Awful. Hideous. Jaw-dropping.
Market Roundup
Take your pick of adjectives – they all apply to the jobs report we got out of the Labor Department today. To quickly summarize:
The U.S. economy added only 142,000 jobs in September. That was a huge miss to the average forecast of 205,000. Worse, the figures for August and July were revised downward by a combined 59,000 jobs. That confirms the labor market has been decelerating all summer.
Yes, the unemployment rate held at 5.1%. But average hourly earnings actually dipped ever so slightly, against expectations for a gain of 0.2%. The average workweek also fell 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours.
By sector, manufacturing lost 9,000 jobs … mining lost 10,000 … and wholesale trade lost 4,000. There was a bit of strength in non-economic sectors like health care and education, as well as retail. But the labor force participation rate sank by another two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.4%. That was the lowest since October 1977.
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| The September jobs report was far worse than expected. |
The “diffusion index” compares the number of industries adding jobs to those eliminating them. The lower the number, the fewer industries that are boosting employment. It sank to 52.9 in September from 55.5 a month ago and 61.4 a year ago. That’s the worst reading since February 2010!
So in a nutshell: The job market has been worsening for months. The weakness is the most widespread in almost six years. Americans who are employed aren’t making more money, and they’re getting fewer hours. And more and more are dropping of the labor force entirely.
Look, I don’t care how the Wall Street pundits try to spin this one or the late rally in the market today. But the figures clearly confirm that the warnings I issued recently on inventories, trade, manufacturing and lousy foreign growth were dead-on target.
They also confirm what I wrote just two days ago, saying in no uncertain terms that Wednesday’s ADP report would be “the last strong jobs number for a LONG time!” I added that optimism about the domestic economy, in the face of major challenges in several key sectors, was “patently ridiculous.”
I wish this weren’t the case. I wish we had a gangbuster economy. I wish that all of the easy money and other policies central bankers enacted in recent years actually worked for the real economy, rather than just inflated a bunch of unsustainable asset bubbles.
| “The job market has been worsening for months.” |
But that isn’t reality. Data like today’s jobs report prove it. So I believe you have two very important choices as an investor. You can …
Stop listening to the same old tired Wall Street rhetoric and take matters into your own hand. Raise cash, buy hedges and lower your stock exposure when you get countertrend rallies like today, as I’ve been advocating for the past several months – since BEFORE stocks started to tank.
Even better, you can add investments that RISE in value when stocks FALL. That’s precisely what I’ve been doing in my Interest Rate Speculator service. Those investments are surging in value, giving subscribers the opportunity to bank several triple-digit profits in the past several weeks.
Or …
Keep believing the bulls who refuse to acknowledge that central bank garbage no longer works … who refuse to acknowledge that serious global problems can’t stay bottled up overseas forever … and who refuse to heed the messages of the bond markets, the currency markets and foreign stock markets.
I know which choice makes the most sense to me. I’ve been doing all I can to guide you to the proper path. And you can be darn sure I’ll continue to do so as this grim reality continues to exert its influence on markets in the months ahead.
So now that we know what “officially” happened in the labor market last month, what are your thoughts? Is this going to hammer stocks even harder, or have they already “priced in” weakness? Is this as bad as things will get for jobs, retail sales and production … or is there even more weakness coming down the pike?
Any other thoughts you have? Please don’t hold them in; instead, head over to the Money and Markets website and share them with us all.
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Ahead of these figures, several of you already weighed in with your thoughts on the economy and the markets.
Reader Phil S. said stocks can withstand weaker data, and that certain parts of the economy are still hanging in there. His comments:
“As long as the ‘Greenspan Put’ is alive and well, the bubbles will expand. The talking heads yesterday were so excited about the record-high vehicle sales … never once mentioning the subprime auto loan debacle. The ISM data is not encouraging. However, where I live in Illinois, it’s gangbuster residential, commercial, and municipality growth.”
But Reader Donald L. warned that conditions are clearly taking a turn for the worse. His take: “Nobody believes government statistics for good reason, now confirmed. Industry sees no visibility in the future and no confidence. Result: Apprehension about moving in any direction, so no movement.”
Reader Chuck B. also agreed that the job outlook isn’t very encouraging: “With all the layoffs we keep reading about from the major companies, where is the BLS finding all these jobs they claim people are filling?
“Is it possible that smaller, newer companies are taking up the slack? We can hope so, but other figures say small businesses are failing at a higher rate than they have in years. Something doesn’t jell.”
Lastly, Reader Russ C. said: “Manufacturing (wealth creation) is the wage earner for the nation. The service sector is the cost of maintaining the nation. When the service sector exceeds manufacturing plus income from overseas investment, we are on our way to bankruptcy.”
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I was tepidly optimistic about the U.S. economy for the last few years. That view was the correct one, at least from an investment standpoint. I say that because you were able to rack up steady market gains by zeroing in on financially healthy, highly rated stocks in select sectors like I did.
But I strongly believe that conditions have been deteriorating for several months now, and are likely to get even worse. That’s why I’ve been recommending dumping a large amount of stock exposure, hedging against downside risk, and shooting for large profits in select trading services I manage. I’ll let you know if and when that outlook changes … but it’s unlikely to be anytime soon.
