“First There, Now Here.” That’s my mantra for the economy and the markets.
Market Roundup
By that I mean, the economic and market turmoil started predominantly overseas. I’ve chronicled the meltdowns in several emerging markets like Russia, South America and Asia. I’ve also written about the more recent widespread deterioration in conditions in China — the world’s second-largest economy.
But unlike most of the conventional Wall Street crowd, I’ve also said the problems won’t stay bottled up overseas. They’ll wash up on our shores. Hence the “First There, Now Here” mantra.
We got the first major taste of that in the September jobs report, which was pretty darn lousy. Then today, we got more confirmation of problems on the retail spending and inflation fronts.
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| Deflation is now a rising concern regarding the U.S. economy. |
Overall retail sales rose just 0.1%, half the gain expected by economists. August’s 0.2% gain was revised down to nothing.
Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.3% — the biggest drop since January. And the so-called “control group” figure that is used by the government to estimate Gross Domestic Product growth fell 0.1%. Seven out of 13 product categories showed declines.
What about the Producer Price Index? The wholesale inflation gauge dropped 0.5% in September after flat-lining in August. That was worse than the 0.2% decline economists were expecting.
It wasn’t just energy or food dragging down the index, either. So-called “core” prices fell 0.3%, compared with forecasts for a 0.1% gain. One separate index that economists prefer showed the worst deflation (-0.3%) since the government began calculating it in 2013.
See what I’m getting at? This is a domestic economy that’s clearly starting to decelerate, dragged down by slowing world growth, tighter credit markets, the problems in energy, mining, and manufacturing and more. Production cutbacks and layoffs tied to the over-accumulation of inventories will come next.
| “Markets lack both healthy earnings growth and a healthy underlying economy.” |
Stocks aren’t GDP futures. They rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. But when markets lack both healthy earnings growth and a healthy underlying economy, they have a tougher time racking up powerful, sustainable gains. So keep that in mind, especially with the Dow Industrials 1,100 points off their lows in late September.
What do you think of the latest sales and inflation figures? Do they point toward a serious problem for the U.S. economy? Or do you find reasons for encouragement in them? Should we even be worried about the macroeconomic backdrop, or is it still all about easy money? Join the discussion at the Money and Markets website when you have a chance.
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What’s going on in China? How will our markets react? Should we be worried, sanguine or greedy? Those are some of the questions you answered over at the website in the last day.
Reader Chuck B. said: “As for China’s economy, they have a weird combination of Communist-type central planning, and private enterprise, and it is hard to see how that will work out in the long run.
“Of course, we are not far different, having put much infrastructure under government control. China has largely copied us there. The only thing is their government is building their infrastructure rapidly. Ours is letting it deteriorate.”
Reader Michael C. added: “My hunch is that the China situation will eventually register with those denying China’s economic downturn, and more importantly, the importance of the China downturn on the world economies. The reaction will be overdone, which seems to be the case lately with so many things.
“Not that the U.S. is as safe as it should be, but we will be perceived as a safe harbor compared to so many other economies. As a result (and it’s already underway), smart money, and eventually even dumb money, will flood into the various U.S. investment vehicles. With any luck, this will get going full force next spring.”
Not everyone is sold on the idea of capital flows propping up stocks regardless of the underlying fundamentals, though. Reader Norman said: “We are now six-and-a-half years into this ‘bull market.’ Like a friend told me, ‘You can coast for seven years, and then the work begins.’ Most signs point to a downtrend — you decide.”
And finally, Reader Anthony G. said: “The debt levels in the global economy are not sustainable. The cheap money is a curse not a blessing. When interest rates rise, the sins will be exposed.”
Thanks for weighing in. Hopefully, I’ve made it clear what I expect: The firmly established downtrend in world markets and economies is starting to wash up on our shores. That means we should expect more deteriorating economic data here at home, and even more downward pressure on stocks as a result.
That doesn’t guarantee a bear market, of course. But it certainly raises the likelihood of one. So invest with that in mind. If you haven’t already pinged me with your thoughts, here’s the link again.
