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One of the most important aspects of the rising tide of geopolitical disruptions — as spelled out by the research I have done on war cycles — is how they are impacting the world’s financial markets.
As I’ve discussed many times, they are changing everything you thought you knew about investing.
Consider the U.S. property markets, which have already recovered from their lows quite nicely — even as mortgage rates have stabilized and started moving higher.
Or consider gold, which is now nearly 8 percent above its three-year bear market low of last year, even though the U.S. dollar is also sharply higher.
Or the U.S. stock markets, whose bull ride higher this year far exceeds what one would expect given the U.S. economy’s performance.
You are likely to see more of these types of moves in the months and years ahead. Moves that defy old rules of thumb. Moves that defy normal inter-market relationships.
Moves that dumbfound most U.S. analysts, especially those — still in the majority — who still focus merely on the U.S. economy and who ignore what’s happening globally.
Gold is set to rise with a stronger dollar. Commodity prices in general will soon bottom and head higher, even though the global economy remains lackluster. Equity markets and property prices will increase with rising interest rates.
So what then is the common denominator behind these market moves?
What’s the fuel that is causing the linkages between them to change, wreaking havoc on old rules of thumb and ushering in new relationships between markets, with the economy or with traditional logic?
Creating forces that you must grasp to truly protect and grow your wealth?
It’s international capital flows. Or put more simply, what I call “Following the Big Money.”
You’ve undoubtedly heard the saying “Follow the Money” in the past. But today, it’s more important than ever.
It’s not just domestic in scope; it’s international.
And it’s BIG.
Here’s why …
Today, we live in a world where governments are at war with each other. Propaganda wars. Trade wars. Currency wars.
Today, we live in a world where governments are getting ready to reignite “hot” wars: Russia/Ukraine. China/Japan. Israel/Gaza. Not to mention the rampage of ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
And today, we also live in a world where the bankrupt governments are waging wars against their very own citizens, via tax hikes, confiscatory schemes and capital controls.
All of this is causing capital in nearly every corner of the globe to take flight, leaving risky countries or investments and heading toward safer shores.
In a recent column, Martin told you of the middle-class and wealthy families he personally knows who are living in some of the riskiest places in the world … and how they are packing up their families and their capital, seeking safety in other venues.
Then, this week, he told you how terrorists and militias are turning into full-fledged armies, prompting even larger flows of flight capital.
For many months now I have told you that those capital flows are pointing directly toward the U.S.
Savvy European investors are moving their investments out of Europe in droves. Middle Eastern money is also coming to our shores. Savvy Chinese investors are moving funds to the U.S. hand over fist, especially into U.S. property markets.
So how can one measure the amount of capital that’s pouring into our relatively safe borders and markets?
It’s no easy task. Reason: The data on capital flows collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) often lag the actual flows by as much as a year’s time, making them subject to significant revisions.
Plus, the figures are subject to definitional problems, as capital flows are difficult to monitor and categorize.
Nevertheless, they give you a good handle on the amounts of capital that are flowing into our borders, supporting the big-picture conclusion that …
Capital is literally pouring into the U.S.
First, some notes. Both the BEA and the OECD keep track of our country’s “International Investment Position” (IIP). It’s a financial statement setting out the value and composition of our country’s external financial assets, assets that U.S. citizens and entities own abroad …
Versus our country’s liabilities, assets in the U.S. owned by foreign entities.
The net of the two is called our country’s “Net Investment Position” (NIP).
The data are further divided into several different categories, including our government’s reserves (including gold) … financial derivatives … government debt held overseas … foreign exchange and more.
For our purposes, we only need to look at the liabilities side of the data — financial assets in our country owned by foreigners.
And they show that the foreign ownership of U.S. assets is surging:
Total foreign ownership of U.S. assets (excluding complicated financial derivatives) rose from $16.594 trillion at the beginning of 2009 to a record $26.791 trillion at the end the first quarter of 2014.
That’s an astounding 61 percent gain in a short five years, a record for such a short time period.
It’s a total of more than 10 TRILLION DOLLARS that has flowed into U.S. investments from abroad.
Of that $10 trillion …
$4.088 trillion, or more than 40 percent, was directly invested in portfolios that include equity investments, mutual funds, and other equity-related investments.
Moreover …
Nearly 20 percent of the $4.088 trillion … or $820 billion, came flooding in from foreign shores in 2013 alone.
Considering that, at the start of 2013, the total market cap of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S. on all exchanges was just shy of $20 trillion, $820 billion in foreign investment means that foreign investors effectively purchased about 4 percent of our stock markets last year alone.
My view: Based on how the war cycles are ramping up for still another five years … and the fact that they indicate no relief until 2020 … capital is likely to continue to stampede into U.S. investments.
Reason: Despite our country’s problems, we remain one of the safest countries on the planet, with the most open, liquid and diverse markets in the world.
My words for you: Follow the big money; the large international capital flows. They are the single biggest key to protecting and growing your wealth — now and for many moons to come.
They are why U.S. equities are in long-term bull markets. They are largely why property prices are doing well, especially in high-end markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Miami.
Soon, they will also be an important force driving commodity prices higher, especially precious metals.
As always, I’ll be reporting on all of the above with regularity and frequency.
And remember, you can let me know what you think about this and other topics right here.