By the way, you haven’t missed out on your chance to comment on these very important issues yet. Just head over to the website and let me hear from you over the weekend.
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There was another horrific school shooting late yesterday, this one involving a community college in Roseburg, Oregon. Ten students were shot dead, while seven others were wounded, when a 26-year-old went on a rampage on campus. He was shot dead by police, who are still trying to figure out a motive for the latest senseless mass murder.
So much money is fleeing high-risk emerging markets that we could see a full-year outflow for the first time in 27 years. The Institute of International Finance estimates foreign investors will pull $540 billion out of EM economies, while EM residents will send several hundred billion additional dollars abroad.
Supermarket chain Albertsons will be coming public again, as part of an IPO expected to raise roughly $1.5 billion. Private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management wants to sell 65.3 million shares for $23 to $26 each, with the exact timing still to be determined. Recent IPOs have fared poorly throughout 2015 so this one is worth watching.
We got some good news overnight on Hurricane Joaquin, with the 120 mph storm likely to miss the eastern U.S. based on the latest computer models and National Hurricane Center forecasts. The season is past its peak and will steadily wind down from here into its Nov. 30 conclusion.
Is there anything we can do in this country to stop senseless shootings like what happened in Oregon? What will happen as funds flee emerging markets in droves? Any other stories catch your attention in the last day? Then tell me about it over at the website.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
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Really is simple… We can not have prosperity in America and keep buying from China…. All those trade agreements need to be torn up… We sell virtually nothing to them… Buy American made and demand American Made or prepare to lose our country and the future of the Free World for that matter…..
Agreed. All the ‘free trade’ is a one way deal….they get to sell here……we don’t get to sell there. Our presidents have been VERY weak in dealing with China….basically letting them crap all over us.
The WTO has been a huge trap for advanced nations who play fair and foolishly let the scoff-law lands rig the system to their advantage. It is especially true regarding labour laws and safe practices or product liabilities, as well as responsibilities for sub-standard export products. Advanced, civilized nations must compete with one arm tied behind their backs and one leg cut off at the knee, running against such conditions. Asymetric competitive conditions spell ruin for every country, even the perpetrators like Bangladesh, who kill thousands by their lawless competitive policies and worker treatment.
DON’T PANIC WITH THE CROWD
All the recent dire economic news and reports may be true, but its probably not new. I notice it receives more attention from the press. All of a sudden, as public mood shifts into negative, things are viewed somewhat differently. True, the stock market has lost its momentum and declined off its highs. Janet Yellen’s inability to instill confidence by having indecisive policy and actions is contributing to the overall uncertainty and funk the stock market finds itself in.
Increasingly, Janet Yellen is looking grossly incompetent. I think she knows it too. The job is over her head, but the same could be said of President Obama. She might even resign, like Speaker Boehner or face the music later. Still, with the market terribly oversold at current levels, I suggest a rebound is not so far away. We may yet hit some new lows, but the bottom may be in with investor sentiment at a recent low. There is no rule that the stock market follows the real economy. Clearly, it has not since 2009. It has quite a bit of room to grow from here.
At this point, a bear market or recession is not necessarily certainty, despite the negative public sentiment and data. Remember, people, markets, and the public are notoriously fickle. Its dangerous to try to outguess a manipulated market with high volatility. So, just stay put to be safe.
Yellen isn’t looking so bad now. She has kept down the budget deficit by keeping borrowing costs contained (ZIRP), and has propped up U.S. Exports by containing the value of the U.S. Dollar. Also, our savers are doing better than those in Japan and Germany (higher bond rates). Sure savings returns aren’t great; if you want more, buy a telco.
Wealth flows from the bottom up, not the top down, the West has destroyed the poor and middle class, thus a house without a foundation = ROT
As for buying American, or the West, most people’s standard of living would drop like a stone.
People in the bottom 50 or 60% have to spend. They have little choice. People in the next 30 to 40$ can choose to save a little, but are encouraged to spend to “keep up with the Joneses”. Those in the top 10% either save or are the Joneses.
The tragic shooting in Oregon was waiting to happen, if not there, in some other “gun free zone” group. The protector was not even armed and trained. Political correctness is an evil stain on our civilization and indeed one that may be deadly/
I agree. I’d feel much better if everyone brought guns to school or work (like in Texas). I’d definitely enjoy the shootouts that would break out. Best place to enjoy same would be at any given middle school. Maybe even a new sport for TV; it sure sounds better than paintball.
Come on over to Texas Phil, we’ll see how you measure up.(<:
The least violent, lowest crime nation on Earth is Switzerland. Every adult male is required to have extensive firearm training and has to maintain a working full automatic assault rifle in his house. The girls are just as competent for the most part. A Swiss woman could shoot the pants off most American guys and they have regular competitions to prove it. So what’s the difference? The Swiss don’t coddle Looney Toons like we do. Jim
I am Canadian. Quite frankly I have never understood what America sees in the right to carry a gun? I adamantly believed and still do …its a complete recipe for disaster. It’s impossible to stop the insane violence from occurring if everyone can carry a gun? How many times do such senseless tragedies have to occur before someone realizes the only way to stop it is to change your laws. My gosh!! Drinking and driving is illegal because it kills innocent people. Guns do too.
