Money and Markets - Financial Advice | Financial Investment Newsletter
Skip to content
  • Home
  • Experts
    • Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
    • Mike Burnick
    • Sean Brodrick
    • JR Crooks
    • Larry Edelson
    • Bill Hall
    • Mike Larson
    • Jon Markman
    • Mandeep Rai
    • Tony Sagami
    • Grant Wasylik
    • Guest Contributors
      • Amber Dakar
      • Peter Schiff
      • John Sheely
      • Claus Vogt
  • Blog
  • Resources
    • FAQ
    • Personal Finance Corner
      • Hot Tips
      • Investments
      • Money & Banking
      • Consumer Loans
      • College Savings
      • Retirement
      • Credit & Debt
      • Taxes
      • Insurance
      • Life & Home
      • Investment Portfolios
    • Links
  • Services
    • Premium Membership Services 
      • Money and Markets Inner Circle
    • Trading Services
      • Marijuana Millionaire
      • Tech Trend Trader
      • Calendar Profits Trader
      • E-Wave Trader
      • Money and Markets’ Natural Resource Investor
      • Money and Markets’ Natural Resource Options Alerts
      • Supercycle Investor
      • Wall Street Front Runner
      • Pivotal Point Trader
    • Investment Newsletters
      • Real Wealth Report
      • Safe Money
      • Disruptors and Dominators
      • The Power Elite
    • Books
      • The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide
      • Investing Without Fear
      • The Standard & Poor’s Guide for the New Investor
      • The Ultimate Safe Money Guide
    • Public Service
  • Media
    • Press Releases
    • Money and Markets in the News
    • Media Archive
  • Issues
    • 2017 Issues
    • 2016 Issues
    • 2015 Issues
    • 2014 Issues
    • 2013 Issues
    • 2012 Issues
    • 2011 Issues
    • 2010 Issues
    • 2009 Issues
    • 2008 Issues
    • 2007 Issues
  • Subscriber Login
  • Weiss Education

Money and Markets: Investing Insights

Monetary Tightening Threatens China’s Economic Prospects

Claus Vogt | Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 7:30 am

Claus Vogt

China’s role on the global stage has grown tremendously during the past several years. And there are valid reasons to believe this trend will continue. But it will not go as smoothly as many pundits assume …

On Christmas Day, Beijing raised the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent and 5.81 percent respectively. This is the second step in the current tightening cycle, following the first surprise 25 bps hike on October 19.

But that’s not all … reserve requirements have also been increased considerably during the year.

This monetary tightening is absolutely necessary, because …

China Has a Dual
Inflationary Problem

First, consumer prices rose 5.1 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest increase since July 2008. During the same time in the U.S, prices rose just 1 percent.

Second, China’s housing bubble is much bigger than the one that burst in the U.S. In fact, this year China constructed 12 to 15 million residential units. The U.S. built only 2.5 million units at the height of its 2006 housing boom. And as shown in the chart below, China’s housing bubble rivals Japan’s of the late 1980s.

Rising consumer and housing prices are symptoms of China’s easy money policy, which was in response to the 2008 global crisis. Moreover, relative to its GDP, the Chinese government’s stimulus was much larger than the huge programs the U.S. and Europe implemented.

Now Chinese officials have obviously realized they have an inflationary problem. And they are addressing the problem via the only viable policy: Interest rate hikes and higher bank reserve requirements.

That, however, may turn out to be the prick that pops China’s housing bubble. And this bubble is big enough to pose a real threat to China’s short- to- medium-term economic prospects.

Already …

China’s Stock Market Is
Showing Relative Weakness

Interest rate hikes are bearish for the stock market. And this well-known relationship also applies to China. Look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. Since its high in mid-2009, it’s one of the weakest performers globally.

As such it conveys a message … and this message is clearly bearish. The stock market seems to be discounting an unpleasant surprise coming out of China. And to me it looks as if the Chinese stock market has just begun another major down wave.

In the chart below, you can see that the 200-day moving average is falling, and the price momentum oscillator (PMO) is hovering around the zero line. Indeed, the technicals are supporting my bearish interpretation.

My suggestion: Stay tuned. China is on a dangerous road. An unpleasant surprise may be in the offing.

In the meantime, you might consider an inverse exchange traded fund (ETF) to protect yourself from a decline in the Chinese market or even profit from a decline.

The ProShares Short FTSE China 25 (YXI) is one such example …

YXI seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the FTSE China 25 Index. So for every 1 percent decline in the index, YXI is meant to rise 1 percent.

The FTSE China 25 Index is comprised of 25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. And if my misgivings for China become reality, this index is sure to take a beating.

Wishing you a Safe, Happy and Profitable New Year!

Claus

P.S. I have just released my new book, The Global Debt Trap: How to Escape the Danger and Build a Fortune, which I think is timed perfectly for what’s happening in China and the other the events swirling around us.

For the complete foreword of The Global Debt Trap by Martin D. Weiss, click here. For more on the authors, click here.

{ 3 comments }

fun Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 11:51 am

I read most of your articles and am very enjoying them. One thing I would like to say: The population in China is much higher than US. Most of the residential houses are bought by cash or at least pay 20% or more down pay. So they are not so easy to burst like here.

Thanks,

Sandro Florentino Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 1:09 pm

Then what is your view on Commodities – everyone buying for the China and Asia Story

This will change everything and should start showing up in the Markets.

Richard Huopana Wednesday, December 29, 2010 at 3:43 pm

Claus, in comparing the inflation rates of China and the U.S. are you comparing apples to apples…or apples to oranges? For example, does the China inflation rate include energy and food?

Previous post: One reason to bet on U.S. stocks in 2011

Next post: Six ETFs to Consider Dumping Today

  • Sign Up Free

    To receive editorial updates from The Weiss Center for Investor Advancement and Money and Markets, type in your email address. We respect your privacy

  • About Us
  • FAQ
  • Legal
  • Privacy
  • Whitelist
  • Advertising
  • Contact Us
  • ©2025 Money and Markets - Financial Advice | Financial Investment Newsletter.
Weiss Research
Weiss Research, Inc., founded in 1971, has a long history of providing research and analysis designed to empower investors with information and tools to make more informed, independent decisions along with an equally long history of public service. [More »]