“Grexit” is so 2012. The latest European threat is “Brexit” — the risk that Great Britain will pull out of the European Union.
Market Roundup
Late Friday, British Prime Minister David Cameron secured a new deal with European politicians. It gives the U.K. some concessions, including the ability to pay fewer benefits to migrants from the EU, which Cameron hoped would quell an anti-EU push from political opponents and some members of his own Conservative party.
But EU-skeptics weren’t satisfied. Then over the weekend, one of the most powerful politicians in Great Britain, London Mayor Boris Johnson, said he wanted out of the EU. A decisive referendum now looms on June 23, one that will determine whether Britain pulls out of the 28-country Union or not.
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| London Mayor Boris Johnson favors a Brexit. |
The market reaction was swift and severe in currencies. The British pound plunged almost 3 cents against the U.S. dollar, its biggest one-day loss since the depths of the credit crisis in October 2009. It’s now trading at its weakest level against the buck in seven years, and it also lost ground against the euro.
The concern is that the British economy will suffer if trade and other economic links with the EU get severed. London could also lose prominence as a financial capital, with jobs and power migrating to other cities in continental Europe over time.
The bigger issue for investors (outside of those looking to profit from moves in the British pound) is that the Brexit crisis is just the latest in a long series of them emanating from Europe. The PIIGS debt crisis. The migrant influx crisis. The European banking sector crisis.
They keep on coming — and European politicians are having a tougher and tougher time coming up with solutions. That tells me Europe is fraying at the edges, a longer-term problem for the European economy and European shares.
| “Continue to avoid the large European banks … and keep an eye on this Brexit threat.” |
So continue to avoid the large European banks, as I’ve been advocating for a long time, and keep an eye on this Brexit threat.
If polling over the next few months suggests the “Leave the EU” campaign is gaining steam, it will likely lead to more market turmoil at a time when stocks are dealing with plenty of it already.
How about you? Do you think Brexit risk is a big problem for stocks? Or are other factors more important? Will the collapsing pound encourage you to book a flight to London? Or is it not on your radar screen? What about the other European crises — are you worried about what impact they’ll have here in the States? Let me hear about it online.
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I hope you had an enjoyable weekend, and I’m glad some of you took time out of your schedule to comment on the outlook for the retail industry.
Reader Bob shared his take on the Amazon.com (AMZN) issue, saying: “I believe a large part it is Amazon. Plus, consumers have been spending money on home improvements, new furniture, and new homes.
“We own a small retail store and many of our top customers in 2014 hardly spent any money in 2015. We still had a good relationship with them and they all were doing what I mentioned above, so their money was going away from clothing and fashion. I also see UPS and FedEx drivers on a daily basis and they tell me their fellow drivers who service residential say it is amazing how many more home deliveries they are making versus several years ago.”
Reader Brian said the biggest problem is paychecks, plain and simple. His comments: “Until the living wage goes up, I’m unsure who the retailers think will buy their products. Real income hasn’t gone up since the ’70s. Almost all expansion since then has been based on credit. There’s only so much credit to go around unless cash starts flying out of helicopters.”
Reader Johan also picked up on that train of thought, saying: “First, labor participation is low, while unemployment is 5%. So it’s 5% of a smaller universe, meaning less income to spend at retail. Second, the population is aging and the ‘echo boom’ is paying down college debt, not buying homes, appliances, and baby clothes like the Boomers did.
“We need more good jobs and people in them to fuel growth. But I don’t see that happening soon.”
Reader David S. pushed back against the idea that Wal-Mart Stores’ (WMT) problems begin and end with Amazon. He said: “I shop at Wal-Mart on a regular basis and what I see being bought there (food, clothing, household supplies of all sorts, car supplies, sports equipment, etc.) by the low-income masses is not what would ordinarily be bought on Amazon. So it’s not obvious to me that there’s that much competition between the two.
“It also seems to me that the prices aren’t much different. And of course, there’s no wait for delivery at Wal-Mart, and they have an on-line purchase option if anyone craves it. In my area (San Francisco Bay), rents have increased dramatically and that might have a greater effect on in-store retail sales than it does for on-line retail.”
