For the first time in many years, I was speechless. I didn’t know what to say.
It was Thursday evening, on Thanksgiving. My wife Elisabeth, my son Anthony, plus other family members stood around the dinner table, gazing at me patiently, waiting for me to open my mouth. But I was mute.
My problem was simple: Elisabeth had asked each of us to say a few words about what we’re thankful for. But by the time my turn came around, all the more important things in life — health, happiness, and love — had already been covered by the others.
Little did they realize, during those moments of silence, that a torrent of thoughts was flashing through my mind, most of which I will share with you now …
THE TRUE PESSIMISTS
Some people on Wall Street seem to think I’m a die-hard pessimist — that I have nothing to be thankful for.
They call me a “perma-bear†for “never recommending stocks†or “Chicken Little†for “predicting one disaster after another.â€
Well, I have news for them: I’ve been recommending stocks throughout the bear market and throughout the recent recovery. The main difference is my stocks went up; most of theirs went down and are STILL way down from their peaks.
As to the disasters — the dot.com bust, tech wreck, bankruptcy crisis, accounting scandals, and broker scandals — guess what! They happened. But that’s all water under the bridge. Right now …
LOOK AT WHAT THE “OPTIMISTS†ARE SAYING!
The so-called “optimists†say Fed Chairman Greenspan will continue holding down interest rates, and Congress will continue spending us into prosperity.
They say no one has to worry about — or deal with — the ballooning federal budget deficit, the record trade deficit, or the huge debt burden of millions of consumers.
They think the sinking dollar is “no big deal,†and we should “just let it fall.â€
They don’t seem to give a darn that your interest income has been reduced to a pittance. Nor do they seem to care very much about the havoc inflation can wreck on your retirement.
They tell you “not to worry†about the threat to your Medicare or the danger to your Social Security — let alone to the other retirement benefits that were promised to you.
Worst of all, they seem to think there’s no significant connection between the shaky pillars of our economy and the equally shaky pillars of our society — falling educational standards, deteriorating public health, broken families.
And they say “Martin Weiss is a pessimist�! Give me a break!
WHY I AM REALLY A DIE-HARD OPTIMIST
A few seconds had gone by, and I could smell the Thanksgiving dinner spread out before me on the table, still steaming from the oven. Anthony looked at me expecting a profound — or humorous — statement. But I kept my words to myself and pursued my thoughts in silence …
I am an optimist because I love my country. Yes, I see trouble ahead, but I disagree vehemently with the idea that our society is going down the tubes.
All of the trends we are witnessing today — fiscal irresponsibility, massive debt build-ups, and social malaise — are part of a single, growth-at-any-cost megatrend. But they’re coming to a head. And when they do, we will confront them. We will resolve them. And we will move on to better and safer times.
Admittedly, we are half mad, always pushing ourselves to extremes, to the limits of our technological and economic capacity.
This week, for example, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that the economy spurted forward at a breakneck speed of 8.2% per year — a phenomenon largely driven by government tax cuts and spending.
Sounds great, right? But at the very same time, Moody’s, one of the world’s leading credit rating services, announced that, if our government continues cutting taxes and spending without restraint, the United States of America could lose its triple-a credit rating! That’s not good. Not even close.
THE LIMITS TO OUR GOVERNMENT’S MADNESS
Fact is we are NOT on the right path. But there is a LIMIT to how far we can go down this path, and, sooner or later, we WILL reach that limit. That’s when we will rise to the occasion, make the sacrifices, and move on.
Take the budget deficit and inflation, for example.
In other lands and in previous times, deficits and inflation could run amuck, almost without limitation. Kings or queens — presidents or prime ministers — had almost unlimited power to temporarily inflate their economies. They could print paper money to their heart’s content. They could destroy their currency, drive millions of citizens into abject poverty, invite wars of ruin … even threaten the world.
