I don’t know if you saw The Lego Movie. But in the wake of Friday’s dismal jobs figures, it seems like stock traders were humming along to its “Everything is Awesome!!” theme song.
Market Roundup
I say that because while the news was terrible, the stock market reaction was great. After tanking around 260 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed and ran to the upside – closing up by around 200.
That was the biggest reversal we’ve seen since Oct. 4, 2011. Stocks then surged another 300 points or so today, which does beg the question: “Is everything awesome again?”
Well, the bull case seems to be that this is a carbon copy of fall 2011. That’s when we had just experienced a sharp drop in stocks caused by the debt-ceiling debacle. After chopping around throughout August and September, stocks bottomed out and did a moon-shot into November. A late-year pullback held at a higher high, and stocks were off to the races for the next three years.
But I see a major flaw in that line of thinking. That 2011 correction didn’t stem from a fundamental, economic or credit market driver. It stemmed from a largely political standoff over the debt ceiling. So once the political standoff was resolved, stocks were free to resume their bull market run.
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| The bull/bear debate rages on. |
That bounce back in the fall of 2011 also had the benefit of an easy-money tailwind, coupled with a total lack of disorder in credit or stock markets here and abroad. Conditions today are completely different. Stock, bond and currency markets are in turmoil worldwide, and investors are no longer “buying” central bank talk and action. They’re selling it.
We also just got another weak report in the ISM Services index. It fell to 56.9 in September from 59 a month prior. That missed forecasts for 57.5. A sub-index that tracks new orders plunged by the largest in any month since November 2008, which was in the midst of a recession.
So while I think you have to respect and acknowledge the short-term bounce, I don’t think it changes anything for the longer term. This still looks, smells and acts like a bear market. If anything, the move all but confirms we’re in one, considering huge, short-term, countertrend rallies are a calling card of every single bear market I’ve ever studied or traded through. So invest accordingly.
| “This still looks, smells and acts like a bear market.” |
What do you think, though? Is this the start of a significant year-end rally like in 2011? Or is it just another bear market bounce? Can we count on central bank talk or action to spur a big rebound like in 2011, or has that ship already sailed? Do you think the fundamentals are improving or worsening longer term, regardless of what happens in the very near term? Let me hear about it over at the Money and Markets website.
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“Jobs Fridays” are always interesting days in the markets, and last Friday was no exception as I said. So what did you have to say about the data and the market reaction at the end of last week? Here’s a sampling …
Reader Mike S. said: “It really is simple. We cannot have prosperity in America and keep buying from China. All those trade agreements need to be torn up. We sell virtually nothing to them. Buy American-made and demand American made, or prepare to lose our country and the future of the free world for that matter.”
Reader H.C.B. said: “All the recent dire economic news and reports may be true, but it’s probably not new. I notice it receives more attention from the press. All of a sudden, as public mood shifts into negative, things are viewed somewhat differently.
“True, the stock market has lost its momentum and declined off its highs. Janet Yellen’s inability to instill confidence by having indecisive policy and actions is contributing to the overall uncertainty and funk the stock market finds itself in … But at this point, a bear market or recession is not necessarily certainty, despite the negative public sentiment and data.”
Reader Chuck B. said: “It is unbelievable that new jobs fell for the last couple of months, labor participation is the lowest since 1977, 10-year bonds fell, and the stock markets all rose. Talk about looking at the world through rose-tinted glasses. Whatever those buyers are on, I want some!”
Finally, Reader Tom said: “You are looking at the wrong number. While jobs are certainly important, the most significant number is profits — the ‘mother’s milk of stocks.’ Keep an eye this upcoming week on earnings, revenues and profits of some huge companies. It will tell the tale of the rest of year, in my opinion. If profits are strong, then I predict a nice bounce for the rest of the year. If not, stocks will continue a downward spiral.”
Thanks for sharing those observations. Some of you are clearly worried about a market meltdown. Others think we could rally into year-end as investors settle down and take advantage of bargains out there.
I think it should be clear by now where I come down on this whole debate. But if you have anything else you want to add to the discussion, please do head over to the website and share.
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Struggling clothing company American Apparel filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy today, brought low by too much debt and weak sales. The Los Angeles-based online and physical store retailer has about 10,000 employees, though it’s unclear how many will lose their jobs amid expected store closings.