Thanks for taking some time out to comment. If I didn’t get to your views, or if you want to add anything further, be sure to use the discussion section below as your outlet.
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The Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate program is helping stimulate the economy … if you consider higher safe sales to be a sign of success! The Wall Street Journal reports that sales of safes are rising as Japanese citizens are choosing to hoard cash, rather than sock their hard-earned yen away in bank accounts or other savings products that pay next to nothing in interest.
Remember those “hidden sellers” who have been hard at work unloading equities? Well, they may have a lot more dumping to do this year, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute.
The research group just released a report estimating that SWFs will have to sell more than $404 billion worth of shares this year if oil prices remain mired in the $30 to $40 range. That would be almost twice the estimated $213 billion they yanked from global stock markets in 2015.
Those European megabanks keep bringing the bad news. HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) just reported a $1.3 billion net loss for the fourth quarter, a huge swing from the year-ago profit of $511 million. The London-based bank with a large foreign presence missed expectations due to rising losses on energy loans and weakness in Asia. It’s in the midst of eliminating 25,000 jobs, exiting several businesses, and otherwise restructuring its vast operations.
In the political arena, Hillary Clinton won the Democratic vote in Nevada while Donald Trump scored a Republican victory in South Carolina over the weekend. Jeb Bush dropped out of the race, while Marco Rubio came in second in a very tight contest.
If you lived in Japan, would you stack your cash in a safe rather than earn next to nothing at a bank? What do you think of the ongoing selling wave from sovereign wealth funds? How about the election results? Any thoughts on how they might impact the markets? Let me hear about it in the comment section below.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
P.S. Today is the FINAL DAY to reserve your seat in Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien’s inaugural LIVE Global Currency Investor webinar.
Normally, this is a private, members-only event, but because their work indicates that the next big market decline could happen at any moment, and the threat to your wealth is so great …
They have decided this one time only to offer you a VIP Guest Pass so you can attend.
You will also have the chance to ask Boris and Kathy questions that they will answer LIVE.
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Recommended Articles by Mike Larson:
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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The EU is the closest thing we will see to a real zombie. It’s functions are kept moving, pretty erratically, only by the massive bureaucracy in Brussels. It oppresses with its rules and serves no one save the governments and their minions. An orderly departure would be best, but a departure for certain.
Yes…an orderly departure is what l many of my friends and business associates shall vote for and then press for the revival and re-formation of the EU as a European Free Trade Area as an associadtion of European Nations each with independent and very strict immigration control along the lines of that exercised by Australia.
As such, there will be no need for draconian soviet style multi-nation control as presently exercised by the Brussels bureaucracy and can be done away with. Resulting in gigantic cost savings to big contributors – as are Germany and Great Britain.
European security already covered nationally and internationally by NATO shall be strengthened as a European peace keeping force.
That’s all that we want – nothing more – nothing less.
You are absolutely right. What we want is a European Economic Area with freedom of trade and movement but with sovereign rights for each nation preserved. By all means work towards harmonization of taxes, benefits, labour laws, and continent-wide healthcare, but only to the extent of national capacity.
A one-size-fits-all United States of Europe imposed by a Brussels bureaucracy was not the intention of the EEC’s founders and, if Britain cannot convince its European partners of this simple truth, then we should get out.
By the way, the scaremongers who insist that Brexit would lead to economic collapse have yet to prove their case.
CHANGE IS A MYTH
Its a ploy for P.M. Cameron to negotiate some more favorable terms from the E.U. and then stay in the Euro Zone in the end. As with Scotland, Quebec Canada, The Swiss vote to require the Swiss National Bank to own gold assets, and others, its only a protest that invariable comes up short each time of the required number of votes necessary to pass.
Pundits have a field day for a while, but in the end, very little actually changes because the establishment always sell-out “the people” in every country that votes for a proposed change. Nothing really changes in the end but the faces. Different face, different personality, but always, the very same game (policies) continues.
Will u or Larry be at the Orlando Money Show 3 2-5
40 years ago our Government lied to us about joining The European Union selling it as a Trading only Club and not what in reality it was a Franco/ German Alliance for a Superstate. Over that time we have ceded our Fishing Industry to Europe and currently we pay Nett £30 Million PER DAY—– A Price that is no longer worth ( never was ) worth paying . Our Prime Minister negotiated a big Nothing that isn’t even guaranteed not to be over- ruled.