You’ve probably heard the stories about the German hyperinflation during the Weimar Republic, before Adolph Hitler rose to power. That’s when it took three TRILLION German realmarks to buy just one U.S. dollar. That’s when their paper money was so utterly devalued people needed wheelbarrows to cart their cash around.
Once, a man parked his wheelbarrow of money in front of a store while he shopped. When he returned, he was shocked to discover that it had been stolen. More shocking, however, was the fact that all the money bundles were left behind, stacked neatly on the ground. Even the thief knew that the wheelbarrow had more value than the worthless bank notes.
Plus, last week, I told you about the currency destruction that I personally experienced in Brazil as a young boy — and how, over the years, their money was devalued by a factor of one quadrillion (a thousand trillion) to one.
These are vital lessons from history we must learn, and we seem doomed to learn them the hard way: Our government today is running up its debt at a rapid pace, just like the previous governments of Brazil and pre-Nazi Germany. Our leaders seem willing to sacrifice our strong dollar in order to keep the people happy and stay alive politically, much like the leaders did back then.
But, as I also told you last week, the United States is not Brazil. Nor is it Weimar Germany. Indeed, there is one, all-important, structural difference that separates those episodes of hyperinflation from the United States of today:
THE DEBT MARKET
Unlike Brazil and Weimar Germany, we have a huge, powerful, fully developed debt market. They didn’t.
A debt market is where investors buy and sell government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgages, bank loans, and other debts — much like investors buy and sell stocks.
As in any market, when sellers are more numerous or aggressive, prices go down. When buyers have the upper hand, prices go up.
You probably know this already. But bear with me. You may not be aware of its ultimate implications.
The primary hub of our huge debt market is downtown Manhattan — in the large, cavernous trading rooms of major broker-dealers and banks like Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Credit Suisse First Boston, and a few dozen others.
Plus, there’s a secondary hub — in Chicago. Between Jackson Boulevard and Van Buren Street, the Chicago Board of Trade runs a 32,000-square-foot trading floor where, every day, they buy and sell futures contracts representing billions of dollars in U.S. government debt — Treasury bonds and Treasury notes.
About nine blocks to the north-northwest, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange operates two state-of-the-art trading floors for futures on Eurodollar deposits, Treasury bills, and other debt instruments — also with billions of dollars changing hands each day.
My point is this: The U.S. debt market is not just a small entity that exists on the periphery of our society. It’s embodied in massive, tangible structures of concrete, marble, steel, and glass … housing tens of thousands of staff … and handling far more money than all the world’s stock exchanges put together.
Every day, millions of investors — individuals, companies, cities, states, pension funds, universities, churches, and foreign countries — buy and sell the debts in these huge markets.
And every day, the market value of these debts goes up or down, depending on the supply of new debts being offered … depending on the willingness of investors to buy them … or … contingent on the zeal of investors to get rid of their old ones.
This goes far beyond the realm of money and finance. The debt market — particularly the market for U.S. government bonds — also serves as a de-facto POLITICAL FORUM, a place where U.S. government officials must ultimately answer for their sins.
How? It’s similar to what you saw recently in the stock market.
Remember how wayward CEOs and CFOs faced their day of reckoning? Remember what happened to THEM when major accounting scandals were revealed? Investors dumped their shares like hot potatoes. Almost immediately, the companies either changed their ways or were smashed by the market forces. Heads rolled. Some CEOs were even marched off in handcuffs.
A similar fate awaits wayward officials of the U.S. government — but for them, it will be in the bond market.
Sounds bad, doesn’t it? But actually it’s a very good thing. Because it means there IS a LIMIT to their madness.
You see, in other eras and other places, if you were unfortunate enough to lend your money to a reckless, irresponsible government, your choices were minimal: You’d usually have to wait years until the bond matured. Then, if they paid you back in worthless money, tough luck! Unless you wanted to join a revolution, there was really nothing you could do about it.
Today, thanks to the giant debt market, it’s another story entirely.
