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When it comes to the debate about America’s economy and Federal Reserve policy, it’s all about jobs, jobs, jobs. And this morning’s Labor Department report had a little bit for everyone.
On the one hand, it showed the U.S. added only 173,000 jobs in August. That missed the average Bloomberg estimate of 217,000. Manufacturing and mining were two notable weak spots, with factory payrolls alone falling by 17,000 – the most since July 2013.
But the readings for June and July were revised up by a combined 44,000 jobs. Domestically focused industries like health care (+41,000), financial activities (+19,000) and food service (+26,000) all showed decent gains.
Plus, the unemployment rate sank to 5.1% from 5.2%. That was the lowest since April 2008. Average hourly earnings also rose a better-than-expected 0.3%.
What are the implications of these figures? That’s where things get interesting.
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| The jobs numbers could be the go-ahead sign for the Fed to raise rates. |
I believe these numbers look strong enough (on the surface) to prompt the Fed to hike rates in two weeks. Policymakers have been putting it off forever – unwisely in my opinion, as they should’ve raised earlier this year. They have no excuses anymore, especially because both wage growth and unemployment appear to have met their pre-conditions for a hike.
But ironically enough, the Fed may end up tightening right into the start of an economic downturn. Jobs figures are a lagging indicator, for one thing, and other, more forward-looking indicators have been weakening.
At the same time, the global economy is in lousy shape and getting worse by the day. The breakdowns in several financial markets (emerging markets, high-risk bonds, carry trades, etc.) are pointing toward a much rockier global environment. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this week that economic “risks are tilted to the downside, and a simultaneous realization of some of these risks would imply a much weaker outlook.”
Those are all reasons to be concerned about where markets are headed next. So is the fact that we’re getting more evidence all the time that central bankers are losing control of investor confidence and capital markets.
| “Those are all reasons to be concerned about where markets are headed next.” |
Just look at how European Central Bank head Mario Draghi was only able to goose asset prices artificially for a few hours yesterday … before they gave up the ghost. That’s very similar to the failed rally we got a few weeks ago from the release of dovish Fed meeting minutes, and the failed rallies we’ve had all summer in China, despite aggressive easing from the central bank there.
Bottom line: I’ve been urging you all summer to get more defensive, and to pare down your holdings of stocks, junk bonds and other higher-risk investments. I recommended a lot of that selling BEFORE stocks started to crack sharply in August, and nothing I’ve seen since then has me encouraged about an imminent turnaround. So make sure you take those defensive steps.
Or if you’re more aggressive, consider using things like inverse ETFs and put options to rack up potential profits from slumping markets.
(Editor’s note: That’s what Mike has been doing for several weeks now in his Interest Rate Speculator service. Here’s where you can find more information.)
Now it’s your turn: What do you think of the latest labor market data? Is the jobs market improving, or not, based on your personal experience? Do you think the problems in sectors like mining and manufacturing foretell greater trouble for the economy? Or can the service sector power us ahead?
Finally, what does the latest batch of data mean for Fed policy and capital markets? Here’s where you can share your thoughts online at the Money and Markets website.
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Heading into the three-day weekend, I’m glad you took some time to weigh in on Fed policy, stock markets and the latest political wrangling over the Iranian nuclear deal.
Reader tommr said the Fed is on the wrong track with policy, and has been for some time. His take: “How is an overwhelming policy of zero interest rates and QE supposed to boost prices? How can financial repression cause the majority of people to consume? They can’t. If consumers have no money because of these policies, they cannot spend!”
Reader Wayne H. also took issue with the Fed’s policy of artificially supporting asset prices. His comments: “It’s obvious, and has been for a while, that world banks have lost control. They’ve been propping up markets, making leaders look good, and giving the populace a false sense of security for seven years.
“The Fed has become a political entity, and forsaken their mission. But the gig is up, the piper will be paid, and guess who gets the bill? Inflation, unemployment, and poverty will be our stead for many years to come.”
But Reader Roy T. said you shouldn’t get too bearish when the Fed and other central banks are still in play. He added: “‘Don’t fight the Fed’ has worked in every crisis in the history of the stock market. Like it or not, they have the power to help the market along. The market will do what it always does — get into extreme and bounce back to equilibrium.