Best wishes,
Larry
P.S. Martin’s urgent video briefing is online now! Please click here now to watch! He will also be hosting a 2nd online briefing tomorrow at noon! Stayed tuned for more information.
Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader.
Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.
{ 134 comments }
There are a lot of Equity market around the World that are at All Time high’s and going higher as we speak.
Your correction Call has come and gone – Market Has broken up, there is another 8% by October/November.
Tough to Short Any Market. Even Tougher to buy Gold even if it goes up from Time to Time.
Talking Heads say markets don’t go down when War break outs (Civil War)
Don’t Agree but the Market Keeps going Higher and today is no exception.
Your Timing Skills are losing it Magic. Oh wait there is no such thing.
Larry: The projected important August 18, 2014 high in gold did not materialize.
Is there yet another cycle inversion in the works? If so, how may that affect your
other various highs and lows down the road?
Thanks.
Heinrich F.
Larry,
I have been reading your articles for 4 years now and in November 2011 you were calling for a big corection in all markets that has still not happened. What went wrong?
it is long time now that the “magic” System of Edelson foresee gold ready for big climb. always at different dates. I am afraid that the only interest is to sell subscriptions. The “magic” model evidently is not working. Considering also that Edelsone missed the “climb” of gold at the start of the year ( completely missed out). Now, before or later, the gold will rise again and someone will say to me ” I told you ” without considering the many false calls during the past months. I may look a bit hard on Edelson but, when you sell yourself a almost a Guru, then either you deliver or you must be open to critics. Nothing personal but I think that many people out there feels the same way.
Larry: I think you are a nearly 100% on precious metals forecasts and recommendations over the 7 years I have been with you, but about 0% on overall stock market moves. After the Dow crashed to the lows in the 7000 range, then climbed back to 9500, you and Martin BOTH strongly urged us to get out of stocks entirely. I did. Of course, since then, and in spite of your calls–at least 4–for substantial corrections, the market has flown to 17,000+. So, not only did I stupidly lose out from 12,000 to 7,000, I even more stupidly lost out from 9500-17,000. I have been CRUSHED following your stocks forecasts and recommendations (even while I have gained enormously from your precious metals forecasts and recommendations). Had I done the opposite in equites that you recommended, I would have doubled my money. Instead, I have remained on the sideline, awaiting your great correction. What do you say now–will stocks–the Dow and S&P in particular–keep going to 30,000, or is there actually going to be a correction? And as for preciouls metals, please keep up the good work and keep us advised on when that bottom is actually in so that we can enter the markets in a big way. Thanks.
Listen to this service and you’ll churn your $$ but not make any. Yea, they get lucky
at times but you throw enough s–t against the wall something will stick.
totally agree with your comments on usd strength, there are some big moves coming into ccys, eur,usd and even yen move could be enormous (40y chart). your war cycle headup have been spot on, well done.
Larry?
Hi Larry,
If the US is in a long term bull market, then can we buy some US based index ETF’s like Vanguard or SPY or DIA, just as we are for china.
Respectfully
Ditto the comment above by Rich. I got out of equities at the beginning of Feb. 2014 and have missed out on a 20% gain in my investments. I don’t think you are doing all that well with the gold recommendations, either. Even though you called a “bottom” in gold a couple months ago, it’s still languishing downward. You recommended a gold ETF, UGLD, recently and I bought some, and gold went down immediately afterwards, UGLD with it. Are you losing your touch? I’d love to believe that gold is going to $5000 by 2016 as you have said, but I find it hard to believe.
LARRY I THINK GOLD AND NAT GAS WILL BE THE BEST MOVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS BUY THEM LOW AND SELL THEM HIGH. THANKS LARRY FOR CALLING THE BIG SELL OFF IN GOLD LAST YEAR.
larry, you are calling for a high of 30000 or so on the dow at some point. what do you think will happen after that?
I have to agree with the comments by Rich and Hank. Your stock market calls have been painfully wrong. By following your advice on the overall stock market, I have been mainly on the sidelines, waiting for this imminent correction you have called for so many times. I have been waiting for years and kick myself everytime it makes a new high. I can only blame myself, as ultimately I am responsible for managing my own money, but when the correction finally does come, I hope you don’t take credit for predicting it in advance, as you have been predicting it for several years now.
Business as usual at money and markets–you’ll do better on your own.
Larry , Is this flood of capital selective in its purchase of specific equities /sectors , or is this a case of buying the TOTAL MARKET INDEX , and standing back for the overall market increase ..
Following the big money is all well and good. The real problem is that the big money can get in and out, create market turmoil especially when they decide to get out, long before the little guy can get a trade done. The little guy needs to preserve capital, and it seems to only way to do that is by being ultra conservative and making his changes (sector to sector, stock to stock, or even getting in and out completely….it’s all market timing) well in advance of the big money. What is the risk? A little bit of upside was missed versus the constant cycle of holding tight until it comes back……..not a good scenario for a retiree. And you say?
As a long-time subscriber, I’m very frustrated and discouraged by the behavior of my gold investments. Talk about dead money and lost opportunity cost as the equity market continues to surge to new high’s!
Bruce if you invested in gold, especially miners, in January you made a killing by March.
But if you were one of Larry’s subscribers you missed the big run thanks to his sophisticated computer models projecting $950 gold, and were instructed to go short just to add insult to injury.