Guns have been outlawed in NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, and several other Democratic Cities. Yet…..these bastions of Obama have greater violence that you never hear of Martin. Just last weekend……15 black gangsters killed each other in Chicago. Obama said NOTHING. Why?
In Mexico, you cannot carry a gun and it is almost impossible to own one. YET……all the cartels and gangsters carry them openly…….and they use them. Is that what you would wish for us? To be totally defenseless to gangsters and the criminally insane? When you outlaw guns….only the insane and the outlaws will still have the guns. Mexico and Brazil are 2 countries that prove that fact.
Thank heavens someone makes sense – thanks to our Canadian neighbor!
Drinking and driving is illegal, but it doesn’t stop some people from drinking and then getting behind the wheel. Owning a gun could be made illegal, but it wouldn’t stop some people from obtaining a gun, or from possibly using it on someone or some ones. The people it would stop, would be the ones most likely to be attacked by the criminal. They, like the students in Oregon, would be defenseless. We occasionally read of some disturbed murderer gunning down people in Canada, England and other nations with strong anti-gun laws. LAWS NEVER STOP THE LAWLESS. Our families, schools and churches do NOT do a good job, anymore, of teaching respect for others. That is the true source of the problem. People no longer really know better, in most cases.
Hi Mike
No one wants to be holding the watermelon just before it hits the pavement.
It is unbelievable that new jobs fell for the last couple of months, labor participation is the lowest sine 1977, 10 year bonds fell, and the stock markets all rose. Talk about looking at the world through rose tinted glasses… Whatever those buyers are on, I want some!
It’s the plunge protection team at the fed. If you watch the daily swings, as soon as a huge trend line is broken the fed comes in to prop things up. It won’t work forever, but it’s so obvious that it’s the man behind the curtain pulling the strings
Senseless Shootings
Monkey see monkey do!
We need quality Media programing!!!!! NOT WHAT IS SCHEDULED FOR THIS SEASON!
I avoid TV, except for News and Sports. What they call entertainment these days is so often shoot-em-up, burn-em-up, blow-em-up. It is so predict\able it has become boring, anyway.
No more GUN FREE ZONES. Every want to be killer kills in a
GUN FREE ZONE. They know people in that zone do not have guns.
Criminals will always have guns. There would have been less people
dead if any of the students had guns and shot back to kill the shooter.
Agreed. More school gun battles. That’s what I want to see.
The students certainly don’t need to be armed, but the Security Guard does. Simple, common sense security measures would prevent a lot of this stuff. If we protect air passengers we can certainly protect our kids. My child us not safe in a gun free zone and never will be. Jim
A couple of more relevant points. Leftists have this strange idea that passing a “Law” against something is going to stop the problem . The Volstead Act was their first attempt to stop people from harming themselves. That worked out well. Alcohol disappeared. We have passed numerous draconian laws outlawing drugs. That worked out well. No more drugs! That any of you think passing a law against guns will accomplish anything in this country is nothing short of dumb. If we can’t kick down doors to find and deport illegal aliens just how in the heck do you expect to kick down doors and collect 400 million guns. Physically and legally impossible. I have asked my law enforcement friends and neighbors how they would feel about being given that order. Not one has said they would have anything to do with it. Phil, I nominate you to be the one that goes door to door to collect these guns, knowing I will never having to listen to your B.S. again. Jim
Jim, I thought you were better than this. I know you’re smart enough to understand the difference between drugs (including alcohol), which people use for enjoyment, and guns, which are used to kill things, including people. I know you won’t use that specious argument about drinking and driving, because everyone knows drunk drivers are not trying to kill anyone (including themselves); that just happens as a byproduct of their incapacitation. And no, no one is going to collect those 400 million guns. What’s being discussed are background checks for all gun sales and transfers. It’s just like you can’t sell alcohol to underage people anywhere–not solely in one subset of liquor sales locations. I know you get this Jim because otherwise you’d be an idiot.
Poor ol Phil, just barely smart enough to keep on insulting people. LOL
No one seems to remember that Oregon just added more gun laws in the last year.
Agree 100% about the significance of the awful jobs report and what it says about the US economy. But the bizarre reversal rally today smells very suspicious, doesn’t it? I didn’t hear a single convincing explanation for it. I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but doesn’t it look something like the Fed was funding some big institutions to buy large volumes of stocks to prop up the market after the weak jobs report? The question is, how long can they and will they keep this up, and up to what level? Because your inverse funds, put options, etc. (which I like too) will take a hit if somebody manipulates the market higher even as the economy sputters.
I think it’s Obama using the Iranian oil money he has secretly transferred to private off-shore accounts. I think Hillary helped him, and that is why she deleted so many e-mails.
I totally agree Jeff. I posted this as a reply on an earlier comment. The plunge protection team at the fed is hard at work. As soon as you see a huge downdraft or a major trendline broken a massive rally ensues. This is the fed coming in to work it’s magic. This unfortunately is no longer a free market.
