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Our controversial president is at it again — this time for firing FBI director James Comey. We all know it. It’s all over the news.
But as an investor, it’s not for me to join in on the political debate about whether Comey’s dismissal was justified or not. I’ll leave that to the political pundits — and there are plenty of them — to blather about whether President Trump colluded with the Russians or obstructed justice.
Instead, my job — as a professional investor — is to push my personal biases aside, and ignore the drama in the popular press. I take a dispassionate view. That helps me analyze the impact of this new political information on the financial markets and, more importantly, what it means for my clients and their precious investment capital.
Indeed, “impeachment” is suddenly the buzzword in Washington. Democrats — and even a Republican —for the first time are discussing openly the prospect of forcibly removing President Trump from office.
“I was in the Nixon administration … and I thought after watching the Clinton impeachment I’d never see another one,” said former presidential aide David Gergen on CNN. “But I think we’re in impeachment territory now for the first time … obstruction of justice was the number one charge against Nixon.”
That’s why — as murmurs about impeachment spread across Washington, D.C., from the House and Senate floors to the cooks in the carry-out kitchen beneath the Capitol — I went to work looking for real-life data to help me assess the potential financial market impact on what President Trump has personally called “the single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history!”
You may not know this. But unlike in the U.S., online wagering is legal across most of Europe and Asia. It’s part of the fabric of their everyday life. In fact, wagering is so deeply embedded in their culture that most of the European bookmakers are large, publicly traded companies. They have pristine balance sheets and cutting-edge technology that ensures payouts are made and processed correctly.
The sophistication of these European bookmakers rivals the trading platforms of the world’s best banks, brokerages and insurance companies. All-in-all they are legit, highly regulated companies.
While most of the online trading revolves around sports, they also maintain an active market in posting the odds about the outcome of certain political events.
That’s why — as a “numbers man” — I take a look at what these wagering sites are saying about political events. After all, they provide real odds and quantify the potential outcomes in real-time. Their money-sanctioned quotes act much like a brokerage firm for political opinion … with real money changing hands between real people on each side of an issue.
Put simply, it’s very much like putting your money where your mouth is.
And here’s what these online bookmakers are currently saying:
For the first time, the odds — posted by British bookmakers — are better than ever that President Trump won’t survive his four-year term in office. Online bettors are increasingly wagering against the future of our president’s Oval Office tenure.
After the Comey news was reported this week, Katie Baylis, a spokeswoman for London-based betting exchange Betfair, said, “Overnight we’ve seen large flows bet on Trump to leave before the end of his first term, and we expect to see a lot more bet today, with his odds now shortening from even to 5/6.”
For those not familiar how fractional odds work, 5/6 quote means a 55% likelihood that President Trump leaves office before his stint is slated to end in early 2021.
Wow, 55% odds that he won’t make it … that’s shocking!
But Betfair isn’t alone, there’s more! Irish bookmaker Paddy Power reports the odds are now 2/1 (33.3%) that Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term.
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Drilling in further, Paddy Power prices treason 10/3 (23.1%) as the most likely reason, followed by tax evasion 4/1 (20%), perjury (12.5%) and bribery (9.1%). An outright Trump resignation is priced at 15/8, implying a 35% chance.
“Impeachment has been a hugely popular topic ever since Election Day — when it was 16/1 (5.9%), immediately after news of Trump’s victory emerged. By the time of his inauguration, the price was at 10/19 (9.1%),” said Lee Price, spokesperson at Paddy Power, in emailed comments.
“We’ve been betting on impeachment for all recent U.S. presidents but, even at the height of the Lewinsky scandal, Bill Clinton was only ever 6/1 (14.3%) to be impeached,” he added.
The big point here is that no one knows for sure whether these odds are spot-on or not — my experience tells me that they probably aren’t, but they are directionally correct.
Here’s what I mean: With the odds moving significantly against Trump, what we can conclude from the European bookmakers posting is that political risk is increasing — and increasing dramatically.
While this is not surprising, because as I pointed out in my January 6, Money and Markets article, Trump’s approach is unconventional. And in the financial markets, “unconventional” usually translates to uncertainty, risk and volatility. And that’s not a value judgment about whether his communication style is good or bad. It’s merely another way of saying “it is what it is.”
In fact, for investors, a little volatility can be a good thing. It allows us to reshuffle our positions and benefit from market moves.