How a 30 year “gold trading” veteran that’s called every turn (supposedly) in the mkt since the 70’s can get it so wrong is beyond me.
bruce … re: ” lost opportunities ” and the market will continue doing so ….going up . You would not believe how many analysts have called for a correction at least since early 2014 …. just some dips and THAT will continue – Larry is not the only one waiting for a BIG correction and misjudging the market moves .
The same thing will happen to the prec. metals once they start again ….nobody will believe the bull will be back again in prec. metals …just like in equities .
Larry, In your last newsletter you said that a major sell signal for silver is 19.20, and Yesterday silver closed below 19.20. What does this mean for someone who is invested in silver for some time now and in the future. Is 19,20 now the new bottom or is silver going lower?
Thanks
Gary Lockart
didn’t give you the answer to that question today, did he.
GARY ….ever see Larry coming here ? For silver in general if the last low gets broken $ 18.61 …$ 17 – $ 16 is an easy target but since everything can get overdone ( and will ) $ 15 is also possible . I’m sure with these lows there won’t be too many days to stay that low .
I’m transferring a message from Martin Armstrong which he wrote in early 2014 :
If $ 1356 doesn’t hold …it goes lower CORRECT
If $ 1326 doesn’t hold … it gets lower CORRECT
If $ 1280 doesn’t hold …. it gets lower CORRECT
If $ 1251 doesn’t hold it gets lower …..still waiting
Until all the way down to $ 1155 and $ 904
Now lets see if Armstrong gets it right
Gary …Sept. 7th on kitco …silver at $ 19.08
We’re still waiting…
I don’t know, Larry. Maybe your theory is sound. However, I have to argue the question of why would any money want to “pour” into only our economy where stocks are over-valued , no real growth is happening in our markets, and we are not the ( only game ) in town. Heck, I’d be buying the world’s best real estate or art or Asian markets ! You have said as have others that the ( emerging markets is where growth is happening and money is being made ). Why on earth would I only or any ; invest in the US markets as a foreign investor !
What happens with this scenario if the US ends up in a full fledged war of it’s own? Also I have read that central banks have poured a very large amount in to the US market. Is this what you mean by ” follow the money “.
I have been a subscriber since your weekly column for RWR was posted under the banner of Uncommon Wisdom, Every Monday morning you made a lot of reco’s for making money back then. Then out of the blue the decision was made to make you the headliner for Money and Markets. Recommendations for making money now has, for the most part, disappeared.
Now you’ve disappeared to Humpday and have been replaced by he who makes all the decisions at M&M. I used to look so forward to your column on Monday morning to line up my week in the market. Now the trading week is half over before we see your column and your column is relatively the same with no Reco’s for making money. I
I think you should consider changing the name of RWR to RBR, Real Boring Report! You talk about war cycles a lot; how about recommending some company’s profiting from these wars? Larry, the writing is on the wall for you at M&M; hope you can read it.
Hi Larry,
Just wondering what gives with the metals markets. We have been hearing about a bottom for months and yet they seem to be sliding lower. Are we on a slippery slope again?
Anxious and frustrated.
Hi!, Larry:
Your points regards WHY OUR Stock Market is being ramped up by foreign investors, speculators and/or scared money is clear to me but what’s bothering me is that these people are trading safety for dilution of their capital and for what eventual purposes? They perceive that their money is going to a safer zone than their own but what protects their capital from monetary dilution here in the US; that is unless they do flee to precious metals but to do that they don’t need our shores do they? They could buy precious metals in all kinds of different places in the world without placing any stake in purchasing precious metals in the US where OUR great government, for its’ own security reasons that may develop, could confiscate them from foreign accounts or am I suffering from a paranoid delusion here? For the life of me, Larry, it’s been very difficult for me to understand why the Chinese have bothered to purchase OUR Treasury securities, when their experiences over many decades should have shown them that their move finally into precious metals should have begun long before it did and putting aside any considerations towards purchasing OUR Treasuries. Reminds me of the publication by the American Institute For Economic Researches expose from long ago titled: “Stand Still Little Lambs To Be Shorn!” Also invokes what Thomas Edison once quipped to a lady who had him justify to her why he shouldn’t be looked at as being a failure; when it took him so many experiments to fashion his first incandescent light bulb. He told her that not one person on this planet knows even 1 millionth of 1% about anything! In the meantime I’m buying all the silver I can afford, in the belief that it has many major prospects for appreciation in price in both good times and bad. Keep up your great work!!
RUSS SMITH, CA. (One Of Our Broke, Fiat Money States)
resmith1942@gmail.com
Hi Larry,
Several times over the last few months you have recommended exiting US stocks pending a 10 – 20% pullback. The pullback has not materialized and you have not mentioned the pullback in the last few weeks. Are you still seeing that or is the major influx of capital from foreign sources into our equity markets overtaking that?
Ed
Larry,
So no more market correction as you stated last month on several occassions? And, Gold closed at 1,266 yesterday. You called for a bottom last December and if not, May. Has Gold bottomed? You seemed to be softening your postion on a stock market correction and undecided on a bottom for Gold.
Larry,
With all due respect, from reading probably hundreds of different precious metal predictions over the past couple of years, the only one I find to be accurate on fundamentals,trends and TIMING is…Martin Armstrong.
