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| Martin Weiss hiking with friends in back woods of the Russian Caucasus Mountains. |
One year ago, as the crisis in the Ukraine was dying down, Russia was barely on the radar screen of U.S. news outlets.
If it appeared prominently in more than one daily news cycle per month, it was unusual.
Moreover, few people understood the country, its domestic politics or its foreign policies.
Fast forward to the present, and look how all that has changed! Russia now dominates the U.S. news cycle.
On an average evening, for example, CNN dedicates up to one-half of its broadcast to the Russia collusion investigations, their targets and related “breaking news.”
In this past Friday’s New York Times, two Russia-related stories dominated the front page, “President’s Fury Erodes Rapport with Early Ally,” and “Wary of Mueller, Trump’s Team is Investigating His Investigators.”
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| New York Times front page, Friday, July 21. |
A search for the word “Russia” on the Times website turns up 46 articles and opinion pieces this month alone. They’re replete with incendiary headlines, such as “The Hijacked American Presidency,” “Did Putin Have Trump for Lunch,” “Trump Misleads on Russian Meddling,” “Scions and Scoundrels,” plus many more.
But still, few people understand the country, its politics or its policies.
My grandparents were born in Russia. I’ve studied the history of U.S.-Russian relations since I was in high school. I’ve learned to speak the language. I’ve traveled to remote corners of the country. And we plan to go back again with friends in September to stay at a Russian health spa in Caucasus Mountains.
No, I’m not a career expert on Russia. But to get a stronger handle on this slippery issue, I can lay out — objectively and factually — three different theories on Russia’s relationship with the United States …
Theory #1
Russia as an American Ally for Four Centuries
The United States and Russia have never been direct enemies in war, and they’ve often been allies.
Start with the 18th Century — during the American Revolutionary War.
The Russian Empire under Catherine the Great refused to cut off trade with the American colonies, deliberately violating Britain’s Navigation Acts. Instead, Catherine insisted on trading directly with the colonies, providing goods, funds and supplies needed for their survival during America’s war for independence.
In the next century, after the Crimean War of 1853-1856, Russia feared that the British would seize Russian America (Alaska). To help avoid this outcome, Russia offered to sell the entire territory to the United States. President Andrew Johnson gladly obliged in 1867. And both nations took away critical strategic benefits from the deal.
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A few years earlier, during the American Civil War, Russia was alone among European powers to offer direct support for the Union. The Imperial Russian Navy sent two fleets to the U.S. Although the primary intent was to find a safe haven from a possible war between France and Britain, the fleets stayed in American waters for seven months, providing implicit support for Lincoln and the North.
World War II brought the biggest U.S.-Russian alliance in history: The United States provided the Soviet Union with massive amounts of weapons, ships, aircraft, food and other strategic materials under the U.S. Lend-Lease program, formally known as the “Act to Promote the Defense of the United States,” enacted March 11, 1941. Russian forces, in turn, were critical in the defeat of German forces in the final stages of the war.
In the 21st Century, Russia has helped U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan with logistic support and by allowing Allied forces to pass through its territory. The two countries have supported each other in combating piracy in the waters off the coast of Somalia. They are now cooperating to enforce a cease-fire in Syria negotiated by Trump and Putin on July 7. And the Trump White House has just announced that it has opened up new avenues for cooperation in Syria by ending the covert CIA program to arm anti-Assad rebels. (The U.S. will continue to pursue its far larger and more successful support of mostly Kurdish forces in northern Syria.)
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia have signed a critical deal to avoid air incidents over Syria. And whether you like it or hate it, the U.S. and Russia — along with the U.K., France, China, Germany and the EU — are co-signers in the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” to regulate Iran’s nuclear program.
For the most part, the White House and the Kremlin see eye to eye regarding nuclear disarmament on the Korean Peninsula, nuclear nonproliferation globally, and the global War on Terror.
Theory #2
Russia as a Cold War Adversary
I need not detail the long history of post-World War II geopolitical tensions between Eastern and Western bloc countries called the “Cold” War.
But let’s not forget that, more often than not, it entangled both sides in a long series of deadly proxy wars that were anything but cold: The Chinese Communist Revolution (1945-’49), the Greek Civil War (1946-’49), the Korean War (1950-’53), the Hungarian Revolution (1956), the Suez Crisis (1956), the Berlin Crisis (1961), the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), the Prague Spring (1968), the Vietnam War (1955-’75), and the Soviet-Afghan War (1979) — not to mention scores of revolutions and civil wars in Latin America, Africa and Asia, in which the U.S. and Soviet Union almost invariably supported opposing sides.
Nor need I go into great depth about the worsening stand-off between Russia and the West since Putin’s rise to power:
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| Sergei Magnitsky before his capture in 2008 |
In 2008, Sergei Magnitsky, an outspoken critic of Putin, was arrested and imprisoned in Moscow. He died in prison the following year for an illness that was allegedly neglected by prison authorities.
In 2012, President Obama signed the Magnitsky Act, imposing travel and financial restrictions on human rights abusers in Russia. And just 14 days later, Putin retaliated with the Dima Yakovlev Act, banning U.S. citizens from adopting Russian children. To this day, Putin seems infuriated and obsessed with the matter.
In 2013, just hours before Obama’s State of the Union address, two Russian strategic bombers, reportedly equipped with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, circled the U.S. territory of Guam, as U.S. Air Force F-15s scrambled to intercept them.
In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. This upended decades of East-West relations, set off a series of sanctions and counter-sanctions, and opened a new chapter of conflict with NATO.
Then, in 2015, Russia dove headlong into the Syrian war. Putin ordered Russian aircraft to launch a series of airstrikes against militant groups opposed to the Syrian regime, including some supported by the United States. Soon thereafter, Russian forces established a permanent active presence in Syria, including air, sea and ground forces. It is the first major proxy war between Washington and Moscow since Vietnam.
Overall, from the perspective of this theory, Moscow and Washington are adversaries in a century-old battle for global influence and control.
Theory #3
Russia as America’s Enemy #1
Largely discredited in recent years, this view has suddenly resurfaced since the 2016 presidential election. As I explained here last week in “Russia Phobia: Big dangers and big opportunities,” it’s often driven by Washington paranoia about Russia that’s off the charts. But it still merits careful consideration, especially given Putin’s latest incursions.
Last year, Senator John McCain, who chairs the Armed Services Committee, said, “We should place as much faith in [Putin’s] statements as any other made by a former KGB agent who has plunged his country into tyranny, murdered his political opponents, invaded his neighbors, threatened America’s allies, and attempted to undermine America’s elections.” And on Friday, while recovering from surgery, he criticized President Trump “for playing right into the hands” of Putin by ending the CIA’s covert program to aid Syrian rebels.
Before he left office, Obama also warned against appeasing Putin with “realpolitik,” short-sighted deals that overlook long-standing American foreign policy and core values. So have German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European allies.
In this context, some analysts are drawing parallels with the Allies’ appeasement of Adolf Hitler before World War II:
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| European allies appease Hitler with Munich Agreement. |
In October 1938, Hitler unilaterally incorporated Austria into Germany and annexed Sudetenland in Western Czechoslovakia. So you’d think the United Kingdom and France would look for a way to castigate him. Instead, at a subsequent peace conference in Munich, they signed an agreement that effectively blessed the Sudetenland annexation.
Meanwhile, in Évian, France, the U.S. and the U.K. announced they could not accept any more Jewish refugees, hoping the rising tide of antisemitism in Germany would subside. Four months later came Kristallnacht, the infamous pogrom that smashed Jewish shops, burned synagogues and destroyed properties throughout the country.
Many historians attribute Hitler’s boldness to the Allies’ weakness. In early 1939 Hitler ordered Plan Z, a five-year naval expansion designed to defeat the British Royal Navy. He engineered the creation of a pro-German Slovak Republic, triggering the dissolution of Czechoslovakia.
He occupied the Czech side in a direct violation of the Munich Agreement. He demanded that Lithuania cede its Klaipėda Region and that Poland return the Free City of Danzig to Germany. To thwart German ambitions, the United Kingdom and France offered to guarantee independence for Poland, but it was a futile gesture. On Sept. 1, 1939, Germany invaded Poland, starting World War II in Europe.
This theory places Trump’s recent dealings with Putin in a similar context and holds that they could lead to equally (or more) dangerous outcomes.
Which Russia theory do you subscribe to?
Use our comment section below to give me your response. Then, I will follow up with mine, along with specific recommendations on how to protect yourself and even profit.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
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Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
{ 184 comments }
I spent 15 years in the GULAG and ended up the last political prisoner released in the USSR. Soon after coming to the U.S. (still have my Russian citizenship) I gave a talk at the Dartmouth conference on Russian religious philosophy titled “Whatever Happened to the Evil Empire.” Essentially, it predicted what is happening. Send me your e-m and I will share the text.
In the meantime, just one comment. No terrorist presents an existential threat to the U.S. No other country than Russia. Given the recurrence of Russian public support for its totalitarian, hostile to the West regime Russian Federation cannot be responsibly classified as anything but mortal enemy. Only once denuclearized can it become tolerable.
Send me your text,
Thanks !
Please send your text as you offer.
cec
Please send me the text
Thanks
Russia has never been on my ‘better buddy’ list. Back in the 60s when I was studying international law in London I tried to not get too close to some Soviet scientists who were studying in London. I rejected their invitation to visit Moscow because I thought our government would peg me as a Commie. Then I enlisted in the Marine Corps while the war in Vietnam was still very hot and thousands of young American boys were being killed over there. They were killed in large part by Soviet supplied weapons. How can I trust the Russians? answer: I can’t. I know the Russians are on Trump’s good buddy list because they bailed him out in the 1990’s by flooding him with tons of cash. My allegiance to our country cannot be bought with cash.
Theory #3. Russian agression and cyber incursion into elections threatens democracy globally. The greatest danger Trump poses is to our democratic ideals, and hence the danger of his affinity for Putin.
i am always puzzled to know what Americans mean by their great democratic ideals. Whatever they are they cannot be superimposed on other cultures in other countries especially if they do not identify with them. If American democratic ideals are so great I suspect they will be attractive to other cultures who may voluntarily want to adopt them
Anne Glynn,
Go to war with America. Lose. Get American values and become the 3rd and 5th largest economies
And have an independent Free economy with Democratic institution. The Berlin Wall fell forWestern and democratic values. Germany and Japan.
All you revisionist historians. South Korea would be another Korean slave state.
All Southeast Asia and Greece and Turkey would have gone Communist but for American values and treasure
The people of Vietnam would be free and wealthier if the North lost to the South Vietnamese.
Move to North Korea or China to see what American values are Not??
Proud of American ideals.
Tom Hayn
If governments dare to allow their people freely chose,ibelieve that the majority of the people who live in the China, Cuba, Russia and North Korea, ……definitely chose freedom countries such as USA, UK, EU,…,Germany,…….with no doubt.
Although we can never trust Putin, any comparisons to him with Hitler and Stalin are unwarranted. Russia is part of the world economy, but not an ally except where our interests coincide. His annexation of Crimea as seen from Russia eyes was a takeback of a predominately Russian (80%?) section of the Ukraine. Should he do anything with Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, where the Russian are a significant minority only, then we must defend. The Trump allegations are insane by the Dem party press. Both Obama and Clinton favored Alternative #1 until they were proven otherwise, being largely undone by their own poor attempts at solving the Syria and Ukraine situations.
I think most are aware of the real aggressors in the world today. Most are aware of the hideous bloodshed and mess the US and allies have wrought in the middle east. Putin has been backed into a corner by the vicious and corrupt US. In my view he has done a magnificent job in keeping the peace and yet asserting his utter intelectual domination in the power games. Smart, wily, and tough and sometimes ruthless. He needs to be if he is to take on the loony tunes in the US
I agree wholeheartedly!
Totally agree, no one but the U.S. have created so much world misery, and directly or indirectly killed millions in the name of democracy, so they say. But look below the surface and you will find ulterior motives.
We can not trust Russia ‘s ever ambitious of world power grab. We can not trust us government ever corruption and misused funds in the name of democracy. Just go to nyc housing courts,you ll see the Hell do exist in USA
I agree. Where are the voices of dissent against our actions in the Mid East. Our criticism of Russia is like the kettle calling the pot black.
Theory #3
Having lived and worked with Russian military officers in Egypt/Cairo/Sinai in the ’70s (U.N. auspices), I believe the Russian people admire and envy the USA. If they could ever escape totalitarianism, they would be a great partner to western society.
Russia is an independent country that does not want to be told what to do by the USA, they want to be listened to which the US seems to be oblivious to and just wants to steam roll everything in its path. Where do you get the idea that the Russians “invaded” and annexed Crimea, under extenuating circumstances the people in control held a vote and decided to return to Russia, knowing the post-Soviet history of Ukraine and it’s dealings with the Crimean people and the promised Autonomy I can’t blame them for wanting to distance themselves from Ukraine.
The answer must take into account the person running Russia, not the “country” per se. Putin has grand ambitions not only to re-establish the Soviet empire, but to undermine Western democratic values. He’s another Hitler with more weaponry and shrewdness. So #3!