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Goldman Sachs (GS) is getting swept up in a corruption scandal tied to a fund called 1Malaysia Development Bhd, according to the Wall Street Journal. The fund may have misappropriated money and/or been used as a type of slush fund for Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, and Goldman advised it on several transactions. Authorities here in the U.S. and abroad are not yet accusing the bank of any wrongdoing, however.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton came out firing against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the first debate held in Las Vegas yesterday. Post-debate analysis generally suggests a strong showing for the presumptive frontrunner.
Several stabbings and shootings in Israel have ignited a security crisis in that country. Army and police units are establishing more checkpoints and a heavier presence in the streets after dozens of Israelis and Palestinians have died in attacks and counterattacks there.
If you love spending 19 hours on an airplane, then you’re in luck. Singapore Airlines is going to bring back the world’s longest flight — Newark, New Jersey, to Singapore — sometime in 2018 once Airbus supplies it with a new, more fuel-efficient jet. The service was suspended in late 2013, but the new Airbus A350-900ULR jet will allow Singapore Airlines to economically run the route again.
Meanwhile, the biggest retailer in the U.S. — Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) — just warned at an investor day that sales won’t rise at all next year. It also said earnings remain under substantial pressure, because operating expenses are growing faster than revenue. That sent the stock down around 10%, its worst one-day decline in 17 years. If that doesn’t demonstrate how Main Street America is struggling, or how retail sales growth remains punk in this economy, I don’t know what does.
Would you like to spend almost an entire day in flight? What do you think about the latest debate? And will we ever have lasting peace in the Middle East? The website is a great outlet for you to share your thoughts, so be sure to use it.
Until next time,
Mike Larson
Mike Larson graduated from Boston University with a B.S. degree in Journalism and a B.A. degree in English in 1998, and went to work for Bankrate.com. There, he learned the mortgage and interest rates markets inside and out. Mike then joined Weiss Research in 2001. He is the editor of Safe Money Report. He is often quoted by the Washington Post, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, Orlando Sentinel, Palm Beach Post and Sun-Sentinel, and he has appeared on CNN, Bloomberg Television and CNBC.
{ 79 comments }
Regarding the markets, all this rhetoric reminds me of the referee in a professional wrestling match…while he’s distracted, one of the opponents takes something out of his trunks, cold-cocks the other one and then hides it away again…and the poor referee doesn’t have a clue!
In wrestling, it’s all for a show and the response of the crowd. In real life, however, it’s us who just got clobbered, and it’s our money (or what USED to be our money!) that’s down for the count!!!
Can you IMAGINE Hillary Clinton OR Bernie Sanders, either one, in the white house, running the show for at least the next four years??? And with the likes of Janet Yellen at the helm in the FOMC at the same time??!! HA!! We’ll be in a fine shape then, won’t we?
Guess I need to remind you that the greatest stock market and economic increases have happened under Democratic Administrations and the Crashes under Republican Administrations… You might want to turn off FOX and do some independent study….
Eagle, mind you, I’m a democrat at heart. I just don’t see that they’re showing us much to vote for now.
The republicans, on the other hand, will tell you that it was their regimes that set it all up for the democrats to do their victory dances.
Really, matters not! When it comes down to it, it seems it’s really all about interest rates and FOMC policy.
Meanwhile, Bill, I feel sure, is happy Hillary’s running…gets her off his back for awhile!
hey MIKEY S. or HEIDI or EAGLE495 whatever you call yourself from one quote to the next your twisted logic your broken record keeps spouting off everyday….. republicans baddddddddddd democrats gooddddddddddd why don’t you back that up with some statistics instead of your broken record liberal ranting. And please don’t use some data like your always lying about from 100 yrs ago because it has not a ounce of bearing on the present and the future
History has EVERYTHING to do with the future…… “Those that fail to study history are doomed to repeat it”…… Ya, the GOP is going to be “different” this time….. When you are paid of by the wealthy, who do you think they are going to lookout for, aye, chump?