Although you are right philosophically (and agree with Martin’s POV, your timing has left something to be desired as Dan Macke has posted
Hi Larry,
is a long time you say that gold has reached a bottom, but despite the political tensions of the past few months has never taken off (such as mining stocks and commodities).
Do not you think that the “big money” is not in any way want this to happen now or in the future?
Why would investors put money into gold or gold stocks when the overall equities markets
are booming, if there money is safe in the U.S.?
I have good solid gold shares that have done nothing but go down and bounce around the
the bottom for 3 years.
Please give me a good reason why they would go up.
Larry, good piece on the war signals. Also, glad your factoring in these events into your positions.
However, it’s 1:30 East time, & Silver has broken your floor for a sell & Gold is only $ 9.00 from breaking this floor you set in the Aug issue & the follow up piece of 8-27. Sure appreciate some advise here,
Thanks, Bill Miller
Larry,
I appreciate all of your reports and comments. Is there a place we can get current foreign flows of money into this country? Thanks
Steve
Larry, I agree with what you said, however it sounds somewhat opposite to what you had said 1 or 2 months ago. If I recall you said that a stock market correction, lasting several months, was to start sometime in the second half of this year. Is that no longer part of the picture ? or just postponed ?
Floyd … read your own stuff …” a stock market correction is expected in the 2nd half of this year ” … we are into the 2nd half since July ….we still have 4 month to go .
Sometimes I can’t blame Larry for not answering questions like that …does he attract only d.u.m.m.i.e.s. ?
I’m counting on you, please be right.
If you believe that one, I know where you can get a bridge cheap, even has tolls. lol.
Larry you wrote “Gold is set to rise with a stronger dollar.” You might be correct.You certainly know for more than me. However, this prediction appears to be an unsupported. As a scientist, I always look for the basis of statements, especially predictions. Yet I didn’t see a specific basis in today’s column for this particular prediction. Indeed a WSJ commodities article on gold and palladium published yesterday (http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-palladium-fall-as-dollars-rally-eclipses-russia-worries-1409667243) attributed the drop in the price of gold yesterday to “pressure from a stronger dollar (that) snuffed out investor appetite for the haven assets.” Thus it seems to me that while money is flowing into the United States, as you documented, at least for now that money can find other investments within the United States. Can you please provide support for why you expect gold to increase in price relative to the dollar. Thank you.
Could you comment briefly in one of your columns on James Rickards book, “The Death of Money”?
a little less bravado these days, eh larry?
Larry,
I have to agree with the comments by Rich and Hank. Your stock market calls have been painfully wrong. By following your advice on the overall stock market, I have been mainly on the sidelines, waiting for this imminent correction you have called for so many times. I have been waiting for years and kick myself everytime it makes a new high. I can only blame myself, as ultimately I am responsible for managing my own money, but when the correction finally does come, I hope you don’t take credit for predicting it in advance, as you have been predicting it for several years now. This fluff piece today is nice, but gold fell $23 yesterday. is it going to hold the line at $1257 ? you never mentioned this today ?
Agree Aaron D. Being on the sidelines & watching the CNBC crowd cheer at every new high hurts.
But emotions aside, nothing is over – we’re still in the game.
Gold is still trading in a range & many miners are not THAT much off their January lows with huge upside potential. Also, equities in oil, nat gas, ag’s, etc will be huge winners going forward. A 20% (or so) market correction will make a nice entry point for commodity based (and other) equities before the blast off.
Unlike other commentators here I have more faith in Larry.
Good investing to all.
I’ve been following Larry for almost 10 years now and I can only say it’s about the same with his predictions as anybody else, about 50/50 accuracy overtime. I don’t think anybody can predict trend changes in the market overtime. The reason I follow him is not for these trend predictions but rather his sense for predicting the topics that will dominate the future agenda for many markets and that have helped me make sound decicions for many years.
Frederick ….Trend changes can be predicted … read Martin Armstrong .
According to cycle projections, the Dow 30 should pull back to about mid march numbers, going into the end of november, And the S&P should pull back to around april’s low. Your best bet is to get in a little at a time. Stocks like aa up 34%+ since 3/14, ego up 16% since 6/14, pkx up 21% since 2/14 and slw up .28% since 8/13. Don’t wait on the best advice without paying for it!!!! There may be a big pullback, but get in for the long and short of it.
Larry
You just stated early on in this letter that Gold and Silver would be bottoming soon. You said the same thing two months ago. So what is it?, has Gold and Silver reached the bottom yet or are you still guessing?
he’s still guessing as are several gold bulls. timing is not their forte` and if you actually listen to them you are only going to get burned.
Larry,
You’ve been a big supporter of Asian markets, feeling that China, Malaysia and Indonesia would lead economic growth for some time to come with the U.S. lagging behind. Yet, international money is flowing into the U.S. and pushing up both equity and high end property prices as you have pointed out. So the investment opportunity lies in Asia, but those benefiting are parking their money in secure assets in America. So who is really the winner of this phenomenon?
Bill
Hi Larry!
