Just months ago, Wall Streeters and politicians were cheering that a recovery was well underway. Many forecasters were projecting 2011 to be a big year, with growth to be better than 5 percent — the kind of “snap-back” you might expect following a typical recession.
Stocks had doubled from the 2009 crisis-induced lows. Manufacturing had shown signs of recovery. Commodity prices were soaring. Inflation was ticking higher here in the U.S. and abroad. And central banks were all talking about “normalizing” interest rates — i.e. reversing the emergency measures they had rolled out in response to the global financial crisis and recession.
They also admitted that the key fundamentals, like jobs and consumer spending, weren’t confirming the recovery. But they explained it away, saying these components were just lagging.
Even when the devastating disasters hit Japan — a very important piece of the global economy — they managed to dismiss the still open-ended nuclear crisis. And they touted the fabulous growth contribution that would come from rebuilding after the earthquake and tsunami.
What about Europe?
The European monetary union (EMU) had all of its flaws exposed in the global financial crisis. It was obvious that the critical deficit and debt limits set forth to govern the fiscal conformity of euro-zone countries — the rules that made the common currency concept valid — were completely disregarded and unattainable for several members.
The rules behind the common currency are falling apart at the seams. |
As such the borrowing rates for PIGS countries finally began to reflect reality in early 2010, giving a clear signal that the gig was up in Europe. There was no solution for dealing with fiscal recklessness within the EMU. The weak countries couldn’t remain solvent if left to borrow at realistic market rates. Default and contagion were inevitable. And a break-up of the euro, the second most widely held currency in the world, was quite possible.
Global financial and political leaders assured everyone that Europe’s problems were contained, yet hedged themselves by adding “unless there is an exogenous shock in the global economy” to their forecasts.
Unfortunately, based on history, financial crises tend to produce economic shocks with surprising frequency. And given that the situation in Europe has proven to be unsolvable and on an inevitable path toward sovereign debt defaults, an “exogenous shock” happens to be a high probability event.
Yet, the likes of global central bankers, the IMF and Wall Street conveniently chose not to include it in their forecasts — the same forecasts that tend to give investors like you the courage to keep your money passively invested, to invest more and to confidently spend again.
That means following this so-called leadership’s guidance ends up hurting the consumer — the average Joe — again, in a seemingly perpetual cycle.
And on top of that, while they were trying to convince us to be active participants in the recovery, they chose not to eat their own cooking!
The corporations didn’t hire,
The banks didn’t lend,
And the banks and government did nothing to help workout the debilitating housing crisis — one that will continue to saddle consumers, absent any solutions, indefinitely.
So now it’s become increasingly accepted that robust recovery isn’t underway. Rather another global financial crisis is looming! And it’s time to take matters into your own hands — to protect your hard-earned wealth and potentially profit.
The jobs we were promised never arrived. |
For Protection:
Build up Your Cash!
We’re experiencing a balance sheet crisis. And it’s left consumers, companies and governments trying to climb their way out of a hole of debt.
Raising cash can help you avoid exposure to the destructive events likely in store for financial markets.
Plus, while a potential inflationary spiral has received the most attention, another global financial crisis could send the world back into deflation-mode. For instance, if the speculation-led rise in commodities reverses under the weight of another global economic downturn, expect the warnings about inflation to flip.
In a deflationary environment cash is king! |
For Profit:
Go the Short Side
The events unfolding in Europe and the global economy represent a lot of risk. But only if you’re on the wrong side! Positioned correctly, they represent opportunity.
So what is the correct position in this environment? The same as it would be in any investment environment …
You should always be positioned so the expected return more than compensates you for the risk taken.
And in my opinion, the best reward-to-risk profile in this environment is on the short side.
I expect the two markets that led the bounce in global risk appetite from the depths of uncertainty … to be the leaders on the way down. Those markets: The S&P 500 and the euro.
You can look to hedge your portfolio against a loss or make a trade to capitalize on a decline through inverse ETFs.
For example, the ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH) is meant to give you a 1 percent gain for every 1 percent decline in the S&P 500. And the ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) aims to return 2 percent for every 1 percent decline in the value of the euro.
Both of these inverse ETFs can be purchased in your normal brokerage account, just like any stock.
Also, consider my World Currency Trader service. This is where I give members more extensive analysis and precise easy-to-follow instructions on how to use three revolutionary currency instruments to preserve your wealth and profit in any economic environment.
Regards,
Bryan
{ 12 comments }
As usual, you are totally wrong about Europe. You seem to believe in the Joseph Goebbels philosophy:
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.â€
So, what is the truth about the euro-zone?
For one, you seem to be omitting that China is bankrolling Europe. Since the beginning of 2011 China has stopped buying dollars and instead is supporting the euro. A very good reason it will NEVER collapse. China’s refusal to support the dollar means the US economy can never grow. It will continue to sag.
Chinese premier Wen Jiabao visited Germany this past week and assured the Germans of continued support for the euro and the euro-zone.
http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=8412.7120.0.0
Germany is the power behind Europe and Germany is also booming. Unlike the US, Germany actually produces goods and goods that China wants. China sees a future in Europe in that China can trade equally. It can buy goods from Europe and sell what it produces in exchange. It can’t do this with the US, who produces nothing or at least nothing of value for the world. Also, Germany (Europe) and China both produce goods in the metric system, which makes their goods mutually compatible. America’s inch based goods are of no use to the world and thus have limited market appeal.