Hopefully,on 23 rd June the British will finally see sense.
Totally agree! I lived in England for 15 years and was sick to see that all the polish came in, lived 9 to a house, worked for half the wage during 2008-2009 crisis, then left when they had enough money. I think the EU will collapse well before this anyway. With the PIIGS being bankrupt now, and Deutsche Bank holding the 60 trillion in derivative debt, it’s game over for them already. Just is in June they will not be able to run to the UK to get 30 million pounds per day. The British public is fed up with paying for those delinquent Europe states. Trade will still go on as the British economy is the highest consuming economy of Europe. I was an accountant in Amsterdam when the monopoly currency came in, and back then I knew it would last 30 years max-I’m not going to be that far off!! I’m even considering to fly back to cast my vote to ensure that Britain leaves the EU
It looks like David Cameron returned from his European trip with very few gifts in the bag. He is putting on a brave face and pushing his troops to sell the deal. Like most “deals” pacts I am sure the average Britain will have trouble understanding its substance much like me reading the fine print in my insurance policies. They will blindly place their trust in good old David and say yes as he will have the most ground troops momentum and horn blowers out there stumping the country to try sell this pig in a poke. One only needs to look at how NAFTA turned Canada and the USA into an industrial wasteland and the TPP will do the same. Wake up people our politicians are NOT WORKING FOR YOU AND ME!!! They are working for the empire builders not the hewers of wood and drawers of water.
Very Biblical!
Joshua 9:21; The hewers of wood and the drawers of water were dishonest Canaanite Slaves strategically positioned in the Tabernacle. Because of the location of their servitude (center of the religion), they able to periodically subvert the national religion, bringing disaster on the entire nation. How appropriate that you should relate these Canaanites to “you and me” (the general societies) in the west.
Unfortunately we are prophetically assured that these “Canaanites” will continue to bring disaster until the end of this age. Zechariah 14:21
If the UK does seem to be headed for a break with the ECM, I would start watching UK stocks for bargains.
Will the Brexit vote be binding, or will Mr. Cameron find some reason to stay in the E.U. if the vote is against it? Would that result in a no confidence vote in Commons, and end his government? If Britain does leave the Union, would that result in the breakup that Larry has predicted? Lots of possibilities.
David Cameron is not honest with his people who got him elected. For that reason alone he should resign but I guess that it will not happen. Fear will be the big motivator to stay in the EU. Big business, the press and TV will close ranks and fool the ordinary good people on each corner! But with the UK still in, the EU will have very serious problems in any case. Soon it will be time for the Greeks to ask for another bailout again. Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU is in for a real bumpy ride regardless in the next two years!
Yes fear will carry the day. Fear is the big weapon now in any governments arsenal. We awake with fear and go to bed with it. It sits on our shoulder during the day whispering in our ear. Happily for me I am retired now and my only fear is that the government might have mismanaged my pension money over the years much like they have mismanaged everything else. As each day goes by I come realize what a mess we are really in today. As I look back over the years I can see the progression of the illness that we suffer from today. Lets hope its not terminal.
Politics as usual in the U.K. .. They are as likely to pull out of the E.U. as they were to pull out of WWII. … They can not due to the implications period.
I am a Brit but cannot afford to live there on my pension income.
Ted Heath talked the nation into joining the common market as it was then called. Fair enough at the time, and I voted yes.
Now? I have serious doubts about the EU. Strangled by liberal beaurocracy and paying through our collective noses for nothing that really benefits us?
I am thinking OUT.
When one remembers what happened back in the 1970’s in the UK it is understandable that they would be wanting to exit the EU. That time of wrong policies and the having to live through hyper inflation followed by a long road of recovery for most of the people there has not been forgotten. They are seeing many of the failed policies that put them through that awful period in their history repeating now and do not want to go down that roa again. If they exit, it may hurt a little at first but would be better for them when the dust settles. The truth is that several major economies are currently headed for collapse including the US and the EU. But the IMF has a plan. Unfortunately, after it is all said and done and we have their One World Monetary System, it will be a very bad thing for everyone except the ring leaders that are promoting it.