Politicians are politicians, whether they come from the Left or the Right. They all are looking for ways to get rich off of you and me. The more they get, the more they want.
If you have ever been rich, you would understand.. Than do no think average.
Once I was poor, now I am rich, thanks to Democratic policies. That said, I’ve never forgotten where I came from.
After watching the debate last night I breathed a sigh of relief when I realized that all the Democrats have to offer is five seventy year old sixties has-beens. When there are no new Liberals, the end is near for Liberalism. Jim
Whether they are Liberal or Conservative, they are politicians, and offer nothing but the same old “Me Tarzan, you Jane.” You know what Tarzan did to Jane, don’t you?
MEMORIES
I once flew to South Australia from Oregon, a 16 hour flight or so. It was in a Jumbo Jet (707) but they crammed all the passengers into the lower level so as to use a smaller stewardess staff and save costs. You could have slept just fine by sneaking up the stairs to empty seats and quiet above. ( Half Loads ).
It was permitted to tour the pilot cockpit area during flight over the South Pacific at Dawn ( Sunrise). Awesome View !. Unfortunately, now airlines are more like grossly overpriced Greyhound Buses, as are many of the passengers, as well. Food about the same as a Greasy Spoon on the Road at the Bus Stop too. No TSA agents at the Bus Stop though.
What constitutes deflation or inflation? Groceries have never been costlier. Car repairs, cost of college, buying a used car, are all very expensive. With poor returns for years on safe investments and the cost of daily needs going higher, it seems like inflation to the average person….
Under the nation’s scheme of ricochet politics, however, I think Ronald McDonald could run on the republican ticket and get the presidency! …After all, we have had a democrat in the office for 8 years now………
A Robert, if you had any money invested, you would know that those 8 year have taken the stock market to new highs after the Cheney/bush Crash when it lost 60%…. What, Limphog didn’t mention that?… Geez… :(
At one time, I was for Hillary all the way….but after all this hype about her emails (EMAILS! of all things!!) I don’t know that I can stomach the media coverage of President Hillary!!
At least, with Bill, there was sort of a base, guttural curiosity that kept us listening to find our what “he” may have done with “her,” and what “she” did for “him!”
Bill was a good president (didn’t have any choice since he was under the microscope all the time) AND kept us entertained, AND the stock market skyrocketed too!!
Can’t ask for better than that!!!
I don’t agree, but the republicans will tell you that Clinton’s success was the aftermath of Reagan’s policies!
Obama’s policies have been an unmitigated disaster. Dodd-Frank has crushed the community banks and credit for small business formation. All their policies favor big business. For the first time in our history more small businesses are failing than being created. Obamacare created the 29 hour workweek and has caused premiums to rise, and, by the way, I did lose my doctor and my deductible quadrupled. Average income has dropped by $5,000. Black youth suffer 50 percent unemployment, Hispanics 33 per cent. 92 million out of the work force, 47 million on food stamps, 50 million in poverty, retired folks on fixed income suffering, and there is that little matter of the $10 trillion in new debt that will never be repaid. I honestly don’t know what planet you Democrats are living on. This blog site is filled with testimony of the ills we are currently suffering and they have had seven years to fix it and failed completely. I really could go on but you should get the picture by now. I’m a Democrat too, running headlong into the arms of the Libertarians. Jim
I totally agree, Jim. BTW…..it is now 94 million out of work in Obamaville/Hooverville.
Jim, yeh I lost my family doctor too AND my premiums went up like crazy as well. AND, after basically having to submit a balance sheet and then my 1040 form from last year, they still claim they need more information from me……all for my attempted participation in “the affordable healthcare act!!” It’s ridiculous!!!
It may never be able to be repealed, but obummercare sure needs to get fixed!
Jim has a significant point, in my opinion. Both Democrats and Republicans favor strong central government at the expense of individuals, small businesses, and the simple right of self-determination.