“Businesses will continue to create jobs, provide services and products, and make decent profits. People will eat, sleep, and multiply. Nothing has changed. Buy good companies now. It is the bottom or near the bottom for most of them.”
Meanwhile, Reader Jim offered this take on who’s at fault for instability and terrorism in the Middle East: “Everybody likes to accuse Iran of bad behavior, but the real exporter of Islamic extremism is now and always has been the Saudi royal family. It would be a perfect example of The Law of Unintended Consequences if that extremism returned to destroy them.”
And Reader Victor said: “The Iranian leadership is crazy, but there are still millions of sane people there who need to live their lives. It is impossible to keep Iran from developing nukes. Everyone knows that the more you try to deny someone something, the harder they try to get it — especially when national pride is involved.
“The focus of the negotiations should be to use the money they receive for common sense business purposes. Make it more attractive for them to buy Boeings than arms and to stay within their borders. This is tremendously difficult but has to be done.”
Thanks for sharing. It appears the Iranian deal is heading for final approval, regardless of our opinions on it and barring any last-minute surprises. So I’m sure American companies will try to muscle into the country and make whatever money they can.
When it comes to the Fed and its counterparts overseas, I believe we reached an inflection point a few months ago – and we are in a totally different paradigm now. More and more QE-style announcements – like yesterday’s Mario Draghi gambit – are failing to spur lasting rallies.
Stated another way, they aren’t goosing asset prices for several months, like in the old days. They’re barely goosing them for more than a few hours or even minutes. So please don’t get stuck using a strategy that worked for the last six-and-a-half years, but that likely won’t in the next couple of them!
Didn’t get a chance to weigh in yet? Then you’re in luck. You have a three-day weekend that you can use to fire up the keyboard, and post online at the Money and Markets website.
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China tried to put the currency genie back in the bottle, with People’s Bank of China deputy governor Yi Gang stating that the yuan will “be more or less stable around the equilibrium level” and that “the Chinese economy’s fundamentals are fine.”
The comments at a G20 summit in Ankara, Turkey are meant to calm the markets. But oftentimes when a central banker or politician comes out and tells you not to panic, the best choice is to head for the exits!
Europe’s migrant crisis is getting worse by the day, with thousands of Middle Eastern and African refugees trying to get to the Continent by any means possible. But more rickety, overloaded boats are sinking, killing hundreds in the process. Meanwhile, migrants taking an overland route are getting held up in Eastern European nations like Hungary, which is taking a harder line on immigration than core European nations Germany and France.
Put Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker firmly in the “higher interest rates” camp. He said in a Virginia speech today that the Fed needs to stop focusing so much on every financial market gyration, and focus on the real economy. In his view, it has improved enough that it’s time to move off of zero percent “sooner rather than later.”
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady won his court battle against the NFL yesterday, with judge Richard M. Berman vacating the QB’s four-game suspension. It’s just the latest defeat for NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, calling into question whether the football league needs to revise its player discipline procedures. It should be noted the NFL plans to appeal the ruling, but won’t try to keep Brady off the field while that process plays out.
Do you think China’s “Remain calm” comments are a reason for worry? What about Fed policy … is Lacker on target? And is there anything Europe can do to help displaced migrants from the Middle East and Africa — without overwhelming its domestic economy and social support systems? Share your thoughts over at the website if you get a minute.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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So, there were employment gains in Service industries like health and finance, but without gains in Productive industries like commodities and manufacturing that underlie the economy, service employment is kind of robbing Peter to pay Paul. It will eventually peter out for lack of support.
In 2016 we need business people running this country, with proven success. Then we’ll have jobs. No more Politian’s please.
A further consideration
I’m an employer and if I want to hire someone for say, the front desk, then they need to fit a job description. Depending on which branch in which part of the overseas country it is, I would be looking for a certain kind of person that can help the business. Some things don’t matter, however there is so much bureaucratic red tape to jump through, it affects our ability to hire and fire. That’s why we need a businessman to run this country before it is completely ruined.