Armageddon here we come. Not kidding.
Hi Mike
If the EU was the great success it was forecast to be long ago then there would be no need for this referendum. This issues are many but the loss of sovereignty and having to take orders while funding Brussels is of great concern. Having secure borders is an issue for any country wanting and believing in their rights to self determination. Free travel between borders for Europeans is being abused, as are some Governments who believe in a free ride on the coat tails of the working few in more disciplined societies. Get out while the going is good. Britain is a strong country and could still trade with Europe as does China and many other countries. The EU is a failed experiment for all the reasons obvious to others.
There is very little possibility that the UK will exit the EU, they have more to lose than to gain at present. The PM’s motives are to quell the troops in the UK while stirring the thoughts among the other EU members to shape up or we will pull out, sort of testing the waters of content vs discontent. Will I hop a plane to the UK soon? Hell no, we are so strained on our household budget that we will travel at home.
As for income levels and unemployment levels, 5% ??? Are you really believing those numbers? If so, I have a bridge to sell you, real cheap too! Over 12 % of the employable workforce cannot find a full-time 40 hour job, the numbers do NOT reflect the reality of the U.S. workforce…..government smoke and mirrors, as it always is.
very intelligent comment
The present economic strategy only leads to disaster for the 99%. The 1% will do well until the crash.
They even survive crashes and in most cases thrive on them.
United Oil of America
Between Canada and the United States we have enough oil to keep both economies perking along for centuries. The two countries are already each other’s largest trading partners, our oil pipelines are interconnected, so with our abundance of oil, why don’t we both withdraw from the crude oil markets. What if Canada was the only country USA bought their oil from?
The benefits of this type of NFTA agreement is that we could set our own internal price for oil at say $60 per barrel. Plus a big bonus for the US comes when they no longer have to defend shipping lanes or middle eastern oil fields.
Lets put an end to shipping our money to the middle east and make a huge step toward ending or at least funding terrorism!
Bob, this sounds like protectionism that you are proposing.
North America will eventually be one country.
Hey Rob
A great idea. Unfortunately oil is on sale for $30 now. In todays world greed trumps common sense every time. Its great to discuss ideas for the common good but only profit for the 1%’ers matters anymore. You would need leverage like access to Canada’s vast water supply to make this work. A few decades back they desperately wanted our dirty oil today not so much so as fracking has solved their problem thus they have lost their interest in their northern neighbor. But fracking comes with its own baggage. Fast depletion, financing (under pressure from low oil prices this bond market is breaking) As the world falls apart and fracking goes broke or dries up their eyes will again turn north yet again. Canada is a truly wealthy lucky country but needs more time to become a major player on the world stage. Even Harper doing his best to ruin the country could not accomplish this. Canada’s time will come just be patient. What is Harper doing now days as little is heard. He must ready to step up a rung to build the next brick in his pension program. His type always comes out smelling like a rose waiting to be courted by the moneyed masses. He has many markers he can call in.
I am not sure what planet you are on. Harper lost an election last Oct.Canada is being run by a former school teacher with good hair but no brains. We have yet to see how this works out.
You got sawdust for brains!.
There’s no bureaucrat like a European bureaucrat. At least some in the UK are not fooled or coerced!
Britain is an island group; which has kept it from being over-run for millennia (apart from Romans, Saxons, and Normans, but each of those strengthened the isles);attempts by France,were defeated (Napoleon),Battle of Waterloo,(and a few hundred years earlier, Agincourt/Le Dauphin, when a much smaller English army, tired, wet,hungry, overwhelmed large healthy French one), Spain (the Armada, also destroyed by small English fleet), Spain/ France, again 1805, Trafalgar, English Navy broke the combined forces of Sp./Fr., then Germany in 1940-1,( Battle of Britain, etc.), Hitler could not invade England despite intent, and horrendous bombing of London and elsewhere.
So, why would U.K. want to be tied in by Germany,France, Spain, Italy, Belgium(which was saved from being wholely over-run in WW 1;my grandmother was then a young nurse, under constant fire, up to front lines, which never gave way all 4 years)?!