In the Safe Money portfolio, subscribers have recently profited handsomely from the stock market hedges in GLD and TLT while also posting gains so far this year in 12 best-of-breed growth stocks (aka the Dependable Dozen). Moreover, the TLT and GLD positions provide peace-of-mind and downside protection when political risk begins to boil over as it has over the past week.
In a nutshell, with the action — as well as the temperatures — heating up in Washington, D.C., my advice remains the same: Keep your hedges on and watch the 10-Year U.S. Treasury like a hawk. The 10-year will tell you where the stock market is headed. And if you are interested in political events and how they influence the financial markets, the odds posted at Paddy Power and Betfair can provide some money-making information too.
Best wishes,
Bill Hall
P.S. Check out these Sin Stocks! They deal in the “forbidden” products your mother warned you about … And Bloomberg Markets® says they’re already making investors up to 50 times richer. Obscene profits: 11 Sin Stocks to buy immediately … Outrageous growth: 10 MORE super growth stocks set to multiply your money in 2017 … Alarming news: 101 landmines in your portfolio — stock market dogs nobody should own today … Click here to read my free report on sin stocks today!
Bill Hall is the editor of the Safe Money Report. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Besides his editorial duties with Weiss Research, Bill is the managing director of Plimsoll Mark Capital, a firm that provides financial, tax and investment advice to wealthy families all over the world.
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So how did these same bookies do with predicting Brexit and with Trump getting elected in the first place? Maybe best to say that these odds tell us that Impeachment will not happen.
You are absolutely right, especially since there isn’t one iota of evidence. Impeachment isn’t even a consideration to concern yourself with now. Trump will be President for 8 years. Pence for 4 and Ivanka for 8 more years. Democrats won’t see White House for 24-32 years. Even if Trump did talk to Russians about anything he wanted to, it is legal under law. The President decides what it right or wrong. Not the Far Left Media. Look for growing stock market and for silver and gold to start marching their way to 5 fold gains for the next 2 years.
WELL mr hall what are your bookies saying are the chances of a re-investigation of Hillery Rodham Clinton by the FBI NOW THAT Comey has been fired WELL HERE ILL TELL YOU 100%
From what I remember, the bookies got all these wrong. It’s hard to take them seriously. The people making the bets have no exceptional information. But they’re mostly driven by the identical media hype on both sides of the Atlantic.
It won’t happen, because we’ll get that much need 20% or more correction/bear badly needed! And you don’t think they already though that through? unless there’s some truth to the Russian manipulating election scandal… i can’t see and don’t want Pence running the show!
I find this column so funny. Not humorous or clever, but strange. I didn’t see any of these columns/articles when Barry (Rules for Radicals) Obama was President. No.Not.One.
Perhaps the lack of articles of this nature during Obama’s tenure reflect the fact that he was sane and competent. But of course this would not be obvious to those who themselves lack these traits.
Mr. Trump was not my first choice, but thank God he is slashing regulations; increasing religious liberties, cutting illegal border crossing by 70%; added thousands of jobs and potential jobs AND most importantly he’s not bowing to foreign leaders and doing an apology tour. Unlike Barry the Organizer, he has actually held a job outside government and was very successful at it. Yes, he is a novice, but the election of Hillary would have been more of the same…..you know, the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing expecting a different outcome. The Americans people aren’t insane.
yea yea yea ok Eagle 495
Exactly
The reason you didn’t see anything like this was because Barak Obama was humble enough to learn how a president is supposed to conduct himself. Donal Trump has yet to learn a lot of things about his new job. Wish him well on his journey.
Nor the mention of collusion when BARACK OBAMA was caught with his microphone on and the whole world heard ( JUST WAIT TILL AFTER THE ELECTION ILL BE MORE FLEXIBLE WITH OUR MISSILES ) and what did barry obama do he gave UP the united states new technology long range ICBMS for RUSSIAN old style short and mid range missiles WOW WHAT A DEAL if anybody should have been impeached it should have been obama for treason and collusion with the russians but not a peep from the democrats only if anyone tried to say anything that they were racists and haters but since the election ( the win ) over the democrats the only word in their mouth is impeachment too bad their memory is so short bill clinton was impeached by congress
What an interesting column! It gives a new spin to the evening news. I personally believe the resignation scenario may prevail. Not long after he was elected, Mr. Trump said, “This job is harder than I thought,” and I doubt that even a seasoned politician is fully prepared for life under the glass in the DC swamp. I think Mr. Trump is going to wake up one morning and realize that his life is finite and no longer fun. He’s already achieved the impossible by being elected and can take that accomplishment with him.