OK, after rethinking the meaning of the terrible money velocity print, I have to do a 180 on my interpretation of it! Since the calculation of this metric is M2/GDP=money velocity, I have to say that both of the components are variable and also highly manipulated! The number is highly distorted by the huge increase in M2, as well as, the weak and “cooked” GDP. So, I now think we should just ignore this as having any useful meaning!!
You ask:
Is these anything we can do to stop senseless shooting as in Oregon?
Yes. Teach our children: “Thou shalt not kill” and “self-control” — wise biblical concepts
that have been removed from our educational systems — at school and at home.
History shows that governments that remove guns then begin to murder their own people,
so let’s not go down that path.
Also, get rid of “gun free’ zones. It’s obvious that these nutcases pick places where thre will be no resistance.
More school shootouts; more school shootouts; yay guns!
These are not ” school shoot outs” they are measured attacks by evil individuals on people the perpetrator knows are defenseless. Your faith and trust in the “authorities” far exceeds mine. Jim
to Erick
hi there: All these shootings are contrived. They find nut cases online. They get them all riled up and they supply the guns and they tell them what to do what to say and probably tell them we will help you escape which is a lie and they get killed as well. In other words these killings are a ruse just so gun control can be implemented. There is never any info about these shootings. Everything is kept secret the guy who did
the job is dead, there never is any followup and you hear nothing later as they contest.
You should have figured out all this out yourself. Your not gullible and neither is the rest of America. We are so fed up with the scare tactics and shenanigans like these shootings, we have had enough…and innocent children are the victims which is absolutely unforgivable with their whole life ahead of them. Absolutely this not what America is about and something drastic should be done about it.
So, do something, Gloria. Maybe shoot somebody.
to Erick
hi there: All these shootings are contrived. They find nut cases online. They get them all riled up and they supply the guns and they tell them what to do what to say and probably tell them we will help you escape which is a lie and they get killed as well. In other words these killings are a ruse just so gun control can be implemented. There is never any info about these shootings. Everything is kept secret the guy who did
the job is dead, there never is any followup and you here nothing later as they contest.
You should have figured out all this out yourself. Your not gullible and neither is the rest of America. We are so fed up with the scare tactics and shenanigans like these shootings, we have had enough…and innocent children are the victims which is absolutely unforgivable with their whole life ahead of them. Absolutely this not what America is about and something drastic should be done about it.
Are these government agents who are hiring these guys to do school shootings? Is Obama hiring them himself? Maybe it’s the Pope? Or Olivia Pope.
I do not think ISIS would bother going to the USA,it seems your doing a pretty good job yourselfs.When youve killed each other and down to the last man do you think it safe to come and visit America
Mike,
This afternoon’s report ties in with the report you issued this morning regarding the decline in value of the junk bond market. The Fed freed up capital that had been tied up in real estate mortgages so that the money could be invested in the economy to grow it again and put this nation on the road to recovery. The corporate CEOS were entrusted with the task and the money to accomplish it with. They did not act as was expected of them. Rather, they put all that money (much of it taxpayer sourced) in their pockets in the form of stock buybacks and M&A instead of putting people to work. Now we are out of money and time and the most recent economic reports show that. The CEOs who were trusted have been shown to have been derelict in their public trust. They should be “brought to book” but that is unlikely given how well they have protectively fenced themselves. It truly is a sad day for America as the citizens we trusted put self before country and let those who trusted them suffer the consequences of their dereliction.
Corporate executives have the companies borrow money for buybacks, r so the companies can buy out other companies. That looks good and makes the stock rise, which is good for any shares they own, and also justifies the nice bonuses they vote for themselves in the last quarter. Always be suspicious of buybacks or buyouts.. Find out if they involve borrowed money. It should be a crime, but they nearly always get away with it, even if it eventually drives the company into bankruptcy. If we do get a crash of some sort, many of those buyout, buyback companies are going to end up on the trash heap.
Exhibit A for bogus buyouts: HP CEO Carly Fiorina buys Compaq for something like 40 billion dollars, a move which propels HP toward the garbage heap (and the stench persists today). Yet now conservative Republicans are touting her as a savvy business woman, suited to be our next POTUS.
Maybe China and Russia can get together with the Saudi oil sheiks and buy the U.S. after it declares bankruptcy. It should go pretty cheaply.
So with all the bad news how can the stock market go up so much today? Corruption and fraud are the only things that come to mind. Perhaps the Plunge Protection Team as well. Something really smells rotten and vile on Wall Street and in Washington DC. Something wicked comes this way in the USA. What amazes me to no end is how they have managed to keep kicking the can down the road for this long. Someday it will come to an ugly end.
I’m Canadian and agree with Martin. 360 million private guns circulate in the USA; enough for every single human to have one. USA gun culture is like no other country in the world; full of the same old nonsense about the need to have every school teacher armed and trained, as if the accident or murder rate of gunshot wounds/deaths caused by stolen, misplaced and wrongly sold firearms will somehow then go down. We need look no further than to equally advanced, developed lands like Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, The Netherlands, or New Zealand and Norway and ask how come they only rarely have such an outrage? In the case of Norway, what are their “best practices” to react to and overcome outrages since they have had a mass killing? How do they all keep experiencing low deaths from guns statistics? How are these countries laws, regulations and practices different from the USA; both before and after such tragedies occur? Until Americans get serious about this issue, it shall endlessly get worse.
