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| Tony Sagami and Martin Weiss |
In the 45 years since I founded this company, I’ve rarely had the pleasure of announcing news that’s as exciting — and as personally rewarding — as this:
Tony Sagami, a market-timing genius who first started working with me in the 1980s, is back with Weiss Research full time.
To mark the occasion, I gave him a call. I also wanted to better understand how he’s timing his trades in this topsy-turvy environment. Here’s the transcript of our conversation, edited for clarity …
Martin D. Weiss: Welcome back, Tony!
Tony Sagami: Thanks, Martin. But what took you so long to call?
Martin: Huh?!
Tony: Ha-ha! Just kidding! But just since I’m back full time, I’ve already done a lot. Wrote 10 editions of Money and Markets. Put on a series of new trades in my hotline service. On the way to making lots of money.
Martin: I know that. But I also know a lot about your exploits of years past.
Tony: Uh-oh.
Martin: I know how you scored time after time …
Tony: Really? You know about that stuff?
Martin: … as a math whiz in school, and then as a pioneer of computerized investing. Back in those days, most Wall Street pros had no clue about using computer models to invest. You were way ahead of your time.
Tony: Thanks for saying that. But now everything has changed. The Street is crawling with “quants.” I’m talking about youngsters who live and breathe math, who think their computers can do all the heavy lifting to time the market.
Martin: True?
Tony: Sometimes. But for the average investor, there’s a far better tool — easier, more accessible, more profitable. It’s the oldest investment tool of all time. It’s a tool everyone has. Something everyone uses every day.
Martin: No more suspense, please!
Tony: I’m talking about the calendar, the Gregorian calendar — exactly the same one that was first introduced to the world back in 1582! The point is, right now, that calendar is packed with a series of prescheduled events that are guaranteed to happen, that we know about way ahead of time.
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Not only do we know exactly when the important calendar events will occur, we also have a reliable way of knowing how they will most likely move the market.
That’s where my math comes in. On one recent event alone, you could have seen profits of 55%, 142% even 545% in just ten days. On another, the gains were 389%, 411%, 578%, up to 722%.
Martin: Again in just ten days?
Tony: In just ten days!
Martin: Tell us more.
Tony: I will — on June 14. That’s when I’m going to release my first special report on this. Only to our readers, mind you. And only to those who sign up for it now, ahead of time.
Editor’s note: To sign up for Tony’s report, go here.
Martin: Thanks for the heads up. But that’s not what I meant. I meant tell us more right now. Specifically, when you say “important calendar events,” I assume you’re talking about a lot of big shockers.
Tony: No. Just a small number of those. But yes, enough of ’em to make this one heck of a hot summer … and autumn!
Martin: Name some please.
Tony: Sure.
June 14, little over a week from now. The Fed is expected to finally announce a rate hike. And even though a lot of people think they know what the impact will be, it could be a big shocker.
July 26. The Fed! Again! Possibly another bombshell.
September 24. Spotlight shifts to Germany. Big federal elections. Merkel favored to win. But some observers predicting the biggest upset in modern European history.
October 13-15. IMF meeting in D.C. Usually a ho-hum affair? You bet. But not this year! Trump hates trade deficits, especially with Germany and China. So this could be the venue that his administration uses to drop a market-busting bombshell designed to obliterate U.S. trade deficits: A de-facto dollar devaluation!
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| Tony Sagami is one of the world’s foremost calendar-trading experts. |
Also coming this fall. China’s Communist Party Congress. Major political shake-up possible. Possible adjustments in their five-year plan. Another big market mover? Will let you know when we get a bit closer.
Martin: These are the kind of events that generate those large triple-digit gains you mentioned earlier, right?
Tony: Wrong! The examples I gave you earlier were profits on smaller, more ordinary, economic releases that come out like clockwork every month.
Martin: You gotta be kidding! Which ones?
Tony: Boring stuff.
Martin: Sorry, pal. But the trades you mentioned are anything but boring.
Tony: OK. Things like the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index. Comes out in the beginning of every month. Causes pretty big moves in XLY, the ETF that tracks the Consumer Discretionary sector. Even bigger moves in the options on XLY.
Or like the Global Billings Report issued by the Semiconductor Industry Association, also in the first week of every month. Big mover of XLK, an ETF that tracks tech sector.
Plus many more like these. They’re not supernovas like a big Fed rate hike or the election upset of the century. But they’re the ones that crank out profit opportunities like a well-oiled cash machine. They’re also more predictable.
Martin: Why’s that?
Tony: Because they’re recurring events. So we have a history, a pattern to look back on. I figure that’s where all those spitballs have finally paid off.
Martin: Spitballs?
