 |
The $300 billion Chinese trucking market is filled with long hauls and chaos. The government and technology firms are betting that self-driving 18-wheelers are the solution.
Earlier this month at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, the Internet services company Baidu (BIDU) and Foton Motor Co. Ltd. showed off Super Truck. Apart from its array of sensors and distinctive surround windshield, the autonomous freight truck would not stick out in a crowd of ordinary diesel burners.
That’s because it’s not from the future. China needs an answer to its freight logistics problem now, before the administration of President-elect Donald Trump can intervene. That urgency gives Chinese firms a big leg up in the race to autonomy and patent windfalls.
You would expect a country with China’s economic growth and expansive area to experience problems. There are 7.2 million trucks and 16 million drivers serving 5.9 million square miles of thorny countryside. Many trips involve very long hauls. Some require two or three drivers.
 |
|
Credit: Photo as was provided to chinadaily.com.cn. China’s self-driving Super Truck may soon challenge American autonomous |
It doesn’t take a math whiz to figure out there is an innovation opportunity. Ng Yi Pin, of the Chinese venture capital firm Yunqi Partners, is sanguine. “The economics from labor and fuel-efficient savings are significant,” he says, “so market forces will make it happen.”
Super Truck uses limited self-driving automation developed by Baidu and Foton’s Big Data algorithms for connected cars and driverless commercial fleets. It offers dramatically reduced man hours and fuel consumption. That is definitely something that can be sold to vehicle makers.
“We’ll further collaborate with commercial-vehicle original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to develop self-driving solutions and build typical application scenarios,” said Gu Weihao, general manager of Baidu Intelligent Vehicle. “On the other hand, being one of the pioneers in the industry, we’d like to introduce more self-driving technology providers to participate and grab a piece of the market share.”
That is not great news for competitors outside of China. Daimler, Volvo and Uber all have autonomous systems for trucks in the works. In fact, Otto, a company recently purchased by Uber, used a self-driving truck to deliver 50,000 cans of Budweiser beer in a publicity stunt.
The idea was to prove that the massive, software-guided freighters are safe. The cool Buds served the narrative. It was also supposed to show Silicon Valley was in the lead in the race to autonomy.
|
Clockwork Profits — NOT Guesswork There is a way to free yourself from uncertainty of financial markets. Boris and Kathy have designed a new strategy to help you reap massive profits like clockwork. What’s more, this strategy has the power to make you $74,000 richer by New Year’s Eve. Click this link for more details. |
| Internal Sponsorship |
“The technology is ready to start doing these commercial pilots,” Otto co-founder Lior Ron told Wired in October. “Over the next couple of years, we’ll continue to develop the tech, so it’s actually ready to encounter every condition on the road.”
Self-driving trucks spend most of their time on the interstates. Far away from problematic stuff like pedestrians or Fido running out into traffic. Grabbing a big share of the $700 billion U.S. trucking market seems like a safe bet.
Unfortunately, that was before the Chinese took a shine to the same market. Technologies being developed in China under a more lenient regulatory regime may win patents and get to market in the United States first, despite any attempt by the Trump administration to block them.
I still think the best single bet on autonomous trucks and cars is the chip-maker Nvidia (NVDA), but we need to watch out for the Chinese hardware and software providers as they roll down the road.
Best wishes,
Jon Markman
{ 23 comments }
Great! I hope the idea is sold to Mercedeas Benz. Mike B
So who wants a self driving big rig hauling 48000 pounds of explosives? The truck pictured is an overgrown pickup or a baby u-Haul.
This is great for business bun not for the drivers. They are gone loose there jobs.
Since China does not honor U.S. patents (witness how they treated Microsoft), then we should be under no obligation to respect their patents. Let them develop ,then we can just go ahead and use their technology for free.
well, first of all jon. china ignores our patents and trademarks anytime they want, so why on earth would we feel the need to honor theirs? secondly, i saw the youtube video of the driverless budweiser truck delivering beer in colorado, where the driver sat in the back seat the entire trip. my only question is, does this mean he can drink a beer if he wants? he’s not driving. hmmmmmmmm, i might have to apply for this job. :-)
So who are Nvidia’s Chinese counterparts worth investing in? Mediatek, Techfaith? Worth diversifying on this?