There already are hordes of immigrants taken in to u.K, over the decades; just see for yourself if you visit there nowadays;– enough already, in that crowded space.
Likewise, keep the Pound.
Let the Bankers moan with crocodile tears;they have skimmed the country enough, as they have over here in U.S..
England/Wales/Scotland/N.Ireland should cut the mooring lines and sail free, as ever before!
Agreed, find a pair and make the change and tell Brussels to …………..
The biggest problem with the UK being in the EU is that anyone from other countries can enter without hindrance; in fact, the only citizens who have huge hurdles to cross bringing their (non-EU) foreign spouses and children into the UK are UK citizens! The UK is in danger of having to accept MILLIONS of EU citizens and MILLIONS of Arab and African refugees swarming daily into Europe. However good-hearted we would like to be we cannot take them all without crushing our own existence.
We can have a trading agreement with the EU if we leave as they need our purchases of their exports and at the same time we can trade all over the world.
It is a ‘no brainer’. As Yazz sang in 1988 “The Only Way is OUT” (well, almost).
Stevie I Agree,The trouble with the stay in mob is fear,I just wish they had balls,the in group would have allowed Hitler into the UK in 1939,12billion a year,its a laugh,europe is crapping itself if we come out.In the motor industry the UK is known as treasure island
Adding to the concern, is the fact that Britain itself is really 4 countries: England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland all have a separate history and were independent of one another. (true story…King Henry VIII dropped dead of bursting his stomach, from gobbling 37 pickled eels after dinner. He had killed his ex-wives for failing to give birth to a son who could succeed him as King, so the closest royal heir was the son of his elder sister, James. Only trouble was, James had already been crowned King James V of Scotland. So James traveled south to London and became James V and I of Scotland and England. His son, Charles, also inherited both thrones. In a dispute over taxes, Charles’ head got chopped off and rebel leader Oliver Cromwell governed England and Scotland for a time. When Cromwell got too old to govern effectively and then died, Charles’ grandson became a consensus candidate to take over both governments…memories of the revolution led by Cromwell were quite fresh, and neither English, nor Scots, nor Welsh, wanted another war so soon…hence the Monarchy was restored. At that point Scotland agreed to form a United Kingdom, with Charles as King of them both.)
Because the UK is a union of 4 countries, and is almost 300 years older than the EU, there’s friction caused by absorbing the UK into the EU. The other EU members are sovereign nations, not unions of several nations. This leads UK policy wonks to point out possible blunders, as the EU attempts things that, historically, failed when tried in the UK. Moreover, the Scottish Independence movement of several years ago, sought to split the UK, and make Scotland itself an EU member. This would bollocks up the UK’s military and diplomatic affairs…those are UK-wide operations…as Scotland would need it’s own Army and Navy and it’s own chain of embassies around the world. Scots voters turned down the independence idea, upon realizing just how much money it would cost them to duplicate all those services that they presently get from the UK.
So today’s movement to limit Brussels’ authority, is at least partly a response to the Scottish Independence movement that some Eurocrats entertained as if it were a real possibility.
Bottom line: The Bank of England is not going to bail out the Euro, by merging the UK further into the EU.
The British public are still a tad angry that their pint of beer now gets measured out in milliliters, just to keep Brussels Eurocrats happy that Britain is stamping out it’s unique culture, in quest to embrace Eurocracy. Brits rather like their traditions and are rather slow to embrace anyone for any reason.
I think we can anticipate more volatility in this field, because without a lot of British money to assist the EU, it’s going to be difficult for France not to join the PIIGS bloc of deadbeat debtors.
The true irony of Europe’s fiasco, is that the carbon-control laws Brussels has passed, make it well-nigh impossible to take advantage of Saudi Arabia’s fire sale on oil. Europe simply cannot burn more oil without breaking their carbon laws. Oil could drop to $3 per barrel, and Europe would be unable to import any more of it.
Eurocrats thought they would force their economy to go 100% solar, and laugh at the world while oil jumped to $200 per barrel.