The chart for stock market margin debt indicates that a condition now exists to induce a severe sell-off in equity markets, perhaps even before the always-precarious Sun in Scorpio planetary influence in late October, annually. The current transit of Jupiter in Leo (until August, 2015), which is the sun sign of gold, assures me that your prognostication for the PMs should be accurate. Of course, Jupiter in Leo (speculation and party time) also is keeping Wall Street from the normal sell-off that should be occurring now.
Your interpretation concerning the war cycles can be validated because the short cycle (18 years) and the long cycle (54 years) are very revealing, as my 2008 book depicted.
The number 18 is the TIME number and 54 is the triplication(!)—3 is the WHOLE number—of the time number. (NOTE: You might find the cover of my book worth looking at on the Amazon website: Universal Numbers and the Number 9 Destiny of Humankind.)
P.S. Based on the 2008 Jupiter-in-Capricorn transit/influence, I was able to predict the “financial catastrophe” within 17 days on September 17 (number of suffering), 2008. Hence, incorporation of planetary influences/astrology into your predictive financial/economic repertoire should expand your effectiveness regarding accuracy.
WOW, you just can’t be serious?
William …are a you a Crawford fan ? Those guys using astrology are just as poor as what Larry brings – no difference .
Dear William
It sounds to me as if your book in financial terms is aligned with Uranus.
Mr. Maynard: I don’t know about planetary aliignments, but I can sure tell you that, if Mr. Edelson himself has been investing according to his predictions he’s been putting out, he’s seeing stars!!!
Larry,
The silent cover-up or whistling while walking past the grave yard seems to have passed us by without any major incident. I’m talking about the fact that the US Government could “not repatriate” the Gold it was holding for Germany. First they said it would take three (3) years (instead of (3) months) to do so and then they eventually dropped the idea all together.
Angela Merkwel had to pay the price politically in Germany as this pressure to bring Germany’s Gold back home was brought on by her own people. And now, in spite of all the domestic heat, she has simply chosen to ignore their request and gamble that the political costs won’t ruin her reign as Chancellor of Germany.
Point is : surely people like yourself have seen this and know what the meaning of same is for the Gold Market and yet, there is simply silence on the subject .. or is it me … am I just being too paranoid or too much of a Gold Bug?
Peter
Larry,
some time ago you said that gold would only explode when the USA experienced a soverign debt problem. You have not mentioned this again for a long time . What has changed your mind to focus on other things.
I truth is Larry does not have to be right or wrong because he already got paid in advance.
What do you think is the future for Australian stocks?
Also a couple of weeks ago you advised to get out of the share market as you said a sizable fall in the market was imminent. What is your view now?
What will the Impact of Correction in Dow be on Gold Oil prices. Won’t they move in tandem?
Larry:
Today–9/4/14 silver is at your sell price of $19.20.I am a member of the Real Wealth
newsletter. Also your recent gold sell price is very close. Are we to sell silver at this
sell price now and wait for your new buy signal? or will you flash alert us to definitely
sell silver or gold even though you gave the sell prices in your last real wealth updates?
Thank You
Norah Kunz
Larry:
you were expecting a large pullback in the equity market; do you still hold your stance?
on the other Hand you expected a strong breakout of Gold; so far not Happening.
still of this opinion?
regards
rene
does edelson ever answer his critics??
Naw! Only answers subscription questions.
I read that China & Russia are getting out of U.S. Treasury’s. The article said that Belgium is buying them up, but that is no dought a lie. Who do you think is the Fed. Reserve?
it is long time now that the “magic” System of Edelson foresee gold ready for big climb. always at different dates. I am afraid that the only interest is to sell subscriptions. The “magic” model evidently is not working. Considering also that Edelsone missed the “climb” of gold at the start of the year ( completely missed out). Now, before or later, the gold will rise again and someone will say to me ” I told you ” without considering the many false calls during the past months. I may look a bit hard on Edelson but, when you sell yourself a almost a Guru, then either you deliver or you must be open to critics. Nothing personal but I think that many people out there feels the same way.
And the climb start of the year was the easiest call of all – a simple double bottom at 1180.
Because of this I had a feeling that when he started saying the bottom is in and a big rally is coming Aug Sept that he is also likely wrong.
And even wonder if he sold out to the powers that be, get people to sell the bottom and buy the top.
right along with the others above. do you believe gold will break through your stated low of $1260? if so, how bad could that scenario get and in what kind of time frame? the gold situation has, quite frankly, stretched out for a very, very long time since your initial and subsequent advice, alerts, warnings, etc. the world however is getting crazier by the moment. the correlations you speak of through the days seem to be broken. how much more has to occur in the world for your predictions about those commodities to actually begin to manifest in substantial ways? an assassination perhaps? naw, the investing world would shrug that off in a day, two tops. thank you
gold spot hit a closing low of 1257 @ 7:17pm est. Do we buy, sell or hold for a new low.
Larry, dead on calling the war cycles seems that’s panning out but your calls on the direction of the markets have not . what happen to the market call to correct ? has not happened . you need to buckle down and work a little harder to earn my hard earned money again , have to call it like it is. but with that said bought junx at 14 and sold for a
54% gain. that was your call nice job. regards Joe.
Larry and his wars. We have had wars for thousands of years. AND will continue to have wars.
Miners tearing apart at the seams and breaking down on their bases – usually a leading indicator gold is headed south.
Gee, Larry. Is your crystal ball getting cloudy? Gold and silver keep sinking lower and lower, even though you told us that they had both already bottomed.