WILL THESE TRUCKS RECOGNIZE BLACK ICE? WILL THEY SPOT DEER HEADING FOR THE HIWAY AS THEY RUN THRU TALL GRASS READY TO JUMP OVER THE FENCE AND ENTER THE INTER-STATE ? WILL THEY RECOGNIZE A TEXTING TEENAGER WEAVING DOWN THE HIWAY ? WILL THE SENSORS BE EFFICIENT IN A DOWNPOUR WITH HEAVY LIGHTNING AND OVERHEAD HIGH VOLTAGE POWER LINES ?
What will be the future for the thousands of
Class A and Class B CDL drivers ?
CDL drivers will see their earnings go
downhill fast .
I think autonomous vehicles are the future, without debate. I wonder if the larger investment opportunity with lie with interconnectivity. Enormous benefits to society might exist when the percentage of vehicle traffic reaches critical mass and are all interconnected. Of course, cyber-warfare needs to be contained first and I am unsure that will ever be possible, 100%.
If their trucks are anything like their tools, they will blow up the first time you use them. Nothing good comes out of China, NOTHING!!!
Wrong, cheap Flat Panels, cheap suits. Even poor people in this country have one or two HD tv’s. We all love our inexpensive toasters, coffee makers, waffle iron, micro wave, you get the picture no pun intended. As Mr Trump said “they are eating out lunch”
They can’t even do it with trains,why think they could with trucks lol
I would hate to call Uber for a ride and get one of the driverless vehicles. Criminals better watch out for these. U can be completely at the mercy of the authorities if they choose to”bring you in”. Lol. Wonder if you can buy stock with gold!!!
It’s also taking jobs away. Really cool concept but I don’t approve.
The biggest issue of consolidation and automation is, how will the lack of full functional employment allow for millions of people without jobs to continue to be productive members of society?
A shorter work week will become the norm.
The U.A.E. already has a fleet of driverless taxis. So what? That doesn’t mean they own all the patents. China will probably have driverless trucks before the U.S. because they don’t care if the trucks run over a few dogs or even a person here or there. Lack of regulation does allow Chinese producers to sell earlier in China, but it will not give them any advantage in the U.S. market.
how will these trucks move over the road with 18 flat tires? One pissed off ex driver and a .22 rifle outside one of these parking lots and the entire company is down for the count….a couple of shots from the bushes at the on ramp in the steer tires…..and if you think it wont happen…well
See what happens when truck drivers get greedy and demand higher wages
A solution to the bottom line will take over,
It is happening with a lot of other careers
There is only one minor problem. The computer program used a real live Chinese driver as a model.
When these trucks kill or maim someone, it will be a gold mine for the legal profession. Sue the company who owns the truck. Sue the manufacture of the truck, Sue the driver, Sue the software companies who wrote the programs. Sue the sensor manufactures. Sue their insurance company stupid enough to insure these death wagons. My son and daughter need to think about becoming lawyers and specializing in this level of litigation. Then it also sounds like easy pickings for the mob. High jack a truck without worrying about having to kill a witness. No, I am not someone living in the 18th century, but this is a gold mine for the legal profession.
That truck in the picture is a cab-over, it will not hold up on a road full of chuck holes. If those trucks are not sitting on a good foundation they will need that autopilot to park them in a safe place along the road when they break down.
What is likely is that the Chinese will produce a truck that works reasonably well. Then a government official will commit billions to build factories to make the components and assemble millions of trucks. However somewhere outside of China someone will develop a truck that runs over less peasants or is better in some other way. China will be stuck with millions of trucks and the factories to make them. That is the way communist countries operate and eventually go broke.