Instead, Europe can’t compete with solar panels made in China. Europe can’t use the solar panels at nighttime. Winter nights in Europe are very long. Oil might get back to $50 a barrel if China goes whole-hog into consuming more. And the great Brussels energy bluff is making Europe no money whatsoever. The sole saving grace for Eurocrats, is an aging population who are getting too old to riot when their pensions are cut by 80% or more…and even that is problematic, with the influx of Syrian war refugees. When it reaches the point that Middle East refugees outnumber native-born youth, Europe will have to employ those refugees somewhere.
All in all, there promise to be multiple challenges to which to adapt. The UK have quite the history of adapting to such challenges, and Brussels has none.
Good stuff, Bob…love the history. In researching my ancestry, I found out that i am related to one of those wives that Henry VIII killed. BTW…they are slowly discovering natgas in various parts of Europe to heat those long nights. Check out oil stock: “VET”. Has a position in large natgas field off Ireland. Pays nice 6.5% yield with monthly dividend payments.
Europeans were smart enough to not adopt the Euro constitution. the EU was essentially still born. Not having control over the currency used in their individual countries is a root of the European problems. Best thing for all of us will be to blow the whistle and call it quits.
Smart Japanese have been sending money to banks in New Zealand for many years. It was possible to get 10% interest but now it is down to 4%. Still better than most places.
Britain should not wait that long to make up its mind,get away from that snare.
It will drag you in like Quicksand and there is no escape.
Euroland is doomed along with its currency,which is supported by almost all Countries being bankrupt.
Can’t feel sorry for a country that allows a loss of sovereignty by allowing open borders to all comers and joining with the French and EU bureaucracy.
I would suggest a commonwealth of English-speaking countries, UK, Canada, USA, Australia and possibly Kenya and Nigeria. We all have the same legal system and the same foundations for law and commerce. UK, cut the jesses to the sinking ship that is Western Europe. The Euro is a failure. Let’s move on and get over it. We should have learned from our mistakes by now anyway.
So tell me Steven, how well did the last commonwealth of English speaking countries last?
When I first heard of the European Union concept my immediate impression was that it appeared to me to be “wanting to have your cake and wanting to eat it too”, so from the start this did not seem to be a lasting relationship. I am surprised the EU has survived this long. The concept makes a joke of democracy by establishing an unelected beurocracy at the helm. Beurocrats are interested in job preservation by task expansion; they are not concerned about where the money will come from to pay for it all, other than the need for money being another task to address.
It makes perfect sense to me that any break up of such a “union” would start from a country that did not embrace the euro from the start and has lost a lot already with more to lose by staying in. After all, this is how most divorces start.
The EU, the UN and any other multi-national eco-political organization are shining examples of what is wrong with modernism, generally. As evidenced by the neutering of these united sovereign states with the rise of egalitarianism over the last several decades, it is clear that the best of mankind is achieved in a competitive setting, not on a “level playing field”. Better winners and losers than all losers.
Mike,
You ask how the elections might effect the markets. I am Trump supporter, but my only fear if he continues to win will be trade. That is, Americans, I think have become accustomed to buying cheap stuff manufactured in China. Trump claims that if he is President that he will “make” them stop manipulating their currency and so forth….good luck with that. The Chinese are going to bow to his every wish?!?! I would like to believe him, but I have my doubts. I appreciate his wanting to be tough with our trading partners, but I am concerned that his being tough will have consequences that he has not considered….I hope I am wrong about the results of protectionism, but we’ll see what transpires.
At some point push has to come to shove. I am not a Trump man but I do agree with him that we have been dumped on by China and all of the one-sided trade “agreements” (i.e.,… we can sell there ONLY if we manufacture there so that they can steal our technology and know-how).
This is not free trade…it is unfair trade. And our blue collar workers have suffered tremendously as a result. THEY are the backbone of the Trump support. Trump is right in another regard……China has MUCH more to lose than we do if they do not stop their BS and start playing fair.
As far as I’m concerned I get no return at all on any cash I am holding. So, it doesn’t matter at all to me where I keep it.
Yes tommr. Keeping cash somewhere is one problem. Cash keeping its value well thats another story.
John the Revelator got it right 2000 years ago . We are at the end of the world as we know it and the 7 heads and the 10 horns are playing out their last hurrahs and the total collapse is inevitable. Prophecy fulfilled. Oh yes, we counter. This is just another cycle . But john said ” he who has ears to hear let him hear what the spirit saith.”