That’s the real reason why Trump would not serve out his term. National politics is not a reality show. And certain close family members — like Melania and Ivanka — were clear from the start that they didn’t want him to run.
The media (Press) have a vandetta against Trump. I’m not a Trump supporter but am sick and tired of the Press c-ap about Trump and Russia. No he will not be impeached. Resign? Maybe, he will find out that you can’t beat the establishment.
This is what happens when you have an incompetent unqualified fund raiser in the White house for 8 years like Obama! The world goes to the dogs and people slide backwards . Time for the world and especially here in the U.S. to put their adult pants on and grow up (can’t say big boy because someone will surely be offended). This is the world Obama brought us, not to mention 20 Trillion in debt, ISIS and the rest of the current problems. Trump is NOT going anywhere. Yeah he’s got a big mouth and doesn’t know how to play politics but is he really any different from them? Actually yes, he made his billions in business and not by insider trading and accepting favors from donors, anybody remember the Clinton foundation for one? They’re all liars and cheats and Democrats are very good liars and cheats and as long as they can keep a narrative going they will because they have no power and are hoping to pickup seats in November.
Unfortunately the foolish masses believe everything a very left media says instead of researching and finding out for them selves. Once upon time there was a time when people were able to deal with disagreement, now they cry, protest, shutdown free speech, attack and destroy everything that disagrees with them…The elite are so afraid of Trump that I believe he won’t step down but will be taken out by them. Remember the Kennedy’s? Lets not forget about the liberal mantra of one world order. Global village anyone…Funny how Democrats wanted Comey’s head and when they got it, it’s the crime of the century…people, people, people, wake up…
Well put.
Gmdsr. Thank you for such clarity
AND THE BEST PART NOW IS HILLERY RODHAM CLINTON ………. since comey is gone the FBI is opening up her case again too bad for the clintons but good for getting this country back on track and your going to find out comey hid info on clinton so did lorreta lynch the attorney general so did susan rice with the NSA AND LETS NOT FORGET OBAMA i expect to see the democrats whine again like usual its not fair ITS JUST NOT FAIR
You sure nailed it.
“unconventional usually translates into uncertainty, risk, and volatility.” But notice that the VIX recently has been hovering around lows covering a period going back many years. This could indicate that the markets are unconcerned about the Media hype surrounding Trump. The recent facts released surrounding the murder of Seth Rich, the DNC staffer who it now turns out looks like he was the conduit for the leaked DNC emails, rather than Russia, contains much more real, fact based news, disastrous in the extreme for the Democrats. Although the Media is covering up this story now, an impeachment trial would guarantee that this news would be brought out in front of the public. I’m sure as I can be, that if this story about Seth Rich’s murder ever becomes publicly known, it would take the Democratic party down to much lower lows than even the news about their sabotaging the Sanders campaign ever did.
I was sure Seth Rich was murdered by the Democratic machine as soon as it happened. Glad it is finally getting some traction.
I hope justice is served. Like you, I “knew” this was who was leaking the DNC emails and paid for it with his life. Seems “21 intel agencies” (the number always grows), were wrong after all. Russia Collusion is just the cover-up for their cover-up. But hey with the media and now Money and Markets on your side, who needs the truth.
Fox has retracted its assertion of a conspiracy, sad. So this will go the way of Pizzagate and those who are so inclined must wait for the next round of internet lunacy. I’m sure Putin’s stooges will float something soon.
One of the problems that holds Weiss back, in my opinion, is that your writings are so enamored with the GOP, yet there are lots of public studies that show that the Economy and the Stock Market do MUCH better under Democratic leadership. Check out recent articles in Fortune and Forbes (certainly right of center!) which looked back roughly 40 years. If you go back to 1929 the difference is astoundingly in the Democrates corner by hundreds of percentage points…..
It is basically simple economics as the MAJORITY of the citizens do better when the Democrates are in power and ONLY the Wealthy (who fund the Republicans) do better under Republican leadership.