Saudi Arabia continues to burn through reserves amid low oil prices and ongoing domestic spending efforts. The country’s reserve hoard shrank to $654.5 billion in August from $661 billion in July, putting it at the lowest since February 2013.
The U.S. is ramping up its anti-ISIS operations in Syria just days after Russia began bombing Syrian targets to advance its own aims. The Pentagon will now provide ammunition and weapons directly to fighters it believes can push ISIS back in the northeast part of the country.
Want to take cash out of an ATM that isn’t operated by your own bank? Then be prepared to pay through the nose for it. Bankrate.com’s annual study of ATM fees found the average cost for non-customer withdrawals rose to $4.52, up 21% in the past five years.
Are you sick of paying ATM fees? Does the U.S. approach to pushing back terrorists in Syria make sense? What about declining global reserves … will that put downward pressure on world markets? Let me hear your thoughts over at the website.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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This market has been so hard to trade. Got stopped out of a short position today. The market wants to go up, but the data and fundamentals don’t warrant it. But I guess we are back to bad news is good news. Tomorrow will tell a lot as we are at a strong resistance level, in which the market hasn’t closed above in a long time. Energy has been so strong, and that would signal higher oil prices, as the Saudis are cutting prices. You tell me. Going to step back for a while.
Ever since Mohammed died, the Islamic world has degenerated into war after war, for the last sixteen plus centuries. And it is not going to change overnight. There is a deal to end sanctions on Iran that will throw more gasoline on the fire. Until the people in the Islamic states get tired of it or one side annihilates the other it will go on and on and on and on……. So unless we want to get sucked into a war we can bequeath our great grand children we need to stay out. As the old saying goes “When you are up to your armpits in alligators it is hard to remember you original intention was to drain the swamp.”
God bless Russia,let them bomb hell out of them,we might look like the good guys out of it.Some goody good folk will be saying but people are dying,yes,but after all they are killing each other,so it might end faster and get peace.I doubt it
Russia is there out of pure desperation. They don’t give a hang about local politics. The Saudis an Qatar want to build a gas pipeline thru Syria to Southeast Europe to pull the last economic leg out from under the Russian gas monopoly in
Europe. Assad won’t build it so they are defending him. Jim
It troubles me to think no less suggest this, but I don’t believe that the Fed can, or will increase the interest rates by more than 0.25%. My reasoning might be flawed, but it’s pretty straight forward. As our national debt rolls over, it (most of it) must be recast, and if interest rates begin increasing our medium, and long term debt repayments will swell beyond our ability to repay it in a sensible fashion. The fix to this problem would be to increase all forms of taxes (federal), but there is little stomach for that solution, especially in a political season. There are solutions, but they, as they always have been are very painful. History tells us that war is one of the favorite solutions by the political class, especially the left side of the political class (despite what they would protest). As they say, ‘it is what it is’.
My hunch is that they will kick this problem down the road until the international debt markets solve our debt, and character problems for us. They will demand higher interest rates (seriously high rates) to take on our debt. This is my view of how this plays out right after a very brief pause in a short deflationary moment, which we appear to be wandering into as I type.
Bravo!
Jobs, good jobs, with insurance and retirement plans are missing in action. We gave them all away, to Mexico and China. Without them, the golden goose is missing some eggs. We are in a transformation between manufacturing jobs to the information age with much less need for humans that get paid decent for doing the mundane. Hard to drive an economy this size on less and less workers with less and less payroll to tax. Debt loads are way out of control. We can’t afford all the goodies our governments are giving away. Fix the taxes where big and small companies pay a real tax, and where rich and poor pay something for all the good things in this country. Nobody should live here and not pay something, and the rich should pay the lions share, It must make sense to work, and we have made it a smart play to stay home and live off the government. This will not work, as we can’t afford this anymore when there are fewer and fewer workers paying into the system and fewer and fewer companies paying real taxes through loopholes and special interest legislation and lobbyist controlling the politicians purse strings.
What turned the market around in 2011 was the “coordinated central bank intervention” of November 30. The Fed explained that they lowered the fee on currency swaps. Really?! Was that all there was my friend? Apologies to Peggy Lee. Funny that the first of Europe’s LTROs occurred just 2 weeks after that. Seems like it was some kind of capital injection. Whatever it was, it caused the market to go up 5% on the day and begin a strong ascent that lasted about 3 years. The market was clearly headed back down to the lows of Oct. 4 without that intervention. If you go by the Fed’s communication, there is no such intervention in the offing. I say that this rally peters out around SPX 2020, and then starts making its way down toward 1600. Then it will be time to take a look around and see which way the wind blow. Apologies to Jim Morrison.