In his three must see videos he was 100% certain that the low is in.
Looks like Goldman reiterated it’s $1050 call today. When a big bank puts out a PR like this it means watch out cause the powers that be will make it happen. They forecast 1280 last year and it hit 1180. Maybe 950 this time?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101971259
for those that don’t believe gold is and has been grossly manipulated down by the likes of goldman and other big boys i ask you, where’s the beef?? cancelled my subscription today. this guy hasn’t a clue or if he does it ain’t in the subscriber’s favor. his failure to address the concerns written in this comment section ought to tell you something. the only good advice he’s given the last few years is to make sure you put stops in. hope the rest of you wake up soon. you see friends in this troubled environment if gold isn’t climbing it means it’s being manipulated!!! it’s not going anywhere until the big boys buy all the physical up they can get. it’s just that plain and simple.
randy ….where is the beef ? Why does everybody says ” gold gets manipulated down ” when it goes up it’s not manipulated ? Read Armstrong … there is a cycle for gold – period . Armstrong thought ( oops ? No computer ? No – not at that time ) that gold hit it’s high late 2010 … he was off by about 8 month . Gold overran …to $ 1900 instead of $ 1500-1700 . So, since late 2011 it’s clean-up time . Goldman Sachs does not know more than Armstrong but they are traders . Get it out of your head that STUPID manipulation crap … all markets get manipulated at times but it NEVER changes the trend …NEVER . Every gold bull has been so brain washed over the last 14 years – 2000 – that they all talk the talk from what they read from the (unqualified gold writers ) .
Just terrible . Clear your head and realize that gold has cycles .
of course ALL markets are manipulated, all the time…that’s the point! gold is being GROSSLY manipulated now. when the big boys are done buying, gold will go up and they will make money by selling it to fools who buy high just like equity manipulation. this is why you FOLLOW THE MONEY…the big boy’s money. cycles? ya, war cycles?? LOL! considering the state of the world gold should be $5000 per now, but it’s not and that has to do with MANIPULATION. and the trend is up? are you kidding?
by the way, enjoy your edelson subscription/s. you must be making lots of money.
I agree with Randy.
he comet of Mr Edelson lost the shine..if ever had, or maybe he fooled us all.
So, are you giving us the equities “buy” sign? I’ve been sitting on the sidelines since January when you told us to sell. Meanwhile I’ve missed the gains while the Market is soaring waiting for the big correction you predicted. Please give me some advice.
Bill
Bill …after all that you have experienced with Larry about the markets – you still need his advice ? Have you not learned something ?
Heidi… I believe you follow Armstrong. Isn’t he predicting 5000 gold like Larry? Does he have a different time frame?
John, Larry has gold at $ 2500 by April 2015 first of all ….Armstrong has a low for gold by 2015 ( October ) unless gold get’s to $ 1050- $ 950 in 2014 .
Yes Armstrong has gold at $ 5000 but I don’t think that is before 2020 .
Hi Larry,
The buy price for IAG $3.22, have you made any changes. GDX as you know when much lower than $25.50 and I was able to buy at a lower price. I guess you have not put out any further recommendation or buy list, please keep us posted.
Thanks,
Brian
You are driving me nuts. Just a few weeks ago you advised to dump all US and Euro equities because a huge correction was about to drop the market. Now you present this very bullish article that US equities are going to rise substantially. I’m pretty sure that your pessimistic rant of a few weeks ago was more emotional than analytical. But I took your advice and went to cash, and missed some nice gains. Please don’t take us on these wild swings. Maybe you need someone you can sit down with to calm you down when you get so emotional about things.
aren’t you the fool. Larry has not been “right” for a long time now. Expensive learning experience on your part.
Larry,
I recently cancelled my subscription to Elliott Wave Theory and Financial Forecasts because he continues to move out his predictions for a 90% equity market decline while the market continues to move opposite his predictions since 2008. Your RWR subscription costs a lot less but renewal unlikely if your current performance keeps up especially as your fellow Weiss publications writer Mike Larson continues to provide specific recommendations showing substantial gains.
Do you still believe in your forecasts for the DOW and gold to more than double after near term corrections?
Also, there are reports that capital is flowing heavily from continental Europe to England for safety and driving up real estate and financial market prices there. What are the percentages of European flight capital going to the various safe havens in the last 3 months?
Robert M.
Dear Robert, do not know if he even read our comments.
Too busy selling subscriptions and doing seminars, foreseeing gold at 5000 and whatever else. Very very disapppointed by the Guru
could it be possible all this foreign money is being pump into our market just to be withdrawn all at about the same time to purposely crash our market? I really think that this is a time to be real careful here as this would destroy our economy. There is a few countries that would love to do this and it could happen at anytime.
All this is just too much.Some highly respected commentators say the US is in a fix that it has to collapse through the weight of debt, the $ will disappear as a reserve currency but the above says that markets in the US including property will go up due to money flows, best to watch what is happening in our own back yard(country) and act accordingly.Iam waiting for precious metals to move up.Have been waiting for a long time bought at higher prices.Will keep the subscription till the end of the year..
Frederick ….not all is lost if you can hold to at least until 2017/2018 . Read M. Armstrong in the meantime …it’s free . It will keep you informed …don’t need to spend extra $$$ .