The time is almost on us when we will not be able to buy or sell. And the “mark” of the beast will be implemented .
Take time out to read the Book of Revelations and pray for the spirit of prophecy and factor it into your equations.
I have an extensive vegetable garden to be self sufficient and to provide for family and neighbors. I have no doubt that between now and 2019 the collapse of Europe and America will be consummated. The writing is on the wall. Listen to your heart. May God bless you with wisdom.
you have a vegetable garden that will sustain you??… I laugh at that ridicoulous thought everytime I hear it!. Because the realty is that your hungry neighbors with bigger (or more) guns than you will think nothing of putting you and your family to waste for your few green “tomatoes” when they haven’t eaten in weeks… I don’t think most people have any clue as to how the world will work when society collapses… And what a powerfull gamechanger real hunger is..
We lived with and traded with European countries before we jioned the EU, and we will do so after we leave.
Brexit will leave a sour imprint in investor confidence. If the British cannot trust the EU then who can?
Mike,
You are believing PR spin from the master of PR, David Cameron.
All he has actually got is an agreement that certain subjects will be discussed next time that Treaties are discussed by the EU.
Martin Schulz, one of the unelected leaders of the EU, has already stated that the agreement can be thrown away any time after the referendum if the EU bosses wish.
Doesn’t strike me as either a good deal or a permanent deal!
Yeah, the same type of deal Chamberlain came back with in 1938, “Peace in our time” non-sense that left the UK unprepared two years later.
Best to get out now, and leave the bureaucratic drones of Brussels to go find some productive work to do for a “fair” wage like the rest of us.
The declining UK pound is good for exports and may restrict imports. May it continue.
Corporations and the government got rid of the strong labor leaders and have had things their way for along time and this is the after effect of no one protecting the little guy and the low IQ people.All corporate leaders and celebrities are over paid and the people are manipulated and slaughtered in ; financial deals.Greed is running this world , very truly yours william.
I’ve been a bit suspicious of the recent gold boom, since it simply overshot the top of the downchannel, then pulled back. Now Larry says it could pull back to about 1070, bottoming in June, Possibly so – the bottom of the channel, by then, would be a good bit lower. He says don’t look for it to be off to the races until it rises above 1368 or so. That would allow for something of a trading range, of course. My own figure is a good bit higher, unless we wait quite few more months, since it is slowly declining.
I lived in Northern England for some years including those for the startup of the EU and Euro. Britain I think was smart enough not to buy into all the social rules of the EU nor to adopt their currency. I think they see that the Merkel encouraged invasion of Europe by the Muslim “refugees” will bring down Europe and they don’t want to go down with them. It seems like they agreed not to support these refugee invaders as much as the continent has mandated so that is not a meaningful win for the UK. A win would be none being allowed in. Its the only way the UK will be able to survive and prosper somewhat. Most of those refugees will not work nor will they melt into the UK population. Those that are younger will join groups to bring their culture to large areas of the UK and eventually install sharia and subjugate the Brits. These cultures are not compatible and I think the British people or at least the ones knowledgeable about these invaders know this. Problem is the politicians don’t take the time to understand their plans for world domination. Britain might be afraid to lose its financial center status but what good is that if Europe collapses as its on a path to do? Europe has to can these ignorant leaders or go under. Is it too late?
The Brits should get out of the EU and try to persuade Ireland to come with them. The EU is Anti-Christ! and subversive to national sovereignty!
Note from London on Brexit – February 23, 2016
Stock markets have yet to price in the risk of Brexit because, as with the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence from the rest of the UK, the chance of a wrong – Brexit – result has only just begun to loom. Also equities tend to lag Forex movements. In the last three months, as the perceived probability of Britain separating from the EU has risen, the British pound has fallen nine per cent against the euro.
I suspect there is widespread disbelief that Britain would ignore the consistent advice & warnings of all her major allies and trading partners that to leave the European Union would be to inflict major self harm.
Because as Britain does nearly half its trade with the EU while only 14 per cent of the bloc’s trade is with it, Britain would have more to lose from a bust up, which, as the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned last month, could test the “kindness of strangers”.