Your recap of pre-WW2 attitudes vis-Ã -vis the Nazis was an interesting reminder but is not really relevant to present day stand-offs, real or imagined, between Putin and the West (or Rest). The discussion which you are provoking lacks for importance, the inclusion of any assessment, analysis, or account of what political, economic, or territorial ambition is on the Communist agenda. If there have been any significant pronouncements on this in present times, you’ve made no reference or drawn any attention to them. If there are any prominent thinkers today with serious concerns about the Soviets bidding for world domination, I’ve yet to hear from them. What have you heard, Martin?
I agree that Putin should not be made to look like Hitler. One should not compare apples to oranges. The Russian people are fiercely patriotic. Can we still say the same for those Americans that would tear this country apart? And then there are those in the PRC who are wont to ignore the laws regarding legal vs. illegal entry into the USA. No not the PRC you are thinking of – but the People’s Republic of California.
Dr. Weiss,
kudos for your well-founded and well researched article.
On the face of it, each one of your alternatives could be the ultimate and true one and therefore show us the way for the future.
However, it seems that Putin is intent to return Russia the status of world superpower. All his actions during the last may be ten years show this target. What is not clear to me, is why was he like hell-bent to prevent Hillary Clinton from succeeding in the elections to the presidency? Was he so sure that Trump would be more accommodating than Hillary? Or was there effectively colusion between Trump and Putin before the elections? The answers to these questions will probably show you the future course of history. Best wishes, Eric.
I cannot help but recognize the similarity of Donald’s commentary leading up to and after he election, with that of Putin, a textbook fascist if ever there was one. While I agree that strange times make for strange bedfellows, I see no up side to encouraging Putin. In doing so, he’ll not “embrace” America and the west, rather he’ll embrace specific individuals and reward them magnificently for “fealty”. That is not an American ideal. With absolute control of the media and the story, Putin can sell the Russian people whatever he wants. He’ll sell war, peace, economic hardship in the face of sanctions as their “patriotic duty” to bear. Maybe Russia needs a “strong man”, but it needs a good one first. Putin will leave office feet first. Until his tune changes and he can back track his moves in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, he and unfortunately Russia with him needs to be continually challenged by western democratic principles.
I am persuaded that Putin has grand ambitions and is an enemy
of western Democracies. Moreover, according to what I read he is
very popular among Russians.
Russia wants to control as is in their interest. Ukrainian as it is the bread basket for Russia and they want to control the oil of which most in the Middle East. Yes it has been their interest to join the US on certain issues when it was in the best interest. In the past we had MAD with Russia. I was a small piece of that.Trade is another part with the natural gas coming to Europe from Russia. Also varies metal are needed in today’s manufacture comes from Russia. We need a strong updated military which we do not have now.
What about North Korea? They are crazy enough to launch a missile?
I don’t speak or read Russian. I’ve been to Russia free to wander around only once. I don’t understand Brighton Beach as representative of Russians.
However, I am not without bias. I registered for the draft the Tuesday after Labor Day, 1962. Perhaps you remember the next month. Many of my peers found themselves celebrating Thanksgiving in Fort Polk, Louisiana. I escaped by the combo of going to college and working in the electronic warfare business for the next several years. My income came from building things to defend against and kill Russians. A decade later, fellow East Texan Charlie Wilson whipped the Russians in Afghanistan almost by himself.
My observations condense into this: 1) When in St. Petersburg last year, I had a conversation with a local political reporter which was not monitored by minders (I hope). His summation stunned me. “The Russian people don’t like Putin, but they don’t want to see him out of power. They have never had it so good.” 2) The long-term citizen of the US (I am a fifth generation native Texan) understands the individual to be valuable — until the recent “group rights” insanity — more valuable than the greater population. From the Tsars to Stalin to Gorby, the individual is just about as important as each of the bullets that missed you. Glad it turned out that way, but what happened to each of them doesn’t matter much, at least right now. 3) The Russian connection with the outside world has always been acquisitive. If you see the Russians coming, it ain’t to sell you something, or buy something you have at a fair price. We rode a bus from Estonia to St. Petersburg. The road was TWO LANES and there wasn’t much traffic, either. It took about an hour to get through the border checkpoint. During that time, not a single big truck (18 wheeler, in Texas terms) went through the checkpoint in either direction. This is, in my opinion, due almost 100% to the historical lack of personal freedom and small scale entrepreneurship looking to grow.
This is perhaps the subject of another discussion, but the danger is we cede critical decision making to Malfunction Junction, who now has the bit in their teeth and is almost out of control. Romney’s label of “number one geopolitical foe” was the subject of ridicule from the left until it was convenient to raise the specter of The Bear for their own political purposes.
Viewed from here, Russia has three things to worry about. 1) The economy is heading for the toilet unless they figure out some way to add value to what comes out of the ground. It’s a long way from where they are to a car that can compete with a Lexus, but they better get on with the program. 2) The energy dependent kleptocracy is in trouble from LNG. From where I am sitting, 92 miles away is a HUGE LNG facility being built at Sabine Pass which will be a giant problem for Russian gas sales to Europe. 3) Invasions of Russia from the west haven’t done well. From the east? Another story. Xi is feeling his oats…
I like reading your stuff.
Russia acts in its own best interested as we and other countries do and why expect anything else. Putin will deal exactly that way and now we have a President who he respects and probably fears. Putin is a perfect “trust but verify” and nothing less will be in our best interests. Don’t expect him to change but we must deal with him using the same approaches he would use on us.
As to the Russian election intervention it’s not about Russia but the establishment/media hatred of the outsider Trump. Russia had absolutely no influence on why I voted for Trump and those I know feel the same way. We are disgusted with the direction our country was headed and those who were leading it. Washington is a swamp of self interest on both sides of the aisle and it’s time to change all the players. I pray Trump is only the beginning.
Of all the opinions I read I agree with George Burkhart 100 %
Putin will not last forever.
In which case, the key question is just how stable is the Russian system. Or the USsystem for that matter.
Russia, per se, represents no danger, primarily because the people have more in common with other people, than they have difference.
You have done a good job of pointing out three clear narratives on US – Russia relations. Here are some further points:
1 – Russia went through major phases – Tsarist, Soviet, transition and parliamentary. It would be best the separate your analysis into these phases. Still, it seems as if most Russians prefer a strong Tsarist-like leader, including Putin, consistent with the country’s political culture.
2 – Many Russians were proud of the soviet “empire” led by their powerful country – this is associated with their current criticism of the US – their “enemy” when they were strong. Consistent with 1. Putin still has varying influence in ex-soviet countries.
3 – There are many areas of agreement (you cite) and disagreement. Each country sees the other as a threat on several points. Russia ceded Crimea to Ukraine as recently as 1994. When Russia took it back, it made Russians proud of its recurring strength, adding points to Putin popularity. Also, with Russia’s sort of invasion of Eastern Ukraine.
4 – Russia still considers Syria its backyard. It also threatens the Baltic countries. These are side strategies that may be negotiable.
5 – The US have interfered in many elections of developing countries. How can we prevent the reverse in the future and make international law stronger?
6 – Yes. Putin probably strengthened Trump during the campaign. This should be dealt with, now and in the future.
7 – But it should not prevent improved relations negotiated to mutual advantage.
Basically I think Theory 2 is the one, after living through the cold war I have came to the conclusion that Russia was really defending its self against the Western countries especially one that to this day is so opposed to anything communist it is belong believe, am sorry to say it is America.
Why America has this very large chip on its shoulder I do not understand, it would greatly help if it stopped advising the rest of the world to follow its example (advice) but do not think that is in its leaders mind set.
As yet there is no perfect system, but once the politicans stop thinking theirs is the perfect one then perhaps the world can life in peace and harmony.
Russia has 11 time zones. Our efforts to destroy it and its politics will end as all of the other land wars in Asia. Mueller and Comey are members of the light brigade trying to assert the authority of a defunct monarchy. Trump is trying to marginalize the light brigade but seems to be fumbling, which leaves us in very interesting times.
Thomas Parker
Dear Martin,
A interesting article. I visited Russia regularly following the end of the USSR. Over the next 8 years i met many intelligent, capable people. In many respects you are right on all three.
Such is the nature of the continent. Engagement is essential on all levels. Originally from Northern Ireland it is noticeable to see how over time dialogue softens edges even if dark forces still exist.
Suggest you read the work of Dr Gary K. Busch. A friend and a great authority on Russia.
http://www.ocnus.net
His recent article ” My experiences as a Back channel ” is interesting.
Kind regards,
W.Trevor.P. Brown .
Putin is an experienced cunning politician
don’t trust him
He Plays chess we play checkers he is thinking multiple moves ahead of us while we react
Putin did not annex Crimea. I work in Central Europe and witnessed the locals trooping into the voting booths, intent on returning to what they see as the motherland. They wanted no part of the Nazi regime in Kev.
My impression is that Trump’s Russian business interests come first.
i subscribe to Theory #2 as long as Putin remains in power.
I think Putin has out maneuvered, out smarted Trump. Putin is laughing at him and all of us really. Notice I refer to Trump and not President Trump. He may be president but he treats the Presidency as a reality show and he is the star. His reality show has a rating of 38% and falling. Too bad! I thought he had the makings of a great president but turns out he is just a business man and hack actor with an ego out of control . Big business has always had a large hand in our government. They own most of our senators and representatives. Now they have the presidency. Money and profit is king. Nothing else counts. We are at full employment thanks to low wage jobs. That’s how big business likes it. Middle class be damned. Like Catherine The Great said when told the people were starving they had no bread. Her answer, “Let them eat cake”. She lost her head.
Ditto!
I would pick the cold war adversary. Put is not one to back down as this is a sign of weakness. Trump must stand up strong to Putin but in a way that both can save face. I have been in Russia too, doing mission work in 1996-97 and they are a very hospitable people and were so open to the west and to the bible, which was a forbidden book for most of the last century.
I espouse theory #2. If Russia were looking for provocation as a prelude to war, President Trump provided it with the destruction of several of Assad’s Mig Fighters on the ground and the recent downing of a Mig Fighter for encroachment to an area within which were American Forces on the ground. As in most important decisions of this kind, economics is the final arbiter. Russia is not in a position economically to mount what could be a long and protracted military conflict with the United States. So they will continue the less expensive cyber activity and aggravate US Foreign Relations when opportunity is present.
You gave a very informative history lesson. I have drawn my own conclusions long time ago.
The US should continue to work with Russia in areas of mutual interest such as Isis, Syria stabilization,joint space exploration and nuclear disarmament.
Until there is complete regime change in Russia, the US has to keep Russia in check.Also, the people in Russia have to want to adopt a true democcracy
Seems to me that congress is totally intent on making sure the US remains an enemy of Russia. Seems to me that Trump and Putin can communicate on friendly terms and that to me is advantageous. Agreements can be made and adherence can be monitored with appropriate actions when agreements are broken. Falls under “Keep your enemies close”.
I have NO trust in deep state “intelligence” on which congress seems to rely on for its information and attitude towards Russia.
As a member of the “woodwork dwellers”, I trust Putin more than I do the intentions of our intelligence and security organizations. Sad.
Russia is not that hard to figure out. Russia is simply on the side of Russia; exactly as it should be. We are alarmed when they do not align with this country or that country but Russia (as is the US) is looking out for its own “interests”. I think there is plenty of #1 (whenever it suited their interests) as well as some #2 holdover.
Going forward I believe Russia’s “interests” are to align themselves with China and eventually Europe and form a Eurasian trading bloc that freezes out the USD. This is not trying to harm the US but to further their “interests”. It will however, harm US interests indirectly so we seem hell bent on stopping them.
I believe the US should immediately begin an aggressive Pan-American trade pact to cover all of North and South America instead of trying to derail the Eurasian trade pact that is coming whether we like it or not. We need to view North and South American countries as valued partners instead of vassal states. We do not need a political Pan American union but a solid trading bloc with strong economic ties that benefit all.
We should actively seek to trade with Eurasia but we should step back and not interfere with its eventual and inevitable formation.
Are you forgetting that starting about 1760 Prussia, Austria, and Russia divided Poland? That in 1918 Russia/Soviet Union invaded reestablished Poland. The US smuggled weapons and ammunition into Poland in coffins. (Ida was a Tramp (steamer) by Cdr E J Quinby) That Stalin and Hitler redivided Poland? And somehow didn’t our stocks of power plant grade uranium wound up in Russia while Obama shutdown the last enrichment plant. It should be pointed out that the Crimea was traditional Russian Territory and was transferred to the Ukraine by Khruschev in the 1960’s.
A little of all, none of all.
As I see it, they have their agenda, and the US has theirs. Where they coincide, we have room to work together. Where they don’t, we are at odds, and hopefully can co-exist.
As for Putin, “this too shall pass” – eventually.
Rick Kucejko
In the words of Winston Churchill, ” I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” I cannot improve on that.
I’ll go with number one. We have missed many opportunities, and I think we are about to miss another, to benefit from mutual cooperation with Russia. Russiaphobia has always dominated our thinking and blinded us to the real possibilities.