I think that what happened Friday and today in the markets was just the realization that our dismal job numbers mean that the Fed won’t be raising interest rate for quite a while. As soon as we start getting some companies reporting some bad earnings the market will react to that and start down again.
someone with VERY powerful computers is just riding the market up and down.
Its the Vampire squid aka Goldman Sachs
It’s early October and I am cynical that a little exuberant bounce is anything but that. Perhaps it’s just inflation, but to my perception, despite the correction, prices still look high. From my perspective, some equities are just beginning to come into buying range and I’m patiently waiting for more downdraft drama. I do remember 2008 very well and had a marvelous time shopping… Diamonds are a girl’s best friend, especially when they are high grade and priced deliciously.
Anyone who believes this is a carbon copy of 2011 is crazy .
Everyone that has been taken in by Wall st propaganda is forgetting the most important difference between 2011 and now .
In October 2011 the DOW bottomed at 10,404 that my friends is 6.372 points below our close today and is almost as big a number as the 2009 bottom in the Dow of 6,470.
This number would not matter so much if there had been a real recovery in the US and the rest of the globe was not slipping into what will be the worse contraction since the 1930s .
If investors checked the http://www.usdebtclock.org website with the official figures on it and compared 2008 with 2015 they will see that contrary to what the latest DOW reading is indicating as a recovery , the last 7 years have been anything but a recovery in the US .
Example .
Food stamp recipients have risen by 41% and over 13M more than in 2008.
32.1M in 2008 , 45.3M in 2015
Those not in the labour force (NIL) have risen by a larger number since 2008 than the total U6 number in 2008 .
NIL 2008 was 80.25M NIL in 2015 94M .
U6 2008 13.5M , increase in the not in labour force figure by 2015 has risen 13.8M .
So if you added to the present U6 number of 16M just 50% of the NIL number increase
6.8M plus 13.5M it would give a U6 number of 20.3M or 13.6% unemployment
know wonder the roads are clogged and the restaurants full nobody is working anymore!
We have had to periods of “junk bond” bubbles since the the abolition of Glass-Steagall. If this vital legislation, which was initiated in 1933 after the great crash, is not reenstated, we probably will not be able tosurvive as a viable leading democracy.
For those not familiar with Glass-Steagall, this legislation removes tax payer (government) protection for banks who perform speculative legislation. A major portion of our public debt is based on worthless derivatives created by the greed of the big banks, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and bribe hungry politicians.
Most likely there is not enough desire or courage in either party to do what is necessary to save our economy. For the most part they are getting too many “gratuities” to do what would be required. Reelection comes before country.
Good!! Someone else who realizes we have allowed professional, or career politicians, who just keep getting themselves reelected to an office, if they can’t move up to a higher office, are at the root of many of our national problems. They are always beholden in some fashion to the big contributors to their campaigns, and at least don’t want to alienate them. And some are essentially on the payrolls of some of those contributors. They buy votes with promises that they sometimes keep and sometimes don’t.
Our political system is now corrupt and non functional. That Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are leading in any of the polls is proof positive of this. I don’t think any if them can fix it. It’s time to push the reset button. Jim
Derivatives off the balance sheet and the current waiver of regulation cause a lack of control which caused the 2008 depression, and it was and is a “depression”. This danger is not going to end until all activities of banks are on the balance sheet of all banks. If they cannot be regulated by law, the bank examiners cannot do a job for us. And no politician has forced that issue yet. Not even Bernie.
As an internationalist, I believe in free trade. If a country opens their markets to us and allows their currency to seek its own level, we do the same with them. Tariffs and manipulation in countries that don’t want to follow this rule get reciprocal treatment. This would cause some discomfort to start with, including to us, but would give some order in the long run. Biggest problem with trade now is everyone want to get one up on everyone else. Result: the mess everyone is now in.
Free trade would probably work fine between countries with similar domestic incomes and standards of living, but when workers in one country will do the work for a tenth of what those in another country earn, where do you think the jobs will go without tariffs that help make up the difference? Who will lose jobs they have trained for and have to take lower paying jobs, or retrain and start again at a lower level and suffer a reduction in their standard of living either way? Which government will suffer a reduction in taxes on income as a result, and cut services?