Look at the results going back to World War II — more central government, more surveillance, more unnecessary military spending, artificially increased real estate, tuition, and medical care prices, and, after 1973, ever-increasing wealth concentration and fewer decent jobs.
Look at the Civil Rights Act of 1964; the biggest beneficiaries have been women, not non-Caucasians — and many women simply won the right to be the second income earner for households who could not afford to stay afloat without two incomes.
Economic statistics have been “gundecked” for decades by both Democrats and Republicans. John Williams’ shadowstats.com is the one reliable tracker of inflation, unemployment, and total employment. The picture he shows is 1930’s era underemployment with 1970’s inflation.
I like libertarian values with the willingness to make working communities at the smallest effective level. So I favor small businesses, locally grown food, cooperative businesses including utilities, and local, supplemental currencies. Strange as it seems, I like Social Security, too. It works. The administrative costs are barely 1%. The push to privatize it, as I see it, is a false pretext to allow Wall Street ganefs to churn trillions at the expense of the vast majority of people. The problem lies in the show the Democrats and Republicans put on — Republicans head even farther to the right and clamor for Social Security cuts and privatization, Democrats raise money for voters they work to scare stiff and keep Social Security (even with a 0% COLA), while the Pentagon and Department of Fatherland Security get ever fatter (notice, however, that the numbers of ships, squadrons, soldiers, sailors, and air crews decrease, notwithstanding the budget bloat). I see nothing but expensive illusion.
Who does the calculating of the rate of inflation? It seems to me that whoever they are, must have a different place to shop than I do. The cost of food I buy, typically cheerios, macaroni, chicken, bread, milk, etc, is not declining, but the container is. Therefore I pay more for the same amount of food that I bought last year, and even more than the year before. A pound of hamburger was about $3.50, 2 years ago. Last year, it was over $4.00 last year, and this year it was $4.79, per pound. The container for Maxwell house coffee has just been reduced to 32 ounces, but the price is still the same. If you look at bottles of pills, it is the same problem. The quantity is reduced—some by half– but the price is still the same. Does anyone pay attention? We, the people get no help from those who hold an office.
Can someone (MIKE) explain his comment regarding tightening credit markets contribution to slower economic growth? How are credit markets tightening?
Tightening credit means that interest rates for business loans are rising, and loans are harder to get, requiring more security. If money is harder to borrow, and often takes longer, businesses are hampered in expanding their operations or maybe even keeping the business they have. They may need to reduce their operations or hire fewer employees. The only thing good about it from their viewpoints is they may pay lower taxes; therefore politicians may be encouraged to raise tax rates, since they have the power to do so and don’t wish to reduce their own influence with the voters.
About the debate– It seems that the democrat candidates only have freebies to offer! Sounds good, but who is going to pay, or where is the money going to come from? They could confiscate all the money the so-called 1% have or make, and would not have enough money to pay for the “benefits”.
Dems love to play Santa. Obama has, in 7 years, increased our National Debt almost $9 Trillion….from $10 Trillion. And that $10 Trillion dates from Geo Wash. He is a disaster for this country. By that standard ALONE. I challenge ANYONE to argue that issue to the contrary.
Easy money, is like the easy rider. It will end badly. The economy is now riding off into the sunset..
What is wrong with the Federal Reserve.. They have no you know what. Including Janet Yellen. No,pun intended.
Ya, you see, it was that “Easy Money” that saved the stock market from a complete meltdown… From November 2007 (Cheney/bush)until March 9, 2009 (Obama), the stock market dropped 60% and most of our banks were bankrupt and our economy had frozen up…… Ya see, saving a Stock Market Crash is expensive and the choices radical…. You might want to thank your lucky living standards that that “Easy Money” was brought to bear, else wise, you would probably be living in a cave right now… :(
Easy money did save us, at least temporarily. Or did they just delay the inevitable outcome? The real question is how we get out of this mess. It’s hard to see a bubble when you are in it. Jim
I don’t know about everyone else, but things have sure been looking up for me lately.