Martin. I like your three part analysis because the answer is actually all three, depending on the time period and the geopolitical situation, and, the situation in Russia. Americans do not understand Putin’s popularity in Russia, as he is seen as having reined in corruption and re-aserted Russia’s role on the world stage after a period of humiliating weakness. Russia is not a natural enemy of the United States; having spent time there, you know that Russians are very family oriented and proud of their country. Now, the Washington fixation on Russia is like nothing I have seen in my lifetime; it is bizarre, and, damaging. It is all about checkmating President Trump. The Democratic party was never as concerned about Russia when it was an actual threat, and a driven, Communist dictatorship. The entire affair and Washington’s reaction to it is simply “off”, bordering on the truly weird.
# 2 Cold War as before
We should be talking not creating barriers between US and Russia. Nothing is solved by absent discourse about world problems. Certainly can agree to disagree. Current estrangement is very dangerous.
Russia is in real financial trouble. The cost of being in Syria, Crimea and near the Ukraine is taking its toll. With the low cost of oil and gas probably getting worse in the short run and then staying relatively low for a few years, Russia needs help. They already reduced military spending 7% this year and will probably reduce it again next year. They have a lot to gain by cooperating with the USA. Unfortunately Putin wants Russia to be a world power even though they are not that strong so this may not happen.
It’s clear to me that the Globalists including those here in the U.S. want Russia to be enemy number one, and if that doesn’t work, China will do. The war industry needs a BIG boogeyman so that they can justify the huge amount of money that flows their way, and it’s also good to keep the brain numbed population in the U.S. fearful so that they can continue to eviscerate our freedoms. JMO
I think option #1 is the most reasonable option. I hope congress does not handcuff the President by limiting his options. We have stuck our noses in to many countries business.
It would appear that Russia was on our side all the way back to the days of the Bolshevik resolution when millions of people were killed in Russia have you ever watched the video series The Greatest Story never told an excellent documentary section 24 says we killed the wrong person they were making reference to Hitler as he had outgrown the need for the bankers that had originally funded him in Germany now that his manufacturing sector was getting so well-established he didn’t need the bankers anymore. Here we are today with the biggest Ponzi banking scheme that should have been ousted by Hitler way back then indeed we did get the wrong guy because the Federal Reserve board now exists big time
It is very dangerous to put Russia in a box, one theory does not give you a complete picture. Russia is complex, & like all nations has doves, hawks, and sheep. Today the hawks have taken over the public stage; but the Russian Grandmas are still alive and well in all areas of the country. If their children start coming home in bodybags the hawks will lose all power once again – remember Afghanistan. Do not discount the Russian Babkas impact on the non-violent breakup of the Soviet Union. The only way Russia will start a bloody war with the West is if it is forced into it by one of its allies. I don’t see that in the cards right now.
It is an oversimplification to imagine Russia playing only one of these roles from here on out. The reality is that Russia holds a lot of territory that is rich with natural resources. It’s got a lot of smart and ambitious people. It has deep and enduring roots in European culture. It views its place in the world as a world power. And its political leaders have a lot clearer view of the way the world works than a lot Americans, including some US Presidents.
Putin has stated that he and his group of close political allies see the primary conflict in the world as one of order vs. disorder. If one were to take him fully at his word then that would mean grabbing the east part of Ukrain is all in service of restoring order there, which is doubtful. That said, there’s a measure of truth to his stated political world view. And with Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Afghanistan all being very nearby neighbors, it’s clear that the threats associated with Islamist fundamentalist groups have a tendency to unite Western groups.
I think your own analysis suggests that Russia has for most of its recorded history viewed itself as a Western nation. Even the communist experiment was a Russian version of an idea fleshed out by a German author and published in England. It did for Russia what winning WWII did for America, making its people feel like part of a world power. It’s a feeling slipping away from Americans and Russians alike. Even if this does not make us allies, it produces shared experience.
I don’t believe Europe can survive long without Russia’s raw material inputs. And I think the US will, in decades to come, be ever more reliant on raw materials from there. Just as Nixon sought a relationship with China to gain an advantage in the US relationship with Russia, I think any wise US leader will sustain a constructive relationship with Russia to gain a small advantage in US relations with China. Our attitudes follow our wallets.
Russian people good, Vlad. Putin bad. Putin and Pres. Trump are cut from the same cloth, but Trump fortunately is balanced by the other branches of our govt. As the English Baron Sir John Acton once said, “Power corrupts…..” It’s all part of the human condition.
I believe Putin & Trump could come to terms and make both countries ‘great again’.
It will be difficult due to the press’ insistence that there was collusion between the two.
Very interesting our article. It should be part of any geopolitical analysis, particularly after the new US presidency took over. Nevertheless any stance should depende of what specific objectives Russia are looking with its political moves. Any expansionary attempt should be curtailed. In this case, It’s Russia the one that wants to revive the old Cold War Empire. She would be asking for and adversarial reaction. Whenever its position has a peace objective, the alliance should be warranted. Finally, depending of the move, if steps are advanced to become the No.1 in the world, discussing the supremacy of the free world, then, there is no chance for other alternative, Russia should be enemy #1. What comes out is that we should be pragmatic.
Tough question. We are still relatively close in time to Cold War and we must be wary of Russia. However, there are three super powers – US, Russia and China. It’s not good to be odd man out. We have more problems with China (North Korea, trade wars, yuan manipulation, South China Sea, steel dumping, Taiwan, intellectual property theft, etc.). Keeping Russia close in terms of communication and possible cooperation, while being very careful, seems appropriate. I guess that puts me in camp one.
I am of the belief that a close alliance with Russia is desirable no matter what the politicians say. It will be needed I believe to counter what will prove to be the real enemy, China.
Russia is doing no more that trying to protect their own sanctity while rightly seeking its place in the world. Spying on our elections? Perhaps -but have we not done similar things in an attempt to understand and ,yes, perhaps influence other countries time and time again throughout our history.
I think rapprochement and a back door connection to the Kremlin – without the eyes of the media or self-serving politicians upon it – is extremely important to our own long term survival as a nation.
Russia has always been a backward country ruled by a strong man (or woman) and it will always be so. It does have a ruling elite and a favored group of citizens, but they come and go at the whim of the current czar. Russia acts only in its self interest, and we need to work to identify those interests. Russia will not start a direct war with the USA as long as it understands that it will lose more than it will gain.
I’m no Russian expert. Not even close. I have one small Russian family of friends who are fine people. They grew up in a much different culture and learned about the USA through selected movies and propaganda and had a distorted view of us, but didn’t hate us. This family is proud of their Russian roots while being pro-USA. They are not political.
The President seems to approach Russia with a cautious optimism and wants to build a relationship where possible which is better than propagandizing hate. In the turmoil of the early 20th century Russia was infected with a leftist regime with their common belief that the ends justifies the means. Reaching a goal quickly is more important than how you get there. This is true of leftist around the world including the USA. This is caused by a hardwired tunnel vision blinding them to the destructiveness of their “means”. This is a much longer subject than can be covered in a few words. Destroying their opponents by death or innuendo is a perfectly acceptable tool as they only see their well intended goal.
Leftist movements have always failed but because of tunnel vision can’t see their mistakes. No amount of logic and reason will convince them of their errors because all they see is their goal, their good intentions. Good intentions can have bad outcomes.
All Russians are not leftist as in any other population. The old guard is dying out and there is evidence that with less ability to control the “message” due to the Internet there are “green shoots” allowing people to see a better way. Still, valid feelings of fear is a strong behavioral tool employed by the left. Also, this doesn’t even touch on the subject of true evil. Some individuals are evil, never mind why.
Leftist will never give up power easily and never go away but there are indications that competitive conversations powered by the Internet may loosen its grip. Trump is to be commended for trying to find whatever ways to cooperate that exist than approaching them as evil adversaries. Not only will we be better off, the Russian people will as well.
We are competitors for world domination but when it suits both side see working together benefits both we can work together. ( the enemy of my enemy is my friend). Political leadership aside the Russian and American people want the same thing. Both love their countries and are proud of them. With the right leadership on both sides we could work together.
The answer is all of them. with usually one being predominant at any particular time depending on what is going on. The outcome will probably depend on the conclusion of the investigations into the Trump family’s pre election dealings with Russia which will eventually play itself out in an exhaustive news cycle that reminds me of the OJ Simpson cycle when the world stopped and there was no other story for about 18 months. The US media seems to get fixated by these topics for about that length of time as a way of filling their airtime with a cheap source of news that avoids the necessity to spend vast sums of money on foreign correspondents finding and reporting on the real news which the liberal elite do not want you to know about anyway. Hopefully Putin understands the western news cycle and preoccupations of congress that appear to be based on it and will avoid a major conflict that will not be in anyone’s interest. Once those news stories have bored everyone to death and resulted in plummeting ratings, the news media and Congress’s focus will switch elsewhere and that should present a recovery opportunity in Russian stocks.
Why does anyone listen to John McCain. The man is a fool who promotes war every chance he gets. Out military misadventures in the last several years have been nothing short of a series of humanitarian disasters promoted by the likes of McCain.
It’s better to cooperate with other countries and have them as allies.
Putin is bloated with success from Obama’s lack of Realpolitik’ and with Trump’s inexperience and bluster. Plus the President’s tenuous position in his own house.
Putin is dangerous and like most KGB agents, a remorseless sociopath who needs to be restrained but also cultivated as an ally against the equally agressive drive of the Chinese.
It is times like these that need a steady and clever hand; where is Henry Kissinger when you need him?
China loves the US/Russia disputes. Beijing must be in ecstasy as long as they don’t actually go to war – which could involve China. And remember, our leaders are anything but innocent. Bush, Obama, and now Trump have taken actions which Russians (and not just Putin) consider to be provocative. Especially those involving American sponsored NATO in eastern Europe. Remember, Ukraine is the traditional road for invading armies heading for Moscow. Overthrowing the pro-Russian leader of Ukraine, and installing a pro-Western leader had to be nearly an act of war in Russian minds. I’m not excusing the Russian takeover of Crimea, and support of pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine, but it is understandable. It was calculated to be a warning to America to back off. Politically inspired Congressional sanctions against Russia (a shyster way to look tough) are a possible step toward war.
Is there a chance that Trump is close to Russia because Americna Banks, after his many bankruptsies, stopped lending to him and he turned to the Russian banks? And perhaps they DO have pictures and video od him from the Miss America Contest in Moscow with Russian hookers?… :(
My take is that Russian interference will be found to be true, Trump will be removed because of it and many in his circle will be prosecuted for that collaberation. And that interference will set American/Russian relations back 20 years and MORE sanctions will be slapped on the Russians and because of that, they will be less and less a world power.
Imagine if the Republicans Cheney/bush had NOT let Exxon do deals with the Russians after Starwars reduced them to financial rubble?…… Could they have not been any stupider? Like their Stock Market Crash and Depression of 2007-2009 wasn’t enough?… :(
Russia as an allie? You have to be kidding!
In your dreams…
I subscribe to theory # 3. It seems to me that Russia is clearly an enemy and would take us out if they could. That`s why we must keep our military strong and resist Russia`s moves against us around the world. They are not to be trusted or as President Reagon said trust but verify.
We all live in the same world , must learn to get along. TRUST BUT VERIFY.
I am afraid you miss. The reality is that Russia is not a nation-state in the truest sense. Even communist Russia was. We are dealing with an organized crime syndicate. Dealing with an autocrat or mafiosa boss is what it is and must be dealt with in that way. Putin has amassed billions illegally and has stowed it in other names and countries. His oligarch mob lieutenants This is his real fear. That we will hunt it down and freeze it. This is why he sees an ally or Stooge in Trump. Together are cut from the same cloth. Both the ultimate Grifters. Glenn
Growing up, my Mom always told me to not trust the Russians.
Therory # 1.
Trump is playing into Puke’s hand. Russia’s hand is weak and they need the sanctions lifted to help their economy. Trump needs to read the art of the deal. Trump is too eager to reduce tensions between the two countries by giving something up before he has anything from Russia. Looks bad and like 1939 appeasement.
Having two filthy rich men spoiled from head to toe both controlling world dominant military power face off is a frightening reality, as you have pointed out. However greed might still be a motivator because it seams there is never enough for them. Economic Hit men to boost their own objectives such as rebuilding after crafting a reason to destroy any country for example most recent US and Iraq. Also remember Syria revolutionaries believed that the US would support their cry for democracy because of the changed manipulating ” Freedom for Iraq” slogan from weapons of mass, why not freedom for Syria. Blood money just might continue to justify and support expenditures on more mass weapons of destruction and military. So conflict between the two powers might still be profitable for both sides, Russia needs oil to remain higher… America needs its currency to be on top.
In an ideal world, I would like to think that the US & Russia could be friends–however, w the ongoing covert ops promulgated by both sides, I’m afraid it’s Cold War business as usual.
If you were to go back beyond 2000 BC you’ll find that all European stocks have origin in the Yamna culture of Indo-European which includes Russians. We have evolved differently but our politics of self-interest has made things worst We have forgotten to look for commonality to find peace.
