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Investors are disappointed with the central bankers. They are worried that the Federal Reserve’s forecast for four rate hikes in 2016 is too aggressive and want to see that number cut in half, given tepid inflation pressure.
Until the Fed relents, or job growth data weakens significantly enough to give it pause, expect investors to stamp their feet. Every month from now on, you will see a spasm of anxiety about whether the U.S. central bank is going to lift again. It’s going to be an ongoing headache, or “Fed-ache” if you will.
Central bankers in Japan are also under the gun after their announcement late last week of supplemental measures to their existing bond-buying program were met with a collective shrug. They included a maturity extension on government bond purchases and a new ETF purchase program. Yawn. Investors wanted more stimulus.
This echoed the tepid response the European Central Bank recently got to a small extension to its bond-buying program and when combined with the Fed tightening this week, poured some cold water on the true faith of global monetary stimulus.
No wonder markets are so volatile.
The Russell 2000 small caps are down nearly 7% this year, almost back to their August low, while pockets of strength in big-tech stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB) are all that is preventing the major market averages from joining pretty much every other asset class in the soup.
iShares Transportation (IYT) gapped down Friday and finished at its low for the year, which is a shocker since trucks, trains and planes should be celebrating lower fuel prices.
Commodities are a fallout zone. Fixed-income is being whomped. About the best thing you can say about iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) is that it has not broken its August-October lows or 2011 lows, as shown above, so perhaps it will bounce on a successful test. Watch that, as it would be a shocker and thus lucrative if it occurs.
Also keep an eye on what’s happening with high-yield corporate bonds, which seems to be the epicenter of this cycle’s speculative excess.
According to Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards, the Fed under chair Janet Yellen “will go down in infamy as deliberately stoking up yet another massive financial bubble. But unlike the start of the last tightening cycle in 2004, this time the corporate bond market is already severely stressed and it may take just a tiny pinprick to burst open the putrid excess.” What a way with words.
The borrowing was largely used to fund stock buybacks, which artificially inflated share prices while leveraging up corporate balance sheets — making them much more sensitive to a slowdown in earnings growth and an increase in credit costs. This is not just bear babble; it’s actually true.
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Edwards senses that the Fed’s gradual rate hikes will slowly tighten the noose. “The party’s over and bond investors, who always tend to be more sober types, realize this and have headed for the exits, whereas equity investors are so intoxicated they haven’t realized that the music has stopped. Equity investors are still gyrating around the dance floor — just as in 1999 and 2007.”
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Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital reports that the action on Dec. 17 and 18 amounted to the first time since 2007 that the S&P 500 has suffered back-to-back 1% losses in the latter half of December. The time before that was in 2000.
Moreover, he reports the market has not suffered back-to-back 1.5% losses in the last half of December since 1937, or any time in December since 1982. Going back to 1928, he notes, back-to-back 1% losses in the last half of December has only happened during bear markets, which is probably an important message.
Even so, the Sundial data shows that buying the second 1% down day and holding until the last day of the year resulted in eight out of eight winners, averaging +3.1%. That’s the positive seasonality that so many are counting on in the last two weeks of the year.
You have to figure some shred of typical seasonality will creep in to drive stocks higher into midweek at least. Historically, 10-day holds starting Dec. 18 are among the top ten-day holds of the calendar, according to data from market technician Ryan Detrick, resulting in a gain of 1.9% on average.
If that does not happen this year, we will know that bears really mean business. Remember that when stocks don’t go up when they have seasonal tailwinds, they tend to perform even worse when the calendar boost fades.
Best wishes,
Jon Markman
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{ 11 comments }
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“…,whereas equity investors are so intoxicated they haven’t realized that the music has stopped.” I might add if I may, that the name of the dance is called “Musical Chairs”.
They’ll keep on spinning the story line until they will have equity investors believing that hiking rates is actually GOOD for the markets….an “indication that underlying fundamentals are getting better.”
I was negative on the markets until I saw the reactions to the recent 0.25 hike. Now I’m positive……”Don’t fight the Fed!” Their “policy” is still VERY easy.
Overall, there are numerous similarities between current times and 1999-2000…cheap oil, gold is down, djia is high, it’s the end of an 8 year dem. Presidency, and so forth…
BUT the difference is that the Fed is NOT trying to remove any “froth” from the markets this time around.
1oz/ silver and 1oz copper bullions/ future ,the writing is on the wall !
ALTERNATIVE PROSPECTS OF EMERGING MARKETS
Another (trading) interpretation for EEM would be: The longer the base (trading plateau), the bigger the breakout. If the U.S. Dollar weakens next year or goes below 90, emerging markets should do well in comparison. The see-saw relationship between the U.S. dollar index, emerging markets, and U.S. Stock Indexes may continue, with each trading places as the lead category or sector from time to time.
So, keeping some money in each may be a better long term strategy than trying to play the volatility in any one class of investments. It usually does not pay to completely withdraw from any stock market, as 85% of the time investors (or traders) will fail to profit from market timing.
I seriously doubt if we’ll see any more than one rate increase in 2016, and even that is questionable. The Fed isn’t exactly tightening, because it refuses to shrink its balance sheet. But it has stopped adding stimulus and put monetary policy into a holding pattern. All the excess reserves are still out there. There’s just a little incentive to keep some parked at the Fed.
Just ending added stimulation was enough to start a big unwind in emerging markets, junk bonds, and commodities that hasn’t ended yet. Equities and real estate are only more recently starting to feel the chill.
The Fed also has severe technical problems planning to raise the Fed funds and overnight rage beyond 1/2% if it doesn’t reduce the level of reserves. Traditionally, controlling the level of reserves was a robust and fairly accurate way to influence short-term interest rates. But reserves are so bloated now, that rates are insensitive to them, and the Fed has to use untested means like interest on excess reserves (IOER) and reverse repurchase (reverse repo, RRP) instead.
There’s a big conflict between keeping the balance sheet where it is and raising rates beyond a certain level. The Fed won’t even consider letting assets mature and roll off. Instead, they plan to continue buying more bonds to replace the maturing ones.
When the Fed starts to directly shrink its balance sheet, or at least let assets roll off, then you’ll know that open and effective tightening has started.
Something else — the Fed’s rate decision this month was about politics, not economics — preserving the Fed’s credibility. If the Fed’s policy were driven by economics, they would have raised rates in 2010, 2011, or 2013 perhaps. The later QE programs wouldn’t have happened. Any Fed rate increase in 2016 will also be driven by politics, and that’s why it has to come early, in March or April probably. (Remember it’s also an election year.) The Fed needs to back up its December decision sooner, not later. Assuming financial markets see more decline and volatility in 2016, further increases will be postponed. Signs of a coming recession will scotch any tightening, especially shrinkage of the balance sheet, which remains the real test of the Fed’s intentions.
Happy holidays and happy new year!
Don’t know if you’ve seen this one. The Fed is playing a nasty double game. According to Yahoo Finance, the Fed is paying banks well above market interest rates to keep the residual QE funds out of the economy. The irony of this beggars description. The Fed and the politicians are constantly complaining that people aren’t spending enough to support the economy, and that inflation is too low. But people can’t spend money they haven’t got. So, what does the Fed do ? They pay the banks above market interest rates to keep all of that QE money OUT of the economy where it might be spent. They are creating the very problem they are bellyaching about. Here is the link:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-will-pay-banks–12-billion-in-2016-165253054.html#
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