FIRST, YOU DON’T HAVE TO WAIT. If you’re angry as all heck about the ballooning federal deficit, the threat of inflation, the sinking dollar, Medicare, Social Security, and anything else for that matter … or … if you’re worried the clowns in Washington are going to stiff you with cheaper money … you don’t have to just sit around and gripe about it. You can sell your bonds and get all or most of your money back at almost any time, almost any day.
SECOND, POLITICS IS NO ISSUE. You don’t have to hire a lobbyist. You don’t have to run down to Washington to bang an angry fist on the desk of some faceless bureaucrat. You don’t even have to wait for the next election. All you have to do is pick up the phone, call your broker, and utter one four-letter word: “Sell!â€
THIRD, THE CENTER OF POWER HAS SHIFTED. Millions of people own bonds today. They own them directly in their IRAs, brokerage accounts, or trust accounts. Or they own them indirectly through a mutual fund, an insurance policy, a pension fund, or even a bank account. Any one of these investors or institutions has the power to utter that same four-letter word. SELL!
This is so, so important. If you get nothing else out of my weekly “Martin on Monday,†you must get this. Because it means that …
THE ULTIMATE POWER TO DECIDE THE FATE OF OUR COUNTRY HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM THE HANDS OF POLITICIANS INTO THE HANDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. THANK GOD!
This ultimate power is more powerful than laws, even more powerful than the now-defunct gold standard which, in the old days, used to restrain how much paper money governments could print. And if you’re thinking the American people have never exercised that power, think again!
THE GREAT BOND MARKET REBELLION OF 1980
The president was up for re-election, just as he is now. The economy was shaky, much as it is today. Except …. instead of a Republican in the White House, we had a Democrat — Jimmy Carter.
Whether Democrat or Republican, however, you would have expected him to do everything in his power to pump up the economy, make the people happy and get himself re-elected, right? You’d think he’d do very much the same kinds of things President Bush is doing now, right?
Indeed, the LAST thing you’d expect from Washington — then or now — is a hard right jab to the underbelly of the economy.
Yet that’s exactly what Carter gave us. He called in Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Volcker slapped Draconian controls on virtually all forms of debt and credit created in America. They imposed stiff controls on credit cards, making it difficult for the average cash-poor American to spend a dime. They slapped controls on bank lending and business borrowing, making it hard for most companies to invest, hire, or buy raw materials. They even slapped controls on money market mutual funds, making it impossible for them to sell any more shares in existing funds.
Within just a few short weeks, the economy was plunging. Gross national product nosedived. And Carter’s chances for re-election were forever doomed. Ronald Reagan became our next president. And the rest is history.
“But why,†you ask? What invisible, mysterious force could have possibly driven a Democratic president … up for re-election just months away … desperate to pursue his vision of the world for another four years … to suddenly and deliberately sabotage an already-shaky economy? Was he possessed by aliens from outer space? Did he go bananas? Not quite.
Here’s how it happened: In 1979, the government was pumping up the economy with easy money and rampant government spending. Inflation was heating up. So, millions of people who had invested in U.S. government bonds were spooked … and angry.
They called their brokers. They uttered that powerful, four-letter word. And the market price of U.S. government bonds — especially long-term bonds — crashed.
It all came to a head in February of 1980. The Soviets had invaded Afghanistan. There were rampant fears of another expensive arms race. Inflation was soaring into double digits. And the bond market crashed again.
In desperation, a delegation of major New York bond dealers — including Merrill Lynch and Salomon Brothers — made a pilgrimage to the White House. A few hours later, a dozen powerful Wall Street men in three-piece suits sat before the president in the Oval Office.
