I’m always on the lookout for investment opportunities. The last few years, most of the profit potential seems to be outside the U.S.
Thankfully, with ETFs I can get involved in foreign markets that were once off-limits. A question still nags at me, though. Am I missing something right here at home? Isn’t America still the globe’s economic powerhouse?
Sadly, the answer is no. And today I’ll show you the numbers to prove it.
GDP Tells the Tale
You can measure a nation’s growth in many ways. The most common is “Gross Domestic Product.” GDP is the sum total of all goods and services bought at the retail level. As a statistic, GDP isn’t perfect but can be a handy yardstick.
Is our growth rate good or bad? |
In a healthy economy, GDP should be moving up. Last week, for instance, the U.S. Commerce Department reported our GDP rose at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2012.
Is 2.2 percent good or bad? Well, it could be worse. Yet it can also be much better … and in fact GDP is much better in other parts of the world. And not just last quarter. Long-term trends reveal the same.
Don’t take my word for it. The World Bank publishes GDP numbers for 200 nations, including a few semi-autonomous places like Puerto Rico and Hong Kong.
I downloaded the annual data for the ten-year period ending in 2010. I then calculated the compounded average annual GDP growth by nation. Finally, I sorted them from fastest-growing to slowest.
Care to guess where the U.S. ranks? Here are a few hints. The U.S. is:
- Not in the top ten …
- Not in the top fifty …
- And not even in the top hundred!
In fact, you have to go all the way down to #166 (out of 200) to find the U.S. Our ten-year GDP growth was just 1.6 percent. We couldn’t even beat the 2.5 percent annual growth the World Bank’s global benchmark posted for this period.
Wow. If the growth isn’t here, then where is it? Here are the top ten:
Where to find growth! |
Equatorial Guinea, in case you are wondering, is an oil-rich country in West Africa. In fact, several of the top ten in the above list have extensive energy deposits. Rising oil and natural gas prices obviously gave those economies a boost.
Follow the Growth with ETFs
Most of these places are not yet covered by ETFs, unfortunately. In most cases, this is because their stock markets are not sufficiently developed.
As investors we can only use the tools available to us. You can do your own homework, but I’ll get you started. Here are some ETFs covering nations with superior ten-year economic growth, according to the World Bank:
- iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI), ranked #8
- WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI), #19
- Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM), #24
- iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU), #39
- iShares MSCI Singapore (EWS), #43
- Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX), #47
One word of caution: Even the fastest-growing national economies can be volatile. Timing is everything. You need to get in — and out — when the time is right.
And that’s exactly what I give my International ETF Trader members … specific trading strategies for making money with ETFs like these. In fact, I added three new picks last month that are already showing sweet gains! If you’d like to learn how to join them, RISK FREE, turn up your speakers and click here.
Best wishes,
Ron
{ 5 comments }
I am ONLY interested in Africa. what are your best ETF’s????
ugi,
I believe there are only three U.S. listed ETFs covering Africa at this time. Market Vectors Africa (AFK) has about 25% allocated to South Africa and 18% to Egypt. The other two are the single-country ETFs of iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA) and Market Vectors Egypt (EGPT).
Getting exposure to the smaller countries is still tough. If you can live with AFK’s 43% exposure to South Africa and Egypt, then it is probably your best choice at this time.
Ron
Hi Ron,
I have read your articles and from my understanding this only applies& benefits mainly US residents living in the States. Let me explain Investors outside the US are exposed to Foreign Exchange risks and Share price risks when buying any ETF in US Dollars. They would have to convert their currency to US DOLLARS when buying the stock and convert it again when selling the stock. In the meantime if the share price drops the ETF maybe at a loss and if the US Dollars falls wouldn’t they also face a huge risks when converting back to their own currency. I like your websites articles however I believe your website does not advise people or your readers who are outside the US of the potential dangers of buying US Dollar ETF’s should the FOREX or share price drop. Hope your office remembers that you have other readers worldwide as well. Hope you can add some light to this .
Augustine,
You are correct that there are currency translation considerations whenever investing outside your own borders. It would be impossible to put various international opportunities into equal perspective for all readers in all currencies. The impact for a yen-based investor in Japan will be different than that of a pound-based investor in the U.K., a euro-based investor in Germany, and individual currency based investors in Canada, Australia, Mexico, and many other nations.
For U.S. based investors, there is typically foreign currency risk in any international transaction. When we buy iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) we are also exposed to a potential FOREX drop in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar. So, just because the ETFs I mention are U.S. listed and trraded in US dollars does not mean there are not any currency risks for US dollar based investors.
For someone living in Germany, if they buy EWA in the US, then they will have two levels of currency translation to contend with: Australian dollar to US dollar and then US dollar to euro. However, algebra helps simplify this by canceling out the two US portions, leaving the euro-based investor with just the Australian dollar to euro conversion. BTW, this should provide euro based returns identical to a German listed ETF that trades in euros investing in the same Australia MSCI Index that EWA does.
I wish there were an easy way to discuss all this in terms that puts everything into perspective of whatever currency you are using, but it just isn’t possible. I try to adjust everything back to terms of the US dollar. However, many readers will need to make one final adjustment to get things back into the persepctive of their own currency.
Ron
How can I invest.can I pls get details?