I believe all three theories take precedence at any given time. Americans and Russian relations fluctuate through all 3 at various times in history depending on their national interests and political leaders view at the time.
Cold war advisory !
I believe our situation with Russia is somewhere between Theory #2 and Theory #3 as long as Putin is in power. I feel Putin can “out smart” the present U.S. politicians.
Dr. Weiss:
I am a Mexican citizen, first of all thank you for your editorials, from my perspective they are objective and well documented.
Like you I have been to Russia. It is a very impresive (huge country) with vast natural resources. It´s people sufered for almost all of the 20th Century of ill conceived socialist policies and tyrans. The majority is in the poverty line, only a few have made huge fortunes (oligarchs), these is the Russian deep state. I believe they will use every mean in their power to mantain the status quo, including corrupting US leaders. From my perspective Russia is run by very dangerous white collar cartel. They will continue anexing territories, shooting down commercial airplanes and creating caos in other countries for their benefit, until somebody or some country stands firmily on their way, and that country only can be the
good old USA.
For this reason I believe Russia is Americas`s #1 Enemy, I admire and respect Senator J. McCain, you (the US people) should listen to him and act accordingly.
All the best
J d P
I would fall midway between #1 and #2. The Hitler-Putin comparison rests on their underlying motivation. Hitler was indeed among the worst of the worst, as demonstrated by his post-Munich conduct. Had he died soon after the Munich pact, before annexing the remainder of Czechoslovakia, he probably would have been remembered as an equal of von Bismarck as a German leader. What he had done up to that point was to reoccupy traditionally German territory that had been stripped by the Versailles treaty, and to annex territory in which Germans overwhelmingly composed the population.
Putin has reclaimed the Crimea, (and access to the Black Sea,) but which was a part of Russia before Krushchev gave it to Ukraine in the 1950’s. He is also strugglling to maintain a supportive regime in Syria, (which gives their fleet a refueling base in the Mediterranean), which, while abhorrent, is certainly preferable to a regime controlled by jihadis. One can quibble over his behind-the-scenes push to get eastern Ukraine into Russia. It’s equivalent to the Sudetenland occupation, as the majority of the people prefer to be in Russia. Of course, the main reason he supports it is to get land access to Crimea. But why is this so vital, when there’s no push (at least not yet) to gain land access to the Baltic port of Kanliningrad through Latvia and/or Lithuania?
It’s what Putin does beyond this point that will determine his motivation. If he goes no further, I would place him lower on the enemies list than the DPRK (North Korea), and perhaps at the same level as the People’s Republic of China, the latter pushing expansion into the South China Sea and expanding their military and showing little effort to rein in the DPRK, but at an equal level only because they have more nuclear warheads. Should he continue expansion and aggressive policies into new areas, I would then bump him up to #3, again only ahead of the DPRK because he has more warheads, although Kim Jong-un seems more likely to actually use the few he has.
Trump is no Obama…or “W”, or Clinton. Trump is a master negotiator and deal-maker. And Trump is NOT going to make a deal that is detrimental to the U.S. If there is anything our country should have learned by now is that Trump is doing everything in the U.S.’s best interest. So much so, that in 6 months, OPEC is basically irrelevant as the U.S. is now in the driver’s seat of the global energy market.
Unfortunately, for McCain, he’s played the “hero card” for waaaaaaaaaay too long. Yes, what he did for his country and fellow soldiers in Viet Nam was very heroic. But the past decade has truly revealed McCain’s true allegiance to the “swamp”, and the lobbyists, the global elites, and other anti-U.S. interests that seek to minimize her. And, keep us in ‘perpetual war’ for the benefit of the few at the top at the expense of the tax payers in the middle and at the bottom.
It would be great if Theory #1 implied that history is on the side of Russia being our “default” ally. As long as the Russian people are unable or unwilling to remove the likes of Putin from power, such will never be the case.
Theory #3 assumes conditions, circumstances, and world leaders perspectives are akin to the 1930s. They are not, and those of John McCain’s ilk would serve us well if they removed themselves from positions of power and influence.
As distasteful as Theory #2 is, it seems for the foreseeable future that the USA and Russia will continue to be at odds, fighting proxy wars but making deals when mutual economic purposes are served.
I do believe that President Trump has a better group of advisers than we have had in a decade when it comes to dealing with Russia, but will he take their advice?
I think #1 is the most probable. There is no reason for the United States and Russia to fight each other. Yes, Russia uses its size and power to influence what goes on in the world. But, the USA does this in spades. As for use of political assassinations and meddling in other peoples elections, the USA does not have clean hands there either.
Russia is still going through a period of transition in political structure as a nation. Just over 100 years ago they were an extreme right wing autocracy under the czars. That was followed by extreme left wing control. I have serious doubts that WW2 would have had a successful outcome for the western nations if communist Russia hadn’t made tremendous sacrifices.
With the fall of the communist state Russia moved to another somewhat autocratic regime, now controlled by the ex-KGB Mr Putin. However, I think there is hope that when Mr Putin is replaced, a more pluralistic government will replace him. It is going to take a whole new generation of people who were not raised under the Soviet system.
I think the real adversary is China.
#1, ally included new info, at least to me. Thank you for that. History is what it is.
#2, cold war included sabre rattling & misinformation. Instead of on verge of attacking the U.S., they were very concerned about us attacking them. Wiser people helped bring to a close… or at least defuse it.
#3 enemy no 1 sadly stoked by progressive liberals as tool to delegitimize Trump. Too bad, since Trump orherwise likely to defuse tensions. International relations have always been ‘trust, but verify’. Laughable that Obama warned against appeasement when caught on hot Mike saying he’Lloyd have more flexibility after ekection. BHO did everything possible to sabotage Trump & we’ll all pay the price. 2016 election was rejection of BHO & the left can’take deal. More bumps ahead.
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis, Dr. Weiss. I immigrated from Russia in 1992. I was born in St. Petersburg there and can tell you with being 100% sure that Russians do not want neither confrontation nor war with USA or anybody else in the world. None of the other country in the world suffered as much as Soviet Union during world war II. If not an ally I would definitely call Russia a business partner and nothing else. All Washington and mainstream media paranoia only plays in the hands of military industrial complex and power elites. Ordinary American people like you and me can only lose from it.
I am really hardly understanding the world today. During the U.R.S.S. period, obviously Russian people have moved into frontier-areas of countries forming the communist group of nations. When U.R.S.S. dismantled, it was also obvious that areas occupied by a majority of Russian people would eventually appreciate to live under the Federation of Russia. To me , It was not a surprise. In addition, How could Russia abandon one of its most precious naval base in Crimea? The Crimea people, majority of Russian, voted to be linked to Federation of Russia because they are Russian.
U.S.A. and Russia spend lot of money and resources to develop nuclear sophisticated weapons to protect their territory against a potential invasion from the other party. I do not understand that. Do you really believe that U.S.A. has a program of invasion of Russia? Do you really believe that Russia has a program of invasion of U.S.A.? Particularly, next having adopting a capitalistic way of developing their economy?
The reality is that the war industry is the far-away-most money making industry in any country around the globe. It creates lot of jobs, destroying everything under its path that require reconstruction through lot of investments, eliminate thousands of precious human lives, and make growing fast the economy. An economy of peace, according to the past stories, is quite impossible for human being. We have economies of war, and promoters of war work hard to make sure igniting and prolonging conflicts of any kind, for any reasons, around the world. Just a sample: look at how much money and resources of all types has directed to support Iran’s allies. Hezbollah, thousands of persons live under the Iranian people’s work.
We will not get a real peaceful program as long as parties will not work to look for the TRUTH for everything. TRUTH is the key for appeasing tensions and install a real process of peace among all parties. Why? Because investigating aspects of truth for everything, drive our mind to understand that in fact, nobody possesses the TRUTH. Hence, if nobody has the truth, that means, nobody has the right or must adopt the attitude of imposing his point of view to anybody else.
But, based on past experiences of human being, all three theories are acceptable. Russia and U.S.A. will be ALLY, COLD FRIENDS, or ENEMIES depending on the circumstances, i.e., what theory will be the most pay-off for their own interests.
___________________
Putin is a protagonist for Russian nationalism and irredentist as well as a kleptocrat. However, he represents no ideology, such as communism under the Soviet Union. Therefore, it is easier to confront and negotiate with him and his cronies, given a sound understanding of their characters and influence, because they have more personal self-interests and are more pragmatic. Russia also has difficulty projecting its military economic and cultural power beyond bordering countries. Putin and Russia do not represent a long-term threat at this time. Russia is relatively weak economically, is actually declining in population and the people do not have a general desire for aggressive nationalism.
China is the greatest threat long-term: growing expansionistic economic and military power, aggressive nationalism, a significant degree of cultural and ideological influence, a long-term strategic plan to increase worldwide influence directly and indirectly, and general support of the people to accomplish leadership goals.
Iran is also a short to long-term threat because of apocalyptic Islamist ideology and desire to gain regional domination and world influence from having deliverable nuclear weapons, and project military power through a large army and terrorist..
North Korea is a threat simply because of extreme behavior, often unrealistic rhetoric and actions, and the absolute contempt for any moral and legal restraint externally or internally. The weakness of Western responses, America in particular, and their totalitarianism and leadership culture sends the wrong message to
all other countries of the world.
Martin, as you described in your article, our relationship with Russia is not simple. Depending on the day, Russia can be a friend or an enemy. I subscribe to the theory of “Hold your friends close, hold your enemies closer.” Winston Churchill described Russia as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside of an enigma.” So, I don’t think a single theory can describe our relationship with Russia.
Martin,
We need Russia more as an ally than a foe. The worlds two largest nuclear powers can’t afford to be at odds. It seems to me that President Trump has been trying to lay the groundwork for detente even before the election. However, The press and congress have done nothing to help and everything to prevent establishing a better working relationship. I don’t think that this is in our best interest.
John Martin
I think #3 is the most realistic theory, based on all the facts. Russia is screwing with US in so many ways, Trump would have to be blind not to know it. The Kremlin midgets only understand force and will only back off under the threat of it.
I believe there are two factors omitted. One is that many of the Asian wars, including Vietnam and Korea were China, not Russia, and Russia and China should not be considered allies or on the same side.
Thee other is that we are selective in which countries we go after human rights abuses, We do not go after human rights abuses in Guatemala and Honduras,
I think Russia is now more free than America. Most of the hype is just a smoke screen to divert us from what is happening at home. Europe is in serious danger of being overrun with hostile migrants. Our President is finding the swamp deeper than anyone believed. Our elected officials don’t listen to us. Them make promises they never intend to keep. The media has gone from embroidering the truth to outright lies. I could go on but you get the picture.
Making Russia enemy number 1 is utterly idiotic. But the lack of intelligence, purposely, governing the usa … is leading to our ultimate demise. A nation that neglects it’s people and instead serves only war profiteers, despicable allies, and wall st criminals.
I think Putin is to be resisted. Some other leader in Russia may return the relationship to that of Catherine the Great, but NOT Putin. He’s run over many of those opposing him in Russia and he wants to return Russia to the power and status it had when it was part of the USSR. He should be resisted.
I attended Army Language School, worked on Soviet area in Defense Intelligence Agency, admire and respect the great Russian people, especially for their sacrifice and courage in WWII. I think McCain and Graham should either shut up or submit a Declaration or War against Russia. Putin pursues national interests as he sees them. He is neither friend nor implacable enemy. Russia has always needed an enemy to support internal cohesion. Russia is not part of Western Civilization, as m any suppose. If you are well acquainted with Russia and Russians you soon realize how entirely different in outlook, tradition and temperament they are from us, although true liking and partnership are certainly possible. I figure that in the long run Russia will turn toward the West once China does what historically it already intends. Recover all of now depopulated Siberia east of the Yenesei River, historically Chinese territory seized by the Tsar’s in the 18th Century during the period of China’s weakness (Chinese maps used internally already show Siberia as Chinese, not Russian). All the resources China needs are in Siberia, not overpopulated SE Asia. Chinese already ‘invade’ Siberia with contracts for timber and other resources. Once a real threat emerges, Russia will come around.
Ever since Russia provided assistance to the US colonies, Russia’s resources & the populations covered Russia-Proper/The Caucusus/Siberia/Central Asia/parts of Baltic countries, until 2000.
During this same period China was a weak neighbour.
Today, a significant slice of those resources & peoples are no longer part of Russia, or the links are fragile. Consequently, in any “hot” war it cannot afford to suffer millions of casualties as in the past. So trading lives for ground in an advance westwards is less credible.
The ex-Soviet Pact European countries are all distrusting anything that Putin (the new “Post-Romanov” Czar) says and are developing the defense capability that they can.
The resources & infrastructure are under-developed since Russian companies are incapable of developing resource management in an environment little different than Canada or Alaska.
The average life expectancy of the remains of Russia is now worse than some sub-saharan countries!!…..Vodka, Vodka…and the population is shrinking
In summary, Russia can bluster & bluff but is there any credibility of strength either militarily or economically? It can cause trouble & irritation but relatively speaking it is not only weaker than Soviet days but even Czarist Days since Peter the Great
Whether Putin stays or goes, does it matter?