Not to lose faith completely … what ever you have – gold or miners – check back to the lows made in late 2008 and how fast they recovered in the 1st year and gained more into 2011 . The next run will be like that and better but 1st gold will go to the extreme …..opposite from 2011 .
Not to give up completely on some gold writers / analysts there are still some good ones out there and they don’t tell you b.s. … really .
Mr Edelson has found his gold mine..the many subscriptions to his “must have” newsletter.
That is the only thing he cares to do I am afraid. Moreover, dedicated to us all, this guy doesn’t even spend one second reading our comments so I shall stop here to bother. I know the feeling ….the need to say it..when the mag is full is full
Hi All, I agree with Larry that the bottom in PM’s is in. I don’t think anybody has made the perfect call on them, not even Armstrong who I think is calling for the low to hit gold in 2015.75. I think Larry and Armstrong are both right in their $5000 gold call in the future, but timing is everything. My call is $5400 in May 2019, but more near term I still see gold hitting $2300 by November 2015. IMO this is a totally manipulated market from start to finish; not to keep the PM’s from rising but just to make them rise in an orderly fashion. I will have to change my call only if (1) we make a new gold low, or (2) we do not come extremely close to my PO’s. IMO now is the time to be invested 100% in PM miners, but NOT in the ETF’s. Buy the real thing whether it’s gold phyz or gold miners!!
Hi All, I agree with Larry that the bottom in PM’s is in. I don’t think anybody has made the perfect call on them, not even Armstrong who I think is calling for the low to hit gold in 2015.75. I think Larry and Armstrong are both right in their $5000 gold call in the future, but timing is everything. My call is $5400 in May 2019, but more near term I still see gold hitting $2300 by November 2015. IMO this is a totally manipulated market from start to finish; not to keep the PM’s from rising but just to make them rise in an orderly fashion. I will have to change my call only if (1) we make a new gold low, or (2) we do not come extremely close to my PO’s. IMO now is the time to be invested 100% in PM miners, but NOT in the ETF’s. Buy the real thing whether it’s gold phyz or gold miners!!
Hi All, I agree with Larry that the bottom in PM’s is in. I don’t think anybody has made the perfect call on them, not even Armstrong who I think is calling for the low to hit gold in 2015.75. I think Larry and Armstrong are both right in their $5000 gold call in the future, but timing is everything. My call is $5400 in May 2019, but more near term I still see gold hitting $2300 by November 2015. IMO this is a totally manipulated market from start to finish; not to keep the PM’s from rising but just to make them rise in an orderly fashion. I will have to change my call only if (1) we make a new gold low, or (2) we do not come extremely close to my PO’s. IMO now is the time to be invested 100% in PM miners, but NOT in the ETF’s. Buy the real thing whether it’s gold phyz or gold miners!!
RC …..as you say ” in my opinion “….that’s the diff. between Armstrong and the little people…Armstrong has NO opinion …he feeds the computer and VOLA !
Your $ 2300 for gold by Nov. 2015 is just as crazy as Larry’s gold idea for April 2015 at $ 2500 . With your idea gold needs to climb by $ 1000 in about 13 month .
Good luck with your theory . Maybe you are Larry’s brother ? lol
I like your thinking, Larry, but what do you know about this looming catastrophe?
http://click.oilandenergyinvestor.com/t/CA/AAESuw/AAEivw/AAQWhQ/AAIU1Q/NDAwNDYxfGh0dHA6Ly9wcm8xLm1vbmV5bWFwcHJlc3MuY29tLzI1NzE0NS8-ZW1haWw9cmNvcmV5MTIyMyU0MGFvbC5jb20mYW1wO3dlbWFpbD1vZWkmYT04Jm89NzAzMzEmcz03NDQzMSZ1PTI2NzkwOSZsPTQwMDQ2MSZyPU1DJmc9MA./AQ/1IEU
A lot of negative press here from your readers / subscribers. Do answer the question that was asked. The US$ and price of gold are negatively correlated. When one goes up, typically the other goes down and vice versa. You have been extolling the fact that trillions of foreign investment is flowing into the US stock market, further strengthening the US$ yet you project a rising gold price. Explain please
No, he doesn’t answer a single comment. For a while he disabled comments. Only recently can we post and boy has it ever been NEGATIVE.
Whenever you get into an inflationary game in a country things are predictable. Whenever you get into a global standard currency with world wide political tugs of war it is no longer predictable. Because the markets allow derivatives ( betting or gambling) and then using the gambling to move the markets , the market itself is controlled by world wide bookies and mafias. You cant win at that. The only gambling I see fit for anything is to sell the extreme long and short options at the same time in a spread so father time is at your back. It is always good to be the bookie or the house but bad to be the player. gambling against the world wide house. No one can predict anything until there is a gold standard. If the dollar loses world reserve currency and then someone else becomes the world reserve currency nothing will be fixed. If there is a world wide catastrophic fiat demise and we go to a gold standard us plebs will make a fortune in fair markets. Otherwise welcome to the life of a slave as long as fiat is around.
Despite War in the Middle East and Europe and huge amounts of money printing in the USA England and now Europe gold refuses to go up.