You know, if the GOP spent less time pointing fingers and trying to force Obama to fail, and more time getting it’s own act together, it might have a better economic history of it’s own… They were only to happy to save their benefactors the Big Banks, but had not the will to do anything to help the average American back at the end of their Stock Market Crash and Depression in 2007-2009, when Obama was elected along with a Democratic Majority to clean up their mess (just as FDR and that Democratic Majority did in 1932)…
I remember reading an article in the New York times a number of years ago that portrayed what I am saying rather well…. Basically, the article pointed out that if an investor had invested $10,000 only during Republican Administrations since 1929 (about 35), it would have only grown to about $11,000. And based on the loss in the dollar since then would actually be a net loss…. On the other hand if an investor had invested the same amount in only Democratic Administrations (roughly 40), during the same time, that $10,000 would have grown to roughly $375,000… My old memory might be a little off on the exact numbers, but you get the message, aye?
Perhaps the GOP should not spend so much time making accusations and pointing fingers and more time getting it’s economic act together aye?
FDR was a great political cheerleader, and got most of the people behind his programs, for good or ill. Obama is kind of a mumbler, and not many even know if he has any programs to suggest.
Chuck, Obama has been trying to get a Public Works Program through Congress since 2009 and the Republicans have been able to stop it from being passed…
That so called PW program was nothing more than a giveaway of federal tax money to his buddies in the unions. ONLY 3% of his “shovel-ready” programs ever made it into roads and similar programs. Obama is totally corrupt.
Mike S, Eisenhower got the largest public works project in history enacted (Interstate Highways). His successor Republicans forget that those highways need additions, repair and replacement after awhile. All politicians like to hide that taxes will need to be raised to pay for this.
Chukj,
Quit parroting the RNC slogans and do your own research…. FDR’s Public Works Program was the greatest….. The RNC conveniently forgot to show the value of FDR’s program in inflated dollars… Ike’s highway program was smaller….
Obama’s got lots of things he wants to have in place before 2016…
I doubt any of them will be beneficial to the America he despises…!
Thanks Donald……. :(
Psst,,, Mike S.,,, unemployment was 17.3% in 1939 under Rosy!!!
ROFLMAO
Ahhh mule…… Perhaps if you were to study economics from a legitimate source rather than those RNC sites or from the screamers on Clear Channel…. Hint: You forgot to post the unemployment in 1932 when FDR started to clean up Hoover’s Crash and “do nothing three year period” from 1929 to 1932….
Obama is a golfer
Jim and Victor are correct, above. Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi culture is an extreme form of Sunni Islam, and produced al Qaida. It supports the Taliban and ISIS, which is an extreme form of Wahhabism. The Shia Islamic culture of Iran seems a lot less extreme and dogmatic, and the Iranian people seem much freer. They can even openly practice Christianity or Judaism, which is not allowed in Arabia.
Take a look at the S&P weekly chart, and you’ll see we’re repeating the 2011 correction, so far to the exact week! – so the ‘possibility’ exists that going into December – we start a recovery into ’16, and a huge correction in 2017, similar to 1987 and a 30 year cycle later! That’s quite possible, but as a trader, I know that’s probably wrong, You follow the markets and react NOW!!
Why would the Fed want to strengthen the dollar and make it all the more difficult for us to export our goods?
pete d: Because when everyone else is riding the down escalator you need to walk up it just to stay in place.
Regarding the latest labor market data, and whether or not it indicates that the jobs market is improving: a flaw in the commonly-followed metrics tracking employment levels is that it focuses only on answering the question, “How many people are working?” They do not convey how well those jobs are paying.
All other things being equal, an abundant supply of jobs is a good thing. But all other things are unfortunately not equal. With about 30% of full-time jobs in the U.S. paying $24,000 a year or less – the ceiling the Federal government defines as a poverty-level income for a family of four – the job market still sounds weak to me, despite the declining unemployment level.
A young student of electrical engineering I spoke with earlier this week opened my eyes to the fact that the average starting salary in the U.S. for an electrical engineer is $30,000. This figure is about half what it was when I graduated college, in constant dollars. That doesn’t sound like a strong job market to me.
Ya, you see Todd, if you graduated before 1981, there was something called “Unions” in America…. the Labor Movement brought greater wakes to the workers and that in kind brought higher salaries to the Professional classes…. Then calme Reagan and his “Trickle Down Economics” which never worked and now their are few Unions and the Professional wages are a lot lower….. Too bad the voters bought their propaganda, aye? Not to worry though as the Ultra Wealthy are richer and that was the goal of the GIOP anyhow….. Who do you think pays their way anyhow?