I believe that free trade might work between roughly equal standards of living. When there is a vast difference between the average wages of one nation and that of another , like water seeking its level, jobs are going to shift from the high wage country to the low wage one. Our policy should be that we’ll start trading with you when your workers are paid the same as ours.
My credit union reimburses me for using a non-network ATM. $4.52 is highway robbery!
I wish I earned the equivalent on a $100 deposit!! Maybe “someday” rates will equate to 4.52% per anum but, probably not in my lifetime.
Banking needs to suffer a consolidation. Just wait your next bailout needs when I, and some of my fine fellow Amerikans decide we no longer wish to support government…
Banks ARE consolidating. Government policies are killing off the small, independent banks and making them sell out to the larger ones.
Internationalist huh? I have three questions: Do you live in America, are you over 50 and are you wealthy? My guess is that the answers to those questions are No, yes and yes…. If you had children in America, you would know how hard it is to find a good paying job these days, regardless of your education, thanks to the “Internationalist Republicans”… As it is America is dying thanks to those “Internationalist Trade Treaties… If we go down, you might as well kiss the “Free World” goodbye, because America is the only thing protecting the Free World from the likes of Communist Russia and Communist China… Perhaps you are simply a “shill” for the Chinese and just sent this comment from deep in China, aye?
Look for QE4. America will be just fine. The Imperialist Federal Government is a slow motion train wreck, whoever is in charge. Jim
Mike S, Obama seems to be the real internationalist, with his Trans Pacific Partnership, that will take even more jobs from Americans, and make this country part of a treaty group that will end much of our independence as a nation.
Chuck,’Obama, like Clinton is pushing this … Go figure… :( That said, notice how EVERY Republican is supporting TPP just as they did with NAFTA…… Nope, these are Republican goals and they are killing the very country that protects them and their wealthier puppet masters!… :(
“FREE TRADE” is a myth. Nobody wishes to practice it, therefore one gets screwed by another, or their eco-system does in lieu of the other country. Is that FAIR? Hey, we have only ONE planet screw it up, and we are extinct. Maybe extinct with a new car, but yet extinct. Hey, California how’s that water thingy working for you guys? Think, Act, and don’t be extinct! If you live, you maybe can trade, fairly, managed, sustainable like…
Hi Mike! Since late October is always the most precarious time of any year regarding financial markets, with October 27 (3 x the cyclic number 9 of ENDINGS) being the most precarious day of any year per computer analysis, this is induced via planetary influences wherein the zodiacal sign of Scorpio (death and rebirth) reigns supreme. Hence, all bets are off until the end of October!!! I wouldn’t touch industrial stocks with a 100-foot pole now! BUY GOLD & SILVER stocks NOW!
Frankly,I don’t see the Fed raising rates this year due to the fact that ZIRP has failed to do the trick. By raising interest rates the dollar will strengthen vis a vis the euro and other currencies,thereby slowing our exports and killing emerging markets and others ability to pay dollar denominated debts etc. If anything expect the Fed to find an excuse for negative interest rates-NIRP. What an unbelievable mess we’re all in!
The problem is taxes. Paul Harvey, before he died tried to get a percentage of taxes in everything we buy. It turned out to be 40%. That is significant when our products go to Value Added Countries. Most countries are Value Added Countries, because VAT kills Income Tax. Our products end up 40% too expensive.
VAT sounds nice until you look at it closely. Even if it is not on things like food, medicines and fuel for heating and cooking, it hits the lower income people harder than it does those who earn more. They will pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes than the wealthy.
None of your recent commenters mentioned the dollar’s strength is mostly due to fact that, as the world’s reserve currency, the US has been getting away with issuing a forty year binge of IOU’s for everyone else to use to settle their own accounts. And the dollar’s strength is mostly due to the weakness of everyone else’s IOUs, which are not fungible. Add the fact that the Saudis have learned how to use their dollar deposits in our banks to pressure the US financial system so no one dares to criticize their support and funding of the most reactionary and brutal actors in the Middle East. Who do you think marketed all of the purloined oil that was seized by the crazies and used to buy weapons and pay the salaries of their recruirts? Strange silence from Washington: no one seems “to know”!
It’s a small thing, in the face of global economic issues, but since the topic of ATM fees has arisen ….
I recall when ATM’s were first introduced. Around 1980, were no fees; you could get cash from your bank from any ATM you could find, regardless of which financial institution installed the ATM.