What will it take to get gold moving up I have given up predicting.Jim Sinclair an expert predicted that gold would be 3500 dollars an ounce by September 14
Jim Sinclair has been dead wrong on gold since it peaked in 2011. “Gold is going to and through $3500” – how many times did he post that on his website, and off course gold did nothing but go the other way.
And while he was advising everyone to take certs. out on their good mining shares he sold millions in his mining company Tanzanian Royalty.
Bob …yeah….for somebody who claims to know gold and deals with it for centuries …I think he is worse than Larry . In early 2013 Sinclair wrote : You will never see gold under $ 1600 again . Eric Sprott mentioned in 2013 that Sinclair is his hero . Sprott lost $ mill. in 2013 and even had to sell part of his Sprott Company already . There will be many sad stories to read before the bull starts running again . But maybe in about 12 month from now every gold/silver bull will feel better again and I can see Larry’s BIG headlines already :
I TOLD YOU SO !!!!!
That’s spot on Heidi. And I bet 10 years from now if Larry is still doing this he will claim it as another turn in the gold market that he called, even though he was as wrong as any of them, but that won’t matter cause it’ll be just a process of lather rinse repeat with unassuming newbies. Hopefully with the internet investors can dig deeper to expose charlatans.
Unfortunately those who were bamboozled will never touch anything gold again, even if they have the money.
As for Sinclair, there is already lots out there on how he operates and his true motives.
Lots can be found on Trader Dan’s Market views in the comments section, everyday they peel the onion back exposing the gold bug community.
3500 dollars an ounce by September 14 but 2050
All this money is flowing into the US. What happens when the US loses Reserve Currency status? China, Russia, Brazil, and others are setting this up.
So gold is now in bear Market territory!
Sohail…..not really according to M.Armstrong ..if gold hits $ 700-$600 it will be but not even by $ 1000 because $ 1000 is still support or slightly under
larry – by the sounds of most of the inputs above, it seems you owe us a quick update and explanation as to your position on these very critical topics. it would appear that you are about to lose many a believer (subscriber). the impression seems to becoming that we have been taken for a ride. you just might want to address that straight up and quickly.
Why is gold still going down, why are gold miners still going dowm
Thanks,
Mike
been a subscriber for many years. Very disappointed in your bottom for gold at 1265 as it is now 10 dollars below that call. Losing much money on your recos. More disappointed that you did not advised what to do now.No letter today on money &markets
Maybe Martin Armstrong can help ?
Next bull wave ….2015.75 to 2020
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/06/coming-ecm-book-64-year-gold-cycle/
Bob … Dan Norcini …Trader Dan markets…. I noticed that too . I guess Sinclair let him go some yrs. ago because they couldn’t see eye on gold ? Good for Dan .
To all :
GOLD does NOT rise because of war :
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/31/gold-at-2000/
Yikes… another huge loss today… how low can it go….. :(
Karl ….lower than you can imagine !!!!
Don’t worry Jim Sinclair is now predicting that we are in a trading range heading for 2100 dollars an ounce no time frame and no comment on his previous assertion that gold would hit 3500 Dollars by September 2014.
The truth would appear to be that no one knows but i guess you can’t sell tickets at 100 000 dollars per attendee with that can of message. I am a uk Citizen living in the UK so i find the comments on here very interesting.
Please explain how we can have international capital flowing into our equity markets yet have a 20% pullback in those markets ?
Larry Edelson self declared, world’s leading gold and market forecaster…….what an idiot.
I saw that on facebook and shook my head.
Anybody can call himself a guru as long as he has balls to say so.
By the way , i live in a country close to ukraine. Gold will never ever explode couse a short lived war in ukraine, and yes this is over by end next summer, putin just lke to show some power.
Israel and palestinia have been on off on war for decade now if you not have guessed it yet. So no of the ongoing war WILL affect gold.
Larry, I would like to know just what is going on with P/M’s. You have stated that gold would rise in price in the near future back in July and August, and that gold would go up even in a rising dollar environment. However this is not happening and to the contrary gold is falling dramatically while the dollar is rising. you also said that you did not believe gold would fall below 1280 area, but it is now in the high 1240 area and looks to want to fall further. You have said, I believe that gold is not manipulated. However, I do not think you are aware of the power of the Rothschild’s and their control of the Federal Reserve and the money at their disposal. They will do what ever they need to protect the Fiat dollar. I would appreciate you view on my thoughts.
Thanks
Mike Denis
Larrys view as per his FB site “If gold closes the week out under 1240 it’s lights out”
You told the subscribers you are 99.99% sure the bottom is in. ?????????
Well good thing Larry covered himself by the .001% outside chance that he’s wrong.
This is what makes him the “greatest forecaster” the world is ever seen, just talk out of both sides of your mouth.
Today the Guru has talked again but I am very disappointed he really avoid all the criticism and do not bother to give an explanation about all the “false” calls he made. His perfect model did not work so well.
Larry
More negative than positive feedback on your forecasting record. I known its hard game but I think you need to explain what went wrong in your gold forecasting model . It did not work in the current environment. Maybe theres a reason.. ???. But do review and explain where it went wrong. We can all make mistakes. !! Review and get it back on track dont avoid it or explain the reason in riddles ??
John
Larry
look at the Mike Larson model Safe Money it might help your newsletter !!
John
Don’t know who has been worse Larry or Harry (Dent).