As usual, the back story to this sorry saga tells us a lot about the way Britain’s relations with the EU have been consistently mishandled by both the British government and the governments of other (particularly the larger) EU states; once again the German government’s lack of adequate leadership has been most disappointing.
Firstly, British Prime Minister Cameron should have had the courage to fend off festering anti-EU sentiment within his own Conservative party from the outset of his leadership. He should have rammed home that members of a club do best when they argue for sensible reforms from within rather than by threatening to leave.
Britain, having acted as a reluctant, semi-detached member of the club for so long can hardly now complain about the direction of the EU, and certainly not without demonstrating commitment to it.
David Cameron’s polished speeches mask a lack of conviction and an inability to think policy through. The arguments he is now deploying in favour of Britain’s continued membership were just as valid before this hokey-cokey, in-out, swing it all about negotiation farce.
Secondly, Germany should have led the other member states in refusing to yield to the British threat to undermine the EU by quitting – their response should have been, “your exit will hurt us but it will hurt you more”.
Europe looks to Germany for leadership – Chancellor Merkel’s feeble response to the Brexit threat echoes her irresolute handling of last year’s Greek debt crisis. In both cases her dithering has weakened Europe by allowing shed loads of moral hazard to be dumped on it.
Thirdly, as the Financial Times columnist, Wolfgang Munchau explained in his piece on Monday, “Concessions to Britain will create a two-tier Europe”, the survival of the bloc depends on the full banking and fiscal integration of all its members – euro zone and none euro zone ones alike.
Meanwhile, the main argument of Britain’s eurosceptics/outers is that the organization the country joined and then embraced in a referendum in 1975 was substantially different from the more integrated body the EU has since become.
This self-delusion is inexcusable.
Britain did not join and shortly thereafter vote to remain a member of a mere customs union/free trade area. After an extensive national debate, Britons voted by an overwhelming majority to remain within an Economic Community pledged to further integration; economic and then political – because the latter always follows the former as any decently schooled child knows. (Initially each of what became the United States had their own currency – their currency & fiscal union was inevitable).
Mayor of London, Boris Johnson’s concerns about sovereignty and democratic accountability – or the diminution of these should Britain remain in the EU, are bogus. They amount to nothing more than constitutional wet dreaming that provincially minded politicians he is now in the vanguard of love to indulge in.
Democratic expression in developed countries is always refracted through the prisms of institutional structures – political parties, and executive, legislative and judicial bodies.
Voters don’t get to select government policies a la carte. They choose between two or three pre-set menus. Mainly, what we all care about is the delivery of sound policies rather than the methodology of their delivery.
That’s why electorates care about pocket-book issues way above the sovereignty of their national legislative assembles which are, anyway, often shabby affairs as the 2009 expenses abuse scandal of the British parliament highlighted.
And, in fact, there is no more of a democratic deficit in Europe than there is anywhere else because EU laws have to be approved by both the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers which is made up of ministers sent by national governments.
Finally, the disenchantment of Europeans with an overbearing EU is often cited in predicting its demise. But this disenchantment is more to do with the organization’s under-performance than over-performance. What really angers those living in the euro zone’s crisis economies was the failure of the EU to properly supervise and deter the hazardous behaviour of governments and banks in the first place.
The precedent that the British deal has set whereby the large nations can negotiate treaty opt-outs discriminates most inequitably against the rest of the EU’s members – and it is this that poses the gravest threat to the survival of the European project.
Mike,
You described the upcoming referendum as “decisive”. That is quite improbable. The EU has a long history of ignoring or overruling referendums that it was not happy with and the EU Parliament has already reserved the right to ex post facto overrule any agreement that Cameron gets AFTER the referendum. So, unless the voters decide to stay in, this isn’t over. It will only be decisive if they vote to stay. If they vote to leave there will be a flurry of farcical excuses and the EU will overrule the voters
A separate point is the malevolence with which the EU resist any sort of democratic input. This is an utterly top down situation. The real problem is that if Britain successfully leaves, there will be others including Italy, Spain, and Portugal who will try to vote with their feet. Oh, ugly. As foreigners, we cannot and should not tamper in EU politics, but one can hope – it is still a free country for the moment.