After awhile, a fee of ten cents per transaction was introduced – again, always the same, regardless of what ATM you used. No one complained much; it was just a dime.
Now, fees are over forty times higher than that, if you don’t use an ATM owned by your own bank. It’s a metaphor I think for what has transpired around the banking industry in general. When ATM’s were free to use, you also got paid interest on your savings account, and at some places, if you opened a new account, the bank would give you a free toaster. A few banks, young and brash, offered free checking for life with no minimum balance. And a bailout was something parachutists did.
I don’t believe a bear market in the US has begun. Yes, there has been a correction, and perhaps the August bottom will be tested. But I think that will be it. And I don’t think the Fed has the cahones to raise interest rates anytime soon…in fact I expect the Fed to come up with some new way to create more easing. The consequences of not doing further easing are just too nightmarish at this point for the Fed to “bear”. So I do think the present situation is like 2011, with the exception the Fed will only be able to buy 15 or more months of time. Then all hell should break loose.
How can the FED ease? Negative interest? Maybe so, or maybe they will figure some other arcane method. Nevertheless, Paul, you could be correct. Maybe the amateurs can somehow push markets a little higher before they break.
However, some $7.8 TRILLION in debt has been issued since the 2008/9 crash, and $2.5 trillion of that is junk. Some 47 of those issuers have already gone bust this year. Credit cycles tend to be 5 to 7 years in length, and we are in the seventh year of this one. We are due, and this one could be a dilly.
Bet you a buck we get more QE! Jim
‘Won’t take that bet. You’re probably right, Jim!
What is wrong with the Federal Reserve… well everything they have tried has not improved the economy … I would think they could see this..I know they know, but are now boxed in . But it is a branch of the government that feeds upon itself. Why is there no accountability with the Federal Reserve. If it was a business in the private sector a lot of people would be fired including Bernanke and now Yellen. Obama wIll be gone in about a year. After that the new Republican President will appoint a new a Federal Reserve chairman. Then and only then will there be changes from the course we are on. Remember a dead fish smells from the head and it is like many other situations it is the fault of Obama the head.
We finally agree on something! Good post. Jim
Jim, that is NOT me, but rather a troll using my name…. :(
I am old enough to remember WWII and the one ridiculous thing we keep doing is throw money at every problem. If I were President I would announce that we are eliminating all foreign aid for 4 years and stop it immediately. Those countries that are still solvent after that can sign trade agreements that are balanced so if we trade with them there will no trade deficit ever again. When all the foreign aid vanished I would begin rebuilding our infrastructure and put America back to work and have a form of either universal military training or peace corp for the 18 to 25 yr old people who haven’t figured out to do with their lives. If they want to shot somebody join the military. Petty crime would go away. The drug mmarket would dry up. The remaking of America could be done in just 4 years. I am so tired of do-nothing politicians. Send them all home and pass a law that lawyers cannot hold political office. Wow, wouldn’t that be neat.
But Bob, these would be the sensible things to do. We don’t do that anymore! Jim
We first have to figure out how to get a safe place for transgenders to pee. Jim
All lot of us this site feel exactly the same way…. :)
Basically agree, especially about lawyers in politics. A lawyer sees a problem, and the first thing they want to do is pass a law or regulation! That’s how we got the mess of rules we currently live under, – and it is a mess. Of course it makes lots of work for lawyers! LOL!!
The McClellan Summation Index for both advances and declines, and for new highs and new lows is telling us there is no breadth to this market. Historically this has been bad news for any market near its high. Anyone running with the Bulls at this stage is apt to get gored in my opinion.
If, as you say, the U.S. is the best althernative in a world of mediocre economies, and the Dollar is the strongest (and the reserve) currency, and the world’s investors are flocking to the U.S. stock market, it (the stock market) has no place to go but up. A classic example of too much demand and not enough supply – higher prices.
That is basically what Larry Edelson is saying. I think you have boiled down his case in fewer words.
The strangest array of military power in the middle east. Russia is backing Syria and Fighting ISIS…. US is fighting Isis and Syria, this helps Israel , and is fighting ISIS which helps IRAQ ,which helps Iran ,which has sworn to destroy Israel
Maybe we will end up fighting Russia – in Syria, and in the air, at least.