Then again, It’s true I’ve developed a penchant for walking on my hands.
Well, one can always count on the presidential debates for entertainment. in that vein, I came across a quote not too long ago which comes to mind every time I attempt to watch one of those debates: “Politicians and diapers should be changed frequently and all for the same reason.” ~José Maria de Eça de Queiroz,
Politicians and diapers do tend to get kind of full of “it”, don’t they? Maybe the source of that quote has something to do with certain politicians dislike of people with Spanish names.
Mike, good info. You da man. U know you’re stuff. Julio Valdez
I JUST READ A ARTICLE ON US TREASURY MONEY MARKET FUNDS- THEY PAY NEXT TO NOTHING
I PUT MY MONEY IN BANKS THAT ARE FDIC INSURED
SYNCHRONY BANK MONEY FUND PAY 1%- KEEP IT UNDER 250,000- 500,000 IF IT S IN BOTH YOU AND SPOUSE NAME (JOINT)
A 5 YEAR CD PAYS 2.20% SAME AS 250,000 AND 500,000- 6 MO PENALTY FOR EARLY OUT
IN CASE OF BANK FAILURE I PUT SOME OF MY MONEY AT ALLY BANK- SALLY MAE- EVERBANK
ALSO A LOT OF THE MONEY IS IN A IRA- NO TAX- JUST LIKE A GOVERMENT FUND
WHY WOULD I WANT THE GOV. FUND WHEN I CAN DO THIS- I JUST KEEP UNDER THE FDIC LIMIT
I SUBSCRIBE TO WEIS ON AND OFF
Don’t count on the FDIC when the @#%!% really hits the fan in the next huge crisis. The FDIC has enough money to cover ONE big bank and THAT IS IT!! Do your homework Jerry.
I agree fred151 xcept one big bank like wells fargo or Citibank or bank of America would be a disaster it will topple the fdic
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
I think of the latest sales, inflation figures and a variety of PREDICTIONS for 2016-2020; They do point toward a serious problem for the U.S. economy. But, the spiritual and enlightened side of me do find reasons for encouragement in them, also.
We should be worried about the macroeconomic backdrop, and embrace the easy money for its faults as well. The folklore legend, tells a story of the TURTLE winning the race, and the HARE lost. Which one are we, the winners or losers?
Lucinda, thanks for your comments…I agree.
For my response to your question of winners versus losers, please refer to my opening comment today about wrestling…seems to apply here, big-time!
BNS Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 5:50 CDT
Since I own and manage a company that is highly connected to the housing industry all I can say is much of the US population today has no inclination to purchase home products at a pace that can sustain a business for a long period of time. No wonder the emerging markets of China, Vietnam, and other places are having a difficult time since the average American is maxed out on what they can spend. Nor can the Boomers who have the bulk of the money afford to pull funds to keep the spending up since the Fed has kept interest rates at 0 since the crash in 2007/2008 and our government wants tax everything even more. If the Fed institutes negative interest rates as this crisis intensifies who could even think of a rebounding economy anytime in the near future because the stock market does not reflect any true form of growth over the last 7 years. What has been pumped up is going to deflate like a jet propelled engine attached to a racing car going down a very long race track.
I’ve been in the stock market for about 20 years , ups, downs, sideways , you name it ,in 2011 I lost over $5000 in one day , these last 2 months , I’ve lost close to $20,000, GUESS WHAT ? I’m still in it , however , if it isn’t Greece , or China , or USA, or some other country the financial wizards will think of something to steal your money !!! Why not a collapse over Puerto Rico ? Guess it does not matter ? Thanks , for letting me put in my 2 cents worth !
This is a GREAT time to get OUT.
the worse things get, the better stocks look. when people are fearful, be greedy. when people are greedy, be fearful.
I’m beginning to think the same way, $1000 gold. The big correction so many analystas are suddenly anticipating may turn out to be a flash in the pan, despite all the good reasons for it. Markets sometimes don’t pay much attention to reality.
