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Last week I told you to keep your eyes glued on gold. I hope you’ve done so. Gold has continued to shed value, right on target with my cycle forecast for a potential major low late this month.
I’m presenting the forecast chart again, yet a third time that I am showing it to you. Why a third time?
Because I want you to be fully ready for a major gold rally that could start at any moment.
Ditto for silver. For platinum. For palladium.
You can see it clearly on that chart. The green line. It’s the cycle forecast. Notice how gold should rally into mid-December, then fall into the first of January, then explode higher in stair-step fashion heading into the middle of March.
If everything goes according to the forecast model, that rally into next March should be the first leg up in gold’s new bull market. Ditto for the other precious metals.
And ditto for mining shares. Yes, as badly beaten up as they have been, losing as much as 90 percent of their value, and in some cases, even more — since their highs …
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Mining shares should soon bottom and follow the precious metals higher. But you definitely have to be very selective with mining shares these days. You might think that those companies that survived the devastation should then thrive as metal prices start to rally.
That’s logical. But that doesn’t mean it’s right. There are plenty of mining companies who won’t even benefit from rising precious metal prices. Some have hedged or sold forward their reserves. Others don’t have the gross profits to pay off debt as interest rates also start to rise.
And still others may think that any precious metals rally that comes their way may just be an opportunity to sell their production and reserves forward, thinking that the metals are just bouncing a tad, and that they remain in bear markets for years to come.
Other than for short-term speculation, I’m not even sure some of the mining ETFs will help you. To make money in mining shares over the next several years, you’re going to have to be extremely selective purchasing mining companies. Period.
What about other precious metal-related investments? Should you buy numismatic coins, rare coins, bars and ingots? Which offer the best deal, the best upside?
Should you buy physically-backed gold and silver ETFs? What about storage for physical gold and silver? Store it at home? In the backyard? At your bank? In the U.S.? Or overseas?
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Naturally, members of my Real Wealth Report and my Supercycle Trader will have all the answers to those questions — and many more — as the new bull market unfolds.
And to the extent I can, I will help you as well. However, I can’t give you all the advice my members get. I’m sure you understand why.
Nevertheless, there are a few general things I’d like to give you a heads up on right now.
If my forecast comes to pass, as I’m sure it will …
FIRST, most of your colleagues will tell you you’re nuts to invest in precious metals now. Don’t let that bother you. Instead, take it as a bullish sign. At important lows in any market, the majority always thinks it’s nuts to buy that market, asset, or sector.
SECOND, same goes for your financial advisor or broker. They generally don’t like it when their customers buy precious metal investments.
Chief reasons: One, the investments are often held for years. And two: Relatedly, they don’t make as much in commissions or hidden fees as they do in stocks, bonds or other types of investments.
THIRD: Don’t wait for signs of inflation to buy or even to feel good about buying. Inflation will have very little to do with this next bull market in precious metals.
Instead, as I have pointed out several times in this column, rising precious metals prices this time around will have everything to do with collapsing sovereign debts, collapsing governments, and the rising tide of geo-political stress.
Stay tuned and best wishes,
Larry
P.S. Did you miss my NEW report? In my opinion, “7 Commodity Windfalls for 2015-2021” could prove to be the most profitable report you read all year.
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Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader.
Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.
{ 21 comments }
Hi larry ,
You have been saying that gold will rise along with interest rates, and the dollar, where do you see the dollar go, will it go back to 140- 160 on the dollar index, like it was nearly a decade back.
What will it mean for asean currencies , especially the thai baht, sgd, myr, and idr.
Is this a good time to accumulate usd .
I stay in bangkok thailand
Cheers
Hi Larry
I watched your video with Harry Dent and saw that you agree about deflation etc. Harry, however forecasts a much later timeline for golds next bull market starting in 2020 or so. I am a member of your real wealth for many years and have always followed your advice for the most part. What are your thoughts on this and why won’t gold continue to drop with all the other commodities.
Steve
Sorry Larry, would love to receive your new subscription but just can’t afford it.
your RWR will have to do for me. Sorry
Further to Tony’s comment. I too can’t afford his new subscription, if he would “unbundle” it to a yearly basis of say $995. and made gains on his model forecasts then it would make sense to subscribe for years 2, 3, etc assuming gains were made to cover.
Sorry, Donkey Kong (well chosen name!)