And China could walk in and take eastern Siberia sometime in next 50 years
A few years ago I was the beneficiary of several lectures and personal contact with Ludmilla Selezneva during a cruise from St Petersburg to Moscow in 2005. I was shocked to learn that the Russian people were indoctrinated into a hatred and distrust of the West. They had no idea of the overall sympathy that existed during WW11. I well remember my mother in UK telling me, as a child, to eat my crusts and “remember the starving Russians.” BTW she was conservative politically.
Sadly this perception still exists along with the USA strong distrust of Russia. As long as this exists it’s hard to see an improvement in relations. There is a thin chance that cooperation in the Middle East might help improve perceptions.
Both China and Russia have instigated controversial or illegal territorial expansions, which leads me to believe that they would unite against the USA, or this may have come about as a result of President Obama’s foreign policies. What he said and what he did were very different. Its possible that president Trump is acting under pressure because of the assault from the Democratic Party and actually wants to foster better relations with Russia. Due to the openness of the West and their long experience, the Russians have a far superior intelligence service to help guide their actions, than Europe, UK and USA put together. Reluctantly I go for option two. I should mention that I am not skilled or deeply interested in politics I just read and travel a lot.
I hope for #1, believe #3 is without any support from anyone (total destruction), and #2 is the best we can expect at this time.
I think that the US and Russia can be friends and should be friends. That friendship might be needed in the future to help counterbalance the economic power of a growing China.
I tend to agree with theory #1. I’m not too sure that Putin can be completely trusted, but It bothers him that NATO countries keep creeping closer to Russia, and he probably doesn’t trust us. It’s a shame that two powerful nations can’t work together to help resolve many of the problems confronting all nations. The specter of the communist state still exists, so perhaps if that ever disappears, things will be better. The Russian people, even though they seem to love Putin, deserve better.
I don’t like any of the three, but my choice would be somewhere between 1 and 2. The problem with 2 has been the impunity of the CIA in fomenting conflict all over the world, which all too often leads to vaccums, power grabs endless conflict..
The trouble is rooted in foreign policy oriented to busiiness domination (imperialism).y. .
Russia often operates as an adversary. Putin pursues a similar path.
Because of the Cold War, we now occupy bases throughout the world, which has fed the MIIitary-Industrial-Etc Complex. How would our economy cope with withdrawal? ..
So, we send weaponized missiles into (non-nuclear) countries, targeting ” supposed” enemies but sloppily killing bystanders There are no troops engaged or body bags , so the public does not recoil.
You need to present another option.
I would hope that the US and Russia could be peaceful partners. Many have thought that we should not have interfered in Syria (I am one of them). Bad guys fighting bad guys, it seems. There is Assad, those who would over-throw him, and there is Isis, the world’s enemy. Slam dunk to me who we should support.
RUSIA IS NOT THE ENEMY OF THE USA
THE ENEMY OF THE USA ARE INTEREST GROUPS IN THE USA TRYING TO HARM THE USA, BY MISLEADING THE COUNTRY.
IT WAS THE CIA WITH KILLING THE KENNEDY BROTHERS BEFORE
NOW IT APPEARS TO BE THE DEMOCRAT PARTY
I CANVASE ON THIS LAST ELECTION FOR BOTH PARTIES AND I WAS SHOCK TO SEE SO MUCH CINISYM FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY MEAN WHILE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DID NOT BEHAVE LIKE THAT.
PUTIN IS TRYING TO GET CLOSER TO THE USA SINCE IT KNOWS THIS ASSOCIATION IS NEED IT. DEMOCRATS AND SOME REPUBLICANS WILL TRY TO HARM THAT RELATION, HURTING THE USA AT THE END.
IT DOES NOT MAKE ANY LOGICAL SENSE THAT THE COUNTRY AND THE NEWS ARE TRYING TO MAKE ASSAD WITH SYRIA PICTURE LIKE THE BAD GUY, WHEN IT MAY BE ACTIONS OF THE USA ITSELF HARMING THOSE COUNTRIES AND THEIR PEOPLE.
ASSAD LOVES THE WESTERN WORLD AND SYSTEM, HIS WIFE IS FROM ENGLAND, HE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ILLOGICAL, YER THE KNEWS KEEP ON TRYING TO DEPICT HIM AS THE BAD GUY WHO KILLS ITS OWN PEOPLE WITH THE TOXIC GAS. THE ONES DOING THOSE KILLINGS ARE THE IRRADICALS TRYING TO CREATE CONFUSSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THESE IRRADICALS WHO DO NOT CARE ABOUT ANYTHING SINCE THEY LOST THEIR MARBELS OF DECENSY AND HUMANITY, AND TRYING TO GET POWER, WITH THE SAME ARMS GIVEN BY THE USA.
IN THE MEAN TIME ARMS KEEP ON BEING PRODUCED IN THE STATES WHICH IS A PRETTY GOOD BUSINESS FOR THAT DEFENSE PART OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN IF IN THE PROCESS KILLS WONDERFUL HUMAN BEING ALL OVER THE WORLD.
AND SINCE MONEYS IS THE GOAL PEOPLE GET INFLUENCE BY THE ACTIONS OF MONEY SINCE THEY GET PIECES OF THIS PAPER IN EXCHANGE.
IF I AM WRONG IT WOULD BE WONDERFUL, IF I AM NOT MY APOLOGIES FOR SHOWING IT, BUT THAT IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE.
THE POLICE OF THE USA TO HAVE TO WARS PER PRESIDENCY MAY BE TAKING USA TO A GLOBAL WAR, BUT THE GLOBAL WAR WOULD BE V. KOREA OR COUNTRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
ANYONE PARTICIPATING OF A WORLD WAR WOULD SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES
IF IN THE 1990’S THERE WERE TWO WORLD WARS THEN IN THE 2000 IS BEGINING TO BE TIME TO HAVE A MAYOR ONE SINCE THAT WILL ALSO TAKE CARE OF KILLING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE NEED IT TO BE KILL TO KEEP BENING ABLE TO FEED ALL IN EARTH.
ALL OF THIS AT THE SAME TIME THAT EARTH IS BEING POLLUTED BY MILLIONS OF PLASTIC ALL OVER THE WORLD, AS WELL AS BY THE CONTAMINATION IN INDIA AND CHINA, AND OTHER COUNTRIES NOT CONTROLLING POLLUTION.
GOD CREATED EARTH TO BE BALANCED THUS IT WILL KEEP ON BALANCING ITSELF TO KEEP ON BEING BEAUTIFUL BY PUNISHING ITS IGNORANT PEOPLE.
RUSIA DOES COMIT SOME CRAZY CRIMES BUT OVERALL THEY ARE PEOPLE THAT JUST WANT TO ENJOY A GOOD LIFE AND ARE FIGHTING CONSISTENTLY FOR THEIR RIGHTS. OTHERS DO NOT LIKE THAT, BUT THEY ARE TRYING TO SURVIVE JUST LIKE EVERY ONE OF US.
When the talking stops–the bombs drop. Russia, unlike the US, is a defensive
country. US NATO aggression has taken place on numerous fronts. When “shock
and awe” pauses, when it fails as it has since the Korean war, we will see a retaliation which will end the Northern Hemisphere as we know it. Fortunately for most of us, the world’s
McCain psychopaths all have deep bunkers and will survive, but we won’t.
I am concerned that the US congress, as a whole, and the media are all too ready to stir the adversarial pot. While this makes good fodder for politics and stories it is not helpful for stability or real economic growth. The growth experienced by the development of war goods or increased commodity prices actually reduces the wellbeing of the country as a whole. As a foreign policy the saber rattling is anti-productive. We should keep our defensive ability strong and at the same time try to remain open to cooperation when it is beneficial to the US and our allies. All this said, I believe it is in the interest of the US to try to work with Russia. They can be as formidable an ally as an adversary. It appears President Trump is trying to work in this direction. It also appears Putin is trying to do the same.
Having read the three theories, my feeling is theory #2 the most likely based on what I read in the newspapers in the Netherlands.
Btw, LAND lease should be LEND lease ?
Theory #2 Russia as a Cold War Adversary. While not overtly aggressive, I don’t think Russia will pass up any opportunity to undermine US interests.
Put me in group one. My reasons:
a) Triangulation USA versus China Russia, USA is the loser.
b) Anti Russia attitude appears to be coming from democrats to cover their losing the White House and congress seats. Time they looked in a mirror and said we had a poor candidate who ran a lousy campaign. If they don’t, they will keep om losing.
c) US made an agreement with old USSR that if the USSR pulled out of eastern Europe peacefully, the west would allow a buffer zone of eastern European countries. Russia lived up to the commitment, its time for the USA and NATO to keep their word. I know some Russians and their history is one of relying on distance for security
d) There is a fortune to be made by European and USA/Canada in integrating Russia into the western economic system. Think prairie agricultural equipment, fracking, telecommunications for examples
By meddling in our 2016 election, Russia is a major enemy of the US now, right behind N. Korea. Cybersecurity now and in the future is my major concern. We will never know the precise number of votes Trump or 3rd parties received based on the Russian disinformation campaign, but where the votes were close, as in Michigan, turning undecided voters away from Hillary Clinton was an impact. The damage Trump is doing to our global position in the world and with our Allies is major, beginning with backing out of the TPP which benefitted China and culminating in the recent G-20 meeting where we have no notes of Trump “promises” to Putin. Russia would love for us to be bogged down in an all out war with N. Korea. Putin will take advantage of our novice/not so smart/narcissistic President. I am for more sanctions on Russia. Keep the spy houses in NJ and outside Washington D.C. from going back to Russia.
Why can’t we just learn to live together for the greater good of all people. Probably too late for this happening. Without any desire to negotiate fairly, and we now see it in our own US government, in what direction are we heading. There seems to be much more hate and greed in our world today that really needs more love and understanding. This cannot end well.
Another theory is that Trump who has spent half his life teetering on the brink of bankruptcy was in trouble and needed another bail out a few years ago. The only source of funds were the Russians who, at the time, were still swimming in $140/bbl oil.
So ever since election day he has been acting like a man on the make, doubling the fees at Mar Lago and using a 2020 re-election bid to pump cash flow into his personal properties while using the office he holds like an ATM machine for self promotion and equity enhancement.
If any of this theory is correct, one has to wonder whether the Russians got all they paid for, how tight the strings are being pulled, and if he can pay them off before it is too late.
Also, whether he can keep a lid on his tax returns and shut down or limit the current investigations before any more serious damage is done.
I believe Trump and Russia are helping each other in what, I don’t have any idea. Russia as a country isn’t bad just its leaders. I’m seventy four years old and believe Trump is a danger to our country. Take the blinders off thinking that he will make everyone rich like him, and see the truth. Trump is mentally ill not too mention immoral.
Russia does not fall under any of the three theories. Because of the poor state of the Russian economy Putin has to blame someone other than himself or his popularity falls. He must continue to pretend an adversarial relationship with the US to survive politically. The US is not Russia’s real enemy, but a pretend one in the Russian press and Vladimir Putin will continue to thumb his nose at the US no matter what. There is no real hostility, just political expediency.
No one seems to mention that we are flying around on the space station together and I haven’t heard of anyone being killed . also I never here who the people of the Crimea want to be their Government ,thanks to Stalin I believe the majority are Russian and speak Russian ????????????
I’d be really surprised if Russia had the means and the will to develop a policy a la German before WWII. Furthermore, our Pentagon needs a credible enemy to justify its budget. That will never stop.
I would lean towards Number 2.
CNN long ago lost it’s credibility.
By the laws being made by the federal government and decisions being made by most courts it seems as if the country is being run by the KGB which went underground after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Our Constitution has been systematically destroyed over the last 100 years by the progressive movement which professes much of Marxist ideology-such as government control of healthcare, banking, transportation, education, and destruction of our nations morality.
Even so-never trust Russia.
I subscribe to the first essentially with these considerations. Syria is about a gas pipeline to Russia in opposition to Saudi/US interests, Crimea/Ukraine was Russian territory for centuries (Kiev was Russia’s capital in the 12th century) so this is an internal matter. The military industrial complex in the US supported by lobbyists such as McCain need wars or threats of them to support their industry. I’m an Australian from Russian heritage, our family fled from the Communists in the 1920s, it pains me to see Russia being painted as a villain for pecuniary interests.
It is impossible to overlook that Putin (Russia) interfered with our democracy, trying to undermine our election. We cannot trust Putin to stop doing these things. President Trump is making Putin’s goals easier. If anyone had doubts about who Russia and Putin are today, these attempts to undermine our system and processes should be crystal clear. A President who cannot accept this is seriously deluded or is being “pushed” to ignore the obvious for his personal reasons. How this affects investments is still still unclear to me. I do not see how it is a good thing, however. Most people that I know are having great anxiety about the politics of today. I have personally never felt such angst about America’s future.
Russia as an American Ally. The USSR was a “fake Russia” created by international intervention in Russian politics. The “hate Russia” campaign is an insane attempt by foreign interests to restart the cold war and divide and conquer the West. The mind that controls the Universe will thwart their plans.