Relative to jobs for U.S. Citizens is the fact that our nation issued approximately 33 million new green cards during the past 10 years. Given the limited job growth since 2008, the rapidly increase in the number of service jobs being lost to technological devices, an open-door immigration path, and an on-going practice of moving jobs off-shore, why are we surprised by stagnate job growth reports?
I agree that immigration needs some controls, BUT, the truth is that MANY immigrants, whether legal or not, are doing jobs that Americans will NOT do!!
While there are many legitimate needs, there are MANY, MANY more Americans who are on government assistance of one kind or another who are simply sponging off of “the system!!”
Why should these Americans be interested in getting a job when it’s MUCH more lucrative to simply draw their “check?”
Perhaps if the spongers next meal depended of whether they worked that day, there would be more Americans working and ‘loving’ it.
It’s BS that Americans won’t do the work… Truth is they do not gave to do the work…
Please fix that will you…?
Yeh, and what is it they may be qualified to do…….sit around and claim some more benefits from the government to be paid for by us taxpayers…???
And NO, that’s NOT bs! Many will NOT work, not for a fair wage!! There are many who genuinely need and want a job, and would readily work if given the opportunity…I agree with that. BUT, I’ve seen first-hand, all my life, that there are MANY, MANY MORE who just ride the system for all it’s worth!
You were NEVER poor were you Donnie?
Bill, it seems now is the time to be nimble and play it both ways. Get in step with the markets, now that they’ve got the things whip-sawing, and play it going up and then play it going down! I’ve seen other bloggers post basically the same thought and I believe they’re right!!
Use the 2011 correction as your model if you like….but we COULD be seesawing for awhile….You remember a few years ago when it traded within 500 pts on either side of DOW 10,500 for what seemed like forever?
Think of the money to be made See-sawing all the way down to 9300…!
I do not believe ANY statistic used by fed’s. It is all make believe poppy seeds.
We need an immigration system that compliments US workers and NOT displace them. The so called gang of bill would triple immigration and would result in more workers being displaced. We also need a fair and level trade rules with China and Japan. The business and wealthy people control of useless politicians for their own gain and the hell with the rest of us.
I do not believe and statistics released by government agency. Blowing smoke and mire ow to make a decision.
Are you still getting government smoke Bob…?
I haven’t seen any for quite awhile now… Figured they just stopped it because no one believes the government data anymore… Well, except maybe Mike since he keeps quoting them…
Be nice! Jim
The Donald has spoken…..
I see that you quote the government statistics on job reports when making comments with out question. Are the current numbers good numbers or just a jumble of half-truths made up to make the present administration look good. I guess the changes made a few years ago, eliminating non active job hunters, etc., just don’t sit well when comparing apples to apples with past jobs figures.
I believe the FED lies to us and the gov’t lies to us. They both know there is no meaningful recovery, with the jobs being part time or temporary. If you are a temp worker for 3 months-I believe you cannot collect unemployment insurance. This skews the low claims figures to look rosier than is he reality.
With the federal deficit at 18 trillion dollars a rate hike of even 1/2% would cost a government already hemorrhaging red ink almost 100 billion dollars. I do not think we will see a rate hike for a while.
WHY BOTHER HAVING A FOOTBALL COMMISSIONER WHEN THE COURTS COULD INVALIDATE THE VERDICT. COACH BELICHICK HAS CHEATED BEFORE SO WHY NOT AGAIN. COUNTRY IS MORALLY BANKRUPT. SAD.
I guess the Supreme Court is going to need an instant replay system up and working quickly… That way they can even overrule the line judges…
Hey, maybe we can start getting other decisions out them quicker once they get up to speed…
My heart goes out to those poor people trying to escape war and terrible living conditions. I try to imagine what it must be like to be in a situation so terrible that you leave everything and risk your life and that of your family’s. I don’t know what Hungary and other countries can do as this problem gets worse. United Nation intervention is needed. The only thing these people have done is to have the misfortune of being born into such a horrible condition.
Much of this is the result of US policy failures in the Middle East. I know we can’t really be the worlds policeman, but this is what happens when we withdraw. I don’t know how to fix it. Jim
Hi Jim,
Imagine what the Middle East would be like today if the Bush’s had listened to their Generals and stayed out of Iraq? Imagine what we could have done with those Trillions wasted and lives lost?