I don’t know exactly what they said, but here’s the gist: “We have a message for you,†they declared to Carter. “The message is from the millions of government bond investors in America and all over the world. You know — the people who have been loaning you the money you desperately need to run this country.â€
“Oh, really?†Carter asked solemnly. “What are they saying?â€
“They’re saying they’re fed up with the government’s reckless spending and with the inflation that’s destroying the value of their bonds. They’re saying they’re not patsies and they won’t sit back passively when they’re paid back with worthless dollars. Their message to you is simple: ‘Either you end the inflation now — RIGHT now — or we’re not lending you any more of our money.’â€
Carter was stunned. “Is it really that bad?â€
“No. It’s worse. Now, these investors aren’t just refusing to buy your new bonds. They’re also SELLING back the OLD bonds they bought previously … dumping ‘em on the market in torrents. That drives their prices down and the interest rates you have to pay through the roof! That’s why your 30-year Treasury bond has plunged to a meager 50 cents on the dollar! That’s why you’re going to have to a whopping 13% interest for long-term money, over 16% for short-term money!â€
Carter still didn’t get it. So the delegation from Wall Street explained further. “Look! Your Treasury bonds are crashing in value. No one’s buying ‘em and everyone’s selling ‘em. We’re having trouble selling even a small lot of $5 million. It’s getting so bad, bond dealers like us are getting ready to quit.â€
“Why should I care?â€
“Because you can’t survive without us. We are the ONLY ones in the world who can sell your bonds to the public … to raise the cash you need. And now WE ARE SHUTTING DOWN. We’ve lost so much money holding inventories of your Treasury bonds we’re running out of capital. We can’t afford to be your dealers any more. We’re going broke!â€
“But what do you want me to do?â€
“You’ve got to stop the value of the dollar from falling, end the inflation — even if that sabotages the recovery.â€
“But what about the election next November?†Carter asked under his breath.
“Forget about next November. Unless you can convince bond investors that you’re going to end this inflation, you won’t be able to borrow the cash you need to meet government payroll next WEEK! The entire government will have to shut down — right now.â€
THE NEXT BOND MARKET REBELLION
Finally, Carter got the message. And that’s when he gave Fed Chairman Volcker the green light to do whatever he needed to squash the inflation — even if that meant squashing the economy too.
Can something like this happen again? You bet it can!
Fast forward two decades and three years — to December 2003.
Once again, government spending is running amuck …
Once again, Wall Street is beginning to worry about the consequences (remember what Moody’s has just announced!) …
Once again, bond investors are getting ready to start selling …
And when they do, GOVERNMENT BOND PRICES WILL CRASH AGAIN!
Ultimately, the president and the Fed Chairman will face the same stark choices that Carter and Volcker did in 1980: Stop the fiscal madness … or … shut down the government!
I have no doubt they will choose the former. I am also very hopeful that it will be just the first of many steps to confront and resolve the Medicare crisis, Social Security crisis, and others that loom in the not-too-distant future.
But alas, our leaders will probably not start to make the right choices until AFTER they’re up against a major, life-threatening crisis. That’s the nature of the beast. They push it to the limit, and then they change their ways only under extreme duress …
* when inflation is already surging toward double digits …
* when the dollar has been beaten down to painfully low levels …
* when foreign investors are dumping their U.S. investments by the boatload …
* when sky-high interest rates are strangling the U.S. economy …
* And when the bond market has been beaten down so dramatically, the market mechanism itself is on the brink of shutting down.
It’s a frightening, maddening scenario. But be thankful that there is a limit to the madness. It WILL end — and for the better.
In the meantime, be sure you’re protected — and positioned to profit. (See my newsletters for specific instructions.)
And hold onto your hat. It’s going to be one heck of a ride.
DINNER AT LAST
A few more seconds had gone by. Elisabeth was waving at me, half smiling, half smirking. “Well, Martin!†she said in a higher pitch, breaking into my thoughts. “Don’t you have ANYTHING to be thankful for? Everyone’s hungry. We want to start eating, and we can’t wait forever!â€
I finally relented. I broke out of my thoughts and said a few words. Then I thought to myself: “But wait till December first. Then you can read all about it in ‘Martin on Monday.’â€
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
Editor, Safe Money Report
Chairman, Weiss Ratings, Inc.
martinonmonday@weissinc.com
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