Tony: Yeah. I was always the kid sitting in the front of math class. I lost count of all the spitballs I got hit with in the back of my head from jealous classmates. “Damn you, Sagami!” they used to say. “You’re just gonna #@%$ up our bell curve!”
Martin: So, what’s the math behind the calendar?
Tony: I call it my Event Impact Index. It gives me a probability rating for the market impact of each calendar event, ranging from +3 to -3.
Martin: Which means …
Tony: A +3 rating means an almost definite surge in the market. That generates a tremendous opportunity on the upside. A -3 rating is equally certain, but indicating an almost definite plunge, a tremendous opportunity on the downside. Anything near those levels is great.
Martin: What about, say, +2 or -2?
Tony: Also good trading opportunities. It’s the readings in the middle — close to zero — that are in the dead zone. I don’t care how earth-shattering people may say the event is going to be, if I can’t get a reading well above (or below) zero, I won’t touch it.
Martin: In other words, you won’t issue a trade recommendation at all.
Tony: Right. There’s no law that says we have to trade every event. That’s the beauty of this. I can pick and choose the ones that give me the highest impact ratings.
I call this “calendar profits.” It’s tried, tested and proven. Since we started doing it here at Weiss Research, we’ve delivered 42 out of 64 profitable trades. Average winners have been three times larger than average losers. And we’re just warming up.
Martin: Thanks, Tony. But before we cut off here, can you tell us how you discovered this?
Tony: There was no “eureka” moment. I don’t think it would even be fair of me to say I was the one who “discovered” it. Other great minds recognized it before I did.
All of us live by a calendar to some extent. It’s just that in my family’s case, the calendar dictated our life.
Martin: In what way?
Tony: We just talked about how I was a math nerd in class. What we didn’t talk about is what I used to do outside of class. As soon as the bell rang, I went back to being the son of a poor vegetable farmer in western Washington.
For my classmates, summer meant swimming, baseball, and vacations. For me, it meant pulling up weeds for long, hard hours of work under the hot sun. My life was very controlled by the weather and especially by the months of the year.
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| Tony picking turnips in Washington state |
Martin: Just the summer?
Tony: Heck no! Farm work didn’t suddenly disappear after Labor Day. It’s just the type of work that changed, and it changed like clockwork. The fall was busy with the task of getting the farm ready for the cold winter months.
My non-farmer friends assumed farmers took it easy during the winter. But that was a fallacy, too. Yeah, there may not have been any crops to harvest, but the off-season work was heavy — repairing farm machinery, mending fences.
Finally, in the spring, my father would have me pick rocks out of the fringes of the farm and spread fertilizer — cow dung that my father got in trade from a neighboring dairy farmer.
Martin: Sounds like the calendar defined your life growing up.
Tony: And continues to play an important role in my adult, professional life as an investment analyst and trader.
Martin: Thanks, Tony. Looking forward to your special report.
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
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Are we in for a gold tranche? The possible dollarization of the world economy. What about GDP at factor costs and GDP at market prices? I think we are gonna see a boom in those. What about the current account budget surplus? Is there gonna be a boom in that? We are probably in the growth section, of a boom, recession, depression, recovery and growth cycle. How big is the boom gonna be? What’s gonna happen to net foreign income? Are we gonna see an increase in an increase in foreign direct investment? What about the solow steady state residual. We are possibly gonna see a rise in this. Even possibly a rise the golden steady state level of income. What about economies of scale? Are there gonna be increasing returns to labour and capital. Is there gonna be capital intensive growth. Is there gonna be an increase to the income of human beings worldwide. I think we will see a lot of labour intensive growth and capital intensive growth. We might even see a bigger boom than the last boom in 2007. I think we will see a massive boom and huge increases in the standards of living of human beings especially in Europe and America. What is gonna happen to GDP in the very long run ie 10 years. It is impossible to say. One of life’s mysteries I guess. We are in for possibly one of the biggest booms the world economy has ever seen. Boom, recession, depression, recovery and growth. Its fascinating to see where we are in this cycle.
I predict a boom in leveraged exchange traded funds, unleveraged exchange traded funds, mining stock, futures and options. Is there gonna be a call option, which means there’s gonna be buying of gold or a put option, the selling of gold. IamGold is
Sounds interesting. Look forward to reading your commentaries.
There are also ex-dividend dates. A stock may rise a bit before those dates, particularly if a dividend increase is announced, then fall by the amount of the dividend on the ex-date. It takes a sizable holding, but can be traded for profit. Watch the taxes though.
Where is the price of gold headed ?
Welcome back Tony, still interested in P Cell since Perlman and Google hooked up, bought Webpass, lots of possibilities, support from Nokia …
Good to see you again Tony! Look forward to your thoughts on dividend stocks particularly Nagacorp. Everyone seems keen on emerging markets but I think it’s the frontier markets that will outperform.