I do not believe in the accuracy of any goverment figures, they are not true figures. They are made up to make the economy appear to look better, but thepeople know that this is not true. The homeless situation is getting worse all over the country and part time jobs and service jobs are not enough to carry our economy they just do not reflect the true unemployment. How can a government that is in as much debt as we are, possibly request a rise in the interest rate. The Federal Reserve is probably the biggest contributor to our economic situtation and I do not believe they have any ability to make it better.
A QUARTERBACK IS THE LAST ONE TO HANDEL THE FOOTBALL. HE WOULD KNOW IF IT WAS DEFLATED? DO WE WIN BY CHEATING OR BY THE RULES. LIES ALWAYS CATCH UP. SO WHY CAN HE NOT BE TRUTHFUL. MONE,MONE!
MONEY, MONEY!
A record 94,031,000 Americans were not in the American labor force in August — 261,000 more than July — and the labor force participation rate stayed stuck at 62.6 percent, a 38-year low, for a third straight month in August, the Labor Department reported on Friday, as the nation heads into the Labor Day weekend. The number of Americans not in the labor force has continued to rise under Obama due to excess regulations, taxes and unfavorable economic conditions favored by Democrats.
As the stock market now begins to collapse and conditions begin to worsen, Obama will soon gain the moniker of Barack “Hoover2” Obama.
Just learned something interesting: in the first quarter of 2015, America’s 500 largest companies paid out more in dividends and stock buybacks than they earned. Credit, David Wilson of Bloomberg. Managements love stock buybacks because they reduce the number of shares outstanding and make earnings per share look better. They can also do that with borrowed money, even it raises company debt levels. Many famous companies owe more in debt than their free cash flow. It makes management look better, though – until the debt comes due, at least. I knew there was something fishy about stock buybacks. Now I know what it is. We will all shortly be paying the piper, in the form of falling stocks and even lost jobs, as these big companies retrench or go broke.
The last time something like this happened, by the way was in the second quarter of 2007, a few months before the November peak, after which the markets declined about 50%.
Chuck,
Actually, the Markets were down by 60% when Obama began the PIP (to save the “Too Big To Fail” GOP Banker Buddies) in coordination with the Fed’s QE program on March 9, 2009….. It wasn’t the Buy backs that caused the 2007 Crash. It was the Unregulated run away Speculation that casued the Crash…. Incidentally the markets reached a Speculation Level of 40:1 in Mid November 2007 and blew up…. That was also the point at which the Markets blew up in 1929…. Until the GOP removed regulation called Glass-Steagall is returned our markets will continue to Crash over and over again….
No, Mike S, the buybacks didn’t CAUSE the last crash, but they heralded it, and were a symptom of the rot in the system that DID cause it. That rot hasn’t been eliminated, of course – merely painted over with taxpayer money. Not that we taxpayers were asked to approve. You are correct about Glass-Steagall – it’s removal helped promote the rot, and showed the slavery of politicians to their money masters. Republican, in this case, but the Dems are no better.
Go study historical economic cycles…… It is ALWAYS the Conservative Ultra Wealthy….. Since roughly the beginning of the 1900’s they have been called Republicans….
Mike, you are right based on data that you comments. Otherwise, the things are worse. I know many people laid off last year, their unemployment benefits expired in July, and they do not count anymore as unemployed people. I know some unemployment local organisations in Silicon Valley that had 200 members early in the year, 150 have been employed in 7 month but they continue to have 200 members. So the inputs and outputs are equal, then where is the improvement. Maybe this 5.1 percent is computed the same like my water allocation in San Jose, the governor said 25% reduction, the City said 30% reduction, and I ended with more than 300 % (yes 300%) decrease in my water allocation, otherwise I will pay$7.56/ccf above the 300% reduction. I discovered with the same occasion that I am not an individual, but an average. So it depends what we want: recession or not. I agree with Chuck above. The “growing” in this economy is based on expenses reduction (layoffs, part time, contract, etc) where the company does not pay healthcare and all the other benefits. So, I am skeptical on the math behind those figures, (to not be rude and say that the math is not the strongest quality of the education system ).