If you think the inflation index is being drug down by food, have you bought groceries lately? Hamburger has doubled per lb. and even pork has almost doubled. Do we have to live on chicken? Someone is shafting someone, like maybe Safeway?
Ben Franklin wisely said, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be.” However, this country has become a nation of borrowers – borrowing to become educated, to buy houses, to buy cars and other goods, to start and build businesses. Any serious downturn in business, and increasing numbers of us will go into default and bankruptcy. Most of us will soon be out of work, out on the street, and looking for a handout. Who will provide the handouts? Not the politicians whose policies put us there – that’s for sure.
The euro has been more resilient thus far than I thought possible, Market forces will balance the economy not the federal reserve.
Mike! You are right on target. Glad to read your realistic articles. Wishful thinking doesn’t do much to drive the market.
what do you say to this report by Chase?
1]JPMorgan Chase [2], one of the nations largest lenders, announced that their 2015 third quarter net income reached $6.8 billion, or $1.68 a share, up 22 percent year-over-year, according to the bank’s earnings statement [3] released Tuesday.
According to the company, net revenue fell 6.4 percent year-over-year to $23.5 billion, driven by lower CIB markets revenue including business simplification and lower mortgage banking revenue.
As lower investment securities balances and lower trading net interest income were mostly offset by loan growth, net interest income declined 1 percent from last year to $11.2 billion and was up 2 percent from last quarter, driven by higher loan yields and balances.
Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO at JPMorgan noted that the company had “decent” results this quarter.
“We saw the impact of a challenging global environment and continued low rates reflected in the wholesale businesses’ results, while the consumer businesses benefited from favorable trends and credit quality,” he said. “Overall, our risk management discipline and diversified platforms across the businesses are serving us well.â€
The statement showed that noninterest expense was driven down 3 percent to $15.4 billion in the third quarter by lower CIB expense related to compensation and business simplification, but slightly offset by higher legal expenses.
JPMorgan’s credit losses declined 10 percent to $682 million due to lower net charge-offs, which were largely offset by lower reserve releases.
The bank was also credited $2.2 billion after tax audits were resolved and deferred taxes were released.
“We continue to focus on our commitments, optimize our balance sheet and manage our expenses. We are also building the businesses for the future, dedicating resources to controls, cybersecurity and technology.â€
Mortgage banking net income with the company rose 29 percent year-over-year to $602 million, while net revenue fell 23 percent to $1.6 billion due to lower net servicing revenue and no non-recurring gain last year.
Noninterest expense was $1.1 billion for the third quarter, declining 13 percent due to mortgage efficiencies, the statement said.
Credit losses provisions were $534 million, a huge leap compared to a benefit of $19 million last year. JPMorgan explains that this was driven by a larger reduction in the allowance for loan losses reflecting improvement in home prices and delinquencies.
The third quarter provision reflected an allowance reduction of $575 million, of which $375 million was related to the purchased credit-impaired portfolio and $200 million was related to the non credit-impaired portfolio.
“Our position of strength allows us to make significant investments to transform the businesses we operate, deliver better experiences to our customers and clients, gain share and be positioned to be a long-term winner,”Dimon concluded.
Click here [3] to view the earnings statement.
Article printed from DSNews: http://dsnews.com
The only thing I can do is repeat what you guru’s have been saying these past seven years. We have gone where no one has gone before, printing funny money, distorting markets. My reading of the chicken livers says we are going to have it all blow up in our stupid faces. And dear God, may it cause so much pain to the idiots who caused it they will be afraid to ever play with matches again. We would be fine now if they had gone to jail instead of too big to fail.
Hi Michael,
Of course everything you mention is a serious problem. It all points to one MAJOR problem that you did not mention explicitly, but only implicitly and that is DEFLATION. I have mentioned this to you for what seems many months and, unfortunately and in a paradoxical manner, this deflation is the result of years on monetary INFLATION created by the central banks…Most sharp people understand this, what ultra-sharp and awake and aware people are wondering is: was this by design, to bring in a crisis in order to propose some solutions?? THAT is what the sharp folks are contemplating.