The original concept of ATMs was that they reduced teller costs and paid for themselves from savings in teller wages. The push towards electronic banking has now further removed the need for tellers, and this in turn side steps the cost savings of ATMs on labor. Cash is being made expensive. The solution to store your cash at home instead of in the ATM is not without risk either; because in order to avoid getting robbed at the ATM, you run the risk of getting robbed at home. All playing into the hands of politicians wanting to track you through electronic banking and rob you through taxes to buy votes. God bless Silicon Valley.
End of month window dressing; 401k cash needing a home; a short squeeze rally.
Markets seem to be revealing most asset managers were correct when stating, “… expect heightened volatility with low to mid single digit returns for the next few years.”
Question for Mike: Do you want to be right or do you want to make money? The market doesn’t care what you think.
To me, the market sell off waves don’t seem to be complete. We should see more sellers at the peak of the rally who just want to get out on the background of falling manufacturing outputs and profits worldwide. Last 2 months’ sell off is not about the Fed (see what happened on the Fed sell on the news day). It’s all about manufacturing and China in particular (China is the biggest manufacturing economy in the world). When manufacturing is gone, other industries have to follow. I work in semiconductor industry (silicon valley). We design and sell tangible products such as anything used in computer and cell phones. Almost all semiconductors companies here are consolidating and laying off people (they don’t announce any more), everyone knows the semiconductor is going down hill. Only a few software companies are still looking good, namely google, facebook and apple maybe. To tell the truth, I can not name where the future economic growth is going to come from. By the Fed printing the money?
Markets usually go in waves, with occasional small drops along the way. Descending markets follow a similar opposite pattern. Have we reached a final peak after the recent rise? What you say about manufacturing is correct, Michael, The U.S. has given up the role of “Doer”, and China is taking over. That is the work of our lawyer politicians, who always want to put restrictions and rules on doers – always for the best of motives, of course.
From the low this past Friday until the end of the day Monday, we’ve gone up 764 points on the DJIA…in just 2 days!! I think the next couple of days will tell the tale. Markets will soon either tank fast and furiously…or we’re off to the races again! (I wouldn’t bet on the latter.)
As of late Monday, I currently have my bets on UVXY. We’ll see…….
I think SPXS has possibilities.
Its really so simple and yet its never reported this way. No matter about employment or unemployment figures it comes down to how much money collectively does the population have to spend and their propensity to spend compared to their propensity to save (consumer confidence) add to that their willingness to extend their household credit and the limit to that and you have an answer. If it adds up to the combined selling price of all domestic production plus imports you have a status quo. Theoretically if there is more money in the market than goods then prices of existing goods will rise ….. but this will never happen because China (in their present economic state) will race fill the void. If there is less money or confidence credit in the market prices will fall. Automobile sales are not a reliable indicator or increasing sales because there is a tendency to replace aging vehicles (a necessity to avoid high maitenance bills) every three years which results in a false sales spike. With housing there is a need to understand who is buying, corporations or individual families. Corporations buying mass housing is a negative indicator because they believe people will be forced into rental because ownership grows out of their reach.
Adrian
Good points, Adrian. Especially about corporate house buying. Auto sales in China could be a good indicator, since they don’t have that many old cars to replace, yet, and a huge population that doesn’t have its first car yet.
I am from Europe, as a non-customer I get charged in Europe 6€ for ATM withdrawal while the limit has been reduced to 300€ max.
all those comments out there make it more mind boggling, as the old saying goes and still holds ttrue to nature to this day,, take one day at a time, no one i mean no can predict the future no matter stock market or otherwise, take it slow and steady and let things run there course, i have been in the stock market for 2 yrs. i do not panic of the first dip in the market leave it alone it will bounce back remember one day at a time
Over a two year period that is true, norman, and also over a hundred year period, but in between there have been some pretty nasty times. That is when you want to have taken profits and hold for the next bump up along the way.
Given that oil is currently in the $40 range and will probably go back to the $70 -$80 range in the next two years, I was wondering why the US Strategic Reserve is not buying this cheap oil with the view of gradually releasing it later when prices moved up. I t wouldn’t cost the government anything since they could print this money. Once they have doubled their investment, they could use their profits to reduce their current deficit.
Politicians are seldom noted for brilliance, Romy.
Oil at lowest I have ever seen,but gasoline still high with all the taxes added.The poor oil companies are still making billions,and crying all the way to the bank,in their Rolls.maybe some will go broke?I can only hope.