The “beauty” is that to prevent the big money to make even bigger money when this market falls (excuse me, corrects :) ). big stocks like AAPL or NFLX made a split so that 30% drop to not be $210 dollars but $30. And recently I heard (and I signed the petition) that the DOL, wants to introduce a law in Congress to prevent us to trade options in IRA. Basically to prevent us to protect our IRA, in which we cannot short. So after 10 years of fight with my broker to convince him and to teach him what can I do with option, the DOL, who does not help us to get jobs wants also to loose our money. So, to be or not to be, this is the question, was said maybe 500 ago, and nobody answered to it.
What specifically is the carry trade and what does it effect in the financial markets?
Here are my uneducated two bits. It’s all about two things:
1. To avoid the inevitable crunch from the limits to growth, the world got into a habit of mining debt instead of mining exploitable resources. That has made the end of growth all the more traumatic, since debt management is easier when the economy is growing.. The sooner we give up on growth the better.
2. That could not havew hit at a worse time, because we were already deep into the part of the economic cycle in which the distribution of wealth has gotten out of hand so that capitalkists can no longer invest in activities which require a healthy consumer class. Because the consumers can no longer purchase what they produce. A repeat of the late twenties, inevitably worsened by deregulation
The only way out is heavy taxation of the wealthy to provide capital for investment in sustainable activities. That will ameliorate the consequences of 1 and 2 at the same time. Not that it will happen, of course.
Some deep truth there, Nicholas. We have developed a neo-feudalistic system, where nearly all wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few, and there is little left for productive activities such as commodities and manufacturing. And little market for their products beyond the essentials of life. I don’t think taxation of the wealthy is the answer, since that would simply concentrate wealth in the hands of politicians; but something needs to be done to spread the wealth around a little more evenly, as it tended to be in the ’50s and ’60s. A truly FREE market would probably do the trick, not the present one geared to push wealth into the hands of speculators.
This is chicken egg between Market vs Central Bank.
The market will push the Fed to postpone, because this is the interest of market of having low rates….. It seems pushing market down.
As soon rates is potspone, buyers will come back for the dip…..
China becomes closer to previous bull level of 2700….
China restructuring will take years and amount of yuan devaluation and Govt Stimulus.
Expect bumpy road….. Better to buy China when it comes closr to 2800 level and keep it for 5years….
Its is very sad and tragic to see those displaced migrants of all ages leaving their countries seeking better human living conditions from the Middle East and Africa starving & dying enroute.
Why dont the Arab Kingdoms like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai and Abou Dhabi who have vast empty lands and are loaded with money take them in.
They can build towns with schools and Hospitals create jobs and give them work building those towns.
Why must the Europeans feel bad about this heartbreaking refugee problem. Let the neighbouring rich countires take them in.
Unfortunately, those Arab Kingdoms seem to find it more fun to spend their money on military hardware – whether of not they use it, except to dominate their own citizens.
cause they do not have the water !
The answer to all the above moans and groans about “Why this and why that” lies in the calendar about 14 months from now; yeah, about November 2016.
Mike,
The question of whether the Feds raise interest rates or not, is NOT the main issue. I believe they will NOT raise interest in order to continue to “spike the bunch bowl” due to a global economy that is getting worse by the DAY. The real question is, will it make any difference to the stock/bond market if they raise or lower rates? The answer, based on the Chinese intervening with cap controls etc..having NO effect on the bear market and based on the Trillions of Dollars of Debt and Derivatives in the market that could NEVER be paid back. is NO! So, the Fed and by extension, many Central Banks have put themselves in a box and that means one SURE thing going forward: we are now in what appears to be a SEVERE BEAR MARKET.
This refugee situation reminds me of Vietnam. The grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence. The risks of exiting should be weighed against the risks of staying, but under pressure emotions tend to rule the day. People show extreme fear when big changes take place in a short time. Because of the sadness of the potential results, extreme care should be taken before giving encouragement one way or the other. Unfortunately, there will always be someone striving to make money out of the situation. My advice is: Don’t abate or assist the situation without careful consideration of the risks and potential consequences.