Ron……all of these countries are small with relatively homogenous populations. Go look at Brazil and Mexico. These are 2 countries that have virtually outlawed gun ownership. Now….only the outlaws carry guns in those countries. The law abiding citizens have had THEIR rights take by the gubmint because of criminals. The answer is to have ARMED GUARDS at these schools and teachers, by request and training…….authorized to pack.
In those nations you mention, Ronald, I think families, schools and religious institutions tend to do a better job of teaching self respect and respect of others. That is the main reason they have lower levels of violence in general. Media doesn’t help much either – especially in the Prime viewing hours.
Addendum: Mass killings may seldom happen in those countries you mention, Roland. but they do happen. If someone really wants to do such harm, they can always find the weapons.
I just saw a chart that showed the U.S. stood number 6 in what they called rampage shootings per capita between 2009, and 2013. Not something to be proud of, but it puts thing a bit more in perspective. Norway led with about 20 times as many deaths per person in the population. We were right behind Switzerland.
When I left school in the 1970’s I do not recall ever hearing about an “inflation benchmark” which the Fed wished to obtain. Although Fed actions were important to the overall business climate, there was no impression that the Fed was either responsible for raising stock prices, or goosing bond values, much less supporting Chinese market action. I must regard this all as a form of controlled insanity beginning to breach containment. In this climate, and the sequential brutalization of savers, how can this not undermine long term real investment? Of course, 2% inflation reduces the real value of US debt obligations by $360 billion per year…hmmm.
Good point, John. And it passes that cost onto you and me.
The economy is on a merry-go-round, up down up down in circles. The world economy is slowing down which means less demand for US goods, which are not the usual consumer goods but heavy equipment for construction, railroad locomotives, hi-tech goodies which the US has a knack for. Countries are even having a hard time buying food which is very large export, especially grains but air freight and refrigeration make vegetables available. And while other countries play games with their currency the FED and Clueless Leader sit on their hands and not raising the FED interest rate off rock bottom didn’t help. The lowering employment and wages here mean countries that hijacked so much of our consumer goods manufacture now have a smaller customer base here to sell to. Maybe if we as a group in this country concentrated more on buy “Made in USA” our country would be in better shape and other countries would have been forced to create their own consumer middle class and the world economy would be a whole lot stronger. Ain’t Monday morning quarterbacking fun?
Agree that the jobs number badly missed expectations but how do you explain biggest intraday reversal in 4 years? I suspect someone flipped a switch on buy programs after lunch but the daily volume was above average which might mean the switch flipper must have had some conviction about intermediate- to long-term trend. Maybe I’m too much in the weeds on this but my bearish attitude is not as confident as yours.
In regards to the shootings going around. I am not sure that they are spontaneous or done on purpose to create the pressure to get rid of all weapons. Nevertheless they are most certainly greatly highlighted for that very purpose.
Having lost my native country of Cuba I will never forget the call given by the ruthless
tyrant Fidel Castro when he repeatedly called out “ARMAS PARA QUE (WEAPONS FOR WHAT) and once he took all of the weapons he proceeded to confiscate all businesses, other valuable properties and EXECUTED OVER 17 THOUSAND PEOPLE. Most without even bothering to fake a fair trial. Many other countless murders were committed during imprisonment. BY ALL MEANS NEVER GIVE UP YOUR WEAPONS.
Perhaps Mr. Obama is taking lessons from the Castro brothers, Leopoldo.
Actually, the past seven years lead me to believe that he is taking his lessons from FDR and the New Deal…. You have noticed the recovery in the Stock Market, I assume and the falling unemployment numbers?
Second amendment says “the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed”.
There is a reason Gun Free Zones consistently, like a magnet, draw this danger.
Lets try a moratorium on all of the multitude of infringements illegally in place on the Second Amendment, and see what happens.
Nothing else seems to be working.
Can you say Posse Commitatis and remember Waco?
Hey Mike!
The unemployment rate is not 5.1% – the gov’t is lying. It’s more like 25% or even higher. Simply take the 94.6 million out of work, divide by the U.S. population (nearly 322 million) and ya get 29.5%. Take out the stay-at-home adults (children caregivers) and the students and it’s a real number. Who are you kidding with that phony gov’t number?
The government is made up of politicians, Steve, and you know how well politicians are acquainted with the truth, don’t you.
As someone who is in the maritime sector of the energy business, I follow uour insite closly things stsrted a down turn a year ago, which I believe most of us thought would be a short term correction in the price of oil
But that was not to be and after January of this year it has been like a snowball rolling down hill now contracts are canceled, vessels being cold stacked world wide and by a rough low estimate 200,000 lays offs in all sectors of the energy business
You sure don’t hear wall syreet or Washington DC talking about those family eage jobs going away whete it my be just beginning and going to be worse than the 80’s shut down.