#3. I totally agree with John McCain, The Russians have no business manipulating our elections and interfering with our democratic progress. Mr. Trump refuses to acknowledge clear evidence of this given to him by the FBI and CIA. I believe that Russia, because of its involvement in Syria and our involvement in our election process, has shown that it is an enemy that needs careful watching. Previously, I would have agreed with theory #2, but we have a President who appears to have his head in the sand regarding Russian interference in our political process, and Russia is taking advantage of the U.S. because of this.
mjt484:
It makes no difference to me which of the three scenarios is at work. The core of the problem is that we have a president who continues to obfuscate his relationship with Russia and with Putin. The stories of which one of Trump’s inner circle is revolved with who in Russia changes daily (maybe hourly). For someone who is draining the swamp the truth about his Russian involvement is hard to find. If the problem were only one of “fake news” then why the huge legal team? Fake news can’t exist if the truth is well known.
The Russia is our #1 enemy commentary is absurd. China is our #1 enemy and they are financially destroying our country right under our noses. Russia and U.S need to work together to keep China in check.
At the end of the day, the biggest thing accomplished through war had been the enrichment of the MIC and the dangerous debt levels that threaten our country.
We need to make more allies, less enemies, and stay the hell out of other countries wars. Our focus should be here at home.
The Russians will always be Russians. Friends when it benefits them. Adversaries when it doesn’t.
Just like everyone else.
Dear Dr. Weiss,
Today’s world (21st century-year 2017)is incomparably more complex and unimaginably more dangerous than yesterday’s world (20th century-year 1938). Those who happen to know history, no matter how little or superficially , would certainly agree.
Comparing apples to bananas doesn’t make sense!
So a direct answer to your question ,quite frankly, is simply not applicable.
THAT SAID however, and trying hard to pragmatically hypothesize a stable and relatively safe world scenario I would suggest a NEW YALTA as a visionary blueprint where CHINA would replace the defunct English Empire in a planet partition.
The related “spheres of influence†would ROUGHLY be the following:
1)The . U.S.A. : The American Hemispheres
2)RUSSIA: The whole of Europe
3)CHINA :Most of Asia
All the other countries including those of the African Continent would inevitably fall in line in a peaceful way under one of the aforementioned three superpowers because they would have no real choice or alternative.
Thus WOULD PEACE FINALLY BE WON.
Am I daydreaming? Of course I am ! But hey, allow me to do that for once in a lifetime!
PEACE is too important an issue not to wish it to the world!
Most ironically nevertheless , the human animal being……. the human animal , PEACE would not last anyway!!
Luciano Salvati
In order to understand Russia one cannot ignore the history that shaped her. In a span of 129 years Russians fought for her very existence in three devastating wars from armies invading from the West. The 1st was with Napoleon’s invasion of 1812, the 2nd was against Imperial Germany in 1914 in WWI and 27 years latter against Hitler in WWII. With the talk of accepting Ukraine application into NATO, there would be the possibility of having NATO forces about 300 miles from the heart of Moscow on land that is as flat as the Great Plains. Should we be surprised Moscow’s reaction to NATO’s expansion into eastern Europe? Crimea became part of the Russian Empire in 1783 and remained Russian until 1954 when Khrushchev redrew the map and gave the Crimea to Ukraine. In WWII tens of thousands of Soviet soldiers were killed in Crimea 1st in 1941 when the Nazi’s invaded and again in 1944 when the Soviets forces retook Crimea. Should we be surprised that the average Russians consider the Crimea as being part of Russia?
I believe that hardliners on both sides would like to go back to the days of the Cold War where both sides viewed the other as the enemy and so far it seems that the hardliners are winning. Vladimir Putin is no fool and does not want a conflict with the West but as the current rhetoric from both sides heat up there is a possibility an incident in Syria or in the Baltic could quickly escalate into an armed conflict. If we ignore Russian history in our dealings with Moscow we do so are our own peril.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans also died in Europe and Asia in WWII. Maybe that is why we now consider those parts of the world to be our property – emotionally, at least. Notice, we never really worry about Africa nor South America.
President Putin acts as a person who is the leader of their country should act – he is first and foremost a Nationalist. As such, he pursues policies that he believes are leading to a greater Russia. Any conflicts or potential conflicts between Russia and other nations is primarily due to Russia’s over-riding desire to pursue their own interests. Think on this: “If the U.S. was not protected by oceans on two sides and allies on the other two sides, would we let nations located 6,000 miles away station troops within 250 miles of our borders”? I think not.
I agree with Theory # 1. Russia should be treated as an ally – but also respected as a people who act in their own best interests. America needs real allies in the world. And meddling in other’s affairs because they don’t meet ‘U.S. standards’ is arrogant, hypocritical, and counterproductive towards furthering U.S. interests – (witness our meddling in deposing Saddam Hussein, Qadafi, and others in the Middle East. Yes, they were tyrants, but they kept the terrorists occupied over there. Now we have them here. Nice going, guys! By taking America to the Middle East, now the terrorists are in America.)
Perhaps when the U.S. has spilled as much blood as Russia – who lost 30 Million dead in WW II alone – Americans will not be so keen to oversee world affairs.
Putin, the old Communist apparatchik, has also moved Russia sharply to the right, which American leftists hate.
During WW II, aid was provided through Lend Lease, not land lease.
Theory #1 is the only sensible one. Russia is a natural ally of the U.S., as you pointed out that it was before the Communist takeover—which, by the way, was supported and funded by certain European and U.S. bankers. Russia was devastated by the Soviets for 70 yrs., so Putin is simply trying to restore its former greatness. Comparing him to Hitler, as Hillary Clinton did, is absurd! The country is no longer Communist or Soviet and it is my understanding that Russia is re-embracing Christianity.
Russia did not “invade” Crimea, or Ukraine! Our own State Dept., guided by Victoria Nuland spent $5 billion of our money staging a coup which overthrew the elected government of Ukraine, setting up a puppet gov’t controlled by the U.S. The people of Crimea then voted to return to Russia, with 97% in favor. There was no invasion, and the fact that our lying news media keeps repeating it doesn’t make it true. However, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, all based on lies. So who is the real aggressor here? As for Syria, our CIA has been covertly funding and supporting the “rebels” , who actually consist of Al Nusra, Al Qaeda and ISIS, in an attempt to overthrow the Syrian Gov’t.—the very terrorists we are supposed to be fighting!. Putin obviously saw that the only way to stop this and prevent the terrorists from eventually threatening Russia itself was to intervene in support of the Syrian Gov’t. The Russians have now pretty well wiped out ISIS—the U.S.government certainly wasn’t doing it.
All of this anti-Russian hysteria is promoted by the so-called neocons of both the left and right (and that fool McCain is one of them) who seem determined to start a war with Russia—and they are being supported by our corrupt mainstream news media. Frankly, this would be insanity in view of the fact that Russia has a nuclear arsenal equivalent to ours. Do we really want to risk starting a nuclear war which would destroy our civilization? Then the American people had better soon wake up and learn who our real friends and enemies are.
And kick out the leftists, who want the government to control everything, including you, you and you.
Russia is not the real enemy of the American people. Our real enemy is within.
What we are witnessing daily, incessantly, is the steady drumbeat of “state controlled media” (thanks to Reagan’s deregulation and consolidation under Clinton, there are now 6 major media companies, not 90+, all under Washington’s thumb). Our current president is in the fight of his life. He promised to “drain the swamp”, but he is drowning in it instead. That is because he is up against a deeply entrenched and powerful “deep state” machine that is fearful of losing power, fearful of a populist president who cares nothing about American hegemony and the regime toppling wars that benefit the oligarchs that rule us and no one else. They’ve had their way with us since 9/11, using the specter of terror to get their way in the Middle East, hollowing out our economy to the sum of 14 trillion dollars, and they have no intention of stopping.
We are witnessing an attempted coup of a sitting president by elements of government, in the State Department, the CIA, Congress, and media, waged against a president who threatens the “warfare state” and the power and wealth it brings to them and the corporations they serve.
Russia is just a convenient excuse; convenient against the real enemy, Trump, and because the warfare state needs a more credible bogeyman in order to justify the massive warfare industry. Since nuclear armed Russia is more menacing than bands of Arabs riding Toyota pickup trucks with rusty AK-47s in their hands, they get the job.
It is also a battle between leftists, who have been in power in tis country for decades, and rightists, who managed to sneak Trump into the Presidency. Leftists are appalled at such an event.
Does it ever make sense to have a significant enemy? That just makes us waste money on schemes to contain them when we should be letting our creativity move forward. Furthermore promoting Russia as an enemy just allows politicians to control more money and make their attempts to grow the economy and keep themselves in office. We are far better off letting the economy develop as our society evolves and builds it’s own demands rather than politicians forcing their decisions upon society.
I look at Russia as a friend, so I would put them in Category 1.
When I look at the list in category 2 of where we have been on opposite sides, I note that most of these took place on the Russian side of the world. Except for Russia’s direct support of Cuba for over 30 years, all the fighting in proxy wars took place far from us.
I also don’t see the value of the United States acting out aggressively on Russia’s doorstep. While it might be humanitarian at first, it blooms into war. I have been attempting to follow the reasons why the United States is even involved in Syria, and the best excuse I could come away with is because of the large undersea gas field that Qatar and Iran share, and the possibility that it might be a way to wedge Europe away from being slaves to Russia’s natural gas, along with the two proposed routes to Europe both passing through Syria. It gives the impression that the United States is in that war as mercenaries for Europe and our Middle East allies.
I read about all the allegations of Russian influence in last year’s United States presidential election, and it seems ridiculous. The United States effected a coup in Ukraine after they elected a pro-Russian government, and is now claiming that Russia may have directed some propaganda efforts toward our election. It seems like payback to me. The United States is acting as if they should hold all the cards all over the world, yet is acting stupidly with what it has.
I also think Russia and China are both sick about the way the United States has taken over world affairs, and want to find a way out. There are three nations that could effect their powers world-wide, but it would be difficult if two of the three are aligned. The United States has been trying to keep Russia and China apart, while acting on its own at the same time. The United States could probably crush Russia and China individually, but not if they are teamed up against the United States.
If the USA and Russia ever have to go to full war. ..better make plans to exit planet earth. ..am assuming you survive the Armageddon
I agree. Who is destroying the Middle East the US or Russia?
If Andrew Johnson bought Alaska in 1867 that was after, not 5 years before the war between the states
Russia has a population of 147 Million people.
Europe has a population of 740 Million people.
Russia has 4.5 Million people on the Russia /china border
China has 25 Million people on the same border.
Now who is the Big bad Wolf here ?????????????????
Thank God we can remove Trump from office. Sadly, the Russian people are stuck with Mafia Boss Putin. Both care about nothing more than lining their pockets at great cost to their citizens…
Yea. Obama – Clinton will line your own pocket. What a brilliant observation you have made. Bravo!
You must not have ANY money invested in America, aye Comrade?… :(
Russia should be our ally… We should stay out of the mid-east (we no longer need their oil). Let Russia Make the effort to hold the area together and send our troops home. The U.S. needs about 20 years to re-group. If Pres. Trump learns the difference between “free” trade and “fair” trade, the U.S. might get through our current financial problems (crash-to-come). To “Make America Great Again” the U.S. needs every resource it has to look inward, and solve our “at-home” problems. Let Russia handle those in Europe and Africa.
Russia is on the rise and the United States is in decline. Your politics are a gong show, foreign policy is insane and American society is in decline morally. President Trump is continually being blocked by the opposition and his own party. Trump wants to create jobs, get the 41 million people off of food stamps, no more regime change .Sanctions are making Russia stronger by forcing them to be self reliant. Russia is asserting its influence in the middle east with Iran, Syria, Turkey (maybe) and now Iraq. The new will Silk Road will create commerce and understanding between the many different cultures between Asia and Europe. The United States continues on its path of destruction. Cut your military spending by half and you have free health care!
I have read a couple of comments and can draw the following conclusions:
1.The alleged or real offence of Russian leadership is definitely without any controversy kid stuff when compared with the REAL offences of the USA leadership (note I said leadership). The destruction in Iraq, Libya and now Syria is real time evidence that needs no proof that the US leadership has no moral right to accuse Russia. We are all human and wheen cut …we all bleed. Right now, Venezuela is in their cross hairs. God have mercy.
2. The USA and the Russian citizens do not have any issues or beef. It is the New World Order leadership of Obama – Clinton vs. the Putin Nationalists Movement that are fighting each other. The fact that the delusional democrats that believed that the Americans preferred their agenda over BEING AMERICAN got it all wrong with their media allies of CNN and NY Times is evidence that the AVERAGE AMERICAN does not want a one world government . Now having lost the elections, the plan B is to put the heat on Trump. I see Trump getting a second term to put the nail in the coffin of the one world government democrats and their media cronies.
When Russians stop trying to come to America (and for that matter, the rest of the world) and when Americans begin moving to Russia in significant numbers, I will begin to believe that the Democrates have got it wrong.