WELL,SINCE I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REAL CHANGES ,DEBT STILL GROWING, CONGRESS LACKING THE BACKBONE TO DEAL WITH THE DEBT,UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE VERY SUSPECT,AND THE FED MAKING RUMBLES OF RAISING RATES
RATES I CAN NOT FIND A POSITIVE TO JUSTIFY A RALLY. IN FACT IF THE FED RAISES RATES WE CLOSE IN ON NOT EVEN BEING ABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST ON THE DEBT.
OUR WHOLE SYSTEM IS NOW BASED ON FAITH THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS EVERY THING UNDER CONTROL BUT WHEN TIS FAITH BREAKS DOWN LOOK OUT BELOW.
ONE SHOULD ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT THE PARTY IN THE WHITE HOUSE WILL DO EVERYTHING IN ITS POWER TO GET ITSELF ELECTED OR THE PARTY ELECTED AND IF NOT TELLING THE TRUTH CAN DO THIS THEN THEY WILL LIE.. AND WE KNOW THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION IS REALLY GOOD AT NOT TELLING THE TRUTH.
George,
You must be another guy who has nothing invested in the stock market, aye?
I’ve read a lot about Russia in this post… Let me set a few of you straight as to why Russia is supporting Syria….. Currently there is only one oil and natural gas pipeline going to Europe and that belongs to Russia… Saudi Arabia wants to build a pipeline to Europe, but it would have to go through Syria to get to Turkey and then Europe… The Russians don’t want that and so they are supporting the Syrian dictator so that pipeline will not get built….
ISIS is a Sunni operation. Saudi Arabia is Sunni… Make the connection? At the rate things are going Iraq will split up into the Ethnic areas it always was, with the Sunni and Kurd’s controlling the North…..
Imagine how uncomfortable the Russians are about the combination of Kurdish, Sunni and Saudi Oil and Natural Gas going to Europe at a much lower price than Russia Oil and Natural Gas not to mention the concern that Putin seems to value cutting of those supplies as he sees fit… :(
Mike
I think you are dead on with your market take, and I also think you read Martin Armstrong, and that is a good thing. You also have your own take on things, and I tend to agree with your reasoning more often than not. That may or may not be good for you………….
Do you have Dow numbers calculated for the final low and then confirmation of a resumption of the bull movement? Not asking you to disclose those; just wondering if you put those kinds of targets out as part of your service.
Disclosure: I am a Weiss subscriber, but not to your services. I do subscribe to Larry’s work, but not his “Speculator” service. Frankly, I love Larry, but I’m not paying that much for specific trade info I can do on my own once I have a trend identified and locked in. He and Martin Armstrong are clones in that respect, and I wont comment on who the originator of the trend info is.
Bottom line is I have only been reading your stuff because I am tied to other Weiss subscriptions, but even though you have a baby face, you seem to have an old soul. That is a good thing, btw. Give me your thoughts and and if I am suitably impressed, a minuscule addition to your revenue stream may result. Or not, up to you.
Regards
Bill (the cynical optimist)
There is ABSOLUTELY NO comparison to 2011. This dead cat bounce, actually, from a technical and, to a lesser extent cyclical standpoint, show all the hallmarks of a short squeeze and this actually fits perfectly with the bear market that is just getting going. There is simply no comparison now vs. 2011 when you look at Chinese real estate, stock market bubble, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Ukraine, Middle East, the Student loan and now auto loan crisis, the US States sovereign debt crisis, the dept/breadth of the market, the state of commodities now, the DEFLATION levels etc..etc..etc..is is ALL MUCH worse now…
Å”eader Tom pointed out that jobs do not count, it’s profits. I think this earnings season, but more probably next, will point to the falacy of this presumption. Jobs are the leader.
How can one make profits when no one can buy your goods or services?
The continuing expansion of income inequality will come home to roost. Concentration of wealth In the hands of a smaller and smaller number if consumers will ultimately exact it’s toll on earnings numbers.
The numbers that are coming out can no longer be believed. The Central Bankers and the Fed, re-named our Central Planners are intervening and manipulating on all possible levels and at every chance they get. The market or what’s left of it, is distorted and out of whack with the real world. This can’t go on much longer. The U.S. is not in a vacuum, what we do or don’t do affects the Global economy. The Fed didn’t hike rates because the global community is done with our prospering at their expense. We have not been good neighbors or good stewards of the honor bestowed upon us as world reserve currency. Unfortunately, we will reap what we’ve sown. The jig is up, the unveiling has taken place the wreckoning will soon follow. Holding Gold & Silver is a good start. Stack