Thank you
There is a huge elephant in the room called mass shootings, and its name is pharmaceutical drugs for depression. Almost every heinous crime is perpetrated by folks taking this poison, from drowning your 5 kids in a bathtub to killing dozens of strangers. These drugs cause violence in many who take them and also cause many suicides in young people entangled in the legal drug debacle. Follow the money. Greed is rampant in the pharmaceutical industry. Billions in profits is not enough for them, they’re aiming for trillions and don’t care how many vulnerable people die as a result of their greed. Mass vaccinations cause brain inflammation that does not go away. (Dr. Russell Blaylock) Some vaccinations are effective, Not the flu vaccine, but too much of anything results in very negative outcomes such as destruction of your natural immunity.
In reality, far more people are murdered in gun free zones and in cities like Detroit and Chicago with so-called “safe” gun restrictions than anywhere else. Crime rates soared in Australia when honest citizens were robbed of their guns. You have a God-given, Not govt. given, instinct for self preservation, and responsible gun ownership is your best defense against crime. Stop the teaching of claptrap pap,”social studies,” and teach history instead. We are citizens, not unarmed subjects who are routinely slaughtered in the tens if not hundreds of millions throughout history by their own governments.
Good points, Alaskat, especially about the psychoactive drugs. After all, the FDA is basically paid for by the patent medicine companies.
Millions of “disorderly” school children ( mostly boys) have been prescribed these drugs without really knowing the long term effects. It is probably ok for most, but there is evidence that many of these shooters had been taking them or had had recently quit taking them. I think realistically dealing in a more effective way with mental illness is the real solution since it’s mentally ill people committing the crimes, not law abiding people interested in self defense. The police are reactive, the can’t be everywhere at once. How do these incidents end? They go find someone trained to use a gun. If the Minute Men had not had guns in their homes we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion. The Castro victim above is someone we should all listen too when a Leftist President says he wants our guns. Jim
Let’s get one thing clear. If the U.S. were to somehow get its own Castro who controlled the military, all the home rifles and pistols would be powerless to stop him from taking whatever. Remember what happened in Waco, and that was just the FBI, not the military. Our constitution gave citizens the right to bear arms so they could counterbalance government militias, but any such balance has long ago disappeared in favor of the military.
I am a life member of the NRA. I am a veteran, a gun owner and a constitutionalists. I have a concealed carry permit and have been investigated and fingerprinted. In fact, for many years I had a security clearance. I believe that we need “people control” and not gun control. You are required to meet certain requirements in order to drive a car, fly an airplane, practice medicine and a myriad of other things. Why not meet meaningful but reasonable requirements to own a weapon and make no mistake about it, a gun is a weapon. There are far too many people who possess guns that should not be allowed to do so.
True enough, Tom. After all, cars, airplanes and medicines are all potentially weapons — and all have been used as weapons on occasion.
You ask what can we do about the senseless mass shootings? Israel is the expert. Their people are armed. There is no other answer. By the way America does not have the highest rate of such shootings; other nations that have more gun restrictions have higher rates.
Everyone in ISIS is armed, too. To use ISIS or Israel as a proxy for US policy is equally ridiculous.
The Chinese markets fell 11 points. Their markets are not linked to those on Wall Street.
European markets fell 5 points. The U. S. is mucking up the Middle East which is sure to provide repercussions sooner rather than later. America currently has a community leader without absolutely no sense how to lead, what was once the greatest nation on earth, away from the financial calamity about to besiege our loved country.
God help us all
The laws that allow the mentally ill to be kept off the list used in background checks to buy guns need to be changed or eliminated. Until that happens, the mentally ill will continue to
legally buy guns and use them in mass shootings.
Mike, again you are looking at the wrong number. While jobs are certainly important, the most significant number is profits — the “mother’s milk of stocks.” Keep an eye this upcoming week on earnings, revenues and profits of some huge companies — it will tell the tale of the rest of year, in my opinion. If profits are strong, then I predict a nice bounce for the rest of the year. If not, stocks will continue a downward spiral.
P.S. Remember those who said it was all about the Fed? Na, it’s about profit!
Just as thieves will break into the least secure house on the block, so robbers and murderers will attack the least defended.
Provide incentives for a small portion of school employees to be designated, trained and, armed security guards. Some churches already do so and make no attempt to hide it.
Most colleges and universities have an armed police force; Virginia Tech certainly did, but that didn’t stop the mass murders there. Also, all those armed soldiers couldn’t stop the army shooter in Texas.
@ Phil
If you check the facts the soldiers @ Fort Hood were not armed.
As pointed out above and needs to be said again and again until the American people understand, it is Big Pharma and school prescribed drugs that drive the out break of shooting, but a lap dog press will not report that. Go back and see if this was a problem before 1960, almost nil, but introduce psycho babble to the public schools in the 1950’s, and prescription drugs from the 1960’s onward, oh my! The root cause of this problem is so obvious only a lying politician would try to ignore it and a polyicized press help sweep it under the rug. It is not and never has been about gun control, it is all about control, total control of our lives. Get the prescription drugs out of the schools and the numbers will plummet. That simple.
Kent, of course I wouldn’t question your medical credentials which allow you to draw conclusions about prescription drugs, including those for psychological problems, nor your ability to diagnose the motives of mass killers you’ve never met. But I would note that we once had hospitals for the mentally ill, but these were closed as cost-saving measures to appease conservatives who suggested the mentally ill would be better served by giving them pills.