Eagle495, so you buy the lie that Democrats (aka marxists) are better for the economy than Republicans? Even if this were true, you would rather have a woman so corrupt and paid for by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood that she was fired by a liberal Democrat from the staff of the Watergate committee for dishonesty? More importantly, which is more important? Dangerous freedom or peaceful slavery? Your country or your portfolio? I think I know your answer.
Eagle495 – I feel so sorry for the poor and famished Clintons, and I should like to know how little it is that poor Obama can make off speaches these days.
Hogwash. If Liberals do so well these days, please explain Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore and the wonderful state of California. All basket cases.
You guys really need to take the time to do some real study. Perhaps a little more education? I’m betting you believe FAUX News is for real, aye? For example, who really brought GATT and NAFTA and how those trade deals effected the above cities?…. Any of you guys ever work a good paying Union job?
lets not forget saint louis missouri new york washington D.C. seattle kansas city milwaukee
It’s quite obvious. Wall Streeters are in Trump’s highest tax bracket. Trump’s proposal (at least pre-election) gives the biggest tax cuts to the upper echelon. Modest cuts for us normal folk, but bigger cuts for the wealthy. (I defy anyone to read it.) See: the Republicans slather themselves in the mantra that tax cuts for wealthy creates jobs. I’d like to see the data/analysis; it’s not as simple as rehashing Reaganomics. But I digress. It’s a shame these topics weren’t relevant pre-election; all we got were two infants doing the dozens.
“Eagle495,”
Really? You believe that. Prosperity created by Reagan policies and enjoyed by
Bill Clinton invalidates your theory. Arguably, some give all the credit to Clinton
who was clever enough not to kill the golden goose and continued most of Reagan’s policies.
Time to recheck your facts. The Dems have become the party of the 1%. Talk about rich, old white people – look at the top Dems.
Tax and Spend….not necessarily in that order
When the economy is propped up by the majority of the sycophantic, butt-kissing American Press (as was done for the majority of Obama’s regime), you will have a false economic prosperity – which will need to be paid for and reconciled at some point in our future…by our grandchildren.
yea well it sure didnt work that way under obama and co. what a incompetent fool
I think I’d like to take those odds from the European bookies. Their view of American is very skewed by our “Hate Trump” 24/7 fake news media that most don’t actually know what’s happening on our political landscape. Unfortunately there are many sheeple here in the US that are oblivious as well. They are too busy with their reality TV programs to have a clue about the actual reality of US and world events. Sad, but that is the way the media and big money want it. Lie to the those who will listen and keep as many as possible enamored with foolishness on the left hand while the real events are happening just out of sight to their right.
I met many Europeans in South Africa and I was shocked how they hated Trump and knew nothing of American politics.
especially since these bookies are irish and in ireland they are liberals
and one country in general will lose big if trump gets his tax cuts and a lower corporate tax here means corporations will be leaving ireland in droves and coming back to the united states
Funny how the swamp creatures raise howls of protest when the swamp starts to drain. What did he expect?
So unfortunate that 495 is so biased against what is best for America. I am independent and happily voted for needed change as the last regime wasted 10 trillion dollars and than needed low interest rays to subjugate our country into a third world country with almost half the population on the taxpayer’s teat. We need Americans like Trump doing what is BEST for America not a political party that is now outdated and is all about special interests. If Bill Clinton could do his immoral behavior in the People’s house and could still be president, quit wasting our time talking about the news media, the deep state and the neocons about impeachment. Let’s talk about the economy and how we can best survive the onslaught of government incompetency and waste. The general pubic is fighting two major wars big government and big business–small town America is dying and big cities are breeding unrest and envy.
Speaking of Bill. The Democrats have shifted so far left so fast, that if Bill Clinton were in office today and tried to pass his Welfare Reforms, he’d be shot down and called a racist for having the nerve to think having generational welfare isn’t good for a country.
Discussion is moot. Even if Trump survives, the uncertainty of the protracted investigations will quash any Wall St. gains. Investors won’t be certain the corporations will be given their tax cuts, which is the thrust of recent stock gains. Puts are appropriate here, as they were in 2008.
It’s interesting that Trump won office under the guise of being a businessman, but now admits he is a politician (see Tweet above). As such, he is as firmly under the thumb of the swamp critters as any other politician – especially Republicans. The last such businessman/politician to win the Presidential office was Hoover, and we all know what happened under his administration. Whether he is impeached or not, I wonder what odds the bookies give of a repeat.