If you have one dime invested, you should have thanked your lucky stars that Obama was elected (and brought the markets to new highs) after Cheney/bush gave you a 60% loss between 2007-2009…
Also, if you have studied history you should remember the Crash of 1929 (90% loss) and the Great Depression brought to you by Hoover (a Republican) and the Great Recovery brought by FDR (a Democrat) beginning in 1932.
Incidentally, I’m betting it will be proven that the election was stolen (rigged) with help from the Russians (Putin)…..
Common sense says you don’t want to push a man who controls over 7,000 nuclear missiles too far.
On the other hand, you don’t want to back down from any confrontation with Putin as Obama did.
I think President Trump is taking a middle path, not kowtowing to Putin as Obama did, but not giving him whatever Putin wants, such as annexing Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania.
I also think the idea being circulated by the Democrats/liberal media that President Trump or his people colluded with the the Russians to fix the 2016 election is ridiculous.
The American people elected Donald Trump as our President in 2016 all by themselves, without any help from Russia or anybody else, except Hillary Clinton..
.
The Democrats and the liberal media should accept that, and start to work together with the Republicans and our duly elected President to Make America Great Again.
As a German born after the WWII, studied in Berlin during its island situation, working across Asia over 20 years and now living in New Zealand, I would see the Chinese as far more dangerous to the world – so having Trump and Putin seeing eye-to-eye should create more balance in our world.
Did I vote in the US I had just as well voted for Trump as the over liberalization appears the US is over the hill like Rome was at one time – yes, make the US great again, but by fair trade, and better understanding why the trade balance of other countries is (over) positive. As a student of Industrial Engineering I had spent 5 months at the GM Overseas Operations in NY, receiving every weekend another car – from 90km onwards they were mostly rattling somewhere, what you would not find with German cars as they are built for highways w/o speed limits.
The climate in the US is poisoned between Liberals (who seem not to know what Liberalism stands for) and Republicans who have stripped the middle class in the last 20-30 years – many relatives I have on the west coast (4th Generation immigrants, incl one Professor Lady) do refuse to even discuss politics with us as “better not to discuss this between relatives” – whereas we were educated after the WWII to question authorities, and despite what political opinion everybody had we still could have a good party together.
Congratualtion on getting out of East Germany and getting your education….. I stil remember a conversatin one day on a Rhine River Cruise with some engineers from Bonn, as Germany was negotiating with Russia to buy back East Germany. My question was about the work mentality of the Germans living in the East. Their response was that “We will teach them how to be Germans again”! And how right they were!…. :)
Congratulatins on finding your way to New Zealand! What a beautiful country and people, aye?….. :)
Thank you for an extremely well structured paper on Russia / US relations.
Any one of the 3 theories could end up coming true.
My understanding is that Theory #1 is the most accurate. Mutual respect and co-operation on the big issues seems to dominate over petty squabbles at the coal face.
Thanks,
Chris Kruyshaar
True experience is the best teacher
As usual the brainwashing of the fully communistic years comes to the fore. No one realizes that todays Russia is not that of yesteryear… Neither do they realize the immense profitability of the USA & Russia working together can brong to both countries. Needless to say, the same applies to US/Russia/Chinarelations. People just are the cooperative species they claim to be & prefer, like Michael Kazachkov above, to carry the rhetoric of ant-Russia advocates around in their tiny minds & cannt look or even see the Russia of today, struggling as she is to make ends meet, but ever the great nation who survived the pre-WWII Jewish Bolshevik onslaught. [check your history books for verification of the latter].
Apologies for all my typos… nevertheless, the truth will out! In yur write-up you neglect to state that the Crimean citizens officially requested Russian assistance & voted to remain with Russia, not Ukraine. It’s of no use not to tell the whole story & only present that which suits your own hidden agenda. As stated above, ‘people are NOT the cooperative species they claim to be’ pardon the omission of “not” above. Im think I’ll most likely be the voice in the wilderness in this one… Cheers folks!
Lacking the most vital natural resource of sunshine, the main northern part of Russia through the ages is shaped by this lack of sunshine to survive unimaginable bitter cold winters, resulting in a hardy and somewhat hard-bitten people, who have a propensity to invade and expand specially southwards. Neither Napoleon’s army, nor the German army commanders imagined how cold Russian winters could be, and they were unprepared for Russian winters, and defeated by the Russian “General Winter.” Being hard-bitten by the cold climate, they need to rule with an iron fist, as survival in such cold climate is serious business. Severe winters can wipe out live stocks, and crops, cause southward raids like another group the Vikings raiding British isles, the Mongols and Siberians raiding south across the Great Wall, and Russian tzars invading south. There seems to be this ingrained Russian cultural tendency to expand south, and in any other direction. After the Soviet Communists took over Russia, they formed the Communist International branch to expand globally through out the whole Earth. This is putting their expansionistic tendencies on steroids. When the Red Army over ran Eastern Europe on its way to Berlin, the Soviets decided to make an unwelcome stay in Eastern Europe. For a time, this globalization effect was very successful, as around half of the population of the Earth came under Soviet domination, or became associated with the Soviets, until Soviet Russia realized that globalization often short change the common people of the home country. When the Soviets controlled or became masters of around half the population of the Earth, they found that there were a lot of poor and under fed people they became responsible for, and there myriad of poor and hungry people of the Earth looked toward Soviet Russia for hand outs. While Cuba got a lot of assistance from Russia, while the common Russian spent a lot of time on lines to buy bread. It is like the current globalization trend in the US, where the supper rich make out like bandits, while many common US citizens, millions perhaps, have to wait on unemployment lines. The Soviets had second thoughts on globalization, and changed course. Lacking enough sunshine, Russia depended on exporting its vast oil reserves. Even during the cold war period, Russia exported its oil to the West to make money. Russia still depend greatly in oil and natural gas exports. However, the future may look very bleak for major oil exporters, as earlier this year, 2017, the university lab at Texas, USA of Professor John Goodenough, who is the co-inventor of the current widely used lithium ion batter, announced a new scientific paper on glass-batteries based on senior researcher Helena Braggar’s glass-battery work. Although still early, and just out of the university lab, the new glass-battery holds at least 3 times the charge of the current lithium batters, can be recharged in minutes instead of hours, can be charged many more times, does not catch fire, and potentially cheaper as it can use sodium (i.e. table salt) instead of the more expansive lithium and cobalt. There is a website that saids the besides the 3 time more charge, in the lab, there are test examples using various variations of chemicals that can hold 5, 10, and even in one test example 30 times more charge. 3 times more charge means that a current 200 mile-rated electric car can go 600 miles on a single charge. At 5x, 1000 miles. At 10x, 2,000 miles. At 30x, a mind boggling 6,000 miles on a single charge. At the higher numbers, the electric car will become vastly superior to gasoline cars, and the potential exists that gasoline cars will become obsoleted. This will severely and negatively impact the economies of oil producing countries, and oil producing states in the US. If the 10x to 30x numbers can be achieve in commercial scale production, electricity becomes “transportable” rather than having to be transmitted through the wires of transmission lines. Oil tankers, railroad freight cars, and trucks can be equipped with these super high capacity glass-batteries, and they can ship electricity across oceans, contents, and everywhere without needing transmission lines. This may severely reduce the use of natural gas, as well as oil. The economies of many oil, and natural gas producing countries may collapse, if this happens. How these countries try to survive is anybodies guess.
Russia fears the United States, and with good reason. This country possesses the world’s TWO largest air forces (USAF and Navy), the most powerful navy, and the most modern army (though it has lost much of its power through being frittered away on various “police” actions). And our politicians curry favor with voters via various actions contrary to the interests of other nations outside our “IN” group, including especially Russia and China. Our left leaning politicians especially don’t like that Trump’s election marks a turn toward the right by voters, joining Russia, which has moved to the right under Putin.
Notice, I don’t say that is necessarily a GOOD thing.
Come on… Let’s get to the core. One can view the video done by former defense minister of Canada, Paul Hellyer, for example, and see what’s behind this, and all wars, the monetary system, and the tragic world we live in… CABAL!!… Elitists, Illuminati, Globalists, secret societies — whatever one calls them. This is what is behind the media, Hollywood, the money system, and tensions throughout the world!!… Period…
Since we are making up our own narratives now days, I’d rather we go with the first. Like Trump say’s, why would we want to be enemies? Being their friends is a good thing and could really help bring peace and stability back into the world. Also, don’t ignore China. They are just as much a power as Russia. Iran however, is a threat to the world and all three powers should work together in removing that threat.
OBAMA SENT A PLANE LOAD OF CASH TO IRAN. NO COMPLAINTS FROM THE MEDIA & NO INVESTIGATION BY F.B.I OR CONGRESS. HILLARY GAVE A RESET BUTTON TO RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ,NO INVESTIGATION BY CONGRESS OR THE F.B.I .IT SEEMS THAT EVERY THING TRUMP DOES OR SAYS IS USED AGAINST HIM BY THE MEDIA OR ANOTHER INVESTIGATION IS STARTED. NOTHING WAS EVER SAID AGAINST OBAMA IN THE MEDIA, EVEN WHEN OBAMA TOLD THE RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR WHEN I GET REELECTED I WILL HAVE MORE POWER. MCCAIN & GRAHAM ARE WAR MONGERS. IF YOU ARE AGAINST TRUMP, WAIT 3 YEARS & VOTE HIM OUT. BILL
If you are going to preach History, please get your facts straight. During the Russian Revolution 13,000 American troops invaded Russia, in Vladivostok and Archangel. Please check Wikipedia to refresh your memory.
China is Number One, Russia Number Two as I see the future.
Don’t trust, verify.
I like the Russians and hope for better relations between our countries someday. Time will tell.
Which Russia theory? None and all of them.
Rather, as long as they are strong enough, all groups of homo sapiens are forever striving for dominance. Alliances are built and discarded , whatever works best. And “core values” are only maintained as long as the dominant power behind them is able to enforce them. “Civilization” seems to be a very thin veneer.:
While I should hate to be a Russian citizen, I cannot fault Putin in his quest to “make Russia great” again just as our President intends to do for the US. It’s a three-country struggle, the third being China, of course, for the leadership of the world. Looking at the deplorable state of the West, I’d be fatalistic were it not for Jon Markman’s reports on innovations and the likely emergence of a new type of man, to whom we will appear like to us the Neanderthal people. I’m glad you have him among your collaborators. Whenever I have finished reading his latest contribution, I’m reminded of my father, who – on his deathbed in the late 1970s after discussing science and the state of the world – ended with: “It’s all so INTERESTING.”
Amen! And to you, Dr. Weiss, MY HEARTFELT T H A N K S !. Heidi Meyer-Bahlburg.
The so-called Freemasons or goyim in the NWO have always acted as though this group or that group had to be taken down with war after war over time with the primary goal of enforcing more supreme dictatorial power over the masses. All history books are politically correct so that the vicious winners get off free and the victims pay for the war they lost. Huge amounts of brainwashing using real slick protocols bend the minds of the pre-planned future victims are not even aware of the sneaky and vicious lies being unloaded on them. In WW-II, the Top Circle of Friends were Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin. The US and the UK handed over vast amount of US$$ and UK Lbs to Hitler and Stalin, even though Hitler was the intended loser. HW Bush’s daddy was the money bag handler for Roosevelt. UK’s MI6 was Churchill’s agent. Off to the side was the Pope in the Vatican and the bank there.
Russia is enemy #1!!!!!!
How do you compare what we have done in invading and destabilizing Iraq, Libya and now Syria with Russia taking back Crimea and eastern Ukraine? Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine were formerly Russian and border Russia. Would Russia want NATO bases on their border? What is our excuse for invading the Middle East as these countries posed no threat to the US and are half way around the globe from the US. Bush knew there were no WMDs in Iraq but yet we invaded and destroyed this country killing over 1 million civilians and causing over a million refugees to flee Iraq and Syria. Our military and defense budget is 600 billion and Russia’s is 66 billion. Why are we looked upon as the knights in shining armor and Russia as the evil empire? I don’t get it.
Ray
I do not know if I totally agree with any of the 3 positions. I do not feel that Russia is being treated fairly in any of your positions. See my remarks in the above.
Ray
I GUESS MOST PEOPLE DON’T KNOW THAT OBAMA GAVE OUR MONEY TO HELP PREVENT THE ISRAEL PRIME MINISTER FROM BEING REELECTED. IF YOU THINK WE DON’T GET INVOLVED IN OTHER COUNTRIES ELECTION, I HAVE A BRIDGE FOR SALE. THE STUPID REPUBLICANS SENT MEANY BILLS TO OBAMA TO RID US FROM OBAMA CARE & NEVER HAD A NEW HEALTH PLAN. CLEAN THE SWAMP.>>>>> BILL
The point is that USA is ruled by fascist, murderers, torturers, imperialists, …that is known as “Deep State”.
The establishment hoped that Hillary Clinton would win and start at least a dangerous new cold war.
Since Trump intended to establish a friendly relations with Russia the deep state and its functionaries in the media created the “Russian Gate”.