Billy: “It all points to one MAJOR problem that you did not mention explicitly, but only implicitly and that is…DEFLATION”
As I understand the history, we are right now seeing a HUGE version of the re-enactment of what happened at the 1929 crash and ensuing depression…then it was wealthy individuals who pumped money into the stock market to bolster everything…and it was REAL money at that time….and that did NOT work!
The setup of today is MUCH more dire!!!
Hello Mike, I’ve spent the last two years researching and learning everything I can about the markets and the economy. This includes your great Money & Markets subscription.
Here is my conclusion.
The US Economy reflects the manipulation of economic data to serve certain government and media agendas. If the perceived data is flawed and the economics laws are broken then the economic fundamentals are disconnected from the economic reality. The Fed’s 4.5 Trillion Quantitative Easing Program was a band aid to save our 60 Trillion Credit System . The QE has also created a currency war between the global central banks. Both the Stock Market and the Bond Market will have a massive correction, because the laws of economics will prevail.
Thank you.
Weston
You know Fred, it’s with all the humility that I can muster that I say I am totally mystified as to how two people can look at a set of facts and come to such completely opposite conclusions. This isn’t gray area stuff. Somebody is really right and someone is really wrong. Time will tell I guess, but it appears to me that the new Democrats could kill puppies on national television and still win elections. Maybe it’s me that’s the dumbbell . Jim
Jim: “could kill puppies on national television” …It’s not puppies these days, it’s the lives of human children that are the subject of the “planned parenthood” debate!
So true. The liberals have such a diehard agenda they won’t change until their world collapses economically and they get hungry. Most the Republicans are just RINOs too. Their solutions for too much debt is more debt right along with liberals.
The votes are already bought. When you rob Peter to pay Paul, you will have Paul’s support.
If our current situation is the result of Democracy, then I’m against it. Even Rousseau warned us that Democracy was a glorified form of mob rule and that such a system was doomed when the electorate discovered that it held the keys to the treasury. I guess that makes me an anarchist. Jim
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for dinner. The only hope for the sheep is to be well armed. Jim
so the u.s. navy is doing a heavily fortified drive-by next week of the spratley islands in the south china sea as a direct confrontational challenge against china’s territorial warnings. let the games begin.
$1,000 gold…I don’t think it’s a game this time. The stage is set and the forces are being moved into place. Larry’s “war cycle” theory is unfolding right in front of us.
And the beginning shots of that MAY be the black swan event the market prophets have been warning us about……
i think you’re right.
There is not (and never will be) the remotest chance for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Had the Palestinians accepted the 1947 U.N. proposal for a division of Palestine between Arabs and Jews, the Palestinians would today be living prosperous lives in their own State alongside Israel. But they rejected what the U.N. was proposing. Today they are paying the price. All too soon, they will be on their way to Europe, in dinghies that are less than seaworthy.
I live in Israel. There are no Israeli “counterattacks”. Palestinians have been killed only while in the act carrying out acts of murder on civilians. If you try kill, you may in turn be killed everywhere in the world. Why do you refer to self-defence in Israel as “counterattack”? Counterattack implies initiating an attack. No such official Israeli initiated attacks have occurred.
Long live Israel, the ONLY golden garden spot in the entire Middle East….. Should one ever doubt the argument of whom we should support in the Middle East, one only has to visit those countries or look at satellite pictures of the Middle East….. Except for Israel, little has change in the past 100 years as the Islamic Shea and Sunni continue to slaughter each other and hate the rest of the successful world…. :(
I fear with putin in Syria and with our leaderless president Obama once putin takes over most of Syria with the help of iran , I fear iraq will be next to be divided between both countrys …and if it happens watch out Saudi Arabia will be next hillery Clintons reset button with putin was a disaster and a complete joke on the amercian people and the the Mideast people who really just want to live peacefully but being a leader means you lead from the front YOU TAKE CHARGE BUT OBAMAS AND CLINTONS IDEA IS TO LEAD FROM BEHIND Obama will go down in history as the worst leader in American history and hillery with her lies and mistruths is going down too
You ever serve hawk5000? If you had, you would know that Putin’s military is basically a pimple on the butt of America’s military….. His ONLY revenue source is oil and gas and those prices are falling as the world finds more and more oil, despite the moves, all over the world, to switch to non fossil fuels for energy…..
