spending cuts, and the Democrats continue to hold out for tax increases on those earning more than $250,000 per year, we’re liable to have a battle royale over these issues.
John: If that’s the scenario, then we hit the Fiscal Cliff — one trillion dollars of budget cuts automatically kicking in across the board. Defense. Social spending. And, at the same time, no extension of the Bush tax cuts — a potential catastrophe on a number of levels.
Charles: No real solution likely for the debt crisis OR for the Fiscal Cliff! We’re talking about an election that will actually leave us not better off, but worse off in terms of the conflict between the parties in seeking partisan advantage. This could be a real nightmare.
I’m not accustomed to citing Ben Bernanke as an authority, but he IS the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and even he says that this could cause America to plunge off the Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013.
How about somebody in the investment community like JPMorgan, the global financial services firm with $2.3 trillion in assets? This is their take on the Fiscal Cliff: “Barring a miracle, America, will fall head first into the fiscal meat grinder.”
What happens then?
Tax revenues fall off, the deficit widens, and slashed unemployment benefits could be a consequence. Many other government programs won’t be funded — and we’re not just talking on a national level. What about municipalities and states across the country with jobless workers, the elderly and the poor desperately searching for ways to feed their families?
We’re talking about the possibility of all that — in addition to the millions of people who are already effectively destitute in this country.
We’ve seen stories about children who brush their teeth in gas stations at night before they go to sleep in the back of the family automobile, because they’ve been forced into poverty — homeless and utterly dependent on the government for food and shelter.
And now this?!
Already, the government is frozen, unable to act. And now, due to the elections, it looks like it’s all coming to a head much sooner than year-end. So let’s talk about how Romney or Obama will impact the economy according to your investor survey results, John.
John: Almost 48% of investors say a Romney win would be positive or extremely positive for the economy. Only a third — 33.7% — say Romney would be negative or extremely negative for the economy.
Meanwhile, 46% of investors say an Obama win would be negative or extremely negative for the economy. Only 38% say an Obama win would be positive for the economy.
Charles: Now, let’s get down to the most important questions for investors: How will a Romney or Obama election affect investors’ decisions to buy or sell stocks?
John: If Romney wins, 33% say they are more likely to BUY stocks, while only 19% say they are likely to sell.
If Obama wins, only 23%, say they would be more likely to buy, while 31% say they are more likely to SELL stocks.
Charles: So let’s put this together: Obama is likely to win, and with an Obama victory — stock investors are more likely to be sellers!
What about gold?
John: In a Romney win, it’s a wash: 18% of investors are more likely to buy gold and 18% are more likely to sell.
But on the flip side of that, in an Obama win, among the investors we polled, about 25% say they are more likely to buy gold; only 18% say they’re likely to sell.
Charles: So an Obama win will likely drive gold prices substantially higher!
John: That’s the logical conclusion, yes.
Charles: No one knows exactly what the future will bring. But one thing seems sure — from everything you’ve shown us today, the next few months will definitely NOT be boring. Let me sum up —
First, most investors expressing their opinion want Romney to win the White House and Republicans to gain greater control in Congress.
Second, our polling shows that they are likely to be disappointed — Obama is the likely winner and little will change in Congress.
Third, investors are telling us that, in this scenario, they will tend to SELL their stocks — which could easily trigger significant declines in the stock market.
Fourth, they’re telling us that, in the wake of an Obama victory, they will be inclined to BUY gold.
So bottom line, this poll is telling us that in the next few weeks, we could see three things:
1. An explosion in gold prices. This has already begun, thanks to the Fed’s recent “QE-Infinity” announcement.
2. A decline — perhaps a sharp decline — in the stock market. So investments that soar when stocks sink should generate substantial profits.
3. Governmental gridlock as far as the eye can see — and our leaders’ pathetic inability to deal with one of the greatest fiscal crises of all time: the great Fiscal Cliff of 2012-2013!
My personal view is this: The nation’s locomotive is out of control, speeding toward the precipice of the greatest Fiscal Cliff in recorded history. And these clowns are throwing punches at each other as if they’re totally oblivious to this looming catastrophe.
Furthermore, the elections are likely to make matters worse, widen the divide, and make any real solutions even more difficult.
This isn’t just some theoretical crisis way out there on the horizon. This is a very real, very imminent disaster that’s going to have a massive impact on everyone.
Of course, after the election, the two opposing sides could try to cut some deals to buffer the blow from the Fiscal Cliff. But overall, anybody hoping for big help from Washington is going to be woefully disappointed.
The only solution now is for each one of us to take matters into our own hands and take action to defend our own incomes, our own savings, our own investments, our own future.
John, once again, thank you for joining us today. Your insights are going to be a lot of help to a lot of people to help them protect and grow their wealth in the months ahead!
{ 6 comments }
Obama is inept . . . our only hope is a Romney win!
I would think after Romney wins that one of his first orders of business would be to fire Bernanke, and eliminate the stimulus. So I would definitely be on the sidelines if he wins.
I would not put trust in neither. Both trains on the same track one is faster the other a little slower. Better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.Dollar is shrinking either way . Jobs are in china and not coming back
Like the Rasmussen, sounds like the poll was flawed.
Here is a curious statistic- 8/10 of America’s richest counties voted for the president, some by a very wide margin. Anecdotal evidence suggests a large percent of American wealth, and best investors, reside in those counties. Now perhaps poor or mediocre investors favored Romney, but not world class investors.
Second, Wallstreet is +3T$ under Obama, and 93% of that went to the 1%. It no leap of faith to consider those folks are not about to rock THAT boat. They’ll gonna nourish THAT moneytree!
Sure Romney would have adorned them with tax favors and advantages for their votes. But apparently the did the math, and the favors didn’t offset the economic future under Romney which promised to be a continuation of 2008.
Well done America- we dodged a bullet in this election!
Why do investors want a Republican in the WH? Except for Clinton and now Obama they have been in the WH since Reagan and the only time the budget came close to being balanced was during Clinton’s eight years. Bush Jr made a mess of government spending and had a Republican Congress. Did they balance the budget? No they started two wars and put them on the government credit card. Most regulations were not enforced and the home lending industry brought the economy to its knees. BP Oil almost destroyed the Gulf economy and Massey Energy lost miners and the Deep Branch Mine because they and other knew the regulations would not be enforced. While I don’t go for Nanny Regs the reason there are regs is because of the crowd that does not believe rules apply to them and so what if someone dies as long as they make that one more dollar.
If you think I am a bleeding heart liberal you would be wrong. I would take that line teach a man to fish one more step teach him how to make a fishing pole. I would even have the government collect the taxes this year then make the budget from the amount collected. When that account hit zero all checks stop just like in a personal bank account. They also need to vote on the tax funding for each program when they vote on that program. If you want to increase Defense then then they have to vote for the increase in taxes to pay for it.
Sounds like spydox and whatnow know more than all of you. True?