Of course Phil and I don’t question your stoopidity either. (<:
In the interest of softening natural swings in economic activity, central banks attempt to soften the blow to contraction periods that are part of the normal cycle of economic expansion and contraction. Periods of economic expansion, especially if emphasized by Fed stimulus, carry along less than ideal investment in the overall economy. A contraction period is an opportunity to weed out less than optimal or very poor investments in capital. This is one of the benefits of capitalism. It fosters a redirection of capital investments into areas that may support demographic, economic or social trends.
We are currently experiencing a peak in the spending habits of the global post WWII population boom. This boom along with technological advances lead to the economic expansion associated with the last two generations. We are older and in the process of downsizing. Add to this, the last decade of leveraged investment into paper assets and derivatives, supported by central banks and you have the making of Humpty Dumpty scaling the wall. Why should we not hunker down and save the last bit of assets we have accumulated during our lifetime of working towards retirement.
the next QE will most probably have better results.Put the funds in Infrastructure projects,
roads,bridges etc. If this is done worldwide it will create seriously improved employment numbers and consumer expenditure .
so now what? we investors scence how to train ,hands on g&gals to a production scemein a short time, so right to work get trained with now almost retires to lead the pac, go pac go
Yes, the school shooting was senseless and tragic. But that’s not an excuse to disarm responsible gun owners. People shoot people. If they didn’t have a gun they would find something else. I’m praying for those families and our country.
If the government is the only entity with guns, guess who will use them, and who will be the targets. If I am not free to say what I wish, then I am a slave to some authority. In the same way, if I am not free to own a gun, or anything else I can earn the wherewithal to buy, then I am a slave and not a free man. A lot of people seem to prefer the politically padded manacles of a government Master, at least so long as their basic needs are taken care of.
OK, Michele, what are those weapons that would allow such killings? Maybe bombs or suicide bombs? Those are hard to stop, but have a much more limited effective range than do guns.
I think the Virginia Tech shooter killed 35 before he was stopped, and that was the largest toll I’ve heard of by gunfire. Car and truck bombs routinely kill over a hundred in Kabul, Bagdad, Damascus, Oklahoma City and elsewhere. I’m certainly not saying it is okay to kill anyone by any means, just trying to add a little perspective. Take away the guns, and terrorists will find other methods, perhaps even more deadly.
Republicans traditionally favors tight money policies, which cause recessions to depressions. ?Republicans controls Congress now, and they will not invest in infrastructure rebuilding, they will not lower student loan interest rates, they will not limit credit card interest rates, they will not promote anything for the common people except for the few super rich. They do try to promote the interests of oil barons, but frac oil production has become a technology thing, where technological improvements, and the developments of mass production robotic automation techniques may in the future raise the extraction rate from the current five percent to much higher percentages at much lower cost. There are trillions of barrels of shale oil under the ground, and it is just a matter of improving technology to get these oil out. The banks are charging usury rates against the consumers, while they receive free printed money. Loan shark rates by the banks slow downs the economy. The baby boomers are retiring in the US and Europe, and this slowing down the economy. Trump is. a builder by heritage, so that he may get the US back into a building mode again if he wins.
Trump is a Republican….. Do you think “it will be different this time”..? I’m betting we will elect a President that will look out for the average citizen as opposed to the Rich and Famous and he or she will come from the Democratic Party and the economy will continue to improve, especially when the Congress changes back to a Democratic Majority.. Always has worked that way….
One thing good about the Republican party: their three leading candidates are all non professional politicians, and have been subjected to government rules and regulations in their professional lives. Every Democrat, on the other hand is tainted with the professional politician label, and has been one of the rule makers at some level. That just kills any chance of their getting my vote. The Republicans are not lawyers, either, and that is another plus. C’mon, Jackass Party! Get some REAL people running on your side.
And yet those dastardly Democrats just keep being more and more successful… Perhaps looking out for the common citizen works out better than looking out for the Conservative Ultra Wealthy (CUWs), aye?
We got along fine without a central bank to blame for fiscal incompetence. If we stop the pretense that Fed monetary policy is helping and relegate monetary policy and refinancing operations to the US Treasury Department, there’d be no further excuses for this horrid zero interest rate policy and the flummery of QE. We need the Fed to be a clearing house for checks, to hold tax and loan accounts and the like. Let’s have the Federal Government be responsible for economic policy.
When Americans get rid of the Central Banksters, that will be a start to allowing the free market system to work as it is supposed to. You cannot dictate rates and not blow bubbles and cause income inequality. Stupid is as Stupid does, and these PhD economists running this dog and pony show prove time and again that Keynesian Economics doesn’t work, they just continue doing the same things over and over and expect things to be different next time — this is the definition of STUPID!
Michael, every sharp, aware, awake person knows that the gov’t and even much of the private sector financial and economic data is massaged and jaded. You and your readers must follow CREDIBLE economic/financial data sites such as shadowstats.com. Nothing should be surprising about the TREND of the job stats..and, in reality, when you take into account the economic hedonics such as the CES Birth/Death model, the data is even much worse than indicated. What is even more ominous was the 450+ swing in stocks on Friday. All good technical analysts know that when you have massive volatility, of which we have had in the stock market for months…it clearly indicates a trend change from the prevailing trend and that is down…There are a tremendous number of canaries in the coal mine that are warning of a major major correction worldwide, that, is in fact, already in progress.