Well said Mr. Burton…….. Only two Stock Market Crashes and Depressions in the past 100 years and BOTH occurred with Republican Presidents and Republican Majority Congresses AFTER long periods of Republican Domination (1929- Hoover and 2008- Cheney/bush)….. And BOTH recoveries happened after the Republicans were voted out and Democratic Presidents and Democratic Majoirty Congresses were elected (FDR- 1932 and Obama- 2009)…..
HEYYYY CHUCKKKKYY i think what trump is saying is he is used to being a businessman but now since he is president he has to get used to being a politician and working with both sides he is a much better president 10x over obama no make that 100x no maybe 1000x …….
LOL , Trump ain’t going anywhere – his popularity is off the charts in-spite of the ramped up Witch Hunt being conducted by the Anti-Americans. What a Despicable Bunch of Politicians – Pelosi , Waters , Schumer , Feinstein , McCain etc. Hillary Clinton can ignore direct FBI Directives , Ignore Inquiries from Congress – Divulge Top Secrets , Destroy Evidence , Destroy Laptops , Her scam – Pay Me For Favors and Donate to my Clinton Foundation and I will grant your requests – Pure Madness !
Trump will Prevail and that is what they fear – Their Russian Propaganda is beyond Bizarre – No one with a sane mind believes those lies – But CIA and Army MInd Control are working overtime hammering the lies onto the Fake News
Am I to conclude that after all of the crooked dealings by the previous administration, that we Americans are so stupid as to believe the contrived malfeasance by the loony left that Mr Trump is deserving of impeachment?
Sadly, it is obvious that the opposition will use any means to stop the changes mandated by the people (me for one). “The end justifies the means”.
May GOD help us.
Kurt
I’ve been convinced for many years that Nixon’s sin that got him ejected from office was
only one issue, his determination to get the Communists out of our WW II and later government. Joe McCarthy’s problems were the same. Carl Helmle
Eagle 495: That does not make sense, saying that the majority of citizens do better with Democrats in power, and only the wealthy, who fund the Republicans, do better in Republican governments. The rich are most heavily invested in the stock market. The average person has a very small part of his wealth in the stock market. So if Democratic governments are so good for the stock market, they are also better for the rich. So the rich must be very dumb for supporting Republicans! Or maybe, the stock market does better under democrats but the overall economy does not. It appears silly to look at this as a rich versus poor phenomena. The reasons why the rich prefer Republicans (supposedly…look at silicon valley), is quite more complex and philosophical than simply looking at numbers.
Was’nt it the community organizer from Chicago that ran up 9T in debt in 8 years?
A house divided falls.Anyone becoming President today is in for a hard time.I don’t know if the Titanic will sink on Trump’s watch.Obama managed to keep the Titanic afloat for 8 years,due 100% to the support of the Fed,who bought $trillions of debt.I don’t know if Trump can count on the Fed,to bail him out,without causing a run on the Dollar.The whole thing is resting on the U.S. Dollar.If it goes,game is finally over.Would force govt to go back to a money backed,honest currency.Gold(AKA money) would be primary beneficiary.
Betting tells us nothing. All that is happening is that a lot of people are placing bets against Trump or even just a few who are laying down serious money. The money is on him to fail, that’s all. Are the people betting being fed information? I don’t think so, they are merely expressing an opinion.
I am so sick of this deep state banter from this author and other Statist hedge fund managers that love the globalist agenda to make money despite our long term National demise.
Bullocks. He won’t be impeached. No legal validity.
BETS DON’T NECESSARILY EQUAL OUTCOMES
If you recall, a year ago these very same online bookmakers were busily taking bets (wagers) as to who was most likely to win the 2016 Presidential election. The odds were distinctly in favor of Hillary Clinton but she still badly lost the election. So, what people (voters) or foreigners may think or even how much of their own money they are willing to bet or lose is not necessarily predictive of outcomes at all, as history proves.
A lot of delusive comments! I guess we’ll know after next Tuesday.
Since my letter arrived over the weekend I figured I should wait until the weekend was over for someone from your office to either censor it or moderate it. The point I have in mind is
the United States has been quite likely to be taken over by a government which is the opposite of what our Fathers had in mind when they wrote the Constitution. It has not been difficult for anyone watching to see the progress the Communists, Democrats, pro-dictators
are working toward since President Wilson. Carl Helmle