When you have people I’m this country who seek war, neocons. Then America builds missle pads in satellite countries aimed at Russia. It is hard to trust any dialogue coming from America. Other wise, I feel Russia wants peace. They build the trans, train, pipe line, internet connection from Being to Europe. Europe sees much prosperity there and this threatens our bond. Syria. We got on the wrong side of that skirmish. Supporting extremists of course oil plays into this also. Pipe line from Saudis to Europe through Syria which lowers price for Russian oil in trans pipe line. So the present leader of stress Syria says no pipe line.
Yes, I think it wise to sit down and address these issues and the extremists in America, neocons need to take a back sit. Many in that sphere believe in one world order and of course America on top. Not exactly appreciating other countries values and sovereignty.
This was an excellent article, but I mistakenly deleted it before finishing it. Could you please send me another copy?
Thank you,
Robert Belton
Russia is not the evil monster the U.S. media makes them out to be.
The Russian people have more in common with the U.S. than the Chinese.
Putin was forced to make a decision in the Ukraine due to U.S. and EU meddling.
Trump and Putin are correct when they point out supplying arms to the “Syrian Rebels” is basically supporting the terrorists.
The U.S. exports by far more arms than any other country, and they are sold to competing countries i.e. promoting conflict.
Interesting article regarding US sanctions on Russia:
The Laughing Gas War
There are many ways to kill one’s enemies: nuke them, bomb them with conventional weapons, make them fight each other in a civil war, starve them out using blockades and sanctions, undermine their economies through market manipulation and so on. Or, failing all that, you can try to make them bust a gut laughing. Previous attempts by the US to destroy Russia have failed. The use of nukes against Russia would reliably result in the US becoming annihilated in about 30 minutes. Conventional weapons wouldn’t make much of a difference unless the US staged a land invasion, and invading Russia has always been and remains to this day an act of suicidal stupidity. American attempts at isolating Russia internationally have failed. Sanctions imposed on Russia have caused little damage the Russian economy, which is continuing to boom. With no other options left, it would appear that the Washingtonians have decided to resort to the one and only trick still available to them: to resort to antics that might make Russia collapse from laughing too hard.
The Washingtonians’ clown act involves pretending, in all seriousness, that they are going to stop Russia from supplying Europe with natural gas and to take over this market themselves, which they plan to supply with their liquefied natural gas exports obtained through fracking. (Conventional natural gas resources in the US have peaked and shale gas obtainable through fracking is all that is left.)
Importing liquefied gas across oceans via tankers when the same product is available on the same continent via pipelines is a dumb idea on every level: cost, risk, reliability, technological complexity and, last but not least, energy efficiency because shipping gas is a waste of energy. Undaunted, the US Congress has just ignited an intercontinental gas war by imposing new sanctions on Russia and, incidentally, on any European company eager to ensure Europe’s energy security by working together with Russia’s energy sector. The US is also spending close to $50 billion to convert its existing liquefied natural gas import terminals to export terminals, and has approved plans for over 40 new export terminals and capacity improvements to existing ones.
The Russians, who make it their business to understand the natural gas industry, find this plan laughable. To be sure, not all Russians are laughing. First, there is a large number of Russians—especially those whose job is to “protect the Motherlandâ€â€”who lack any discernible sense of humor, especially when it comes to threats emanating from the US. The latest Washingtonian shenanigans may add some amount of condescension and derision to their innate suspicion and mistrust, but we shouldn’t expect them to even crack a smile. Second, there are Russia’s forlorn pro-Western liberals who have never achieved much of anything politically, but at least they got to clean up on Western grant money while being coached by American diplomats and NGOs on ways to overthrow Putin. They are now plumbing the depths of despair. Lastly, there are all the Americaphobes among the general Russian population, who are forever talking up the American threat to democracy and world peace. It is hard for them to get their point across when everyone is so busy laughing at the ridiculous noise emanating from Washington.
What’s so funny? The humor of this situation needs to be explained carefully because it lies buried under a dense mass of technical details of which American politicians and Western mass media seem blissfully unaware. As usual, explaining a joke often renders it unfunny in the laugh-out-loud sense, but it can remain funny in the sense appreciated by professionals in the field of comedy who are able to declare that something is indeed funny while remaining perfectly serious. If you are an energy business nerd and have the time and the inclination to peruse a detailed and decidedly unfunny analysis of the situation, you should read this excellent article by Arthur Berman. If you are neither an energy business nerd nor a professional comedian and just want to get the joke, then read on.
To recap, the Americans want to sell natural gas to the Europeans, forcing out the Russians. So, what’s the joke? It is the fact that in so doing the Americans, unwittingly, are going for a nonsensical trifecta, along the lines of the classic lazy schoolboy multiple mutually exclusive excuses of
1. he lost his homework;
2. his dog ate it; and
3. he didn’t know it was assigned.
In the case of American gas sales to Europe, the trifecta consists of the following:
1. the Americans will find no buyers for their gas;
2. the Americans can’t afford its production costs; and
3. the Americans have virtually no gas to sell.
The Americans keep repeating to themselves that they have cheap, plentiful natural gas from fracking shale, which they can liquefy at gas export terminals and ship to Europe in gigantic refrigerated tankers, to be turned back into gas at import terminals at the destination. Much of this infrastructure is yet to be built. If it ever gets built, it won’t see much use, because the claims of “cheap†and “plentiful†are hollow.
Currently in the US natural gas is relatively cheap, averaging $4 per million BTUs, and the reason it is cheap is indeed thanks to fracking. But herein lies our first bit of hilarity: during the first quarter of 2017 US energy companies in the shale gas sector have spent $2.12 for every dollar they earned. They have been able to stay in business because industry analysts have consistently misled investors into believing that the large difference between costs and revenues is a “sunk costâ€â€”an investment in future production.
What these analysts have neglected to mention is that production from fracked gas wells declines at a rate of around 30% per year. Do the math: if a fracked gas well produces x during its first year, a 30% annual depletion rate means that it will ultimately produce no more than about 1.5x. Even if the remaining 50% of production were free (which it isn’t) at current prices the investors would still lose around $1.5 for every dollar they earn, giving them a return on their investment of around minus 60%. All of this would indicate that at current, historically normal producing natural gas by fracking shale is a good way to go bankrupt.
Even if US dollars grew on trees (which, in a sense, they do, given the current ultra-low interest rates) and even if shale gas producers could continue to produce at a loss forever, shipping liquefied natural gas would still be a rather expensive proposition—far more expensive than delivering gas via pipelines. It raises the price by about $1.5 per million BTUs—to around $5.5 at current prices. This is 2.5 times more than Russia’s Gazprom currently charges the Europeans—while still managing to make money. Why would the Europeans want to pay $5.5 per million BTUs for American gas when they can buy it from the Russians for around $2.2? We are therefore forced to conclude that American gas is not competitive with Russian gas and will find no buyers in places that are within reach of Russian gas pipelines.
So much for “cheapâ€; how about “plentifulâ€? There is a 10-month lag in production response to price changes. Gas price was high for a time, justifying the large investment in drilling for shale gas, but the price fell below $4 by the end of 2014. Ten months later revenue shortfalls had a chance to work their way through the system, curtailing drilling activity while the 30% annual depletion rate decreased output from existing wells, and production growth fell from 4% per year to 1%. At this rate, it would take the US 70 years to double production—which it would have to do in order to displace Gazprom in Europe. Incidentally, 70 years is approximately how long Russia can sustain its current production rate from its proven reserves. For the US to achieve meaningful production increases natural gas prices would have to rise substantially—to at least $6—the level that produced the temporary growth spurt in fracked natural gas back in 2014. But at $6 per million BTUs the Europeans would have to pay $7.5, or close to 3.5 times what the Russians charge. Why would the Europeans ever want to do that?
But quantity is not just a function of price. As mentioned, shale gas wells deplete at around 30% per year, and the production profiles of entire shale gas provinces are a composite of many wells. Exploring and producing a gas province is not like harvesting wheat from a field because particularly promising and productive parts of each province are exploited first. Whatever is left usually turns out to be impossible to produce profitably, at any price, and is abandoned. Because of this dynamic, all of the shale gas provinces in the US except one—Marcellus—have already reached a production plateau, with some already in decline.
Still, a sustained period of high prices could provoke another growth spurt. But the Russians are unlikely to sit idly by and let this happen. If high prices is what it takes for Americans to compete with Russia on volume, what is to stop the Russians from opening up their valves in response to higher prices, bringing them back down and handing the American energy sector another batch of disastrous financial results? American energy industry analysts, who are basically industry cheerleaders and have minimal hindsight and a long and proud history of being continuously wrong in their predictions, will unwittingly assist the Russians in playing this game.
Beyond quantity and price, there is yet another important ingredient to being a successful natural gas exporter: reliability. The only problems the Europeans have ever experienced with the Russian gas supply had to do with political issues centered on the Ukraine: the Ukrainians thought that they could endlessly extort money from Russians for the privilege of using Soviet-era pipelines that run through their territory. The Russians have had enough of such games and are now planning to circumvent the Ukraine using new pipelines, currently being built, that run under the Baltic and the Black Sea. At no point were Russian gas exports supply-constrained or their prices unpredictable. Gazprom negotiates long-term delivery contracts with stable pricing while American liquefied gas has to be purchased on the spot market, where prices fluctuate rapidly. If Europe cares about its energy security, which supplier should it prefer?
At the moment, the Americans prefer to remain in denial about the near-term phase-out of the Ukrainian gas transit route. They have been busily hatching plans to “privatize†(or is it “colonize�) this last bit of Soviet industrial legacy, hoping to profit from it by inserting themselves between the Russian suppliers and the European consumers. The rapid pace at which the new South Stream and Nord Stream pipelines, which circumvent the Ukraine, are being built has clearly taken them by surprise. They don’t like this one bit: this is the last, tentative scrap of potential windfall from their expensive, and failed, political intervention in the Ukraine, and even it is about to fall through.
Without oversimplifying one bit, it is fair to say that the US is not a reliable natural gas supplier. While Russia’s gas supply has held steady, in the US it has whipsawed between gluts and shortages. Each time, American industry analysts have been unable to see beyond the next corner and as a result the industry has consistently planned for situations that have failed to occur.
When gas was expensive and in short supply, the Americans built lots of expensive liquefied natural gas import terminals, which didn’t see much use because as soon as they were completed domestic supply surged. And now that there is a temporary glut from fracking they are wasting money on converting these import terminals into export terminals.
The total planned export capacity is around 75% of total US natural gas production. There is no reason to believe that so large a production surplus will ever exist and so these export terminals will rust away unused just like the import terminals did. Thus, it is clear that the Americans are incapable either of long-term production planning or of supplying their own needs over the long term. Why should the Europeans hitch their fortunes to such an unreliable supplier?
What do you do when a customer refuses to buy a product you don’t have at a price the customer can’t afford? Why, blame Russia, of course, and attempt to impose a fresh set of economic sanctions on it! Russia must stop meddling in American elections, or Europe gets cut off from Russian natural gas! The new sanctions bill just passed by US congress attempts to achieve just that: it claims US jurisdiction over EU energy policy and attempts to force European companies to stop doing business with Russia.
It also seeks to prevent the US president from lifting these sanctions without congressional approval. Unlike just about any other issue before Congress, this legislation had strong bipartisan support. It aims to boost the domestic energy sector and suck money out of Europe, plus it plays the perennially popular trump card of “blaming Russia.†This plan won’t work for the economic and geological reasons listed above. It also won’t work because there is zero chance that the Europeans will stand idly by and let the Americans destroy their energy security. A change is going to come, and it will end with the sound of one hand fracking.
And then there is one more secret ingredient in this special legislative sauce: the whole thing is blatantly illegal. The only place this brain-dead, still-born piece of legislation is headed is the courtroom, both in the US and the EU. In the EU, the extraterritorial nature of this legislation must be addressed because, as a matter of principle, the laws of one nation should have no force on the territory of any other nation. The EU will be forced to draw a line on this vital matter of energy security and reclaim its sovereignty, pushing back against America’s extraterritorial claims.
In the US, legislation that places restrictions on the prerogatives of the executive branch to negotiate international treaties. It is unconstitutional because it violates the principle of separation of powers enshrined in the constitution. It is a matter for the supreme court to resolve—unless, that is, this branch of the US government is by now as defunct as the other two.
The new sanctions bill is just one piece of legislation, but it nicely showcases what has become of the great and fearsome United States, the erstwhile global hegemon. Its government now consists of a president who tweets pathetically but can’t get anything done, a congress that can’t accomplish anything except for passing legislation that violates both domestic and international law. Its national media is stuck in screaming feedback loop of blaming Russia based on zero evidence. Meanwhile, its energy and finance sectors are busy lobbying the government to force foreigners to buy a product it can’t produce at a price they can’t afford. Let’s face it, the country has become a joke!
Do Americans realize that their country has become a joke? There are few signs that they do, and this is where the joke stops being funny. America is ill—mentally ill. Both the Europeans and the Russians, once they stop laughing, will need to come to a certain realization: in dealing with the US, in its current deranged, demented state, they face not so much a nation-state as a nation-sized mental health condition. Be that as it may; there is little doubt that the Europeans and the Russians will continue to work together while allowing this mental patient to convalesce in a padded cell on the other side of the ocean.