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Six weeks ago, on March 12 and again on March 16 in a related column I write, I told my readers in no uncertain terms that “major market moves are about to unfold” and that “there’s oodles of money to be made over the next few months.”
For the Dow, I forecast that “a powerful, multi-month rally is about to begin that could eventually see the Dow rise to over 10,000, a gain of almost 50 percent from current levels.”
Similar gains, I said, were in store for the S&P 500 … the Nasdaq … Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index … the Shanghai Composite … Japan’s Nikkei … and for Europe’s and Britain’s markets.
I went a step further and told my readers that I wanted them to “have the early-bird’s advantage to cash in on the coming profits.”
And I showed them the results of some of my work based on data from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, a think-tank established in 1940 by President Hoover and Wesley Clair Mitchell, Hoover’s chief economic advisor and the founder of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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My cycles research, a long-time favorite area of my studies, helped me identify the March bottom. You can see it in the chart to the right, which I published on March 16.
Also on March 16, I told my readers that the best way to play my forecasts was to consider buying positions in the Dow Jones Diamonds ETF (DIA) … the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI) … and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), an ETF designed to play the rally I saw coming in oil and oil and gas shares.
Now, let’s take a look at how my forecasts and recommendations panned out …
Here’s the same cycle chart that I showed on March 16, with the price action updated through Friday, April 17.
Pretty amazing, eh? The Dow has now rallied a whopping 28 percent from its March low.
That’s the biggest, most powerful rally in the Dow in 76 years — since its Great Depression low in 1933!
Notice how the cycles point to a continued rally into late April and May. Of course, it won’t be a straight up affair. There will be pullbacks, like the one this week. But I do expect the Dow to get as high as 10,000 by mid- to late-May.
And what about foreign stock markets? Well,
- China’s up almost 18 percent since mid-March and up 52.4 percent since its low last November.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index — up 33.2 percent.
- Japan’s Nikkei — up 24.6 percent.
- And the major European markets — up an average of 22.8 percent.
Does all this mean the global financial crisis is over?
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| The global financial crisis is far from over. What we’re seeing now is a major bear market rally. |
No, not by a long shot. Thus far, we are merely witnessing a major bear market rally. The rally could turn out to be something much bigger, even a new bull market. But so far, the evidence is way too inconclusive to say with any certainty.
Meanwhile, the positions I suggested in that March column are likewise soaring …
The Dow Jones Diamonds ETF (DIA) is up as much as 25.5 percent from its low, while …
The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI) is up a whopping 38.8 percent!
What about oil? Oil’s up as much as 10.9 percent since mid-March, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) is following right along … up as much as 10.9 percent.
Not bad for just over a month!
What’s more, in one of my premium trading publications, my cycles studies pinpointed when to jump into trades. Subscribers who acted on those recommendations bagged gains of 61.9 percent … 92.3 percent … and 268.8 percent — in six weeks or less!
So Why am I Telling You All This?
What’s My Point?
Simple: I want to show you how important it is to understand the inner workings or rhythms of the markets.
Despite all the bad news pouring out of the economy, Washington, and the media in March — by using cycles research I was able to identify major lows in virtually all stock markets as well as in oil. Thus giving my readers and subscribers six major winners in just six weeks!
Cycles come in all forms and time frames. They affect our everyday internal clocks and psyches, crowd psychology, and even society at large.
Cycles can range in length from days and weeks in duration to decades and even centuries.
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Like the infamous Kondratieff and Juglar cycles that have been proven repeatedly to have major implications for society — often pinpointing the swings between periods of capitalism and communism … between democracy and autocracy … and even the rise and fall of civilizations.
I first started studying economic and market cycles more than 30 years ago and since then they have long been a major focus of my attention.
And market timing cycles can be, as I just showed you, a key tool in helping you profit, especially in times like we have today when history is repeating itself (though importantly, not necessarily duplicating itself.)
Which brings me to my last, but certainly not least, point …
To devote more of my time to the markets …
to research … to cycles analysis … and to bring
you even more profit opportunities …
We are “officially” launching a new, daily e-mail newsletter called “Uncommon Wisdom,” which will allow me to share my unique research methods and systems in greater depth with you — all the while bringing you more opportunities to profit from!
I sincerely hope you will join me in becoming a part of this new (and free!) daily e-zine, Uncommon Wisdom.
Uncommon Wisdom will be published every morning before the market opens in partnership with my colleagues Tony Sagami and Sean Brodrick.
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| In our new e-zine, Uncommon Wisdom, we’ll take you everywhere that Tony, Sean, and I cover and travel to. |
It will include even more on-the-ground analysis and unique opportunities from the areas of the world that Tony, Sean, and I cover and travel to, including: Asia, Latin America, and Canada.
This is in addition to, of course, all of my in-depth cycles research, analysis and recommendations to help you time the markets.
In short, in this new, complimentary daily e-zine, I will leave no stone unturned in helping you protect and grow your money.
So to that end, effective May 1, I will no longer be writing my Thursday column in Money and Markets.
Instead, you can catch me each and every Monday morning in my column in Uncommon Wisdom.
You’ll also hear from me “in-person” each Thursday — via an exclusive video link that will contain valuable insights, updates and current thoughts to help you understand the global economy and to bring you tomorrow’s profits, today.
You’ll receive Tony’s column on Wednesdays — and his video update on Saturdays.
Sean will come to you on Fridays — and his video update on Tuesdays.
All this, sent directly to your e-mail inbox each day before the market opens!
Remember, this new e-zine is complimentary. All you have to do to make sure you don’t miss a single one of my columns is click here to begin receiving Uncommon Wisdom.
When you do, you’ll be getting a daily e-zine that brings you my cycles analysis and even more unbiased, objective, on-the-ground analysis and recommendations so you can build real wealth, no matter what markets are doing, or where the profits are.
Again, I will leave no stone unturned when it comes to protecting and growing your wealth. And the best part? It won’t cost you a dime!
Best wishes for your health and wealth,
Larry
About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://legacy.weissinc.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Tony Sagami, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
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