Will,
Virtually NONE of the Vietnamese who came to America went back, just as virtually NONE of the Muslims and Hispanics who came to this country have gone back…. Despite what the negative people keep spouting, America is the most successful country in the world…. Those of us that live here are darn lucky…. Many have no idea how lucky…. If more of us visited the rest of the world,there would be pictures all over the place of American Citizens kissing the concrete after getting off the planes that returned them to this beautiful and successful country…..
If the risk of leaving could be death, and the risk of staying is almost certain death, only a few would opt to stay.
Go get on that plane and let’s see if you repeat that statement when you return, aye? The Army has a few slots open and they will send you all over for free….. You will even be better at marksmanship when you return…. What a deal…. You will get to visit most of the failed dictatorships in the world in some of the biggest rat holes in the world. then you can spend the rest of your life telling your kids and grand kids, factually, how really good they have it here….
The Land of the Free, where people must submit to groping by hired government thugs, and be considered guilty until proven innocent – and people submit to this in the name of “SECURITY”.A slave has security, but not much freedom. Of course, in a totally free society, a person has no security at all. Our balance seems to be tilting toward slavery.
I travel by air a lot and I am real glad they are there….. Hasn’t been another 9-11 since they started…. I’ve got lots of steel parts from my serve time… Never been “Groped”…. Do you travel by air? I’m at a loss as to what you are talking about…
I was scared crap-less under those neocons Cheney/bush. Not scared now….
Two excellent charts to show the relationship between Unions, Income Inequity and the Middle Class….
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/27/1301209/-The-tight-link-between-unions-the-middle-class-and-inequality-in-two-charts?detail=emailclassic
Please say “alleged” fed numbers whenever you speak of them. I believe JOHN WILLIAMS
numbers, not this criminal cartels lies. I still see many here out of work or working part(under 29 hours) time. Many others as free range slaves surviving on slave pay.
Around 75% of the population. I think your large pay check distorts your view of whats REALLY going on out here.
The UN is really concerned about the refugee migration from Syria, Iraq, Africa and the Near East. They see it as genocide. Will they charge Obama, as the leader of the west, for his failure to help them, and his bad military decisions? Many Europeans believe he is responsible. What do you think? We know what Trump and Putin think!
You ready to put on a uniform and go to Syria Joe? Do you two work for the RNC?
Hey Oscar, did you hear the Class of 2015 SAT scores was the worst in years. What does that tell you?
It tells me these kids are no dummies. No dummies Oscar? That’s right. They can recall when their Grandparents sat him and his brothers and sisters down and gave the mandatory wisdom on the American Dream(home ownership,social mobility). Now he hears his older brother and sister complain. Own a home, I can’t afford to pay off my STUDENT LOAN. The new American Dream.
you have it correct, in my opinion. the fed will, wrongly, raise rates in sept but the economy will slow down over the winter and contract in the spring. oil will fall further to around $25 a barrel and other commodities will fall. most of the world will be in contraction mode and all struggling to stimulate their economies but out of ammunition. oddly, gold won’t do much. but you have it right, in my opinion.
david
You could be right, david, even about gold. It is a commodity, after all, and not one with much practical use. It is not even a basis for money anymore, and people can’t eat it, wear it or warm themselves by it. What value does it really have other than being pretty and hard to destroy?
From the video I see of the refugees, I see A LOT of able bodied young males .I see them as cowards. Why don’t they make a stand against those sand devils.(isis) Start doing to them what they are doing to the civilians. KILL them!! Look what Egypt did to the “Brotherhood” The refugees are nothing but sheep and sheep get slaughtered. This situation would never happen in the good ole’ USA, because the able bodied American male would fight back! We would NOT wait for the rest of the world to help us.
More than a few of those able bodied American males are also like sheep, following the lead of the political bell-dam into the slaughter pens of government dependency, bleating acquiescence all the way. Of course they are repeatedly sheared along the way.
THe Fed will show its true colors and not raise rates as they believe that would cause a further drop in the stockr market. 1) The “Wall Street Crowd” will not allow that to happen until most of their money is out of the market. 2) Once that occurs they will then double down on puts and inverse ETF’s and drive the market down resulting in them rebuying it for pennies on the dollar. The fix is in!
You sent out a reminder at 3:30 pm today and indicated that the offer would expire at Midnight. However, now at 5pm when I try to respond, your site says you have pulled the offer. If this is indicative of the integrity you operate with, then I am fortunate indeed.