You’d be better off just letting your wife hoard your cash. Larry’s been on target for many years with trends and made good money for his subscribers. We don’t expect him to forecast the month and date accurately, expecting him to just give us his best estimate which is almost always better than ours.
Enjoy the Holidays and don’t fret about your losses. If you enjoy good health you’re receiving the best blessing of all.
No he hasn’t not even close.
But agree with your comment on health – merry xmas bro!
Hi Larry, I remember the past RWR, Seabridge Kinross Royal gold Iamgold were your preferred names, can we still trust those names ? thanks
Hey Larry, if your green chart is so predictive, why weren’t you shouting all this back in August when your green line was showing the bottom? Or perhaps it wasn’t then, as some other person commented on your earlier post saying that your chart had changed from an earlier version. At least this one is the same.
It also seems that your conditions for the final bottom aren’t going to be met, so that would mean a final bottom in April, correct?
A. For the move down to qualify as a major, final low in gold’s bear market since 2011, gold must break the former low at $1,074 and test the next major support level at $1,035.
B. If gold holds the prior $1,074 low — or falls through it but does not test major support at the $1,035 level — then odds are that it will NOT be a major, final low and that instead, gold will then rally, but decline again into April 2016 to yet another new, low.
It will be interesting to see what actually comes to pass.
i’m still shorting gold. i won’t go long gold until it breaks out of this downward channel it’s been stuck in for the past couple years. granted, it looks ready to run to the top of the channel, but breaking through to the high side is expecting a lot. even expecting gold to run to the top of the channel right now is expecting a lot. i hope you’re right, larry. i’m ready to take profit on my gold shorts and go long, but i need confirmation first. until then, i’m sticking with my gold shorts.
I love your Real Wealth Report news letter Larry. Good stuff. One question…….I’d like to buy Gold call options so I can take advantage of the leverage that options provide. I’ll most likely be using the Gold ETF (ticker symbol GLD). How far out on the calendar should I go? Would it be best to play the sizable Gold bounce in December and then buy more on the pull back? Or just buy here near the bottom and hold a long term option play? Thanks again!
Since options are a wasting asset, meaning they lose value over time, you don’t want to buy them too long because then you are just paying for time. Having worked with these options before, I would recommend GLD calls with a strike price at the money out to a expiration date of Dec 31 or maybe mid January at the latest. That should allow you to take full advantage of the first leg up in the bull market.
One more thing. I might wait until next week to see what gold does before buying those call options. It might be just a little premature for them
Hi Larry. I think you should take Warren Buffett’s viewpoint on gold. You can look at your gold and it will stare right back at you and do very little that is productive. Better to own a business or a farm or some high quality dividend-paying stocks. These other assets will continue to pay you back both in an income stream and in gains along the way.
Please explain why we should trust this chart when all and I mean ALL your other charts did not follow the future line that was shown?
I was member from oct 2013 to oct 2014 and all these cycle chats proved to be wrong. So questios is how to trust any one of these any more ….Murat
At the least,Larry finally put it all on the line.No more hedging and wiggling out.If gold doesn’t move up by the end of March,you can write this prediction off as another failure.
He’s just using Armstrongs dates.
There’s no nomenclature for the chart’s Y-axis. Why is that?
Larry, have we or have we not hit your expected bottom in gold? If so, then I can see your excitement about buying gold. If not, how can we RWR readers, or for that matter, your Supercycle readers, share your enthusiasm when a lower low is still to come? There really is a dichotomy in what’s being written and said now versus what was written and said before. Your leaving your readers and listeners without a CLEAR understanding of your expected bottom price in gold…Am I thinking right?
Larry, we all would like to see your answers the the questions. thanks
important information in these scary dangerous times
The new service is too speculative and expensive for me. $5000 for 5 years. Gosh.. Particularly since it is a long term commitment with no period to see if it is correct. I unfortunately stayed with US Global Gold and precious Metal that I kept holding as you said in RWR. Then one day when I got the RWR it disappeared . I did not by it in 2003 as you did. I am to this day still stuck with it and big losses so I am very interested in the possibility of gold going up. Will you keep helping the people in RWR or are we just the pool to pull from for new trading services? Also, Do you consider rare earths a China monopoly?
Will something like Lynas go up when commodities go up? Thanks. I always find you fascinating.