war:
good article about china’s economy by mike larson, but no mention of america’s warships en route for a confrontation in the south china sea. our navy is so powerful it has undisputed control of the world’s oceans, a lesson china is about to learn next week. we’ll also see the economic result of hostilities like this, something overlooked by the author. let the games begin.
The sooner we stop buying from China, the sooner the threat of China goes away……Really is that simple….. Opening China (Nixon) was just another stupid GOP idea where the Ultra Wealthy industrialists that back the GOP thought they could rule the world by screwing American labor by shifting manufacturing to the slave labor of China… Boy, that benefited America, right?…. :(
we buy from china, just like we do from japan. problem for decades in japan haven’t hurt america’s economy, and i say the same for china. next week, america’s military confrontation in the south china sea will be of greater significance to the world. china’s recession won’t affect anyone but china, except walmart may benefit from cheaper imported wholesale good.
Will China go to war with their biggest market? You never know. China is run by communist politicians, but they are politicians, after all, and politicians are much the same, no matter what country they live in, or what political/economic philosophy they believe in.
All those laid off American workers trying to make ends meet with service type jobs aren’t going to be buying so much of those Chinese imports, are they? The managers of those ex-American manufacturers kind of cut off their nose to spite their face, I think.
our navy is so powerful it has undisputed control of the world’s oceans, a lesson china is about to learn next week. the lesson i’ll learn is, how will the market react?
Chuck,
You have just made the point as to why the economy and in turn, the average American does so much better under the Democrats…
historical charts i’ve studied verify what you say, eagle. bill clinton and barrack obama, to mention a couple, had bull markets during their entire presidencies. can’t say the same for dubya, but he was a good president and a great american, nonetheless.
How do I find out the annual report and the investors of Urban Funding, a private lender in the reverse mortgage market?
The Dollar is the common stock of our Federal govt.That govt is broke and the Dollar will fall.Got Gold?
between the political military and financial systems manipulating the communication system. If reality ever sets down I really don’t see how our systems can survive with the debt we have if a different currency becomes currency of choice ala IMF. That’s what I see coming our way. Trust well placed is the only security I see
It didn’t take an act of Congress (just an administrative rule change) to conveniently ignore the cost of food, fuel and utilities when calculating the CPI. That alone saved millions in cost of living increases for the people who rely on fixed incomes, food stamps, disability payments, etc. It also helped to hide the inflation that would show that the dollar is worth less now than it was prior to all the Quantitative Easing we have seen.
The 8 million jobs that disappeared during the first year of this administration were jobs that could pay an owner occupied home mortgage, college tuition, allow for some modicum of savings or retirement investments and a toy or two that was made in the USA. Those jobs have supposedly now been replaced by nearly as many temporary seasonal or holiday positions that generated another number for the Dept of Labor statistics. This administration has obviously found some of the best spin doctors to explain away the embarassing shortfalls and make the appropriate revisions to keep the general public from knowing the reality of the US/world economy bogus recovery outside the Beltway that surrounds Washington DC…
Mike,
It is the same old mantra you have been stating all along, and correctly. It’s right on but as long as society keeps borrowing and spending and debt continues to grow it’s hard to differentiate things like the jobs are part time versus full time or society having less disposable income. It’s hard for society to judge the basis of a stable economy. But once society decides to pay back its debt it will no longer be difficult to understand what happened and why debt has so weakened the world economies only years of slower growth will repair the damage.
i would have loved to subscribe to your service. but now i dont have a regular full time job and my business is collapsing. 6 years ago i had subscribed to your service.