Mike and Staff
Why would you be surprised with a lower employment number? The REPUBLICAN “debates” combined with the Fed Policy Nonsense and the ongoing debacle in the Middle East have distracted all investors AND Employers and Executives so that Hiring is Not a Priority!
Your organizations ongoing warnings (aka spins) have not helped. Thankfully, we are in the May to October season where Smart Investors have built up cash, and are waiting for a bottom to this correction Of course, if there is enough negativity, forecasts are changed and the entire exercise becomes a self fulfilling prophesy. Who Benefits?
Those who bought gold have not really benefited.
Those who shorted the markets have not done consistently well.
Those who are long the markets will have to wait to see if a year end rally helps them recover allowing them the confidence to move ahead.
If not, we need to find alternative sources for income. What ideas do you have for us,
Mike? Some constructive suggestions that do not include insurance policies that takes years to materialize would be helpful. Where do you keep your cash?
A Conservative is someone who thinks, “if it aint broke, don’t fix it.” A Liberal thinks, it works pretty good, but maybe we can make it work better.” Sometimes, when it breaks, a Conservative starts thinking more like a Liberal, and wants to make things better. When a Liberal does seem to make something work better, he or she sometimes starts thinking more conservatively, and stops wanting to change things. Not many people are totally one thing or the other. Those who are, can totally screw things up for most of us if they get into positions of power.
I should have added that all real progress comes from liberal thinking.
Many of our problems also come from liberal thinking, too. Conservatives don’t make so many problems, but they often make them worse.
And yet most all of the Increases in the stock market, Increases in the Living Standards of the average American, Increases in Manufacturing and Economic Output, and Growth of the Middle Class in the past 100 years has happened under the domination of the Progressives Liberals known as Democrats…
On the other hand, both Stock Market Crashes and Depressions started after periods of Conservative (Republican) Domination (1929 and 2007)
With the above facts stated, how in the world do you think the country is so bad off under the Liberals and better off under the Conservatives?
Is it possible that you might be completely wrong?
Keep track of the semi-final revisions in GDP for 2012, 2013, and 2014 (soon, 2015). They are coming in with significant downward revisions for all those years, and the revised jobs figures for those years will also have to be deflated. The post-2012 pickup in growth was real, but it was more modest than the hype at the time.
Equally important is to check out the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow program, which is attempting to use quasi-real-time data to get more accurate and timely measures of GDP and jobs. It’s been tracking at a lower real GDP growth rate since last year, well under 2%. This beats the “official” system we have now, of getting often inflated initial estimates, then laboriously revised over several years under the final numbers settle down.
The clear bias in the initial estimates has been consistently upward, which may reflect political manipulation. More likely, it reflects an atmosphere of resonant hype pinging from Washington to Wall Street and back. The jobs numbers also reflect a seriously flawed “birth-death” model for estimating small-business hiring and firing. We do know that the number of businesses in the US has been declining since 2009, the first time, I believe, since the 1940s. Since small businesses are the main employer collectively, this has to impact jobs. The “birth-death” model probably is not picking this up properly.
We can’t use the tried-and-true yield curve inversion signal for a recession, as the Fed has the overnight rate pegged at zero. But rates in the 1-3 year range have been creeping up for well over a year, while longer-term rates have been range-bound and are heaing down again.
First, at least acknowledge that in this situation this madman was specifically targeting Christians. Obama’s blind spot on this is massive.
Then end this “Weapon Free Zone” nonsense. This policy just grants easy access to “unarmed target rich environments” to these demon possessed lunatics.
Last provide weapons and situation training for those faculty members who volunteer to carry concealed in the class room.
You just don’t see this type of massacre in gun stores.
Politically correctness is killing our country.
A great many analysts seem to have suddenly turned negative on the markets. Is it possible they are wrong? Yes most data seem to support this bias, but it has happened in the past that markets have defied the numbers and gone up. Or down when the numbers seemed positive. We will soon know, one way or the other.
Particularly alarming are shrinking wages. This report comes on the heels of higher minimum wages for millions of minimum wage workers. Some 21 states have adopted higher minimum wage policies. There are an estimated 3 million minimum wage workers in this country. What gets lost in the date is this. When you raise minimum wage levels, all wages drift higher. In some cases higher minimum wages boosted wages to what was once low level management wages. Thus higher minimum wages triggered higher wages at least part way up the ladder. In spite of this, current wage data came in lower than expected. That is a sure sign of a weakening economy.
Simple: if people do not have jobs, that leaves them something in their pocket after paying the bills, the stock market will not do well. Thus, the US keeps on doing trade agreements that send the work, the jobs, out of the country, that forcing down wages within the US too.
While the dollar amount on the pay check may remain the same or even go up a little, the purchasing power of the dollar keeps gong down, pushing people eventually into poverty.
For many years I’ve been advocating stationing armed guards at schools and having students walk through metal detectors when coming and going
. The guards can make sure that the non-students have a damned good reason to be there (no more massacres by strangers). Yes, it’ll cost lots of money but what are the lives of our precious young people worth?
BB