No matter what government crises may occur, the euro is out of reach of any government manipulation. The euro is secured by the faith of the international business community, a faith no longer held for the dollar.
As previously mentioned, the EU just didn’t hand Greece over money before they were assured it was insured and it was insured via US banks (Credit default swaps). So “if” Greece or any of the so-called PIGS do default, it will be the American banks (which are really bankrupt) would take the biggest hit. So, if you think there is no robust recovery, think of why.
It is because the Chinese benefactors are gone and have seen fit to put their money in a sure thing and that is the euro. With Germany’s economy growing 5 % this year and Germany experiencing full employment can you blame them?
You must be very frustrated wondering why the euro is holding on strong. Wake up and see the reality and not the dream you wish.
Good reasoning!
I had been a believer of Bryan until now. Although I do believe we will see a market downturn before the next round of stimulus/inflation, there is one thing that has totally changed my mind. Take a look at that picture of the stack of fifty dollar bills. You can see that it’s just a stack of paper trimmings, much like a pile of monopoly money or coupons or old newspapers. How the hell can that pile be precious and Kingly???? (meaning that ANY amount of those paper pieces can be printed-off at will by the central bank)
China may be supporting the Euro but it’s not free money. They are purchasing bonds for repayment. When the people of Greece over throw the government they will default on those bonds and the “smart” Chinese will find themselves holding paper more worthless than the US dollar. It’s a race to the bottom for all paper currencies. The Euro looks to be the most likely winner.
It seems that at Weiss Research the sky is always falling. There was a nice short trade on the S&P between May and a week ago but the market appears to have reversed. Timing is everything when using short ETF’s and they should only be used for short term trading. Every market correction is not the start of a bear market however.
If we could be sure that the Federal Reserve would just sit on its hands,then shorting the market might be a good bet.Problem is,judging by past experience,it probably wont.World markets are a debt-ridden catastrophe waiting to happen,so if the Fed does wait too long before acting it just might be too late.If Bernanke realizes that,and acts promptly,shorting the market could be a losing strategy.
“the euro is holding on strong” – compared to what? The US dollar? The exchange rate between euro and ,let’s say, the swiss franc dropped heavily. And, if i’m not mistaken, the value of the goods raised compared to the euro the same rate in which they raised compared to the $.
Greece is virtually bankrupt, no matter what they do, that kind of debt cannot be paid. Ireland coming second, followed closely by Spain,Portugal and Italy.
Germany alone cannot pay the bills for all of EU, in my opinion.
The only problem is : how can we keep our money safe , since the dollar is in the same pit?
Yes, compared to the US dollar. The US dollar so far is still the world’s #1 reserve currency (but not for long), so it still does matter. The fact is despite the attention given to the euro by the “PIGS crises” the euro is not sinking into the ground, but is holding it own.
As I see it, the euro is right where it benefits Germany the most. Too strong and Germany’s exports will suffer, too weak and imported goods, especially energy will be too costly. Just right and you have a balance between the two.
The PIGS crises is a benefit to the EU. US economists keep telling themselves the only way your currency can work is if you can control your interest rates. According to them, the euro can’t work because no country can control its interest rates and thus the euro is either too strong for one and too weak for another country. Well, they are dead wrong. The Germans have found a way.
By exploiting the debt situation in Greece (and the other’s too), they can keep the euro at the right value for them without having to have near zero interest rates like in the US. When the euro starts to climb too much in value, just mention Greece in the news and the euro starts to fall. When the euro drops too much, mention that all is well with Greece for the foreseeable future and the euro stops falling
Germany doesn’t need to pay anyone’s bills, all they need to do is keep the ship afloat and they are doing pretty good at navigating the rough seas.
I don’t mind repeating myself. You will lose money if you follow the bearish sentiment here at W. You are right Daniel, Bryan must be very frustrated to see the euro gaining. But it is his chairman boss who must be livid that the Dow is over 12.400 and only 12% away from its alltime high.
I can imagine his tantrums.
the dow is onnly down about 60% in australian dollars thanks ‘W’. for the advise on staying away from it. The american dollar has lost nearly 100% to us aussies.:)- from 55cents to 1.08cents the other day and climbiing with qe3 looming too.
Might I say about indonesia that they have too muuch malaria over there.
Greece and euro zone has too many prime ministers if two or three countries had one prime minister that would cut border, secretarial, upper house, lower house, treasury, legislative and other legal and government expenses leaving more money for police, health, and other vital services.(cut the fat) and expand. If greece cut border staff pay they will not work…solution.
Thesituation in americaea is, I say panning out well for me in australia we seem to be making money out of mining on private property, selling uranium to whoever wnts it, tax and so forth. Australia is said to be the lucky country though but Greece never had much going for it to start off. Too small really to be called a country these days and its up a riveer really. There are too many people today to have such small boundaries for every body. Maybe east v west euro would be more easily run.
In amrca. uncle sam loaned banks money therefore they have a big stake in what these banks own right. does anyone know what they own? again the to many leaders (too many prime ministers to too many smaller countries) thing could be the problem here. they
Great article, Bryan! It’s amazing how a countertrend move (like last week) restores the bullish sentiment of the retail investor and a return to all kinds of exogenous reasoning to justify their sentiment. Failure to read the charts and the patterns developing within them will always put the investor/trader on the wrong side of the market. But of course this is necessary, so that the market can fool 80% of its participants, as it always does.